LGIホームズ（LGIH）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：受注減少も売上高は増加

LGIホームズ（NASDAQ: LGIH）は、コミュニティの拡大、卸売事業の活性化、および営業費用の削減に支えられ、2026年第3四半期の引き渡し件数、売上高、利益の増加を発表しました。しかし、住宅ローン金利の高止まりと住宅取得能力（アフォーダビリティ）低下の圧力が純受注高を大幅に減少させ、キャンセル率の上昇を招きました。

主要なポイント

• 第3四半期の引き渡し戸数は前年同期比10.4%増の1,222戸となり、総売上高は10.2%増の4億4,450万ドルに増加しました。
• 純利益は24.6%増の2,460万ドルとなり、希薄化後1株当たり利益（EPS）は前年同期の0.85ドルから1.05ドルに増加しました。
• 住宅建設部門の売上総利益率は20.2%、調整後住宅建設売上総利益率は23.7%に達し、ともに前四半期比で40ベーシスポイント改善しました。
• 住宅取得能力の悪化に伴い、純受注数は61.2%減の609戸に大幅減少しました。キャンセル率は前年同期の33.6%から53.8%に上昇しました。
• LGIホームズは、通期の引き渡し戸数見通しを4,600〜4,800戸に引き絞る一方、価格設定、利益率、費用、およびコミュニティ数に関する見通しを再確認しました。
• 経営陣は、2026年第3四半期末時点の151か所に対し、2027年末までに稼働中のコミュニティ数が180か所に達すると見込んでいます。必要な資本の大半は既に投資済みです。

主要財務実績

事業および営業業績

LGIホームズは当四半期末時点で151の稼働中コミュニティを展開しており、前年同期比で7%超増加しました。1コミュニティあたりの月平均引き渡し件数は2.6件でした。アトランタが月7.3件で首位となり、シャーロットの3.7件、オースティンの3.6件がそれに続きました。

同社は、一次取得者向けの即入居可能な建売住宅（スペキュラティブ・ホーム）に引き続き注力しました。経営陣によると、このモデルにより、特に賃貸契約の満了が近づいている購入者に対し、価格、月々の支払額、入居時期に関する確実性を提供できるとしています。

コスト削減策が利益成長を支えました。総売上高が10%以上増加したにもかかわらず、販売管理費は金額ベースで2.5%減少しました。一般管理費は前年同期比6%減、前四半期比8%減の2,630万ドルとなりました。

LGIホームズは当四半期中に1,205戸を着工し、9月末時点の建設中住宅は1,626戸となりました。不動産棚卸資産投資は、主に完成在庫が23.3%減少したことにより、前年同期比で1億6,000万ドル減少しました。同社は第3四半期中に棚卸資産評価損を計上していません。

貸借対照表も改善しました。LGIホームズはリボルビング信用枠で3,600万ドル以上を返済し、有利子負債残高15億4,000万ドルで当四半期を終えました。純負債資本比率は前年同期比420ベーシスポイント低下の40.6%となりました。流動性は現金6,940万ドルとリボルビング信用枠の未使用枠3億7,830万ドルを含む計4億4,770万ドルとなりました。

経営陣による業績見通し

経営陣は、2026年通期の引き渡し戸数見通しを4,600〜4,800戸に引き絞りました。改定後の見通し範囲は、現在の受注残高、引き渡し可能な在庫、および年内の残りの期間における販売とキャンセルの予想を反映しています。

同社は、通期見通しのその他の項目を再確認しました。

• 平均販売価格：360,000〜370,000ドル
• 売上高比販売管理費率：15%〜16%
• 住宅建設売上総利益率：19%〜21%
• 調整後住宅建設売上総利益率：22.5%〜24.5%
• 期末稼働コミュニティ数：150〜160

