ジオパーク（GPRK）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：ベア鉱区とバカ・ムエルタの成長

主要なポイント

• GeoParkの2026年第3四半期の平均生産量は日量27,973 boe（バレル油当量）となり、前四半期比で約3%増加しました。これはアルゼンチンの生産量が51%増の約2,100 boe/dに増加した一方、コロンビアが約25,900 boe/dで安定して推移したためです。
• 売上高は1億1,620万ドル、調整後EBITDAは4,580万ドル（マージンは39%）となりました。原油のスプレッド（価格差）拡大と既存のヘッジ取引の影響により、総合実現価格は第2四半期の67.20ドル/boeから56.20ドル/boeに下落しました。
• 生産boeあたりの操業費用は、コロンビアにおけるエネルギー価格の上昇、井戸の改修作業（ウェル・インターベンション）の増加、およびコロンビアとアルゼンチンの通貨高を反映し、前四半期の17.90ドルから20.70ドルに上昇しました。
• GeoParkは年内にベネズエラのベア（Bare）鉱区の操業を引き継ぐ見込みです。経営陣は2027年に100〜150鉱井の再稼働と約25件の修復工事（ワークオーバー）を計画しており、掘削は2028年に開始される予定です。
• 当四半期中に同社は7,220万ドルの設備投資を実施しました。四半期末時点の現金残高は2億5,340万ドルで、純レバレッジ比率は直近12ヶ月の調整後EBITDAに対して1.6倍でした。
• 経営陣は、アルゼンチン、コロンビアにおける好調な業績および第4四半期のヘッジ最適化に支えられ、通期の生産量と調整後EBITDAが既存のガイダンス範囲にとどまるとの予想を維持しました。

主要財務データ

事業および操業実績

コロンビア

生産量は約25,900 boe/dで安定して推移しました。Llanos 34鉱区では水圧圧入およびポリマー圧入の効果が見られたほか、Llanos 123鉱区では開発活動が生産量の押し上げに貢献しました。

CPO-5鉱区では、Milano 1X試掘井のテストで約1,000 boe/dの生産が確認されました。経営陣は、この結果がGeoParkのコロンビアにおける資産群の探鉱ポテンシャルを裏付けるものだと述べています。

収益性は、ヴァスコニア（Vasconia）原油のデファレンシャル（格差）が第2四半期のバレルあたり1.43ドルのディスカウントから6.67ドルへと拡大したことによって悪影響を受けました。経営陣は、米メキシコ湾岸市場への重質油供給の増加、海上運賃の上昇、および地政学的リスクの拡大がその原因であるとしています。

アルゼンチン

アルゼンチンの生産量は前四半期比51%増の約2,100 boe/dに増加しました。ロマ・ハリローサ・エステ（Loma Jarillosa Este）のパッド1030にある5つの鉱井が180段階の水圧破砕作業を経て操業を開始し、生産開始後の現場全体のグロス生産量は日量5,000 boeを超えました。

経営陣によると、バカ・ムエルタ（Vaca Muerta）地区はより連続的で効率的な「ファクトリー方式」の掘削・仕上げプログラムへと移行しつつあります。また、同社は操業現場を地域の石油・ガスパイプラインに接続し、タンクローリーによる輸送の必要性を削減しました。

GeoParkは、バカ・ムエルタ北部に位置する総面積26,900エーカーのコラレラ・ノレステ（Corralera Noreste）鉱区を獲得しました。同社にはこの鉱区の評価とリスク軽減を行うための初期4年間の期間が与えられています。予備的な開発コンセプトには、120以上の鉱井、1億2,000万バレルを超える将来的な推定埋蔵量、および1井あたり1,400万〜1,500万ドルの試算コストが含まれています。経営陣は、油留層の生産性と含水率（ウォーターカット）については引き続き検証が必要であることを強調しました。

ベネズエラ

ベア鉱区に関する25年間の生産参加契約は、契約上の期限より早く約65日後に有効となりました。GeoParkは2026年末までに操業の引き継ぎを完了させる見込みです。

開発の第1段階では既存鉱井の再稼働に注力し、その後に掘削と蒸気圧入を行います。2030年までに計画されている300〜450件の再稼働のうち、経営陣は2027年に100〜150件を見込んでいます。また、計画されている100件の修復工事のうち約25件も2027年に予定されています。掘削は2028年に年間12〜15井のペースで開始される見込みで、2030年までに30井を目指しています。

リグ、化学品、人工採油、油井管、エンジニアリングに関連するサービスなど、引き継ぎに不可欠とされる契約の50%以上がすでに締結されました。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

GeoParkは、通期の生産量および調整後EBITDAが引き続き以前提示したガイダンス範囲内に収まると見込んでいます。経営陣は、アルゼンチンおよびコロンビアからの寄与度上昇に加え、第4四半期のヘッジポジションの最適化をその理由に挙げています。

同社によると、バカ・ムエルタ、ベア、コラレラの各鉱区における2027年の所要資金は総額で確保されています。リファイナンス実施後、新規社債による手取額は純額で約1億7,000万ドルとなりました。既存の現金および設定済みの未消化設定枠を含め、経営陣は利用可能な調達資金を概ね6億ドル〜7億ドルと推計しています。

GeoParkは、2027年中にコロンビアにおける電力需要の固定価格契約比率を約75%まで引き上げる計画です。エネルギーヘッジおよび規制電力料金の引下げ効果は、2026年第4四半期から現れ始めています。

