アビスタ（AVA）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：業績予想を維持、36億ドルの設備投資計画

主要なポイント

• アヴィスタ・コーポレーション（NYSE: AVA）が発表した2026年第3四半期の連結希薄化後EPSは0.57ドルとなり、2025年第3四半期の0.36ドルから増加しました。非GAAPユーティリティEPSは前年同期の0.37ドルに対し0.38ドルでした。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の非GAAPユーティリティEPS見通し（2.52ドル〜2.72ドル）を再確認し、中間点付近での着地を予想しています。
• アヴィスタ・ユーティリティーズは、2026年に6億1,500万ドルの設備投資、2027年から2031年までに36億ドルのベース設備投資を予定しています。
• 同社は、大規模な発電または送電投資を必要とする新規の大規模データセンター申請を少なくとも12か月間停止しました。現在の設備投資計画にはコンピューティング関連の成長は含まれていません。
• その他の潜在的な商業、製造業、鉱業プロジェクトは、長期的には約85MWの見込み需要負荷に相当します。
• 経営陣は、エネルギー回復メカニズム（ERM）の影響を除くアヴィスタ・ユーティリティーズの長期株主資本利益率（ROE）目標を約9%とし、2025年利益見通しの中間点を基準とした長期利益成長率4%〜6%の目標を維持しています。

主要財務データ

アヴィスタのその他事業における業績改善は、2025年の評価損からの市場評価額の回復を反映したものです。EIPファンドが保有する事業であるERock Inc.が2026年6月に新規株式公開（IPO）を完了し、それに伴う評価額の増加が第3四半期の連結業績に反映されました。

事業および業績の状況

アヴィスタによると、スポケーンの複合山火事による同社施設への重大な影響はありませんでした。また同社は、火災は人為的なものであり、自社施設は関与していないと説明しています。一部の被災地域では、顧客による再建および再接続の工事が複数年にわたる可能性があります。

同社は、大規模な発電または送電投資を必要とする新規の大規模データセンター申請の処理を一時停止しました。経営陣は、州の規制当局や地方自治体が政策および規制の枠組みを策定する間、この停止措置が少なくとも12か月間続くと見込んでいます。

アヴィスタは、将来の大規模データセンター・プロジェクトについて、自らの費用を負担し、既存顧客に有意義な料金負担軽減のメリットを提供し、信頼性を維持または向上させる必要があると述べました。同社は、顧客保護を強化するための料金表（タリフ）やその他の規制・政策メカニズムを検討しています。

データセンター以外でも、アヴィスタは長期的において合計約85MWの見込みとなる商業、製造業、鉱業の需要負荷を評価しています。経営陣は、これらの機会が通常の自律的成長に上乗せされる可能性があると述べています。

アヴィスタはまた、全電源を対象とした提案募集（RFP）を通じて選定されたプロジェクトを進めています。デマンドレスポンス契約により、2030年までの目標である40MWの分散型エネルギーのうち、最大35MWが確保される見通しです。

2027年統合資源計画（IRP）の推奨戦略草案には、ピーク日の需要が以前の予測よりも急速に増加しているため、追加のピーク対応電源が含まれています。アヴィスタは2026年後半または2027年初頭に同計画を提出する予定であり、草案の戦略が維持された場合は、その後数か月以内に全電源RFPを実施する見込みです。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

アヴィスタは2026年の非GAAPユーティリティEPS見通し（2.52ドル〜2.72ドル）を再確認し、利益は中間点付近になると予想しています。この見通しには、2026年第3四半期累計期間に認識されたエネルギー回復メカニズム（ERM）による1株あたり0.09ドルのマイナス影響が含まれています。

経営陣は、ERMの影響を除くアヴィスタ・ユーティリティーズの長期株主資本利益率（ROE）が約9%になると予想しています。この見通しには約60ベーシスポイントの構造的な規制ラグが含まれており、電力供給コストが適切な水準に再設定されることを前提としています。

同社は引き続き、2025年利益見通しの中間点を基準とした4%〜6%の長期利益成長を見込んでいます。

アヴィスタ・ユーティリティーズは2026年の設備投資額を6億1,500万ドルと見込んでおり、そのうち4億9,600万ドルは9月30日までに投資済みです。2027年から2031年までのベース設備投資は36億ドルと計画されており、これには2025年のRFPで選定され2028年に予定されているプロジェクトが含まれます。同計画にコンピューティング関連の成長は含まれていません。

