グラナイト・リッジ・リソーシズ（GRNT）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EBITDAXは35％増、2027年に転換点控える

要点

• 第3四半期の平均生産量は日量3万4,641 BOE（石油換算バレル）と前四半期比で8%増加し、原油生産量は16%増加した。総生産量に占める原油の割合は55%となった。
• 調整後EBITDAXは1億730万ドルに達し、第2四半期比で35%増、前年同期比で36%増となった。経営陣は、Granite Ridge Resourcesの上場以来で最高の四半期実績であると説明した。
• 運転資本変動前のキャッシュフローは9,660万ドルとなり、当四半期の掘削・仕上げ設備投資額である9,080万ドルを上回った。
• 取締役会は最大3,500万ドルの自社株買いプログラムを承認した。経営陣は、自社株買いを機動的に実施すると述べた。
• 経営陣は2027年に前年比約10%の生産量増加を目標としており、原油の比重を高めつつ、設備投資額は概ね横ばいを見込んでいる。
• Granite Ridgeは、2027年の調整後フリーキャッシュフローにより配当およびその他の資本配分の優先事項を賄い、キャッシュフローの拡大によってレバレッジを引き下げることを見込んでいる。

主要財務データ

GAAPベースの純損失には商品デリバティブ関連の損失5,270万ドルが含まれており、そのうち3,180万ドルが未実現損失であった。

事業および操業実績

Granite Ridgeは当四半期、主にパーミアン盆地で持分換算9.2坑井の操業を開始し、期末時点の仕掛かり坑井数は持分換算14.6坑井となった。また、Waha天然ガス価格の回復も、前四半期比でのEBITDAX拡大の主要な要因となった。

同社は掘削・仕上げ設備投資の大部分を引き続き操業パートナーシップに充当している。経営陣によると、これらのパートナーシップを通じて、パーミアン盆地の掘削インベントリーを持分換算1地点当たり250万ドル未満で安定的に追加できているという。

Granite Ridgeは、ミッドランド盆地に注力する新たな操業パートナーとしてArete Creek Resourcesを紹介した。Areteは約6つの掘削間隔ユニット（DSU）と総計40箇所以上の掘削候補地点を確保している。10月にパートナーシップ初となる坑井の掘削を開始し、2027年にはリグ1基を稼働させる見通しである。

ユティカ・シェールにおいて、Granite Ridgeは約6,300ネットエーカーを保有し、総計100坑井を超える生産坑井の権益から日量約3,000ネットBOEを生産している。当四半期中、同社は1,900万ドルで20件の買収を完了し、持分換算8地点を追加した。1地点当たりの平均取得コストは約240万ドルであった。

Granite Ridgeはさらに、DJ盆地の石油・ガス資産を2,000万ドル超で売却した。経営陣は、この売却について、広範な資産現金化戦略の一環ではなく、機動的なポートフォリオの整理であると位置付けた。

ガバナンス面では、Gray Rockの関連会社が8月にGranite Ridge株1,400万株をリミテッド・パートナーに現物分配した。これによりGray Rockの保有比率は約39%に低下し、Granite Ridgeは支配株主が存在する企業（Controlled Company）ではなくなった。同社は所定の移行期間内に、取締役会の過半数を独立社外取締役とし、各種委員会を完全に独立した構成へと移行する手続きを進めている。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、Granite Ridgeが2027年に前年比約10%の生産量増加を目標としており、増加分のうち原油がより大きな割合を占める見通しであると述べた。また、設備投資額が前年比で概ね横ばいとなるとの前提も妥当であるとの認識を示した。

生産量の増加およびヘッジ契約の満了に伴い、経営陣は2027年の調整後EBITDAXが2026年第3四半期の年換算水準を大幅に上回ると見込んでいる。また、2027年の調整後フリーキャッシュフローにより配当およびその他の資本配分の優先事項を賄うことができると予想している。

Arete Creekは2027年にリグ1基を稼働させる見通しである。Granite Ridgeは、既存の操業パートナーシップにより2027年および2028年の開発計画の見通しが確保され、それ以降の年度に向けたインベントリーや事業活動の検討に着手できるようになったと述べた。

リスクと留意点

リース操業費（LOE）は、1 BOE当たりでは前四半期比で減少したものの、依然として高水準にとどまっている。経営陣はこのコスト圧力について、含水率の上昇やフローバックに伴う塩水処理費用のほか、地上設備のレンタル費用や外注労務費が主因であると説明した。生産拡大に伴い操業コスト総額は増加すると見込まれるが、単位当たりコストはガイダンスの想定範囲に近づくと経営陣は予想している。