リスクと注目領域

• 当四半期のブレント原油価格が平均バレルあたり91.40ドルであったにもかかわらず、ヴァスコニアおよびメダニト（Medanito）のデファレンシャル拡大が実現価格を下押ししました。経営陣は、デファレンシャル圧力の継続期間については依然として不透明であると述べています。
• 既存の商品ヘッジにより、第3四半期の売上高は3,640万ドル減少しました。ヘッジは資金調達や返済義務の履行を支える一方で、原油価格上昇による恩恵を制限する要因となっています。
• 操業費用は引き続きコロンビアの電力価格および為替変動の影響を受けます。経営陣の推計によると、エネルギーとコロンビア・ペソ高がそれぞれ従来の費用予想に対しboeあたり約1.50ドルの増加要因となりました。
• 収益性の低下、運転資本の需要、および7,220万ドルの設備投資により、高い投資フェーズにおけるフリーキャッシュフローは引き続きマイナスにとどまりました。
• コラレラ・ノレステ鉱区は依然として評価段階にあり、鉱井の生産性や含水率に関する不確実性が残っています。
• ベア鉱区では、生産再稼働を加速させる前に人員、サービス、機材を安全に統合する必要があります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

ベア鉱区の実行方針： 経営陣は、最初の100日間の最優先事項として、安全な操業統制、機材の調達・動員、鉱井の再稼働を挙げました。初期段階では1〜2基のリグを投入し、段階的に拡大していく見込みです。

コスト削減策： GeoParkはコロンビアにおける電力調達をスポット契約から固定価格契約へ移行しており、エネルギーヘッジの活用と水管理の改善を進めています。アルゼンチンでは、パイプライン接続と排水処理インフラの整備により、同社が操業を引き継いだ当時の約29〜32ドル/boeから10ドル/boe未満へと操業費用が低下したと経営陣は述べています。

ヘッジ戦略： 2027年に向け、平均して日量約22,000バレルがヘッジされています。経営陣は、アルゼンチンとベネズエラからの追加生産により、将来の一定数量は価格上昇の恩恵を受けられる状態を維持できると述べています。また、GeoParkは短期的な価格上昇の恩恵をより多く享受するため、第4四半期のヘッジポジションの一部を繰り延べ（ロールオーバー）、関連する上限価格（キャップ）を撤去しました。

株式公開買い付け（テンダーオファー）： 買い付け手続きはクロージング後90日間行われる予定で、Grupo Gilinskiを除くすべての株主に対して比例的に提供されます。応募が上限を超えた場合、按分比例で割り当てられます。

ベア鉱区関連の潜在的な株式発行： ベネズエラが2026年12月1日までにベア鉱区全体に適用される法人税を明確に引き下げた場合、Grupo Gilinskiに対する追加株式の発行が行われる可能性があります。GeoParkの現在の事業計画では、法人税率を50%と仮定しています。

決算説明会文字起こし（全文）

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the GeoPark Limited Conference Call following the results announcement for the Third Quarter ended September 30, 2026. [Operator Instructions] If you do not have a copy of the press release, it is available in the Invest with Us section of the company's corporate website at www.geo-park.com. A replay of today's call may be accessed through this webcast in the Invest with Us section of the GeoPark corporate website.

Before we continue, please note that certain statements contained in the results press release and on this conference call are forward-looking statements rather than historical facts, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described. With respect to such forward-looking statements, the company seeks protections afforded by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These risks include a variety of factors, including competitive developments and risk factors listed from time to time in the company's SEC reports and public releases. Those lists are intended to identify certain principal factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, but are not intended to represent a complete list of the company's business.

All financial figures included herein were prepared in accordance with the IFRS and are stated in USD, unless otherwise noted. Reserves figures correspond to PRMS standards.

On the call today from GeoPark is Felipe Bayon, Chief Executive Officer, Jaime Caballero, Chief Financial Officer, Rodolfo Terrado, Chief Operating Officer, Rodrigo Dalle Fiore, Chief Exploration and Development Officer, and Catalina Escobar, Shareholder Value and Capital Markets Director.

And now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Felipe Bayon. Mr. Bayon, you may begin.

Felipe Bayon

I would like to highlight 2 important developments that reflect the progress we are making in transforming GeoPark into a more diversified energy company with multiple platforms for long-term growth. Earlier this week, we announced the successful completion of our strategic entry into Venezuela through the Bare Block, following the effectiveness of the 25-year production participation contract with PDVSA. This milestone was achieved well ahead of the original contractual timeline and reflects the execution capabilities of our teams and the constructive collaboration we have built with PDVSA. With the contract now effective, our focus shifts to the safe and disciplined operational takeover of Bare, which we expect to complete before the end of the year. We have already assessed approximately 300 to 400 wells for potential reactivation, establishing a foundation for the initial redevelopment phase. The transaction adds a large-scale, long-duration redevelopment opportunity to our portfolio, with significant potential to restore production by leveraging existing wells and infrastructure. It also marks an important step in our strategy to build a more diversified regional platform.

We also announced recently the award of Corralera Noreste Block in Argentina, adding approximately 26,900 gross acres to our position in Northern Vaca Muerta. This is a very important expansion to our unconventional portfolio, with material resource potential and a strategic location adjacent to an expanding development area. We will approach this opportunity through a phased appraisal program, applying the same technical discipline and investment criteria that guide our capital allocation decisions across the company. Together, these developments reflect the progress we have made in expanding our portfolio beyond Colombia, while preserving the strong operating foundation that has supported GeoPark's growth over the past 2 decades.

