Nova (NVMI) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：過去最高売上高と第4四半期ガイダンス

主要なポイント

• ノバ・リミテッド（NASDAQ: NVMI）が発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は、前四半期比13%増、前年同期比28%増の2億8,780万ドルとなり、過去最高を記録するとともに会社側ガイダンスの上限を上回った。
• Non-GAAP営業利益率は35.5%に達し、同社の目標モデルである28%〜33%を上回った。Non-GAAP希薄化後EPSは2.86ドルとなった。
• メモリ向けの売上高および受注高は、主にDRAMの生産能力拡大、材料計測におけるサンプリングレートの向上、幅広いアプリケーションへの導入拡大に支えられ、過去最高水準に達した。
• 先端パッケージング分野では、スタンドアローン型寸法計測が過去最高の業績を達成した。10社を超える顧客が「Nova WMC」プラットフォームを発注または検収を完了しており、さらに追加の評価が進められている。
• 経営陣は第4四半期の売上高を3億500万ドル〜3億1,500万ドル、Non-GAAP希薄化後EPSを3.03ドル〜3.18ドルと予想している。同社は2026年に年間売上高10億ドルを突破するペースを維持している。
• 経営陣は、2026年下半期の売上高が2025年下半期比で33%超増加すると見込んでおり、GAA（ゲート・オール・アラウンド）、先端DRAM、HBM関連の支出を含め、2027年に向けて投資ミックスがより良好になるとみている。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

メモリが主要な成長牽引役となった。主に好調なDRAM需要を背景に、売上高と受注高は過去最高を記録した。インライン型（統合型）計測は先端DRAMの生産能力拡大の恩恵を受け、XPS需要は顧客によるサンプリングレートの引き上げや適用分野の拡大に伴って増加した。経営陣によると、主要顧客のファブにおける導入台数は1拠点あたり最大9台に達しているという。

先端パッケージング分野も、スタンドアローン型寸法計測で過去最高を記録した。ノバはOSAT（半導体後工程受託製造）顧客向け売上高の好調と、ロジックおよび広帯域幅メモリ（HBM）アプリケーション全般における「Nova WMC」の継続的な採用を報告した。また、材料計測および化学計測もHBM関連工程への採用が広がっている。

先端ロジック需要は引き続き堅調に推移した。経営陣によると、GAA（ゲート・オール・アラウンド）製造ではFinFETと比較して約30%高い計測強度が必要とされ、ノバのシェアは各顧客のGAA用途においてより高い水準にあるという。同社は2024年から2026年までのGAA関連累計売上高5億ドルの達成に向けて順調に進捗している。

前工程の化学計測では、「AncoScene」が大手ファウンドリによる検収を完了し、量産向けにリリースされた。ノバによると、同プラットフォームは複数の地域でさらなる顧客浸透の段階を進んでいる。

装置の設置基盤の拡大に伴い、サービス売上高も過去最高を更新した。先端ノード製造を支援するアップグレードがけん引し、付加価値サービス売上高は前年同期比で約50%増加した。

ノバは需要に対応するため生産能力を増強している。アジアの新たなクリーンルームが年末までに稼働を開始する見通しであり、生産能力が増強されるとともに、顧客や現地サプライヤーにより近い場所での生産が可能になる。

経営陣のガイダンス

2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は以下の見通しを示した。

この見通しの中央値に基づき、ノバは通年で過去最高売上高を再び更新すると見込んでいる。経営陣は、2026年の年間売上高が10億ドルを超え、5カ年中期戦略計画よりも1年前倒しでこの節目を達成する見込みであると述べた。同社は第3四半期時点で、過去12カ月間（TTM）の累計売上高ですでに10億ドルを突破していた。

2027年について、経営陣はGAA投資の勢い、2桁成長が続くDRAM設備投資、1cや1dを含む先端DRAMへの移行、HBMの生産能力拡大、顧客への採用拡大が追い風になると予想している。また、年間を通じて四半期ごとの成長（前期比増）を見込んでいるものの、2027年の正式な財務ガイダンスは示さなかった。

