ハバーティズ（HVT）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：売上成長とマージン見通しの引き上げ

要点

• ハーバティーズ（Havertys）が発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比4.5%増の2億320万ドルとなり、既存店売上高は4.1%増加しました。
• 売上総利益率は320万ドルの関税払い戻しに支えられ、200ベーシスポイント（bp）拡大して62.3%となりました。関税払い戻しを除いた売上総利益率は60.7%でした。
• 希薄化後1株当たり利益（EPS）は前年同期の0.28ドルから0.39ドルに上昇しました。関税払い戻しを除いた純利益は400万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり0.25ドル）でした。
• 来客数は1桁台半ばの減少となったものの、コンバージョン率は堅調を維持し、主に価格改定の影響により平均客単価は7.4%上昇しました。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の売上総利益率の見通しを61.3%〜61.5%に引き上げたものの、配送費、輸送費、外部決済コストの上昇に伴い、変動販売管理費の見通しを引き上げました。
• ハーバティーズの当四半期末時点の現金および現金同等物は1億2030万ドル、有利子負債はゼロで、リボルビング信用枠の利用可能額は1億ドルでした。

主要財務データ

売上高販売管理費率は前年同期の57.8%から58.6%に上昇しました。歩合給、外部決済コスト、株式報酬、インセンティブ報酬、グループ保険費用の増加が主因となりました。経営陣によると、一般管理費増加のうち約200万ドルは株式報酬の権利確定加速によるものであり、短期的には再発しない見込みです。

事業および業績の動向

当四半期の来客数は1桁台半ばの減少となったものの、堅調なコンバージョン率と平均客単価の7.4%上昇が売上成長を支えました。経営陣は、客単価上昇の主な要因は引き続き価格改定であり、1取引当たりの点数は概ね横ばいであったと説明しました。

デザイナー事業は4%成長し、事業全体の34.6%を占めました。デザイナー事業の平均客単価は7.2%上昇しました。カスタムオーダーは16.9%増加し、ソファ・椅子類売上の31.4%を占めました。

カテゴリー別の受注高では、ソファ・椅子類が1桁台半ばの増加となりました。オケーショナル家具、ベッドルーム家具、ダイニング家具は1桁台前半の増加となった一方、マットレスとインテリア装飾品は1桁台前半の減少となりました。Webサイトのオーガニックトラフィック改善に伴い、EC事業の受注高は再び2桁成長を達成しました。

在庫残高は第2四半期末の1億50万ドルから第3四半期末の8670万ドルへと減少しました。経営陣はこの削減が急速すぎたと述べ、顧客への配送需要に対応するため、期末在庫を9000万〜1億ドルと予想しています。

ハーバティーズの第3四半期末時点の店舗数は129店舗で、2026年末までに133店舗に達する見込みです。当四半期中にバージニア州フレデリックスバーグに進出し、同店舗の来客数と売上規模は想定を上回っていると述べました。ピッツバーグへの出店により同社として18番目の州への進出を果たし、第4四半期にはマキニー、スネルビル、ベイタウン、リッチモンドでの新規出店や店舗移転を予定しています。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

ハーバティーズは、関税の払い戻しを受け、2026年通期の売上総利益率見通しを従来の予想から61.3%〜61.5%へと引き上げました。この予測には2026年11月4日時点で有効な関税が含まれていますが、間接調達製品に対する将来的な払い戻しの可能性は除外されています。

固定および任意調整可能な販売管理費は3億700万〜3億900万ドルの範囲にとどまる見込みです。変動販売管理費比率は、燃料関連の配送費および輸送費の上昇と外部決済コストの増大を反映し、19.2%〜19.4%と予測されています。

経営陣は2026年の設備投資計画を3400万ドルで維持しました。これには新規店舗・移転店舗、改装、店舗拡張のための2770万ドル、物流ネットワーク向けに320万ドル、IT向けに約310万ドルが含まれます。見込まれる実効税率は、株式報酬の権利確定影響や新たな税制改正の可能性を除き、26%のまま変更ありません。

