フェログローブ（GSM）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：1億ドルのコスト削減計画

主要ポイント

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は、総出荷量が前期比3%減の18万3,000トンとなったことから、前期比2%減の3億7,000万ドルとなりました。前年同期（2025年第3四半期）比では19%増加しました。
• 調整後EBITDAはマイナス200万ドルとなり、2026年第2四半期のプラス1,300万ドルから悪化しました。経営陣はエネルギーコストの増加により約1,900万ドルの下押し圧力が生じたとし、この影響を除いた場合の調整後EBITDAは約1,600万ドルになっていたと試算しています。
• フェログローブ（Ferroglobe）は、3,200万ドルの運転資本回収に裏打ちされ、2,600万ドルの営業キャッシュフローと600万ドルのフリーキャッシュフローを創出しました。
• 経営陣は、完全に実施された時点で年間EBITDAを約1億ドル（±15%）押し上げると見込まれるコスト削減プログラムを開始しました。この計画には、5工場の閉鎖、稼働率の60%未満から約80%への引き上げ、および約20%の従業員削減が含まれています。
• 同社は当四半期中にフェロモリブデンの商業出荷を開始し、第4四半期には追加出荷に加え、フェロバナジウムおよびフェロクロムの初の商業出荷を見込んでいます。
• 貿易対策や2027年に見込まれる鋼材需要の伸びが中核市場を下支えする可能性があるものの、エネルギーコストや欧州のフェロシリコン市場の軟調さにより、経営陣は第4四半期も厳しい状況が続くと予想しています。

主要財務データ

事業および業績

金属シリコン

売上高は1億200万ドルでした。出荷量は主に季節的要因により前期比6%減の3万8,000トンとなったものの、2025年第3四半期比では14%増加しました。平均販売単価は3%上昇し、1トン当たり約2,669ドルとなりました。

セグメント調整後EBITDAは第2四半期のマイナス300万ドルからマイナス200万ドルへとわずかに改善しました。北米におけるエネルギーおよび電極価格の上昇により、1トン当たりのコストは3%増加しました。

当四半期中、金属シリコンの市況指標価格は米国で10%、欧州で6%上昇しました。経営陣によると、2027年の契約交渉を継続する中で顧客の関心が高まっているとのことです。

シリコン系合金

出荷量が前期比6%減の5万9,000トンとなったことで、売上高は1億1,700万ドルに減少しました。実現単価は1トン当たり1,973ドルとおおむね横ばいでした。

調整後EBITDAは、スペインでの訴訟関連の利益500万ドルを含んでいた第2四半期のプラス1,500万ドルからマイナス200万ドルへと急減しました。欧州でのエネルギーコスト上昇と固定費吸収率の低下が、減少の大部分を占めました。

経営陣は、採算の合わない価格での欧州向け追加出荷を回避したと説明しました。過剰在庫と高水準の輸入が引き続き市場の圧迫要因となっており、欧州のフェロシリコン指標価格は年初来で16%下落しています。

マンガン系合金

売上高は1億1,400万ドルに増加しました。出荷量は前期比1%増の8万6,000トンとなり、平均販売単価は5%改善して1トン当たり1,330ドルとなりました。

調整後EBITDAは1,100万ドルとなり、第2四半期の1,300万ドルから減少しました。1トン当たりコスト増加の85%を主にスペインでのエネルギーが占めました。

重要原材料および貿易保護

フェログローブは、当初の年末目標を前倒ししてフェロモリブデンの商業出荷を開始しました。また、より広範な市場投入計画を決定する前に、フェロバナジウム、低炭素フェロクロム、フェロボロンの産業スケールでの検証を計画しました。

同社は11月に米国政府向けの重要原材料に関する最終提案書を提出する予定であり、交渉は2027年初頭に開始され、第1四半期末までに完了する見込みです。

欧州では、欧州委員会が9月1日に中国産金属シリコン輸入に対する暫定アンチダンピング調査を開始し、10月23日に輸入登録を命令しました。経営陣は、輸入登録により駆け込み輸入が抑制され、遡及的な対抗措置の適用が可能になると述べています。米国では、オーストラリアとノルウェーが関与する事案の最終決定を受けて、金属シリコン指標価格が10%上昇しました。

