NRP 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：負債減少で分配金が2.34ドルに増加

主要ポイント

• Natural Resource Partners L.P.は2026年第3四半期に2,700万ドルの純利益、4,400万ドルの営業キャッシュフロー、および4,500万ドルのフリーキャッシュフローを創出しました。
• 同パートナーシップは四半期分配金を普通ユニット当たり2.34ドルへと引き上げ、第2四半期分として8月に支払われた1ユニット当たり0.75ドルの分配金から増加しました。
• NRPは当四半期中に1,300万ドルの負債を返済し、残る1,400万ドルは来月返済予定であると発表しました。
• 鉱業権部門は四半期で4,700万ドルのフリーキャッシュフロー、および直近12か月間で1億8,500万ドルを創出し、引き続きNRPの主要なキャッシュ創出源となっています。
• 経営陣は現在の情勢に基づき、2027年の石炭価格に実質的な変化はないと予想しています。また、ソーダ灰のファンダメンタルズ軟調により、2027年は2026年よりも困難な年になると述べています。
• NRPは、ソーダ灰需要が回復するか、低迷する市場で大幅な供給調整が行われるまで、Sisecam Wyomingからの分配金再開は見込んでいません。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

鉱業権部門

一部の所有地における原料炭価格および販売量の増加、ならびに支払タイミングの要因が、同部門のキャッシュフローの前年同期比増加を後押ししました。これらのプラス要因は、2025年第3四半期に受領したリース契約修正手数料によって一部相殺されました。

2026年第3四半期において、原料炭は石炭ロイヤルティ収入の約70%、および石炭ロイヤルティ販売量の45%を占めました。

経営陣によると、世界的な鉄鋼需要は依然として低迷しており、原料炭価格の上値を抑え続けています。一般炭の市況も、天然ガス価格の安値や発電所での高水準な石炭在庫により引き続き軟調です。さらに、軽油コストの上昇が事業者の利益率を圧迫しています。

ソーダ灰部門

ソーダ灰部門の純利益は、供給過剰な国際市場での販売価格下落と板ガラス需要の減退により、前年同期比200万ドル減少しました。

経営陣は、国際価格の落ち込みは止まったものの、多くの生産者にとって依然として製造コストを下回る水準にあると述べています。国内価格は、契約の更新に伴い国際価格に対するプレミアムが縮小するため、下落すると予想されています。

同社は引き続きSisecam Wyomingを世界で最も低コストなソーダ灰操業拠点の1つと見なしています。業務執行パートナーは、安全で信頼性の高い操業を維持しつつ、コスト削減を追求しています。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣によると、現在の指標では2027年中に石炭価格が大きく変動することは示唆されていませんが、地政学的リスクにより価格が上下いずれの方向にも動く可能性があるとしています。

ソーダ灰に関して、経営陣は市場の需給再バランスには四半期単位ではなく数年単位の時間を要すると予想しています。工場の閉鎖は始まっているものの、供給側の反応は依然として緩やかです。国内契約価格の下落により、2027年は2026年よりも厳しい年になると見込まれています。

今後の分配金は、業績、流動性の要件、ならびにユニット買戻しや機動的な買収を含む資金の代替的な活用方法に基づき、取締役会が四半期ごとに決定します。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 世界的な鉄鋼需要の低迷が原料炭価格の上値を抑えています。
• 天然ガス価格の安値と発電所の高い石炭在庫が一般炭市況の重荷となっています。
• 地政学的リスクと軽油コストの上昇が、商品価格、サプライチェーンコスト、および事業者の利益率に影響を与える可能性があります。
• 世界的なソーダ灰の過剰供給と弱い需要が、引き続き価格を圧迫しています。
• Sisecam Wyomingからの分配金は、需要が回復するか供給の大幅な縮小が見られるまで再開しない見込みです。
• 四半期ごとのフリーキャッシュフローおよび分配金は、期間ごとに大きく変動する可能性があります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

ユニット買戻しの可能性に関する質問に対し、経営陣はNRPの本質的価値の評価額の開示を控えました。

またNRPは、バランスシートのデレバレッジ後も、CO2固定化・貯留、太陽光、地熱、その他の再生可能エネルギー関連の機会に対する取り組み方針に変更はないと述べました。同パートナーシップは、所有地全体でプロジェクトを開発できる借主を引き続き探しています。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners L.P. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Tiffany Sammis, Investor Relations. Tiffany, please go ahead.