商品価格の変動も引き続き注視すべき要因である。Granite Ridgeは、資産買収やパートナーシップ坑井の評価にあたり、先物（ストリップ）価格ベースで25%を超えるフルサイクル・リターンを基準としており、主に期近物価格を前提とした資産取得を進める意図はないと述べた。

今後のGray Rockによる株式分配は、時期や規模を含め依然としてGray Rockの裁量に委ねられている。また同社は、自社株買いのペースと規模は市場環境に応じて機動的に判断され、取締役会が承認枠を拡大または取り消す可能性もあるとした。

経営陣は、EBITDAXの成長に伴い純有利子負債／EBITDA倍率（レバレッジ）は低下すると見込んでいるが、フリーキャッシュフローの使途を巡っては、配当、自社株買い、有利子負債削減、その他の資本配分の優先事項との間で競合が生じることになる。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

• 2027年の見通し枠組み：経営陣は、約10%の生産量増加、原油比率の上昇、および設備投資額の概ね横ばいという前提が、2027年における妥当な想定であることを確認した。
• 操業パートナーシップの能力：Arete Creekは総計40箇所以上の掘削候補地点と、2027年にリグ1基の稼働を支えるのに十分なインベントリーを確保している。また、Granite Ridgeには公表されていない別のパートナーも存在し、2027年後半以降に業績寄与し始める可能性のある案件を進めている。
• 自社株買い：経営陣は、当初承認された3,500万ドルの取得枠について、機動的な購入を行う柔軟性を確保するためのものであると述べた。取締役会は、キャッシュフローや市場環境を踏まえてプログラムを見直すことが可能である。
• 1地点当たり買収コストの上昇：経営陣は、前四半期比でのコスト上昇の主因として、ユティカでの取引比率が高まったことを挙げた。ユティカでは水平坑井の長さ（ラテラル長）が1万5,000～2万フィートに達し、パーミアン盆地の基準値である1万フィートを上回っている。フィート単位でみれば買収コストは一貫した水準を維持していると説明した。
• 資産売却：経営陣は、6つの盆地にわたる非操業（ノン・オペレーテッド）資産のポートフォリオを継続的に見直しているものの、計画的な資産売却プログラムを進めているわけではないと述べた。
• レバレッジ：同社は、バランスシートの安全性を重視しつつ、EBITDAXの拡大に伴いレバレッジは自然に低下すると見込んでいる。

決算説明会の全文字起こし

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Granite Ridge Resources' Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. James Master, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.

James Masters

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Granite Ridge Resources. We will begin our call with comments from Tyler Farkison, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will review the quarter's results and company strategy. He will then turn the call over to Kyle Kettler, our Chief Financial Officer, to review our financial results in greater detail. Tyler will then return to provide closing comments before we open the call for questions.

Today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. We ask that you review the cautionary statement in our earnings release. Granite Ridge disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. These and other risks are described in our press release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted free cash flow. information reconciling these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in our earnings release on our website. Finally, this call is being recorded, and a replay and transcript will be available on our website following today's call.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tyler.

Tyler Farquharson

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the most important takeaway -- for the last year, we have told you that 2026 is the final year we invest ahead of our cash flow and that 2027 is the turn. This quarter, you can start to see the turn in our numbers. Average daily production grew 8% from the second quarter. Oil volumes grew 16%. Adjusted EBITDA taxrose 35% sequentially to $107.3 million. and our cash flow before working capital changes covered our drilling and completion capital for the quarter.

We are also taking 3 steps today that reflect where the business is going. First, our board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $35 million. Second, we are putting a clearer definition of adjusted free cash flow in front of you, along with the order in which we intend to use it. Third, we continue to evaluate our operating partnerships, and we are excited to name our third operating partner in the Permian and retake free resources.

Kyle will take you through the first 2. Let me start with the quarter in the platform. Third quarter production averaged 34,641 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 55% of it was oil. We placed 9.2 net wells online, most of them in the Permian, and we ended the quarter with 14.6 net wells in process. The other major driver to our quarter-over-quarter EBITDAX growth was natural gas price realization.

Our realized gas price was from $1.12 per Mcf in the second quarter to $3.46 in the third quarter as Waha basis recovered. Kyle will walk you through that in detail because it's a real change in our cash flow. Our operator partnership platform remains the core of our strategy and it directs the majority of our 2026 drilling and completion capital. The advantage starts from sourcing, our partners find and assemble acreage to their own leasing, ground game and operator relationships, so we see opportunities that never reach a marketed process.

