리퍼블릭 서비시스(RSG) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콜: 환경 솔루션 부문 성장에 따른 가이던스 상향

핵심 요약

• 리퍼블릭 서비시스는 3분기 매출 성장률 8.2%, 조정 EBITDA 성장률 4.8%, 조정 EPS 1.94달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다. 연초 대비 조정 잉여현금흐름은 22억 8,000만 달러에 달했습니다.
• 관련 매출 기준 핵심 가격 인상률은 6.3%였으며, 평균 수익률(yield)은 3.5%로 내부 비용 인플레이션을 상회하는 수준을 유지했습니다. 상승한 연료 회수 수수료를 포함한 가격 인상률은 8%를 초과했습니다.
• 환경 솔루션(Environmental Solutions) 부문의 자체 매출은 21% 증가하여 전체 회사 매출 성장률에 2.1%포인트 기여했습니다. 몇몇 대형 긴급 대응 프로젝트를 제외하면 해당 부문 매출은 약 9% 성장했습니다.
• 환경 솔루션 부문의 조정 EBITDA 마진은 440bp 확장된 25.4%를 기록했습니다. 디젤 비용 상승, 전년도 매립지 이벤트 물량, 높은 의료비 부담에도 불구하고 전체 회사 조정 EBITDA 마진은 31.8%를 기록했습니다.
• 경영진은 2026년 실적 전망(가이던스)을 매출 174억 2,500만 달러~174억 7,500만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 55억 달러~55억 7,500만 달러, 조정 잉여현금흐름 25억 6,500만 달러~25억 8,500만 달러로 상향 조정했습니다.
• 경영진은 2027년에도 장기 성장 프레임워크가 유효하게 유지될 것으로 예상하며, 한 자릿수 중반의 매출 성장과 연간 30~50bp의 조정 EBITDA 마진 확장을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 성과

소형 및 대형 컨테이너 물량이 각각 0.5% 증가했습니다. 경영진은 두 사업 분야가 동시에 플러스 물량 성장을 기록한 것은 3년 만에 처음이라고 밝혔습니다. 특수 폐기물 매출은 6.4% 증가했습니다.

주거용 물량은 주로 지자체 계약 해지와 건설, 해체, 토사 매립 물량 감소로 인해 4.3% 감소했습니다. 경영진은 계약 해지 결정이 전년도에 이루어진 것이며, 2027년에는 주거용 물량 감소폭이 약 2% 수준으로 개선될 것으로 전망했습니다.

환경 솔루션 부문의 성장은 지정폐기물 매립지, 탐사 및 생산 물량, 처리·보관·처분 시설, 현장 및 산업 서비스 전반에 걸쳐 광범위하게 나타났습니다. 경영진은 이러한 실적 개선이 견조한 산업 활동, 리쇼어링, 반도체·데이터센터 및 기타 기술 인프라 투자와 연계되어 있다고 설명했습니다.

재활용 원자재 가격은 톤당 평균 142달러로 전년 동기의 톤당 126달러에서 상승했습니다. 폴리머 센터 물량 증가와 원자재 가격 상승에 힘입어 재활용 처리 및 원자재 판매액은 1,500만 달러 증가했습니다.

리퍼블릭 서비시스는 사업 전반에 AI 기반 가격 책정 기술을 도입했습니다. AI 기반 경로 최적화 플랫폼은 2027년 초부터 본격적으로 확대 적용될 예정입니다. 경영진은 2028년 말까지 디지털 이니셔티브를 통해 1억 달러 규모의 런레이트 EBITDA 개선 효과를 거두는 것을 목표로 삼고 있습니다.

회사는 3분기까지 인수합병(M&A)에 11억 달러를 투자했으며 2026년 전체로는 최소 12억 달러를 예상하고 있습니다. 경영진은 재활용·폐기물 및 환경 솔루션 부문 전반에서 인수 파이프라인이 여전히 활발하며, 중소형 보충적 인수가 계속 핵심 주력 분야가 될 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 매출 가이던스 상향분의 대부분이 디젤 가격 상승에 따른 연료 회수 수수료 증가를 반영한 것이라고 밝혔습니다. 7월 전망치 대비 매출 가이던스 중간값은 약 2억 달러 증가했으며, 이 중 연료 수수료가 약 1억 5,000만 달러, 환경 솔루션 부문이 약 5,000만 달러를 차지했습니다.