Turning now to our third quarter results, we delivered solid operational performance with stable production in Colombia and accelerating growth in Argentina. Consolidated production averaged 27,973 barrels of oil equivalent per day, increasing approximately 3% compared with the prior quarter. In Colombia, production remains stable at approximately 25,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Our Llanos 34 Block continued benefiting from water flooding and polymer injection projects, while Llanos 123 delivered higher production supported by ongoing development activity. At CPO-5, we also achieved encouraging exploration results, including the Milano 1X discovery, which has been testing at around 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reinforcing the remaining potential of our Colombian portfolio.

Argentina continues to demonstrate the progress of our development program. Production increased by 51% quarter-over-quarter to approximately 2,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Following the successful completion and startup of 5 wells at Pad 1030 in Loma Jarillosa Este, these wells underwent 180 hydraulic fracturing stages, and gross field production exceeded 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day following their startup. We are now preparing for the next phase of development with a focus on transitioning towards a more continuous and efficient drilling and completion program.

From a financial perspective, the third quarter was more challenging despite our good operations performance. Although Brent prices remained relatively strong, averaging $91.4 per barrel, our results were significantly affected by wider crude oil differentials in both Colombia and Argentina. In Colombia, the Vasconia differential widened from a discount of $1.43 per barrel in the second quarter to $6.67 per barrel. In Argentina, the Medanito differential shifted from a premium of $1.79 per barrel to a discount of $3.50 per barrel. These movements, together with the impact of our existing commodity hedging contracts, reduced our combined realized price to $56.20 per barrel of oil equivalent compared to $67.20 per barrel in the prior quarter.

Our commodity risk management contract resulted in a negative impact of $36.4 million on revenue compared to $41.2 million in the second quarter. In response, we have continued to actively manage our hedge portfolio to improve future price protection and participation in stronger market conditions, including optimizing our fourth quarter positions and extending coverage into 2028. At the same time, operating costs increased to $20.70 per produced barrel of oil equivalent compared to $17.90 in the prior quarter, mainly reflecting higher energy costs, increased well intervention activities, and the appreciation of the Colombian and Argentine currencies. We recognize the importance of addressing these pressures. Our teams are implementing operational efficiencies and cost optimization initiatives, including energy price hedges designed to mitigate price volatility. As a result of these factors, quarterly revenue reached $116.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA totaled $45.8 million, representing a 39% margin. While financial performance was below the prior quarter, our operational results demonstrate the resilience of our portfolio and the progress of our development program.

We remain focused on improving margins and cash generation through disciplined execution and active cost management. During the third quarter, we invested $72.2 million, primarily focused on development activities in Vaca Muerta and continued production and infrastructure investments in Colombia. Operating cash flow was also impacted by lower profitability and working capital requirements. As expected during this phase of elevated investment, free cash flow remained negative. This reinforces the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and preserving liquidity as we advance our development plans. At quarter end, GeoPark held $253.4 million in cash with net leverage of 1.6x the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA. Following quarter end, we successfully completed our liability management transaction, including a $550 million senior notes issuance due in 2033. This transaction extended our debt maturity profile, addressed our near-term refinancing requirements, and secured long-term funding for a substantial portion of our planned investment program in Vaca Muerta. It represents an important step in aligning our capital structure with our growth strategy and provides greater financial flexibility as we move through this investment phase.

Looking ahead, we continue to expect full-year production and adjusted EBITDA to remain within our guidance ranges, supported by growing production contributions from Argentina and Colombia and the optimization of our fourth quarter hedge positions. Our priorities remain clear. Complete the safe operational takeover of the Bare Block, accelerate development in Vaca Muerta, sustain the performance of our Colombian assets, and maintain discipline in the allocation of capital. When I look at the progress we have made over past year, I see a company that has significantly expanded its growth opportunities while continuing to build on the operating strengths of its Colombian business. We recognize the challenges reflected in this quarter's financial results, and we remain focused on the actions needed to improve profitability, generate sustainable cash flow, and create long-term value for our shareholders.

Finally, I want to recognize our employees for their commitment to safety, operational excellence, and disciplined execution, and thank our partners and shareholders for their continued support.

Thank you again for joining us today. With that, we are ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jacob Roberts with TPH Research.

質疑応答

Jacob Roberts

I wanted to start on Venezuela and some of the numbers that were referenced in the September call and then also this morning. But roughly, we are looking at 300 to 400 reactivations, I think 100 workovers, and then 30 potential new drill horizontals by 2030, I think with the new drill starting in 2028. So now that the CPP is effective, you're taking over before year-end, can you walk us through the cadence across those 3 buckets year by year to reach that 2030 exit rate?

Felipe Bayon

Thanks, Jacob. Good news, I found the unmute button because I didn't at the beginning of the call, so apologies for that. I think you may have missed my first sentence. So absolutely, Jacob. In terms of the Bare Block, we signed the contract, and we had up to 120 days to make that effective. We actually took only 65 days, roughly, to make that happen. So we're well ahead of schedule, which is great. And currently, we're -- I mean, with our teams and working with PDVSA to take over the operation before year-end. So, a lot of activity, a lot of preparation, a lot of work being done in terms of supply chain, people, and the likes. But I'd like to ask Martin to take us through some of the details, especially around reactivations, workovers, and everything else, and how we are viewing that. Martin?