経営陣は第4四半期の売上総利益率が第3四半期と同水準になると見込んでいますが、最終的な結果は今後完了する販売や引き渡しにおける卸売比率に一部依存します。

今後の見通しとして、LGIホームズは予定されているコミュニティの閉鎖分を差し引いた純増ベースで、2027年末までに180を超える稼働中コミュニティを展開すると見込んでいます。経営陣によると、新規開設は年間を通じて比較的均等に行われる予定で、テキサス州、カリフォルニア州、アトランタで顕著な拡大が見込まれます。この見通しには、追加の造成済み宅地購入や潜在的なM&Aは含まれていません。

リスクと注視すべき分野

住宅取得能力の低迷が、短期的な主な圧迫要因となっています。経営陣によると、購入者は月々の支払額に注目しており、金利の高止まりにより条件を満たす顧客層が減少しています。また、一部の購入者は収入の確認、所有住宅の売却、または頭金の準備にさらなる時間を必要としています。

キャンセル率は53.8%に上昇しました。これは住宅取得能力の圧迫、販売活動の減速、および販売見込み客の網羅化を反映しています。消化率の低下は大型土地開発プロジェクトの自己資本利益率（ROE）にも影響を与えていますが、経営陣は売上総利益率の水準に対して引き続き妥当と考えています。

LGIホームズは需要をサポートするため、引渡費用の補助、住宅ローン金利の引き下げ支援、将来金利予約を実施しています。経営陣は、インセンティブはコミュニティごとに個別に決定され、単に販売数量を増やすためだけに利益率を犠牲にするつもりはないと強調しました。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣は、足元の販売ペースが維持されれば通期引き渡し戸数見通しの下限を達成するのに十分であると述べました。資金調達の確認次第ではありますが、10月には約300戸の引き渡しが見込まれていました。

コミュニティの拡大について、経営陣は2027年末までに180を超える稼働コミュニティを目指す目標は純増数字であると説明しました。先行インフラや開発費用の多くは既にバランスシートに反映されており、これらの新規開設のために追加の借入を行うことなく拡大が可能であるとしています。

経営陣はまた、競合他社の一部が建売住宅の比率縮小を議論している中でも、一次取得者向けの建売在庫に対する自信を改めて示しました。新規コミュニティの価格帯は現在のポートフォリオとほぼ同水準となる見込みであり、現在の消化率および利益率を前提に査定が行われています。

戸建て賃貸事業者による買い付け活動は、今年前半の停滞期を経て再開されました。経営陣によると、協議は希望買値と希望売値の乖離を埋めることに焦点を当てているとのことです。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Welcome to the LGI Homes Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website at www.lgihomes.com. After management Prepared comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Joshua Fattor, Executive Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets.

Joshua Fattor

Thanks, Sonia, and good afternoon. I'll remind listeners that this call contains forward-looking statements, including management's views on the company's business strategy, outlook, plans, objectives and guidance for future periods. Such statements reflect management's current expectations and involve assumptions and estimates that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause those expectations to prove to be incorrect. To review our filings with the SEC for a discussion of the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ from those presented today. All forward-looking statements must be considered in light of those related risks, and you shouldn't place undue reliance on such statements, which reflect management's current views and are not guarantees of future performance.

On this call, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or a substitute for financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. We Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP can be found in the press release we issued this morning and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026, and which will be filed with the SEC today. This filing will be accessible on the SEC's website and on the Investor Relations section of our website.

I'm here today by Eric Lipar, LGI Homes' Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board; and Charles Merdian, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. I'll now turn the call over to Eric.

Eric Lipar

Thanks, Josh. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. During the third quarter, our team continued to execute well in today's highly competitive housing market where affordability is stretched. We closings, total revenue and homebuilding revenue compared to last year while maintaining strong profitability, expanding our community count and strengthening our balance sheet. We delivered 1,222 homes in the quarter, up over 10% from the prior year. Year-to-date, we delivered 3,578 homes, up over 4% compared to last year.

