メルコ・リゾーツ (MLCO) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EBITDA 2億8800万ドル、自社株買いとマカオの見通し

要点

• メルコ・リゾーツ＆エンターテインメント（NASDAQ: MLCO）は、2026年第3四半期のグループ全体の調整後プロパティEBITDAが約2億8,800万ドル、VIPホールド率調整後では2億9,800万ドルになったと発表しました。
• シティ・オブ・ドリームス・マカオにおける不調なVIP勝率（ホールド率）により、プロパティEBITDAが約1,400万ドル押し下げられました。一方、マニラとスリランカでは好調なVIP勝率がそれぞれ約200万ドルのプラス寄与となりました。
• マカオの1日あたりの営業費用はハウス・アドバンテージを含めて約320万ドルに減少、同社の従来の見通し（ガイダンス）を下回りました。
• 2026年9月30日時点の流動性総額は約20億ドルで、これには8億8,700万ドルの現金、現金同等物および拘束性預金が含まれています。
• メルコは7月1日から11月3日までの間に、1億6,000万ドルで約3,310万株のADSを自社株買いしました。2026年の累計買戻し規模は4,710万株のADS（約2億3,600万ドル）に達しました。
• 経営陣はフリー・キャッシュ・フローの最優先事項としてデレバレッジ（負債削減）を維持しました。配当の再開は2027年末頃となる可能性がありますが、その時期は自社株買いの機会にも一部依存します。

主要財務データ

事業および営業業績

マカオ市場では熾烈な競争が続いていますが、経営陣は足元の需要について、永続的な構造変化ではなく「一時的な伸び悩み（ソフト・ポケット）」と表現しました。ローレンス・ホーCEOは、中国の消費低迷やその他の定かでない圧力を理由に挙げ、10月のマカオ市場全体が10%縮小したと述べました。しかし、メルコは8月と9月に営業部隊と顧客獲得戦略の刷新を行ったことで、同月のマカオ市場全体のパフォーマンスを上回りました。

同社は顧客還元策（カスタマー・リインベストメント）を引き締め、利益率を保護するためのガードレールを備えた新たなプレイヤーズクラブを導入しています。経営陣は、需要が低迷し続けたとしても、不経済な販促支出によって市場シェアを追求するつもりはないと強調しました。

シティ・オブ・ドリームス・マニラは、フィリピン経済の減速圧力にもかかわらず前四半期とほぼ同水準となる約3,300万ドルの調整後プロパティEBITDAを創出しました。シティ・オブ・ドリームス・メディテラニアンとメルコのキプロス・サテライト・カジノは、開業以来最高となる四半期EBITDAを記録しました。スリランカは同社が顧客嗜好の分析を続けているため、立ち上げ（ランプアップ）段階にとどまっています。

リブランディングされたREMホテルは追加の150室を備えて全面開業しています。人員の再配置や他部門でのコスト適正化が行われたため、経営陣は費用の増加はわずかにとどまると見込んでいます。

シティ・オブ・ドリームス・マカオでは、改修されたリテールおよび飲食エリアが2026年後半から順次オープンする予定です。大部分は旧正月前に営業を開始する予定で、工事は2027年夏まで続きます。

経営陣によるガイダンス

2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は以下の営業外損益ガイダンスを提示しました。

支払利息のガイダンスには、マカオのカジノコンセッション費用およびキプロスのカジノライセンス料に関連する約600万ドルと、シティ・オブ・ドリームス・マニラに関連する約500万ドルのファイナンス・リース利息が含まれています。

メルコは2026年第4四半期の設備投資額を約9,500万ドルと見込んでおり、これにより通期支出は約3億7,500万ドルとなります。経営陣は2027年の設備投資額を従来のガイダンスを下回る約2億7,500万ドルと予測しています。

リスクと注目領域

経営陣はマカオにおいて、最上位顧客層（ハイローラー）だけでなく複数の顧客セグメントで軟調さが見られると指摘しました。同社はこの減速の主な要因を中国全体の経済・消費動向に関連付けているほか、ワールドカップや海外における課税問題の影響の可能性にも言及しました。

競争の激化は依然として利益率に関する重要なリスクです。経営陣は、業界全体での積極的な顧客還元策（カスタマー・リインベストメント）により、ゲーミング需要の低迷によるEBITDAへの打撃が増幅される可能性があると警告しました。

また、特にシティ・オブ・ドリームス・マカオにおけるVIP勝率の変動も四半期業績に影響を与えました。さらに、マカオ政府指導基金への投資に関する最終的な会計処理については、同社の会計監査人との協議が続いています。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

