カーライル・グループ (CG) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：投資回収と資金調達が成長を牽引

米カーライル・グループ（NASDAQ: CG）の2026年度第3四半期決算は、エグジット（投資回収）の増加に加え、資金調達の勢いや手数料発生待ち資産が寄与し、2027年および2028年の成長加速に向けた経営陣の見通しを後押しする内容となった。

主要なポイント

• 分配可能利益（DE）は、四半期の純実現パフォーマンス収入が5倍の1億ドルに急増したことなどが寄与し、前年同期比17%増の4億3300万ドル（1株当たり1.12ドル）となった。
• 手数料関連利益（FRE）は2億9300万ドル、マージンは47%となった。年初来のFREは過去最高の9億5000万ドルに達し、経営陣は通期のFREもカーライル史上最高水準になると見込んでいる。
• カーライルは当四半期に110億ドル、年初来で410億ドルを調達した。経営陣は第4四半期の資金流入額を少なくとも200億ドルと予想しており、通期の資金流入額は約600億ドルに達する見通しである。
• 手数料発生待ちの運用資産残高（AUM）は前年同期比で約50%増の280億ドルに達した。この資金の手数料発生が完全に始まれば、年換算で2億3000万ドル超の運用管理手数料が生み出される見込みである。
• カーライルは過去1年間でグローバル・プライベート・エクイティの投資家に240億ドルを還元した。コーポレート・プライベート・エクイティ全体での分配額は公正価値の21%に相当し、経営陣によるとこれは業界平均のほぼ2倍に達するという。
• 同社は当四半期末時点で940億ドルの利用可能資金（ドライパウダー）を保有しており、2027年から2028年にかけて続く複数年の資金調達サイクルの初期段階にあると説明した。

主要財務データ

事業および運用実績

グローバル・クレジット

グローバル・クレジット部門の年初来FREは前年同期比8%増の3億2400万ドルと過去最高を記録した。第3四半期のFREは、運用管理手数料の10%増に支えられ、前年同期比11%増の9300万ドルとなった。

同部門の当四半期の資金流入額は70億ドルを記録し、期末のAUMは2070億ドルとなった。資金投入額はリキッド・クレジット、航空機、オポチュニスティック・クレジット戦略を中心に計50億ドルに達した。また、カーライルは第4四半期に77億ドル規模のアセットバック・ファイナンス取引を完了したが、経営陣によるとバランスシートへの資金コミットメントは不要であったという。

グローバル・プライベート・エクイティ

グローバル・プライベート・エクイティ部門の分配可能利益は、実現パフォーマンス収入の改善を背景に前年同期比60%超増の2億3700万ドルとなった。FREは1億3100万ドル、手数料対象AUMは計960億ドルに達した。

当四半期の投資回収額は57億ドル、直近12カ月間では240億ドルに達した。資金投入額は約40億ドルとなり、これにはカーライルの新たな防衛・産業プラットフォームによる第1号案件が含まれる。

カーライルは、2026年度第4四半期または2027年中に完了が見込まれる約60億ドルのエグジット契約を締結済みである。また、決算説明会の時点で、上場ポートフォリオ保有資産の価値は第3四半期末から17%上昇しており、ファンド投資家にとって10億ドル超の追加価値に相当する。

ウェルスおよびエバーグリーン戦略

経営陣によると、ウェルス（富裕層向け）チャネルからの資金流入は直近12カ月間で24%増加し、ウェルス関連AUMは前年同期比30%増となった。あるプライベート・エクイティ商品は決算説明会の直前にAUMが10億ドルを突破した。

足元のウェルス分野の成長は主にエバーグリーン型商品によって牽引されている。カーライルは、2027年および2028年にかけて旗艦ファンドの追加募集が進むにつれて、ドローダウン型戦略の比重が高まると見込んでいる。

資本管理

カーライルの当四半期末時点のバランスシート資産は70億ドル超（1株当たり約20ドルに相当）となった。同社は普通株1株当たり0.35ドルの四半期配当を発表した。

年初来で第3四半期の450万株を含む1500万株を自社株買いまたは源泉徴収した。年間で発行済株式数は約2%減少し、同社の20億ドルの自社株買い承認枠のうち14億ドルが残されている。

経営陣の業績見通し

経営陣は、2026年のFRE成長率について、概ね1桁台半ばの成長という計画に沿っているものの、資金フロー次第では最終結果がわずかに下回り、1〜2パーセントポイント変動する可能性があると述べた。

カーライルは第4四半期に少なくとも200億ドルの資金流入を見込んでおり、同社にとって最も好調な資金調達四半期の一つとなる見通しである。通期の資金流入額は約600億ドルに達し、前年比で10%以上上回ると予想されている。

経営陣は、次世代の旗艦ファンドの手数料発生が開始されるため、2027年に手数料収入が大幅に増加すると見込んでいる。280億ドルの手数料発生待ちAUMは、2027年および2028年にかけての増収に寄与する見通しであり、過去の実績では、クレジットの資金投下状況にもよるが、手数料発生までにおよそ12〜24カ月を要している。