Our average selling price was $368,000, down slightly from the prior year primarily due to wholesale closings and geographic mix. Because of higher closings, homebuilding revenue and total revenue each increased 10% over the prior year. Profitability remained strong throughout the quarter. Our on-balance sheet predominantly owned land strategy, together with our in-house development capabilities reflects the long-term decisions we've made to set LGI apart from much of the industry. It remains a competitive advantage, generating strong margins while giving us flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions.

Homebuilding gross margin was 20.2%, and adjusted homebuilding gross margin was 23.7%. Both were up 40 basis points over the prior quarter in addition to being above the midpoint of the full year ranges we raised in August. Additionally, adjusted homebuilding gross profit dollars increased nearly 7% compared to last year reflecting higher closings, higher revenue and our continued focus on balancing profitability and affordability. Our team did an excellent job managing costs while continuing to support future growth.

SG&A expenses declined in absolute dollars from the prior year and improved 180 basis points relative to revenue. These results reflect the benefits of our scale, disciplined cost management and focus on operating efficiency across the business. Community growth is a key driver of our results and an important part of our long-term strategy. In August, we reached an all-time high of 153 active communities, and we ended the quarter with 151, an increase of over 7% compared to last year. That increase helped drive our year-over-year growth in closings and revenue and remains 1 of the best indicators of future growth because it expands our ability to serve more customers and increase earnings over time.

During the quarter, we averaged 2.6 home closings per community per month. Our top markets by closings per community were Atlanta at 7.3%, Charlotte at 3.7 and Austin at 3.6, Fort Pierce in Southern California, each at 3.4 closings per community per month. These markets reflect strong execution by our local teams across both our retail and wholesale channels and our focus on delivering value to our buyers. We also continue to strengthen our balance sheet.

During the quarter, we paid down over $36 million on our credit facility and reduced our net debt-to-capital ratio by 100 basis points sequentially, bringing the total reduction to 420 basis points over the last year. In October, we completed an amendment and extension of our revolving credit facility, which extends key lender support through 2030. Josh will cover more details later in the call.

As expected, the market became more challenging as the quarter progressed and affordability remained in the defining story of the quarter. Net orders were 609 homes, down from 1,570 homes last year. Our buyers make purchasing decisions based on the monthly payment, so affordability is always front and center. At today's payments, a smaller pool of buyers can qualify and those who do often need time to verify income sell their existing home or save for their down payment.

We remain confident in the long-term desire for homeownership. Our focus is on balancing sales pace and profitability, and we are committed to doing both. -- to make homeownership attainable to the largest pool of buyers, we are leaning into incentives across our regions, including closing cost assistance, buydowns and forward rate commitments. We'll use these tools with discipline, but we won't give up margins simply to chase volume. We also see a growing competitive advantage in our spec home model.

As other builders move away from the spec business, we're well positioned with move-in ready homes that give buyers certainty on price, payment and timing and our scale and in-house development capabilities allow us to keep delivering them at profitable margins. Through our direct-to-consumer model, we work closely with buyers throughout the home buying journey, and we expect many of them to close over time. Some buyers work with our teams for months to get through the process and enter their new home. We continue to see interest in homeownership and our job is to remain disciplined while adapting our sales and financing strategies, production plans and product offering to current conditions. While affordability matters, we are not simply stripping features from our home prices.

We continue to deliver high-quality homes with strong fit and finish, backed by best-in-class customer service from interaction through closing and beyond. We believe this commitment contributes to high customer satisfaction, low warranty costs and long-term value for customers and shareholders alike. We're also placing renewed emphasis on the experience beyond the home itself from the moment you arrive at one of our communities to the green space, amenddies and walkability that make it a place to call home.

We're pleased with the financial results we delivered in the third quarter, and we are focused on achieving our full year closings objective while maintaining strong profitability in this challenging environment.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Charles to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

Charles Merdian

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon. Our third quarter results reflect strong operating execution. Growth in closings, revenue and earnings, along with meaningful margin and cost improvements demonstrate the strength of our model even as higher interest rates weighed on current period orders. We delivered a total of 1,222 homes in the quarter, an increase of 10.4% compared to last year. Of these homes, 1,189 were new homes, an increase of 11.6% from last year. The remaining 33 closings were currently or previously leased homes, the gains from which were reflected in other income.

