マラソン・ペトロリアム（MPC）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：過去最高の稼働率と42億ドルの資産売却

マラソン・ペトロリアム（NYSE: MPC）が発表した2026年第3四半期決算は、製油所の高い稼働率、マージンの改善、規律ある事業執行によって収益およびキャッシュ創出力が押し上げられ、好調な結果となりました。また経営陣は、42億ドルの資産売却の概要を発表し、売却益をメキシコ湾岸地域への投資や株主還元に充てる計画を明らかにしました。

主要なポイント

• 2026年第3四半期の1株当たり利益（EPS）は26.93ドル、調整後EBITDAは117億ドルとなり、前年同期比で85億ドル増加しました。
• 精製・マーケティング部門は99億ドルの調整後EBITDA（バレル当たり34.15ドル）を計上し、総処理量が日量320万バレルに近づくなか、稼働率は第3四半期として過去最高の100%に達しました。
• MPCとMPLXは、セントポール・パーク製油所およびマンダン製油所と関連ミッドストリーム資産をCVRエナジーに42億ドルで売却することに合意しました。MPCは34億ドルを、MPLXは7億5000万ドルを受け取ります。
• 運転資本の変動を除く営業キャッシュフローは85億ドルとなりました。MPCは当四半期に33億ドルを株主に還元し、これには30億ドルの自社株買いが含まれます。さらに10%の増配を発表しました。
• 2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は原油精製処理量を日量280万バレル、稼働率を95%とし、2億3000万ドルの定期修理費用を見込んでいます。
• 経営陣は、世界的な設備能力の制約と米国の石油製品在庫の低水準を理由に、少なくとも2027年半ばまでは高水準のマージンが続き、今年代末に向けて精製事業のミッドサイクル環境が好転すると予想しています。

主要財務データ

事業および営業業績

精製・販売部門

MPCの製油所における処理量は日量約320万バレル、稼働率は100%に達しました（予定されていた定期修理にもかかわらず）。経営陣はこの業績の要因として、信頼性向上への投資、従業員のトレーニング、ならびに計画・商業・運用の各チーム間にわたる連携強化を挙げています。

地域別の業績も引き続き堅調でした：

• メキシコ湾岸地域： 稼働率は99%、1バレル当たり約33ドルの調整後EBITDA（予定されていた転換装置の停止にもかかわらず）。
• 中西部地域： 過去最高の稼働率101%および1バレル当たり36ドルの調整後EBITDAを記録。
• 西海岸地域： 同地域として過去最高の稼働率98%および1バレル当たり33ドル超の調整後EBITDAを記録。

精製キャプチャー率は93%でした。ベンチマークとなるクリーン製品価格の上昇幅が副製品価格の上昇幅を上回ったため、副製品がMPCの歴史上、キャプチャー率に対する最大の逆風となりました。また、ジェット燃料マージンの低下や季節的な在庫積み増しも同指標の重荷となりました。

経営陣によると、MPCは全体の約ガソリンと軽油の間の製品歩留まり4%により、システムがジェット燃料や軽油の収益性の変化に対応できるようになります。ウエスタン・カナディアン・セレクト（WCS）のスプレッドが拡大する中、同社は第4四半期に重質カナダ原油の処理量が過去最高を記録すると予想しています。

ポートフォリオの再編とメキシコ湾岸への投資

MPCとMPLXは、セントポール・パーク製油所およびマンダン製油所と関連するミッドストリーム資産をCVRエナジーに42億ドルで売却することに合意しました。経営陣は、この取引によりポートフォリオが、より強い長期的な成長と価値創造の可能性を持つ資産に適合することになると述べました。

MPCは売却益をハードルレートに基づき、主にメキシコ湾岸地域に再投資する意向です。2027年末までに稼働開始が見込まれる既存プロジェクトには以下が含まれます。

• ガルベストン・ベイにおける、高硫黄軽油をより付加価値の高い超低硫黄軽油に転換する日量9万バレルのディスティレート水素化脱硫装置の建設。
• ゲーリービルにおける原料最適化により、原油処理能力が日量3万バレル増加する見込み。
• ゲーリービルにおける柔軟性の向上により、日量1万バレルの輸出向けプレミアムガソリンの追加生産が可能に。

経営陣は、潜在的な投資が転換能力、処理能力、歩留まり向上、信頼性、柔軟性、および操業コスト削減に重点を置くと言及しました。MPCは、メキシコ湾岸での追加プロジェクトが進展した場合、2027年の設備投資計画が直近の水準を上回る可能性があると見込んでいます。

ミッドストリーム

MPLXは天然ガスおよび天然ガス液（NGL）インフラの拡張を継続しました。ハーモン・クリークIIIは、日量3億立方フィートのガス処理能力と日量4万バレルの脱エタン能力を備えて操業を開始しました。

このプロジェクトにより、北東部における処理能力は日量81億立方フィートに、分別処理能力は日量80万バレルに拡大しました。また、MPLXとそのパートナーは、パーミアン盆地からの天然ガス輸送能力をさらに日量45億立方フィート追加提供するように設計されたソリチュード・パイプライン・システムに関する最終投資決定（FID）に達しました。

MPLXは四半期分配金を12.5%引き上げ、3年連続の増配となりました。MPCは現在、MPLXから年間31億ドルの分配金を受け取ると見込んでおり、これはMPCの年間配当金および設備投資額を上回ります。

再生可能ディーゼル

再生可能ディーゼルの調整後EBITDAは、前年同期比で3億1000万ドル増加し、マージン改善、規制クレジット価格の上昇、処理能力向上に支えられました。経営陣によると、第4四半期初期も同様の傾向を示しています。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

