トレーガー（COOK）2026年度第3四半期決算説明会：売上高40%減、業績予想の幅を縮小

要点

• Traegerの2026年度第3四半期の売上高は、チャネルの最適化、市場在庫の正常化、競合圧力、出荷タイミングの影響を受け、前年同期比40%減の7,500万ドルとなりました。
• 調整後EBITDAは前年同期の1,400万ドルの黒字に対し、300万ドルの赤字となりました。経営陣は、「プロジェクト・グラビティ」によるコスト削減が減収の影響を一部相殺したと説明しました。
• 年初来のフリーキャッシュフローは4,900万ドルに達しました。四半期末時点の現金は6,800万ドル、純負債は合計3億3,500万ドル、利用可能な流動性は1億6,700万ドルでした。
• Traegerは通期の売上高見通しを4億4,000万〜4億6,000万ドル、調整後EBITDA見通しを5,900万〜6,500万ドルに引き絞り、双方の従来のレンジの中位値を維持しました。
• 経営陣は、第3四半期からの出荷延期分やLowe’s向けの初期在庫納入に支えられ、第4四半期の売上高および調整後EBITDAが前年同期比で増加するとの予想を維持しています。
• 同社は、販売網の拡大、在庫の削減、コスト構造のスリム化を理由に、2027年に黒字成長へ回帰すると見込んでいます。この見通しには消費環境の大幅な改善は織り込まれていません。

主要財務業績

売上総利益率の低下には、販売促進費のタイミング、固定倉庫費用のレバレッジ低下、スマート温度計事業における継続的な下押し圧力が反映されました。IEEPA関税払い戻しが一部を相殺しました。

事業および営業業績

経営陣によると、セルインとセルスルーの乖離は、主に「プロジェクト・グラビティ」に基づく販売店在庫の正常化と戦略的チャネル変更を反映したものです。Traegerは、主要取引先における2026年度のセルスルーが前年並みとなり、通期のグリル本体のセルインも少なくとも前年並みを維持すると引き続き予想しています。

消費者は低価格製品への移行を継続しました。主要取引先における600ドル未満のグリルの年初来セルスルーは二桁成長を記録しました。製品ミックスのシフトが平均販売価格を圧迫したものの、第3四半期にこれらのパートナーを通じて販売されたグリルの台数は前年同期を上回りました。経営陣によると、Traegerの平均販売価格はカテゴリー全体水準の2倍以上を維持しています。

同社は、WestwoodやIron Topなどの製品を通じて製品ラインアップを拡大しています。WestwoodはBaseモデルおよびExcelモデルで700〜800ドルの価格帯となっています。経営陣は、2027年に向けて追加製品を計画していると説明しました。

ペレットの売上は、低価格の競合製品や小売チャネルの独占権変更に直面しました。Traegerは、ペレットの販売店舗拡大や店頭ディスプレイの改善で対応しています。

Traegerのインフルエンサーパートナーは、第3四半期に前年同期比で50%以上増となる2億8,400万回以上のインプレッションを獲得しました。その約半数はブランドにとって新しいクリエイターによるものであり、オーガニックリーチの約70%は既存フォロワー以外の消費者から得られたものです。同社はネットプロモータースコア（NPS）が65であったと報告しました。

Lowe’sでの展開は第3四半期中に開始されました。11月2日にLowes.comでの取り扱いが始まり、ブラックフライデーに先立ちペレットの流通が計画され、2027年2月〜3月には一部のLowe’s店舗で主要な店頭展開が予定されています。経営陣は、Lowe’sが新たな顧客層を開拓し、複数年にわたる成長機会をもたらすと期待しています。

「プロジェクト・グラビティ」は、2026年度に3,000万ドルの追加価値を創出し、累積創出価値を5,000万ドルに引き上げる計画通りに進展しています。また、本プログラムは、小売スペシャリスト、マーチャンダイジング、小売業者メディアネットワークへの投資を支援しつつ、在庫および営業費用を削減しました。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、コンテナ不足やアジアの台風により遅れていた出荷分が計上され、Lowe’s向けの初期在庫納入が拡大することにより、第4四半期の売上高が前年同期比で増加すると見込んでいます。遅延していた売上分は10月中に既に出荷済みです。