リスク要因および注視すべき点

• 経営陣は、根強いインフレを背景に高金利が長期化すると予想している。金利上昇により、第3四半期中にフォーティテュードの報告ベースの公正価値は約50億ドル減少したが、経営陣はこれが資金流出や運用資産自体の変化を意味するものではないと強調した。
• 資金調達の時期は、マクロ経済動向、契約書類手続き、投資家の季節的要因に依然として左右されやすい。第4四半期に予定されていたいくつかのファンド募集完了は、2027年第1四半期にずれ込む可能性がある。
• プライベート・クレジットは年頭に業界全体で解約圧力に直面した。カーライルは解約水準が安定し、減少し始めていると述べた。
• カーライルは、AIやデータセンター関連のクレジット組成、担保、集中した資金流入に対して慎重な姿勢を崩していない。経営陣は市場の不透明感が払拭されるにつれて投資機会は改善すると見込んでいるものの、分散投資を維持する方針である。
• 取引手数料およびアドバイザリー手数料は、投資、ファイナンス、エグジット活動のタイミングに収益が左右されるため、四半期ごとにばらつきが生じる可能性がある。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

アナリストは投資回収パイプラインとそれが資金調達に与える影響に強い関心を示した。経営陣は、特にプライベート・エクイティにおいて資本の投資家還元が重要な差別化要因であり続けており、CP9、防衛・産業、クレジット、その他の戦略全般における資金調達を後押ししていると述べた。

CP9について、経営陣は今後数カ月以内のファーストクローズを見込んでいる。以前報告された50億ドルのコーナーストーン・コミットメントは、そのクローズ額を上回る追加資本ではなく、同クローズの一部を構成することになる。

2027年のFRE成長に関して、経営陣は既存のドライパウダー、資金投入、新規調達のそれぞれの寄与度を個別に示すことは控えた。それでも、新たな旗艦ファンド、手数料発生の開始、資本市場活動、取引手数料が一体となって成長を支えると確信を示した。

経営陣はまた、投資先企業のレバレッジに対する保守的なアプローチを改めて強調した。カーライルは、借り換えや金利低下よりも、業務改善、カーブアウトの実行、ロールアップ戦略、マーケティング、AIおよびデータサイエンスの活用こそが、より重要な企業価値創造の牽引役であると述べた。

決算説明会 全トランスクリプト

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決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Carlyle Group's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Daniel Harris

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer, Justin Plouffe.

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We will have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section or annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. In order to ensure participation by everyone on the call today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups.

And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

Harvey Schwartz

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered a strong quarter -- strong third quarter for our shareholders with distributable earnings of $1.12 per share one of our best quarters ever, this is up 17% from a year ago and driven by a fivefold increase in net realized performance revenues. More importantly, we continue to build momentum across the global platform as we execute our strategic plans. We have a near record level of pending fee-earning AUM that was resulting more than $230 million in new management fees when activated. We continue to lead the industry in returning capital with distributions where our clients approaching $100 billion since the beginning of 2024, and we are just in the early stages of a powerful fundraising super cycle that will accelerate growth over the next several years.

Before I walk through the highlights, I want to spend a few minutes on the macro environment. The first observation I'll make is that the underlying economic engine remains quite strong. Our Carlyle economic indicators systematically roll up time series data across all of our portfolio companies, which collectively employ approximately 750,000 people. This gives us a unique perspective on underlying economic activity. The data shows that annualized revenues grew at 6%, while EBITDA grew at a double-digit rate. This points to a durable and healthy economy, showing resiliency even during periods when market sentiment has been more volatile. The strong economy in combination with sticky inflation reinforces our long-held view that rates will stay higher for longer. That view reflects more than 5 years of inflation above the Fed's target.

We've been adapting this higher environment for a long time and have found that a more normalized cost of capital towards disciplined underwriting, operational experts and global scale, all of which are Carlyle strengths. At the same time, geopolitical dynamics are reshaping the global investment landscape. In nearly every conversation with clients and government officials, new priorities come up security and economic growth. whether it's national security, energy security or data security, those priorities are driving enormous demand for capital in areas where we have deep expertise.

With U.S. midterm elections behind us, the results were more decisive than expected, but the outcome was largely as anticipated. The favorable market reaction is consistent with historical trends as greater clarity on the political landscape helps reduce uncertainty. And as I've said before, confidence is the greatest selector for markets. Now a few highlights from the quarter. First, in global private equity, we remain a significant outlier in returning capital to our clients. Across our global private equity segment, we returned $24 billion to our clients over the past year and drilling down into corporate private equity we returned 21% of fair value to investors over the past year. That's nearly double the industry average and represents levels not seen since 2021.

As a firm, we made a strategic decision to monetize assets and return capital to investors, substantial liquidity we've delivered over the past several years has addressed investors' needs and contributed directly to our success in attracting new capital. Second, we continue to see real operating momentum in Global Credit. During the quarter, we brought in more than $7 billion of inflows into Global Credit, Fortitude reinsurance transaction with Unum Group, which closed earlier this week, we had more than $5 billion to our AUM in the fourth quarter. More recently, we announced a $7.7 billion asset-backed finance transaction with [ Truvis ] Financial Corporation, which shows how we're helping banks manage their balance sheet while giving our investors access with an attractive set of investment opportunities.