第4四半期の製油所メンテナンスは、主にメキシコ湾岸および西海岸の転換装置に重点が置かれます。経営陣は、この工事によってMPCの特定製品のアップグレード能力が制限され、マージン捕捉の逆風になると警告しました。

経営陣は、2027年の定期修理活動が2026年よりも軽微になると予想しています。また、MPLXの営業EBITDAは第3四半期と比較して第4四半期に拡大すると見込まれており、最近完了したプロジェクトの稼働拡大に伴い、2027年のEBITDA成長率は2026年を上回ると経営陣は予想しています。

リスクと注目点

• 10月を通じて副産品価格の設定がマージン捕捉の大きな逆風となり、第4四半期初頭の状況は第3四半期と同様となっています。
• 計画されている第4四半期の転換装置のメンテナンスにより、アップグレードの柔軟性が低下し、精製マージン捕捉率の重荷となります。
• 精製市場の環境は引き続き変動が大きく、地政学的動向、運賃コスト、季節的需要、および非計画的な設備停止に対して敏感に反応します。
• 経営陣は、およそ日量1,000万バレルの計画的および非計画的な世界精製能力の停止が発生しており、これは過去の基準を約日量300万バレル上回っていると述べ、ペルシャ湾での混乱やロシアのインフラへの攻撃を反映していると指摘しました。
• 税金により、MPCの精製資産売却から得られる純売却益が減少します。経営陣は、精製資産の売却益は課税対象となる見込みであると説明しました。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

資産売却益と資本配分： 経営陣は、優先事項が引き続き戦略的投資、バランスシートの規律、配当、および自社株買いであることを改めて強調しました。MPCは売却益を主にメキシコ湾岸のプロジェクトに充てる計画ですが、自社株買いを通じた資本還元も継続する意向です。

精製需要とマージン： 経営陣は、自社システム全体で需要減退が見られないと述べました。ガソリン、ディーゼル、ジェット燃料の需要は引き続き底堅く、米国のディーゼル在庫は過去5年のレンジを下回り、ガソリン在庫はそのレンジの底付近にあります。

カナダ産原油へのエクスポージャー： MPCは第4四半期にカナダ産重質原油の処理量が過去最高になると予想しています。経営陣は、WCSの価格差拡大、パイプラインの割当制限、およびMPCの原油運賃リスクへの限られた露出を好材料として挙げました。

操業の信頼性： 経営陣は、100%の稼働率を達成した要因として、複数年にわたる信頼性投資、規律あるメンテナンス、トレーニング、ならびに計画・商業・操業チーム間の迅速な連携を挙げました。

西海岸でのポジショニング： MPCはロサンゼルス製油所で処理するカリフォルニア産原油の量を2倍以上に増やしました。経営陣はまた、アナコルテスへの低コストな内陸原油の供給や、現在の市場水準を下回る賃料で確保した定期借船契約を競合上の優位性として挙げました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

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決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Welcome to the MPC Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. My name is Julie, and I will be your operator for today's call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Brian Worthington. Brian, you may begin.

Brian Worthington

Welcome to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investors tab. Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, CEO; Maria Khoury, CFO; and other members of the executive team.

We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as in our SEC filings. With that, I will turn the call over to Maryann.

Maryann Mannen

Thank you, Brian. Good morning. We are pleased to welcome David Constable to the Marathon Board effective March 1, 2027. His 4 decades of global leadership, experience in energy, chemicals, engineering and construction sectors will be a tremendous asset as we execute our strategy.

Our third quarter results demonstrate the earnings power of MPC's value chains. Consistent with our commitment to safe and reliable operations we achieved record third quarter utilization of 100% to meet market demand while executing our planned turnaround and maintenance activity. Consistent with our commitment to safe and reliable operations, we achieved record third quarter utilization across all 3 regions, our teams executed in a strong margin environment.

We delivered peer-leading cash flow generation in the third quarter, demonstrating the strength of our system, ensuring the long-term competitive position of our portfolio is a strategic commitment. And today, we announced steps we are taking to advance our strategic commitment. MPC has agreed to sell the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries, and MPLX has agreed to sell the associated midstream assets to CVR Energy for $4.2 billion.

MPC will receive $3.4 billion and MPLX will receive $750 million. MPLX expects to redeploy proceeds from the sale to advance its growth plans anchored in the Permian and Marcellus basins. The refining macro environment remains constructive and the U.S. Gulf Coast is the most structurally advantaged refining region globally.

We intend to reinvest the proceeds from the announced sale of our Mid-Con asset opportunities that meet our return thresholds and advance our strategic priorities, primarily in the Gulf Coast. Globally, there are 10 million barrels per day of planned and unplanned refining capacity off-line. This is approximately 3 million barrels per day above historical norms, reflecting ongoing Persian Gulf disruptions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure. U.S. diesel inventory is below the 5-year range, while gasoline inventory is near the bottom of its 5-year range, underscoring continued market tightness.

Yet within our system, demand remains resilient across gasoline, diesel and jet. We expect to remain in an enhanced mid-cycle environment through the end of the decade with elevated margins through at least mid-2027. Against this backdrop, our ability to run advantaged crude and optimize our value chain provides a sustainable advantage. The scale, geographic diversity and flexibility of our refining system enable us to respond rapidly across dynamic market conditions. Access to low-cost natural gas and integrated midstream logistics further enhances the competitiveness of our system. And we are investing in value-enhancing opportunities focused on lowering operating costs and enhancing system reliability while improving our ability to convert lower value inputs into the high-value products, the market continues to demand.