Homebuilding revenue was $437.5 million at an average sales price of $367,962, including a combined $7 million from lot sales and leasing operations, total revenue was $444.5 million an increase of 10.2%. Wholesale revenue during the quarter was $80.8 million, up 48.3% from $54.5 million in the same period last year. Our third quarter homebuilding gross margin was 20.2%, and adjusted homebuilding gross margin was 23.7%, both above the midpoint of the full year ranges we raised in August and both up 40 basis points compared to the prior quarter.

Adjusted homebuilding gross margin excludes $14.7 million of capitalized interest and $449,000 related to purchase account. Cost discipline was a continuing theme during the quarter. Combined selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $62.1 million, 14% of total revenue a 180 basis point improvement over the prior year. Our ongoing initiatives allowed us to grow total revenue more than 10% while reducing SG&A expenses by 2.5% in absolute dollars.

Selling expenses were $35.8 million or 8% of total revenue, down 80 basis points from the same period last year. The improvement was primarily due to higher revenue and lower operating costs partially offset by higher commissions and increased spending on advertising to drive leads. General and administrative expenses were $26.3 million, a decrease of 6% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. The decrease is primarily due to ongoing efficiency initiatives. As a percentage of revenue, G&A expenses decreased 100 basis points to 5.9% compared to the same period last year. Other income was $6.2 million, driven primarily by income from our joint ventures and gains on the sale of currently or previously leased homes.

Adjusted EBITDA totaled $52.7 million or 11.9% of total revenue, up 150 basis points year-over-year and 50 basis points sequentially. Pretax income was $33.3 million or 7.5% of total revenue and net income was $24.6 million, up 24.6% year-over-year and we delivered $1.05 per basic and diluted share compared to $0.85 last year. Net orders in the third quarter were 609 homes down 61.2% from 1,570 homes during the same period last year. The year-over-year decline reflects the increase in affordability pressures during the quarter compounded by the significant strength in sales activity during the third quarter of last year.

Our cancellation rate was 53.8% compared to 33.6% last year. And as we've discussed on prior calls, the elevated cancellation rate reflects ongoing affordability pressures, the timing effect of slower sales activity this quarter compared to the prior quarter and a broader sales funnel as we work to generate incremental orders. We ended the quarter with 685 homes in backlog valued at $273.7 million, representing decreases of 47.5% and 45.1%, respectively.

Turning to our land position. Our land strategy continues to emphasize flexibility. As of September 30, total owned and controlled blocks were 58,400 down 6.7% year-over-year and up 1.7% sequentially. Our owned lot position declined for the sixth consecutive quarter to 50,270, down from a peak of 61,893 in the second quarter of 2022. Control blocks increased 18.1% sequentially to 8,130 as we identified more attractive land opportunities, including finished lot deals available on takedowns and smaller projects that meet our underwriting criteria at today's absorption levels.

In total, dollars invested in real estate inventory decreased $160 million year-over-year, primarily due to a 23.3% reduction in the number of completed homes reflecting active inventory management and balanced home starts. We recorded no inventory impairments during the third quarter. We continue to evaluate our communities each quarter based on sales pace, pricing, incentives, margins and other relevant market conditions. And based on these assessments, the values remain in line with the amounts carried on our balance sheet.

The primary reason for this is our lot basis. Most of our land is self-developed and was acquired selectively. Of our owned lots, 34,119 or approximately 2/3 are in raw earned under development, and 79% of those are in engineering or held as undeveloped land where little capital is invested. A significant proportion of our inventory dollars are concentrated in the lots closest to sale. For example, completed homes and homes under construction make up just 7.5% of our own blocks but 28% of our $3.5 billion of inventory.