Tiffany Sammis

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners third quarter 2026 conference call. Today's call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

Joining me today are Craig Nunez, President and Chief Operating Officer; Chris Zolas, Chief Financial Officer; and Kevin Craig, Executive Vice President.

Some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements reflecting NRP's views about future events. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to materially differ from our forward-looking statements. These risks are discussed in NRP's Form 10-K and other Securities and Exchange Commission filings. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures. Additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our third quarter press release, which can be found on our website.

I would like to remind everyone that we do not intend to discuss the operations or outlook for any particular coal lessee or detailed market fundamentals.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Craig Nunez, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

Craig Nunez

Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning, everyone. NRP generated $45 million of free cash flow in the third quarter of 2026 and $166 million of free cash flow over the last 12 months before the investment in our soda ash business earlier this year. Last quarter, I said that [ barring ] something unforeseen, we intended to raise distribution significantly in November. We are delivering on that. A decade of work to pay down debt and derisk the partnership has brought us to the point where we can pay out free cash flow beyond the unitholder tax liability. We generated $45 million of free cash in the quarter. We paid down $13 million of debt, leaving $32 million or $2.34 per unit available to distribute.

Our free cash flow can move around a lot from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. Our Board will decide on distributions each quarter weighing our results, our liquidity needs and other uses of cash, which could include unit repurchases or opportunistic acquisitions. If the Board decides to retain cash rather than pay it out, we will hold ourselves to the same test as always, more than $1 of intrinsic value per unit for every dollar we keep.

Last quarter, I said our Mineral Rights segment was our most dependable cash generator. It delivered again this quarter, producing $47 million of free cash flow and $185 million over the last 12 months. Spot prices for metallurgical coal bumped up modestly in the quarter before pulling back. Global steel demand remains weak, and that keeps a lid on prices. Similar story with thermal coal. Natural gas is cheap, power plants are sitting on plenty of coal, and we do not see anything on the horizon to change that. The geopolitical backdrop remains bumpy and diesel is up more than 75% this year which raises costs all along the supply chain and squeezes operator margins. For 2027, nothing we are watching points to a material change in coal pricing. If geopolitical conflicts drag on, prices can move in either direction, and I will not pretend to know which.

Now to Soda Ash. The picture is the same as a quarter ago, too much supply, too little demand and no quick fix. Increased natural soda ash exports from China are pushing older synthetic plants to modernize, shutdown or both. Producers are doing what you would expect. Running plants at lower rates, shedding higher-cost capacity, cutting discretionary spending and hunting for efficiencies. International prices have stopped falling, but have settled at levels that are below the cost of production of most producers. As we explained last quarter, domestic prices should move lower as contracts reset and the premium over international prices narrows. That will make 2027 harder than 2026.

Closures are beginning to occur, however, but slowly. We continue to think rebalancing the market will take years, not quarters. Our investment in Sisecam Wyoming is -- holds one of the lowest cost of soda ash operations in the world and low cost is what carries you through a downturn. Our managing partner continues to aggressively pursue cost savings while keeping operations safe and reliable and protecting the plant's competitive position. This cycle may take years to turn, but we are confident in the quality of the asset and its ability to generate competitive returns when the market returns to balance. So to sum it up, Mineral Rights keeps generating strong free cash flow. We have $14 million of debt left to repay next month, and we are finally at the point where we can return the cash this business generates to you, our partners, subject to the Board's quarterly decision.