These transactions underscore the accelerating demand for the strategy we built in private credit and insurance. Third, we have systematically diversified our revenue stream over the last 3 years. Transaction fees over the past year are a record $164 million, more than 3x the 2023 level. We've also delivered record year-to-date fee-related performance revenue driven by record AUM in our global wealth platform. Looking ahead, we're seeing strong momentum across our businesses, and we expect the fourth quarter to be one of our strongest ever for inflows, which Justin will discuss shortly. To wrap up, the forward momentum across our global platform is exceptional. We're delivering for our shareholders and are well positioned to build on that success in 2027 and beyond.

With that, let me turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Plouffe

Thanks, Harvey, and good morning, everyone. We delivered a strong third quarter with a step-up in realizations and healthy net realized performance revenue. We generated distributable earnings of $433 million in the third quarter or $1.12 per share. That's up 17% from a year ago. Year-to-date, distributable earnings were $1.2 billion or $3.08 per share. Fee-related earnings were $293 million at a 47% margin. And year-to-date, FRE was a record $950 million. As we look forward, we expect full year FRE to be the highest in our firm's history. Fund management fees were $1.65 billion year-to-date and were $547 million in the quarter. We expect management fees to step up meaningfully in 2027 as we activate the next generation of our flagship funds.

Transaction fees were a record $197 million year-to-date, up 25% compared to the same period last year and $33 million in the quarter. Fee-related performance revenues were also a record at $184 million year-to-date, up 46% compared to the same period last year and were $50 million in the quarter. Net realized performance revenues were $235 million year-to-date and our third quarter result of $100 million increased fivefold from a year ago. This increase was driven by a diverse set of strategies in private equity and our global energy platform. Realized proceeds from our carry funds were $28 billion year-to-date, up 25% from the prior period and were $9 billion in the third quarter. Net accrued performance revenues were $2.1 billion, on a per share basis, this equates to over $6 per share of future earnings power.

Turning now to inflows. We raised $41 billion year-to-date and $11 billion in the quarter. we expect to close out the year with 1 of our best ever inflow quarters in Q4 with at least $20 billion of inflows expected, including the $5 billion transaction in the Unum Group that Harvey mentioned earlier. That is expected to bring full year inflows to about $60 billion, more than 10% above last year's level. As of the third quarter, total AUM was $479 million, and even more importantly, pending fee-earning AUM rose to $28 billion, up almost 50% year-over-year and nearly the highest level in the firm's history. That pending amount reflects a diverse set of strategies that have raised capital but have not yet activated fees, and it will give us more than $230 million of annualized management fees once fully activated. We expect this capital to be a key driver of our top line growth in 2027.

Again, this is important to note, we remain at the very beginning of our multiyear fundraising super cycle. We ended the quarter with $94 billion of available capital for investment, also approaching the highest level in firm history. This capital is spread across all 3 segments with $40 billion in global private equity, in Carlyle Alpinvest and $22 billion in Global Credit. Now let me turn to the individual segments, starting with Global Credit. Fee-related earnings were a record $324 million year-to-date, up 8% compared to the same period last year. For the third quarter, fee-related earnings were $93 million, 11% higher than a year ago driven by 10% increase in management fees. Fee-related performance revenues in Global Credit continued to build with $120 million year-to-date, up 40% compared to last year.

Total AUM ended the quarter at $207 billion, which was supported by $7 billion of inflows, including a strong first close in our latest Vince opportunistic credit fund. Deployment was $5 billion in the quarter, led by our liquid credit, aviation and opportunistic credit strategies. [Indiscernible] delivered record year-to-date FRE of $222 million. including $68 million in Q3. Run rate management fees increased 16% year-to-date after adjusting for catch-up fees. Total AUM was $110 billion, up 8% year-over-year with $15 billion of inflows over the last 12 months. This strong momentum reflects the broad array of investment solutions that [Indiscernible] has introduced over the past several years. [Indiscernible] historically invested largely through closed-end carry funds and institutional SMAs, but we have systematically introduced new evergreen strategies for the wealth channel and new verticals like portfolio finance and credit secondaries, which have allowed [Indiscernible] to expand its investor base and its universe of investable assets.

Shifting to global private equity. Third quarter distributable earnings were $237 million, up more than 60% year-over-year on higher net realized performance revenue. Fee-related earnings were $131 million in the quarter and fee earning AUM was $96 billion. GPE realized proceeds were $5.7 billion in the quarter and $24 billion for the last 12 months with notable exits, including Rigaku, Camino Natural Resources and Tecan Group. Deployment was nearly $4 billion, including Sicturion, first transaction from our new defense and industrials platform.

