마켈 그룹(MKL) 2026년 3분기 실적발표회: 보험 이익 및 엔스타 리저브 계약

핵심 요약

• 마켈 그룹은 2026년 3분기 조정 영업이익이 전년 동기의 6억 2,100만 달러에서 14% 증가한 7억 700만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 영업수익은 6% 늘어난 42억 달러였다.
• 회사 측이 2025년 3분기의 4억 3,300만 달러 이익과 달리 2억 8,100만 달러의 미실현 순투자손실을 기록함에 따라, 보통주 주주 귀속 순이익은 2억 5,900만 달러(희석주당순이익 18.15달러)로 감소했다.
• 지속 영업 보험료는 9% 성장했으며, 런오프 상태인 글로벌 리(Global Re) 부문이 3%포인트의 부정적 영향을 미쳤음에도 합산비율은 91.9%로 개선됐다. 마켈의 3개 지속 영업 보험 부문은 연초 대비 누적으로 4억 4,500만 달러의 준비금을 환입했다.
• 마켈은 엔스타(Enstar)에 22억 5,000만 달러의 준비금을 이전하고 12억 달러 규모의 손해액 악화 보호(adverse development protection)를 받기로 합의했다. 경영진은 이번 거래가 주로 레거시 익스포저를 둘러싼 불확실성을 줄이기 위한 목적이라고 밝혔다.
• 산업 부문 조정 영업이익은 29%, 금융 부문은 30%, 소비재 및 기타 부문은 80% 증가했다. 경영진은 데이터 센터 및 핵심 인프라와 관련된 수요가 산업 부문의 성장을 견인했다고 강조했다.
• 마켈은 해당 분기 동안 3억 1,500만 달러, 연초 대비 누적으로는 6억 8,500만 달러 규모의 자사주를 매입했다. 회사는 지난 5년간 전체 발행 주식 수를 10% 이상 줄였다.

주요 재무 데이터

2026년 첫 9개월간 영업수익은 2% 증가한 117억 달러를 기록했다. 조정 영업이익은 전년 동기의 17억 달러 대비 16억 달러였으며, 보통주 주주 귀속 순이익은 12억 달러(희석주당순이익 91.90달러)를 기록했다.

순투자소득은 연초 대비 누적 8% 증가한 7억 7,000만 달러를 기록했다. 마켈은 90억 달러의 세전 미실현 이익을 포함해 131억 달러 규모의 주식 포트폴리오로 해당 분기를 마감했다. 또한 금리 상승으로 인해 분기 중 채권 포트폴리오에서 세후 기타포괄손실 4억 1,600만 달러가 발생했다.

사업 및 영업 실적

보험 부문

글로벌 리 및 헤거티(Hegarty) 전환의 영향을 제외하면 보험료는 9% 성장했다. 경영진은 기대 수익이 매력적인 분야에서는 확장을 추진하고, 요율이 위험을 충분히 보상하지 못하는 분야에서는 익스포저를 줄이는 등 엄격한 인수(underwriting) 기조를 유지했다고 밝혔다.

미국 도매 및 특수(Wholesale and Specialty) 보험료는 마켈이 건설 관련 배상책임 익스포저를 줄이고 약세인 재물보험 시장에서 엄격한 기조를 유지함에 따라 3% 감소했다. 합산비율은 89.0%를 기록했다.

해외(International) 보험료는 해상, 구조화 포트폴리오 솔루션, 유럽 및 아시아·태평양 지역 사업부의 성장에 힘입어 45% 증가했다. 해당 부문의 합산비율은 89.9%였다.

프로그램 및 솔루션(Programs & Solutions) 부문은 합산비율을 전년 동기의 94.2%에서 87.0%로 개선했다. 산재보험 및 버뮤다 재물보험 등에서 유리한 준비금 변동이 있었으나, 경영진은 개인 포괄 배상책임을 포함한 2개 위임 프로그램의 실적 저하 문제를 계속 해결해 나가고 있다.

3개 지속 영업 보험 부문은 첫 9개월 동안 4억 4,500만 달러의 준비금을 환입했으며, 이는 2025년 동기의 3억 9,700만 달러와 비교된다. 유리한 준비금 변동은 미국 재물보험, 해상, 개인보험, 산재보험, 그리고 해외 해상 및 에너지 부문에서 발생했다. 글로벌 리 부문은 지난 3~6개월 동안 접수된 청구에 따라 거래 배상책임에서 불리한 준비금 변동을 기록했다.

손해액 악화 커버

엔스타와의 거래 대상 적격 준비금은 48억 달러 규모다. 마켈은 22억 5,000만 달러의 준비금을 이전하고 보유 익스포저를 초과하는 12억 달러 규모의 손해액 악화 보호를 받게 된다. 위험 프라임은 1억 2,000만 달러다.