リスクと注目点

• 船舶用重油（バンカー油）価格の高騰に伴いコンテナ運賃が25%〜30%上昇しているほか、軽油価格が1ガロン当たり約6ドルで推移しており、配送費、輸送費、資材費を圧迫しています。
• LIFO（後入先出法）コスト、健康保険費、消費者向けファイナンスコストの上昇が続いています。ハーバティーズは、主要なプロモーション期間外における長期無利息キャンペーンの提供基準を厳格化するとともに、一部製品の小売価格を改定しています。
• 同社は、木製フレーム付きソファ・椅子類に対する米国通商拡大法232条に基づく関税変更の可能性や、米国とベトナム間の相互関税取り決めを巡る不透明感を注視しています。
• コンテナの確保状況、米国税関・国境警備局（CBP）による検査強化、ベトナムでの労働力確保、ならびに2027年1月1日に予定されているベトナムでの7%の最低賃金引き上げにより、リードタイムが長期化する可能性があります。
• 経営陣は、これまでのところサプライチェーンの混乱は軽微にとどまっているものの、2027年初めの春節（旧正月）に向けて状況を注視していくと述べました。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、第3四半期の動向において目立った地域差は見られないと報告しました。平均客単価上昇の大部分は価格改定によるものとし、デザインプログラムの顧客参加率を現在の約17%から約25%へと拡大することでさらなる成長が見込めるとの考えを示しました。

選挙関連の政治広告によりテレビCM枠の一部が押し出されたことを受け、ハーバティーズは第4四半期の残りの期間および2027年に向けて積極的にマーケティングを継続する計画です。経営陣はその影響額の具体例を示しませんでした。

消費者の財務状況について、ハーバティーズはファイナンスの承認率は引き続き堅調であると述べました。シンクロニー（Synchrony）を利用する顧客のうち、信用スコアが750を超える店頭申込者の90%近くが承認されました。顧客の約3分の1がシンクロニーのファイナンスを利用しています。

同社は、インフレ圧力を相殺するため、部分的な値上げと販促用ファイナンスの管理強化を実施しています。経営陣は、現時点で顧客向け配送手数料の値上げは検討していないと述べました。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Welcome to the Havertys Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Tiffany Hinkle, Assistant Vice President of Financial Reporting and Investor Relations. Thank you, Tiffany. You may begin.

Tiffany Hinkle

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. I'm here today with our President and CEO, Steve Burdette; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Richard Hare. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from those made or implied in such statements, which we speak only as of the date they are made and which we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include economic and competitive conditions and other uncertainties detailed in the company's reports filed with the SEC.

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. A replay of this call will be available on our Investor Relations website this afternoon. For commentary about our business, I will now turn the call over to Steve.

Steven Burdette

Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning, and thank you for joining our 2026 third quarter conference call. Q3 was another strong quarter with increases in written and delivered comp sales against tougher year-over-year comps. Net sales were $203.2 million, up 4.5% with comp sales up 4.1%. Total written sales increased 2.8% with written comp sales up 2.3%. Additional tariff refunds received during the quarter contributed to gross margin expanding to 62.3% compared with 60.3% last year.

Pretax income was $8.6 million or 4.2% of sales compared with $6.4 million or 3.3% of sales a year ago. Earnings per share was $0.39 versus $0.28 a year ago. Richard will discuss the impact of tariff refunds on gross margins, higher interest rates on credit costs, increase in stock expenses and higher oil prices on delivery, transportation and material costs.

Quarterly traffic declined by mid-single digits, but conversion rates held steady and average ticket rose 7.4%. Written sales varied monthly with the Labor Day event calendar shift. Our July 4 weekend sales started slowly with traffic and sales down during the first 6 days.

The decline can be attributed to many nationwide celebrations of our country's 250th anniversary and July 4 itself falling on a Saturday. Traffic and written sales improved through the rest of July with written sales ending the month up 5.1%.