Finally, let me turn to capital management. We ended the quarter with over $7 billion of balance sheet assets or almost $20 per share. We declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, consistent with our dividend policy. We repurchased or withheld a record 15 million shares year-to-date, including 4.5 million shares in the quarter. Our share count is down about 2% thus far this year as we continue to actively manage dilution and see value in our share price. We have $1.4 billion remaining on our $2 billion share repurchase authorization giving us ample ability to continue managing share count.

As Harvey noted, the underpinnings of our platform continued to show strong momentum. We remain on track for our 3-year plan and are confident that growth will accelerate as we move through our fundraising super cycle. With that, let me turn it back to the operator to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

質疑応答

Alexander Blostein

So wanted to ask you guys around the growth outlook for the rest of the year and also into 2027. Just given your comments around accelerating momentum that you expect in the business. You highlighted a number of times now that 2026 is a bit of a transition year, which we're obviously seeing play out. So maybe a couple of questions. One, should we still expect FRE growth to be in mid-single digits for 2026, and then secondly, maybe you could speak to the budgeting of management fee growth into 2027 and kind of some of the key building blocks.

Harvey Schwartz

I appreciate the question. So yes, I think at the end of the year, we told you guys this would be more of a muted year for growth. It's more or less exactly on plan. give or take, I'd say, mid-single digits, might fall a little bit short of that as we come through the end. It really depends on how the flow is, but we're talking 1% or 2% either side of that. So we're not talking meaningful numbers. So again, it's more or less on plan. In terms of where we're really feeling quite good about the plan is the momentum in the aggregate franchise around the buildup in the beginning of the super cycle.

So as Justin mentioned, we really wanted to give you some sense of this. Obviously, as we come into the end of the year, we're also 1 month in the quarter. The fund flows feel quite good coming into the fourth quarter, who knows of the world also and we are curveball and some things will move into the first quarter, but that's irrelevant. So fund flows, inflows feel quite good. And I think the momentum going into 27 all feels quite good. I think the question was really or more about the macro environment, what plays out over the next 3 to 6 months.

We're seeing good momentum in the wealth channel, and we expect that to keep growing. But I would say that's probably the only thing that's been a bit of a headwind for the industry and obviously, in credit, and we've experienced a bit of that as well. But otherwise, everything goes more or less on plan. exactly as we described to you guys give or take 1% or 2. Now where we're really outperforming obviously, on the realization side. That continues. The pipeline of realizations actually feels quite good still. So in that sense, the momentum and the flows feel quite good across the whole platform.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak

So I was hoping to double click into some of the comments you just made, Harvey on the monetization outlook. Despite the challenged environment for some of the public holdings, you managed to realize a good chunk of the book this quarter. Rigaku, among others. I was hoping you could speak to how you're thinking about the monetization pipeline over the next 3 to 6 months? It sounds like you guys are still seeing some good momentum there. And what's your line of sight on monetizations in early '27 and beyond? And how is that informed by the midterm outcome? If you can speak to that, too.

Harvey Schwartz

I'll let Justin walk you through a bit in terms of how we think about it, what we generally do is we give you insight into things that we actually know are in queue. So we don't really speculate beyond that. Just orebody has a sense of how we frame the numbers every time. So when we talk about it, absent market disruptions, we talk about it with a very high degree of confidence, but a lot has obviously happened. I would say, stepping back before Justin walks through the details.

I think the market reaction to the midterm is consistent with history. The market, broadly speaking, tends to like something that approaches more of a gridlock situation in the second half of an administration. I think what we saw yesterday less specifically around private markets, but public markets, I think what we saw was really the reaction to the degree to which the outcome though expected directionally actually ended up being more significant. Obviously, some of this is around the whole anticipation and thought process about capital flowing into data centers and AI.

As you know, strategically as a firm, we've approached this in a more diversified, I would say, on a relative basis, more cautious, if you want to say, approach to allocating capital. And so particularly in credit, we've stayed very diversified around that. I actually think as we come into '27 and '28, this will give us a good resolution in terms of how people should think about AI and the data center actually is going to open up more opportunities, for folks like us as we get more clarity around the processes and how this will play. But in terms of like the near-term outlook and things that we're seeing, let me have Justin will go through the numbers.

Justin Plouffe

Yes. And Steve, as you know, realizations have been a strength for us for a while. We're actually approaching $100 billion of realizations now over the past 3 years. So this has been a consistent theme for us. Right now, we've got almost $6 billion of deals already signed up for exits that will come through in Q4, and some of those will be in 2027. But we continue to see momentum on the realization side. It's been a strength for us. and we're continuing to return capital to LPs, which obvious they like. And to Harvey's point, I think the market for realizations is going to react well to stability and having one more thing taken off the table in terms of uncertainty. So I expect the market for realizations will continue to be strong for us.

Steven Chubak

On the public physicians, obviously, you guys track all the public physicians that were a little muted for a while. Obviously, more recently, I don't know what are the current numbers, Justin.

