ノーマッド・フーズ 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：2027年のインフレ、コスト削減、第4四半期の価格設定

要点

• ノーマッド・フーズは、主に魚類に関連する第4四半期の追加的なインフレや、2回目の非定常価格引き上げを受けた出荷パターンの不確実性にもかかわらず、2026年の見通しを維持しました。
• 経営陣は、約7%の総インフレ、約3%のコスト削減、そして厳選された価格設定および数量対策を通じて対応する約4%の純インフレという、2027年の前提条件を改めて強調しました。
• 同社は2027年のEBITDA見通しを0%〜2%と再確認し、キャッシュフローの改善、一時的費用の削減、およびレバレッジ解消の計画に変更はないと述べました。
• 第3四半期の一時的費用は400万ユーロ未満でした。また経営陣は、前年同期比のボーナス影響を調整した後の実質的な間接費が減少したと述べました。
• スーパーマーケットの冷凍システムに影響を与えたサイバー攻撃により一時的な混乱が生じましたが、補充注文が初期の影響を十分に相殺しました。経営陣は、ノーマッド・フーズへの純影響は小幅かつわずかにプラスであり、重要ではないと説明しました。
• 欧州のディスカウント小売業者との協議は継続中です。経営陣は協議について一定の手応えを感じていると述べましたが、新たな商業上の進展に関する発表はありませんでした。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の状況

ノーマッド・フーズは、非ワーキング広告・販売促進費を削減する一方で、経営陣が健全な水準と表現する消費者向けのワーキング広告・販促費を維持しています。また、同社はマーケティングの有効性における重要な要素として、競争力のある価格設定を強調しました。

前年同期比のボーナスおよびインセンティブ報酬の影響を除いた実質的な間接費は減少しました。コスト削減策には、本部間接費の削減、地域組織の変更、および発表済みの小規模工場の閉鎖が含まれます。

ディスカウントチャネルにおいて、経営陣は小売業者との協議が続いていると述べました。同社は欧州のディスカウント業者を巨大で成長中のセグメントと捉えていますが、電話会議中に新たな取扱拡大の獲得は発表しませんでした。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は既存の見通しを維持しました。2026年第4四半期のEBITDAは、主に魚類を中心とした追加的なインフレからの圧力を受ける見込みです。

第4四半期の変動の主な要因は、ノーマッド・フーズによる2回目の非定常価格引き上げに対する顧客の反応と、それに伴う出荷のタイミングおよび数量への影響です。また経営陣は、計画に対する上振れ分はインセンティブ報酬、事業強化、および持続的な長期的成長に再投資される可能性があると述べました。

2027年について、同社は引き続き約7%の総インフレと約3%のコスト削減を見込んでおり、純インフレ率は約4%となります。経営陣は、場合によっては価格引き上げを行い、また別の場合には数量増加の機会を追求するなど、選択的に対応する計画です。

リスクと注視すべき分野

• 原材料コストのインフレ：魚類のインフレが第4四半期に特定された主な追加圧力となっています。
• 価格設定の実行：2回目の非定常価格引き上げに対する顧客の反応が、出荷パターンに変動をもたらす可能性があります。
• 小売のサイバーセキュリティ：スーパーマーケットの冷凍システムに対する攻撃により、フランス、ベルギー、その他の欧州市場で冷凍食品の店頭供給が混乱しました。ノーマッド・フーズは自社の業務およびサプライチェーンにおいて、これまでのところサイバーインシデントは発生していないと述べました。
• 再投資：潜在的な上振れ分は、短期的な利益に完全に反映されるのではなく、インセンティブ報酬や長期的な成長施策に振り向けられる可能性があります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

アナリストは、ディスカウントチャネルの拡大、サイバー攻撃関連の小売の混乱、第4四半期の見通し、マーケティング効率、および2027年のコスト見通しに焦点を当てました。

経営陣は、冷凍システムのサイバー攻撃によって当初は店頭供給と売上が減少したものの、その後の補充注文が混乱を相殺したと述べました。全体的な財務的影響は重要ではありませんでした。

費用に関して、経営陣は実質的な間接費の改善の要因をリストラおよびコスト削減策によるものと説明しました。また、販促費（A&P）の削減は消費者の目に触れるマーケティングではなく、非ワーキング支出に集中していることを改めて強調しました。

2027年について、経営陣はアナリストデーで示されたインフレ率、コスト削減、EBITDA、およびキャッシュフローの構成要素に変更はないと述べました。

決算電話会議全文トランスクリプト

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Nomad Foods Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Q&A Session.

[Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jason English, Head of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Jason English

Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to Nomad Foods Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Question-and-Answer Session. We posted the associated press release, prepared remarks and investor presentation on Nomad Foods website at nomadfoods.com. I hope you've all had a chance to review them. I'm Jason English, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, and I'm joined by Dominic Brisby, our CEO; and Ruben Baldew, our CFO.

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about performance that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC and in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language. We'll also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results.

Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures. All adjusted figures have been adjusted primarily for, when applicable, share-based payment expenses and related employer payroll taxes, exceptional items, foreign currency translation charges or gains and hedge ineffectiveness. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here will refer to those adjusted numbers.

With that, operator, let's open the line to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

The first question is from Jon Tanwanteng from CJS Securities.

質疑応答

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Congrats on getting back to the organic growth in the quarter. My first question is, I think you mentioned in your recent Investor Day that you were making significant progress in getting products into the discounters with one win and more in the pipeline. I was wondering if you could update us on that progress and how you're seeing that thrust into these new market segments evolve.

Dominic Brisby

Yes. Thank you very much for the question, and thanks for the congratulations on the results as well. We're always very happy to deliver for our shareholders. So we did talk about getting into discounters. And as you know, discounters is a massive segment in Europe, and it's a heavily growing one. We're still in conversations with them. So there's not that much new to talk about at the moment. But we're reasonably positive in how those discussions go. And as we have new news to report, we'll let you know what's going on there.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Okay. Fair enough. And then just we've seen several reports in the media of cyberattacks on grocery stores in Europe. I think there have been 2 major ones so far. Can you talk about the impact that might be having on your results, your discussions with your customers and if that would be a negative or a positive for you as they restock or if there's going to be a financial issue with your customers?

Dominic Brisby

Yes, definitely. So for those who may not be familiar with the situation, cyberattacks on freezer systems occurred on certain supermarkets in France on October 11 and October 12 and caused disruptions to frozen food availability there. This also happened again earlier this week to numerous smaller retailers, mostly franchises, some of whom have not followed recommended security guidelines. And this occurred in Belgium and it occurred in various other European markets as well.

I think the first thing to say is these incidents are very unfortunate and highlight the importance of resilience across the frozen food chain. Our immediate priority has been to support our customers and support our consumers by leveraging the flexibility of our manufacturing and our supply network to restore product availability. More broadly, we're focused on strengthening supply chain resilience throughout our supply chain. This includes maintaining robust cybersecurity across our own operations, ensuring we have appropriate safeguards, ring-fencing capabilities, response protocols in place and so on. And it's worth noting we haven't experienced any cyber incidents within our own operations or our own supply chain to date.

We're also working very closely with our retail partners and logistics providers and suppliers to support efforts to strengthen resilience across the broader frozen food ecosystem. In terms of absolute business impact on Nomad, the net effect has not been material. So temporary freezer outages have reduced category availability and retail sales in the immediate aftermath of these attacks. But that impact has been more than offset by subsequent replenishment orders as customers have had to restock inventories. So as a result, the overall impact on our business has been modest and slightly positive, but not material.

Operator

The next question is from Scott Marks from Jefferies.

Scott Marks

I wanted to just ask first about the holding the guidance and the implications for Q4 because I think it implies a pretty wide range of outcomes for the quarter. So wondering if you can just walk us through some of the puts and takes as we think about the quarter as well as how to think about magnitude of impact or reversal from the tough prior year compares that you called out in the prerecorded remarks.

Ruben Baldew

Yes. Thank you, Scott. Let me take that question. So we have a range and also the guidance, if you look at quarter 4, there's a negative EBITDA. Now the main driver impacting EBITDA is the additional inflation in quarter 4, which we already alluded to earlier, which is mainly driven by the additional inflation on fish. And despite that, we're actually pleased that we have been able to maintain our EBITDA guidance.