業績見通し

• 経営陣は、コスト削減プログラムが完全に実施された場合、年間EBITDAに約1億ドル（±15%）の上乗せ効果をもたらすと予想しています。
• 構造改革は、現在60%未満の稼働率を約80%に引き上げること、ならびに本社および現場部門全体で約20%の人員削減を行うことを目標としています。
• 同社は3,000万〜4,000万ドルの運転資本削減と、将来の設備投資の抑制を目指しています。実施費用は、目標とする運転資本削減額を控除した純額で、18か月間で計4,000万〜6,000万ドルになると見込まれています。
• 経営陣は、第4四半期の運転資本に重大な変化はないとみており、設備投資は第3四半期から大幅に減少すると予想しています。
• エネルギーコストや欧州フェロシリコン市場の軟調さから、第4四半期も厳しい状況が続くと見込まれています。
• フェログローブは、ベネズエラでの事業再開に関連する合意を正式決定するために必要なOFAC（米国財務省外国資産管理局）のライセンス取得を進めています。経営陣はライセンスが近く取得できる可能性があると述べていますが、安定した電力供給の確保が引き続き重要な要件となっています。

リスクおよび注視すべき点

• 特にスペインにおけるエネルギーコストの高騰が第3四半期の調整後EBITDAを約1,900万ドル押し下げており、第4四半期も引き続き課題となると予想されています。
• 欧州のフェロシリコン価格は、過剰在庫と高水準の輸入による下押し圧力が続いています。
• 構造改革には、必要に応じて従業員代表との協議が必要であり、目標とする運転資本削減額を差し引いた純額で4,000万〜6,000万ドルの実施費用が見込まれています。
• ベネズエラでの事業再開は、OFACライセンスの取得と安定した電力供給の確保にかかっています。
• 新しい重要原材料の商業出荷量は、産業スケールでの生産検証が完了するまで不透明なままです。
• 欧州における遡及的なアンチダンピング措置の適用可能性については、まだ決定されていません。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、計画されている5工場の閉鎖プログラムについて、最も競争力の高い拠点に生産を集約し、稼働率を80%に向けて引き上げることを目的としていると述べました。フェログローブは南アフリカのエマラフレニ工場およびポロクワネ工場の休止（モスボール）を発表しましたが、利害関係者との協議が引き続き必要であるため、その他の対象施設の特定は控えました。

ベネズエラに関して経営陣は、迅速な事業再開を支援するための協議を開始したと述べました。事業上の主な問題は電力の信頼性であり、最終的な合意に至るにはOFACライセンスが必須となります。

重要原材料について、フェログローブはフェロモリブデンの生産を再開しており、フェロバナジウム、低炭素フェロクロム、フェロボロンの試験生産を実施中または計画中です。経営陣は、産業スケールでの検証が完了する前に第4四半期や2027年の出荷量見通しを示すのは時期尚早であると述べました。

欧州の貿易対抗措置に関して、経営陣は中国産金属シリコンの輸入登録を行うことで、決定前の駆け込み輸入を防ぎ、関税を遡及して課すという選択肢が生まれると説明しました。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2026 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available at ferroglobe.com.

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

We'll be participating in the Stephens Annual Investment Conference in Nashville on November 17. We hope to see you there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe.

Our third quarter results continued to reflect challenges in our silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segments as a result of predatory import prices and external factors affecting costs. Despite these adverse conditions, we generated positive free cash flow.

Total shipments declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to 183,000 tons as silicon metal and silicon-based alloys volumes declined 6%, partially offset by a 1% increase in manganese-based alloys. As a result, revenue declined 2% from the second quarter to $370 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with positive $13 million in the second quarter. The decline was due to extraordinary energy costs, mainly in Spain, associated with the Middle East conflict and to a lesser degree, regulatory pricing in the ferrosilicon segment. Excluding the $18.5 million impact from high energy prices, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $16 million in the third quarter. Beatriz will provide more detailed comments in her section.