경영진은 이전되는 자산의 세전 수익률이 약 4% 수준으로, 이에 따른 순투자소득 감소액의 지표를 제공할 것으로 추정했다. 이 거래는 시간이 지남에 따라 5억 달러 미만의 자본을 해제할 것으로 예상되며, 마켈은 이를 3개 지속 영업 보험 부문의 성장 기회에 재투입할 수 있다.

산업, 금융 및 소비재 사업

산업 부문 매출은 13% 증가했고 조정 영업이익은 29% 늘었다. 데이터 센터 및 기타 상업·산업 인프라 수요에 힘입어 프리캐스트 콘크리트 및 소방·생명 안전 분야가 성장을 이끌었다. 경영진은 수주잔고가 견조하게 유지되고 있으나 대형 건설 및 자본재 프로젝트로 인해 분기별 변동성이 발생할 수 있다고 경고했다.

금융 부문 매출은 13% 증가했고, 조정 영업이익은 30% 증가했다. 보험연계증권(ILS)이 주요 성장 동력이었으며, 대출자 서비스(Lender Services) 역시 추가적인 호조를 보였다.

소비재 및 기타 부문 매출은 2% 증가했으며 조정 영업이익은 80% 증가했다. 경영진은 관상용 식물 판매가 봄철에 피크를 이루기 때문에 해당 부문의 계절적 수익성이 일반적으로 2분기에 가장 높게 나타난다고 언급했다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 손해액 악화 커버에 대한 1억 2,000만 달러의 위험 프라임이 4분기 추가 준비금 관리 마진 환입으로 상쇄되어 단기적인 언더라이팅 영향은 비교적 중립적일 것으로 예상하고 있다. 마켈은 해당 거래와 관련해 2027년 주당순이익 가이던스를 제공하지 않았다.

회사는 경영진이 다른 자본 배분 기회 대비 마켈 주식이 매력적인 가치를 지니고 있다고 판단할 때 자사주 매입을 지속할 것으로 예상한다. 토마스 게이너 CEO는 현재 마켈 주식이 회사의 자본 투입 옵션 중 최우선 순위에 가까워 보인다고 밝혔다.

보험 경영진은 포트폴리오 조정과 글로벌 리 불확실성 감소에 힘입어 2027년을 더욱 강화된 입지에서 맞이하게 된다고 전했다. 다만 특정 합산비율 목표를 구체적으로 약속하지는 않았다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 재물보험 요율은 여전히 압박을 받고 있다. 경영진은 2026년 마켈의 재물보험 포트폴리오 요율이 약 2%~3% 하락한 것으로 추정했으며, 재보험 조건의 연화 현상으로 인해 원수보험 시장의 경쟁이 심화될 것으로 전망했다.
• 미국 배상책임보험은 트럭 운송, 주거용 부동산, 건설 및 초과 배상책임 부문에서 여전히 어려움을 겪고 있다. 마켈은 건설 배상책임 청구 추세가 두 자릿수 수준을 나타내고 있으며 시장 요율이 이러한 추세를 충분히 반영하지 못했다고 밝혔다.
• 대형 건설 및 자본재 프로젝트의 시기에 따라 산업 부문의 분기별 실적에 변동이 있을 수 있다.
• 경영진은 숙련 노동력 부족, 지경학적 불확실성, 기술 변화 및 인플레이션을 비보험 사업 전반의 영업 과제로 꼽았다.
• 스테이트 내셔널은 손해액 악화 커버 대상에서 제외됐다. 마켈은 2분기에 인식한 2억 500만 달러의 대손상각비 이후 3분기에는 추가 대손 비용을 기록하지 않았으며, 내부 검토 결과 신용 익스포저의 건전성에 대한 신뢰가 확인됐다고 밝혔다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 손해액 악화 커버에 크게 주목했다. 경영진은 자본 해제 가속화가 아닌 레거시 및 런오프 준비금을 둘러싼 불확실성 완화가 주요 취지임을 강조했다. 예상 지급 패턴에 맞춘 채권 자산이 이전될 예정이며, 경영진은 유동성 관리를 위한 추가적인 포트폴리오 리밸런싱을 예상하지 않는다고 덧붙였다.

언더라이팅 수익성과 관련해 경영진은 지난 2년 동안 포트폴리오 품질이 개선됐다고 밝혔다. 글로벌 리 거래를 통해 반복적인 실적 변동성 요인이 제거될 것이며, 건설 배상책임 익스포저 축소도 시간이 지남에 따라 실적에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 조치들은 재물보험 요율 약세를 일부 상쇄할 수 있다.

