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アトランタ・ブレーブス・ホールディングス(BATRA)2026年第3四半期決算説明会:売上高は過去最高も、コスト増加がOIBDAを押し下げ

Nov 4, 2026 8:02 PM
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アトランタ・ブレーブス・ホールディングスが発表した2026年第3四半期決算は、観客動員数の増加や複合不動産開発事業の成長により過去最高の売上高を記録しました。一方、選手年俸の上昇やメディア制作費の増加により調整後OIBDAは減少しました。新サービスのBravesVisionは順調に立ち上がり、DTC加入者数で好調を維持しています。財務基盤は安定しており、健全な流動性を確保しています。

AI生成要約

アトランタ・ブレーブス・ホールディングス(NASDAQ: BATRA)が発表した2026年第3四半期決算は、観客動員数の増加やポストシーズン試合、複合不動産開発事業の成長がメディア関連収入の減少を補い、第3四半期として過去最高の売上高を記録しました。一方で、選手総年俸の上昇や「BravesVision」の制作コスト、ポストシーズン関連費用の増加が利益率を押し下げました。

重要なポイント

  • 総売上高は前年同期比4%増の3億2500万ドルとなり、四半期ベースで過去最高を記録しました。内訳は、野球事業収入が2億9600万ドルに増加し、複合不動産開発事業収入が2900万ドルに達しました。
  • 調整後OIBDAは、主にメジャーリーグ選手の年俸上昇、BravesVision関連費用、その他の野球事業運営コストの増加に伴い、前年同期の6700万ドルから4100万ドルへ減少しました。
  • レギュラーシーズンの本拠地1試合あたり平均観客動員数が14%増の約2万7000人に増加したことで、野球イベント収入は1億8900万ドルに拡大しました。
  • メディア関連収入は、BravesVisionにおける売上計上タイミングの変更や一部の全国メディア放映権協定の変更により、前年同期の7900万ドルから7600万ドルへと減少しました。
  • 経営陣は、BravesVisionの年換算売上高が従来の地域放映権契約を上回り、年換算での収益性も旧モデルと同等水準を維持すると見込んでいます。
  • 同社は9月末時点で、1億2150万ドルの現金および現金同等物と、1億8000万ドルの利用可能な借入枠を保有しています。

主要財務データ

指標2026年第3四半期2025年第3四半期変動率および要因
総売上高3億2500万ドル3億1200万ドル4%増。野球イベントおよび複合不動産開発が寄与
野球事業収入2億9600万ドル2億8400万ドルチケット販売、観客動員数、ポストシーズン、リテール売上高の増加
野球イベント収入1億8900万ドル1億7600万ドル契約に基づくチケット価格の値上げ、観客動員の増加、ポストシーズン本拠地2試合の開催
メディア関連収入7600万ドル7900万ドル主に売上計上のタイミングおよび全国メディア放映権の変更に伴い減少
リテールおよびライセンス収入2000万ドル約1600万ドル「City Connect」アパレル需要の好調により約400万ドル増加
その他の野球事業収入1100万ドル1300万ドル当四半期における特別イベント開催数の減少
複合不動産開発事業収入2900万ドル2700万ドル賃貸および駐車場収入の増加により7%増
調整後OIBDA4100万ドル6700万ドル主に野球事業の運営コストおよび販管費の増加に伴い減少
営業利益900万ドル3900万ドル選手総年俸、メディア制作費、ポストシーズン関連費用の増加を反映

事業および業績ハイライト

アトランタは2026年シーズン中、トゥルーイスト・パークで280万枚以上のチケットを販売しました。第3四半期のレギュラーシーズン本拠地1試合あたり平均観客動員数は前年同期比14%増加し、レギュラーシーズン中に25回の全席完売を記録しました。

ブレーブスは2025年から18勝増となる94勝を挙げ、ナショナルリーグ東地区で優勝を果たすとともに、2021年以来となるポストシーズン・シリーズ勝利を収めました。経営陣は、メジャーリーグ選手の総年俸引き上げについて、競争力強化とファンエンゲージメント向上を目的とした意図的な投資であると説明しました。