Justin Plouffe

Well, yes, they were a bit more muted in Q3, but they're up 17% since the end of the quarter, which is $1 billion, actually a little more than $1 billion in value for our investors just in the last month. So we don't focus on the day-to-day movements of public stocks. We focused on whether or not we own good companies, and we think we do. But since the end of the quarter, we've really seen momentum there.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with BMO Capital Markets.

Brennan Hawken

So I was curious, I looked at the AUM roll forward, and saw that within credit, there was a $5.7 billion headwind from market and other to the fee-paying AUM line. The carry fund performance doesn't seem to reflect that. So I was guessing maybe it was SMAs. Could you maybe unpack what might have caused that and how we should think about that going forward?

Justin Plouffe

Yes. That's actually sort of a simple, Brennan, although it doesn't -- isn't obvious and jump off the page. Rates went up during the quarter. And what that means is that the fair value of assets at our Fortitude affiliate go down. It doesn't mean it changes really the amount that we're managing. It doesn't change anything about performance. It's not outflows. That $5 billion is really just the impact of higher rates on the Fortitude fair value mark. Overall, look, we're returning capital to investors at a high rate, which we said, which is a good thing, and that's what you want us to do. So there's some AUM impact of that, but the particular one you mentioned is really just the math on higher rates.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Brown with UBS.

Michael Brown

If you could touch on the fundraising in the wealth channel. How have the inflows been into the drawdown and Evergreens here? And is it -- can you talk about is it kind of a challenge raising in both types currently? And then on the Evergreen specifically, can you maybe just provide a pulse-check on the gross sales by major fund and then how redemptions could trend for [Indiscernible] based on some of your real-time conversations in the channel?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes, sure. Look, we continue to have really strong momentum in the well channel. Our inflows are 24% up. LTM, our AUMs 30% up. year-over-year. So wealth continues to be a growth engine for us. I'd particularly call out our products in [Indiscernible] which continue to take in strong inflows. And then our [Indiscernible] product, which is our Harlow wide private equity product that actually just as of yesterday, crossed $1 billion in AUM. So we're seeing great momentum there. At a high level, obviously, the entire market in private credit started to have some noise around it back in the spring. We're starting to see redemption levels stabilize and come down. So those products continue to perform across the industry, I think you'll see that turnaround as well. So look, wealth for us continues to be a growth driver. We've got great momentum, and we expect it to be key for us in '27 and beyond.

Michael Brown

And sorry, you're also seeing some capital flowing through to CP9 from the wealth channel?

Justin Plouffe

So we haven't had a first close there. Whether or not the wealth channel will be a part of that. I'm sure it will be part of all of our major fundraises. But what we tried to do in the wealth channel is be really thoughtful about the products that we're bringing to that channel and make sure they're really designed well for that channel. I think CPAP is a great example of that. We spent a lot of time designing that product as a private equity product that made sense for individual wealth investors. We intentionally rolled it out slowly last year, and now we're getting on the big platforms. And I think because it was designed well for that channel, that's one of the reasons we're seeing so much momentum there.

Harvey Schwartz

My only because I think this is at the core of your question in the way you asked it, but I think Justin has covered [Indiscernible] all of that is, I think in sort of like the mix of drawdown versus Evergreen, virtually, and the team will confirm all these number of the off-line in detail if you want. But it's really been all driven by Evergreen, which has been our focus. We really haven't been in the market with drawdown. As the super cycle begins, there'll be a component of drawdown for funds that make sense for drawdown. But what we were just really walking you through is the evergreen mix which, as you know, there wasn't much of an evergreen strategy a couple of years ago, but the team has really done a remarkable job of bringing things to market. But there really hasn't been drawdown activity. But that's in queue for '27, '28.

Operator

Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

Glenn Schorr

So I wonder if you could help us on even just conceptually on the FRE ramp through '27 and '28. You have a tonne dry powder I'm curious on, in a normal-ish backdrop, wherever that means. Is that a 1- or 2-year deployment or 2- or 3-year deployment? What I'm trying to get at is how much of that FRE ramp from this like low single-digit number is within your control in terms of deploying capital that you already have? And how much do we have to rely on the super cycle happening and the market could or could not help or take that away. So you get what I'm getting at because what's within your...

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. I understand the question. We're not going to unpack that completely for you. So I only tell you that so that you can be prepared to be dissatisfied. But let me give you the sort of theoretical framing and thinking about it. So when the way we think about the super cycle -- and we have some good feel for the super cycle in terms of, again, barring unforeseen macro factors, what's in queue, what the momentum build looks like. And obviously, in many cases, as we raise those funds, you immediately get fees in those drawdown vehicles, et cetera. In terms of the backlog of deployment, I think you're just seeing sort of the transition of very, very large monetization period, certainly relative to the industry group and then the buildup in new capital.

So we're in this transition mode, again, which going back to the plan we walked you through earlier this year, it's more or less spot on with the plan with a couple of give and takes. And so you should expect build as we come through '27. And I think where you can draw confidence from all this is because we have these different levers. We have capital markets activity, which again flywheels off of the fundraising actually having all the funds in a position where they can drive capital markets activity. So we're feeling pretty confident about all that collective momentum. Hard to unbundle precise deployment because we put no pressure on the teams to deploy. What we really demand from the teams is that they price the risk correctly -- and we're seeing some pretty attractive opportunities out there. And I think as we come into '27, we're going to continue to see great opportunities to price marginal risk.