Given the 1-week calendar shift in Labor Day, we believe August and September are best viewed together. Across those 2 months, traffic remained down mid-single digits, while business increased 1.7%. The 2-week Labor Day event experienced weaker traffic, but we were able to end the 2-week promotion with flat sales compared to last year due to a strong average ticket and steady conversion rates.

Our designer business grew 4% for the quarter, accounting for 34.6% of our business with designer average ticket growing 7.2%. Custom orders rose to 31.4% of our upholstery business, increasing 16.9% over last year. From a category perspective, our written business saw upholstery rise mid-single digits with occasional, bedroom and dining up low single digits and mattresses and decor were down low single digits.

Our merchandising and supply chain teams continue to push to bring in new exciting projects -- products across the merchandise assortment. We are hearing that container availability, Custom Border Protection's enhanced inspections and in Vietnam, the labor availability, along with the government's required 7% wage increase on January 1, 2027, are becoming issues.

We are seeing lead times getting pushed out but we have seen minimal impact on our partners and our supply chain network at this point. As we approach Chinese New Year in early 2027, we will be watching closely for any further disruptions and adjust our ordering patterns accordingly.

Our inventories dropped from $100.5 million at the end of Q2 to $86.7 million at the end of Q3. The efforts by our supply chain to get control of our inventories took a pendulum swing too far during the quarter. We expect to end the year somewhere between $90 million and $100 million, depending on product flow and sales. This is the level of inventory needed to meet our customers' delivery expectations.

Regarding tariffs, all things remain consistent from Q2 with the new Section 301 tariffs implemented in July. However, we are waiting for confirmation from the administration if Section 232 tariffs on upholstered wood furniture will go from 25% to 30% effective January 1, 2027.

Also, we are hearing rumors that the governments of Vietnam and the U.S. have had meetings to finalize the reciprocal agreement between the countries that would remove the current Section 301 tariff of 12.5% imposed in July for a potential higher tariff percentage.

We will make the necessary targeted adjustments in our pricing if these changes occur, but we'll not get ahead of ourselves as this is a fluid situation. As discussed on our Q2 conference call, bunker fuel rates remain high, causing a 25% to 30% increase in our container rates. Diesel fuel at roughly $6 per gallon impacts home delivery and transportation costs as well as material costs, which are up mid-single digits.

LIFO costs are not slowing. Health insurance costs continue to rise and credit costs are becoming more expensive due to usage and interest rate increases. The tariff refunds of $3.2 million helped to offset some of these increases during the quarter.

Our ability to leverage these increases is becoming more difficult in this environment. However, we continue to get more from our marketing spend, which was slightly lower for the quarter. Organic traffic to our site keeps improving, driving double-digit growth in written e-commerce sales for another quarter.

To stay competitive, we continue to offer aggressive no-interest credit promotions such as 48-month and 60-month terms during the promotional periods. But we are implementing tighter controls on their use outside of the promotional periods by raising the average ticket amounts allowed for each promotion.

Our use of AI continues to expand into more customer-facing areas, including customer chat, sales and designer interfaces, marketing, supply chain and home delivery. We believe this helps our team quickly share the most relevant and accurate information with customers, creating a better overall experience.

Ultimately, the way we engage with every customer along their journey creates unmatched value and sets Havertys apart from our competition. We ended the quarter with 129 stores. During the quarter, we opened a new market in Fredericksburg, Virginia, which we are pleased to report is outperforming our traffic and volume expectations.

We plan to open 5 new stores in Q4 and close one that will be a relocation. McKinney, Texas, a suburb of Dallas opened October 30. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania will be opening tomorrow, marking our entry into our 18th state. Snellville, Georgia, a suburb of Atlanta will be relocated to a larger and better location next week and Baytown and Richmond, Texas, both suburbs of Houston, opened in late November and early December, giving us 5 stores in the market.

Also, we finalized the closing of our College Station, Texas store on August 31. The ongoing refresh of our mattress departments and design centers remains on track for completion in all stores in 2027. These improvements provide us with big opportunities to grow these 2 important categories.