Rodolfo Terrado

Absolutely, Felipe. Jacob, so I will put a little bit of color into where we are and reiterate what Felipe was saying. Safely taking over the operations is our top priority, and that's something that we are planning and feel comfortable on doing before the end of this year. The first phase of the 3 phases that we presented is reactivation, followed by drilling, and then steam injection. So for the first year, we're going to be doing reactivation, and eventually, we'll start doing drilling next year. What we have, and when we look at the numbers, out of the 300 to 450 reactivations we're going to be doing by 2030, 1/3 of those would be done next year. So we're talking about 100 to 150 reactivations that we're going to be performing. That's basically OpEx.

When we move to the next category, which is workovers, so you spend a little bit more time on that and more money. Out of the 100 workovers that we said by 2030, it's going to be about 1/4, so 25% of those will be done in 2027. And then when we talk about drilling, by 2030, we did say 30 wells. That's about 12 to 15 wells per year, and we will start drilling operations in 2028. So from a drilling perspective, it's 0 for 2027.

Now I do want to take a few more minutes to talk about 2 things. One is readiness, and the other one is our relationship with PDVSA, which is very, very good. On readiness, right now, we have more than 50% of the contracts that are critical to take over operations already awarded, and we're awarding the remaining in the next 2 to 3 weeks. So we feel confident about that. And which are those contracts? That's rigs, chemicals, artificial lift, tubulars, and engineering, because on the reactivation, it's not only reactivating wells, but we are aware that as we go into some paths, we will have to do some engineering to understand the integrity of facilities. So that one, we feel very good about it, and actually, we had a visit with PDVSA in which we got really high ranking, and that's part of the requirements to get the effective approval.

The other one I want to talk about, readiness teams on the ground. We have teams both in Caracas and in El Tigre for the past 1.5 months. We have offices in both places, and we already have an understanding and the names of the PDVSA employees that are going to be joining the Bare Block development.

And finally, I just want to say once again that we feel that the reason why we have been able to accelerate this timing that Felipe was saying to be effective is not only what GeoPark is doing, but our relationship with PDVSA. And we continue to work on many fronts, including identifying which of the wells that we're reactivating jointly with them. So, we feel very good about what's coming in Venezuela.

Jacob Roberts

That was great detail and super helpful. And then for my second question, I wanted to move to Argentina, and I apologize for my pronunciation here, but in the Corralera Noreste, we just don't have access to much well data. And so, I'm wondering if you could talk about the technical case of the asset, and specifically what data your team was looking at, what you're seeing in terms of rock quality, all those kind of details, and then ultimately what you're expecting out of the asset to make it competitive with the current Vaca Muerta blocks.

Felipe Bayon

So absolutely, Jacob. And before handing over to Rodrigo, I'll just give you a bit of context, which I think is relevant. The first thing is that, the award is official now for Corralera, so that's great. We're in the process of closing, so it will take some weeks probably to get everything sorted in terms of the contracts and everything else.

And as probably you're aware, and we've announced this to the market, we have 4 years initially to do a lot of work to derisk the area. And I know Rodrigo will go into some detail, but briefly, if you think about the neighborhood, obviously, this is different from where we have the other 2 blocks that we're operating right now, but there's probably around 80,000 barrels of production being done by other companies in the area. This is around 27,000 acres gross, so that would take us, in terms of GeoPark, adding the existing 2 blocks and this one to 39,000 acres, which is great. And we've identified, remember in Loma Jarillosa and Puesto Silva, we have 2 landing zones. In this one, we see 2 to 4 landing zones.

So good news, we have the acreage, we have the possibility of starting the work. We have 4 years to start this derisking, so in that sense, we can phase things accordingly in terms of capital efficiency and logistics and everything else.

So, Rodrigo, if you can provide us a bit more detail, that'd be great.

Rodrigo Fiore

Sure. First of all, this asset we consider complement our current portfolio in Argentina because we have 12,000 acres, as Felipe mentioned, 3 years of development in the current asset. This new asset can provide, before the activity that we have to do to evaluate the subsurface potential, another 27 acreage that allow us to continue developing the area and with the drilling rigs and also with new wells.

The asset is located in the oil window, so that is very important for us. It's located in the north of the basin, in what we call the new hub, near to infrastructure, so that is good. Chevron, Pluspetrol, Tecpetrol, and YPF in the north actually are developing unconventional in the area, so that's why we believe we are in the right neighborhood. The information, you ask about the information we have, the previous operator did a well. With the well, we know that the reservoir is there. What we are going to test during these 4 years is the potential and the productivity of the well. One of the uncertainties that we have is the water cut that we are going to produce. The well type that we are looking for here is similar to El Trapial. In the south, Chevron is producing from El Trapial, very good results from there. So what we are expecting is to try to achieve that well type. We are talking about more than 1 million barrels per well in that case.

The landing zones that we are going to test during these 4 years are the T7 and the Veracian. Those landing zones are tested by the neighborhood, but not tested by the previous operators. So that's why we are going to introduce something new in the equation here.

You asked about competitiveness. So the plan that we have today is preliminary, as with the information surrounded. We are talking about more than 120 wells for the development. We are thinking about conventional well at the moment, so 3,000 lateral length, because the polygon of the block allows us to think about that. More than 120 million of potential reserves in the future. And the well cost is between $14 million and $15 million, as you can see many of the other operators in the area. So it's preliminary. We have to test the potential of the reservoir, but that's the bet that we have in Vaca Muerta today.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro Demichelis with Jefferies.

Alejandro Anibal Demichelis

Couple of questions, if I may. The first one is, Felipe, you mentioned you're focused on the cost structure now, that all of the team is looking at that. Maybe you can kind of indicate how you're seeing this evolution of cost, both in Argentina and also in Colombia, and also with the new acreage that you have coming up in Venezuela.