We expect the investments we have been making in our Gulf Coast region to enter service by year-end 2027. These include the construction of a 90,000 barrel per day distillate hydro-treater at our Galveston Bay refinery, which will convert lower value, high sulfur diesel to higher-value ULSD. At Garyville, further feedstock optimization will increase crude throughput by 30,000 barrels per day and reduce our reliance on higher-cost intermediate purchases.

Additionally, we are increasing flexibility at Garyville to produce an incremental 10,000 barrels per day of export premium gasoline, while lowering cost. We will continue evaluating additional opportunities to further strengthen the long-term competitiveness of our strategic value gains, positioning the portfolio for today and the future.

Moving on to our midstream business, MPLX continued to execute its natural gas and NGL value chain strategies. Harmon Creek III began operations with 300 million cubic feet per day of gas processing and 40,000 barrels per day of de-ethanization capacity, increasing our Northeast processing capacity to 8.1 billion cubic feet per day and fractionation capacity to 800,000 barrels per day.

Additionally, MPLX and its joint venture partners announced FID of the Solitude pipeline system, which when completed, will provide an additional 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas egress from the Permian Basin.

MPLX is also progressing the expansion of sour gas treating capacity at the Titan complex to more than 400 million cubic feet per day expected by year-end. Natural gas and NGL fundamentals remain robust, creating compelling opportunities to support growing domestic and global demand for U.S. energy. MPLX continues to advance its integrated U.S. Gulf Coast wellhead-to-water strategies through disciplined investment across the value chain. MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the third consecutive year. The increase is supported by MPLX's multiyear track record of delivering mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and growth projects coming online over the next several years. MPC now expects to receive $3.1 billion of annual distributions from MPLX more than covering MPC's annual dividend and capital expenditures, a differentiator in our industry.

During the third quarter, MPC returned $3.3 billion of capital, executing on our commitment to industry-leading capital return. We also announced a 10% increase in MPC's quarterly dividend, consistent with our capital allocation priorities. We are maintaining balance sheet discipline with a targeted cash framework that allows flexibility while supporting return capital. We will execute safely, invest strategically and generate significant cash all at the same time. With that, I'll turn it over to Maria to walk through our financial performance.

Maria Khoury

Thank you, Maryann, and good morning. Our third quarter results demonstrate a strong operational performance across the business. We delivered earnings per share of $26.93 and adjusted EBITDA of $11.7 billion. Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel was $34.15. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital changes, was $8.5 billion, and we returned $3.3 billion to shareholders. These results reflect disciplined execution.

The next slide shows the year-over-year change in adjusted EBITDA from third quarter 2025 to third quarter 2026. Adjusted EBITDA increased $8.5 billion year-over-year led by our Refining & Marketing segment. Overall, our results demonstrate the earnings power of our value chains enabled by strong planning, commercial and operational execution.

Turning to our segment results. Refining & Marketing segment, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $9.9 billion. Every region contributed to the significant improvement year-over-year, primarily driven by a stronger margin environment. With total throughput of nearly 3.2 million barrels per day, our refineries ran at 100% utilization. We achieved this while executing our planned turnaround activity, maintaining our commitment to safe and reliable operations. Execution matters, and we delivered.

Let's talk about our regional performance. In the Gulf Coast, we ran at 99% utilization despite planned conversion unit downtime delivering nearly $33 of adjusted EBITDA per barrel. Our ability to respond to market signals and maximize distillate yields was enhanced by the added flexibility from our cable investment that came online earlier this year. The Mid-Con we achieved record utilization of 101% and delivered $36 of adjusted EBITDA per barrel, higher rates and maximize distillate yields were supported by our Robinson investment that came online in the second quarter.

In the West Coast, we ran at 98% utilization at record levels for this region delivering over $33 of adjusted EBITDA per barrel. Our results reflect our commitment to peer-leading profitability per barrel in every region where we operate.

Turning to Slide 7. Third quarter capture was 93%. Secondary products were a material headwind, the largest we have seen on an absolute basis to capture as benchmark clean product prices increased more than secondary product prices during the quarter. Weaker jet margins and seasonal inventory bills were additional headwinds and partially offset by clean product margins and wider diesel to gasoline spreads in the quarter. Importantly, 100% utilization enabled us to optimize the system while a strong planning and commercial performance further strengthened our results. A slide shows our midstream segment results. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased $173 million compared to the third quarter 2025.

The increase was primarily driven by higher rates and throughput, increased income from equity affiliates and growth from acquisitions. Underlying operating performance was strong across MPLX's value chains. As additional projects enter service and utilization increases across the system, MPLX is positioned to deliver durable mid-single adjusted EBITDA growth.

Now moving to Slide 9. We cover our renewal diesel performance. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased by $310 million year-over-year. These results were supported by a more constructive margin environment, improved regulatory credit values and higher throughputs. We continue to optimize operations and leverage our feedstock and logistics flexibility to adapt to market conditions. This performance demonstrates the value of our disciplined investment.

Slide 10 presents the elements of change in our consolidated cash position for the third quarter. Operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, was $8.5 billion. Working capital was at $2.3 billion source of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by income tax payables and the timing benefit of the SBR crude exchanges. In the quarter, MPC redeem all of its outstanding $749 million senior notes due December 2026. As we think about liability management, we will consider opportunities when the economics are favorable. During the quarter, we returned $3.3 billion of capital to shareholders, demonstrating a strong cash generation and disciplined execution. At the end of the quarter, MPC had roughly $13.6 billion of consolidated cash and short-term investments, including MPLX's cash of nearly $1.3 billion.

