ReNew (RNW) 2027年度第2四半期決算説明会：EBITDAガイダンスを上方修正

ReNew（NASDAQ: RNW）は2027年度第2四半期の決算説明会において、増益を達成し、稼働中の再生可能エネルギー・ポートフォリオを拡大させるとともに、2027年度の通期調整後EBITDAガイダンスの下限を引き上げたと発表しました。当四半期は2026年9月30日に終了した期間を対象としています。

主要なポイント

• 2027年度第2四半期の調整後EBITDAは前年同期比28%増の336億インドルピーとなり、これには第三者向け製造販売による41億インドルピーが含まれています。
• 経営陣が発表した第2四半期の税引後利益は前年同期比37.3%増の64億インドルピーでした。上半期の税引後利益は同26.2%増の124億インドルピーとなりました。
• ReNewの稼働ポートフォリオは、400 MWの資産売却分を調整後、前年同期比23%増の13.8 GWに達しました。同社は2027年度開始から9月末までに1.3 GW超を新規稼働（コミッショニング）しました。
• 同社は2027年度の調整後EBITDAガイダンスの下限を引き上げました。新しいレンジは従来の1,030億〜1,090億インドルピーから、1,050億〜1,090億インドルピーとなりました。
• 製造事業が引き続き主な収益ドライバーとなりました。外部向け製造販売による第2四半期の調整後EBITDAは41億インドルピーで、マージンは約33%でした。
• 経営陣によると、太陽光発電の出力抑制（カーテルメント）により、業績は第2四半期に約900万〜1,000万ドル、上半期に1,800万〜1,900万ドル押し下げられました。

主要財務データ

2027年度上半期の調整後EBITDAは前年同期比で約20%増の約640億インドルピーとなりました。税引後利益は26.2%増の124億インドルピーとなりました。

事業およびオペレーション実績

ReNewのコミット済みポートフォリオの総容量は、1.7 GWの蓄電池電力貯蔵システムを含めて20.5 GWとなりました。電力購入契約（PPA）に未移行の基本合意書（LOI）を含めたパイプライン全体は約27 GWにのぼります。

稼働容量は合計13.8 GWで、内訳は風力5.7 GW、太陽光7.9 GW、水力99 MW、蓄電池100 MW/250 MWhとなっています。同社は第2四半期中に628 MW、9月までの当年度累計で1.3 GW超を新規稼働しました。

産業・商業用（C&I）ポートフォリオはインドの5州にわたり2.9 GWに達し、うち2.6 GWが稼働済みです。Amazon、Microsoft、グーグルが契約済みC&I電力引取量の合計約半分を占めています。

当四半期中、製造事業では528 MWのセルと890 MWのモジュールを生産しました。外部受注残高は約3.3 GWでした。ReNewは4 GW規模のTOPConセル拡張計画が進展しており、2027年1月までに初となるセルの生産開始を見込んでいると発表しました。インゴット・ウェーハ施設の商業運転は、内部資金および外部資金調達により、2028年暦年上半期に開始される予定です。

資本再投資（キャピタル・リサイクリング）も継続しています。1 GWを超える資産と3EにおけるReNewの支配株に関わる取引により、約2億7,400万ドルのキャッシュフローが創出される見込みです。売却が完了した100 MWの太陽光資産を含めると、一連の取引により約3億ドルがもたらされる見込みであると経営陣は語りました。

経営陣の業績予想（ガイダンス）

ReNewは2027年度の連結調整後EBITDAガイダンスを、従来の1,030億〜1,090億インドルピーから1,050億〜1,090億インドルピーへと引き上げました。修正後の内訳は以下の通りです。

• 製造事業による120億〜140億インドルピー（従来の100億〜120億インドルピーから上方修正）。
• 資産売却益10億〜20億インドルピー。

同社は引き続き、2027年度中に1.6 GW〜2.4 GWの建設を見込んでいます。

20.5 GWのコミット済みポートフォリオ全体について、経営陣はランレート調整後EBITDA予想を1,340億〜1,400億インドルピー、株主向けキャッシュフロー予想を320億〜360億インドルピーに据え置きました。これらの試算は平常な天候を前提とし、製造事業の寄与を除外し、最終売却契約が締結された1 GWのプロジェクトを含んでいます。