売上高の増加、倉庫費および販売促進費のレバレッジ改善、直接輸入ミックスの拡大により、第4四半期の売上総利益率は前四半期比で改善する見通しです。

2027年について、経営陣は2026年度の関税払い戻しによるハードルがあるものの、増収および調整後EBITDAの拡大を見込んでいます。なお、同社は2027年の詳細なガイダンスを提供していません。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 第3四半期の比較対照となる前年同期実績には、関税をめぐる不確実性のなかでの小売業者による約2,000万ドルの在庫積み増し購入が含まれていました。
• 裁量的消費支出は引き続き圧迫されており、需要はお手頃な価格帯へとシフトしています。
• 低価格ペレットとの競合やチャネル独占権の変更が、足元で下押し圧力となっています。
• Lowe’sを通じたチャネル拡大は、独占性が重要であった既存の小売パートナーにおいて短期的影響をもたらしています。
• コンテナ不足とアジアの台風により、出荷が第3四半期から第4四半期へ遅延しました。
• 経営陣は、2027年に向けて運賃コストが逆風となると引き続き予想しています。以前示された約100万ドルの影響度見通しに大きな変更はありません。
• 2027年度の業績は、2026年度に計上されたIEEPA関税払い戻しによる厳しい前年対比に直面することになります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、今後12か月間の新規顧客獲得の主な牽引役として、より低いエントリー価格帯と新規小売チャネルの2つを挙げました。プロモーション価格は最安で389ドルに達し、Traegerはプレミアムな位置付けを維持しつつ新たな消費者をターゲットにすることが可能になりました。

Lowe’sに関して、経営陣は第4四半期の在庫納入が相当な規模に上り、消費者向けの本格展開は2027年春に開始されると述べました。Traegerは、差別化された製品、店頭販売スペシャリスト、リテールメディア費用の投入を通じて、Lowe’s、Home Depot、Aceへの投資を拡大する計画です。

第4四半期の成長に対する確信に関して、経営陣は10月に繰り越された売上およびイベント起因のLowe’sからの注文を挙げました。同社は2026年度をボトムの年と位置付けており、第4四半期から増収および増益成長への回帰が始まると見込んでいます。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Traeger Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations. Stephanie, please go ahead.

Stephanie Read

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Traeger's call to discuss its third quarter 2026 results, which were released this afternoon and can be found at our website at investors.traeger.com. I'm Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations at Traeger. With me on the call today are Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer; and Joey Hord, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Traeger's reports filed with the SEC. This call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss adjusted net income or loss per share, free cash flow and net debt, which we believe are useful supplemental measures. The most comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures contained herein to such GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and investor presentation, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investors.traeger.com.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andres, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger. Jeremy?

Jeremy Andrus

Thanks, Steph, and thank you all for joining us. As we have said all year, 2026 is a transition year for Traeger. Our third quarter revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter with some activity shifting between Q3 and Q4. Joey will walk through the financial results in more detail. More importantly, there has been no change in our conviction in the progress we're making across the business. We are narrowing our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges while maintaining the midpoint of each and reiterating our gross margin outlook.

We also continue to expect a return to year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter. Beyond the quarter, the strategic work we've been doing throughout 2026 is increasingly translating into tangible progress. The Traeger brand is reaching new consumers. The product portfolio is addressing a broader range of price points. Lowe's expansion is moving from planning to execution and project gravity has created greater capacity to invest behind the consumer and our strategic retail partners. As we look ahead, I believe those initiatives are positioning Traeger to exit 2026 with improving momentum and enter 2027 with a stronger foundation for sustainable, profitable growth.

Let me start with the brand. One of our priorities over the last several quarters has been expanding Traeger's reach beyond our traditional audience. We've evolved our influencer strategy and increase our investment behind creators who can introduce Traeger and wood-fired cooking to new consumers. We're seeing encouraging signs of strategy is working. In Q3, our influencer partners generated more than 284 million impressions, up over 50% year-over-year, with approximately half coming from creators who are new to Traeger. And approximately 70% of our organic reach came from consumers who don't currently follow Traeger. Reach usually comes at the expense of engagement, but we are growing both.

Finally, our Net Promoter Score of 65 is the highest in the category and meaningfully above the next closest competitor. That tells us we're expanding Traeger's reach while maintaining the consumer advocacy that has always been 1 of the brand's greatest strengths. Reaching new consumers also requires having the right products to meet their needs. One of the clearest dynamics we've seen this year has been a consumer shift toward more accessible price points with double-digit growth in our year-to-date sell-through on drills below $600 across our strategic accounts.