アヴィスタは第3四半期累計で5,800万ドルの普通株式を発行しており、市場状況に応じて2026年にさらに最大1,500万ドルを発行する予定です。2026年には2億3,000万ドルの長期債務を発行済みであり、年内のこれ以上の長期債務発行は予想していません。規制上の繰延額の増加および費用回収の遅れに伴い、経営陣は第4四半期に最大1億ドルの短期融資を受ける計画です。

2027年について、アヴィスタは約2億2,000万ドルの長期債務と最大1億1,000万ドルの普通株式を発行する見込みです。

リスクおよび注視領域

• ワシントン州の一般レートケース（電気料金改定審議）は現在も係属中であり、12月中旬に委員会による決定が行われる見込みです。主な課題には、提案されている4年間の料金改定計画、株主資本利益率（ROE）、資本回収、およびトラッキング（追跡）メカニズムが含まれます。
• 電力供給市場の状況は引き続き予測が困難です。アヴィスタが提案した予測手法が承認された場合でも、今後のERM実績は変動する可能性があります。
• 規制上の繰延および費用回収の遅れにより、短期資金の調達ニーズが増加しています。
• 申請停止期間中、将来のデータセンター需要の規模とタイミングには不透明感が残ります。
• 追加の設備投資機会は、今後の資源計画、RFPの結果、顧客プロジェクト、および送電投資の進展に依存します。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣は、提案した電力供給コスト算出手法が承認されれば、現在の0.09ドルのERMによる押し下げ要因をほぼ解消できる可能性があるものの、実際の結果は引き続き電力市場の状況やその他の要因に左右されると述べました。

追加の設備投資の資金調達について、アヴィスタは資金調達構成が負債50%、自己資本50%に近くなる可能性が高いと示しました。他の投資からの現金収入により、自己資本調達の必要額が減少する可能性があります。

ノース・プレインズ・コネクター・プロジェクトについて、経営陣は最終合意に向けた進展の時期を、2026年末ではなく2027年前半と見込んでいます。プロジェクト全体の規模は約60億ドルと試算されており、アヴィスタの潜在的な出資比率は約10%となります。

経営陣は、長期利益成長目標（4%〜6%）の上限を達成するには、追加の投資機会が具現化する必要がある可能性が高いと述べました。これには地域送電プロジェクト、見込まれる商業・鉱業需要負荷、次回のIRP関連RFPで選定される電源、およびノース・プレインズ・コネクターが含まれる可能性があります。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Avista Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note, this call may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Stacey Walters, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Stacey Wenz

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Avista's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings and third quarter Form 10-Q were released premarket this morning. You can find both documents in this presentation on our website. Joining me today are Avista Corp, President and CEO, Heather Rosentrater; and Senior Vice President, CFO, Treasurer and Chief Strategy Officer, Kevin Christie.

We will make forward-looking statements during this call. These involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change. Various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations we discuss in today's call. Please refer to our Form 10-K for 2025 and our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 for a full discussion of these risk factors. Both are available on our website. On this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP utility earnings. Our third quarter earnings presentation is posted on our website and includes definitions and reconciliations for non-GAAP disclosures.

Our non-GAAP utility earnings are comprised of results from our Avista Utilities and AEL&P segments. The investment gains and losses that have historically made up the majority of our nonregulated business earnings can be significant but they are difficult to predict and outside management's control. Non-GAAP utility earnings facilitate meaningful evaluation of our operating performance across periods and reflects management's core utility focus. We believe it is important to discuss these utility results in addition to our GAAP results.

Let's begin this morning with a recap of the financial results presented in today's press release. Our consolidated earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $2.11 per diluted share compared to $1.51 for the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our consolidated third quarter 2026 earnings were $0.57 per diluted share compared to $0.36 in the third quarter of 2025. Our non-GAAP utility earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $1.76 per diluted share, compared to $1.67 per diluted share in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our third quarter 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings were $0.38 per diluted share compared to $0.37 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Heather.

Heather Rosentrater

Thank you, Stacey. I first want to provide a follow-up to our second quarter earnings call where we discuss the devastating Spokane complex wildfires our communities experienced in August. Although it is clear that recovery will be a long road, I am happy to share that our community has experienced an incredible amount of support and that our community itself has shown up in a wide variety of ways to help those impacted. Our hearts continue to be with those who are starting that long road to recovery.