Of the remaining 16,151 owned lots, 12,378 were finished vacant lots, and 2,147 were related to completed homes and information centers. We started 1,205 homes in the third quarter and finished September with 1,626 homes under construction.

I'll now turn the call over to Josh for a discussion of our capital position.

Joshua Fattor

Thanks, Charles. Our capital position continued to strengthen during the quarter, supported by debt reduction, improved leverage metrics and the recast of our revolving credit facility. We ended the quarter with $1.54 billion of debt outstanding, including $411 million drawn on our revolver. As Eric highlighted, our debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 41.7% and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 40.6%. Compared to the same time last year, our net debt to capital ratio was down 420 basis points, further strengthening our balance sheet and enhancing our flexibility to opportunistically pursue when and other strategic investments that we believe will drive future shareholder value.

The recent amendment and extension of our revolving credit facility established total commitments of approximately $1.2 billion and extended key lender support through October of 2030. -- following the amendments, approximately $96 million of commitments mature in 2028, $215 million mature in 2029, and the remaining $855 million are now committed through 2030. Along with extending the duration, the amendment also improved the facility through several favorable borrowing base and covenant changes. Most notably, it brings our interest coverage covenant in line with current market terms. This more flexible framework enhances the overall utility of the facility to support our long-term strategy, while maintaining our disciplined approach to balance sheet management.

We ended the quarter with $447.7 million of liquidity, including $69.4 million of cash on hand and $378.3 million available to borrow on our facility. As of September 30, our stockholders' equity was approximately $2.2 billion and book value per share was $92.84.

At this point, I'll turn the call back over to Eric.

Eric Lipar

Thanks, Josh. We're pleased with our financial performance this quarter and remain confident in our ability to navigate the current market. Buyers continue to inquire by homeownership and engage with our sales teams even with mortgage rates still at elevated levels. Our focus remains on maintaining profitability, balance sheet strength, disciplined capital allocation and growing our community count, while helping more families achieve the dream of homeownership as we close out the year. Pending verification of fundings, we expect to announce that we closed approximately 300 homes in October. Based on these latest results, we are narrowing our full year closing guidance to between 4,600 and 4,800 homes. The revised range reflects the closings currently in backlog, our inventory available to close and our current expectations for sales and cancellation activity during the balance of the year.

Outside of closings, we are reaffirming the rest of our full year guidance. We continue to expect full year average selling price to range between $360,000 and $370,000 and as a percentage of revenue between 15% and 16%, homebuilding gross margin between 19% and 21% and and adjusted homebuilding gross margin between 22.5% and 24.5%. We continue to expect to end the year with 150 to 160 active communities. Looking further out, based on our current view of the communities we expect to open over the next year, we expect to be active in more than 180 communities by the end of 2027, an increase of approximately 20% compared to our community count today. These openings deepen our geographic footprint and expand our selling capacity, but we will continue to pace development and home starts based on market level demand and expected returns.

Much of the capital needed to support these openings has already been invested, which should allow us to grow our community count without requiring incremental debt, specifically to fund these openings. These communities were under in at today's absorption base, and we expect them to deliver similar absorptions and margins to what we're experiencing today. I'd like to recognize our employees for their continued hard work and commitment to our customers.

Earlier this quarter, LGI Homes was recognized by U.S. News and World Report as one of the best companies to work for. This recognition reflects the culture we have built over many years and the dedication of our employees across the country. Great customer experiences begin with engaged employees who take pride in their work. The quality of our homes, the experience we provide our customers and the strength of our operating performance, I'll start with our people.

As we head into the final stretch of 2026, our priorities are clear: protecting profitability, managing inventory and starts and ensuring a great customer experience. With a growing community base and experienced teams across our markets, we believe LGI Homes is well positioned to navigate current conditions and create long-term value. We'll now open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question will come from the line of Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research.