The main driver of the range in the fourth quarter is the customer response to our second off-cycle price increase and the associated variability in our shipment patterns. As you know, we have the inflation coming into quarter 4. As we speak, we are taking the pricing, but there's a variability on the impact, how that could play out on our shipments. In addition, as we consistently communicate, any upside relative to our plan will be thoughtfully reinvested to restore incentive compensation, strengthening the business and also supporting sustainable long-term growth. Now -- and to the range, all of those factors appear to already be reflected in current market expectation. And as a result, we don't see a need to alter our outlook at this point.

Scott Marks

Okay. Understood. And then maybe just moving down, if we think about the operating expenses in the quarter, you held them pretty flat versus last year. And you also noted A&P being down in the year as you pulled back on some of the nonworking media. I'm wondering if you can help us understand some of the puts and takes there because previously, I think you had mentioned feeling comfortable about level of marketing spend, but maybe just shifting where it was spent. So wondering if you could just walk us through maybe both puts and takes on SG&A in addition to the A&P.

Dominic Brisby

Yes. So I'll start on the A&P point. So you remember that historically, Nomad spent a very large chunk of its total A&P on what we call nonworking, so essentially things which consumers don't see. As a result of this, we've been able to make sure that the level of working A&P through the course of this year and indeed in this quarter has remained pretty healthy. But we're not afraid to cut A&P when it's not working, when it's not something that consumers see and it's not something that's been visible.

The other thing that's worth saying, of course, as well is that if pricing is wrong, you can spend as much A&P as you like, and it's not going to have much of an impact. And we put enormous effort during the course of this year to make sure that our prices are competitive in the market, and this is something that we're benefiting from in certain areas. In terms of the SG&A, Ruben, maybe you'd like to handle that.

Ruben Baldew

No, sure, Dominic. So if you look at our indirect, and we've spoken before on the bonus rebuild. So if you completely compare SG&A this quarter versus last quarter, there is a kind of year-on-year impact of bonus and bonus rebuild versus what was done last year. If you correct for that, actually, our indirects are down, and that is a result of the fact that we're driving indirect restructuring. We shared at the Analyst Day and also, I think, in previous quarterly calls that we've taken steps on our central overhead costs. We've taken steps on our local organization. We've spoken about marketing. So those are things we're driving down in terms of savings in the indirect. By the way, then it's beyond savings in indirect. As you might have seen, we've also announced a smaller factory closure. So we're also tackling the cost base, excluding indirects, whilst making sure we don't spend a high amount of nonrecurring. And hopefully, you've also seen our nonrecurring, which was down quite a bit. So we're driving all those things. And underlying, we see a reduction of indirect driven by savings.

Operator

The next question is from Angeline Goh from Deutsche Bank.

Voon Pang Goh

This is Angeline on for Steve. Just a quick question on your '27 outlook. Any updates on your inflation targets or savings targets since we last spoke? Oil has moved a little bit from where it was.

Ruben Baldew

Yes, I can answer that. What you see today, also what we reiterated in our prepared remarks, is that we are reiterating the guidance, which we also gave during our Analyst Day. Within that, the assumptions we've given to you during the Analyst Day are unchanged. So you see inflation of around 7%. We -- that's gross inflation. We're driving savings hard, as I just mentioned, and it's not -- it's the biggest amount, but it's, I think, an example of us being decisive and tackling the cost base of small factory closure. So we're estimating savings to be around 3%. With that, we're looking at a net inflation of 4%. We'll tackle that through pricing. But as I said before, it's not only one-dimensional price discussion. We will be quite surgical. In some cases, we'll go to price. In some cases, we go a bit more on volume if we see a volume opportunity.

So I think the overall construct of our plan hasn't changed also in terms of the EBITDA guidance, which we reconfirm to 0% to 2%, and also in terms of driving cash in terms of lower nonrecurring. You've seen our nonrecurring this quarter was less than EUR 4 million. There was a kind of underlying help, maybe underlying was more like EUR 6.5 million, EUR 7 million. So I think the building blocks we've set out to drive top line growth to drive EBITDA growth in a sustainable manner to drive cash flow growth also by lower nonrecurring and therefore, better quality of earnings and therefore, also deleveraging have not changed versus what we set out around a month ago.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dominic Brisby for closing comments.

Dominic Brisby

Thank you all very much for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Nomad Foods.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.