While the shift towards lower price points creates an ASP headwind, our sell-through data shows that consumers purchase more Traeger Grill units at our strategic retail partners in the third quarter than they did a year ago. In other words, we're bringing more households into the Traeger brand even as consumers gravitate towards lower price points. Our strategy is to offer compelling products across our broader price range while preserving the quality, innovation and experience that differentiates Traeger. And the new Westwood and Iron Top families of products are good examples, bringing Traeger innovation to more accessible price points. And even with that mix shift, our ASP remains more than twice that of the overall category.

In pellets, we're seeing a similar shift toward value with increased competition at lower price points and changes in exclusivity across certain retail channels, creating near-term pressures. We're responding by expanding the availability of Traeger pellets across our retail network and improving retail presentation and visibility. Over time, we believe broader distribution together with the quality and flavored differentiation of our pellets will strengthen our position in the category. Each new Traeger household creates a longer-term relationship across pellets, accessories, future grill purchases and the broader Traeger ecosystem. That's why we view expanding the installed base as an important driver of long-term value even when the initial entry point is at a lower price.

We're also excited about our innovation pipeline. We have new products planned for launch in 2027 that will extend the Traeger experience to even more consumers and we'll share more as we get closer to launch. Making Traeger more accessible isn't only about product and price. It's also about being where consumers choose to shop. Following our announcement last quarter, we initiated our national expansion with Lowe's during Q3. Lowe's is 1 of the largest distribution expansions in Traeger's recent history. Our research tells us the Lowe's shopper is incremental to consumers we reach today. That's true by geography in markets where we've been underpenetrated, and it's true of the shopper with a strong DIY based and household mix that fits our core consumer segments.

We believe this makes Lowe's another meaningful platform for household acquisition. At the same time, our strategy is not simply about adding doors. The Home Depot and Ace remains strategically important partners, and we're continuing to invest behind both relationships. At the Home Depot, we've doubled our return on ad spend by focusing investment on higher-performing media and audiences. That's contributing to solid year-to-date sell-through performance. At Ace, we made initial investments in their retail media network this year that drove incremental returns with plans to scale that partnership in 2027. Our objective is to build a stronger marketplace for Traeger across all of our strategic retail partners. That includes better sell-through data and tools, so partner orders track more closely to consumer demand.

With broader distribution, a more complete product portfolio, and increasingly sophisticated retail execution, we believe we have more ways to reach consumers and convert them into Traeger households. Supporting all of this is the work we've done through Project Gravity. When we launched Gravity, we said the objective wasn't simply to reduce costs. It was to simplify trigger and create the capacity to invest behind the opportunities with the greatest potential to drive profitable growth. We're now beginning to put that capacity to work. We're redirecting investment towards areas that can directly support consumer acquisition and strengthen our retail execution, including expanding our retail sales specialist program, improving merchandising and fixturing and building our capabilities across retailer media networks. That's an important part of the value of Project Gravity, not simply operating with a lower cost base but directing our resources behind the opportunities we believe can drive the greatest long-term value.

As we look toward the end of 2026, we believe we will be entering 2027 from a stronger strategic position with greater capacity to invest behind growth, as sell-in and sell-through come back into alignment and these investments mature, we believe Traeger is well positioned to return to profitable growth in 2027. The macro environment remains uncertain. And while the consumer environment has weighed on discretionary spending, we believe the initiatives I've discussed today don't require a dramatically better near-term consumer environment to succeed. They require strong execution, and that's where our focus is, expanding distribution, meeting consumers across more price points, growing the installed base, showing up better at retail, and putting our resources where the returns are greatest.

We spent much of 2026 doing the difficult work to reposition the business. As we close the year, our focus increasingly shifts from repositioning the execution, translating that work into more trigger households, broader distribution and profitable growth. I'm confident in the strategy and the opportunity ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joey.

Joey Hord

Thanks, Jeremy, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter results reflected 3 revenue pressures we've discussed throughout the year, channel optimization under project gravity, competitive pressure and meter and our actions to improve marketplace health. The year-over-year comparison was particularly pronounced this quarter because we lapped approximately $20 million of elevated retailer inventory purchases in Q3 of last year in an uncertain tariff environment. Separately, Q3 revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter due primarily to timing.

Certain shipments and promotional activity shifted from Q3 into Q4, including delays from container constraints that were amplified by a typhoon in Asia. We've already realized that revenue in October, and it is reflected in our full year outlook. On our last call, we said we expected substantially all of our remaining adjusted EBITDA to come in Q4. Our Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million reflects that timing.