リスク要因および注視すべき点

• 業界の急速な拡大により、サプライチェーンへの負荷が高まっている。ノバは既存サプライヤーと長期的な生産能力確保に向けて連携するとともに、サプライヤー基盤の拡大や自社の製造インフラへの投資を進めている。
• 経営陣は、ウエハ製造装置（WFE）投資に対するノバの成長率は、ノードや構造（アーキテクチャ）ごとの投資ミックスによって変動し得ると述べた。
• 2027年下半期には、XPS材料計測市場に新規競合が参入する可能性がある。ノバは競争優位性を維持するため、より高性能な製品の開発と保有コスト（CoO）の低減に投資を行っている。
• 「Metrion」はリードタイムが比較的長いものの、主要顧客5社のうち4社が量産、展開プログラム、または評価プロセスですでに同プラットフォームを採用している。
• 経営陣は第4四半期以降にコスト増を見込んでいるものの、出荷量の増加、業務効率化、製品の改良、価格改定によってそれらを相殺できると考えている。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、2027年の設備投資ミックスがノバにとって一段と良好になると説明した。GAAの計測強度はFinFETより約30%高く、先端DRAM、HBM、そして市場への新規参入者がアプリケーションの浸透と顧客層の拡大をもたらす可能性がある。

メモリに関して、経営陣は生産能力の拡大に加え、ノバの寸法・材料・化学計測ポートフォリオの採用拡大が力強い成長をもたらしたと説明した。2027年には「4F-Square」への移行に関連する初期パイロットが予定されており、プロセス制御の強度がさらに高まる可能性がある。

ノバは2027年下半期頃にXPS分野で競合が出現する可能性があるとみているが、材料計測ポートフォリオ全体に及ぶものではないとしている。同社は性能を高め、保有コスト（CoO）を改善した新たなXPS製品を開発中である。

経営陣は、主要ターゲット顧客5社のうち4社が量産、展開拡大、または評価を通じて「Metrion」を採用したと述べた。ノバは2027年に5社目の獲得を目指している。

収益性に関して、経営陣は第4四半期のNon-GAAP粗利益率見通しを約59%で維持し、現時点で粗利益率に対する具体的な逆風は見当たらないと述べた。四半期ごとの利益率は約1パーセントポイント変動する可能性がある。

決算説明会 トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Nova Limited Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Miri Segal, CEO of MS-IR. Please go ahead.

Miri Segal-Scharia

Thanks, operator, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Nova's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. With us on the line today are Gaby Waisman, President and CEO; and Guy Kizner, CFO.

Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that certain information provided on this call may contain forward-looking statements, and the safe harbor statement outlined in today's earnings release also pertains to this call. If you have not received a copy of the release, please view it in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

Gaby will begin the call with a business update, followed by Guy with a financial overview. We will then open the call for the question-and-answer session.

I will now turn the call over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO. Gaby, please go ahead.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Miri, and thank you all for joining us today. I will start the call by summarizing our third quarter performance highlights. Following my commentary, Guy will review the quarterly financial results in detail. We delivered another record quarter, exceeding the top end of our guidance with revenue reaching approximately $288 million and growing 28% year-over-year as well as record profitability. This performance was driven in part by record revenue from memory and advanced packaging segments. The strength of the quarter was reflected in outstanding performance in multiple product lines. We achieved record results across integrated metrology, stand-alone dimensional metrology and chemical metrology solutions, coupled with record service revenue.

These results manifest the continued industry momentum as well as the proliferation of our portfolios across regions, customers, market segments and critical applications. Our healthy pipeline continues to provide solid visibility into customer demand. Furthermore, we now guide the second half of 2026 to grow more than 33% compared to the second half of 2025, demonstrating an accelerating momentum of our business into 2027. The semiconductor industry's investment momentum is substantial. The mounting requirements for computing power, memory and connectivity are driving increased investments in advanced logic, memory and packaging nodes. We see this reflected in robust demand across our customer base as our industry continues to expand capacity and transitions to more advanced manufacturing technologies. These trends reinforce our confidence in demand durability.

For Nova, the opportunity is shaped not only by the overall level of industry investment, but also by the split to specific nodes and architectures. As spending shifts towards more complex designs and applications, including gate-all-around, the need for advanced process control and the intensity of metrology keep climbing. While we grow at a fast pace, our growth relative to WFE may vary from time to time depending on the investment mix. Our objective remains to outperform the market over time while continuing to leverage opportunities created by capacity expansions and unique value offerings.