Now turning to guidance. On Slide 11, we provide our fourth quarter outlook. For the Refining & Marketing segment, we are projecting crude throughput volumes of 2.8 million barrels per day, representing utilization of 95%. Turnaround expenses is projected to be $230 million with activity mainly focused on conversion units in the Gulf Coast and West Coast regions. This will limit our ability to upgrade certain products and create a headwind to capture. For the year, turnaround expenses remain in line with our 2026 outlook of $1.350 billion. For the renewable diesel segment, we are projecting 85% utilization and planned turnaround costs of $65 million, driven primarily by turnaround activity at Dickinson. With that, let me pass it back to Maryann for closing remarks.

Maryann Mannen

Thank you, Maria. Our performance reinforces the strength of MPC's value proposition our scale, flexibility and geographical diversification are key competitive advantages. Combined with our integrated midstream logistics and our commercial capabilities, these advantages allow us to optimize our system and enhance margins in dynamic market conditions.

Safety and reliability are foundational, ensuring the competitive position of our assets, is a strategic commitment. We are developing a resilient portfolio for today and for the future, investing where we see attractive returns and sustainable competitive advantages. We are directing investment to our Gulf Coast value chain to further strengthen the long-term competitiveness of our system.

Our capital allocation priorities are consistent. We remain committed to industry-leading capital return supported by strong cash generation that enables us to continue to invest in the business. MPLX provides durable growth and an increasing source of cash flow to MPC, further strengthening our through-cycle cash flow profile. Global supply and demand fundamentals support our constructive outlook for both U.S. refining and midstream. Our differentiated portfolio and disciplined execution, position MPC to deliver exceptional value across market cycles. With that, I'll turn the call back to Brian.

Brian Worthington

Thank you, Maryann. [Operator Instructions]

We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

質疑応答

Neil Mehta

Yes. Thanks, Maryann, for the rundown here. Just wanted to start off on the transactions and the asset sales. It's been a long time since Marathon has monetized some of its refining assets. So maybe you could just talk about the process, why you identified these assets and how that fits into the broader strategy? And how did you get comfortable with the valuation around this monetization as well.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, Neil, thanks for the question. And maybe before I share a little bit about the divestiture, once again, I really want to thank the employees of our St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries, and those employees that are accompanying the midstream assets that supported as well for their ability to safely and reliably operate these assets up until this point and all the way through the close of the transaction.

So just a big thank you for all of our employees. But let me try to address your question, Neil, around the divestiture. I think you know maybe as far back as August of 2024. I and the rest of the leadership team have really been talking about ensuring that we create a portfolio for today, looking at market demand, et cetera, and a portfolio for the future. And we remain committed to ensuring that, that is a portfolio that we are operating consistently. We acted on an opportunity to align our portfolio with our strategy at valuations that I think we deem to be very attractive. Glad that we are able to divest to a company that is looking to grow and also operate safely and reliably. And we believe those assets fit well into their portfolio. And as I mentioned, I think we have been committed to ensuring that we will deploy capital strategically grow in the areas like the U.S. Gulf Coast that we believe have the strongest long-term potential for growth and value creation. So that would be the reason why all of our assets in our portfolio are cash flow positive and generating strong returns there. But this was, we think, an appropriate decision to align our strategy with the long term. Let me pause, Neil, and see if I've answered your question.

Neil Mehta

You have. And that kind of brings me to the follow-up, which is just as we think about crude sourcing post this transaction, how should we think about how much WCS Marathon is running? And just your perspectives on the Western Canadian crude environment, I think on the last call, you had indicated a view that it could widen out a little bit before this has exceeded, I think, even the most bullish expectations for differentials. So your views on the market and your perspective on how much WPS you can run through the system.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, Neil, I think you said it well. I'm going to give Rick the opportunity to share some of the details. But as you know, we have been one of the largest, if you will, operators that using WCS including the imports, and we continue to see the strength of those differentials, particularly as you look into the fourth quarter. So let me pass it to Rick.

Rick Hessling

Yes, Neil. So we're really leaning into the WCS story. I think this morning, my team reported to me that there was a print of minus 32 [indiscernible] barrel under TI. So it continues -- that differential continues to widen out. And when you look at it, Neil, I continue to think it may widen out further. There's just significant tailwinds when you look at the heavy and the sour grades. It's led by freight, the freight challenges with crude export economics, especially on the medium and heavy sour barrel and thankfully, for MPC, we have a very small exposure to freight on the crude side as about 90% of our crude sourcing is from U.S. and Canada. And then what little we do bring in via waterborne barrels, we locked into very attractive time charter rates before the war started. So we're in a really good spot there. And then when you couple that with the Venezuelan and the SPR barrels that have hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, the diluents that are being blended into the heavy Canadian right now. And then here recently, we just saw increased Enbridge apportionment on both lights and heavies we're in a really good spot. In fact, here in the fourth quarter, we expect to set records on how much heavy Canadian we process.

Operator

The next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.

Manav Gupta

I wanted to ask you on the refining macro you guys are constructive coming into this year. Obviously, it's been a record year for you. I'm just trying to understand what's the margin outlook now. We have seen gasoline pull back. Do you think that's just seasonal, but obviously, the overall differentials even medium sours are pretty wide. So as you enter 2027, how are you looking in terms of the overall refining macro? And have you seen any early signs of any kind of demand destruction here?

Maryann Mannen

Again, it's Maryann. So let me start first with -- as you mentioned, we have been extremely constructive long-term prior to the Iran conflict. We look at the supply coming online, frankly, and the demand that we see over the longer term. And we went into 2026 in a very constructive environment. Obviously, Iran conflict has had significant impact, really elevating margins as you see. And one of the things that we've been trying to do, frankly, is capitalize on that through our planning, commercial and operational excellence to be sure that delivering the greatest value possible. As we -- as I've mentioned, and again, Rick will give you a little bit more color here. But frankly, we haven't seen really demand destruction across our system, particularly when you look at jet and diesel. So we head into 2027 believing that it is -- continues to be structurally sound, solid, notwithstanding the timing of resolution on the Iran conflict, a series of things would have to happen. So we remain quite constructive over '27. I'll let Rick give you incremental color to some of the specifics there.