And with the third quarter now complete and with a welcome transition to fall, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made advancing the priorities that support reliable service for customers and sustainable long-term value. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, we continue to strengthen reliability and resilience, through grid hardening, wildfire preparedness and enhanced outage response capabilities. We also advanced resource planning and clean energy solutions, including progress on our 2027 Integrated Resource Plan. Through strong strategic execution and performance on Avista Utilities through the first 3 quarters of the year, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for the remainder of the year. Given that the Spokane complex wildfires were still active during our second quarter earnings call, we didn't have a full understanding of the overall impact to our facilities at that time. While the overall community impact has been devastating, ultimately, the impact of our facilities was not material. We also understand that each of these fires was human caused, and we are confident that our facilities were not involved.

As I mentioned, for the neighborhoods affected, recovery and rebuilding will be a lengthy process, and some of our own infrastructure can't be replaced until rebuilding begins. We anticipate that in some cases, customer rebuilding efforts could take multiple years, and we stand ready to reconnect customers when it's possible to do so. Throughout recovery, our focus will remain where it always is. Providing safe, reliable and affordable service to meet customers' needs when they arise. Affordability continues to be a top priority at Avista. Understanding the financial pressures our customers face is fundamental to developing effective strategies to provide assistance where it's needed most. With enhanced data, we have better insights to guide resource allocation as well as direct the programs we support and future investments across our service territory.

As we look ahead to a changing energy landscape, this focus on affordability better enables us to meet customers' needs today and prepare to serve them in the future. We appreciate that identifying ways to support customer affordability is a shared priority among our investors, our customers and ourselves. It is important to note that one of our key strategies to support customer affordability is responsible growth, and to support long-term responsible growth. After listening to customer and community feedback and to allow time for us to participate in a broader coordinated planning effort, we announced in September that we have paused processing new large data center applications that require significant new generation or transmission investments. This pause respects the moratorium in place in several local jurisdictions including the City of Spokane and Spokane County, and the proceeding at the Washington Commission.

We expect the pause to last at least 12 months of state regulators and local government's advanced policy and regulatory frameworks. This is not the withdrawal from potential growth opportunities. As I shared, it is one of our main strategies to support affordability. We remain engaged with regulators, policymakers, local jurisdictions and other stakeholders, even as we strengthen our own governance, customer qualification and planning processes to support informed investment decision making into the future. As we take the time to strengthen these areas, we remain committed to protecting existing customers and maintaining safe, reliable service. Even after the pause, we won't move forward with the new large data center customer unless we are confident they will cover their own costs. And in addition to covering their own costs, that they will make significant contributions to support affordability for our existing customers. And we won't move forward with the new large load customer unless we're confident that our customers' reliability will be maintained or enhanced.

Any future projects must meet regulatory and public interest requirements while supporting responsible growth that benefits our communities over the long run. In order to strengthen assurances related to these customer protection commitments, we are exploring regulatory mechanisms and other policy options that can provide existing customers with more confidence that they won't be burdened with costs associated with serving potential new large data centers. Although we have paused processing new large data center request that require significant new generation of transmission investments, we are fortunate to have other growth opportunities associated with customers evaluating expansion, representing commercial, manufacturing and mining sectors. Each of these opportunities has a different time line and taken together over the long term, prospective load associated with these opportunities would be approximately 85 megawatts.

We are grateful to be part of these activities that strengthen the local economy and existing customer affordability, and which could be additive to our normal organic growth. As we plan for the future, we remain focused on reliable, affordable energy that meets customer needs and supports our clean energy goals. We are moving forward with the projects selected to advance through our all-source request for proposal or RFP, including demand response agreements expected to provide up to 35 megawatts toward our 40-megawatt distributed energy goal by 2030, along with key renewable energy projects. Work began this year on our next Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP. We expect to file the 2027 IRP late this year or early next year. As our peak day resource needs continue to outpace earlier predictions, the draft preferred resource strategy includes additional peaking resources. We expect another RFP to occur soon after the filing of our 2027 IRP.

Together, this progress on our operational priorities and effective cost management reinforce our confidence. We remain focused on executing the priorities that support reliable and affordable service for customers, constructive long-term growth and sound financial performance. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for additional discussion of our financial results.

Kevin Christie

Thanks, Heather. We continue to execute well across our business through the third quarter with a focus on delivering results at the utility and managing our costs. Our utility earnings in 2026 reflects the benefits of our cost discipline and improved cost recovery. We remain on track as we move into the final quarter of the year. At our other businesses, net income was $29 million in the first 3 quarters of 2026, compared to a loss of $13 million in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Market values have recovered from the valuation losses experienced in 2025. In 2026 -- in June of 2026, one of the businesses in an EIP fund, ERock Inc., conducted an initial public offering.