Memory was an important growth engine this quarter, reaching record levels of both revenue and bookings, primarily driven by strong DRAM demand. This performance was supported equally by our dimensional and materials metrology solutions. Our integrated metrology products benefited from capacity expansions in advanced DRAM manufacturing. In materials metrology, demand for our XPS solution continued to grow as customers increased sampling rates and expanded the platform's use into new applications, increasing tool utilization. This translates into a growing number of tools per fab at leading memory customers, including a significant order from a major customer that further solidified the demand profile in 2027.

Advanced packaging was another significant contributor during the quarter with record performance of our stand-alone dimensional metrology solutions and continued strong momentum across the portfolio. Our sales to OSAT customers picked up significantly, and we see multiple opportunities to expand our presence in this market. We are particularly pleased with the continued adoption of the Nova WMC platform across both logic and HBM applications and across a broad geographic footprint with more than 10 customers having placed orders or completing acceptance of the platform and additional evaluations underway.

Alongside growing application content in dimensional metrology, we see adoption of our materials metrology solutions in HBM-related applications, complemented by strong performance from our chemical metrology portfolio. Together, these developments are expanding Nova's participation across the evolving advanced packaging ecosystem. Advanced logic sustained its robust momentum during the quarter, driven by healthy demand. Looking ahead, as investment mix increasingly shifts towards gate-all-around devices, we expect a step function in the number of tools needed to support process complexity and metrology requirements and in the value provided by our Nova PRISM platform.

The logic segment also represents an opportunity for our front-end chemical metrology. During the quarter, the AncoScene platform successfully completed acceptance and release for high-volume manufacturing by a leading foundry, and it continues to grow in both market share and customer base. These developments broaden our opportunity in advanced logic and reinforce the increasing relevance of our portfolio. Nova's growing installed base continued to drive record service revenue with strong performance in every region. Customers remain focused on maximizing production capacity, which increases the importance of tool availability, productivity and robustness. These dynamics drove approximately 50% year-over-year growth in value-added services revenue, led by strong demand for upgrades supporting advanced node production.

As our installed base expands, we see further opportunities to deliver value throughout the life cycle of our solutions. As our business continues to scale alongside industry demand, we remain focused on ensuring that our operational infrastructure and supply chain can support our growth and meet our customer commitments. We are working closely with our suppliers to align capacity and planning with our needs while continuing to strengthen the resilience and breadth of our supply base. At the same time, we're expanding our own manufacturing capacity, including the new cleanroom in Asia, which is expected to become operational by year-end.

Our outstanding execution this quarter, combined with a robust outlook for the fourth quarter, puts us on track to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue, reaching this important milestone a year ahead of our current 5-year strategic plan. With a strong pipeline, extended customer visibility and an increasingly favorable industry investment mix, we believe Nova is well positioned to carry this momentum into 2027. We look forward to discussing the next chapter of Nova's journey at our Investor Day on March 9, 2027, in New York City, where we will present our future strategy and provide greater insight into the market and technology transitions ahead, the opportunities they create and how we are aligning our portfolio and investments to drive Nova's next phase of growth.

Now for some more details on our financials, let me hand over the call to Guy.

Guy Kizner

Thanks, Gaby. Good day, everyone. I will begin by reviewing our third quarter financial achievements and then provide guidance for the fourth quarter. We delivered another quarter of record results, generating $287.8 million in revenue, our third consecutive quarter of all-time high. Revenue exceeded our guidance and increased 13% quarter-over-quarter and 28% year-over-year. This achievement is a testament to the strength of our core offerings as well as our ability to capture and respond to the continued demand in the market. Product revenue distribution was approximately 61% from logic and foundry and 39% from memory and others. Product revenues included 4 customers and 4 territories, which contributed each 10% or more to product revenues.

In the third quarter, gross margin was 57.7% on a GAAP basis and 59.1% on a non-GAAP basis. These strong margin levels reflect the high value of our product delivered to customers. Combined with record revenue, they enable us to generate another quarter of strong profitability. As expected, operating expense increased to $73.3 million on a GAAP basis and $68 million on a non-GAAP basis as we continue to invest in innovation and future growth opportunities. The increase was driven primarily by higher R&D spending to support our product road map and technology leadership as well as costs related to ongoing strategic evaluations.