Rick Hessling

Yes, Manav, on the demand side specifically, when you really take a step back and look at the industry, but then even say, look at MPC specific, we ran at 100% utilization in 3Q and met all of our consumer demands, both domestically and internationally. And then when you kind of overlay that and look at the inventories on gas and diesel, they continue to remain at or below 5-year averages.

So we're really bullish as you look back into the larger term S&D fundamentals within the system. And then as Maryann said, within our system, consumer demand remains very resilient across gasoline, diesel and jet, both domestically and internationally. And then on the recent pullback, I think maybe a little color there. We're expecting the unexpected. Everything you see is headline driven here lately. But in our view, a slight pullback was not unexpected as we transitioned out of the summer driving season. This is just a seasonal pullback that is quite typical as well as when you couple that with their third quarter turnarounds, it really makes sense to us. But going forward, Manav, we see continued volatility we're bullish because of the inventory positions I mentioned on gas and diesel throughout the United States. And bright days are ahead. We haven't entered a winter season in this position ever, and we feel very constructive on it going forward.

Manav Gupta

My quick follow-up is on the amount of cash on the balance sheet. You ended the quarter at 12.3. This is before the asset sale proceeds come in and then fourth quarter is looking pretty strong, as you said. Your cash on the balance sheet could balloon to over $20 billion by the end of this year. And that's a lot of cash to hold on to the balance sheet. So I'm just trying to understand the possible uses of this amount of cash on the balance sheet.

Maryann Mannen

Certainly. Yes, you're right. Obviously, as we look at the third quarter, we built cash and of course, depending on how you view that outlook for the fourth quarter, Rick just shared with you sort of how we see it. We are obviously quite constructive. We could build cash again. A few things to think about. In the third quarter, we remain disciplined to our capital allocation priorities. We increased our dividend 10% at normal timing as we have in previous years. We also bought back $3 billion of our own equity. We would continue to say that our capital allocation priorities have not changed. And to your point, as we see the sales come to conclusion as we're projecting by the end of the fourth quarter. We would also see, obviously, net proceeds from that.

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks and you see in the press release, our objective would be to invest those proceeds into U.S. Gulf Coast as well as other value chains. Historically, over the last few years, we have put capital to work that has grown our EBITDA per barrel. You can talk about the things that we did in 2026, frankly. We talked about our Robinson jet project talked about Garyville coming online in 2027. We have the DHT. We have 2 Garyville projects that I mentioned that will reduce cost, improve feedstock input as well as give us capabilities for export premium, and we see the opportunity in the U.S. Gulf Coast to put that capital to work as well, Manav.

Operator

The next question comes from Sam Margolin with Wells Fargo.

Sam Margolin

Well, your last point, I think, is a pretty good prompt for some more detail on maybe some reinvestment opportunities in the Gulf Coast. It sounds like you have a lot underway right now, you're prosecuting some projects, but I think you just said pretty clearly that you see opportunity for more. So can you talk about the categories of reinvestment that are most appealing right now, whether it's debottlenecking or conversion or all of the above? Or what exactly I think is jumping off the screen for you right now?

Maryann Mannen

Sure, Sam. First and foremost, whenever we consider putting capital to work as we've been sharing over the last several years, we want to be sure that there are certain things that are evident and obvious when we put capital to work on, we're looking for yield enhancement. We're looking to strengthen our reliability. Frankly, you may have heard over the last couple of quarters, we talked about reliability that has been kind of some of the best that we've been able to experience in a decade as those projects come to fruition, critically important. We want to enhance flexibility. We talked about increasing our jet yield and also having flexibility to move to different distillates as demand changed.

We executed those this year. And then cost reduction also being a place that we would look to invest. They are the areas where our review, if you will, and objectives must be met. If you think actually over the last 5 years from the capital that we've put to work, we've actually been able to increase about 175,000 barrels a day of capacity, and I think that's been pretty important. But I'm going to pass it to Mike because as you know, we've got what we think to be -- 2 of the best assets in the U.S. Gulf Coast, one of which is probably the lowest cost operating asset. And I'd like Mike to share a bit about what he is contemplating, what we're contemplating as well into next year.

Unknown Executive

Yes, Sam, a couple of things. Obviously, the reliability. We're continuously investing in that. But all the things you laid out are all in the plan, to be honest with you. We're looking at additional conversion, yield enhancements and throughput as well in the Gulf Coast and as Maryann stated, we have 2 world-class facilities there that we intend to invest in. But the future looks bright in the Gulf Coast, and we're ready to invest.

Sam Margolin

Okay. And then just as a follow-up on the seasonality of gasoline. I think one of the factors right now that's unusual is that LPGs have very high value and it's influencing blending economics and some other seasonality that might be important in gasoline. But MPC has a very integrated system when it comes to LPGs and blending. And so -- maybe if you could just remark a little bit on how you're positioned right now within this kind of abnormal commodity SKU with respect to butane and seasonal gasoline?

Rick Hessling

Yes, Sam, a very timely question. We have a build program that we execute, and we executed it very well on butane this year. So we built in 2Q and early 3Q, and to your point, we're reaping the benefits of that right now significantly. So I would say we're positioned very well from a butane perspective. And then I would also say when you look at propane, where we export a decent amount of propane as well, and we're seeing [indiscernible].

