Fed May Resume Rate Hikes in September: Full Analysis of Warsh’s Hawkish Debut, Are US Stocks a Risk or Opportunity in the Second Half
At the inaugural FOMC meeting chaired by the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the median dot plot shifted directly from rate-cut expectations to rate-hike expectations. Interest rate futures immediately priced in a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike in September, plunging the market into a rate-hike panic. This article argues that the market is highly likely overestimating the intensity of this rate-hike cycle. Even if rate hikes do resume in September, the move would fundamentally represent a robust tightening characterized by "withdrawing insurance rate cuts against the backdrop of a still-resilient economy," which is fundamentally different from the panic-driven tightening of 2022. For long-term investors in US equities, this shift presents opportunities that outweigh the risks. However, this assessment is conditional and must be dynamically adjusted using three indicators as anchors: core inflation, long-term inflation expectations, and the unemployment rate.
TradingKeyThu, Jun 25