Operating margins in the third quarter reached 32% on a GAAP basis and 35.5% on a non-GAAP basis, surpassing the upper range of our target model of 28% to 33%. These results highlight our ability to translate revenue growth into profitable expansion. The effective tax rate in the third quarter was approximately 18%. Earnings per diluted share in the third quarter on a GAAP basis were $2.64 per diluted share, and earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis were $2.86 per diluted share, exceeding the high end of our third quarter guidance.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $1.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, bank deposits, and marketable securities. Our free cash flow for the third quarter reached $132 million, bringing total positive free cash flow for the first 3 quarters of 2026 to approximately $206 million. This performance highlights the strong cash-generating capability of the business and the quality of earnings. In addition, consistent with our balanced capital allocation strategy, we repurchased approximately $38.5 million of shares during the quarter, following the $200 million share repurchase authorization announced in September.

Next, I'd like to outline our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. We currently expect revenues for the quarter to be between $305 million and $315 million. GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $2.78 to $2.94 (sic) [ $2.93 ]. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $3.03 to $3.18. At the midpoint of our fourth quarter 2026 estimates, we anticipate the following: Gross margins of approximately 57% on a GAAP basis and approximately 59% on a non-GAAP basis. Operating expense on a GAAP basis to increase to approximately $78 million. Operating expense on a non-GAAP basis to increase to approximately $72 million. Financial income on a non-GAAP basis is expected to increase to approximately $18.7 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting the higher cash balance on hand. Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 17%.

Before I conclude my remarks, I would like to highlight that based on the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect to finish 2026 with another year of record revenues. Moreover, in the third quarter, we surpassed our long-term milestone of $1 billion in revenue on the last 12-month basis and delivered profitability at the high end of our target range, both achieved a full year ahead of our original plan. Reaching these milestones ahead of schedule is a testament to the strength of our business model, the disciplined execution of our strategy and the significant value our process control portfolio creates for customers. Most importantly, it reflects our ability to consistently generate attractive returns and long-term value for our shareholders.

With that, we will be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

質疑応答

Atif Malik

Gaby, you talked about objectives to outperform WFE, which is a function of spending mix. So when you look at DRAM versus foundry logic mix next year with higher gate-all-around mix and new logic project, do you think that spending mix closes the gap from this year and helps Nova outperform?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Atif, for the question. So let me perhaps give some color to what makes the 2027 investment mix more favorable for us, for Nova. So I'll start with gate-all-around. First, we see some shift towards incremental investments in gate-all-around where intensity of metrology increases by about 30% compared to FinFET. And our Nova share in gate-all-around across all players is higher as well. So that also supports the increase. In memory, we do expect continued strong double-digit growth in DRAM investments and moving to some more advanced DRAM nodes moving to such as 1c, 1d, whereas we will see some additional intensity, including in materials metrology, where we see increased sampling, new applications and higher tool utilization, which drives an increase in numbers of tools per fab, which reached up to 9. Obviously, process control intensity in memory is lower than logic as a whole, but we do see some positive trend in that vector.

And the advanced packaging and specifically in HBM, we continue to see the capacity expansion, the process complexity driving our business. And we see some -- as I mentioned during the transcript, I do see some adoption in OSATs of some of our tools as a result of those players capitalizing on leading manufacturers' advanced packaging tool selections that were already made. And last but not least, we do see some new customers and entrants into the market. And those participants create additional opportunities for us to broaden our customer base and footprint.

So overall, what I see is that 2027 combines both the WFE growth with an investment mix favorable for Nova and some opportunities for increased application penetration and expansion of our market share. So I do anticipate this momentum to drive into next year. I would also say that we do see some linearity in the business in the quarter-over-quarter growth next year in that respect.

Atif Malik

Very helpful. And Guy, on the topic of supply chain, there are some concerns in the market that shortages of components like gas delivery and optical could limit the ability to ship more. Are you seeing any issues with Nova or your ability to ship more products or the bottlenecks elsewhere?

Gabriel Waisman

We are seeing -- we're definitely seeing this rapid industry ramp, stretching our supply chain, and we're taking steps to ensure that we keep delivering and maintaining our commitment to customers in spite of it. Supply chain resilience remains an area that requires active management attention and mitigation. We're working very closely with both existing suppliers on long-term capacity initiatives while also striving to broaden our supply chain and investing in Nova's own manufacturing infrastructure. I did mention our new cleanroom in Asia, and that supports our operational agility, provides us more capacity as part of our long-term plan. It's closer to customers, by the way, and definitely broadens the local supply chain ecosystem for us.