Operator

Please continue to host for today's conference call. We will begin 1 moment. Please continue to hold. We are having technical difficulties. Please stand by.

[Technical Difficulty]

Maryann Mannen

Sam, it's Maryann, can you hear us, sorry, we think we lost audio there for a moment. I just wanted to be sure that you got the answer to your question.

Sam Margolin

Yes, I heard -- that's right. It did interrupt, but I heard most of it. I think -- I'm not sure if I speak for everybody on the call, but I cut off when you're talking about propane. So I don't know if you want to continue there if you felt it's been answered.

Rick Hessling

Yes, Sam, let me just finish my thoughts on propane and then we'll continue on. So on propane, as you know, we're a large exporter and about to get a lot larger as we bring on our projects on the U.S. Gulf Coast next year. But on the propane side, we have had significant economic margins within the environment, mainly because of the demand overseas. So we've not only -- I feel really been advantageously the butane market, but propane has been a nice shot in the arm for us as well. I hope that answers your question, Sam.

Maryann Mannen

Yes. Thanks, Sam. Sorry about that. Sorry, all.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Laetsch with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Laetsch

So I wanted to just start on the refining side. So utilization came in much stronger than guidance and that we expected really across the regions during the third quarter. Can you just talk to what went right during the quarter and some of the drivers of the outperformance.

Unknown Executive

It's Mike. A few things we talked about earlier, is the investment and reliability has been key for us, not just in the Gulf Coast, but all of our value chains. With that gives us a better platform to grow from as well. But I will say we're tackling just the basics of operating really paying attention to the blocking and tackling of day-to-day operations and a lot of work around training and optimization as well. That's been a target to our utilization.

Maryann Mannen

And Joe, it's Maryann. I think the other thing that I would add, as you know, over the last several quarters, we've been talking about the opportunity across our planning, commercial and operational value chains. And I think really, we are focused on the things that we can control, looking for those opportunities and ensuring that we are able to deliver that. I thought I'd pass it maybe to Julian to see if there was anything else that he wanted to add as he's thinking through the planning side of our utilization.

Julian Stoll

Yes. Thanks, Maryann. I think our performance, as Mike said, it reflects the strength of our integrated planning commercial and operations teams and optimization can only really create value if the assets are available to run. So kudos to Mike and the team, reliability was and remains, it's the foundation upon which the capture of any commercial opportunity really depends. And we've said previously, I think our speed of analysis now, the sophistication of our tools and modeling. That's given us the ability to identify opportunities and convert it to executable sort of insights that we can pass the teams. And it's our ability now to coordinate those decisions as one integrated system that creates that durable -- differentiating resilience, I think.

Joseph Laetsch

Yes, definitely. And then maybe just looking ahead into the fourth quarter. So recognizing it's still early, the market obviously remains volatile. Can you just walk through some of the puts and takes on capture relative to 3Q? And in particular, how should we think about the benefit of wider WCS differentials like we talked about earlier, maybe changes in freight, crude backwardation, secondary product margins. And then I think you also had mentioned in the prepared remarks that there's some conversion unit maintenance. So how that factors in as well?

Maryann Mannen

Certainly, Joe. So maybe let me start with third quarter and then I'll head to fourth quarter, and then I'll let Rick give you some of the more intricate details as we're thinking about your questions on freight and WCS era. In our third quarter, we delivered capture of about 93%. And as we mentioned in the second quarter, we had some elements that we did not expect to repeat. Obviously, crude sourcing and the benefit of SPR that occurred in the second quarter were clearly tailwinds that we shared would not be able to repeat into the third quarter. I think the other headwind that we had very significant, Maria mentioned it, too, as she was sharing her remarks with all of you, was the most significant second dairy headwind that we have experienced. And that certainly played into the third quarter as well.

Having said that, if you go back and you look at the average over the time period, our third quarter averages in and about that 94%, 95% range. So just a few things to consider as we think about the third quarter's strongest really headwind coming from secondary ever in the history of the company. And then as we -- yes, year-to-date, frankly, through the third quarter, we are at capture of 101%. And then the fourth quarter is typically our strongest quarter on the things that we can absolutely control. So I'm going to pass it to Rick and he can give you some of those specific thoughts to answer your questions.

Rick Hessling

Yes, Joe. So when you look at 4Q, just a little bit of insight there, 1 month and a 3-month game here. We're seeing through -- excuse me, through October, we saw the same headwinds on secondary products. So we'll continue to watch that for the next 60 or so days. But early on, we're seeing very similar numbers that we saw in the secondary side in 3Q. I do want to make very clear 1 item, though, because I think it's not well understood. And I think it's because within the industry, our capture metrics seem to vary company by company, and we're no different or we are quite different, I should say, than others.

So I talked earlier about tailwinds on heavy sours and inland crudes. However, I want to remind you that they -- those differentials, they're referenced in our market indicator as well as backwardation as referenced in our marketing indicator.

Unlike others, they put that in their capture results. So we're a bit unique there. And I just wanted to call that out, so you're not overstating what our capture may be in any given quarter. I hope that helps answer your question, Joe.

Maryann Mannen

One other thing that I'd like to maybe just add is we talk about capture, it's clearly one of the metrics that we look at only one. But as we've stated, our objective really is to ensure that we're the most competitive in every region where we operate. And that comes through, obviously, commercial and our ability to capture those markets, hurdling the things that Rick just shared with you that are already embedded in the market metrics are planning and then obviously, our operational execution, which allows us to be the most competitive in every region where we operate over a period of time. So we hope that helps and answers your question.