Before I walk through the numbers in more depth, I want to reinforce 3 points that provide important context for our confidence in the business. First, the divergence between sell-in and sell-through this year primarily reflects channel inventory normalization and strategic talent divestment to drive profitability. We continue to expect roughly flat '26 sell-through across our strategic accounts, which we believe indicates that underlying consumer demand is considerably healthier than reported revenue one would suggest.

Second, underlying unit trends remain healthy. We continue to expect full year Grill unit sell-in to be at least flat year-over-year, driven by a large fourth quarter that includes our initial Lowe's load-in and reflects the consumer shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. And third, Project Gravity continues to deliver meaningful benefits across our cost structure, working capital and cash generation, as demonstrated by our year-to-date results. Taken together, these factors along with our entry into Lowe's support our expectation to return to revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter and position us to return to profitable growth in '27.

With that context, let me walk through the quarter and our outlook. Third quarter revenues decreased 40% year-over-year to $75 million. Looking at category performance, grow revenues decreased 48% to $40 million in the third quarter, reflecting the marketplace health and channel optimization actions I mentioned earlier as well as the mix shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. Consumables revenues declined 23% to $19 million, primarily driven by lower wood pellet sales related to similar order timing and changes in retail channel dynamics. Accessories revenues decreased 34% to $16 million, primarily from lower sales of meter smart thermometers.

Gross profit for the third quarter decreased to $25 million from $49 million in the third quarter of $25 million. Gross profit margin for the third quarter contracted 520 basis points year-over-year to 33.5%, driven primarily by the timing of trade spend, deleverage of fixed warehousing expenses on lower revenue. and continued margin pressure in our meter business, partially offset by an IPA tariff refund benefit.

Sales and marketing expense declined to $14 million in the third quarter, down $6 million year-over-year. while general and administrative expenses declined $2 million year-over-year to $20 million, primarily reflecting lower employee-related expenses and actions taken under Project Gravity. Net loss was $29 million or $10.33 per diluted share compared to $90 million or $33.46 per diluted share in the prior year period. The year-over-year improvement primarily reflects the anniversary of a $75 million noncash goodwill impairment recorded last year.

Adjusted net loss was $19 million or $6.77 per diluted share compared to $22 million or $8.31 per diluted share last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $3 million, down from income of $14 million in the prior year. lower revenue pressured profitability in the quarter, the savings generated through Project Gravity meaningfully mitigated the impact and continue to support our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Let me now discuss the balance sheet. We generated $8 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date free cash flow to $49 million, including $16 million related to the IEEPA refund and $12 million related to an employee retention credit discussed on prior earnings calls. At the end of the third quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $68 million, compared to $20 million at the end of the previous fiscal year. We ended the quarter with $403 million of total debt, resulting in total net debt of $335 million.

We ended the third quarter with a healthy liquidity position of $167 million. Our credit facilities remain completely undrawn and combined with $68 million of cash, we believe we have ample liquidity to support the business. Inventory at the quarter was $79 million, down from $99 million at year-end, primarily reflecting lower meter inventory and SKU rationalization and business simplification associated with project gravity. Combined with our free cash flow performance, this is tangible evidence of the improvements we've made in working capital efficiency.

Now turning to our fiscal '26 outlook. As we approach the end of the year and have greater visibility into our expected results, we are narrowing our revenue guidance range to $440 million to $460 million from $435 million to $465 million previously, while maintaining the same midpoint. We continue to expect gross margin of 40% to 41%. We are also narrowing our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $59 million to $65 million, adjusted from $57 million to $67 million previously while also maintaining the same midpoint.

Our outlook continues to imply a return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by 2 primary factors: the recovery of shipments that shifted out of Q3 and the ramp in initial load-ins associated with our Lowe's expansion. Together, these factors support both our full year revenue outlook and our expectation for year-over-year growth in Q4. We also expect gross margin to improve sequentially in Q4, supported by higher revenue driving warehousing and trade spend leverage as well as higher direct import mix, which supports our full year gross margin outlook of 40% to 41%.

We are reiterating our free cash flow guidance of at least $30 million on a year-to-date free cash flow generation of $49 million. We remain on track to deliver an incremental $30 million of value capture for Project Gravity within fiscal '26 which is consistent with prior expectations and brings the total value capture to $50 million. Importantly, we believe the impact extends beyond the $50 million. Gravity has fundamentally improved how we operate with a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and stronger cash generation. These improvements are durable and leave us with a structurally stronger financial model as we return to growth.