Our third quarter consolidated results reflect the associated increase in valuation. Among our initiatives, regulatory outcomes are key to our progress. For our 2026 Washington general rate case, we appreciate the party's engagement and constructive hearings in September. Final briefs have been filed and we expect the commission to issue a decision in mid-December. As we look ahead, we anticipate filing our next general rate cases in Idaho in the first quarter of 2027. Our next filing in Oregon will take place under the state's new multiyear rate plan legislation and is slated for the fall in 2027. In accordance with Oregon Commission rules, we will file a 5-year rate plan. We continue to invest in our utility infrastructure to support customers. We expect capital expenditures at Avista Utilities of $615 million in 2026. Through September 30, we have invested $496 million in our capital projects this year.

For 2027 through 2031, we expect base capital expenditures of $3.6 billion. This includes the projects selected from our 2025 RFP expected in 2028. We continue to evaluate incremental capital investment opportunities that support serving our customers safely and reliability, including addressing the growing peak day resource needs Heather mentioned. Given the pause we have taken in both our existing MOU with the data center developer and in processing any large data center applications, we do not include any compute related growth in our capital plan at this time. Turning to liquidity. We issued $58 million of common stock in the first 3 quarters of the year. Subject to market conditions, we expect to issue up to $15 million of additional common stock in 2026. We issued $230 million of long-term debt in '26, and we do not expect further issuances of long-term debt this year.

Due to increased regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery, we plan to obtain a short-term loan of up to $100 million during the fourth quarter. In 2027, we expect to issue approximately $220 million of long-term debt and up to $110 million of common stock. We are affirming our non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for '26. We expect our earnings to be in line with the midpoint. Our guidance includes an expected negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism, or ERM of $0.09 in the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band, which we have recognized in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our expected long-term return on equity at Avista Utilities is approximately 9% excluding any impact from the ERM. This reflects expected structural lag of 0.6%. Over the long term, we continue to expect that our earnings will grow 4% to 6% and from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance.

Throughout 2026, we kept our focus on delivering results at the utility, and that focus won't shift as we look to the remainder of the fourth quarter and on into 2027. We remain committed to financial strength, making smart investments in our infrastructure that deliver long-term value to both the communities we serve as well as our shareholders. Now we'd be happy to answer your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo Securities.

質疑応答

Whitney Mutalemwa

This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar. So on the power cost, so staff was constructive on your new forecasting method and on updating the baseline every year, if the order adapts that, how much of that roughly $0.09 of power cost drag in this year's guidance should likely go away in '27?

Kevin Christie

Well, it's certainly difficult to predict what might happen in power supply markets as we look forward. And if we were able to see a commission order supporting our power supply costs as filed then we would see largely an elimination of that $0.09. Now again, there are a number of variables that could come into play as we look forward, but the intent would be to get the ERM back to closer to 0, certainly within the dead band.

Whitney Mutalemwa

Of course. And then just another one. So obviously, this update flags incremental capital for growing peak day resource needs with the RFP projects moving forward and the '27 resource plan underway. Could you just give us an overview of what we can expect and timing of that opportunity?

Kevin Christie

Are you asking particularly around the '27 IRP?

Whitney Mutalemwa

Yes.

Kevin Christie

So with the '27 IRP, it's important to note that it's in draft form at this point in time. We'd expect to file the final version towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. And then what would happen, and assuming that the current draft preferred resource plan moves forward into that final filed copy, we would then expect to need incremental resources on a peak day basis, and we would go out within the next few months after that with an RFP, all-source RFP to help bring on those peak day resources.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

Michael Lonegan

So you touched on the ERM, but just more broadly in the Washington rate case, you concluded post-hearing briefs. We're coming up on a final decision next month. I know there's some disagreement on the multiyear rate plan. Just wondering if broadly, you could touch upon some of the key debates and how you're feeling about them supporting your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes, thanks for the question. We have had, I would say, a very constructive process as we worked with the parties throughout the case. And I'm proud of what our [ team ] has done for putting forth a high-quality case, a case that supports what we need to support our customers overall. And certainly, there are issues. You highlight one of them, the back and forth there between the 4-year and perhaps a 2-year was a pretty significant one, but not surprising at all given that this is the first 4-year that's been filed under the multiyear legislation. And as we all know, when you move into something that's new and different, there are different perspectives that come forward.

And so we appreciate how the parties have looked at it and are a little uneasy about the 4-year nature of this case. We would point out years 3 and 4, although I don't want to diminish the importance from an affordability perspective, years 3 and 4 are relatively modest. And given the preponderance of evidence that we put forth, we think we've given the commission an opportunity to prove that for you. The other issues that come up are pretty normal things in our rate cases, ROE and there's a lot of attention on ROE right now. We have given, I think, through our expert witnesses and the need from a risk perspective, the commission an opportunity to approve what we put forth there and we'll see how that shakes out.