リスクと注視事項

太陽光発電の出力抑制は、特に最近稼働を開始したプロジェクトにおいて引き続き重大なオペレーション上の逆風となりました。経営陣は影響額を第2四半期に約900万〜1,000万ドル、上半期に1,800万〜1,900万ドルと試算する一方で、その影響は鈍化しつつあると指摘しました。

モンスーンは例年より弱かったものの、風力発電所の設備利用率は前年同期から大幅に改善したと経営陣は説明しました。

追加のセル生産能力が市場に投入されるため、下半期の製造マージンは低下すると予想されています。モジュールマージンはすでに大幅に低下していますが、上半期のセルマージンは比較的堅調を維持しました。

ReNewは今後約17億ドルの債務返済期日を控えています。経営陣は、12億5,000万ドル分については調達の見通しやコミットメントを得ており、残りの金額については2027年半ばの返済期日に近づいた時点で借り換えを行う予定であると述べました。

提案されている非公開化取引は、引き続き株主承認、規制当局の承認、その他の条件を満たす必要があります。コンソーシアム以外の株主は、1株あたり7.00ドルの現金を受け取るか、所定の条件に従ってロールオーバー取り決めを通じて株式を保持することができます。ReNewは、すべての条件が満たされた場合、2027年暦年第1四半期にこのスキームが効力を発生すると予想しています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、太陽光発電の出力抑制は最近稼働した特定のプロジェクトに集中しており、救済策の可能性についてインド政府と協議を進めていると述べました。

借り換えについて同社は、約17億ドルの返済期日のうち、およそ12億5,000万ドルについてはすでにコミットメントまたは明確な資金調達の見通しが得られていると説明しました。

インドにおける太陽光発電の製造について、経営陣はセルマージンの堅調さが継続していることを強調しつつも、業界の生産能力が拡大するにつれて緩和すると予想しています。同社は、この製造事業の好調な業績が2027年度のEBITDAガイダンス引き上げを後押ししたと語りました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to ReNew's 2Q FY '27 Earnings Report. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to Anunay Shahi. Please go ahead.

Anunay Shahi

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We have put out a press release announcing results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, for the period ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and the earnings presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of ReNew's website at www.renew.com.

With me today are Sumant Sinha, our Founder, Chairman and CEO; Kailash Vaswani, CFO; and Vaishali Sinha, Co-Founder and Chairperson, Sustainability. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions.

Please note that our safe harbor statements are contained within our press release, presentation materials and materials available on our website. These statements are important and [indiscernible] to all our remarks. There are risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. So we encourage you to review the press release and the presentation on our website for a more complete description.

Also contained in our press release, presentation materials and our annual report are certain non-IFRS measures that we reconcile to the most comparable IFRS measures, and these reconciliations are also available on our website in the press release, presentation materials and our annual report.

With that, it's now my pleasure to hand it over to our Founder, Chairman and CEO, Sumant Sinha. Sumant, over to you.

Sumant Sinha

Yes. Thank you, Anunay. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everybody. I'm glad to have you all on our earnings call for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal year 2027.

The first half of this fiscal has been one of the strongest in our history. We have continued to deliver on our promise of profitable growth with strong growth in EBITDA and profit after tax, our lowest-ever receivable days, continued success in project execution and an improving leverage profile. As we had expected at the start of the year, power demand has also come back strongly, and this continues to support the long-term growth of renewable energy in India.

Turning to the highlights for the quarter on Page 6. Our operating portfolio now stands at 13.8 gigawatts, which is a 23% increase year-on-year after adjusting for the 400 megawatts of assets that we sold during the last 12 months. We have commissioned over 1.3 gigawatts so far in fiscal 2027, including 628 megawatts in the second quarter and about 2.7 gigawatts over the trailing 12 months. We have consistently delivered on our project execution over the past few years and expect the momentum to continue. Our committed portfolio is currently 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 gigawatts of BESS and our total pipeline is approximately 27 gigawatts, including LOIs, which have not yet been converted into PPAs. This is 2.7x the size of our portfolio at the time of listing about 5 years ago.

Coming to our financial performance. We continue to deliver profitable growth consistently on a year-on-year basis. In Q2 of fiscal 2027, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of INR 33.6 billion, including INR 4.1 billion from third-party sales from our manufacturing business. This is up 28% year-on-year. Our profit after tax was INR 6.4 billion, up 37.3% year-on-year. For the first half of fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA was approximately INR 64 billion, up almost 20% year-on-year, and profit after tax of INR 12.4 billion, up 26.2%. We also generated approximately INR 10.2 billion of cash flow to equity in the second quarter and more than INR 23 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027.