2026年4月にサービスを開始したBravesVisionは、初年度のシーズンを終了しました。同社によると、地元市場におけるDTC(直接販売型)サブスクリプション加入者数はMLBトップを記録し、同ネットワークの広告収入も過去最高を達成しました。配信モデルには、リニアTV、一部の地上波中継、DTCアクセスが含まれます。

複合不動産開発事業は年間を通じて収益に貢献し続けました。ペナント・パークを含むポートフォリオの入居率は93%でした。「ザ・バッテリー・アトランタ」には9月までに前年同期比約8%増となる800万人以上が来場しました。年初来の複合不動産開発売上高は19%増の8400万ドルに達し、全社売上高の約12%を占めました。

業績見通し(ガイダンス)

経営陣は、BravesVisionの年換算売上高が以前の地域メディア放映権契約を上回り、事業全体の年換算収益性も従来のモデルと同等水準を維持すると見込んでいます。

BravesVisionの費用は第3四半期に1220万ドル、年初来で2650万ドルとなりました。第4四半期にも追加費用が発生する見込みですが、制作費の大部分はレギュラーシーズン中に計上されるため、第3四半期と比較すると相対的に軽微になると予測しています。

また同社は、2026年ポストシーズンの本拠地5試合のうち3試合分の売上高が第4四半期に計上されることにも言及しました。

リスクおよび注目点

  • MLBの労使協定は12月1日に失効します。交渉が依然として流動的であるため、経営陣はロックアウトが発生した場合の影響に関する議論を控えました。
  • 内国歳入法第162条(m)項の税制規定が適用された場合、高額所得選手の給与にかかる損金算入限度額が制限される可能性があります。経営陣は、超党派による法案が提出されており、立法または規制面での救済策が講じられると確信していると述べました。
  • BravesVisionの現金回収は売上計上に対してタイムラグが発生しています。配信契約は2026年4月1日から2027年3月31日までで後払い方式となっており、これに伴うキャッシュフローのタイミングへの影響は2027年第2四半期前半に解消される見込みです。
  • 複合不動産開発における複数のローンが契約上の返済期日を迎えます。同社はリファイナンスの機会を検討中ですが、延長オプションや貸し手側からの支援があるため、返済時期には柔軟に対応できるとしています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

アナリストはBravesVisionのオフシーズンにおける収益性とコンテンツ戦略に注目しました。経営陣は、初期ネットワークが約30日間で立ち上げられたことを明かした上で、オフシーズン期間を十分に活用することで、ファンのエンゲージメント強化、追加プログラムの配信、DTCサブスクリプション事業のさらなる拡大が可能になると述べました。BravesVisionはすでにオフシーズン向けの毎晩のコンテンツ放映を開始しています。

流動性に関して、経営陣は1億2150万ドルの現金残高と1億8000万ドルの未利用リボルビング信用枠を強調しました。年初来のフリーキャッシュフローの低下については、事業自体の年換算での収益構造の変化ではなく、主にBravesVisionの現金回収タイミングに起因するものだと説明しました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文


決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Atlanta Braves Holdings Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Rudd, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Cameron Rudd

Before we begin, we'd like to remind everyone that on today's call, management's prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today.

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, assumptions and beliefs as well as information available to us at this time and speak only as of the date they are made, and management undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events.

During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted OIBDA. The full definition of adjusted OIBDA and the reconciliation to the comparable GAAP financial measures are contained in the Form 10-Q and earnings press release available on the company's website.

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Terry McGuirk, Chairman, President and CEO of Atlanta Braves Holdings.

Terence McGuirk

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Joining me today are Derek Schiller, President and CEO of the Atlanta Braves; Mike Plant, President and CEO of Braves Development Company; and Jill Robinson, our CFO.