조정 EBITDA 중간값은 약 2,500만 달러 증가했습니다. 경영진은 연료 수수료 회수에서 약 1,000만 달러, 환경 솔루션 부문에서 약 1,500만 달러가 기여했다고 설명했습니다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 공식 가이던스를 제시하지 않았습니다. 경영진의 초기 견해는 장기 프레임워크가 유지된다는 것입니다. 즉, 한 자릿수 중반의 매출 성장, EBITDA·EPS·잉여현금흐름의 더 빠른 성장, 연간 30~50bp의 조정 EBITDA 마진 확장을 기대하고 있습니다. 구체적인 2027년 가이던스는 2월 실적 발표 전화회의에서 공개될 예정입니다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 항목

• 높은 디젤 비용으로 인해 3분기 조정 EBITDA 마진이 순기준 50bp 감소했습니다. 경영진은 실적 발표 당시 갤런당 약 6.35달러 수준이었던 디젤 가격이 연말까지 갤런당 6달러 선으로 하향 안정화될 것으로 예상했습니다.
• 전년도 매립지 이벤트 물량으로 인해 물량 측면에서 90bp의 역풍이 발생했으며, 조정 EBITDA 마진은 40bp 감소했습니다.
• 의료비용 증가는 마진을 60bp 감소시켰으며, 이 중 20bp는 전년도 리베이트 비반복에 따른 것이고 40bp는 이례적으로 큰 청구 건에서 기인했습니다. 10월 들어 청구 활동은 다시 정상 수준으로 돌아왔습니다.
• 환경 솔루션 부문 실적은 대형 긴급 대응 프로젝트 및 사업 믹스가 매출과 한계 마진에 영향을 미치기 때문에 분기별로 변동될 수 있습니다.
• 경영진은 지정학적 불확실성과 AI 관련 대규모 투자 주기를 언급하면서도, 거시경제 환경이 우호적으로 유지될 경우 2027년 플러스 물량 성장을 기대하고 있습니다.
• 주택 시장은 단기 및 중기적인 제약 요인으로 남아 있습니다. 직접적인 건설 관련 활동은 전체 매출의 약 6%~7%를 차지합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 신규 고객과 더 높은 서비스 수준의 계약이 일반적으로 포트폴리오의 평균 요율보다 낮게 진입하기 때문에, 물량 개선이 보고된 수익률(yield)을 희석시킬 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 하지만 이러한 단위 물량은 여전히 수익성이 있으며 마진 확장을 뒷받침할 것으로 기대됩니다.

대형 긴급 대응 작업을 제외한 환경 솔루션 부문의 9% 성장은 가격과 물량 모두 반영된 결과입니다. 경영진은 분기별 실적이 프로젝트 및 서비스 믹스에 크게 좌우되겠지만, 시간 경과에 따라 해당 부문의 마진이 확대될 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

가격 책정과 관련해 경영진은 고객 수용성이 긍정적으로 유지되고 있다고 밝혔습니다. AI 기반 도구는 단기적인 가격 극대화보다는 지불 능력, 고객 생애 가치 및 고객 유지를 조화롭게 맞추는 데 도움을 주고 있습니다.

경영진은 고객 서비스 디지털화가 2027년에 더 가시적인 성과를 낼 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 경로 최적화는 가장 큰 디지털 기회 요인이며, 2027년 말 일부 효과에 이어 2028년에 본격적인 영향이 나타날 것으로 예상됩니다.

회사는 거시경제 조건이 안정적으로 유지된다면 2027년에 업계 전반의 물량이 증가할 것으로 예상합니다. 경영진은 이번 회복이 급격한 가속보다는 완만한 형태가 될 것으로 진단했습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Republic Services Third Quarter 2026 Investor Conference Call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Weeks, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

John Weeks

Good afternoon. I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are on the call today to discuss our performance.

I'd like to take a moment to remind everyone that some information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, including forward-looking financial information, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time sensitive. If in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is October 29, 2026. Please note that this call is the property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent Republic Services is strictly prohibited.

Our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with a recording of this call, are available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. In addition, Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates, times and presentations are posted on our investor website.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

Jon Vander Ark

Thanks, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered another strong quarter of results, driven by disciplined pricing and improving volume trends, while successfully overcoming elevated diesel fuel costs. Positive momentum across the business included profitable growth in Environmental Solutions, underscores the strength and resilience of our business model and our ability to capitalize on improving macro economic trends. Our results reflect our continued focus on pricing ahead of cost inflation and effective cost management while making strategic investments that strengthen our competitive advantages and position us to deliver sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value.

