グリーンライト・キャピタル・リ (GLRE) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：コンバインド・ラシオは90.5%に到達

主なポイント

• グリーンライト・キャピタル・リ（NASDAQ: GLRE）が発表した2026年第3四半期の純利益は320万ドル、希薄化後1株あたり利益は0.10ドルとなりました。年初からの累計純利益は940万ドル、希薄化後1株あたり利益は0.28ドルに達しました。
• 保険引受利益は1,460万ドルで、コンバインド・レシオは90.5%となりました。この実績は、底堅い基礎的収益性、新たな自然災害や大口損失の発生がなかったこと、および中東での特定の事象に関連する準備金が600万ドル削減されたことを反映しています。
• オープン・マーケット事業は引受利益の貢献が引き続き大きく、コンバインド・レシオは87.9%、保険引受利益は1,520万ドルを記録しました。市場環境の軟化に対応したため、正味収入保険料は19%減の1億1,420万ドルに減少しました。
• イノベーションズ事業の概算総収入保険料は前年同期比46%増の4,300万ドルとなり、正味経過保険料は34%増の2,810万ドルに増加しました。同事業のコンバインド・レシオは、前年度以前の支払準備金の悪化（7.6ポイント）を含め、98.2%に上昇しました。
• ソラスグラス（Solasglas）ポートフォリオの当四半期の投資リターンはマイナス3.3%となりましたが、1,050万ドルのその他の投資収益により一部相殺されました。ソラスグラスの10月のリターンは2.3%となり、2026年年初からの累計リターンは横ばいとなりました。
• GLREは2026年年初から10月までに、3,050万ドルで発行済株式の5.4%を自社株買いしました。同社の承認済み自社株買い計画の残高は2,480万ドルとなっています。

主要財務データ

事業・営業業績

オープン・マーケット

オープン・マーケット部門は、保険引受利益1,520万ドルおよび投資収益430万ドルを含む税引前利益1,950万ドルを計上しました。同セグメントのコンバインド・レシオは、前年同期の84.5%に対し87.9%となりました。

正味収入保険料は19%減の1億1,420万ドルとなり、正味経過保険料は13%減少しました。経営陣はこの減少について、特殊保険（スペシャルティ）および財産比例再保険契約の保険料見積額の低下と、非更新の賠償責任保険事業からのエクスポージャー削減によるものと説明しています。保険料率が軟化する中、GLREがサイクルに対する規律を維持したことで、オープン・マーケット部門の総収入保険料は10.4%減少しました。

損害率は、前年度以前の支払準備金の好転および中東紛争に関連する準備金の取り崩しに支えられ、1.9ポイント改善しました。これは特殊保険事業における小口損害率（アトリショナル・ロス・レシオ）の上昇により一部相殺されました。獲得費用率は主に変動手数料の調整により4.1ポイント上昇し、事業費率は1.1ポイント上昇して4.9%となりました。

イノベーションズ

イノベーションズ部門は、保険引受利益50万ドルと投資収益600万ドルを含み、その他の費用60万ドルで一部相殺された結果、580万ドルの税引前利益を計上しました。

新規ビジネスの獲得や既存のマルチラインおよび金融ライン条約からのエクスポージャー拡大に牽引され、総収入保険料は46%増の4,300万ドルとなりました。すべての事業ラインが拡大したため、正味経過保険料は34%増の2,810万ドルに増加しました。

コンバインド・レシオは96.8%から98.2%に上昇しました。損害率は主に前年度以前の支払準備金悪化（7.6ポイント）が響き、13.5ポイント上昇しました。獲得費用率は変動手数料の調整により10.1ポイント改善し、事業費率は保険料の伸びが経費の伸びを上回ったため2ポイント改善しました。

GLREはヒッポ・ホールディングス（Hippo Holdings）との戦略的パートナーシップも発表しました。ヒッポはイノベーションズ部門とともに初期段階のMGA（総代理店）投資に共同投資する可能性があり、スピネーカー・インシュアランス（Spinnaker Insurance Company）は要件を満たす共同投資プログラムにおけるGLREの推奨米認可フロンティング保険会社として機能します。また、ロイズはシンジケート3456のフルシンジケートへの移行を承認しました。

投資ポートフォリオと資本管理

ソラスグラス（Solasglas）ポートフォリオは第3四半期に3.3%下落しました。最大の押し下げ要因となったのはSOFR先物のマクロポジションであり、これは米国の短期金利が市場予想よりも低下するか、上昇幅が小さくなるとの見通しを反映したものでした。GLREはリスク管理のために同ポジションを縮小し、残りのエクスポージャーは来年夏まで継続します。