I want to start where every conversation about this season should begin, with our fans. A year ago, we came off a 76-win season that was defined by injuries and frustration. We told you then that we expected a very different 2026, and this team certainly delivered. The 2026 Braves won 94 games, an 18-win improvement over last year, and captured the National League East. That is our seventh division title since 2018, and it came in Walt Weiss's first season as our manager. Walt stepped into big shoes. Brian Snitker built a remarkable legacy here, and we're grateful he remains part of our organization in an advisory role. Walt led this club with a steady hand from opening day through the final out.

There were standout performances up and down the roster. Chris Sale turned in one of the best seasons of his career, a 2.16 ERA, 200 strikeouts and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors, remarkable at age 37. Matt Olson anchored the lineup again, and we saw players like Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II have standout seasons. We are excited to learn earlier this week that Matt Olson and Mauricio Dubon won coveted Gold Glove Awards.

We also celebrated moments that went beyond the standings, 5 All-Stars and Andruw Jones' induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame this summer. Most importantly, we brought playoff baseball back to Atlanta. We clinched our postseason berth on September 18 in Houston, then we beat the Phillies in the Wild Card Series, closing it out 6 to 2 in Game 3 in front of a packed Truist Park. Some said it was the loudest game they have ever experienced at Truist.

It was our first postseason series win since 2021. Anyone who was at Truist Park or The Battery that week saw what October baseball means to this city. I won't sugarcoat how it ended. We lost to the Dodgers in the Division Series, and our season ended in Game 4 on October 7. Previously, we swept a 3-game series in L.A. ending on August 27 and felt that this Divisional Series was very winnable. But short playoff series are often decided by a fortunate turn of events, and this was one of those.

But I want to be clear about how I see this season. It was real progress. We went from missing the playoffs to winning the division and a postseason series. Our core is in place, our young players got better and our new manager's first year was a success. Our Minor League system is stocked with future Major League talent. We're pleased with where this organization is headed, and we'll keep working to build on it in 2027.

That progress didn't happen by accident. Coming into this season, we made a deliberate decision to invest in our roster, and our Major League payroll was meaningfully higher as a result. We're proud of what that investment delivered, a division title, a return to the postseason, a ballpark full of fans and millions more watching their team compete and win on BravesVision.

Braves baseball continues to be a summer destination for every baseball family in the Southeast. Building a competitive team remains at the center of our strategy because winning drives fan engagement and strengthens every part of this franchise. We'll continue to balance our investment on the field with a disciplined approach to financial health of the entire organization.

What made this season special on the field also showed up across our business. The results we saw are a clear example of how a winning team, an engaged fan base and the ecosystem we've built around Truist Park and The Battery Atlanta reinforce one another.

To talk more about that, I'll turn it over to Derek.

Derek Schiller

Thank you, Terry. A winning team and a full ballpark go hand-in-hand, and 2026 proved it again. I'll cover a few areas: ticketing and attendance, events at Truist Park and the first season of BravesVision.

This season, we sold more than 2.8 million tickets at Truist Park. In the third quarter alone, average attendance per regular season home game rose 14% year-over-year as the team held a strong playoff position. We also recorded 25 sellouts in the regular season, up from the 17 we reported through July.

The postseason was a highlight. Our 3 Wild Card games sold more than 100,000 tickets across 3 home games here at Truist Park, while our NLDS home games against the Dodgers added over 80,000 more with back-to-back sellouts. Truist Park was as loud as it's ever been, and The Battery was packed before and after every game.

We also kept Truist Park busy beyond baseball. This year included 3 Savannah Bananas games, the first Braves Country Music Fest presented by Truist, which drew more than 100,000 visitors and concerts, including the Eagles in May, Noah Kahan in July and Guns N' Roses in September. These events bring new audiences to the ballpark and add meaningful revenue on nongame days. They also drive year-round visitation across The Battery Atlanta, support our tenants and businesses and help us make the most of our assets. We're already building our 2027 calendar with the Savannah Bananas and several concerts booked alongside a strong home schedule.

