CVRパートナーズ（UAN）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：1.79ドルの分配金と第4四半期の稼働率見通し

主要なポイント

• CVRパートナーズ（NYSE: UAN）が発表した2026年第3四半期決算は、売上高が1億4,600万ドル、純損失が1,100万ドル（普通投資口1口当たり1.02ドル）、EBITDAが2,000万ドルとなった。
• 取締役会は普通投資口1口当たり1.79ドルの分配金を発表した。11月16日の取引終了時点の投資主に対し、11月23日に支払われる。
• アンモニア工場の稼働率は80%となった。これは8月下旬に始まり10月に完了したイーストダビューク工場の計画定期修理（ターナラウンド）を反映している。
• UANの販売数量は合計約32万7,000トンで、平均価格は1トン当たり309ドルとなった。UANの平均価格は前年同期比で11%下落した。アンモニアの販売数量は約3万6,000トンで、1トン当たり637ドルとなり、価格は約20%上昇した。
• 経営陣は、10月に完了したイーストダビューク工場の定期修理の影響を含め、第4四半期のアンモニア稼働率を88%〜93%と予想している。
• 同社は2026年残りの期間および2027年に向けた受注残高を積み上げている。経営陣は追い風要因として、地域的な供給のひっ迫、窒素肥料価格の堅調さ、米国の天然ガスのコスト優位性を挙げた。

主要財務データ

棚卸資産および定期修理の影響を除くと、直接営業費用は2025年第3四半期から約100万ドル増加した。人件費の上昇は、電力および天然ガスの消費量減少により一部相殺された。

事業および業績の動向

イーストダビューク工場の定期修理により、当四半期の生産量と稼働率が低下した。機器の遅延により当初の計画より遅れて開始されたが、改定スケジュール通り10月に完了した。経営陣によると、次回の計画定期修理は2028年のコフィービル工場であり、今後2年間は定期修理の予定がない。

夏季の補充価格改定後、UANの価格設定は強含み、秋のアンモニア需要も堅調であった。経営陣は、コーンベルトにおけるターミナル受入能力の制限が秋のアンモニア価格を今期最高水準に押し上げたと言及した。同社は、経営陣が魅力的な価格と表現する水準で、2026年第4四半期および2027年第1四半期の受注予約を継続した。

イーストダビューク工場の定期修理期間中、CVRパートナーズは既存敷地内での生産能力拡張（ブラウンフィールド投資）および水質向上工事を完了した。同社は第4四半期中に、拡大された能力水準での持続的な操業テストを行う計画である。

コフィービル工場では、水システムの改修やディーゼル排気液（DEF）の生産・出荷能力拡張などの施策が計画されている。これらのプロジェクトは、定期修理の影響を除き、公称能力の95%超で工場を稼働させるという経営目標を支えるものである。

同社はまた、コフィービル工場における原料選択プロジェクトのエンジニアリングおよびコスト見積もりを完了しつつある。取締役会の承認を得ることを条件に、経営陣は2027年の着工を見込んでいる。本プロジェクトにより、市況価格に応じて天然ガスとサードパーティ製石油コークスの最適な混合比率で同施設を稼働できるようになる。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

2026年通期について、経営陣は維持管理投資5,500万〜6,300万ドルを含む、総設備投資額を約9,500万〜1億400万ドルと見込んでいる。

経営陣は、収益性向上および成長のための設備投資の相当部分が、過去数年間に蓄積された手元資金から調達されると見込んでいる。プロジェクトの実施および支出が増加する中、取締役会が自己資金の留保を継続する可能性があり、これが短期的には手元現金残高が高水準に維持され、変動制の四半期分配金に影響を与える可能性がある。