During the quarter, we achieved revenue growth of 8.2%, increased adjusted EBITDA, 4.8%, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.94 and generated year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $2.28 billion. With respect to customer deal, our commitment to deliver world-class essential services continues to drive organic growth and strengthen customer satisfaction. Customer retention remained high at more than 94%. Customers value the quality and breadth of our services, which extends continued loyalty and supports our ability to earn attractive returns for the value of the services we provide. Strong pricing across the business remained the primary driver of organic revenue growth during the third quarter.

Core price on related revenues was 6.3%, which was relatively consistent with our second quarter performance. Combined with higher fuel recovery fees, the price increase was over 8%. Average yield on related revenues is 3.5% and continue to exceed our internal cost inflation. The sequential moderation in average yield was primarily due to better-than-expected volumes in our small and large container businesses, which included an increase [indiscernible] levels.

Service increases are profitable and increased route density, but typically have a dilutive impact on average yield. Organic volume decreased 70 basis points on related revenue and were positive 20 basis points after adjusting for onetime landfill event volumes received in the prior year. Importantly, volume in both small and large container businesses increased 50 basis points. This marks the first time in more than 3 years that both businesses generated positive [indiscernible] at the same time.

Organic revenue in the Environmental Solutions business increased 21% compared to the prior year and contributed 2.1% to total company revenue growth in the third quarter. Revenue growth in this business was driven by a few large emergency response jobs. Revenue grew in this segment by approximately 9%, excluding these jobs. We continue to see strong demand for our Environmental Solutions customers and expect positive revenue growth to continue through the rest of the year and into 2027.

Turning to digital. We continue to advance our technology and AI initiatives to improve pricing effectiveness extend customer retention and increase labor productivity. AI-enabled pricing technology is now deployed across the business, providing enhanced insights to support pricing decisions that reflect service requirements and market conditions. These enhanced capabilities are designed to better reflect customer needs and support long-term revenue retention. We continue to pilot our new AI-enhanced routing platform to improve service execution gain route efficiencies and reduce disposal costs. This new technology combines AI capabilities with advanced routing algorithms to optimize every aspect of our routing logistics. Full scale deployment is expected to begin early next year.

And with respect to our call centers, digital tools are transforming how we manage 11 million inbound calls each year. We believe that, over time, more than half of these calls can be eliminated or handled through a lower-cost channel. This enables faster resolution and a more seamless customer experience.

Moving on to sustainability. Construction of our third polymer center in Allentown, Pennsylvania remains on track with commissioning planned for early next year. Our renewable natural gas projects with our partners continue to make progress. We are on track to complete 2 additional RNG projects by year-end, which will bring the total project additions for the year 4. We continue to electrify our fleet.

During the quarter, we launched Florida's first fully electric residential recycling and waste collection fleet in the city of Coconut Creek. We ended the third quarter with more than 280 electric collection vehicles in operation across our business. We remain on track to finish the year with more than 300 EV trucks as we continue to grow this differentiated offering. We strive to be the employer where the best people want to work. Employee engagement remains high and turnover is at a record low. We were recently named 1 of 3 BL's 100 Best Corporate Citizens and earned Great Place to Work certification for the tenth consecutive year.

With respect to capital allocation, we invested $1.1 billion in value-creating acquisitions so far this year. We expect to finish 2026 with at least $1.2 billion in acquisition investments. Looking ahead, our acquisition pipeline remains active across both Recycling and Waste and Environmental Solutions. Year-to-date, we returned $1.43 billion to shareholders including $884 million of share repurchases and $577 million of dividends.

I will now turn the call over to Brian, who will provide more details on the quarter.

Brian Delghiaccio

Thanks, Jon. Core price on total revenue was 5.3%. Core price on related revenue was 6.3%, which included open market pricing of 7.6% and restricted pricing of 4.1%. The components of core price on related revenue included small container of 8%, large container of 7% and residential of 5.8%. Average yield on total revenue was 2.9% and average yield on related revenue was 3.5%. The 50 basis point sequential decline in yield on related revenue was primarily driven by increased unit growth in our small and large container businesses. Fuel recovery fees increased total revenue by 1.8%, which offset higher fuel expense and related surcharges. Third quarter volume decreased total revenue by 60 basis points and related revenue by 70 basis points. The decline was driven by a 90 basis point headwind from event-driven landfill volumes received in the prior year.

The rest of the business increased 20 basis points on a year-over-year basis. The details of volume performance during the quarter included a 50 basis point increase in small container volume driven by net new business and increased service levels by our same-store customers, a 50 basis point increase in large container volume, primarily due to increased service levels and a 6.4% increase in special waste revenue. This was more than offset by residential volume, which declined 4.3%, primarily due to certain municipal contract losses and reduction in construction and demolition and fill volume which related to the previously mentioned event work in the prior year.

Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $142 per ton during the third quarter, compared with $126 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales increased $15 million during the quarter, driven by higher polymer center volumes and recycled commodity prices.

With respect to Environmental Solutions, third quarter revenue increased $96 million compared to the prior year. Environmental Solutions revenue increased 21% compared to same-store revenue in the prior year and contributed 2.1% to total company revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the Environmental Solutions business was 25.4% which represented 440 basis points of margin expansion compared to the prior year. Total company adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.8%. Margin performance during the quarter included a 50 basis point decrease from net fuel, a 40 basis point decrease from landfill event volumes received in the prior year and a 60 basis point decrease from elevated health care costs. This was comprised of 20 basis points from a prior year rebate that did not repeat and 40 basis points from above-average large claims activity. Healthcare claims activity returned to more normal levels in the month of October.

The rest of the business expanded margin by 50 basis points, which was in line with our expectations. Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $2.28 billion, driven primarily by EBITDA growth in the business. Total debt was approximately $14.2 billion and total liquidity was $2.3 billion. We ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of approximately 2.6x. With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and impact from equity investments in renewable energy resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 21.7% during the quarter. For the full year, we expect an equivalent tax impact of approximately 24%.

I will now turn the call back over to Jon.

Jon Vander Ark

Thanks, Brian. Based on results to date and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we updated our full year 2026 financial guidance as follows: Revenue is now expected to be in the range of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $5.5 billion to $5.575 billion and adjusted free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $2.565 billion to $2.585 billion. Most of the revenue increase is due to higher fuel recovery fees related to elevated diesel fuel costs. As a reminder, our fee recovery program is designed to offset the cash impact of changing diesel costs and is dilutive to margin when fuel costs are increasing.

As we look to the year ahead, we remain confident in our ability to execute in a dynamic market and are encouraged by the momentum building across the business. We are still in the middle of our planning process and our initial perspective regarding 2027 is that our long-term growth algorithm is intact. This calls for consistently delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth while growing EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow even faster than revenue. This is designed to drive 30 to 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion. Our perspective is supported by continued disciplined pricing, improving volume trends and the momentum building in Environmental Solutions business. Benefits from investments in digital capabilities and sustainability innovation should further support profitable growth and continued value creation. We plan to provide 2027 guidance on our earnings call in February.

With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from Sabahat Khan with RBC Capital Markets.

질의응답

Sabahat Khan

Great. I'm hoping you can provide a little bit more color on the ES segment and the evolution there. I think last quarter, you alluded to sort of the incremental getting better and some upside momentum through H2. Maybe just talk about materialized through Q3 in that silo on the top line and the margin progression and sort of what's embedded for Q4? Thanks.

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. I think we talked about at the outset of the year that the first half was going to be tougher, and we saw an inflection point and momentum into the second half of the year, and that's what we're seeing. And we're calling that shop because the sales pipeline was building and we saw a number of jobs that were confirmed, but hadn't started yet. And we saw a lot of that momentum [indiscernible]. Obviously, there were a couple of big ER jobs that helped create an outsized outcome. But I think we mentioned you strip that away, we're still up 9%. And so a very broad-based growth geographically and across verticals. So I think it's a function of the underlying industrial economy continuing to improve. And then I think our team executing at a high level.

Sabahat Khan

Great. And then just for a follow-up, the commentary around volumes getting a little bit better, not asking for guidance on '27. But as you think about the mid-single digits, do you expect at least year-over-year volume trends just sort of across your platform based on what you're seeing that to be a bit more positive sequentially. Just maybe if you can break out some of the puts and takes you're seeing on the volume front across your business.

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. I think the industry -- second waste is coming out of a 4-year period of really negative growth. And Environmental Solutions is coming out of an 18-month period where I think it was kind of hit an air pocket in volume. I think both markets are now trending in a good direction. I think recycling and waste will tip the positive growth in 2027 across the industry, and we'll certainly try to match that or do a little better than that performance and Environmental Solutions will be on a nice growth trajectory.

And again, we'll try to match market or do a little bit better than that from a volume standpoint.

Operator

The next question comes from Bryan Burgmeier with Citi.

Bryan Burgmeier

Maybe just on the updated EBITDA outlook for 2026. Just curious if you could help us bridge that a little bit. I guess you're going to have a little bit of help from commodities, a little bit of M&A not sure if ESP in the quarter versus your model or if it was in line? Just any detail on the improved outlook there.