質疑応答

Trevor Allinson

It's good to see you guys are maintaining your full year gross margin guidance, but the full year number does imply a pretty wide range as you get to 4Q. So can you just help us dial in that number a little more closely? How are you expecting 4Q gross margin compared to 3Q? And then how many of your roughly 1,300 4Q closings do you guys need to sell and close intra-quarter 4Q?

Eric Lipar

Yes. Thanks, Trevor. This is Eric. I can talk first about the sales. Orders, as expected, slowed in September to October closings like we talked about, or approximately $300 million. So we'll need a similar sales pace, which has been fairly slow to get the low end of our closing range, 46,00 to 4,800. So we're comfortable in that number. And I think at this point, we want to keep a wide range on gross margin. We still have sales yet to make the wholesale as a percentage of how many closings is still a little bit to be determined. But I think overall, we expect gross margins to be similar in Q4 to Q3.

Trevor Allinson

Okay. And then second question kind of around pace and price. You talked about leaning back into incentives. Clearly, orders were pressured in the quarter, but then you also mentioned protecting profitability a number of times. So how should we think about the balance there. Is there a certain absorption pace that you guys are trying to get back to -- just trying to think about what you think is the right balance of pace and price for you guys here and what is a more challenging environment with higher rates.

Eric Lipar

Yes. Great question, Trevor. I think all of us are looking at this issue. And we, like a lot of others are really looking at a community by community. Our sales pace is strong in some of our communities. And some of our communities, we like to have a stronger pace. I think overall, we have been leaving into incentives all along. And with the interest rate spike we saw over the last 60 days is just more expensive to get the same rate -- so that's what we're balancing community by community across the country.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Alex Regal of Texas Capital Securities.

Alexander Rygiel

A couple of quick questions here. First, for clarification, you just mentioned you could be active in 180 communities by the end of 2027. Is that sort of like the gross number or the net number? How many communities might you be closing out of such that kind of at year-end 2027, what is sort of that active community count number on a net basis?

Eric Lipar

Great question, Alex. This is Eric. I can start Charles going to add to it or Josh, if they choose to. But the 180 is I would consider a net number I don't have in front of me how many communities will be closing out, but we expect to end 2026 with between 150 and 160 active selling communities. And in 2027, we are very confident having more than 180 in active communities opening at the end of 2027. And that does not include any other finished lot opportunities we buy over the next quarter or 2, and we're starting to see more and more of those opportunities and also doesn't include any M&A that would happen over the next 12 months.

Charles Merdian

I would just add. Sorry, Alex, I'd just add, right, a lot of those we emphasized in the scripted portion, just a lot of those dollars have already been invested. So those are dollars that are sitting on our balance sheet for the vast majority of that upfront infrastructure on a lot of these projects or development deals that were purchased a few years back and are now coming to fruition. And then secondly, the cadence of those, do you see it sort of being equally weighted throughout the year? Or is there a greater weighting either in the front end or the back end of the year?

Eric Lipar

No. We think it's going to be pretty equally weighted throughout the year.

Alexander Rygiel

Perfect. And then secondly, have you seen any competitors pull back on their spec strategy? And is that what's kind of giving you increased confidence here?

Eric Lipar

Yes, Alex, this is Eric. I don't know if we've seen it in the field more so than hearing about it through the builders commentary on earnings calls, et cetera. We are very confident in the spec strategy with our customer being the first-time homebuyer, the majority of that customer base is currently paying rents, and we have found over the years from that customer is looking to inquire by homeownership is usually at the end of the lease, maybe getting out of a roommate or a parent situation. and having available homes for that customer to move into is the correct strategy in the first-time homebuyer market, and we're comfortable with that.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question will come from the line of James McCanless of Citizens Bank.

Jay McCanless

First question, just if we could talk about the decline in orders versus last year. I mean it sounds from the outside looking in that you guys got a little more aggressive in terms of opening the funnel and just had some bad timing maybe with the higher mortgage rates hitting at the same time you were trying to increase the orders. Is that the right way to look at that?