또한 마켈은 일반 배상책임에 대한 선별적 접근 방식을 설명했다. 청구 인플레이션이 요율 상승폭을 초과하는 분야에서는 익스포저를 줄이고 있지만, 환경 및 헬스케어 보장을 포함해 특화된 전문성을 보유한 분야에서는 중소형 리스크를 지속적으로 공략하고 있다.

산재보험 요율과 관련해 경영진은 대체로 보합세를 보이고 있으며, 마켈의 소규모 계정 중심 단일상품 포트폴리오에서 현저한 요율 하락은 나타나지 않았다고 전했다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] During the call today there may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements.

Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in the press release for our first quarter 2026 results as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, including under the caption Safe Harbor and Cautionary Statements and Risk Factors.

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for those measures in the press release for our third quarter 2016 results or our most recent Form 10-Q.

The press release for our third quarter 2026 results as well as our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q can be found on our website at mklgroup.com in the Investor Relations section. Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thomas Gayner

Thank you, Kendra. Good morning. Thank you all for joining us. We're pleased to report a quarter of strong performance across our operating businesses as well as ongoing disciplined capital allocation. As always, our aim is to relentlessly compound your capital over time.

Two things drive our ability to do so. First, over decades, we've built an array of resilient, market-leading and growing businesses across industries and geographies. These businesses produce cash, maintain conservative balance sheets and produce low-cost insurance flip -- they create a foundation that lets us continually learn, iterate and improve.

Second, we reinvest the cash our businesses produce across a full 360-degree set of opportunities, our existing businesses, acquisitions, publicly traded securities and the repurchase of our own shares. We always aim to put capital to its best and highest use. And we do so with cost and tax efficiency.

We live by our culture known as the Markel Style, which describes our long-term ownership mindset. This approach, in turn, attracts businesses, leaders and colleagues who share our values and want to win. Given the normal short-term volatility in our operating results, from mark-to-market swings in our publicly traded investment portfolio, we measure progress in the dual time horizons of forever and right now.

For the forever or long term, we look at the growth in 5-year average operating income per share relative to our equity capital base. This 5-year average operating income along the total shareholder return underpins our management team's compensation.

Over the last 5 years, the quarter ending September 30, 2026, we have compounded 5-year average operating income per share at 16% a year. For the right now, shorter-term periods like a quarter or a year, we look at adjusted operating income. Adjusted operating income excludes the market value movement in our equity portfolio and the amortization of acquired intangible assets.

In the third quarter, adjusted operating income rose 14% to $707 million. Given our ongoing buyback program, adjusted operating income per share rose 15% in the fourth. We think there are 4 key takeaways from our business performance this quarter. First, we continue to see positive momentum in our insurance operations.

Ongoing underwriting premiums grew 9%. The team continues to find ways to grow its book of business profitably in an increasingly challenging market. The combined ratio improved to 91.9% even after absorbing 3 points from the global [indiscernible] Our 3 ongoing divisions released reserves again $445 million year-to-date, against $397 million at this point last year.

Second, we also saw strength in our businesses outside insurance. Industrial adjusted operating income rose 29% on 10% organic revenue growth. Financial rose 30% and consumer and other widened their margins. These businesses continued their long track record of generating cash, earning strong returns on capital and providing Markel with durable strength and resilience.

Third, higher interest rates produced increased cash flow. Net investment income rose 5% in the quarter to $258 million and 8% year-to-date to $770 million. Fourth, we continue to repurchase Markel shares. We bought back $315 million of our shares in the quarter and $685 million year-to-date. We bought more than 1% of our shares in the third quarter and have now reduced our total share count by more than 10% over the last 5 years.

We've bought back these shares at what we believe are attractive discounts to intrinsic value per share. We believe each repurchased share will increase the compounding of Markel's per share value over the long term. Before I hand things over, I'd like to take a moment to recognize and thank Steve Markel. Steve recently retired as Chairman after more than 50 years with Markel Group.

Steve hired me more than 35 years ago when I was a young investor with a lot to learn. For me and many others, we have served as a mentor embodies the Markel Style. Steve's analytical rigor and passion have been a cornerstone for Markel and they will have a lasting impact. Thank you, Steve.

As Chair and CEO, I'm fortunate to work with Simon Wilson and Andrew Crowley, who have been named co-Presidents of the holding company. Their expanded roles and involvement in the Markel Leadership Council, along with our Lead Independent Director, Mike O'Reilly, bring them closer to the center of how we lead and govern the company.