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. I'll give you both pieces when you take a look at our guide that we updated in July compared the guide that we just recently updated. So at the midpoint, revenue is up about $200 million on the revenue. And $150 million of that or so is related to fuel fees, $50 million is related to Environmental Solutions. Most of that has already occurred with those handful of large emergency response jobs that we called out.

With respect to the EBITDA, we're expecting some contribution from fuel fees, call it in the $10 million ZIP code in part just because we saw the big spike in fuel costs in the month of September. They move from the kind of mid $5 a gallon up to [ $6.50 ] or so in September. So we expect our fuel recovery fee to catch up early in the fourth quarter and about [ $15 million ] of the contribution from that $50 million on Environmental Solutions will positively impact EBITDA. And that's how you go from the previous guidance to approximately $25 million of incremental EBITDA at the midpoint.

Bryan Burgmeier

Got it. Got it. Really appreciate that detail. And then one follow-up for me, just going back to ES. I suppose it will always be a bit of a lumpy business just given the nature of the work but I'm just curious if you could try to frame what you think is maybe a sustainable level of margins. We've covered a lot of ground this year from high teens to mid-20s. And just, yes, curious about how you think about the sustainability of the 3Q performance and sustainable margin level?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. We talked about expanding the business 30 to 50 basis points. So we'll try to kind of match that or beat that margin expansion within ES. We think there's a lot of upside over the long term in that margin. I would tell you that if you measure it exactly by the quarter, right, you might not get the exact results you want. I think you've got to look at the trend across years and when you measure that trend, it's to the upper or the right. I think given the nature of this business, assets that are possible to permit. The waste that moves long distances gets priced by the pound or the yard versus the tone. I think there's a lot of opportunity to price for the value we deliver over time. And I think you're going to see steady progress on that in the years to come.

Operator

The next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

Noah Kaye

Getting some questions on the yield dynamics you called out as it relates to volume. Can you maybe just give us a little bit more of an explanation because it sounds like you're picking up new business, you're seeing volume growth, your same-store price is good, but there's just some business coming on at a lower starting price. So any more nuance to it than that? Or is this something that we should be expecting in coming quarters if we continue to see volumes improve?

Jon Vander Ark

I'd say that when the business expands, that's either through service increases at existing customers or taking on new customers, you are almost always going to take on those units that are profitable, but they're below the average rate. That's the nature of our subscription-based business and the recurring revenue elements of the business. And so that arithmetically puts downward pressure on yield. But it's profitable business and so normally, you see margin expansion. I think this we got caught a little unique circumstance this quarter with a comp in the landfills with a spike in diesel price, which that increase hurts us. We're fine at the level, but the increase of [indiscernible] and then some onetime healthcare costs that Brian mentioned that have already receded and come back down in October.

Outside of that, you see margin expansion. So we'd expect that yield number going forward to probably trend slightly up, but certainly, the margin expansion to flow through because those units certainly contribute are profitable and they come into the system.

Noah Kaye

Yes. Makes sense. And look, I mean all things considered for the business your size, what is the $18 million to $20 million higher is not a massive number, but the healthcare costs despite what was noticeable enough for you to call it out? I guess are there any other elements that maybe you call out as unusual for the balance of the year. You mentioned that as the rebate, I know that there have been some true-ups in the industry around risk management, accruals. Just anything we should be thinking about for 4Q?

Brian Delghiaccio

Nothing significant when you take a look at our prior period results, it was fairly straightforward, and that's what we're anticipating for this fourth quarter, and that's what's included in the guide.

Operator

The next question comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

Yehuda Silverman

This is Yehuda Silverman on for Toni Kaplan. Just a quick one on the end market health. I think I heard you mention earlier in the call that combined price and higher fuel recovery fee was about over 8%. Just curious if you could discuss the customer receptivity to pricing and how that's evolved, particularly in an environment with seems that this elevated fuel price and broader inflationary pressure might be here for a bit longer?

Jon Vander Ark

We certainly look at what the bill of the customer is going to receive and affordability is a very popular term right now, we're mindful of that. This is where our tools really help us to understand the lifetime value of that customer, and we want to run the business forever, not maximize any type of in-year pricing or any return on that.

So I'd say on the margin, that probably caused us to back off slightly on pricing, which we would have otherwise priced. But in terms of the core price and what you're seeing in the metrics really positive in terms of receptivity Again, I think the benefit of our tools is we're getting that price right and that customer is staying with us.

Yehuda Silverman

Got it. And just one quick one on the cost side, that labor and related benefit increased year-over-year a bit. Is that where the health care onetime came in there or some of the costs you saw a step up?