Operator

The next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

I wanted to go back to the use of proceeds from this asset sale, if I could, $3.5 billion MPC, I imagine there will be some tax leakage there. But in terms of deploying that to the U.S. Gulf Coast, your kind of growth capital the past few years has been $1 billion. So it doesn't necessarily seem like all of that cash will be deployed incremental growth projects. So should we expect some of that cash to be used to defend the stock if the market turns, does it open the aperture for inorganic activity? Just a bit more color would be helpful there.

Maryann Mannen

So maybe let me start with capital allocation to the Gulf Coast. As you know, we always give you the detailed capital planning as we head into our fourth quarter call, and it will be in February this year. And of course, we will do the same with a significant amount of clarity in terms of where that capital would be deployed and the projects. You're right. We've averaged a little over $1 billion each year. And hopefully, as I tried to articulate in some of my earlier responses, we are actually seeing the benefit of that capital deployment pull-through in our results.

You're seeing it earlier this year as we saw jet demand rise in our ability to have that conversion project complete and meet that demand. I mentioned a couple of other projects that are coming online in 2027, like the DHT obviously, a little bit later in the year. There's a few Garyville projects that we think also will be incremental to the value propositions and the planning that Julian and Rick have been talking about. So yes, if we deploy more capital into the Gulf Coast, it is likely that our total capital plan for 2027, you will see higher than what you normally have seen given the opportunity that we see on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Mike talked about a few of the areas that we're planning on. We really are not intending to reduce or shrink our refining footprint, we really want to be sure that our refining footprint meets the demand, and we believe the Gulf Coast is a place where capital is warranted there. Let me pause and see if that answers the question, Jason.

Jason Gabelman

Yes. That's great. My follow-up is is on the Mid-Continent. I think Laurel is now shipping product. So just wondering to what extent you expect that to reduce seasonality and kind of the Eastern pad to Chicago market and the benefits that add to MPC?

Rick Hessling

Jason, it's Rick. So we see a significant advantage with Laurel moving East. In fact, we're going to be a significant shipper or or a significant shipper here in November, and we'll continue to ramp up through the winter months when PADD II is predominantly long. So as you know, we're uniquely positioned across PADD II and our ability to clear product is really a lifeline that we have that others don't have. And the reason is, as we've invested over the years, especially with the Midland connection, specifically to Laurel that's going to enable us to lean into that market in a big way. So we see significant advantages specifically when you look at our Canton and Catlettsburg refineries. Hope that answers your question, Jason.

Maryann Mannen

And Jason, I probably didn't completely answer your question because I think you were also talking about overall capital allocation. And so our capital allocation priorities have not changed. We continue to be committed to return capital to our shareholders via share buyback. You've seen we've built a little bit of cash in the third quarter. And again, as I mentioned earlier, depending on what you believe about the fourth quarter, but we intend to continue our capital allocation priorities and return capital via share buyback as well.

Operator

The next question comes from John Royall with Piper Sandler.

John Royall

So my first question is just another follow-up on the divestiture and specifically on the tax implications. I would imagine the sale price is well in excess of your cost basis and should we expect most of the proceeds to be taxable. Is that kind of the right way to be thinking about it? John.

Maria Khoury

Great to talk to you today, and thanks for the question. So when you think about the taxable implications from a refining perspective, you will expect that those proceeds will be taxable. From an MPLX, as you know, it's a different structure. So we have a different level of tax implications on that side. But just from a refining perspective.

John Royall

Understood. And then I guess my follow-up is on Midstream looks like a really strong quarter. And you previously talked about kind of back half loaded growth this year, which seems to be playing out. Can you just update us on how the project start-ups are phasing in from an EBITDA perspective? Or are there other drivers there driving the 3Q strength? And any expectations for 4Q?

Maryann Mannen

Certainly, yes. One of the things that we tried to share is we expected our MPLX EBITDA back half of the year, so Q3 and 4, its growth to be stronger than the first half, and that's largely because of the timing of project completions and capital that we've put to work and we have no different expectation operationally that our fourth quarter should actually be stronger than the third quarter. And I also shared earlier today on our MPLX call that we expect 2027 EBITDA growth to be stronger than we have in 2026. So fourth quarter, just to walk through a few of the projects coming online Secretary One came online earlier in 2026, and that continues its ramp. Harmon Creek III and the Marcellus came online around August of this year. That continues to ramp.

We're seeing strength in utilization in the Utica from second quarter in about 70%, moving to 80% in the third quarter, and we expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. As you look at our TITAN 1, so this is our Delaware Basin sour gas processing, we expect to see good performance there and completing the expansion to 400 a day for TITAN 2, which will be a very strong support as that ramp through 2027, that will start there as well. So there are a few of the key operational opportunities that we have across the system to see the strength in the fourth quarter.

On the call, Chris mentioned that we could have a headwind or a tailwind coming from executive compensation, and that's partly because that executive compensation is tied to the performance of the MPC stock. So as it increases or decreases, there is some mark-to-market that is necessary. But when we think about the growth on an operational basis, we feel good about the fourth quarter delivering as we said.

Operator

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.

Douglas George Blyth Leggate

Maryann, you probably want to delegate this one, but I want to ask, if I may, about gasoline we all know was in on the diesel, but utilization rates are running pretty hard. And I'm just wondering if your team has a prognosis to the extent of seasonal gasoline weakness, but more importantly, what you can do to minimize gasoline versus maximize jet and diesel within your system? And I've got a quick follow-up, please.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, certainly. I will. I'm going to look at both Julian and Rick here to give you some incremental color, one, on kind of what's happening; and two on our planning opportunities to continue to modify yield as we look at both jet and diesel versus gasoline.