We will continue to evaluate our existing leases and locations so that we are reinvesting our capital to create the biggest return for our shareholders. We expect to end the year with 133 stores, and we have several new stores in lease negotiations for 2027 that we hope to be able to announce on our next call.

We are optimistic about finishing the year strong. While many headwinds remain, today, we have turned the page on what we believe has been our biggest headwind over the last few months, the midterm elections. Hotly contested races in Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, where roughly 2/3 of our stores are located, created disruptions in our marketing plans.

More broadly, the news cycle over the last 60 days across our entire footprint was a disruption, but the elections are over. As the country moves forward, we expect our customers to quickly put the midterms behind them and focus on their future.

Looking ahead, our optimism rests on 4 things: first, our people, who share the belief that we must outserve our competition. Second, our design program, which inspires customers and gives them confidence in their decisions with tremendous upside potential. Third, our organic store growth strategy of opening 5 stores a year, which further strengthens and expands the brand; and fourth, our execution with roughly 2,400 team members across 18 states whose hard work, dedication and passion for serving customers, fellow team members and shareholders is contagious and appreciated. I will now turn the call over to Richard.

Richard Hare

Thank you, Steve, and good morning. In the third quarter of 2026, net sales were $203.2 million, a 4.5% increase over the prior year quarter. Comparable store sales were up 4.1% over the prior year period. Our gross profit margin increased 200 basis points to 62.3% from 60.3%. Excluding the impact of approximately $3.2 million in tariff refunds recognized in the quarter, our gross profit margin was 60.7% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to 60.3% in the prior year quarter.

Further, excluding the impact of LIFO, a $1 million expense in the third quarter of 2026 and a $624,000 expense in the prior year quarter, our adjusted gross profit margin was 61.3% in the third quarter of 2026 and 60.6% in the prior year quarter.

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $6.7 million or 6% to $119 million. As a percentage of sales, these costs approximated 58.6% of sales, up from 57.8% in the prior year's quarter. We experienced an increase in selling expense of $1.8 million, primarily due to higher commission-based compensation and third-party credit costs and an increase in administrative expenses of $4.1 million, primarily from stock-based compensation subject to acceleration recognition, performance-based incentive compensation and increased group insurance costs.

Other income expense in the third quarter of 2026 was $20,000 and interest income was approximately $983,000 in the third quarter of 2026. Income before interest and income taxes increased $2.3 million to $7.6 million. Our tax expense was $2.2 million for the third quarter of 2026, which resulted in an effective tax rate of 26% versus 26.4% in the prior year period.

The primary difference in the effective tax rate and the statutory rate is due to state income taxes and the impact of vesting on stock awards. Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $6.3 million or $0.39 per diluted share on our common stock compared to net income of $4.7 million or $0.28 per share in the comparable quarter last year.

During the third quarter, we recognized approximately $3.2 million in tariff refunds related to our indirect import programs as a reduction in cost of sales. Year-to-date through September 30, 2026, we have received approximately $5.4 million in tariff refunds related to our direct and indirect programs, of which $4.7 million was recorded as a reduction to cost of goods sold, $170,000 was recorded as a reduction to inventory and $67,000 was recorded as interest income and the remainder was rebated to certain supplier partners.

Excluding the impact of the tariff refunds on our income statement, our net income for the quarter was $4 million or $0.25 per diluted share. Now turning to our balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our inventories were $86.7 million, which was down $9.5 million from December 31, 2025, and down $5.7 million versus Q3 of 2025.

At the end of the third quarter, our customer deposits were $46.2 million, which was up $10.7 million from December 31, 2025, and up $2.4 million from Q3 2025. We ended the quarter with $120.3 million of cash and cash equivalents. We have no funded debt on our balance sheet at the end of the third quarter of 2026, and we have credit availability of $100 million under our revolving credit facility.

Looking at some of the cash flow usage, capital expenditures totaled $23 million in the first 9 months of 2026, and we paid out $15.8 million of regular dividends year-to-date. We did not participate in our share repurchase program during the third quarter of 2026. On August 7, 2026, our Board of Directors authorized an additional $15 million of buyback capacity.