Next slide, please. Since the last call, we have made tangible progress on the following strategic priorities: lowering and rightsizing our cost structure, expanding our critical materials platform, pursuing the restart of Venezuela, and strengthening our core business through trade protection.

Let me start with rightsizing our footprint and cost structure. Last month, we initiated an aggressive cost reduction program to increase our capacity utilization, enhance our operating efficiency and strengthen our competitive position. Once fully implemented, we expect the cost reduction program to enhance our annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million, plus or minus 15%.

Our plans to tackle the difficult business environment and increase profitability include the following. First, we are consolidating our operations to our most cost competitive plants, enabled by our flexible footprint. Our goal is to boost capacity utilization to 80%, up from less than 60% today.

To accomplish this, we plan to close 5 plants around the globe with minimal impact on our sales volumes or our ability to expand into critical materials. We will work through these changes together with our employee representatives as required. Some of these operations might be switched to critical materials.

At the same time, we are restarting Selma to produce ferroalloys. As for the nonstrategic plans, we are exploring the best way to monetize them, whether through outright divestitures or alternative use as data centers.

Second, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead primarily through headcount reductions. Overall, we expect to reduce our corporate and operations workforce by approximately 20% once the process is complete, subject to consultation with employee representatives where required.

These are difficult decisions, but necessary steps to align our cost structure with the current market conditions and position the business for improved profitability. These actions will lower Ferroglobe's fixed cost per ton, target working capital reduction of $30 million, $40 million, and decrease future CapEx, creating more streamlined organization positioned to generate stronger cash flow and EBITDA.

We have already begun this process by announcing the mothballing of our South African plants in Emalahleni and Polokwane due to lack of demand. The upfront cost of implementing this transformation plan is expected to be in the range of $40 million to $60 million, net of targeted working capital reduction over an 18-month period.

Moving to critical materials. Our expansion is progressing ahead of schedule. During the third quarter, we began shipment of ferromolybdenum to commercial customers, well ahead of our original year-end target. This demonstrates our ability to produce critical ferroalloys in Monzon, Spain with minimal capital investment. We expect additional ferromolybdenum shipments in the fourth quarter as well as our first commercial shipments of other critical ferroalloys such as ferrovanadium and ferrochromium.

As part of the critical material expansion, we continue our discussion with the U.S. Department of War. These discussions to build the domestic supply of certain critical materials continue to progress on schedule. Our September 16 summary proposal included magnesium and manganese and 7 additional critical materials, and we expect to present our final proposal this month in November. The negotiations should begin in early 2027 and conclude before the end of the first quarter.

As for Venezuela, we continue to pursue the license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required to finalize any agreements. Concurrently, we have begun initial discussions in Venezuela to prepare for an expedited restart of our operations.

On our effort to protect the business, trade measures continue to gain momentum. On September 1, the European Commission initiated an interim antidumping review into imports of Chinese silicon metal and October 23, the Commission announced the registration of all Chinese silicon metal imports. This simply means that each import will be recorded and monitored in detail for future review.

This decision is important because it indicates how seriously the European Commission takes the matter and allows potential duties to be applied retroactively. The market has already responded with the European Silicon metal index rising 7% since the announcement of this review.

In the United States, the ITC's final determination in the silicon metal case against Australia and Norway was announced on August 3. Subsequently, the U.S. index rose 10% following the announcement.

Finally, Coreshell has made strong progress in the third quarter. They received a $50 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy to build the first U.S. gigafactory dedicated to 100% graphite-free silicon anode batteries. This award comes at a great moment in Coreshell's growth as they have now signed multiple military customers in the drone and autonomous vehicle space. Coreshell continues to work with multiple OEMs to further validate the silicon anode technology on a greater scale.

Next slide, please. I'll update on our segments, starting with silicon metal on Slide 5. We are seeing improvement in the silicon metal segment with index prices up 10% in U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter, reflecting a positive response to trade actions on both sides of the Atlantic. Our realized prices improved 3% over the second quarter.