リスクと主な注視点

• ロシア、ウクライナ、中東を巡る紛争や、海上輸送ルートへの攻撃継続により、世界的な窒素の供給は依然として不透明である。
• 中国からの輸出品が高水準で推移する一方、中東からの供給量は緩やかに回復しており、世界的な肥料の供給可能性と価格決定に関する不透明感を生み出している。
• 欧州の天然ガス価格は1 MMBtu当たり30ドル以上に上昇しているが、米国の価格は3ドル近辺にとどまっている。経営陣は、これにより欧州のアンモニア生産コストが輸入価格を上回る状態が続いており、減産につながっていると述べた。
• 窒素肥料価格は夏の安値から回復したものの、トウモロコシ価格の下落により、肥料の価格手頃感は夏後半に比べてやや低下している。
• CVRパートナーズは変動分配金方針を採用している。分配金は業績、肥料価格、設備投資、および取締役会が決定する手元資金によって変動する可能性がある。
• コフィービル工場の原料選択プロジェクトは、最終的なエンジニアリング、コスト見積もり、および取締役会の承認を前提としている。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the CVR Partners LP Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Richard Roberts, Interim CFO and VP of [ FP&A ] and Investor Relations. Richard, please go ahead.

Richard Roberts

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's call. With me today are Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer; Mike Wright, our Chief Operating Officer; and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2026 Third Quarter Results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. .

You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2026 3rd quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC for the period.

Let me also remind you that we are a variable distribution in -- we will review our previous sales reserves, current cash usage, evaluate future anticipated cash needs and may reserve amounts for other future cash needs as determined by our general partner's Board. As a result, our distributions, if any, will vary from quarter-to-quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, operating performance, fluctuations in the prices received for finished products, capital expenditures and cash reserves being necessary or operated by the Board of Directors of our general Department. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer. Dave? .

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. The summarized financial highlights for the third quarter of 2026 include net sales of $146 million, net loss of $11 million, EBITDA of $20 million, and the Board of Directors of CVR Partners' general partner declared a third quarter distribution of $1.79 per common unit which will be paid on November 23 to unitholders of record at the close of the market on November 16.

For the third quarter of 2026, our ammonia plant utilization was 80%, which was impacted by the planned turnaround at East Dubuque that began in late August and was completed in October. Apart from the turnaround, our facilities ran well during the quarter, and we continued to see steady demand across the system after the summer price reset. Since the summer, prices have steadily increased for both ammonia and UAN, and we have a good order book for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Richard to discuss our financial results.

Richard Roberts

Thank you, Dane. Turning to our results. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported net sales of $146 million and an operating loss of $4 million. Net losses for the quarter were $11 million or $1.02 per common unit and EBITDA was $20 million. Relative to the third quarter of 2025, the decrease in EBITDA was primarily due to turn and expenses incurred in the quarter, along with lower UAN sales prices and a slight decline in sales volumes. .

Total volume production for the third quarter was 175,000 gross tons, of which 46,000 net tons were available for sale and UAN production was 294,000 tons. During the quarter, we sold approximately 327,000 tons of UAN at an average price of $309 per ton and approximately 36,000 tons of ammonia at an average price of $637 per ton. Relative to the third quarter of 2025, total sales volumes were down slightly, primarily due to reduced production volumes as a result of the CD turnaround. The reported prices for UAN decreased by 11% and ammonia prices increased approximately 20% relative to the prior year period. Direct operating expenses for the third quarter of 2026 were $90 million, including turn on expenses of approximately $27 million. Excluding inventory and turnaround impacts direct operating expenses increased by approximately $1 million relative to the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher labor costs, partially offset by lower electricity and natural gas consumption.

Capital spending for the third quarter were $75 million of which $21 million was maintenance capital. We estimate total capital spending for 2026 to be approximately $95 million to $104 million, of which $55 million to $63 million is expected to be maintenance capital. We anticipate a significant portion of the profit and growth capital spending for 2026 will be funded through cash reserves taken over the past few years. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $203 million, which consisted of $158 million in cash and availability under the ABL facility of $45 million.