At this point, Simon will provide a brief review of our insurance results as well as an update on the adverse development cover that we just announced. Andrew will follow with comments on industrial, financial and consumer and other Brian will then cover highlights of our consolidated financial results before we open the line for your questions.

As always, we appreciate your support as long-term shareholders of Markel and we hope you share our enthusiasm for continuing to build the intrinsic value of each share of your company. Simon?

Simon Wilson

Thank you, Tom, and good morning. We continue to make good progress simplifying and improving Markel Insurance excluding Global Re and the impact of the [ Hegarty ] transition, premiums grew 9% in the quarter. Our combined ratio was 91.9% despite 3 points of impact from our runoff Global Re division. Behind those numbers is disciplined underwriting. We are growing where we see attractive returns and pulling back where we don't.

In U.S. Wholesale and Specialty premiums declined 3% as we deliberately reduced construction-related casualty and remain disciplined in a softer property market. The combined ratio was 89.0%.

International premiums grew 45%, led by Marine, structured portfolio solutions and our regional businesses in Europe and Asia Pacific with an 89.9% combined ratio for the quarter. And in Programs & Solutions, the combined ratio improved to 87.0% from 94.2% a year ago.

We are also continuing to see strength in our reserves. Our 3 ongoing divisions have released $445 million of reserves year-to-date compared with $397 million at this point last year. At the same time, we are taking decisive action on legacy exposures. The agreement we've reached with [ Enstar ] provides $1.2 billion of adverse development protection above the covered reserves across Global Re and certain other exited lines. This is about creating greater certainty around the runoff and allowing us to focus even more squarely on the ongoing specialty insurance business.

The premium for the adverse development cover will be funded by management margin in the reserves and will have an immaterial impact on the underwriting results in the fourth quarter. This deal was done at the time of Markel is choosing and make strategic and economic sense for the business.

Finally, we are managing our business tightly while investing for the future. Each of our 3 ongoing divisions has reduced the expense ratio year-to-date even as we continue to invest in our core systems, data and AI.

Our ambition is to build the preeminent specialty insurer in the world. strong underwriting profitability, disciplined growth, improving efficiency and decisive action on legacy exposures are all evidence of the progress we're making. There's more to do but I believe that Markel Insurance centers 2027 from a position of real strength. And with that, I'll hand it to Andrew.

Andrew Crowley

Thank you, Simon. It's a privilege to share an update on our industrial, financial and consumer and other businesses. In total, for the third quarter, revenue and adjusted operating income for these segments increased 10% and 35%, respectively. .

I will take the next few minutes to provide additional insight into each segment, including some context around the strength Tom previously mentioned. For our Industrial segment, last quarter, we noted that decreasing profitability and increasing revenue was a trend we did not expect to continue.

This quarter, results improved with revenue up 13% and adjusted operating income up 29%. The quarter-to-quarter change reflects both the natural variability of large-scale construction and capital equipment manufacturing and deliberate actions by our leaders to improve profitability.

Quarterly growth was driven primarily by our Precast Concrete and Fire and Life Safety businesses, which in recent years have invested in facilities, people and selective acquisitions to meet rising demand.

Looking forward, backlogs remain strong, reflecting demand for high-quality solutions for the build-out of data centers, and other critical commercial and industrial infrastructure. In the Financial segment, third quarter revenue and adjusted operating income increased 13% and 30%, respectively.

Higher revenue from our insurance-linked securities business was the primary driver of the increase with additional strength from our Lender Services business. The increase in revenue and profitability from our insurance-linked securities business is another step forward in the multiyear effort by our team to develop innovative solutions for risk transfer at a price and structure that meet investor demand.

Short-term results from this effort can and will vary, but our commitment to innovating and Stewart in Capital will not. Lastly, in Consumer and other, revenue and adjusted operating income increased 2% and 80% for the quarter, respectively.

As a reminder, profitability in this segment is highest in the second quarter given ornamental plant sales are seasonal and peak in the spring. As a result, modest profit increases in other businesses during the first, third and fourth quarters can have a large impact on the year-over-year percentage change.

In summary, our businesses across these segments are navigating complex market dynamics, such as skilled labor shortages, geopolitical uncertainty technological change and inflationary pressures, all while delivering revenue and profit growth. Strong leaders empowered to respond to the challenges and opportunities they face or core to our long-term approach.

Stepping back, as we highlighted during the reunion in May, we remain focused on long-term earnings growth outpacing capital growth across Markel. The quality of our businesses and leaders is critical to achieving that result as is our capital discipline.

Over the past several years, we've deployed capital into our existing businesses investing behind proven leaders in essential industries we know well. As we look ahead, we will maintain our relentless search to identify additional opportunities, both within our family and bond. That meet our long-term criteria. With that, I'll hand it to Brian. .