I want to close with how we're thinking about '27. Importantly, our expectations do not depend on the significant improvement in the consumer macroeconomic environment. We expect '27 with broader distribution, a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and a more efficient operating model, giving us multiple levers to drive improved financial performance even against a still challenging consumer backdrop. While we're not providing '27 guidance today, we believe the actions we have taken position us to return to profitable growth in we intend to maintain the same discipline around working capital, cash generation and capital allocation that we've demonstrated this year.

So Q3 was challenging from a reported revenue and earnings standpoint. We believe the underlying financial trajectory of the business is improving. We remain on track against our full year objectives and the actions we've taken this year position us for stronger growth, profitability and cash generation over time.

With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Phillip Blee with William Blair.

質疑応答

Phillip Blee

Jeremy, you've spoken a bit about kind of the efforts and some of the early successes you've seen in reaching a new subset of consumers -- so I guess how do you think about your ability to then convert some of those newer cohorts? What's your strategy there? And then how quickly do you think you could start to see some of those benefits flow through the P&L?

Jeremy Andrus

Phillip, thanks for your question. So a couple of thoughts on that. The first is that we've worked hard to get down to some lower price points, believing that we have the ability to still at a premium price relative to industry attract a new consumer. If you look at where gas products are priced. They tend to be lower price points on balance and in hitting as low as a $389 price point during promotion season, we feel like we're attracting a consumer who's paying up and willing to try the solution as we reach more accessible price points.

So we believe that pricing has been incremental to our customer acquisition. We are seeing growth in unit volume. We saw that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in the third quarter. We also believe that our ability to attract a new consumer is partly dependent upon channel. It's one of the reasons why we are expanding channel next year. And we feel like that gives us access to both new geography, in some cases, new consumers. And then the rest of it is back to a traditional playbook in consumer products, which is really understand the consumer have a thoughtful segmentation and know how to speak to each of those consumers with a different narrative in an effort to ensure that we're we are speaking to their needs as consumers. So it's a variety of things. I would say the 2 pieces that are driving incremental customer acquisition or that will, over the next 12 months are both price and new channel.

Phillip Blee

Okay. Great. Super helpful. And then I know it's still early, but maybe can you help us think about how meaningful the Lowe's partnership could be whether or not then we should think about any net impact from any fallout with existing partners that we're looking for more exclusivity. And then just how we should think about the general ramp here, this a 2027 story? Or is this more of a 2028 story in terms of a bigger incremental top line lift?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, sure. So the rollout in Lowe's is tracking to plan. Lowes.com was launched on November 2 launched this week. Pellets begin to reap stores ahead of Black Friday. The main launch really is the spring of '27. Somewhere between February and March, we will roll out fixtures in a subset of the Lowe's doors. We're proud of how we're merchandising the brand there. And we feel good about a long-term strategic partner that we're building with Lowe's as it gives us the ability to get to an incremental consumer, and we feel like it's -- there will be multiple years of growth. we do have a nice load-in of Lowe's in the fourth quarter of this year. That's just their seasonal load in cycle and ensuring that retail gets set in the first quarter of 2027, and we expect it to be a nice grower over many years.

In terms of the impact on other accounts, notably where exclusivity was an important part of partnership we're doubling down our efforts to ensure we are the best partners that we're bringing the right product, the right differentiation that we are focused on investments, both in-store on the ground with our retail sales specialist program and driving demand by investing in their retail media networks. There has been some near-term impact that we've discussed. And we knew that, that was going to be part of the result of the decisions that we've made. But we really believe that if we build the brand and the product experience, the right way for our end consumer, and we show up as great partners that we can earn that business back.

We really do believe that on balance, this is an opportunity to get to more consumers. We know that we need to continue to service all of our current channel as effectively as we can, and we will be making incremental investments in those channels. because of scale and because we're adding new channels. So we feel over time, it's a net positive. There are certainly -- there are some near-term bumps that we'd anticipated and which are inherent in our guidance, but we think it's -- we continue to believe it's the right thing for us and that it's the right thing for our channels as it gives us the scale to invest in product innovation brand and the overall go-to-market experience.

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Feldman with TAG.

Joseph Feldman

I wanted to just clarify, with regard to the pricing that you got and adjustments you've made, is that across the line of products? Or is it really just that the more entry-priced product that you have there in the stores?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, Joe. So we have been really trying to get to lower price points and doing that by finding efficiencies of scale and efficiencies in the supply chain through avenues such as direct import, so that we can really take cost out and offer a better price and more value to the consumer. The intent of our product line is to create trade-up stories across the line and compelling reasons for a consumer to buy in the price range and in the feature set that they're looking for.