Retail had a strong year as well. Our City Connect apparel line has been a standout, and it has driven meaningful growth in retail and licensing revenue this season. In the third quarter, retail and licensing revenue grew 25% year-over-year.

Finally, BravesVision. 2026 was the first season of our own local network, and I'm incredibly proud of how it performed, especially against the regional sports media landscape, where many teams have seen their local media revenue decline significantly. In a very short period of time, we were able to create a network, which we expect will exceed the annualized revenue of our prior local rights arrangement while building a direct relationship with our fans.

Importantly, since we launched this business in April of 2026, the reported results reflect only 2 full quarters of local media-related revenue compared to this time last year, which included the full year under our prior local rights agreement. We replicated the approach that had served us well in the past, a widely distributed linear network, select games over the air and every game available direct-to-consumer. After our first full season on the air, we can confidently say that each piece has delivered.

Distributors continue to value our product even as the industry manages through ongoing linear subscriber declines. Our over-the-air games helped us reach more fans across Braves Country. Our passionate fan base made us league-leading in in-market direct-to-consumer subscribers, and BravesVision delivered record advertising revenue. As we said last quarter, direct-to-consumer subscriptions were running ahead of our expectations through June, and that momentum continued through the end of the season.

We kept adding content throughout the season, including live batting practice and expanded pre- and post-game shows. As previously stated, we expect BravesVision to exceed our prior local media rights revenue. And as Jill will later discuss, we expect to replicate the profitability of our prior business model on an annualized basis.

Also of importance, operating our own network gives us control of the broadcast, a more Braves-centric experience for fans and the flexibility to adapt our business as the media landscape evolves. We believe owning our local media relationship directly is the right long-term model for this franchise. We recently launched offseason content that will air each evening to keep our fans engaged and are already planning unique content for 2027.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Plant

Thank you, Derek. Our mixed-use business had another strong quarter. The Battery Atlanta continues to draw more visitors, increase its sales, improve the tenant mix, and it gives our company a steady source of revenue all year long, not just during the baseball season.

Occupancy remains high at 93% across our entire portfolio, inclusive of Pennant Park, and we continue to see successful tenant turnover and redevelopment opportunities. The growing calendar events at Truist Park also brings new visitors to The Battery on nongame days, which benefits our tenants and makes productive use of the campus throughout the year.

Year-to-date through September, we have welcomed more than 8 million visitors to The Battery, up nearly 8% from the same period last year as our offerings and season continue to attract visitors to a premier destination in the Southeast. Together with our high occupancy portfolio, it gives us a diversified year-round source of revenue that complements our baseball operations.

We're pleased with the momentum in the real estate business, and we see continued opportunity to grow it. I would also like to take the opportunity to address some recent updates to the ongoing discussions surrounding the impending 162(m) tax provision that could have an unintended impact on our ability to fully deduct the salary of our highest paid players. We are aware of the recent legislation introduced and continue to lobby and have had discussions with a number of interested parties, including members and leadership of the House, Senate, Administration and Treasury.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jill.

Jill Robinson

Thanks, Mike. Before I begin, I want to remind everyone that a majority of our revenue is seasonal and is aligned to the baseball season. During the third quarter of 2026, we played 42 regular season and 2 postseason home games compared with 41 regular season home games in the third quarter of 2025.

Our strong on-field performance, which led the team back to the postseason, contributed to record revenue for the quarter, which I'll discuss shortly. It is important to note that the third quarter only included 2 of our 5 total postseason home games, and the revenue from the final 3 postseason home games will appear in our fourth quarter results.

In the third quarter, total revenue was $325 million, up 4% from $312 million in the third quarter of 2025. As a reminder, the company manages its business based on the following reportable segments: baseball and mixed-use development. BravesVision was launched earlier this year, and its results are included within our Baseball segment. Total Baseball revenue was $296 million in the third quarter of 2026, up from $284 million in the third quarter of 2025.