グリーン・ブリック・パートナーズ（Green Brick Partners）とブライトハウス・ファイナンシャル（Brighthouse Financial）も主な押し下げ要因となりました。プラスの貢献となったのは、AI関連企業や住宅建設会社に対するショートポジション、ならびにDHTホールディングス（DHT Holdings）のロングポジションでした。新たなロングポジションには、センチュリー・アルミニウム（Century Aluminum）、ADIグローバル・ディストリビューション（ADI Global Distribution）、キャナルプラス（Canal+）が含まれます。

当四半期末時点の純ポートフォリオ・エクスポージャーは32%で、第2四半期末の33%から低下し、10月末時点では約28%となりました。

GLREは第3四半期中に800万ドルで50万5,000株を買い戻し、10月にはさらに330万ドルで22万株を買い戻しました。経営陣は、既存の枠組みに基づき機動的に自社株買いを継続すると述べています。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は再保険市場の軟化が続いているとしながらも、オープン・マーケット事業にとって料率と条件は引き続き魅力的であると考えています。同社は、1月1日の改定サイクルにおいて引受規律を維持しつつ、2027年に向けて収益性の高い新たな機会が期待できると見ています。

イノベーションズ事業について、経営陣は安定した価格設定のもとで継続的な成長を見込んでいます。また、ヒッポとのパートナーシップやシンジケート3456のフル・ロイズ・シンジケートへの移行などの取り組みに支えられ、規模の拡大に伴い同セグメントの事業費率が低下すると予想しています。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 進行中の中東紛争には不透明感が残っています。GLREは特定の事象に関して個別支払準備金（ケース・リザーブ）を600万ドル削減したものの、既発生未報告（IBNR）準備金は維持しました。
• 第3四半期における前年度以前の支払準備金の悪化は1.6ポイントとなり、主にイノベーションズ部門の複数の契約に集中していました。
• 再保険市場の軟化傾向が、特にオープン・マーケット部門における保険料規模を圧迫しています。
• ソラスグラスの投資ボラティリティが、当四半期の引受利益の大部分を相殺しました。SOFR先物ポジションはエクスポージャーを削減したものの、年初来で大きなコスト負担となっています。
• 規制当局がアクエリアン・キャピタル（Aquarian Capital）によるブライトハウス・ファイナンシャル（Brighthouse Financial）の買収案件を阻止または延期する可能性があるとの懸念から、当四半期中にブライトハウスの株価は21%下落しました。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

アナリストからの唯一の質問は、デービッド・アインホーン氏との自社株買い取り契約に関するものでした。経営陣は、市場での自社株買いが進み発行済株式数が減少すると、結果としてアインホーン氏の持株比率が上昇してしまうためであると説明しました。

アインホーン氏の全体的な所有比率を適用可能な上限未満に維持するため、GLREは市場で買戻した株式数の33%に相当する株式を同氏から買い戻す協定を結んでいます。経営陣はこの取り決めについて、同社が自社株買いを継続できる能力を維持することを目的としたものであり、2027年3月まで延長されたと述べています。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings. Thank you for joining the Greenlight Capital Re Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to David Sigmon, Greenlight Re's General Counsel. Thank you. You may begin.

David Sigmon

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to remind you that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay following the conclusion of the event. An audio replay will also be available under the Investors section of the company's website at www.greenlightre.com. Joining us on the call today will be our CEO, Greg Richardson; Chairman of the Board, David Einhorn; and our Chief Financial Officer, Faramarz Romer.

On behalf of the company, I'd like to remind you that forward-looking statements may be made during this call and are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements reflect the company's current expectations, estimates and predictions about future results and are subject to risks and uncertainties. As a result, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may impact future performance, investors should review the periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time. Additionally, management may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations to these measures can be found in the company's filings with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

With that, it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg.

Greg Richardson

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The third quarter of 2026 was mixed with a strong underwriting result offset by investment losses. Overall, we reported a net profit of $3.2 million, which brings our year-to-date net income to $9.4 million. Fully diluted book value per share increased 0.8% in the quarter to $20.78 per share. We reported a combined ratio of 90.5% in the quarter, translating to $14.6 million of underwriting income. This result was driven by a combination of the strong underlying profitability of the book assisted by a benign cat quarter. Our open market book delivered an 87.9% combined ratio, while our innovations book delivered a 98.2% combined ratio.

Shifting to our top line. Our open market gross written premium contracted 10.4% in the quarter compared to prior year as we respond to the softening market conditions and exercise prudent cycle management. In contrast, our innovations book grew by 46% in the quarter, reflecting stable pricing and strong organic growth of the companies we support in this segment. During 2026, we have also expanded our use of outward reinsurance and third-party capital with overall gross written premium for the quarter down just 1.4%, while net written premium was down 12.3%. During our August earnings call, we noted a $25 million provision linked to the Middle East conflict. This provision reduced by $6 million in the third quarter as more information became available on specific individual losses.