Rick Hessling

Doug, I'll take maybe the first part and then pass it to Julian. One thing I don't want to be overlooked is as we're in max diesel mode as we've been predominantly all year, and lean into the diesel and jet markets, that continues to put pressure on the gas crack. And here recently, a good example of that is when you look at the S&D balances in the Mid-Con, you see that they're extremely tight. So any disruption in the Chicago market, you see outsized responses on the gas crack specifically. And we saw that were within a week or 2, we saw a $30 crack move. So I will just maybe double click on saying we are leaning in on the yields, specifically on diesel and jet, but it's also bearing fruit on the gas side. So with that, I'll pass it to Julian to give you a little more color on the yields.

Julian Stoll

Thanks, Rick. I think in terms of flexibility, Doug, historically, we've demonstrated the ability to shift roughly 4% of our product yield between gasoline and diesel. But more importantly than that, we can now respond incredibly quickly as jet and diesel economic shift, and we optimize our production and product placement accordingly. So it's part of our DNA to continuously improve and optimize the assets. And I think it really is that combination of manufacturing flexibility and the commercial optionality that enable us to respond quickly to changing market conditions and shift things around to capture opportunity as and when they arise.

Douglas George Blyth Leggate

Yes. I think that volatility argument is something that we've been focused on. So I appreciate the answers. Maryann, I apologize for this one, but I just wanted to touch on the MPC MPLX relationship, extraordinary times for MPC share price. But my question is a little different than the usual, what about the structure. It's really more about the reinvestment. Does MPLX have the opportunity set and the reinvestment capability to maintain its tax-free status and tax-free distribution. I'm just wondering if that factors into your thinking about the right affiliate relationship between those two. And I'll leave it there.

Maryann Mannen

Yes. Sure, Doug. So I'd say right now, yes, absolutely. We do not see any challenge in maintaining our tax status through the MLP, notwithstanding the structure at all, but we're confident in our ability to maintain that structure. Obviously, the things that we can control, right? I certainly don't know what an administration might choose to do. But as the current rules, if you will, and tax structure is today, no issue with us being able to do that.

Operator

The next question comes from Phillip Jungwirth with BMO.

Phillip Jungwirth

We've seen higher operating costs across the industry this quarter, but you guys respond on guidance. 4Q also looks a bit better along with the turnaround performance. So I was just hoping you could touch on how you're managing the cost side of the business just given inflation in areas where you're seeing pressure? And separately, if there's any initial read on whether 2027 could be average or above average turnaround year for MPC in the industry.

Unknown Executive

Sure. This is Mike. I will say overall, from a cost discipline standpoint has been a major focus for us. We're not in the cost cutting, we're in cost discipline. But when you invest in the reliability, like we are, we're starting to realize those benefits in '26 and in '27. So the investment side of it, I would say, the upskilling of our resources and our assets are really helping on, I would say, the cost disciplined, cost control side. Turnaround for 2027, it looks to me it's going to be a lighter year in 2027 than it was in '26. So our investments are paying off, especially around the reliability.

Maryann Mannen

And Phil, it's Maryann. I also wanted to say we maintained our turnaround plan for 2026. I think Maria talked about it as well. We did not delay, postpone any turnaround activities in 2026. Obviously, you can see we were still able to run. So our decision on 2027, as Mike just said, is the plan that we've had in place for a period of time. Discipline has been paying off for us over a period of time as we write constantly manage cost discipline. We hope that helps, Phil.

Phillip Jungwirth

No, that's great. And then recognizing it's less a factor in the Mid-Con and the Gulf Coast. So I was hoping we could just bring the whole freight rate discussion to the West Coast and see how how you're seeing market dynamics across crude sourcing, but also the cost of product imports. And if you could just separately touch on your ability to source in state crude, along with just market implications of less Jones Act waiver usage versus 2Q?

Rick Hessling

Yes, Phil, I'll start with the end. The Jones Act waivers, we've been able to lean into specifically during here at Candies while it didn't impact California specifically, but it was a big help for us in supplying the Florida market. So that's been a win for us there. Specifically, when you think of the West Coast One of the things we've been able to do is with the recent closures, we have been able to double, actually more than double our California grades that we're running at LAR. That's been a big win for us. We've also leaned in when we think West Coast fill, we also -- in our vernacular, we weave in Pacific Northwest.

And when you think of Pacific Northwest, we're actually running a lot of inland crudes over to Anacortes, Washington, specifically to give us a competitive advantage over more expensive crudes, such as ANS. And then lastly, I would say when you think of the transportation from a crude perspective. As I stated earlier, we have a significant amount of our time charters locked in at a rate significantly below the high market today. That is providing us a significant benefit. And then in terms of Asian barrels making their way over, it continues to be more and more difficult. The marker with freight is high and you continue to have supply disruptions as well, causing them to not run at full rates. So we continue to see that as a nice tailwind for our West Coast asset. I hope that helps.

Operator

Our last question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH.

Matthew Blair

Great. Maybe we could end on renewable diesel, where your results be better than expected, better than peers. Anything to highlight in the third quarter? And then so far in the fourth quarter, it looks like industry margins are are generally trending higher. Are you seeing the same thing in your system?

Rick Hessling

Yes, Matt, it's Rick. Let me start with just as with our fossil fuel refineries, our R&D plants are running and have been running really well. That's where it all starts. But in addition to that, our results were certainly supported by a more constructive margin environment, improved regulatory credit values and higher throughputs. And we're early into the fourth quarter, but we see more of the same in the fourth quarter.

Operator

And that was our last question.

Brian Worthington

Thank you for your interest in Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Should you have more questions or want clarification on topics discussed this morning, please contact us, and our team will be available to take your calls. Thank you for joining us.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. Participants, you may disconnect at this time.