Baseball event revenue increased to $189 million during the third quarter of 2026 compared to $176 million during the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to contractual rate increases on season tickets, increased attendance at regular season home games, favorable single-game ticket sales, 2 postseason home games and 1 additional regular season home game. Average attendance per regular season home game increased 14% in the third quarter to nearly 27,000.

Media-related revenue was $76 million in the third quarter compared with $79 million in the prior year period. As a reminder, this line includes BravesVision as well as national media, radio and other media-related items. The decrease primarily reflects the timing of revenue recognition under BravesVision's linear distribution agreements compared with our previous local broadcasting agreement as well as changes in certain national media rights arrangements that resulted in more digital media rights being commercialized through MLB Advanced Media.

As we said last quarter, BravesVision revenue should be viewed on an annualized basis because revenue recognition under our year-round distribution agreements differs from our previous local broadcasting agreement, which was largely aligned with the MLB season. As Derek mentioned, our year-to-date media-related revenue only includes 2 full quarters of local revenue compared to the similar period last year, which included the full year under our prior local rights agreement. The new business model reports higher gross revenues, offset by the expenses to operate the business as compared to the net results reported under the local rights arrangement.

In our first year of operations, if you were to consider this business on an annualized basis, we expect to replicate the profitability of our prior business model. Total BravesVision expenses were $12.2 million in the third quarter and totaled $26.5 million on a year-to-date basis. While we do anticipate some additional expenses in the fourth quarter, as we have said in the past, the bulk of these expenses are recognized in the regular season, and our fourth quarter expenses should be relatively light compared to the third quarter.

Retail and licensing revenue increased approximately $4 million to $20 million, primarily due to the continued demand for our City Connect apparel, higher league-wide revenue, increased attendance and 2 postseason home games. Other baseball revenue was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior year period, reflecting fewer special events at Truist Park during the quarter. Year-to-date, other baseball revenue increased approximately $6 million, driven by additional events, including a concert and an additional Savannah Bananas game.

Turning to our mixed-use development segment. Revenue was $29 million in the third quarter, up 7% from $27 million in the prior year period. The increase was primarily driven by higher rental income, including increased tenant recoveries and new lease agreements as well as higher parking revenue. Year-to-date, mixed-use development revenue is up 19% to $84 million and represents approximately 12% of the company's total revenue.

Adjusted OIBDA was $41 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared with $67 million in the third quarter of 2025. The change primarily reflects higher baseball operating costs and SG&A expenses, partially offset by higher revenue. Baseball operating costs increased primarily due to higher Major League player salaries, BravesVision production expenses, variable concessions and retail operating expenses and postseason game operating costs. These increases reflect deliberate investments in a roster that returned us to the postseason and in a local media platform we now own and control, and we remain disciplined in balancing those investments with the financial health of the broader organization.

Our operating income was $9 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared with $39 million in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to the revenue and expense factors previously discussed. As of September 30, 2026, the company had $121.5 million of cash and cash equivalents. Substantially all of our cash and cash equivalents are invested in U.S. treasury securities, other government securities or government guaranteed funds, AAA-rated money market funds and other highly rated financial and corporate debt instruments. We also had $180 million of available borrowing capacity under our league-wide credit facility and TeamCo revolver as of September 30, and we remain in compliance with all financial debt covenants.

With respect to our mixed-use development debt, we have several loans approaching their contractual maturities. We are actively monitoring the financing markets and evaluating refinancing opportunities, but we are not compelled to refinance in the current market. We have extension options available that provide us flexibility around the timing of any refinancing, and we continue to have strong support from our lending partners. As we head into 2027, we believe our available liquidity, our balance sheet and the year-round contribution of our mixed-use development business provide us with the resources and flexibility to support our operations and future priorities.

And with that, operator, let's open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Joyce with Seaport Research Partners.