We provide the capital -- we underwrite every opportunity to our return threshold, and we control the pace. That is how we've consistently added inventory for under $2.5 million per net Permian location well below where marketed deals command. Admiral Permian Resources has been the flagship of that platform. Today, we are introducing another partner. retic Creek Resources is a Midland-based operator our partnership with them is focused on the Midland Basin.

The core of the group worked at Henry Resources where they drilled, completed and produced more than 200 horizontal wells between 2014 and 2024. We retails management has helped build 5 Permian Basin ventures, including Bold Energy, 1, 2 and 3 and OxboPetroleum, and its business development team has executed more than $8 billion of upstream transactions. retaking Freeport's the same way Admiral does.

This land team builds positions through grassroots leasing and joint ventures with large overlapping asset managers. We provide the capital that we control what is drilled and win. Arete spud its first well under our partnership in October, and we expect them to run a rig during 2027. Outside the Permian, we have built a nonoperated position in the Utica Shale that we're increasingly proud of.

We hold about 6,300 net acres and produce about 3,000 net BOE per day from our interest in over 100 gross producing wells. We built this position from scratch over the past 2 years through a high volume of small deals and count these opportunities among the most economic in our portfolio. During the quarter, we closed 20 acquisitions for $19 million adding 8 net locations at an average entry cost of about $2.4 million per net location.

Also, we divested over $20 million of oil and gas properties in the DJ Basin at a 3.8x forward next 12-month EBITDA multiple. While there's been a lot of volatility at the front end of the , we continue to plan our business around the back of the curve. Every acquisition and every operator partnership well has to clear a full cycle return above 25% at the strip. And in today's backward market, those long-dated barrels are priced at $70 or below. We're not going to chase near-term prices or pay up for assets based on where the front month is trading.

Instead, we will continue to seek longer-dated development opportunities further out on the curve. keep our hedge program discipline and direct any excess cash to the priorities Kyle will lay out. Stepping back, the plan is working. Our traditional non-op business generates steady cash flow across 6 basins and our operator partnerships are compounding inventory and growth. Through the first 9 months of the year, our cash flow before capital changes, has funded our development capital.

Dividends and acquisitions have been funded from the balance sheet, but in 2027, that changes. We expect adjusted free cash flow to fund the dividend and the rest of our capital allocation priorities, leverage falling as our cash flow grows. With that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.

R. Kettler

Thank you, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. This is our strongest quarter of adjusted EBITDAX since we've been a public company, and I'll spend most of my time on what that means for 2027. But first, the results. Oil and natural gas sales were $177.2 million. On a GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $10.1 million or $0.08 per share driven by a $52.7 million loss on commodities derivatives, of which $31.8 million was unrealized.

Adjusted net income was $22.6 million or $0.17 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDAX was $107.3 million, up 36% and from $78.6 million a year ago and 35% from $79.6 million last quarter. Cash flow from operations was $87 million or $96.6 million before working capital changes. Our unhedged realized price was $55.60 per BOE and $49.4 per BOE, excluding settled derivatives. LOE was $30.1 million or $9.43 per BOE down from $10.27 per BOE in the second quarter. Last quarter, we said we expected per unit cost to improve sequentially as new volumes came on and they did. But LOE is still high, mainly from saltwater disposal costs tied to higher water cuts and flowback, along with related surface equipment rentals and contract labor. Production and ad valorem taxes were $10.3 million or 6% of sales. Cash G&A was $8.7 million or $2.73 per BOE. We invested $90.8 million of drilling and completion capital weight and hedges rolling off -- we see 2027 EBITDAX well in excess of the third quarter annualized EBITDAX. With that, I'll turn it back over to you, Tyler.

Tyler Farquharson

Thanks, Kyle. Let me close with 3 points. First, the inflection is underway. Volumes are growing, oil mix is rising, gas realizations have covered and our cash flow is caught up with our development spending. We defined adjusted free cash flow plainly and told you how we will use it. Second, our operator partnership platform is broadening.

With that roll now Retake Creek, have 2 Permian partners sourcing attractively priced locations that extend our controlled development runway. Third, Gray Roth. In August, affiliates of Gray Rock distributed 14 million Brant Ridge shares with the limited partners of Gray Rock Energy Fund III. IROC ownership is now approximately 39% and and Granite Ridge is no longer a controlled company. We are completing the transition to a majority independent Board and fully independent committees within the periods that ICC standards provide.