But that's how the teams are thinking about deployment. We obviously control more of the factors around the fundraising. So really, it only ends up being really a factor of timing. But what we'll try and do is, at some point in '27, we'll give you a more detailed update. So you can wrap your brain around it. I hope that was helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Great. Maybe just to go back to the monetization cycle. To what extent do you expect this pace to accelerate your fundraising plans as we come into '27? And in terms of that return on capital, which areas could it help influence the fund? I think clearly, CP9 is one of them. But maybe if you can comment on what other types of strategies in Global PE and maybe even in credit, would benefit from the acceleration of return of capital?

Justin Plouffe

Sure. Thanks, Brian. Look, I think they all benefit from return of capital because it's probably the #1 issue on LP's minds. So it's particularly pronounced in PE. The PE industry has been challenged in terms of return of capital. Obviously, we have not. We've been one of the outliers in that space. Certainly, CP9, our defense and industrial strategy. But even in credit, I would say, the realizations we've had in [Indiscernible] returning capital, showing improving out that strategy have really helped us with the fund raise there. We had a great set of first closings in Q3 with over $3.3 billion in that strategy.

So it's top of LP mines. Returning capital is going to benefit every one of our strategies, particularly in private equity. But that's why we're going to continue to do it, and we've always done this. And I can't emphasize that enough. Our teams think about exits at the moment that we make the investment. So for us to say we're doing $100 billion. That's an outlier over 3 years for the industry. But for us, I mean, this is what we plan to do. This is right on track and LPs greatly appreciate that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

Kenneth Worthington

[Indiscernible] has been active in recent quarters buying blocks of business, does the change in the interest rate outlook although the opportunity or appetite to buy and execute on these blocks? And maybe talk a little bit about how dialogue is going to continue to expand that business.

Harvey Schwartz

So the short answer to that is no. Obviously, interest rates have an impact on the overall environment every asset class. I think that -- what the team has been quite focused on is the integrated approach to managing insurance capital around the globe. And what Fortitude does obviously gives us the ability to provide kit. But if you think of the -- the entire insurance space globally, where we're getting the collective momentum as a solution provider and as a fiduciary because obviously, we're not in the annuity business. is the ability to be a third-party provider of capital, but also an asset manager at the same time.

So if an insurer has a capital need, obviously, Fortitude can be that capital provider. But more broadly across the insurance space, the types of transactions we're doing in asset-based finance, aviation finance, some of those solutions that we're putting together and Carlyle, all of these are very valuable solutions in private investment rate. And so this is all about completing out that aspect of the platform so that we can be a solution provider for any insurer, whether they -- whether they desire capital or risk transfer or whether they're in an excess capital position and they want to deploy capital for us to manage. But that's how it fits.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mason Fleming with Barclays Capital.

Benjamin Budish

This is actually Ben Budish from Barclays. You talked about the realization cycle being supportive of flows. I was wondering if you could just click in more to CP9 specifically, that's obviously kind of your largest flagship fund in the market. We've seen I think $5 billion come in so far. So curious if you could update on that one, any kind of changing near-term expectations and your confidence on being able to raise more than the predecessor fund.

Harvey Schwartz

So the -- the specifics on the narrative around the fundraising we're really constrained on what we can talk about. But obviously, we'll be having our first close coming up in the next couple of months. so you'll have more insight into that. I think to add to what Justin was saying before on a prior question. So in terms of fund flows and returning capital, in private equity broadly where we've been the most significant outlier, we get the most significant benefit. So in a sector where clients are feeling that they're not getting out of return on capital.

If you're one of the outliers that's actually returning capital, obviously, that resonates with them. And so again, this was a strategic decision we made a couple of years ago. We like the market environment, we knew we had the right companies. We had very little exposure to software or areas where very high multiple positions, we're struggling to come to the marketplace. I think it's still going to take the industry a bit of time to digest the capital that is a bit trapped. But for us, we've seen a unique window relative to the industry group.

And so we've obviously been monetizing a lot of assets and will continue. I think that just sets us up better for front raising over time and speaks to the breadth of the diversification of the business. So in particular for private equity, when you can return capital or any sector where others aren't, it's a differentiating factor. So it's a plus.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Welden with Wells Fargo.

Daniel F. Welden

I wanted to follow up on your comments on AI credit. -- and data center investments where you've been more cautious, it sounds like you might see better risk-adjusted returns in this new backdrop. How do you think about approaching that market? Are we talking about sort of or maybe more deployment from existing funds, raising new special precise funds? Or is it more of a capital markets focus? Like how do you think about waiting into that area?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. So we put out or Jenkins, [Indiscernible] President, Head of Credit Insurance and Jason Thomas put out a paper not too long without a lot of attention, which I think for some of the media was a little misunderstood, but the core of it really reflected our investment thesis as it relates to the space broadly, which is, one, we are very, very strong believers in the impact of AI, the technology, what it will do over time. What we are a little more cautious about where some of the uncertainties around structures, collateral, the rush of capital and just not repeating some of the mistakes that were made just a couple of years ago by parts of the marketplace in the [Indiscernible], right?