The second question is a bit of a follow-up on what you discussed on Venezuela. Now you have closed the deal, there's still some kind of milestones that may trigger or may not actually trigger, call it an extra amount of shares for your controller. So could you kind of explain what those milestones are and how you see those kind of evolving?

Felipe Bayon

Thanks, Alejandro. And if I may, I'll probably start with the second question, and then I'll ask Jaime and Martin to help us with the first one. So in terms of the Bare Block, and how do we view it? As I was mentioning before, Alejandro, we still need to start operations, which is great. We want to do that before year end. And I mean, all the attention focus is on that. How do we, as Martin was explaining, conduct operations in a way that's safe, that's efficient? And again, we're going to start, even though we've done assessments of the area, of the wells, we've gathered the data. It's one thing when you go in and get to the field and start putting the wells into operations and restoring production. So that's going to take us some time, and Martin was clearly explaining, focus is going to be on reactivating the wells. The good news, the well stock is very ample. We've looked at 300 to 400 of the 1,100 wells, and next year it's going to be 120 or something in that range. So from that point of view, I think, Alejandro, we're good.

In terms of the milestones that may trigger or not, and probably Jaime can go into some more detail, we did announce the issuance of the shares related to Bare, to the Bare Block, and we announced a potential additional of shares that could be triggered by milestones, mainly related to some tax events that could happen in Venezuela.

So, Jaime, do you want to talk a little bit about that?

Jaime Caballero Uribe

Yes, sure. Absolutely. So the milestones that Felipe refers to, they're basically linked to the tax conditions in Venezuela, particularly around the corporate income tax that applies to the different types of fields that you have in Venezuela. The specific circumstance is that there are -- there is an ongoing discussion between the Venezuela executive and the Congress around what are the most appropriate conditions to reactivate the industry going forward. And in that context, there is the possibility that the corporate income tax that is applicable to a field such as Bare gets a downward revision. So currently, our business case has the assumption that we're going to be paying a 50% corporate income tax over time, and there is the possibility that this could be reviewed downwards over the next few weeks.

What we have agreed with Grupo Gilinski as part of this transaction is that, if these revisions occur by the 1st of December of this year, we would have that adjustment. Importantly, the revision needs to be absolutely clear in scope. It needs to be very clear that it applies to Bare in its integrity, and if we have that condition met, then we would apply this clause that implies an additional share grant to the Grupo Gilinski.

Felipe Bayon

Thanks, Jaime. And if we can go to the first question from Alejandro on costs.

Jaime Caballero Uribe

Sure. So Alejandro, sorry, and I didn't actually say hi. So on costs, I would start by saying that, of course, the company continues to have a very astringent view around operating costs, and we are very conscious that over the -- over this quarter and the last, we've had a significant increase in our unit costs, right? I think the way to think about it is, if you think about our earlier guidance for this year, where we were in the $13 to $15 per barrel range, and now we are at $20, how do we describe the $5, $6 of difference? And fundamentally, what's happening is 2/3 of that variation, it's associated to Colombia macro factors that are largely outside of our control. It's energy costs, which represent about $1.5 per barrel, and the FX impact associated to a stronger peso that represents about $1.5 per barrel.

The other element, the other 1/3, is more activity. We're having more activity levels in Llanos 34 in particular, and Martin is going to explain that in a moment. I want to focus on what's going on in energy and in FX, and what we're doing about it. Basically, in energy, due to the gas shortages in Colombia, which imply significant imports, we're having a material increase in the cost associated to electricity coming from the grid. There's a number of sources, I don't want to go into a lot of detail here, but basically, that expansion of imports associated to gas, it reflects in spot prices in the grid.

In GeoPark, we've had historically a significant exposure to spot pricing because it's proven to be most cost-effective over the long-term than fixed prices. That was the reality in the past, right? As we go into this transition in the Colombian energy grid, that's changing, and we're moving to a place where spot pricing is becoming very volatile. It's expected to grow over the next few years significantly, and we're making that transition from a spot price to fixed price. And that gives us a better outlook going forward.

There are 3 specific things that we see that are kicking in, in 4Q. The first one is, we're starting to see some of the fixed pricing coming in, in 4Q. We're basically going to move from a place where about 60% of our pricing is fixed, coming from PEL, which is the grid that hits Llanos, to a place where only about 45% is going to be bought from spot.

The second thing that's going to kick in is PEL grid rates. The CREG, which is the commission with the new government that governs energy matters in Colombia, already made an intervention that represents about a 30% discount on energy rates that we're getting from the grid. That's kicking in as well this quarter.

And the last thing that I want to highlight is some energy hedges that we have contracted. Those energy hedges basically guarantee us a fixed price that is about 1/3 of the rates that we paid over 3Q. So, it's a substantial saving on the spot pricing that we paid over 3Q. And all of that starts to kick in in 4Q. That gives us a better outlook.

Now, as we look into the longer term, what we want to do over 2027 is move to a place where about 75% of our demand is linked to fixed pricing, and that's something that is work in progress, and we will keep you updated around that.

With regards to FX, that's public, and you can very easily see what's going on with it between the Colombian peso and the dollar. Essentially, what we're doing is, we are ensuring that we have downside protection. If we have an extreme scenario where the exchange rates go below COP 3,000 per dollar, we're protected against that. We have hedges that protect us against that. So, if you will, the downside exposure is already limited.