Gray Rock has indicated that it expects additional distributions. The size and timing of any future distributions are at Gray Rock's discretion, we would refer you to BraRock's Section 13D filings. We view the first distribution as a healthy step. It expanded our float and has meaningfully increased trading liquidity and which makes Brandon reach more investable for a broader set of institutions.

We are excited about where this company is headed and we look forward to delivering on it. With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question or comment comes from the line of Michael Scialla from Stephens.

質疑応答

Michael Scialla

I wanted to get some high-level thoughts, Kyle, you mentioned the slide showing where you think EBITDA will land. Just some of the assumptions built into that production, I guess, should we be thinking kind of high single-digit growth and CapEx kind of flattish year-over-year? Is that fair? Any more you could offer on that?

R. Kettler

That's a completely fair assessment of it. we're targeting just about 10% production growth year-on-year. I think we have a little bit extra weighting on the oil side and that production growth. And then if you take into consideration our hedge book rolling off, those are the really 3 kind of simple key things to look at to pencil out where 2026, Q3 '26 annualized EBITDA goes into '27 estimated on that page.

Michael Scialla

Great. Appreciate that. And Tyler, you mentioned the changes with great rock and changes on the board. Anything we should expect in terms of changes with direction of the company with those.

Tyler Farquharson

The short answer is no, not at all. The Board is completely committed to the strategy that we have laid out. You've seen us transform the business over the past couple of years to be more focused on controllable development via the operator partners. We now have 4 partners. We'll continue to add partners in the future. That's been very successful for us. We've been able to capture inventory at less than $2.5 million per net location in the Permian, which we think is a pretty good value.

So we're moving into a little more maturity with Admiral, obviously, running 2 rigs, but we're excited now that Retake Creek is picking up a rig with us. We've actually drilled a handful of wells with them. already this quarter, and then we expect to run a rig full time with them starting in 2027. So the Board is fully committed to the strategy.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Derek Whitfield from Texas Capital.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with your rate partnership disclosure. How would you characterize the depth of their gross locations, their ability to continue to source inventory and how the quality of the inventory compares versus your average -- the average of your partnerships?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes, you bet. So first, the Renta Creek team is very accomplished on both the commercial side as well as the development side. a large portion of the team came out of Henry Resources. They had a very successful exit a few years ago. chunks of the team have also been involved with various entities that they've built and flipped over the years. They've drilled over 200 horizontal wells over 10 years.

So the development front execution side very accomplished. On the commercial side, equally as accomplished. their business development team and commercial sourcing team is closed over $8 billion of transactions. That is incredible. This is a Midland-based team. They have very deep networks based in Midland. So we're highly confident in their ability to source opportunity that's more proprietary in nature, and we'll continue to build on what we've done with the Admiral team sourcing opportunity from those types of markets as well.

So we're about a year into it with a retake Creek. We like to let teams have some time to build up some inventory in front of them. We're proud to report that Arete's already secured at least half a dozen or so DSUs, 40-something gross locations and has enough for us to commit to picking up a rig with them in 2027. I fully expect them to be able to continue to add a lot more inventory to what they currently have just like our admiral team.

So this is a development strategy first. I'd like to talk about Admiral and Rete is hitting singles over and over again, but driving in a lot of runs. So this is -- they will be focused on the Midland Basin. That's not to say that they won't do deals in other parts of the Permian Basin, but where we expect them to find opportunities in the Midland Basin, and they've done a heck of a job so far.

Derrick Whitfield

Great color. And as my follow-up, I wanted to shift over to your buyback authorization it would seem on our math, which is clearly share price dependent that you guys could buy back a substantial amount of Gray Rock's future distributions. Is that a fair read based on where those lie today?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes, absolutely. We set the authorization of $35 million to start with. Obviously, where the stock is trading, we're trading at less than 2.5x consensus. I think if you look at where we think cash flow potential is for next year, we're trading at even less than that. So we'd love to own more of this company. We set the authorization at $35 million initially. We'll see how that goes. It's completely opportunistic. as Kyle mentioned, and the Board can come back in the future and raise that or cancel it at any time.

So -- we wanted to kind of dip our toe in the water here to start with. We set it pretty low. It's about 5%-ish of current market cap. But we'd love to own more of this business, certainly with where -- the current consensus numbers are at less than 2.5x '27, and we think '27 should even north of where consensus currently is. So Yes. But you're right, we could buy a lot more.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Jeff Grant from Northland Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Grampp

Was CareTyler, on the operator partnership front, given kind of the focus and shift here to free cash flow positive and the progress you've made with the partners you have what's the appetite to add more partnerships?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. We're always -- that's a good question. We're always looking at -- when is the right time to add more. We could. It's something we discuss all the time. I think we'd like to see how '27 goes. We'd like to get a retake Creek and their rigs to. We have a couple of other partners that we haven't discussed with you all yet. that are working on some things in the background that we think could start to layer in, in maybe late '27 and in '28 and beyond.