Brian Costanzo

Thank you, Andrew. As a reminder, our press release and 10-Q include full consolidated segment and divisional results. I'll cover some financial highlights of our consolidated results before we open the call to answer your questions. Operating revenues, which exclude net investment gains, rose 6% in the quarter to $4.2 billion and 2% year-to-date to $11.7 billion.

Operating income, which includes unrealized net investment gains and losses, was $383 million for the quarter compared with $1 billion a year ago. The difference is the equity market valuation changes. Unrealized net investment losses of $281 million this quarter versus unrealized gains of $433 million in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted operating income, which excludes net investment gains and losses and amortization of acquired intangible assets rose 14% in the quarter to $707 million from $621 million a year ago. Year-to-date, adjusted operating income was $1.6 billion, compared with $1.7 billion for the first 9 months of 2025. Net income to common shareholders for the third quarter was $259 million or $18.15 per diluted share compared with $751 million or $59.25 a year ago.

Year-to-date, net income to common shareholders was $1.2 billion or $91.90 per diluted share compared with $1.5 billion or $120.60 in the prior year's comparable period. Our equity portfolio stands at $13.1 billion at quarter end, including $9 billion of cumulative pretax unrealized gains.

Higher interest rates lowered the market value of our bond portfolio, resulting in an other comprehensive loss of $416 million after tax in the quarter. Those bonds move back towards par as they mature, and we are investing new insurance float and bond maturity proceeds at today's higher yields.

Net investment income for the year totaled $770 million, up 8% from a year ago. Our holding company ended the quarter with $3.6 billion in invested assets. We funded $315 million in share repurchases in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $685 million. Acquisitions totaled $9 million in the quarter, all bolt-ons within our existing businesses.

Within public equities, we were net sellers of $75 million in the quarter. Finally, regarding the $205 million bad debt charge recognized in the second quarter at State National, we previously shared that we engaged an outside actuarial firm to help assess that exposure and the conclusions of that work were reflected in the charge we recognized, which was conservative and in line with our philosophy of establishing loss reserves that are more likely redundant than deficient.

Consistent with this, we have not recognized any additional bad debt charges in the third quarter. We also continued implementing proactive enhancements to State National's processes, completing a comprehensive internal review of the potential impact of further deterioration of loss trends on the entire portfolio. We are confident in the health of our credit exposures.

With that, we will turn it back to Kendra to open it up for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question from the line of Andrew Kligerman, with TD Cowen.

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Andrew Kligerman

Markel team. My first question is around the adverse development cover. Wondering if you could bear more detail -- the details that we -- that I didn't see in the Q in the release were how much of the investment portfolio or reserves rather will be transferred over what will be the lost net investment income.

And ultimately, Simon, I think you mentioned it would be EPS neutral in the fourth quarter. But looking out to next year, what would ultimately be the EPS dilution or accretion. So again, reserves transferred net investment income and EPS dilution or accretion, all looking at 2027.

Brian Costanzo

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. This is Brian. So the high level of the transaction, the total reserves subject to that are $4.8 billion we transferred $2.25 billion of that to [ Enstar ] and keep the remaining portion on our books to run off as normal.

In terms -- and then for that, we've got a $1.2 billion adverse development cover on top of that, and we pay $120 million risk premium. So that's kind of the general financial terms of the transaction in the press release. In terms of the net investment income, I think a good proxy for that is around a 4% yield on that pretax on that $2.25 billion that we transfer over to [indiscernible] it's a little bit higher than the rate in the Q as these are the more in the tail reserves that we're moving.

We pay our piece of the reserves first, Enstar then picks up after that our retention is exhausted. In terms of EPS for next year, we're not going to give any guidance on that. What I would say is, in the fourth quarter, consistent with what Simon said, we have the risk premium coming through. We have additional management margin that we would be releasing in the fourth quarter. We expect those 2 to be relatively neutral.

Andrew Kligerman

Got it. Okay. That was really helpful. So we can do the math on what you provided there. And then looking at the prior year development, adding 5.2 percentage points benefit to the loss ratio -- could you share a little bit on the geography of that?

And what I mean is, is it what proportion of short tail versus long tail. On the long tail side, could you share a little bit about the accident years that you were seeing? And if possible, I mean this a lot, but where is it coming well, actually, we have that in the Q. Whether it's wholesale or programs or international. So yes, that's the question.

Brian Costanzo

Sure. Andrew, it's Brian again. So what I would say is in the U.S. It's a fair amount coming from first party lines, so that's your property in the marine personal lines along with workers' compensation. Obviously, the property is going to be your more recent years for the being shorter tail. .