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. That's where most of it would be in that labor category.

Operator

The next question comes from Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo.

Jerry Revich

I want to ask on the AI part of the conversation in your prepared remarks. You folks spoke about some interesting pricing tools and opportunity to reduce the phone operator cost. Can we just talk about over what period of time do you think we'll see a meaningful impact on numbers? How long will some of these initiatives take to play out? And can you just size for us if we're talking about food and service, how meaningful of a bucket is that as we think about the margin upside?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes, pricing we're already seeing right now when you're seeing that in the numbers and the impact, especially in the fuel-related environment. Customer service, you're starting to see just small bits of that, but most of that impact will come in next year. And then on the routing, which is the biggest opportunity, most of the will be rolled out next year, so you'll see some impact towards the back end of next year, but that will really be a 2028 story in terms of getting the full benefit of that. Think we mentioned $100 million run rate EBITDA by the end of 2028, and we still feel like we're on track for that number.

Jerry Revich

Okay. Great. And then [indiscernible] are about '27 in about 3 months, but putting the pieces together, we've got good momentum on ES for the first time in 18 months. And if we were thinking about good core margin improvement in the base business on top of it, it could be in total a year of outsized margin expansion '27 versus '26. Brian, anything that we need to keep in mind given that up? And obviously, we'll talk more detail in 3 months, but would love to get your initial thoughts on the high-level opportunity.

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. Remember, I mean, we didn't provide guidance, but we did talk about our long-term growth algorithm. And we feel that '27 is laying into the construct of what we talk about that long-term growth algorithm, which calls for 30 to 50 basis points of margin expansion.

Operator

The next question comes from Adam Bubes with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Bubes

I think organic growth ex event-related volumes in ES was 9%. Can you just help us understand the drivers of the strength there? How much is volume versus price, which business lines are you seeing the strongest growth?

Jon Vander Ark

You balance across both more volume and price, but certainly got our fair share on price. I think what you're seeing is just all the factors driving the industrial economy, PMI now has been over [ 50% ] for a number of months. You're starting to see the reshoring activity, obviously, a big build-out in all parts of the technology sector. And semiconductors and data centers and everything else. And all of those things are contributing to our performance.

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. And to Jon's point, it was broad-based. We saw increases at our hazardous waste landfills. We saw increase in E&P volumes. We saw it in our TSDF, in our Field and Industrial Services. So it's a very broad-based increase.

Adam Bubes

And then on the residential side, I think you cited some municipal contract losses. Were those new in 3Q? Or was that already in the base? And then I think last quarter on the call, you might have talked about potential to get closer to down 2% number sometime in 2027. Does that still hold? Or should we think about this as incremental shedding?

Jon Vander Ark

No. All these were actions or decisions that were taken last year that we're living with the effect through the course of this year and that we will certainly move up in our trend. And I think that roughly 2% is probably about where we'll end up landing next year.

Operator

The next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair.

Unknown Analyst

Just a couple more for me on ES just because it was nice to see the improvement there. I mean, one, I appreciate the comments about the sort of long-term growth algorithm in '27, and I know you don't want to be getting into detailed guidance, but just thinking you're already kind of organically ex events growing 9%, that kind of an easier comp in the first half next year, and you've got the manufacturing back up improving and all kind of the other secular factors there. So I mean, how are you thinking about the potential for '27 for ES to just be kind of an above-average growth here? And kind of what needs to happen for it to get there?

Jon Vander Ark

So we'll continue to build the pipeline and have high aspirations for our team. I think we gave you the long kind of the broad -- the broad markers of how the business does. Keep in mind, we're still in the sub [ 15% ] of the overall business. So when we give you the overall markers for how we're going to do next year, you could still outsize performance in ES and can fit within the envelope that Brian talked about.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that, Jon. And just a quick follow-up on ES as well. I mean, -- on the ER project overall, I guess, how has this year kind of been trending relative to a normal year? And then I know pricing on the ER work is something you've talked about maybe the past several quarters. You feel like that's kind of gotten back to an equilibrium at this point now that you're kind of winning more jobs?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes, I think we're getting better and smarter every day. We do thousands of ER jobs every year. Most of them are very small. It's the outsized jobs that can kind of drive the economics. And really, the last 18 to 24 months prior to this quarter, it's been the dearth of those larger jobs. And so typically, you see 1, 2 or 3 of these bigger jobs every year. We had a couple of them this quarter. Team did a great job, and we leverage the full capabilities of our offering. So it wasn't just Environmental Solutions, Field Services team and post-collection group, but it was also our recycling and waste landfills that played a pretty big part in providing the right solutions for our customers.