We have approximately $16.0 million of remaining authorization under our buyback program. Our earnings release list out several additional forward-looking statements indicating our future expectations of certain financial metrics. I will highlight a few, but please refer to our press release for additional commentary.

Our 2026 guidance includes tariffs currently in effect as of November 4, 2026, but excludes any future tariff refunds that may be received from indirectly sourced products. We are closely monitoring the tariff developments to manage our exposure and minimize the impact on our business.

As a reminder, the following guidance is for calendar year 2026. When we release our Q4 earnings, we will provide 2027 guidelines. We expect our gross margins for 2026 to be between 61.3% and 61.5%, which is an increase in our previous guidance due to the receipt of tariff refunds.

We anticipate gross profit margins will be impacted by our current estimates of product, freight and LIFO expenses. Our fixed and discretionary type SG&A expenses for 2026 are expected to remain in the $307 million to $309 million range. The variable type costs within SG&A for 2026 are expected to be in the range of 19.2% to 19.4%, which is an increase from our prior guidance due to higher delivery and transportation costs associated with higher fuel prices and increased third-party credit costs.

Our planned CapEx for 2026 remains at $34 million. Anticipated new or replacement stores, remodels and expansions account for $27.7 million. Investments in our distribution network are expected to be $3.2 million and investments in our information technology are expected to be approximately $3.1 million. Our anticipated effective tax rate for 2026 remains at 26%.

This projection excludes the impact of vesting of stock awards and any potential new tax legislation. This completes my financial commentary on the third quarter results. Operator, we would like to open the call for questions at this time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Anthony Lebiedzinski from Sidoti & Co.

質疑応答

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Certainly nice to see another quarter of sales and earnings growth here in 3Q. So I know you touched on a little bit as far as trends during the quarter. Were there any notable regional differences that you saw as you progressed from July through September? I'm just curious about that.

Steven Burdette

Not anything is notable, Anthony, that we've seen. I mean it's pretty much across the board, we're seeing the effect. Some are more so than the others, but nothing notable.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got you. And then in terms of the average ticket going up, how much of that you think was due to pricing versus unit volumes or mix? And do you think these average ticket increases are sustainable?

Steven Burdette

I'm still going to say it's probably still driven by price. We did see our units stay fairly flat per ticket overall, but we saw a little decrease in our designer deals on the unit numbers there. So I'm still going to say it's driven by price majority on that.

We do think there's opportunity to continue to maintain that and grow that with our design business as we want to try to grow that from being in that 17% range or so of customers that are participating and driving that upwards to the 25% or so that we think that will certainly will drive more of the average ticket will be a big contributor to that success.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got you. And then, Steve, you also mentioned in your remarks about just all the disruptions with the midterm elections, advertising and marketing spending. Can you perhaps give us some little bit more details as far as how disruptive you think this might have been? I mean October is typically not a seasonally strong month for furniture buying. But I mean, if you could just maybe kind of give us some color whether this was similar to the last election 2 years ago? Was it -- anything else you can add to that, that would be very helpful.

Steven Burdette

Yes. I'm not going to talk about October. So we're talking about Q3 on side of this. What we know so far, and it's still early, you know the political ads take precedence on any TV, and so you can get bumped with what you have. We have -- we saw that in the July 4 a little bit. We haven't gotten all the information for Labor Day yet on what happened there, but we suspect it was even more so or more prevalent during that time period as well.

But we will know that shortly in the next probably 30 to 45 days.

So as far as comparing it to 2024, I think this was very contentious. It was the biggest spend of any midterm ever. I think I heard a number of $12 billion was spent in advertising. I could be wrong, I heard that. So it definitely created -- I think there was a lot, as I talked about, a lot of anxiety, not just in the 5 states that make up 2/3 of our stores, but across the whole footprint. I mean there was anxiety.