While the Middle East conflict is still ongoing, it is noteworthy that we have not reported any new large losses this quarter. Our investment in the Solasglas portfolio was down 3.3% in the quarter. David will provide more color on this in his remarks. The Solasglas loss was offset by $10.5 million of other investment income. Included in other investment income was $4.1 million of realized gains on the partial sale of two innovations investments. As our innovations book matures, we are seeing opportunities to monetize gains on some of our investments. We will recycle this capital into new investment opportunities.

I would like to highlight a strategic partnership we announced last week with Hippo Holdings. Under the partnership, Hippo will have the opportunity to co-invest alongside our innovations unit in early-stage MGA investments. Furthermore, Hippo's carrier, Spinnaker Insurance Company, will serve as Greenlight Re's preferred U.S. admitted fronting carrier for qualifying co-invested programs.

This partnership builds on existing relationships between Hippo and Greenlight Re, and we believe it will help accelerate disciplined profitable growth of our Innovation segment. We are now focused on 1/1 renewals. While the market is continuing to soften, we generally believe that rates and terms remain attractive for our open market reinsurance business, and we expect to see profitable new opportunities through next year. As noted above, innovations growth continues to be strong with stable rates. Now I'd like to turn the call over to David.

David Einhorn

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. The Solasglas fund returned negative 3.3% in the third quarter. The loan portfolio detracted 7.6%, the short portfolio contributed 7.3% and macro detracted 2.8%. During the quarter, the S&P 500 Index advanced 2.3%. While the market advanced, our long and short portfolios behaved as if they were in a bear market; many of our longs and shorts declined between 10% and 25%. The longs reversed gains and the shorts reverse losses from earlier in the year without a company-specific catalyst. The largest positive contributors were shorts of AI adjacent companies and homebuilder stocks and our long position in DHT Holdings, which benefited from much higher tanker charter rates. The largest detractors were our macro position in short-term U.S. interest rates and our long positions in Green Brick Partners and Brighthouse Financial.

The largest detractor in the quarter was our macro SOFR futures position, which reflects our view that short-term interest rates will decline or at least not increase as much as the market expects. The position has been costly year-to-date, and we've reduced it to manage risk. Our remaining exposure extends through next summer, and we continue to believe that the market is pricing in more Federal Reserve rate increases than are likely to occur. Green Brick Partners shares declined 17% and gave back most of their second quarter appreciation. Brighthouse Financial shares fell 21% amid increasing concern that regulators would block or delay its pending acquisition by Aquarian Capital. We added a few small long positions to the portfolio during the quarter.

Century Aluminum is the largest domestic producer of primary aluminum. The company is benefiting from tariffs in a tight global market and has an attractive growth opportunity to bring new smelter capacity online with government subsidies. We presented this idea last month at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York. The full presentation is available on our homepage at www.greenlightcapital.com. We also added positions in ADI Global Distribution, a leading distributor of low-voltage electrical products that recently spun out of Resideo, and Canal+, a London-listed global pay TV and content production company.

Our net exposure ended the third quarter at 32% compared to 33% at the end of the second quarter. Solasglas returned 2.3% in October, bringing the 2026 year-to-date return to flat. Net exposure in the investment portfolio was approximately 28% at the end of October.

Greenlight Re continues to perform well in a softening reinsurance environment. The team has been disciplined and has made prudent decisions over the last year. While the market continues to trade our stock at a significant discount to book value, we continue our share repurchase plan and have bought back over 5% of our outstanding shares in 2026. Joe Platt has been a Director of Greenlight Re since 2004. At our Board meeting last week, he announced he will retire from the Board at the end of the year. Joe has been a great friend and a guiding light for the company through good times and bad. His role as Lead Director and his wise advice have been invaluable to me and the company. I wish Joe the best, and we will miss him. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Faramarz to discuss the financial results in more detail.

Faramarz Romer

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. During the third quarter of 2026, Greenlight Re reported a net income of $3.2 million or $0.10 per diluted share, bringing our year-to-date earnings to $9.4 million or $0.28 per diluted share. The underwriting income of $14.6 million for the quarter resulted in a combined ratio of 90.5%, which benefited from no new cat or large losses during the quarter. While the Middle East conflict has continued, we received favorable information relating to specific events that were reserved in the first and second quarters. As Greg mentioned, we reduced our case reserves by $6 million on certain events, while we have maintained our IBNR reserves given the uncertainty in the region. Prior year adverse reserve development was 1.6 points during the third quarter compared to 0.5 points in the same period last year. Most of the reserve strengthening related to a handful of contracts within the Innovation segment.