Operator

The next question comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

Tami Zakaria

I wanted to understand the mid-single-digit growth algo that you have for the long term a little bit better. So you've been able to achieve that despite residential construction, housing formation being very weak in the last few years. So if and when that begins to recover. How should we think about a lift to that mid-single-digit percent number? Or what kind of improvement have you seen -- did you see in the past when prior resi up cycles begin?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. I'm very optimistic about the U.S. housing market over time. I'm very pessimistic about it in the short to medium term. I think we're going to need to get the 10-year down and the interest rate down to unlock both people to move and investment in the new housing construction with which the country badly needs. It will have a nice, steady positive tailwind to the industry. And it will start large container temp because that will be the work we do, we'll add then some residential units and then the knock-on effect is adding some small container units around that as you see business formation happen around households. So that will be a steady -- it's not points and points of growth to the top line, but there will be certainly basis points of tailwind, and those will be profitable units will add to the system.

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. If you want to sensitize it direct construction-related activity is about 6% to 7% of our total revenue base.

Operator

Next question comes from Seth Weber from BNP Paribas.

Seth Weber

Just a couple more on [indiscernible]. The 9%, excluding the emergency business, do you feel like that's a catch-up of just stuff that has been delayed? Or do you feel like you're taking market share here?

Jon Vander Ark

I think I would encourage you do not over interpret a given quarter. In this business, there's always puts and takes in event job where recycling of waste given the predominantly recurring revenue nature of that business, right, very repeatable, predictable and you can start to spot trends easier in that business. I think we're seeing a reignition of growth in the sector and we're certainly getting our fair share, and we feel probably more than our fair share right now. That could change over the quarter, but we'll -- again, over the cycle, we'll look to get growth slightly ahead of market and certainly lead with price and then take volume behind that. And I think we're very encouraged by the -- of the efforts the team has made in that business.

Seth Weber

Okay. And then just as this business turns, would you expect outsized incremental margins in this business for the, say, 2027?

Jon Vander Ark

I think it depends a lot on mix and the nature of that work. In general, yes, you get leverage on post-collection assets, you get leverage on your labor. So there's some fixed cost nature of that work on the Field Services as well. But the nature of that work and the mix of the work could determine it, but on balance, yes.

Operator

The next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

Shlomo Rosenbaum

First question, just a little bit about operational landfill costs. I think you're the first company reporting this quarter that has not mentioned that they're starting that they're going up. And I'm just wondering, are you noticed that happening recently and is there a way to console it if it is? And if not, why do you think you're not seeing it versus some of the other ones that I was talking about in now?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. Some of it depends on weather and rain and the mix of where your landfills are located. And again, in any given quarter or year, you might be slightly more elevated than others than that. Landfills are certainly getting more expensive to operate, but our team has done a really good job of managing those costs, getting in front of it, and most importantly, protecting the health of those landfills across the cycle.

Shlomo Rosenbaum

Do you see anything regulatory-wise particularly where your landfills are located that's making a bigger difference now versus some of the other ones?

Jon Vander Ark

We're working every day across multiple state capitals, shaping regulation or sometimes working against regulation if we think it's really bad for the customer, but most of the time shaping regulation to help improve the environment and manage those assets.

Shlomo Rosenbaum

Great. Just a follow-up, Brian, can you just talk about the price of diesel that's expected in your 4Q '26 numbers?

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. We've seen diesel modulate a little bit. The high point in September was approximately [ $6.50 ]. As we sit here today, we're, call it, [ $6.35 ]. We expect that to taper down a little bit and approach the $6 mark by the time we exit the year.

Operator

The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. Okay. So maybe first question, I do want to touch about M&A. Maybe if you could talk about how you're just viewing the M&A environment today where you're seeing the most attractive opportunities across [indiscernible], ES or anything else? And then -- what should we expect maybe your focus to remain? Is it more so tuck-ins? Is there an appetite for maybe a larger more strategic deal? I would love to get your thoughts. Thank you.

Jon Vander Ark

The balance of our pipeline is always going to be smaller tuck-ins. We'll probably end up doing some more 25 acquisitions this year, most of which will be small tuck-ins. It will be balanced across Recycling and Waste and ES. Most of it will be recycling of waste, just given the size and the nature of those opportunities. There were certainly some medium-sized deals this year, and there'll be some more next year. The pipeline remains very, very strong. In terms of anything larger, we remain take a perspective on everything, but I wouldn't anticipate something in that. Stage of that size to happen to be in our wheelhouse here in the short to medium term.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

Understood. And just a quick follow-up on the volume piece. Can you just remind us where you are in the -- just the residential shedding journey? When we should see maybe that optimal mix and then also any color you can give in terms of what this is implied from just a margin standpoint as well?