The workers' comp is more spread out, including in some more of the back years. On your professional and casualty more neutral, I would say, across those lines. A few pieces going up a little bit, a few pieces going down a little bit but relatively stable in that space.

And then the last place within the International division, releases within our marine and energy product and then some releases kind of across the portfolio across many of the other products. The one place where we did have some adverse trend is in the Global Re business, and that was specific to transaction liability due to some recent claims that have come our way in the last kind of 3 to 6 months.

Andrew Kligerman

Got it. And when you said professional and casualty were neutral, in accident years were pretty much neutral as well, nothing jumping out.

Brian Costanzo

Nothing in the back years. I mean we have our normal kind of roll on, roll off of margin that hits the more recent years, but pretty neutral.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies.

Andrew Kligerman

With the combined ratio running in the low 90s year-to-date, how do you think about the durability of that level of profitability as certain markets soften. And where do you see the biggest offsets from some of the good underwriting actions and portfolio mix that have been helping recent results?

Simon Wilson

Thanks, Andrew, it's Simon. We've been working really hard to get that combined ratio down in the low 90s. You know that from all of the different things we've done over the course of the last 18 months or so. .

I mean, in terms of what happens going into next year, we're going to be working really, really hard to keep this consistency going. What I would say, I think the portfolio has improved significantly over the last 2 years, just the announcement yesterday with the Global Re, that's been a drag on results for a period of time now.

And that essentially, that noise goes away as we go into '27. So I see that as a positive. The other areas where we've been working very hard on portfolio, on the defensive side has been around U.S. casualty. And again, I've mentioned on several of these calls, but that construction casualty, which we've really worked on over the last 18 months is something which I think will over time benefit the combined ratio.

That said, there are headwinds, whether it be in the property market and generally across the world, particularly here in the U.S. whether that be in various little London market lines, we are seeing softening and that's going to have an impact on the overall economics.

But the good thing, I think, about our portfolio overall is we sell around about -- I think it's about 100 different products around the planet. And a lot of those where we're really focusing on is the small- to medium-sized risk, whether that be in the U.S. space or that good growing European business that I mentioned in my opening comments.

That's the type of business which is less impacted by a sort of overall softening behavior across the marketplace. And I think that's -- when we get good at that, whether it's with technology or with the way in which we're going to market and the products that we're selling there, that's where I think we've got some degree of ballast across the portfolio overall.

So I can't say for certain what the results are going to be next year. But I think we're just really strongly positioned from a portfolio perspective to continue this degree of consistency that we've generated over the last sort of 5 or so quarters now.

Andrew Andersen

And could you quantify the capital that you expect the ADC transaction to release? And how should we think about the timing of that release versus allowing the reserve to run off naturally?

Brian Costanzo

Yes. Andrew, it's Brian. I would say a rough estimate is a little under $0.5 billion. One thing to remind there is we don't think of that as capital coming out the capital that we have in our insurance operations to support kind of what we need to support our business is really held in public equities.

So really, that's an opportunity for us down the road. To take that capital, redeploy it into growth opportunities within our existing 3 divisions. .

Andrew Andersen

Okay. With that, I guess I'm just wondering, I mean, Markel, you guys have substantial financial flexibility and you've been funding buybacks from internally generated earnings. So how important was an accelerated capital release for the rationale for the transaction versus simply reducing uncertainty around these legacy and runoff reserves.

Thomas Gayner

Yes. It was to -- this is Tom, to reduce the uncertainty and have a forward-looking way to run the business. The good news is we have a good, robust capital positions and we have 360 degrees of opportunity, whether it's to invest in our existing business, make acquisitions to buy publicly traded securities or repurchase our own shares. We have the capital to execute what we want to do. This is about reducing uncertainty.

Andrew Andersen

Okay. And sorry, one more. You mentioned kind of investing into public equity. So I would have thought at this valuation level, that capital release would be going really through buyback.

I imagine it's all kind of the same pot, but should we think of some buyback from this capital release as well?

Thomas Gayner

I think the good news is, I mean, money is fungible. So I don't really check whether it's from my left pocket or my right bucket. The good news [ Acasti ] money in them, and we have continued to repurchase shares and have expectations of continuing to do so. When I do the math of what -- of those 360 degrees, we should be pointed at Markel stock seems to be at the top of the list.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui

Congrats on your ADC. To be sure, I'm assuming that this ADC excludes State National. And if that's the case, do you feel like reserves are adequate there and you didn't have to market in ADC for those liabilities -- or did you try to extend the ADC to State National and you just didn't get an appetite from your counterparty or other counterparties?