Now let's look at this quarter's results at the segment level. The Open Markets segment reported a pre-tax income of $19.5 million, composed of underwriting income of $15.2 million and investment income of $4.3 million. For the third quarter, the Open Market segment net written premiums decreased by 19% to $114.2 million, while net earned premiums decreased by 13% -- the decrease in net earned premiums was driven by lowered premium estimates on specialty and property proportional contracts as well as decreased exposure on the non-renewed casualty book. The open market combined ratio for the third quarter was 87.9% compared to 84.5% for the third quarter last year.

Loss ratio for open market decreased by 1.9 points, driven by favorable prior year reserve development of 0.6 points compared to adverse development of 0.6 points in the third quarter of last year. The favorable movement in the cat and large loss ratio from the release of reserves relating to the Middle East conflict was partially offset by higher attritional loss ratio mainly related to the specialty business compared to the same period last year. The acquisition cost ratio for the Open Market segment increased by 4.1 points compared to same period last year, mainly due to variable commission true-ups recorded in the quarter. Expense ratio increased by 1.1 points to 4.9% as a function of lower earned premiums and higher expenses related to personnel costs.

Moving to the Innovation segment. The Innovation segment reported a pretax income of $5.8 million, composed of underwriting income of $0.5 million and investment income of $6 million, partially offset by other expenses of $0.6 million. During the quarter, Innovations gross written premiums increased by $13.6 million or 46% compared to third quarter last year to $43 million, mainly driven by new business and exposure growth from existing treaties in multiline and financial lines. Net earned premiums in the third quarter increased by $7.1 million or 34% to $28.1 million as all lines within the Innovation segment grew compared to the same period last year. The combined ratio for Innovations was 98.2% during the third quarter compared to 96.8% for the same period last year.

The loss ratio in the third quarter increased by 13.5 points, primarily due to 7.6 points of adverse prior year reserve development, while during the same period last year, the segment reported a favorable reserve development of 3.1 points. The third quarter acquisition cost ratio for innovations improved by 10.1 points compared to the same period last year due to variable commission adjustments. In our 10-K filed yesterday, we noted that the Innovations underwriting expenses now include our share of Syndicate 3456 expenses, which were previously presented under acquisition costs. We have reclassified the comparatives to conform prior period figures to the new presentation as we believe it better reflects the nature of these expenses.

As we previously indicated, we expect the expense ratio for Innovations to decrease as the segment gains scale. We are starting to see evidence of this as the expense ratio improved by 2 points as the premium growth exceeded expense growth. We continue to invest in this segment to deliver profitable growth. Our new partnership with Hippo and the Lloyd's approval to transition Syndicate 3456 to a full syndicate are some of the initiatives that we expect will advance us towards this objective.

During the third quarter, we repurchased 505,000 shares for $8 million. Subsequently, in October, we repurchased an additional 220,000 shares for $3.3 million. Since the beginning of the year, we have repurchased 5.4% of our outstanding shares for $30.5 million. We have $24.8 million remaining under the current Board-approved repurchase plan, which will allow us to continue repurchasing shares opportunistically. At the end of the third quarter, our fully diluted book value per share was $20.78, an increase of 1.7% for the first 9 months of the year. That concludes our prepared remarks. The operator will now open the line for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Dan DeYoung.

質疑応答

Daniel DeYoung

Could you give more explanation of the tax considerations that make you want to keep David Einhorn's ownership of the company, I guess, where it is or lower it slightly during the share buybacks, please?

Greg Richardson

David, do you want to take that? Or do you want Faramarz to speak on that?

David Sigmon

Yes. Look, we've entered into a number of -- this is, I think, the third one now where we have a share repurchase agreement with David. I'll let David talk about the details of it. But essentially, as the company is buying back shares, it reduces the number of outstanding shares of the company and increases the portion that David is owning as he keeps holding on to the shares. So in order to ensure that David doesn't exceed the thresholds required, we have entered into an agreement where we repurchased 33% of the shares that we repurchased on the open market, we will repurchase them from David. So as we enter into our open market repurchase agreements, we then and enter into a similar agreement with David. And I think we just recently filed a new one with our 8-K yesterday, where you'll see that that's continuing up to March of 2027.

Daniel DeYoung

It's not something where David wants to reduce his ownership at all. It's just for tax considerations and the threshold of his ownership.

David Sigmon

Correct. To maintain this overall ownership percentage. Yes. That's right. The alternative would be not to be able to buy back stock.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, ladies and gentlemen, we would like to thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a great day.