Jon Vander Ark

Well, I think there's always going to be some underlying shedding because as we acquire companies, we know part of their portfolio are municipal contracts that will either upgrade or exit. They just don't meet our returns threshold. And so again, across 25 deals, we don't pay for that portion of the deal when we buy those contracts. So we retain some of them, but we know some of them would be unlikely to retain.

And then going forward, we don't aspire to shrink that business. We would like to grow that business over time, but we're going to make sure that we get attractive returns on the hard work that our people do. And so we're going to continue to look for customers that are willing to pay for a differentiated offering and to get that market will move over time, but when forced to choose, we're going to take price over volume.

Brian Delghiaccio

And the margin implications of that to your question is if you're shedding lower profitable work within the residential business, but gaining on the more profitable small and large container work that's going to mix up from a margin perspective.

Operator

The next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist. Tobey, your line maybe muted.

We will take the next question from Kevin Chiang with CIBC.

Kevin Chiang

Maybe just on Environmental Services, again, good results in the quarter. I appreciate, as you called out, mix can play a role here and maybe just the underlying cyclicality of the business. But I guess when I look further route. It feels like your income [indiscernible] margin in this business can be kind of like 30% to 50%, I guess, depending on mix as that revenue comes through. Is that kind of the right ballpark to think about how that incremental revenue flows through to the bottom line and then mix is maybe a 20-point variance around that goalpost?

Brian Delghiaccio

Yes. To Jon's earlier point, it depends on the type of work that you're getting. So certainly, if you're getting it through your post-collection infrastructure, the TSDFs, the landfills, the E&P work, certainly can be those levels.

Field and Industrial Services, it's going to be accretive to those lines of business, but not to that level. So certainly, what we saw in this period given the large emergency response jobs as well as increases in both the headways landfills and E&P. That's why you saw the incrementals that we produced this quarter.

Kevin Chiang

That's helpful. And just my follow-up question. If I look back the last 5 years or so, I don't think we've seen a quarter where small container, large container and special waste all put a positive volume. I guess the last time we saw it was coming out of the pandemic. I guess does this foretell how volume trends in 2027 ex the intentional shedding? Like could you have let's say, positive volumes next year ex some of the purposeful shedding you're pursuing in your resi book?

Jon Vander Ark

Yes. I think the market is starting to expand. Again, the market is not taking off. I don't want to oversell it, but the market is absolutely trending up and trending to a positive period. And the one caveat and all that is there's a lot of things going on geopolitically and with AI and big investment cycles and other things. So the macro would have to be supportive of that. But if the macro hangs in there, we would absolutely expect to see positive volume next year.

Operator

The next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist.

Tobey Sommer

Sorry about that, the trick or treating came earlier this year. I wanted to ask a question about if you look over the horizon sort of in the quarter, we've had a couple of 2, 3 years where landfill natural gas provided a little bit of kind of new opportunity in spice for profit and revenue and cash flow growth. What do you see over the next 3, 7, 8 years that might provide another spicy period with a minor but interesting catalyst to spur those growth rates a little higher.

Jon Vander Ark

We're certainly looking at everything that goes into a landfill and challenging all the tons. Landfills while they are profitable, they are also a cost right? You've already collected the money from somebody that are cost to us. So is there something else we could do with that material. And some of that -- we get a little bit of diversion out of that of our sustainability investments around advanced recycling. Most of that is up-cycling, but there is some opportunity of taking things inverting them out of the landfill.

So the biggest opportunity we're pursuing right now is organic material, which is 20% to 25% of what shows up in a landfill. And we have a lot of those projects today, are there more different things that we can do with those over time. That's not a kind of near-term 1- to 2-year opportunity. But over 3 to 5 years, I think that could provide a -- start to be an interesting and meaningful revenue stream.

Operator

At this time, there appears to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

Jon Vander Ark

Thank you, Chloe. I want to thank the entire Republic Services team for their continued great work and dedication to exceeding our customers' expectations. We've accomplished a lot already this year, and I'm confident we will carry this momentum through the end of the year and into 2027 as we continue creating long-term value for our customers, employees and shareholders. I would also like to say congratulations to Jim Fish on a terrific career at WM, and I wish him the best in retirement. Have a good evening and be safe.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.