GOLD Analysis

TradingKey - As of Tuesday's Asian session (November 10), gold prices (XAUUSD) edged lower following Monday's sharp rally, falling about 0.56% intraday to trade near $4,120. Gold previously surged nearly 2% on Monday, touching an intraday high of $4,148.71. A decline in international oil prices has eased market concerns over U.S. inflation, but with the imminent release of October CPI data, investors are reassessing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

TradingKey - On Tuesday, November 10, Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), a crucial inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Markets expect headline inflation in October to cool compared to September, driven by a slowdown in gasoline price gains, though core inflation remains somewhat sticky. This data will shape market expectations regarding whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in December and could trigger a new round of market movement across U.S. equities, the U.S. dollar, and gold (XAUUSD).

Bitcoin fell over 9% in a single month, lagging far behind gold. Why does Cathie Wood still expect it to outperform gold?

TradingKey - As of Monday's (November 9) Asian trading session, gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded following a modest pullback last Friday, rising over 1% intraday to touch a high of $4,134.27 and reclaiming the $4,100 threshold. Last Friday, the U.S. October nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations, driving up the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and briefly sending gold down toward the $4,033 level. However, gold logged a cumulative 5% gain last week, marking its largest single-week increase since late August and signaling that the recent rally has not yet fully run its course.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on Friday (November 6), gold prices (XAUUSD) retreated following consecutive rebounds, falling about 0.85% intraday to trade near $4,050. Previously, gold touched $4,147.06 on Thursday, marking a more than two-week high, before paring some of the gains. While the recent softening of the US dollar and declining US Treasury yields have provided support for gold, market focus on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate policy has intensified once again ahead of the upcoming release of the US October non-farm payrolls report.

TradingKey - On Friday, Eastern Time (November 6), the United States will release the October non-farm payrolls report. Current market consensus expects US non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 65,000 in October, up from 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, while month-over-month average hourly earnings growth may rebound from 0.1% to 0.3%. With the Federal Reserve having just paused interest rate hikes at its October meeting and the market still betting on another rate hike in December, whether this jobs report confirms that the US labor market remains resilient will serve as a key variable influencing interest rate expectations and the near-term trajectories of US equities, the US dollar, and gold (XAUUSD).

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on Thursday (November 5), gold prices (XAUUSD) extended yesterday's strong rebound, topping $4,100 intraday and hitting a high of $4,138.06, up more than $70 on the day. Previously, gold surged 3.31% on Wednesday, marking its largest single-day gain since August, peaking at $4,070.62 intraday and successfully reclaiming the $4,000 mark. Following the announcement of the U.S. midterm election results, a noticeable pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields served as the primary driver behind gold's rebound.

TradingKey - On November 4, gold prices (XAUUSD) rose sharply during the Asian trading session. As the Democratic Party won the U.S. midterm elections, the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields weakened in tandem, pushing gold back above $4,000 to reach an intraday high near $4,029. Based on today's low of $3,919.85, the intraday rebound was close to $110.

TradingKey — The US is set to release its October ADP employment report this Wednesday. The market generally expects US private-sector job growth to slow compared to September, with current forecasts predicting an addition of approximately 67,000 to 69,000 jobs, down from 90,000 in September. With the US October non-farm payrolls report also scheduled for release this Friday, this ADP reading will serve as a key leading indicator for the market to assess the latest conditions in the labor market. Particularly following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes at its October meeting, whether employment data remains resilient will influence market expectations regarding another rate hike in December.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on Tuesday (November 3), gold prices (XAUUSD) hovered at elevated levels following a sharp rebound in the previous trading day, last trading around $3,955, up slightly by about 0.25% intraday. Gold had previously dropped to near $3,870 on October 30, hitting a one-year low, before surging over 2% on November 2. While a sharp pullback in oil prices eased market concerns over U.S. inflation, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains high, leaving the short-term outlook for gold under continued test.