The other thing that we're doing is, we're reviewing our entire cost base to see where we can have opportunities to improve efficiency and mitigate that exposure that we have. Having said that, to the extent that the FX rate stays at the current levels, around COP 3,200, COP 3,300 per dollar, we will continue to have that increase, if you will, dollar-based exposure.

So with that, I'm going to hand it over to Martin to talk a bit more about the activity drivers.

Rodolfo Terrado

Yes. I'll build on Jaime's. And Alejandro, thanks again for joining our call. So if we think about Colombia, Jaime was saying, $1.5 energy, $1.5 exchange rate, and that's dollars per barrel, and the remaining is maybe operations. And for Colombia, if we think about Llanos 34, and that's where most of the OpEx increase has happened. I'll talk a little bit about Llanos 123, but in Llanos 34, the first half of the year, we had a failure rate that was outside of the ranges we used to have. That means more pulling jobs than expected. That has changed. We are not having that in the second half of the year.

And the other component from that incremental in pulling jobs is, proactively, we have done what we call deepening, which is basically to put the well, the pump at a lower depth or a bigger pump and produce more fluid, so that we can arrest the declines. And we still had some of those candidates early in the year. So that's when you think about the pulling reason for the OpEx being higher.

So what are the things that we're doing in Colombia to arrest part of this incremental OpEx? And I'll say it's mainly 2 big buckets. The first big bucket is water management. So that's why workovers are so important in Llanos 34. Some of those workovers are doing water shutoffs, or they're doing incremental production, or both. And we continue to do workovers. We're actually doing about 8 more workovers than expected, agreed with our partner, and they're delivering good value.

When you look at Llanos 123, water management means simplifying and reducing water trucking. And so, we've done that in the past 9 months. We have 2 pads, and we have reduced the water trucking between pads by engineering some of the facilities so that we can treat the water and inject it in the same location. So that's another of the things that we've done.

And then the other component, it's for Colombia, what else can we do on energy efficiency? And one of the things that we're doing is, like Jaime was saying, is not only hedges, but can we switch a little bit the feed of our machines from diesel to other sources? So that's giving us some savings. Year-to-date, we got savings of around $7 million that are being counteracted with the effect of exchange rate and energy.

And I don't want to forget about Argentina. And yes, Argentina is contributing with around 5,000 barrels of the total production that we got. And for the quarter, it was, like we mentioned, around 28,000 barrels of oil per day. So -- but Argentina, when we took over operations a little bit over a year ago, the OpEx was high 20s, low 30s. So, between $29 and $32 per barrel. I don't remember exactly, but that was the order. And now we are below $10 per barrel. And that's because of all the work, and you guys have followed us on the facilities and the investments. Very proud of what the team has done, incident-free, and now we are not trucking crude. The crude goes into a pipeline. We're not trucking water. The water goes into a disposal well, and we're also piping the gas. So all of those things, plus the upscaling that we did in Loma Jarillosa battery, is helping us keep the OpEx on the trend that we have in mind, and it's our plan.

Operator

And we now have a few questions from the webcast. Daniel Guardiola from BTG asks, "Given Felipe's experience operating large oil and gas assets across Latin America, which do you believe represents the greater execution challenge today, scaling up a relatively new unconventional development in Vaca Muerta or rehabilitating a mature, underinvested asset in Venezuela? How does that assessment influence where you allocate management attention and capital?"

Felipe Bayon

Thanks for the question, Daniel, thanks for following us always and for the interest in the company. So I'd say that the 2 are different, and they actually give us probably different challenges and different opportunities. If you step back for a second and you think about GeoPark, and I think with the current portfolio, now that we've made Bare effective, the CPP contract effective, we're in reality with a platform in Latin America that has conventional oil in Colombia with heavy crude as well, unconventionals in Argentina, and extra-heavy oil in Venezuela. So, 3 different types of crude, 3 different operations. The good news, over the last year, in Vaca Muerta in particular, and with the team that we've managed to assemble, with a lot of people with many years of experience around unconventionals, we're actually advancing well, in terms of activity, in terms of intensity. And as we've described before, Vaca Muerta is going to be a highly intensive CapEx development over the next few years.

So, it's about execution on drilling and factory mode drilling, which starts in December. And the good news, we've already drilled 5 wells, and that was done earlier in this year, in March, April. So, all that information, all that experience, all the things that we found in the subsurface have been incorporated into the plans going forward.

And the other good thing that we probably haven't talked too much about, we actually just finished a very high-quality 3D seismic survey in the area that's going to provide a lot of data going forward. So, very specific in terms of the challenges that entails or that brings with itself in terms of Vaca Muerta, and we're on track with the investment and the ramp-up of production. So, that's good. And as Martin was highlighting, over the last year, a good reduction in lifting costs, which is always important.

And in terms of Bare, and when you step back again, a field that has, or a block that has close to 16 billion barrels oil in place, where we've, at least identified that over the next 25 years, we can produce some 600 million barrels, has plenty of opportunities, and it's around reactivation. So, challenges there would be around getting the pulling rigs and the small rigs, I mean, the 350 horsepower, 550 horsepower in the field on time, starting the reactivations, getting the right people. And as Martin was highlighting, we've already awarded around 50% of the services that are required. And we're very comfortable. A lot of those companies are companies that we've operated with before or that have a lot of experience in La Faja, which is great.