With that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

Christopher Zolas

Thank you, Craig. In the third quarter of 2026, NRP generated $27 million of net income, $44 million of operating cash flow and $45 million of free cash flow. Of these consolidated amounts, our Mineral Rights segment generated $37 million of net income, $46 million of operating cash flow and $47 million of free cash flow. When compared to the prior year third quarter, our Mineral Rights segment net income decreased $4 million primarily due to increased DD&A expense. Operating cash flow and free cash flow each increased $2 million as compared to the prior year period, primarily due to higher met coal pricing and volumes at certain properties and timing of payments, partially offset by lease amendment fees we received in the third quarter of last year. Regarding our met thermal coal royalty mix, met coal made up approximately 70% of our coal royalty revenues and 45% of our coal royalty sales volumes for the third quarter of 2026.

For our Soda Ash segment, net income for the third quarter decreased $2 million compared to the prior year quarter. This decrease was driven by lower sales prices due to the oversupplied international soda ash market and weakened demand for flat glass. Operating and free cash flow was flat when compared to the prior year period due to not receiving a distribution of third quarters of 2025 and 2026. NRP does not expect distributions from Sisecam Wyoming to resume until the sodas market demand rebounds where there is a significant supply response to this depressed market.

Moving to our corporate and financing results. Net income, operating cash flow and free cash flow for the third quarter of 2026, each improved $1 million as compared to the prior year period. These improvements were due to lower debt resulting in lower interest costs and less cash paid for interest. Regarding our quarterly distributions, in August, we paid the second quarter distribution of $0.75 per common unit. Also during the third quarter of this year, we fully repaid the remaining $13 million balance on our Opco credit facility. As a result, and consistent with our communications throughout the year, the partnership increased the distribution to $2.34 per common unit with respect to the third quarter of 2026.

In our recent earnings release, we have included a reconciliation of this Q3 distribution amount from the operating cash flow we generated in the third quarter.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Robert Lu.

Unknown Attendee

This is Robert Lu. I'm an independent investor in NRP for the last few years. I'm curious, you talked about the potential for share buybacks when you saw that the intrinsic value is below or above the current market price. I'm curious, would you be able to share your thoughts on that and where that might be?

Craig Nunez

No. We will not give you guidance on what we think is the intrinsic value of our units. But thank you for your support.

Unknown Attendee

Yes. Thank you for following through on what you said you do and excited about the news today.

Craig Nunez

You bet. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Balsam with Yellow Gate Capital.

質疑応答

Steven Balsam

I just wanted to say congratulations on reaching this point. It's really rare to see such a long-term decision taken and made and follow through consist really been fantastic [indiscernible] on long-term sale trend feels great to get to this point. I'd like to just one question regarding...

Craig Nunez

Thank you for being with us for a long time and supporting us. We couldn't have done it without all of our partners.

Steven Balsam

You bet. I was hoping maybe you guys could comment a little bit on potential activities that you're looking at, whether it be carbon sequestration or any other sort of actions that your debt that are going on with respect to the various properties.

Craig Nunez

I would tell you that our activities with respect to CO2 sequestration, solar, geothermal, all of the renewable type activities that we look at they're not changing at all as a result of the change in our capital structure and the change in our cash allocation strategy, capital deployment strategy here now that we've paid off our debt or about to pay off all of our debt. There's no changes to that. We're attempting to maximize the acreage that we have, find lessees that are willing to come in and and develop projects on our acreage for all the various types of initiatives. And we've been doing that even before we've reached this point with our -- with respect to our capital structure.

Steven Balsam

Excellent. I love the approach and really happy with the approach taken on it as far. And I realize there's nothing -- no statements made about future distribution like the way it was set out in the financials being that variable distribution paid out of free cash flow feels great. Congratulations, again.

Craig Nunez

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Craig Nunez for closing remarks.

Craig Nunez

Thank you, operator. And again, thank all of you for your support over the years. We're still on the journey. But being able to raise our distribution today and pay out a larger share of our free cash flow now that we have practically delever the entire balance sheet. It was a joint effort, and we couldn't have done it without you. So now we got to look ahead and add value in the next period. So with that, thank you, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.