Our silicon metal volumes declined 6% to 38,000 tons with U.S. sales down 8% and new sales down 3%. The decline was driven mainly by seasonality with volumes up 14% over Q3 2025. Importantly, we are seeing increased customer interest, an encouraging sign as we continue our 2027 contract negotiations.

Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloy volumes remained significantly above last year's level, although they declined 6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter to 59,000 tons. Index prices were down 2% in Europe and 1% in the U.S., while our realized prices were essentially flat.

Our European volumes declined substantially, reflecting our disciplined decision not to pursue incremental volumes at unprofitable prices. Excess inventory and elevated import volumes continue to weigh on price recovery, particularly in the European market where the ferrosilicon index is down 16% year-to-date. The main culprits are Malaysia, Bhutan, Azerbaijan, India and Angola. European Commission's annual review of the ferroalloy safeguards scheduled for later this month can potentially bring meaningful improvement to the alloys market in 2027.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys remain our most consistent segment. Volumes remained strong, increasing 1% to 86,000 tons. While index prices were down approximately 1% in the quarter, our realized prices increased 5%. The market outlook remains positive, supported by firm pricing and healthy volumes.

Looking ahead, both the silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloy segments are expected to benefit from improving steel demand. In its October short-range outlook, the World Steel Association forecast 2027 finished steel demand growth of 3% in Europe and 2% in North America. Manufacturing activity supports this view with September PMI reaching 52.9 in the Eurozone, a 52-month high, and 55.9 in the U.S. Aluminum production is expected to grow by 2% in the U.S. and 3% in Europe.

I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the third quarter income statement. Total third quarter sales declined 2% from the prior quarter to $370 million, driven by a 3% decline in total volumes. Lower volumes in silicon metal and silicon-based alloys were partially offset by higher realized prices in silicon metal and manganese-based alloys. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, sales increased 19%.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with a positive $13 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, second quarter adjusted EBITDA includes a $5 million benefit from litigation in Spain. Higher energy costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by nearly $19 million in the quarter. Excluding these items, the adjusted EBITDA would have been $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 0.6% compared with a positive 3.5% in the second quarter.

Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue was $102 million in the third quarter, a 6% decline in volume, was partially offset by a 3% increase in average selling price to approximately $2,669 per ton, up from $2,592 per ton in the second quarter. Cost per ton increased by 3% due to higher energy and electrode prices in North America.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million, a slight improvement compared with negative $3 million in the prior quarter. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined to $117 million, driven by a 6% sequential decline in volumes to 59,000 tons. Realized prices were essentially flat at $1,973 per ton.

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was negative $2 million, down from positive $15 million in the second quarter, which includes the $5 million litigation benefit in Spain. Volume and price declines explained approximately $2 million of the decline, with the remaining EBITDA decline reflecting higher energy costs and lower fixed cost absorption in Europe.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue increased to $114 million as volume increased 1% to 86,000 tons, and average selling price improved 5% to $1,330 per ton. Higher energy costs primarily in Spain were the main driver of increased cost per ton. Overall, energy accounts for 85% of the cost increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was $26 million, driven by a $32 million release of working capital. This is well ahead of the approximately $50 million release we target for the second half of the year on our last call. We don't expect material changes in working capital in the fourth quarter.

For those less familiar, the PPA mark-to-market of $77 million is related to our energy contracts, which are excluded from adjusted EBITDA due to the volatility and noncash impact. CapEx was $20 million, up from $17 million in the second quarter due to the timing of the actual payments for our charcoal plant in Spain. We expect CapEx to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

Free cash flow was positive $6 million compared with $20 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. We paid our quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share on September 29. Our next dividend of $0.015 per share is scheduled for December 30, payable to shareholders on record as of December 22.

We ended the quarter with approximately $93 million in cash, unchanged from the second quarter. Adjusted gross debt was $135 million and net debt increased slightly to $42 million. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, which gives us the flexibility to execute the cost reduction program and support our critical materials expansion.