資本配分：経営陣は、スタジオ・シティの法人構造の統合は現時点での優先事項ではないと述べました。デレバレッジ（負債削減）が引き続き最重要目標ですが、メルコはバリュエーションが現在の水準にとどまる場合、ADSの買戻しを継続する意向です。同社は2027年満期の5.625%シニア社債6億ドルを償還したため、2027年に満期を迎える債務はありません。

負債管理：スタジオ・シティは主にシニア担保信用ファシリティと手元現金を受け皿として、2028年満期の6.5%シニア社債1億6,500万ドルを償還しました。メルコは、この取引と2027年満期社債の償還の双方が支払利息の削減につながったと述べています。

配当再開の時期：経営陣は、早ければ2027年末頃の配当再開を目指す意向を示したものの、自社株買いとの資金競合が続く可能性があるため、時期は依然として不透明です。

マカオへの投資コミットメント：ローレンス・ホー氏は、マカオ政府指導基金への投資が義務的投資要件にカウントされることで、追加のイベント開催やその他の支出の必要性に関する不確実性がある程度解消されると述べました。

利益率の保護：経営陣は規律ある顧客還元策、営業人員の刷新、および営業費用の抑制に注力しています。REMの全面稼働に伴い若干の費用増加が見込まれるものの、純影響を限定的に抑えるため他の部分でのコスト削減を図っています。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited. [Operator Instructions]

Today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Jeanny Kim, Senior Vice President, Group Treasurer of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. On the call are Lawrence Ho, Geoff Davis, Evan Winkler and our Property Presidents in Macau, Manila and Cyprus.

Before we get started, please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Our actual results could differ from our anticipated results. In addition, we may discuss non-GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations of each of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release. Finally, please note that our supplementary earnings slides are posted on our Investor Relations website.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Lawrence Ho.

Yau Ho

Thank you, Jeanny, and thank you all for joining us today. We continue to be confident in the long-term prospects of our business in Macau. We're focused on disciplined execution of our strategy to drive strong returns. Our distinctive product portfolio in Macau reflects the best in luxury and innovation. Coupled with the opening of our newly branded hotel REM and the renovation of our retail space at City of Dreams, we believe we're well positioned to capture the demands of our evolving customer base, supporting long-term growth.

We're also proud that Morpheus at City of Dreams has been awarded 3 Michelin Keys, becoming the first hotel in Macau and 1 of only 4 in Greater China to receive this distinction. This recognition underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional hospitality and guest experiences.

We continue to enhance our product offerings through improvements to City of Dreams retail and food and beverage experiences. Work is underway. We expect to unveil completed areas progressively from the end of this year, with a substantial portion coming on stream before Chinese New Year and construction continuing into the summer of 2027. Once complete, City of Dreams will offer the most interactive retail and dining experience in Macau, one that is truly second to none.

The Macau market remains extremely competitive. We have been increasingly disciplined in allocating resources with a sharper focus on customer acquisition and reinvestment and ensuring every dollar invested strengthens returns. Alongside these efforts, our performance has improved, with our business outperforming the broader Macau market in October.

Turning to the operations outside Macau. In the Philippines, despite broader economic pressures, City of Dreams Manila demonstrated resilience, with adjusted property EBITDA remaining steady at approximately $33 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter. In Cyprus, City of Dreams Mediterranean and our Satellite Casinos continue to show strong growth, recording the highest quarterly EBITDA since the start of operations. In Sri Lanka, we continue to build on our understanding of the market and customer preferences as we ramp up operations.

With that, I turn the call over to Geoff.

Geoffrey Davis

Thank you, Lawrence. Our group-wide adjusted property EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $288 million. Adjusted for VIP hold, our adjusted property EBITDA was approximately $298 million. Unfavorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Macau negatively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $14 million, partially offset by favorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Manila and Sri Lanka, which positively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $2 million at each property.

Total daily OpEx in Macau declined to approximately $3.2 million during the third quarter of 2026, inclusive of House Advantage, and below our prior guidance. While the operating environment remains competitive, we continue to review our operating structure and adjust spending in response to changes in demand and business volumes while maintaining the highest standards of service and product offerings.

Turning to our balance sheet. We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of September 30, 2026, we had total liquidity of approximately $2 billion, including approximately $887 million of cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Melco Resorts, excluding Studio City, the Philippines, Cyprus and Sri Lanka, accounted for approximately $474 million of cash and cash equivalents.

During the quarter, Studio City redeemed $165 million in aggregate principal amount of its 6.5% senior notes due 2028. The redemption was funded principally through a drawdown under Studio City's senior secured credit facility and cash on hand, which reduces interest expense.