Eric Lipar

That is Jay. Yes. Last year was a robust Q3 got aggressive underwriting orders. That strategy worked and we're still fairly aggressive today and want to have as many orders as we possibly can. But yes, last last quarter was a challenge from an orders perspective, I think somewhat as expected because of the higher rates.

Jay McCanless

Okay. All right. I just wanted to make sure we're thinking about that the right way. Second question, and you kind of talked about this earlier, Eric, but maybe could you talk about how old the current communities are that are in the field, like what percentage may of them were underwritten to the current incentives and levels and some of the pricing actions you're having to take -- just trying to get a sense of maybe 40%, 50% of the communities have been underwritten to current standards and what that might look like at that 180 communities next year.

Eric Lipar

Yes, that's a great question, Jay. We may have to handle that on a follow-up call and get some more information as far as the older age of the communities and Charles and Josh can certainly add to that. I'd say the counties we bought that are larger communities that were very heavily doing land development. We're very comfortable in the gross margin. I think the slower absorption pace really impacts return on equity. -- and the newer communities that are opening as men decount really is they're underwrote to today's gross margin and today's absorption pace and very respectful return on equity, I say.

But yes, the large land development projects -- the IRR return on equity has been impacted, but we're still very comfortable in our overall gross margin.

Charles Merdian

Jay, I think I'd add on that, some of the adjustments that we can make even though the dollars spent on acquiring the land upfront and maybe developing Section 1 and some of the upfront infrastructure have all been in place, but we've done a really good job of adjusting our future section sizes as we go through the engineering and development phase to adjust the original projected cash flows have now been paced back out, which is helping offset some of that slower absorption pace that we may have underwrote to at a higher pace.

Jay McCanless

Got it. Okay. And then the next question I had, demand from the single-family for rent community, how is that trending? And are you seeing that pick up as the 10 years come back in some from the highs we saw in mid-October?

Eric Lipar

Yes. I think it's getting better, Jay, they're all engaging with us once we got clarity, legislative clarity over the last 12 months. It was pencils down for the first half of the year. Now we're engaging with those buyers and really working through the bid-ask spread and working out orders for Q4 in 2027.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Alex Barron of Housing Research Center.

Alex Barrón

Yes. I wanted to ask -- so regarding the orders and the current situation, have you guys adjusted anything since the quarter began either like in incentives or in or in pricing to try to boost your orders for the fourth quarter?

Eric Lipar

I think, Alex, a couple of things. One is we all want more orders. We are focused on making that decision community by community. We're also focused on taking a long-term approach, not rash short-term decisions with the interest rates spiking day-to-day. And the orders that are in the past, that's reflective in our adjusted guidance we have built that into our 46,00 to 4,800. And then the orders coming currently in what we sell over November, December is really going to be building on 2027, and we'll get back with everybody on our expectations -- right now, we expect it to be more of the same, 27% compared to 2026 overall.

Alex Barrón

Okay. And in terms of the new communities that you guys are rolling out to get to the $180 million -- is there anything different about them? Is there more concentration in a certain geography? Is there a lower price point or higher price point? Or are they pretty much similar to what your current portfolio?

Eric Lipar

I think from a price point, it's going to be similar. Looking at the scheduled opening quite a few in Texas, quite a few in California, quite a few in Atlanta, some of our top-performing markets where we're opening new communities and going deeper in those markets. So that probably balances out as far as ASP goes. I think the other difference is a lot of these are finished lot opportunities that we didn't necessarily develop that we're buying from developers. -- and also looking at all the communities are always looking at our product, working on improving our product, make sure the product is appropriate for the market and the community that we're going into.

Alex Barrón

Okay. At this time, I'm not showing any further questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Keeper for closing remarks.

Eric Lipar

Yes. Thanks, everyone, for participating on today's call and for your continued interest in LGI Homes. Have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.