質疑応答

David Joyce

First, I'd like to address the elephant in the room, and then, I'll have a follow-up. What's your view on the CBA at this point, knowing that you're restricted from certain discussions there? But what would the implications be of a lockout? And how would a potential compromise fix things and given there's some recent news on what the league might be offering? And I'll have a follow-up.

Terence McGuirk

David, this is Terry McGuirk. Well, as you know well, the CBA ends on December 1. There have obviously been lots of conversations and discussions between the commissioner's office and the MLBPA. And in fact, you -- what you allude to, the commissioner made another proposal yesterday of a revised cap and floor and delayed implementation into 2028. Given that these discussions are obviously very fluid and ongoing, and as you allude to, I will not be commenting on them, but thank you for the question.

David Joyce

Okay. And then second, on BravesVision, how sustainable do you think the subscriber and advertising revenue would be in the offseason? What do you plan to program on there? And what sort of churn do you expect?

Derek Schiller

David, it's Derek. I will answer this one. Maybe worthwhile just to do a quick review again of our situation. When we had these rights come back to us, what we basically did was put together a strategy and an execution of that strategy that really had us doing all of that in about 30 days' time, so quite remarkable. And I think what you're now seeing as part of the results that we're putting out there is that it was very successful. We were able to stand up and in some ways replicate the approach that a third party previously had in the marketplace.

But the benefit that we had not only is having a direct relationship with our fans, but we're able to do things that perhaps a third party may not be able to do. Direct-to-consumer is a highlight of that. As we talked about, the direct-to-consumer subscription business was league-leading in our case. And we feel very bullish about what that future is. We -- having only 30 days before the season to get things going, we think with more time, we should be even more successful. And it's proof positive of the value and size of the Braves television marketplace.

It's also worth reminding everyone that the distribution agreements really began April 1. So you're seeing 2 quarters of that now. And those distribution agreements are -- in most cases, they're 12-month agreements. So we'll continue those agreements from the '26 season on into the first quarter of the '27 year. And then, those agreements for the next year begin again April of '27. So very bullish about it. It's worked really well for us. We're excited about with more time, what we can do with it and feel very good about our decision-making and the strategy execution of all of that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

I wanted to follow up on that point on BravesVision, which is just to say, how exactly do you anticipate having a full offseason to better plan and resource that product will impact its success next season? What should we expect in terms of how you're thinking about the content evolution next year relative to this year? Just some more detail around that product evolution would be helpful.

And then separately, on the potential tax change, I think last earnings call, you had highlighted that the conversations that you were having were bipartisan, but any potential implications from yesterday's election results on how that process proceeds from here would be helpful?

Derek Schiller

Yes, I'll stay on the BravesVision one for a moment. Look, I think any time you have a massive operation where you're standing it up in just about 30 days' time, you're having to do a lot of acceleration of things and having to make decisions that are in the interest of getting everything set up in time to have our first game on the air, which is exactly what we did. We had, as I said, a very successful launch of that.

I think with more time, we have a greater opportunity to have a deeper relationship with our fans. So what that means on the content side is we'll be pushing additional content out there on BravesVision. We actually, just a few days ago, announced some offseason content just to keep those Braves fans that are looking for a taste of Braves-related programming to get their fix. So every night, you'll be able to see something different on BravesVision, and that will cycle through the rest of that daypart.

But like with more time, I think back to the D2C, which I think is, again, some opportunistic, we're very familiar and comfortable and have a degree of expertise in the subscription business, if you will. When you think about it, a season ticket or a premium seat is really a subscription product and has a lot of analogy to a subscription product that is a direct-to-consumer offering that we have with television. So I think there's some expertise that we already have here in the office in the organization. We'll utilize that and work hard on the business side of things, at the same time making sure that we're looking at the programming and continuing to do great things on the programming side. But again, really proud of the effort of the production team. And I think the fans have responded and said they really like what they see with our bringing of the games and the ancillary content to them.

Mike?