Within our cash balance of $158 million, we had approximately $43 million related to customer prepayments for the future delivery of product. In assessing our cash available for distribution, we generated EBITDA of approximately $20 million and had net cash gains of approximately $1 million for interest costs, maintenance CapEx and other reserves, which includes the release of approximately $42 million of previous reverses. As a result, we are $19 million of cash available for distribution and the Board of Directors of our general partner to start distribution of $1.79 per common unit.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter 2026, we estimate our loan utilization rate to be between 88% and 93%which will be impacted by the completion of the ECB turnaround in October. We have some direct operating expenses, excluding inventory current impacts to be between $58 million and $63 million. Turn on expenses to be between $4 million and $6 million and total capital spending to be between $26 million and $34 million. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Dane.

Dane Neumann

Thanks, Richard. In summary, the third quarter was another strong 1 for our operations, apart from the planned turnaround at East Dubique. The turnaround started a few weeks later than originally planned due to some equipment delays and was completed in October, in line with the revised schedule. The next turnaround is currently planned for 2028 at Coffeyville, and we look forward to 2 years ahead with no turnaround activity. Fall ammonia application is getting underway in the Corn Belt region as the harvest progresses, and activity is expected to pick up in the Southern Plains over the next few weeks.

Demand for ammonia has been strong and limited terminal availability in the Corn Belt has pushed fall pricing to the highest levels of the season. Offshore prices are firming ahead of the November Tampa settlement, although the gap between inland and seaborne ammonia prices remains wide. For UAN, the market firmed through the third quarter after the summer fill reset. Local supply remains tight the first spring 2027 prices were posted in early October.

We have continued to build our book of business for the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2027 at attractive pricing. The ongoing conflicts in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect global nitrogen supply, including shipping through this rate or moves. Global supply remains a key variable. Chinese exports have been elevated and Middle East volumes are recovering gradually.

However, continued attacks on shipping highlight the persistent geopolitical risks impacting fertilizer availability and pricing. Our focus remains on safely and reliably running our plants at high utilization rates to meet our customers' needs. Natural gas prices in Europe have risen further since our last call to over $30 per MMBtu. That keeps ammonia production costs in Europe well above the current import prices and has led to some production curtailments. Meanwhile, U.S. nat gas prices remained near $3 per MMBtu.

We continue to believe the structural gap favors U.S. producers with access to low-cost secure feedstock. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have recovered from their summer lows, while corn prices have eased from their recent highs, although affordability is currently somewhat less favorable than it was in late summer. We believe the combination of tight local supply and constructive global balance and a solid forward book positions us well heading into the spring.

During the turnaround, we completed the brownfield capacity expansion, and we intend to test the ability to sustainably operate at the increased capacity level during the fourth quarter. We also completed the work on the water quality upgrade project. At the Coffeyville facility, we have a similar water system upgrade plan, along with the expansion of our DEF production and load-out capacity. The goal of these projects is to improve reliability and production rates, supporting our target of operating the plants at utilization rates above 95% of named capacity, excluding the impact of turnarounds.

We are in the final phases of completing detailed engineering and cost estimates for the feedstock optionality project at Coffeyville. And with approval by the Board of Directors of our general partner, we expect to proceed with construction in 2027. If completed, this initiative would make the Coffeyville facility the only nitrogen fertilizer facility in the United States with dual feedstock flexibility, providing us the ability to choose the optimal mix of natural gas and third-party pet coke depending on prevailing prices. The funds needed for these projects and other initiatives are coming from the reserves taken over the last few years and the Board elected to continue reserving capital in the third quarter.

While the Board looks at reserves every quarter, I would expect them to continue to elect to reserve some capital and we anticipate holding higher levels of cash related to these investments in the near term as we ramp up execution and spending. We believe unitholders will see the befits of these investments in the coming years as these projects are completed and brought online.

In closing, I would like to thank our employees for all their hard work during the turnaround and continuing to deliver on our marketing and logistics plans, resulting in a distribution of $1.79 per common unit for the third quarter. With that, we are ready to answer any questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have no questions at this time. I will now call back to Dane Neumann for closing remarks.

Dane Neumann

All right. Again, I would like to thank you all for your interest in CVR Partners and our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. We look forward to reviewing our fourth quarter 2026 results during our next earnings call. Have a safe day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.