So we're interested in seeing how those develop over the next, call it, 6, 9 months. So there is some more in the background that we haven't talked with you all about -- we talk a lot about the operator partnership platform. Most of our capital goes into that line of business, but we do have a lot going on in the Utica via our traditional non-op business. We really like the returns there. We've built a position over the past 1.5 years, 2 years of over 6,000 net acres. We've done it at a very attractive entry cost.

That business itself right now is generating about 3,000 BOE a day net to us. We have over 100 gross wells online that we're participating in, and we're continuing to find a ton of opportunity there. So we have the 3 or 4 partners that we've disclosed publicly, there's a few others that are working in the background, plus we have the Utica program up and running. So there's a lot on the plate and we're really excited about where it's headed.

And I think we're happy with where we're at now, and we'll see how '27 goes.

R. Kettler

Yes. I'd add, Tyler, to that. the way this operated partnership business model works is we've got '27 and '28 laid out, and we can start thinking about '29, '30 and '31 in so to your point, Jeff, we can always look into doing more work with existing operator partners as they grow and flourish, and we can look at bringing others into the fold. But we're thinking years down the road now because we've got the near-term set up for us.

Jeffrey Grampp

Great. Super helpful details. My other question is on the acquisition you guys did in the quarter. It looks like the cost per location went up a bit sequentially -- is that just a function of higher commodity prices driving some increased cost while still making sense from a hurdle rate perspective or any other factors driving those specific locations to be a bit more expensive than the recent averages.

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. Yes. No, that's a good question. And $2.5 million per net location is still extremely incredible in our view, and it just continues to build on our track record of what we've been doing in the past couple of years in that space. But Specifically, to answer your question, we did 20 deals during the quarter, we closed 20 deals during the quarter. There was a higher -- I just mentioned how proud we are of the Utica program. There was a higher percentage this quarter of transactions that closed in the Utica.

So those wells in the Utica are of 15,000, 20,000 foot average lateral versus what we're buying in the Permian is normalized to a 10,000-foot lateral. So that's the difference. We're just getting more lateral feet. But on a per foot basis, it's all been consistent and in line with where we've been.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We have a question -- a follow-up from Mr. Michael Scialla from Stephens.

Michael Scialla

Yes. You mentioned, Tyler, that you sold some DJ assets. Just wondering anything else that you could be potentially looking to divest.

Tyler Farquharson

All of that is opportunistic, right? We're not looking to systematically dispose of any assets -- but we do have a large nonoperated footprint across 6 different basins, thousands of wells. So from time to time, there's opportunities that come across our desk that make a lot of sense. I think Kyle will walk you through some of the multiples on why that made sense to us. But from my standpoint, we're always evaluating things in the non-op portfolio.

Again, it's a huge footprint. So from time to time, there are things that are interesting, but it's not a larger strategy of monetizing assets.

R. Kettler

Yes. I'd add that this was largely, I'd say, kind of a cleanup exercise. It was about 800 gross wells, so a good proportion of producing wells with very small working interest. highly gas concentrated asset, too. And so it made sense just when we were taking the portfolio to shed those assets. And it worked out that we got a really good multiple of forward EBITDA at 3.8x.

Michael Scialla

Makes sense. I wanted to ask on your LOE came down a bit in the third quarter from second quarter on per BOE basis, how are you thinking about op costs for 2027. Should we anticipate with the growth that continues to come down? Or just any color you can add there?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. there we still consider the dollar per BOE high. We're going to see aggregate costs going up just because we have production going up. We've increased guidance on LOE as a result. I think as we have -- I guess, you can think about like we had about 18 wells come online in the first 3 quarters of this year, and we've got a number of them coming on in the fourth quarter and then growth '27 -- so I think as we drill more, that number is going to hopefully come off and be close to where we are in guidance.

Michael Scialla

Got it. And on your leverage looks like it's going to come down naturally, I guess, with the EBITDA growth next year? Do you have any plans to try and reduce debt? Or you just kind of let that leverage come down naturally?

Tyler Farquharson

We are fortunate. It looks like with the trajectory of EBITDA leverage on a debt-to-EBITDA basis is going to come down pretty materially. I'd say we got free cash flow going into 2027. that's going to compete with everything else, but we do want to watch it closely and keep a pretty safe balance sheet.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Tyler Farquharson

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.