At this time, I'll turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call for Q&A, I'd like to share the key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. While our third quarter earnings results are disappointing, we are taking decisive action to improve profitability. The cost reduction program will consolidate production at our most competitive plant, increase capacity utilization to approximately 80%, and streamline the organization. Once fully implemented, we expect to add $100 million to our annual EBITDA, plus or minus 15%.

While we expect the fourth quarter to remain challenging due to energy costs and weak ferrosilicon market in Europe, these actions are within our control and can deliver long-term benefits regardless of market conditions. At the same time, the fundamentals of our core markets are improving. Steel demand is forecast to grow next year, which supports our ferroalloy businesses.

Trade protection is working. Silicon metal index prices rose 10% in the U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter. And the European investigation into Chinese silicon metal is now underway.

Our strategic direction is very clear: build a leading Western critical materials platform. We completed our first shipments in the third quarter and additional shipments are expected in the fourth quarter. We have demonstrated that our existing furnaces can produce these critical materials quickly and with minimal capital investment.

Our discussions on critical materials with the U.S. government continue to advance and Coreshell's $50 million Department of Energy award gives us further confidence in our investment in silicon battery technology.

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

質疑応答

Henry Hearle

This is Henry Hearle on for Nick. I first wanted to ask, are the 5 plant closures view that European demand does not fully recover? Or do they more assume that Venezuela backfills those tons?

Marco Levi

Well, we -- as you know, we have quite a broad asset footprint, and we are looking at different combinations to increase our asset utilization at -- to 80% from an average of 60%. We forecast demand growing better at higher rate in U.S. in the next few years. And as a consequence, we are talking about restarting Venezuela and restarting Selma in the United States.

We have disclosed in my speech the decision on South African plants. We are not going to disclose anything else about the additional assets as we need to engage other stakeholders and employee representatives before disclosing our plan in a more [indiscernible].

Henry Hearle

Got it. Understood, Marco. And then also, at this time, are you able to provide any more details on the status of the Venezuela permit?

Marco Levi

Yes. We should get the license anytime soon. At the same time, we have started our discussions in Venezuela to restart the plant. The main topic is electricity supply and reliable electricity supply. As you know, we can easily ramp up and down our furnaces. We have this flexibility running electrical furnaces, but we need electricity reliability. The license is required to close any kind of negotiation.

Henry Hearle

Understood. And then looking at the critical materials business, how do you expect shipments to ramp from 3Q to 4Q? And how many other materials might be involved in those shipments?

Marco Levi

Yes. Well, in this quarter, we are producing again ferromolybdenum. We re-run productions of ferrovanadium and ferrochrome low carbon. We seem to be able also to run trials on ferroboron.

So for these 4 products, we need validation at industrial scale production, meaning we have produced ferromolybdenum industrially, but not the other 3 products that I mentioned. So it is rather premature to talk about volumes for the quarter and 2027. Our objective is to validate our production capabilities this quarter, and then we will plan for market introduction.

Henry Hearle

Got it. And then last one for me. It looks like that the EU could possibly make the antidumping duties on China retroactive. Could you provide any more color on that or what you're hearing?

Marco Levi

Yes. I mean we have put a lot of pressure because this has been a never-ending saga. I want to remind you that we asked for safeguards on silicon metal and the fact that safeguards were not applied to silicon metal has caused a disaster in terms of results of safeguards for ferrosilicon.

Now we have changed our approach. We are going for antidumping review against China. That interim review was officially started on September 1. And on October 23, EU had announced monitoring of imports. What it means is that the Union is monitoring the imports of silicon metal outside of China via all the 27 EU countries.

And monitoring the import has a couple of effects. One, you prevent stockpiling materials -- exported materials from China before the European Union decide on the new measures. And second, the registration basically allows the commission to eventually decide to apply measures retroactively. So this is a good result. But again, we are not where we want to be.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Sandra, and thank you all. In a nutshell, we are executing on what we can control, and we look forward to updating you on our progress during the next call. Thank you again for your participation, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.