Mike Plant

Yes. I'll address the 162(m) tax issue. And as you just alluded to since our last earnings call, a lot has happened. We continue to have very positive discussions on both sides of the aisle and really in all branches of the government. The -- since that time, a bill was filed, bipartisan bills in both the Senate and the House. We continue through our team's efforts to generate additional sponsors for both those bills, and we're very confident that there is a legislative or regulatory fix because everyone we talk to continues consistently to say the same thing. This was a total unintended consequence of the bill that was presented in 2021. So we have a lot of confidence going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Barton Crockett with Rosenblatt.

Barton Crockett

Okay. Great. I was kind of curious to get your thoughts about what would happen to the league if you succeed, the league succeeds in the kind of cap and floor, something similar in the ballpark of what you're proposing in terms of -- do you think that this would be a situation where there'd be a lot more parity in terms of which teams get into the postseason? I mean, I've run some numbers just recently, and it looks like the top quintile payroll over the last 10 years have made it into the postseason 62% of the time, and the bottom 3 quintiles have been around 25%. Would you expect the dispersion to narrow and the appearances in the postseason to kind of broaden?

Terence McGuirk

Well, this is Terry. I'm going to be a little general in the response, and this is tending more towards no comment. But the commissioner has been on the record of saying that he's seeking competitive balance. And so to whatever end you look at the results of that that's where he's going. I believe that given what we've seen yesterday that -- and what I stated earlier, that these are truly fluid conversations. It makes little sense to comment along the way while they're happening.

Barton Crockett

Okay. All right. And then I wanted to ask a little bit about the balance sheet and the free cash flow, which through the first 9 months has been kind of a burn. Could you talk a little bit about -- do you expect to finish up the year with free cash flow as a positive or negative once we look at the fourth quarter once that's done?

And then looking at kind of your debt levels, how should we think about your comfort and flexibility with those debt levels? I mean, do they just kind of stay here in perpetuity? Do you need to pay down debt? Maybe as a separation between the baseball and the mixed real estate kind of levels of debt. If you could talk about where you think that needs to go, I'd be curious.

Jill Robinson

Sure. Thanks for the question, Barton. First, to address the free cash flow question, our free cash flow has definitely looked different this year than it has in the past. And the biggest change there is the new BravesVision model. As we've said before, under the old local rights fee arrangement, we recognized all the revenue by the end of the season and received all the cash by the end of the season.

Under our new model, the cash comes in after the revenue is recognized. And so at this point, we would have certainly on a year-over-year comparative basis collected less cash than we would have historically. Now, that will all catch up once we cycle through the 12-month period, but it has had a significant impact on free cash flow this year, resulting in more borrowing on some of our revolvers.

As it relates to the revolvers and the liquidity and the debt that we have on the balance sheet, I think the thing to really focus on is the revolver capacity. The other debt that we have both on BDC and on baseball's books is really tied to an asset. So that debt is relatively variable. But the revolvers on the baseball side really contributes a lot to our liquidity position.

As of September 30, we had over $120 million of cash on our balance sheet, and we had $180 million of untapped revolver capacity, although those things clearly provide a high degree of liquidity going into next year and the potential uncertainty we face. But we feel pretty good about those levels where we sit right now looking ahead at our future operations as well.

Barton Crockett

Okay. And just to clarify on the catch-up, the change in the timing, the working capital impact of BravesVision, that will not all catch up by the end of the year. It sounds like that would stretch into next year is what you're saying. So 12 months is maybe 12 months after launch. Or is it by the end of the calendar year? Some clarity there would be great.

Jill Robinson

Yes. The distribution component of BravesVision revenue is a 12-month arrangement. So those contracts began April 1, '26, and end March 31, '27. So -- and they pay in arrears. So that cash on that component of BravesVision will actually catch up, if you will, early in Q2 of 2027.

Operator

We've reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Derek Schiller

Well, once again, we'd like to thank you for joining us for the call. I look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thank you for joining us.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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