Operator

The next question comes from Shane Brett with Morgan Stanley.

Shane Brett

My first question is on memory. Even if I assume your memory revenue is flat quarter-over-quarter into December, it would imply your memory revenue is up north of 60%, which is seriously impressive, especially given we've not necessarily had a huge technology inflection in the front end this year. Just what is driving this really impressive memory growth for Nova? And how do you think about just kind of inflections into next year for memory that could drive even more outperformance?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Shane. So we did indicate the fact that this quarter, we had about 39% of our business coming from memory and others. And we do forecast that our memory revenue this year to have a strong double-digit growth. And we do see some similar trends into next year as well. It's coming mostly from capacity expansions. You mentioned some transitions, and there are definitely some transitions that are providing some gradual increase in intensity as a result of architectural changes. And we definitely see some initial pilots next year with the transition to 4F-Square that will further increase the process control intensity for those customers.

So the opportunity in general is diverse and comes from our entire product portfolio. For the dimensional metrology, it's both the capacity expansion and an increasing intensity in HBM. In the materials metrology, we see increased sampling rates, new applications and all of that is driving additional tools per fab. I mentioned reaching the bar of 9 with leading customers. And in chemical metrology, it's definitely the growing adoption of our front-end solutions.

Shane Brett

Got it. That's great to hear. And for my follow-up, I'd love to hear about the competitive environment in material metrology. You pioneered this market have driven adoption with customers. If we do see competition emerge, how do you think this market will change for you?

Gabriel Waisman

So we anticipated the competition in material metrology. I indicated that a few times in the past. And it's a testament to the fact that this is becoming a meaningful process control area for both customers and obviously, for peers and competitors. We see new entrants that will come and compete probably towards the second half of next year. And we are investing considerably in order to maintain a very significant competitive gap to make it very challenging for new entrants. But we do welcome the competition. And again, it indicates the importance of this market and the fact that it will continue to grow and be very attractive in terms of the importance it possesses with our customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Michael Mani with Bank of America.

Michael Mani

To start, could you give us a sense of where foundry and logic and memory end up for Q4? And the basis for that question is, when I look at your -- where your foundry and logic growth is tracking overall for this year, it seems to be maybe a little bit more muted, especially relative to memory, trailing behind overall foundry logic as we see it. What -- how should we interpret that? Is that more of a digestion sort of period after multiple years of very strong growth in that segment? Is it more of a mix factor or a timing factor? And is it really just gate-all-around coming back next year that could help return that part of your business to growth?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Michael. So I wouldn't say it's muted. We do see meaningful growth for us in logic -- logic and foundry. In both advanced and mature nodes, by the way, and I'll speak to it a bit later. In the advanced logic nodes, the transition to gate-all-around is definitely increasing intensity overall. And I believe that it will also help our growth in that respect, both the intensity as well as our share with the customers. And talking about logic, I would indicate the mature nodes, especially China, whereas in the third quarter, we did see an increase in both revenue and in share of sales. But overall, this year, we expect China's share to be lower than 2025, but still nominally grow.

Michael Mani

Got it. And for my follow-up, I think on Metrion, you've mentioned before [indiscernible] that all 5 major customers by end of next year. I think qualifications are still progressing. So how many of the 5 are fully manufactured today versus still in qualification? What do you see as the time line and the gating factors for the remaining ones to get to that milestone?

Gabriel Waisman

So we currently -- it's a great question. Thank you, Michael. We do see right now 4 out of the 5 already adopting the Metrion either in high-volume manufacturing proliferation or evaluations. I do hope to conclude the fifth next year. And we see strong demand for the Metrion. There are longer lead times for this tool, but we're very encouraged by the market demand.

Operator

And the next question comes from Charles Shi with Needham.

Yu Shi

Maybe first, I want to clarify and maybe help us unpack the Q3 results and Q4 guidance a little bit. I think that roughly 90 days ago, we were under the impression that half-over-half growth for this year is probably in the high-teens range. And obviously, I think it's going to beat and raise quarter-to-quarter. That's what Nova does. But now based on your guidance, it seems like it's going to be half-over-half, 22%. Wonder if relative to the expectation, what has changed and what's driving the upside? That's the first question.