And so as we step back and think about the line getting to opening price point serves a very specific purpose, and that purpose is to acquire an incremental consumer. As we build the features and the benefits across the line, the intent is to meet a consumer where they are to ensure that we're offering as much innovation, quality and value at a price point. And then it's on us to be good at product marketing to really articulate to a consumer why they should spend more to have a better product experience. Our strategy is always to build innovation at premium price points and then cascade that innovation downstream over the course of many product launches.

Westwood is a product that we began to launch mid last year. We've got a lot of work to do to take it to channel in this upcoming year, it hits an accessible price point at $700 and $800 between Westwood Base and Westwood Excel. It has innovation. It's a connected grill. It's got new features and benefits. And we believe there's a compelling reason to trade up from the opening price point, our first-generation Pro up into the Westwood. And it's with that mindset that we're always building our product strategy. So as we bring old technology at scale down to lower price points, it gives us the ability to introduce better experiences at higher price points.

Joseph Feldman

That's really helpful explanation. And then just if I could follow up with one more. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of fuel and transportation costs and the impact there? We're hearing about that from so many companies these days. And I know you guys obviously have a large heavy equipment that you're shipping across the ocean. So maybe you could talk a little bit about that impact. .

Joey Hord

Yes. Joe, it's Joey. So we are absolutely subject to increase in fuel cost, et cetera. We on the previous call, I believe we referenced sort of a $1 million headwind. Keep in mind that, that's materially not changing as fuel rates have fluctuated over the past few months. Keep in mind that most of our freight is long term in Asia from a contract standpoint. So we do believe that there is going to be a headwind as we enter '27. We planned for it -- as of right now, we are appropriately building our freight rates and our increased rates into our guidance for full year.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Madison Calnan ] on for Brian. Acknowledging timing impacts optically, it looks like another top line miss -- what gives you confidence that Q4 and then 2027 will be the return to growth that the market has been anticipating for some time now? .

Joey Hord

Yes, I'll take that one. So thanks for the question. So first off, I think Q3, what we're experiencing is just a tough comp year-over-year. So if you go back to FY '25, there were some pacing dynamics driven by the tariff environment. where Q2 revenue paced into Q3 and Q4 paced into Q3 as well. And then we did have that onetime order in Q3 as well, which buoyed the results. So overall, the comparison was tough. Q3 in FY '25 was the only quarter we grew. As far as the confidence a year, we have had revenue flip from Q3 into Q4 that was driven by a onetime event regarding shipping container availability via which I prepared in my opening remarks via a typhoon. that revenue has already shipped and in October.

And then additionally, just what gives us confidence is the addition of Lowe's. Most of our revenue in Q4 is event-driven regarding orders for a load behind loads. And that's why really we've tightened the range top line and bottom line.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Benedict with Baird.

Peter Benedict

Joey, I don't know if you -- if you'd be willing to kind of put a number on maybe the shift in sales from the, I guess, the typhoon shipment issue 3Q to 4Q, it even and even on the lows selling, just so we get a sense for just the magnitude there. And then as we think about the growth next year, the profit growth, so you're saying that you think you guys can grow your EBITDA next year even as you're cycling kind of the tariff refunds that you're getting this year, I just want to clarify that's what you're saying. And then can you give us a sense of maybe what that tariff refund was in this quarter? I know it wasn't huge, but just curious what that -- when that number was .

Joey Hord

Okay. So the timing shift, I mean, you could probably just do the stop math on it and figure out based on where we landed in the factor reiterating guidance what this timing shift was on that. it was material, and we did not guide to Q3, but we did speak about the shaping of the P&L. As far as the low size, it is material for us. It is -- there is a meaningful load- in Q4. It's event-driven. And it is driving what we're considering or return to growth. We referred to this as a trough year. We do believe that Q4 just implied in the guidance is going to be return to growth and profitable growth. And that's really going to be the start of quarter-over-quarter growth within FY '27. We're obviously not guiding to that yet, but we are excited about the partnership. We're excited about the product and innovation order offering at more accessible price points. And we do think that's going to be a nice tailwind as we deliver growth and profitable growth in Q4.

As far as the tariff refund, we have talked about the 16.5% approximately IEEPA tariff refund. We've collected nearly 100% of it. It's currently in our guidance. So that does create a headwind when we think about FY '27 and copying that versus FY '26. At the same time, we are deliberately talking about a return to growth and expansion of EBITDA next year, I mean that we do believe, even with the tough comparison when you normalize for the tariff refund, we are going to be driving both top line and bottom line growth.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.