And the rest of it is generally around capital recovery. We've got a good track record in the past around what's called provisional capital, but that got a fair amount of attention. And then we had some tracking mechanisms either existing or a new tracking mechanism that had attention as well. So those were all discussed in the hearing, and we briefed on those. And then fortunately, in the next 6 weeks or so, we'll hear from the commission.

Michael Lonegan

And then you talked about potential incremental CapEx. Just wondering how we should think about the mix of debt and equity financing. I think in the past, you talked about 50-50. I know you're doing a little less equity this year than planned and you issued '27. Do you have an FFO to debt target over the course of your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes. We currently want to of course, stay at the rating that we're at with the rating agencies. And so we have, as we look to our forecast, the ability to support that comfortably. And so that isn't something barring, something unforeseen that we're tremendously worried about. When it comes to expected equity issuances on a go-forward basis, when we indicate that we have incremental capital expenditure opportunities, it's likely near 50-50. But I do want to highlight that with some of our other investments, as they might return proceeds back in the form of cash, that could lighten the equity needs that we have. And that's why we typically communicate an up-to number. for you so you can have something to model at what might be the high end.

Michael Lonegan

And then lastly for me, on the North Plains Connector project, I know it likely falls outside your 5-year plan. I think a number of months ago, you signed an MOU. Just wondering when you're expecting a definitive agreement there and then also the size of your CapEx opportunity on the potential 10% stake.

Kevin Christie

Yes, that one continues to move out a bit. I think we would -- we initially had hoped by the end of this year. I think it's likely first half of next year at this point in time as we work with all the partners. It's always a little bit more complex when you have as many potential owners as we have. But we're confident that we can find a way to move forward with everyone and then midyear give you an update, hopefully, on that. And the overall capital for the build-out would be about $6 billion, and we would be roughly 10%.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Rold with Bank of America.

Matthew David Rold

Question on the Washington rate case. Once the new rates are in, how close do you expect your authorized return in 2027? Is lag still meaningful? Or does this mostly close the gap?

Kevin Christie

Yes. As we've mentioned in the past, we would expect, once we have a constructive rate case outcome in Washington, we have the Idaho case and the Oregon cases filed, and we get on the proper cadence there, and we continue to manage our costs importantly that we would expect a long-term return on equity of 9%. And that -- what that builds in is roughly 60 basis points of structural lag. Those are the costs that we're unable to recover through rates for various reasons. So 9% is our run rate as we look forward. And it also -- that also assumes that we're at the midpoint from an ERM perspective, meaning within the dead band and we have reset power supply costs at an appropriate level.

Matthew David Rold

And with rate base growing a little over 7%, what would it take to get you guys to the top end of your 4% to 6% growth range? What are the biggest factors holding back today?

Kevin Christie

Well, I think what we're going to need to see is some of those or most of those incremental investment opportunities that Heather alluded to and that we've mentioned in the past. We do see transmission investment potential out there in our region, both within and without outside of our service territory. We have incremental customer growth that we're seeing, and we hope to bring that to fruition.

Important to point out that as Heather mentioned, if we were able to bring those on, it's a handful or more of , commercial and mining loads that taken in total, again, if we were able to bring them all on, would raise our average day load by almost 10%. So that's an important investment if we're able to bring those over the finish line. And then on top of that, we need to see how both the RFP coming out of the next IRP shakes out and then thinking about that North Plains connector that we mentioned already.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Hark with Mizuho.

Chris Hark

I just had a question on the data center pause in Washington. Just any protections that would be required? Just any color you could give us on that? And then how large is that data center opportunity sitting behind the pause?

Heather Rosentrater

So related to the pause. We have our commitments, but we recognize that our customers may be looking for something stronger than our verbal commitments. I mean, we have been very clear and consistent on those commitments that any -- we wouldn't move forward unless it would any data center would cover their own costs and provide meaningful additional support for existing customers from an affordability perspective.

And we are -- so to help with those assurances, we are exploring whether having some kind of tariff at the state level or just engaging in policy discussions at the state level as well as those could provide additional assurances for our customers. Related to the level of request, that will likely evolve a lot over the next 12 months. So I think it's probably -- it's challenging to say right now where that might land at the end of 12 months, but we'll look to update as we get closer to that -- to the end of that pause.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Stacey Walters for closing remarks.

Stacey Wenz

Thank you all for joining us and for your interest in Avista. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.