Brian Costanzo

Yes. Tracy, it's Brian. The ADC does not include State National. We did not look to include State National in the transaction. This was about the legacy reserves and runoff portfolios that we have within our insurance business.

As I mentioned, we did a lot of work at State National this period in kind of stressing out the reserves, increasing the loss trends above what we're holding considerably and feel good about where that landed from being able to manage the collateral and capital position.

Tracy Benguigui

Okay. And also year-to-date, your favorable prior year development implies a steep ramp to meet your 2026 $800 million reserve release guide. Do you have a new guide? Or do you get there mechanically since essentially $800 million is implied 5% of your 2025 reserves. So should we simply reduce the reserve base by the $4.8 billion ADC subject reserve?

Brian Costanzo

I think that's the number -- the range that we put in the K each year of what it could possibly be. I think that's the top end of the range. We consistently release reserves every quarter. Consistent with our reserving philosophy, I would expect the fourth quarter, nothing different to change there.

Tracy Benguigui

Okay. And just real quick on NII. I appreciate the commentary. But is it fair to assume that a counterparty would not want equities, so you'd be giving up fixed income securities and you may need to rebalance your assets after the deal closes?

Thomas Gayner

We did give -- we will be giving up fixed income securities. That's correct. We match kind of the securities that we're giving up kind of with the payout patterns. So I don't expect any rebalancing to kind of manage our liquidity.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Maxwell Fritscher with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Maxwell Fritscher

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes. Just had a couple of questions on 2 specific lines of business. More broadly for general liability, so far, their earnings on average premiums are decelerating and some of your peers are highlighting a moderating price environment. I just wanted to get your observations there. How's competition are you finding that pricing is still running ahead of loss costs.

Brian Costanzo

Yes. So in that I specifically talk about the U.S. casualty or the U.S. general liability marketplace. When we talk about that, it's a very, very broad marketplace. And with primary casualty and we have excess casualty.

What we are finding are there are pockets which are very difficult. And several competitors have mentioned this in their calls. I would put those out there as the trucking business, the habitational business and the construction business.

We do not and have not done a lot of trucking or habitational business in the past. We did have a reasonable chunk of construction liability on our books. And so I feel more able to comment on that space.

I think in that particular area, we continue to see claims trending higher. People have used the number sort of in the double-digit numbers there, I wouldn't disagree with that. And I think the amount of premium that people -- and the rate that people are getting in that marketplace doesn't match the trend that we're seeing.

And that's why we actively reduced our exposure in that particular area. That said, and I think also in the excess casualty marketplace as well. I think that is a difficult part of the market to really get the rate above the trend at the moment.

So we're trading cautiously in that area as well. there are areas of the primary market where I think we have specific expertise. We feel good about our ability to underwrite in that space and our ability to get the premium, which is sufficient for the risk that we're taking on board.

So we're kind of doubling down in those areas and making sure that our expertise and our capability of selling in those areas. And for example, the environmental space, health care is another area that we've done quite well and recently.

So we're picking our spots and we're also probably trending towards smaller and medium-sized business in that particular area. But the general commentary that it's a difficult market, I think, is correct but it's also a very big market. And I think there's places where you can play successfully, and that's what we're doing at the moment and where we have confidence that we can make a good return over a long period of time.

Maxwell Fritscher

Great. And then I guess, switching gears to workers' comp. One competitor highlighted increased claims frequency there. How to take up loss picks. Any thoughts on pricing there? Is competition still rational? And are you observing any changes in the environment on workers' comp? .

Brian Costanzo

Again, workers comp is a big market over here, different states of different behaviors. I think in general, we've seen a fairly flattish rate. It's not a market that's had huge swings in terms of pricing.

I mentioned property earlier, which you have seen a very big kind of like it steeply went up back in '22, '23 and then it's come back down again over the course of the last 12 to 18 months. Workers' comp has been at a much slower trend. And certainly, in our particular part of the market, and we really do focus on the small end of workers confidence generally monoline workers comp as well.

We haven't seen a significant drop-off in rate in that particular area. So we remain happy with the book of business that we have, which is a little different than some others play in the medium to large space in the marketplace. But we haven't seen any dramatic drop off in that particular segment.

Operator

Again, your next question is from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman

I was particularly interested in the industrial segment and the quick turnaround. And I think Andrew mentioned in the opening remarks that there could be some volatility. And then as you kind of fleshed it out a little bit, it sounds like you've got some good exposure to data centers and industrial infrastructure.

And then you mentioned a lot of backlog. So what changed from quarter-to-quarter, it was kind of a steep turnaround? And then going forward, it sounds very exciting. And what we saw in the third quarter could be kind of a trend over the next few quarters or so. So maybe a little color on those 2 points.