In September, Melco Resorts also redeemed $600 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% senior notes due 2027 in full. The redemption was funded through a drawdown under Melco's revolving credit facilities and also resulted in reduced interest expense. We currently do not have any debt maturities in 2027.

From July 1 through November 3, 2026, we repurchased approximately 33.1 million of our ADSs for consideration of approximately $160 million. This brings total repurchases in 2026 to approximately 47.1 million ADSs for aggregate consideration of approximately $236 million.

As we normally do, we'll give you some guidance on non-operating line items for the upcoming fourth quarter of 2026. Total depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $140 million to $145 million. Corporate expense is expected to come in at approximately $20 million to $25 million and consolidated net interest expense is expected to be approximately $115 million to $120 million. This includes finance liability interest of approximately $6 million relating to fees payable in relation to the Macau gaming concession and the Cyprus gaming license and finance lease interest of approximately $5 million relating to City of Dreams Manila.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, back to you for the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from David Bain with Texas Capital Bank.

質疑応答

David Bain

Great. I guess, first, during the quarter, we saw, I would call it, notable volatility in share price dislocation with MSC and recognizing liquidity makes it difficult to be opportunistic, I guess, in the open market, it kind of reopened the debate, I think, around potential consolidation.

Just given your focus on deleveraging and maybe even the upcoming dividend this year, does consolidating MSC corporate structure, does that rank somewhere within the priority list? Or just any kind of color around what kind of conditions could things evolve that direction?

Yau Ho

David, it's Lawrence. Maybe I'll start and Geoff can supplement. I think our corporate priority, as we've stated for the last 2 or 3 years, has been to delever. But recognizing there is a massive dislocation of share prices versus what we believe the fair market value of Melco Resorts is, as Geoff said in his prepared remarks, that we have bought back a lot of shares at Melco. So any sort of Studio City consolidation, that is not a priority at all. But at the same time, we're always open to look at what is the optimum structure.

David Bain

Got it. That makes sense. Okay. And then can we also get your take on the recent Macau government guidance fund? Just given the reinvestment or the investment counts towards the mandatory quotas, does that alleviate maybe uncertainty in terms of non-gaming physical expansion disruption? Is this a better result for you in your requirement? And does it even more broadly have any theoretical impact on 2032 renewals either from a goodwill perspective or structurally?

Yau Ho

Well, I think we think so. We're always happy to support the government in their initiatives. And I think the most important thing for Melco and our fellow competitors in the industry is that this counts towards the stated investment. And so I think if anything, it does remove some of the uncertainties of having to do more events or other things. So all in all, I think it's a good outcome.

Geoffrey Davis

And David, if there was an accounting question in there, there is going to be a difference in how we treat it at MIDL with IFRS versus U.S. GAAP for MLCO. So for MIDL, the accounting will record the investment as an asset, likely an intangible asset, but we're still finalizing that with our auditors. And similarly, at Melco, we're still working with our auditors on the final treatment there. But we do anticipate accounting for it as an asset downstairs as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from Praveen Choudhary with Morgan Stanley.

Praveen Choudhary

Congrats on steady business and grand opening of REM Hotel. I have 2 questions. The first one is financial. Could you tell us if you have a deleveraging target either over the next 12 months or over a medium period? But also do you have a dividend reinstatement target? That's the first question.

The second question is just asking about the current demand environment, especially if you can talk about second half of October, November. There has been some slowdown in the premium segment and then how are you looking at it right now?

Yau Ho

Praveen, maybe I'll take the second question first and let Geoff answer the first one, and Evan can supplement it. But I think we're -- the market is challenging right now. And I think everybody saw that October was down 10%. And let's not forget last year, last October, October 2025, I mean, we had typhoons and then I think Mid-Autumn Festival was stuck in there. So it was already kind of a low base.

So it is -- I think on other calls, we've also listened. I don't think there's one factor. I think the main thing is really the consumption part of the Chinese economy tends to be a bit weak right now. And there could be aftereffects of the World Cup, the overseas tax issues. So I think it's a little bit of a perfect storm.

But I don't think it affects our long-term thesis of the durability of this market. But I think at the same time, we were happy to see that we made some changes over August and September, and those are starting to play out for us in October. But I think maybe Evan can talk about it more.

Evan Winkler

Yes. No, I think, Praveen, as you talk about the market, I think we saw similar to what others have seen, which is there is some softness going into October. I don't think it was only at the high end, although people talk about sort of different points on what the high end is, but we did see some softness going in.

I think, as Lawrence alluded to, our relative positioning because we've been going through some changes in our sales force and other things in the August, September time frame bore some fruit. So we did a little bit better in October from a company standpoint. But from an overall market standpoint, I think as Lawrence said, we've hit a little bit of a soft pocket.