You couldn't turn on an ad that you were hearing something -- and that doesn't matter what side of the aisle you're on. There was just a lot of anxiety of what was going to happen. But as I said in my comments, it's over. And there is no questions, and we don't have to worry about it. It's not lingering. We're going to move forward, and I think our customers will as well.

Operator

Our next question is from Cristina Fernández with Telsey Advisory Group.

Cristina Fernandez

I wanted to follow up on this -- the last topic. You mentioned the midterms had an impact on your marketing expense and that it was down year-over-year. With the midterms behind now, do you plan to increase marketing expense in the fourth quarter? Or how are you thinking about using that as a lever to drive sales going forward?

Steven Burdette

Yes, Cristina, we've been pretty consistent with it all year. What we don't know is what didn't run. And that's the part I don't know in September. We get that after the fact and get credits back on that. So I'm covering with you what our expense was and what was planned.

What we are suspecting and what we've seen from July 4, that was more prevalent probably in Labor Day as the ads started ramping up that we were getting pushed out. So that's really kind of us thinking through it. I don't know it yet, but we're expecting that and all indications lead to that. So I can't quantify it.

Going forward, we're going to continue to push and promote. Obviously, we were -- as we look forward, we know the elections were only ramping up in October. That's behind us now. We've got Veterans Day and after Thanksgiving, we got moving into New Year's and after Christmas sales. So we will be back active and very aggressive to push through the remainder of Q4 and then head into 2027.

Cristina Fernandez

And on your prepared remarks, you cited a number of inflationary pressures. As you look ahead, are there any levers you can pull to offset these costs? Like, for example, do you plan to make changes in pricing, perhaps your delivery fees or change your financing offers? How are you looking at offsetting some of these costs to the extent you can?

Steven Burdette

Yes. I mentioned on the credit costs, we're looking to try to offset those by in the off promotional periods and looking at increasing the average ticket and where they can be used. And hopefully, that can lower that. LIFO costs are hitting us, and that's real. That's about material increases that are coming.

From those, we are making selective pricing changes, retail pricing changes, in order for us to maintain our margins and where we're going. And that would apply to also the bunker fuel. I hope the bunker fuel and diesel fuel increases will subside, but we've got to get this war behind us, I believe, before we're ever going to see that. And so that's kind of an unknown as to how long that's going to last at this point.

We are not entertaining right now any increases in delivery fees at this point to our customers as we move forward. So health insurance costs, I mean, those are coming at us and it will continue. Hopefully, we get a better performance going into next year, but that's just about the health of our team members and how well we're taking care of ourselves as we go forward.

Obviously, we're trying to promote that internally and make sure everybody is as healthy as they can be. So -- there's not a lot, as I told you, it's more difficult to leverage this, Cristina, on these costs as we go forward. We've got to produce volume to create the leverage on some of these ones that we're dealing with.

Cristina Fernandez

Yes. No, understood. And then lastly, just kind of big picture on your specific consumer. Up until recently, this consumer more affluent was in good health financially. Do you still feel like that's the case and the behavior you saw in the third quarter was a bit more temporary? Or how do you think this consumer is financially and their propensity to spend as you look at the next, let's say, 6 to 12 months?

Richard Hare

Cristina, just a couple of things on that. From what we're seeing from Synchrony who has the credit statistics on our consumers, about 1/3 of which use Synchrony to finance their product. We continue to see very strong approval rates, above 750 credit scores, almost 90% approval in stores.

So our consumer is holding up well. I just -- my personal opinion is there's some angst about the elections. That's behind us. The market is up today, which tells me the market thinks it's a good thing that all of it is behind us, and we're looking forward to the future.

I also want to just point out one other thing on G&A costs. About $2 million of the G&A cost increase related to accelerated vesting of stock awards, and that's just because certain individuals reach a certain age within the company. So that's more of a one-off. So all the increase is not permanent. At least $2 million of that is temporary and should not repeat itself in the near term.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Tiffany Hinkle for closing comments.

Tiffany Hinkle

Thank you for your participation in today's call. We look forward to talking to you in the future when we release our fourth quarter results. Have a great day, everyone.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.