And the other thing, Daniel, I'll step back, I think, and you rightly point out different challenges, different natures of the developments, we have very, very good teams for both Vaca Muerta and Bare. So I'm very confident with that. And in parallel with that, we'll keep on taking care of Colombia. So we're not forgetting what has brought us here and what's enabling us to take this step. So personally, I'm very thrilled. I'm very optimistic. I mean, there will be things down the road. There will be probably surprises, but I think the opportunity set is one that's very high-quality and again, puts us in the range of a regional platform for investors and for people that want to be with GeoPark for the long-term.

Operator

Daniel's second question is, "Given the significant losses recognized this year and your substantial hedging commitments through 2028, how are you balancing downside protection against the opportunity cost of capping upside, particularly as production ramps up in Argentina and Venezuela?"

Felipe Bayon

Thanks, Daniel, and I'll link it to the first question you made. So clearly, Argentina and Venezuela are providing additional volumes going forward. So there will be increasing production in Vaca Muerta as we drill and we finish some of the facilities. By the way, we've -- over the last couple of weeks, we've already done the initial tie-ins to regional oil pipelines and gas pipelines. So evacuation is something that we're in a much better place right now with reduced trucking. So there will be volumes. And again, as we take control of operation in Venezuela of the Bare Block, we'll start seeing production increase. And I mean, we've told before in terms of gross numbers, probably around 15,000 to 20,000 barrels in terms of Bare.

And if you step back, you think that our volumes that are hedged for next year are roughly 22,000 barrels average for the year. So there will be incremental volumes coming in that will be, to some extent, able to be exposed to higher prices should they remain.

And I think it's important just to step back for a second. A year ago, when we made the decision to enter into 2 blocks in Vaca Muerta, we very specifically said, "We need the hedging to ensure that we can fund the CapEx and pay our debts." And we knew that this quarter, 3Q in particular, was going to be tough and that we were going to be in a sort of a tight spot. But I think it's delivering the strategy going forward. And again, I think we're in a good place in that sense, being able to deliver investments going forward.

Operator

And the final question from Daniel is, "Given Grupo Gilinski's role in originating the Bare transaction, should we expect additional investment opportunities in Venezuela to emerge through the controlling shareholder? If so, how would GeoPark approach funding these acquisitions, and what safeguards would be in place to ensure the future transactions do not result in further dilution of minority shareholders or create potential conflicts of interest?"

Felipe Bayon

Thanks, Daniel, and a great question. And first of all, I just want to acknowledge that working with Grupo Gilinski over the Venezuela opportunity was fundamental to get to where we are today. Very, very quickly and in a way that was very efficient, get the opportunity in front of GeoPark and then being able to close on the deal with Grupo Gilinski.

And the one thing I'd say, Daniel, is that, any opportunity and all opportunities coming forward for the company will be managed through GeoPark. So everything will be done using GeoPark as a vehicle in Venezuela, or should there be other opportunities going forward. But I just want to reinforce one point. I think that over the last 12 months, we've managed to assemble a very competitive portfolio. And right now, I think our focus is mostly on execution, on delivery of what we've managed to build as a very, very competitive, high-quality portfolio.

Operator

Returning to our audio questions, your next question is coming from the line of Joaquin Robet with Balanz Capital. Joaquin, are you there? I believe Joaquin has also sent a question. Are you there, Joaquin?

We'll move on to our next text question. It comes from Vicente Falanga with Bradesco. What is the company's expectations regarding the timing of the tender process for shares? Is the offer proportional to all shareholders? That's the first question from Vicente.

And then he follows up with, "In the release, GeoPark said it could already assume operations before year-end. What will be the key short-term operational milestones for the first 100 days?"

Jaime Caballero Uribe

Vicente, thanks for your questions. I'll take the first one. And basically, the timing of the tender process is governed by the contract, the PSA (sic) [ SPA ] that we agreed with Grupo Gilinski, and it basically provides for a 90-day period post-closing to perform the tender. And that initiated last Monday, and it's going to go through the next 88 days, if you will. And the offer is proportional to all shareholders, excluding Grupo Gilinski. So it's available to all the shareholders of the company outside of Grupo Gilinski. And in the event of an oversubscription, tenders are going to be awarded on a pro rata basis. Over to Martin.

Rodolfo Terrado

Yes, Vicente, thanks for your question. So in relation to, okay, what are the short-term operational milestones? I'll give a little bit more information of what I described before, but I'll say that it's mainly around safely taking over the operations. It's mainly around incorporating equipment to the block, and that's so that we can reactivate wells. And incorporating equipment is the rigs. We're targeting between 1 and 2 rigs to start, and then we will continue to ramp up. And equipment is also wellheads, tubulars, and so forth.

And the other component in the first 100 years -- 100 days, sorry, is make sure that, we are -- just like we did in Argentina, the teams are bonding and that we got -- continue to have a good relationship with PDVSA in our way forward. So how are we going to measure that? I'll say that our key performance indicators for the first 100 days are going to be incident-free operations, so safety again, and then it's going to be around production levels. I mean, where are we on production versus what we got when we started the operations? And then we will move into efficiencies. But I'll say that in the first 100 days, it's going to be about reactivation and safe operations.

Operator

Your next question comes from Joaquin Robet from Balanz Capital. And they ask, "After the recent bond issuance, how much additional funding do you need through 2027, including Vaca Muerta, Corralera, and Bare? If there is a remaining funding gap beyond the Vitol facility, how do you plan to cover it, and how much of that financing is already committed?

Jaime Caballero Uribe

Joaquin, thanks for your question. So firstly, I would say that we are very happy to have secured investor support to our growth plans recently with these bond issuance. The 2033 tenor provides ample room to deliver our growth plans that revolve around the portfolio transition that Felipe has described. So from that angle, it's very strategic that we are getting that investor support, and we really appreciate it.