Andrew Crowley

Andrew, this is Andrew. Appreciate the question and interest in our industrial businesses. You're right. The change from the first half of the year to the third quarter was marked by a significant profit increase year-over-year in the most recent results.

When I step back similar to what Simon said a minute ago, we operate across a variety of markets within that segment, whether it be bakery equipment, precast concrete, fire and life safety, a whole host of others, equipment leasing.

And so there's a trend within each, and I highlighted around fire and life safety and precast concrete, which are integral in the build-out of both data centers and commercial and industrial infrastructure. As to the results, we've got a tremendous amount of talent at the leadership level. We feel great about that.

They've taken actions to drive profit. We do have slightly higher revenue growth, which enables a little more operating leverage -- so I think you combine those 2 things, and that's what you see in the third quarter. We're excited about the businesses long term.

Quarter-to-quarter, there will be some variability, but we're glad to see that the results better reflect the feeling we have around the positioning of our businesses.

Andrew Kligerman

Okay. That's helpful. And then back to Simon. With regard to pricing, on the property side of the equation. Maybe you could share with us what your mix is in the insurance segment, meaning how much is short tail? How much is long tail? And with regard to the pricing, what are you seeing on the property side of the equation?

Brian Costanzo

Andrew, in terms of mix, it's certainly in the U.S. planted towards longer tail. So the property business is, call it, 30% of our wholesale and specialty division. The rest of that division is made up of kind of casualty professional and then our binding line, which also includes some property in there. Do you want to talk about the rate environment, Simon?

Simon Wilson

I suppose on the property is, so if you take that 30%, which is the actual kind of what we call property and then you get probably take an extra 10 from binding in there, there or thereabouts. It's kind of 40% of the book overall.

I would suggest that property this year is probably of 2% to 3% in our book of business. It is competitive. It was interesting to see the storm season go through. We're not done with the storm season yet. We remembered Sandy from 2011. So there's -- it's not over until it's over. But it's trending in a way where it's been very low catastrophe this year.

So I would expect we go into a reinsurance renewal season. with some very competitive terms being offered there. And that will lead to more competition as we go into next year. It's been very, very significant in structured and layered large property placements.

And the competition now, I think, is trending towards a smaller and medium-sized property business. as well. So for sure, property does not have the margin that it did a few years ago. I don't think we're quite at the point where it's underwater.

Yet I still think there's profit to be made in that particular area, but we're getting pretty close. So one would hope and expect, as we go through the course of 2027 for that market to kind of flatten out a little bit and then discipline to come back through.

But I do think there's going to be some fairly major loss equity required in order to move that market substantively. But I do think it's beginning to flatten out because of the acceleration in the softening that we saw in the first half of the year.

So it's a little bit less but the storm season this year with the very few landfalls that we've seen in terms of hurricane activity. I can only imagine that we're going to have softer reinsurance, which will lead to softer conditions in the primary market.

Andrew Kligerman

Great color, Simon. And if I could just sneak one last one in, just on programs and solutions more specific in your businesses. What are the big pieces of programs and solutions and the underlying combined ratio was about 99%. Did that concern you at all? And then what was in that huge 12 points of favorable release?

Simon Wilson

I'll start this off, and I'm going to hand it over to Brian. So programs and solutions is made up of 5 business units. Bermuda, it's a programs division that does the delegated underwriting is workers' comp and small commercial, Markel personal lines, and surety.

So there's 5 businesses there that in total aggregate up to about just shy of $3 billion of premium per year. You asked about the 95% combined ratio. -- actually, the one driver of that, that we're looking at is in that delegated programs business.

We've got 2 programs in there, which have caused us a re concern. I've mentioned the personal umbrella on previous calls. That's been something that we've been working hard at, we have taken very significant and deliberate action in that particular space.

And I believe why the 99 isn't a major concern for me at the moment. I'd like it to be lower, of course, is because of the action that's been taken and we expect that to improve over the course of 2027.

So it's one of those deliberate underwriting discipline actions that we took. I think you mentioned the second part of the question, I'll give to Brian.

Brian Costanzo

Yes. On the prior year release, there's kind of 2 things there. One, workers' comp is in that unit, all of our workers' comp, which has some steady releases -- the other piece is our Bermuda property also had some significant releases in the quarter.

Operator

Helpful. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

Thomas Gayner

I want to thank you all for joining us today. We've been delighted to report on our progress of serving our customers and relentlessly compounding the intrinsic value of Markel Group over the long term.

Thank you for your ongoing support and interest, and we look forward to keeping you updated as we continue to build and grow your company. Thank you very much.

Operator

This conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.