So we didn't want to be over allocated and particularly, this relates to credit, where we felt like the strategy that Mark and the team have been driving for a long time, but success is, look, there's a lot of value and diversification. And so this is about not being over allocated and the same as it relates to equity. Now I think as we move through this part of the cycle, my own personal view is data centers are going to get built. This is a problem that is not going to be an ability to have data centers. I think actually, what we're going to do is we're going to end up getting to a place where we have actually more certainty around this. And I think as we get more clarity, the risk adjuster actually even get better as a deployer of capital. So I see there's an opportunity set.

In terms of the ability to raise special purpose vehicles or things like that, that's always an opportunity set. But I was really talking about the framework over the next 18 months. I actually think the opportunity to put capital will become more attractive. If we are not ever going to violate the first principle about diversification here because I think we think it makes it just better global returns for our clients and more durable returns for the firm. We're big believers in the thesis. And as we get more clarity and work through part of the cycle, I actually think you'll see some pretty attractive risk-adjusted returns with more certainty.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bill Katz with CD Cowen.

Unknown Analyst

This is Robin Holly on for Bill Katz. We wanted to ask about the $8 billion loan acquisition from Truist. Are there any puts and takes to the timing of how you bring this into fee-paying AUM? And are there any balance sheet considerations from Carlyle? And what are the expected fee economics to Carlyle from the transaction?

Justin Plouffe

Yes. So that was a Q4 transaction, and so you'll see it flow through next quarter. There's nothing particularly unusual about it, not a balance sheet commitment just a transaction done by our asset-backed finance team. One of the teams, I think, that has had some of the best deployment for us over the course of the past year. So I think it's just another example of the capabilities we have in asset-backed finance, a growing business for us, but nothing in particular unusual about it in terms of fees or balance sheet.

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. I think the only takeaway you should have is we've emphasized this business for a couple of years now. Team has done an amazing job. They've been very disciplined about how they built the business, designed the business, deploy the capital, growing the business. But this wasn't something that the business was capable doing 3 years ago, but clearly, you've seen a number of large transactions, and they're front and center in a lot of these important flows.

Operator

Our next question comes from Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.

Unknown Analyst

Can you share some of the drivers in the transaction and advisory fee line in the quarter? It was a little lighter compared to recent quarters. some peers had more elevated levels. And I understand these can be lumpier, but just curious on the drivers in the third quarter and perhaps more importantly, the outlook just look longer-term growth opportunity in this line?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. Quarter-to-quarter, it's going to periodically be lumpy. I think the underscoring point you have to remember is we're not really deploying any balance here. So the quality of the revenue stream here is as high quality as you would like. it's all going to flow off of activity levels. So sometimes you'll see an announcement, then you'll see fees come in, in the next quarter, the subsequent 2 quarters. But it's all about the integrated flywheel effect of building a higher-quality revenue stream without committing balance sheet or de minimis balance sheet when needed to drive those fees.

And so I guess if we were deploying lots of balance sheet, we could probably smooth out that activity. It's just not the lower quality earnings that we want to drive for right now. This is really just all about the franchise and what the franchise is able to drive. And so Again, as we come through the super cycle of fundraising, that creates more activity, more deployment, more fees, but it's not going to be linear quarter-to-quarter, but you've seen the growth we've had over the last couple of years, and we expect it to continue to build.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

Michael Cyprys

So you've talked about entering a significant fundraising cycle here with a number of flagships coming to the market. I was just hoping you could speak to what you're seeing in terms of institutional demand trends how that's evolving in the context of just the broader industry backdrop being a bit lighter from realization. I understand that you guys have been a bit more active so that should be helpful. And as we look to '27, I guess, how much visibility do you have on a more meaningful acceleration in fundraising? And how should we be thinking about the timing of fund activations?

Harvey Schwartz

So I think at the highest level, the easiest way to do it is to just break down the industry segments. From an institutional perspective, I would say that secondaries co-invest solutions business, right in the center of a huge amount of institutional interest and activity. And that actually do a lot of things, not just the fact that the flip side of that coin is that the industry has been slow to monetize on the private equity side. But portfolio structuring and being a real solution provider has proved to be a really unique advantage. So it may just be reallocating across asset classes or how to think about funds. And so the momentum there feels quite sticky and persistent right now.

I would say in credit. It feels quite good also for the wealth [Indiscernible], which credit obviously has had some challenges for the industry. I think institutional activities continue to pick up, and they're seeing value across credit. And that -- when I say that, I'm not really just talking about a narrow slice and I'm talking fully across the cap stack from investment grade all the way through, you've seen also great [Indiscernible] for us. And so I'd say that the institutional level of activity in credit is quite good.