Now, when we go into the numbers, when you look at the net proceeds of the recent issuance, once we refinance the 2027s, which we already did, so that's taken care of, and the 2030s, everything that was tendered, our net proceeds sum about $170 million. So that $170 million need to be added to our existing cash position, which, as you would have seen in the Q3 results, was in the order of $250 million. And on top of that, we have a number of available committed lines undrawn, which include Vitol, but there's more to that. We have a couple of other lines, including a club line with a set of international and Colombian banks that is in the amount of $150 million, plus a number of revolving facilities in Argentina, which are available to the Vaca Muerta operation, which together, those lines in Argentina amount to about $150 million.

So where I am going here is that basically, when you add all that up, we're talking about available financing in the order of $600 million to $700 million, which provides ample leeway for what we're trying to do in Vaca Muerta.

Now, to put that in context, of course, as we look at market conditions over the next year and how Vaca Muerta is progressing, we're going to be seeing what is the most efficient use of those lines. And I would characterize the Vitol line and the contingent line with the club deal as contingent lines. They're safety nets. They're not part of our core plan, but they're available. So I think our decisions around funding Vaca Muerta are going to depend a lot on how market conditions evolve over the next 12 months or so. But 2027 is funded in aggregate, including all the requirements, not only of Vaca Muerta, but of Bare and Corralera.

Operator

Our final question is from Andres Pautasso from Argentaria. I am surprised by the level of Vasconia differential over the quarter and the transport cost. What are the main drivers that affected them during their quarter? What do you foresee for the remainder of the year and first half of 2027, mitigation measures you are taking to counter the impact on realized prices?

Jaime Caballero Uribe

So on Vasconia, so the first thing that I would say is that, we were also surprised with what's happening in Vasconia. This is completely unprecedented. It's completely unexpected, right? And we need to start from there, right? It's a very atypical market situation that we have never seen before. It doesn't affect just GeoPark. It affects all the Colombian operators that use the Vasconia reference. And it's not just affecting Vasconia. It's affecting basically all the heavy oil crudes that go to the Gulf of Mexico refineries, essentially. So this is, if you will, an industry issue, which actually has knock-on effects on Medanito, but it's primarily right now about Colombian crude that's going to Gulf of Mexico, and that's the connection with Vasconia.

So basically, what's happening? It's multiple factors, but I would summarize it around 3 things. Basically, with the sustained high prices that we have seen over this year, it provides an incentive to otherwise not profitable heavy oil to be produced. So basically, we're getting new supply from Canada, from Mexico, into the Gulf of Mexico, which is in turn depreciating, if you will, or taking off competitiveness of Colombian crude. That's one of the factors.

The second factor is that, freight costs have gone significantly high across the Caribbean, and actually, it's a worldwide phenomenon associated to that Hormuz disruption, what's going on in the Gulf. Basically, as the conflict has sustained for now more than 6 months, it's all reflected in freight costs, and those freight costs are affecting the Vasconia differential and the transport costs associated to that crude. That's the second important component, I'd say.

Now, when you think about, is this structural or temporary? Our view is this is not structural. This is linked to the current oil market conditions and disruptions. And to the extent that those geopolitical situations unwind, this is going to go back. This is going to go back to normal because the fundamentals are still there. The crude hasn't lost its quality. The crude hasn't lost its appeal for the Gulf of Mexico refineries, so that should normalize. The question is, how long is it going to take? And we don't know. We don't know how long is it going to take.

So what are we doing about it? We're doing 2 or 3 things. The first thing is, we're actually optimizing our hedging positions, and there's been a number of questions around hedging. We've left space within our hedging policy to do a specific, if you will, surgical interventions in our hedging positions, and we're doing that in the fourth quarter. Basically, what we've done is, we've taken part of the volume that we have hedged in 4Q, and we released the ceilings that we had associated to that through a rollover mechanism. Basically, what we're doing is, we are taking the existing positions into the future at better pricing conditions because the futures curve has improved, and we are giving ourselves more room to capture a higher pricing in 4Q. That should, to a large extent, offset what's going on with Vasconia, provided that stays within reasonable levels. And we're going to see how that evolves over the next 45 days. That's been one intervention.

The other intervention that we're doing is revisiting our commercial strategy along with other operators that use the Vasconia reference. We're not alone. If you look at basically all the Colombian operators use either directly or indirectly the Vasconia reference, and we are in discussions with them around how to navigate this situation in terms of whether there's possibility of blending crudes together, aggregating supply so we get better conditions, and things like that. And more technical things, such as working with Platts in terms of ensuring that the Vasconia marker is adequately priced, or if there are opportunities around that. So those are the sort of things that we're doing right now, which should help us mitigate to some degree what's going on in the broader market.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bayon for closing remarks.

Felipe Bayon

Thank you, and thanks again for being here with us today, for your interest in GeoPark. We're very excited with the moment we're in terms of our strategy that was laid out almost a year ago when we decided to protect what we have and get back to growth. Growth does come with some pains, and we've had to increase our level of activity, our CapEx, and we've addressed some of those issues during our release and during this call today. We are on track in terms of Vaca Muerta. There's going to be intensity ramping up as we drill more wells and we have factory drilling mode, and we're absolutely thrilled with getting control of operations in Bare Block before the end of the year.

And again, thanks for being here today. Thanks for the questions, and hopefully we'll be able to see you in the next results conference call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.