I think some of that is just the general overall China economy coming through. I'm not sure that I would point, and I know others have, acutely only to the high end. It's not just in the sort of top, top players that we're seeing. We are seeing some general softness as you go down, which makes us sort of feel like it's probably a little bit more overall China economy than just the specific tax one that's sort of getting the headlines. But as Lawrence said, I think as we look forward, I don't think we view it as a permanent structural change. I think we view it more as a soft pocket and we're working through it.

Geoffrey Davis

And Praveen, on your first question, as Lawrence said, deleveraging is our #1 priority with our free cash flow. We don't have a specific target to share, but we'd like to be a lot closer to where we were in 2019 versus where we are today.

And on the dividend, perhaps to echo what we said on the second quarter call, we would still aim to recommence the dividend potentially towards the end of next year, but that will be very hard to predict the exact timing given that we will have potentially other opportunities to continue to buy back stock.

We have prioritized buying back stock at these very dislocated levels of valuation. And you can expect us to continue to buy stock if the shares stay at or around these levels. So dividend is still something we would endeavor to do on the horizon, but timing is difficult to pinpoint.

Praveen Choudhary

Those are very clear. Can I have a follow-up question? I wanted to ask about the competitive intensity. First of all, the OpEx number looks good. So clearly, everyone, but also you, are working on your OpEx. But the issue is that now our GGR numbers for the market have turned negative.

When revenue was great, our cost was also up for the industry. And now that GGR is negative, even though we are working on OpEx and reinvestment, I'm worried that EBITDA growth is not visible. I just wanted to understand from your perspective sitting there, what could you do to ensure that your EBITDA is not falling or you can maintain it at this level? What else can you do?

Evan Winkler

Why don't I lead off and Lawrence and Geoff may also comment. Again, I think from where we are as a market and what we're focused on very much so is that as you go into a period of lower demand that you're not trying to chase to unhealthy levels in reinvestment to get the business that's there.

So we actually, as we speak, are launching our new player club tomorrow morning. So we've gone back over the last sort of couple of months in the wake of some changes that we've made in our sales force to make sure that we're taking an appropriate and disciplined approach to how we're looking at reinvestment relative to player performance sort of across the board and trying to make sure that we're putting in guardrails and everything else to make sure that we maintain margins moving forward.

So I think the approach that we're taking and we're sort of signaling to the market is we think the right thing to be doing here is to continue to be disciplined in what we're doing going forward because it's very easy to chase everybody down to the bottom, especially if you're in a market where people feel like they need to grab a little bit of share because revenue is soft.

I think we feel good about where we are and what we're doing, but the market is going to continue to be dynamic. And the market right now continues to be competitive. So what I would tell you is we, with Lawrence's direction, put in place programs that we think are customer-attractive but preserve margin. And we're going to have to see how that plays out over the next month or 2 because obviously, we're going to react to what others do.

But the hope is that others will sort of follow the lead and take a rational approach because, again, as demand softens, you don't want to double the impact by having a circumstance where everyone is throwing money at getting the remaining share and driving down margin disproportionately. So I'd say we're a leader in rationality, but whether or not everyone decides to follow suit or to check themselves into the asylum, we will see over the next month or so.

Operator

Your next question comes from Timothy Chau with Citigroup.

Tak-Hei Chau

I think I was on mute just now. I actually have 2 questions here. The first one is about REM. If I remember correctly, from last quarter's guidance, I think the opening of REM should not have a significant impact on the costing of the overall group. I'm just wondering if this guidance still stands, seeing REM is currently operating normally now.

The second question is about the CapEx guidance. I'm just wondering if there's any change or any color on how we should be looking at the CapEx guidance -- sorry, CapEx by the end of this year and also next year.

Evan Winkler

Sure. So this is Evan. Maybe I'll take REM and then Geoff will do CapEx. I think the guidance that we gave you in the last call is correct in the sense that Tim and the team at COD have worked very hard to try and move bodies around not to increase incremental costs in terms of opening up the additional room count.

We are going to see a tick-up in expenses overall just because it still is an incremental 150 keys, but we're trying to find other places where we can rationalize expense. So I would say it's not a dramatic move up, but there will be a tick-up now that we've got REM fully operational.

Geoffrey Davis

And on the second question on CapEx. So we've been able to bring down CapEx for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027 as compared to prior guidance. So for the fourth quarter of this year, we're looking at about $95 million of CapEx, bringing the total to roughly $375 million. And then for next year, we're looking for total CapEx of around $275 million.

Operator

There are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Jeanny Kim for closing remarks.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you for participating in the conference call today, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.