And then in private equity, I would say the institutional activity. Hard to say. I would say in terms of, again, the big problems for the industry is that the peer group is not returning enough capital broadly speaking across the industry, but I think that, that has likely sort of hit a bottom now whether or not we see a huge uptick. But clearly, for our asset classes, aerospace, defense, government services, things we do in diversified energy, healthcare, those are in vogue. I think if you just ended up in the unfortunate position where you had a technology disruption with very high multiple and a lot of SaaS exposure, it's a little more difficult. But it feels like institutional interest, particularly around those asset classes is picking up somewhat. But I wouldn't say it's a hockey stick at this stage. But the rest of -- across the rest of the industry, I think institutional feels quite good.

Michael Cyprys

And then just on the visibility into for acceleration and fundraising? How are you thinking about that?

Harvey Schwartz

As we talked about, we're in the beginning of the super cycle. I think Justin was pretty specific. It feels like the fourth quarter will be one of our best inflow quarters ever. And then we'll really be in the thick of things in '27 and '28. So -- but I can't -- we don't really think about it like accelerating from Q2 to Q1 or anything like that. I understand the models that U.S. have to build is just not the way we think we're the fundraising.

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

Patrick Davitt

Most of the mine have been asked. I had a clarification on the CP9 point. It sounds like you see a first close in 4Q. So on that, I want to confirm that you already reported the $5 billion structured commitment in 2Q, right? So the first close will just be the amount above that $5 billion. Is that the right way to think about it?

Justin Plouffe

I think whether or not it's Q4 or the beginning of Q1, I wasn't specific about that, but in the next couple of months, but yes, I think you should do that. And that will likely be, as you've seen, I don't want to get stapled to a wall here on this. I would say that probably feels more like a 1A followed by 1B. And this is really just a question of timing for institutional investors to get docs done and seasonality and things like that. But yes, that will be a subcomponent of the first close would be to $5 billion.

Patrick Davitt

But the $5 billion has already been reported is my question. Like it's not whenever you...

Harvey Schwartz

We think it [Indiscernible]. But yes, that's reported. Obviously, we have to report that. But I view that as sort of like just a cornerstone part of the capital raise. That's not really the first close -- that's part of the first close, obviously. -- in the [Indiscernible].

Patrick Davitt

Has already run through the AUM flow forward? I'm just -- I'm trying to figure out like how big of a...

Harvey Schwartz

[Indiscernible].

Operator

Our next question comes from Bart Dziarski with RBC Capital Markets.

Bart Dziarski

I wanted to ask, given the higher rate environment, how are you evolving or adapting the value creation plans to ensure performance and private equity is not impacted. I presume there's more focus on operational value add. So anything you can help us understand through that would be great.

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. So one of the great things I stepped into when I arrived at Carlyle among the many great things. One was a, I would say, a very conservative approach to liability management at the portfolio companies. and a great capital markets team. Now we didn't have a capital markets fee business, which actually we built over that time. But we had a great liability management team, which has now extended all the work they do with Carlyle.

But we've always taken a conservative approach to interest rates. One of the reasons, in part, we've been able to have monetization is, I remember when I first got here 3 years ago when rates started to go up. we had really the most conservative liability structures. And so we haven't relied as much on interest rates or refinancings. When you actually go through the portfolio monetizations and the history of Carlyle, it's not interest rates per se that's driving value. Now sometimes you get cycles where, obviously, there was a long cycle where rates were lower and you could refinance and that was a value contributor to certain assets, but that hasn't been the driver of value creation.

We certainly, every time we acquire a company, the team is working with all of our economists to best understand how much risk they want to take from that perspective, but we're not aggressive risk takers when it comes to liability structures in those companies where we point our energy is on -- if it's a carve-out the expertise it requires to take a carve out, whether it's a roll-up strategy, how are we doing marketing, what are we doing in terms of AI. These are much more critical components or data science -- much more critical components to value creation than interest rates themselves. But we generally, as a firm, take a pretty conservative view to liability management, and that's just the history that Bill Conway and the founders ran the company with for 40 years.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Great. Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Just on transaction fees is the truest ABF. Is that something that will materially impact the fourth quarter transaction fees? And then just the -- maybe just some perspective on the timing of $230 million of pending AUM fees to come into the fee stream. I know it's always hard to predict, but maybe on the credit side, how would you think about timing of that [Indiscernible]?

Justin Plouffe

Yes, sure. So on the pending fee-earning AUM, very broad-based where that's coming from. So hard to say blanket statement. I would say, historically, it's kind of a 12- to 24-month type of number, but that will depend on credit deployment. [Indiscernible] was the fourth quarter deal. So you'll see that come through the fourth quarter numbers. we've got a number of things coming through in transaction fees in the fourth quarter. So I expect it will be a good quarter for us in that regard. But obviously, we've got 2 months left. So we'll have to see how that goes. But yes, for the pending fee-earning AUM, you're going to see that come through in '27 and '28. And as I said before, that's going to be a driver of our top line.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Daniel Harris for any closing remarks.

Daniel Harris

Thank you, everyone, for your time today. Should you have any questions after the call, follow up with Investor Relations, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.