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Charles. I believe that it's more or less in line with our initial expectations. So I don't think that we deviate from the previous forecast and expectation of having a stronger second half to the first one. It might be a bit higher in terms of the strength, but it's still in line with the expectation. But we are doing -- we are encouraged, as I mentioned before, by the momentum, and we expect it to continue next year as well.

Yu Shi

Maybe a follow-up question on material, the competition new entrants you mentioned about and we know you have X-ray, you have Raman, you have SIMS, and these are all material technologies. But where exactly -- which technology you are seeing new entrants, especially if it's X-ray, can you be a little bit more specific because there are all kinds of X-ray technology, XRF/XPS is where you play, but there is X-ray CT, there's X-ray SDD. So kind of unpack a little bit for us what the new entrants you are seeing and that -- how you intend to maintain your competitive lead?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Charles. So definitely, thank you for the question. The competition we are seeing or we will see, it's not here yet, and we need to be a bit more cautious about it. We'll probably see something initial. I'm not sure that it will be meaningful, but towards the second half of next year, but it's centered around XPS only. So we don't see this across the board in our material metrology portfolio, but XPS only. Nova does have a very extensive XPS plus XRF portfolio. We are not selling, by the way, XRF as a stand-alone tool. It's a part or an addition to the XPS capabilities, augmenting the overall application space and value of the tool.

The investment, as always, is on the 2-pronged approach on both technology and cost of ownership. So we are investing significantly, and we're releasing new products, new XPS products that are providing higher performance and better cost of ownership. And we've doubled down on investments in order to make sure that future generations of tools will have a very significant gap in offering value to customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

Robert Smith

This is Trip Smith on for Tom O'Malley. I was just curious if you could expand on the qualification and completed acceptance of the AncoScene product. I was just curious if there was like a timing on that after the high-volume manufacturing by the leading foundry. And then any kind of color on the competitive space in the front-end chemicals metrology area versus like the larger incumbent and how you're gaining share there?

Gabriel Waisman

Definitely. So first of all, I'll start with saying that front-end chemical metrology extends our chemical metrology presence beyond our historical strength in back-end application. And the first quarter was a record quarter for chemical metrology in general, where specifically the AncoScene completed acceptance and was released into HBM as a leading foundry. And we're currently at additional customer penetration stages, and we gained market share, which is occurring across several geographies. We have one competitor in the chemical metrology front-end space, which is KLA, and we are offering very unique value to our customers in that -- with that tool.

Robert Smith

And then maybe just as a follow-up. I think we've heard a little bit about this in the industry, but based on your guide, it kind of implies a flattish to down gross margin. I was just curious if that's coming from continued memory headwinds or broader supply constraints and how you guys are managing those.

Guy Kizner

Yes. So we -- our gross margin this quarter was 59%, and we guided next quarter also 59%. So we don't see a reduction. Obviously, the gross margin for the next quarter can fluctuate plus/minus 1%, but we don't see currently any headwinds on the gross margin side.

Operator

And the next question comes from Vedvati Shrotre with Evercore ISI.

Vedvati Shrotre

So you've previously outlined $500 million revenue opportunity with -- cumulative revenue opportunity through '26, right? Where do we stand against that today? And with TSMC expecting N2 or their -- N2 capacity almost doubling in 2027, like how should we think about your annual gate-all-around revenues next year? Could they scale similarly? Like could you see them double?

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Vedvati, for the question. We are on track with the accumulated revenue from '24 to '26 of a total of $500 million. And we are very encouraged by the shift towards increasing investments in gate-all-around. I definitely believe that this is providing a tailwind for the company. I think it's a bit early to assess or provide some color on the number, but we do see growth year-over-year in our gate-all-around process control revenue.

Vedvati Shrotre

Understand. And for my follow-up question on gross margins, I understand you'll be flat in December quarter. But as we go through the year, could you talk about the headwinds you're seeing or the tailwinds you're seeing? Like one aspect is you're also expanding your manufacturing facilities in Asia. So what would be the impact of that to the gross margins?

Guy Kizner

Yes. So when we are looking beyond fourth quarter, we do see cost increase, but the cost increase is being offset by better operational efficiency and higher volumes. We also typically adjust pricing when we introduce new capabilities that add value for our customers, whether through unique metrology capabilities or productivity improvements. And as we mentioned on the last earnings call, we do have several initiatives already in the pipeline that we expect to announce in the future, which should further support this trend.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining our call today.

Operator

The conference has concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.