We have also benefited from stronger wind PLS in Q2 of fiscal 2027 compared to last year. However, on the solar side, we have continued to see some impact of rig-related curtailment. Our IPP DSO is now at 63 days, our lowest ever despite the seasonality we usually see in this high wind quarter. Our credit and leverage profile also continues to improve. Moody's has revised our outlook to Ba2 with a positive outlook from Ba2 with a negative outlook. And CARE has similarly revised our rating outlook from A to A positive.

Our manufacturing business continues to be profitable and our 4 gigawatt cell expansion is now in advanced stages with commercial operations expected to begin in the fourth quarter of this fiscal. Work is also underway on our 6.5 gigawatt [indiscernible] wafer facility, which we announced following the introduction of the ALMM-3 for wafers and which we will fund through a mix of internal accruals and external foundries.

Capital recycling also continues its momentum. In June, we closed the sale of a 100-megawatt solar asset in Tamil Nadu. In August, we signed definitive documents for the sale of over 1 gigawatt of assets, which is expected to generate around USD 190 million of cash flow. And in October of this year, we signed definitive documents for the sale of our controlling shareholding in 3E, a European renewable energy asset performance management and analytics platform, which is expected to generate another USD 84 million. Together, these transactions are expected to bring in approximately USD 300 million and once again demonstrates the quality of our assets and our ability to find buyers at attractive valuations.

On the back of this strong performance, particularly from our manufacturing business, we are raising the lower end of our fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance from INR 103 billion to INR 105 billion. The updated guidance is now INR 105 billion to INR 109 billion.

Let me now hand over to Kailash to take us through the next 2 pages. Kailash, over to you.

Kailash Vaswani

Thank you, Sumant. Turning to Page 7, an update on the take private process. As you will recall, on August 2026, the new signed a transaction agreement with the consortium comprising of CPP investments in Sumant. The acquisition will be effected through a U.K. scheme of arrangement, which is subject to award by the non-consortium shareholders. The special committee comprising of independent directors receive Rothschild's opinion that the cash offer is fair from a financial point of view to the holders of cash out shares. The committee considers the cash offer and the transaction agreement fair and reasonable and intend to unanimously recommend the shareholder vote in favor of the scheme.

JERA and Platinum Cactus A 2019, an affiliate of [indiscernible] to approximately hold 51.1% of the voting power of the shares subject to the scheme have is [indiscernible] undertaken to vote in favor of it. Under the scheme, non-consortium shareholders may receive USD 7.00 per share in cash. Alternatively, subject to certain conditions as will be laid out in the scheme document, they may like to keep their shares and remain shareholders through a rollover arrangement. On October 28, 2026, the ReNew and consortium signed a side letter, [indiscernible] the lever provisions for certain replacement awards under the new incentive plan. Otherwise, the transaction agreement is unchanged.

We continue to work towards the required regulatory approvals. The schedule 13E-3 transaction statement, including the preliminary scheme document has been filed with the SEC, and it was amended on October 28, 2026, subject to all conditions being satisfied, including regulatory approvals, we expect this scheme to become effective in the first quarter of calendar year 2027.

Turning to industry backdrop, Slide 13. Renewables continues to lead capacity addition in India. They made up of more than 85% of all power capacity added in the first half of fiscal '27, in line with recent trends. About 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity was added in the first half, including 21 gigawatts of solar, 3 gigawatt of wind and 0.7 gigawatts of hydro. As of September 30, 2026, installed renewal energy capacity, including large hydro stood at 299 gigawatt, that includes 171 gigawatt of solar and 59 gigawatts of wind capacity.

On the demand side, as we have said at the start of the year, we expect power demand to rise in fiscal 2027, helped by El Nino and a favorable pace here. Demand has been higher than last year and every month so far. Demand for the first half of fiscal '27 was up almost 10% year-on-year. Demand in October '26 compared to October '25 was up by 21%. Peak demand has already reached around 271 gigawatt in fiscal 27, which is a new high.

Supply is struggling to keep up, especially outside solar hours. On September 9, 2026, the peak demand deficit reached around 8 gigawatt and the evening deficit average 2.5 gigawatt during September. Again, in October, peak demand is up 24% year-on-year. All of this has also been reflected in rising exchange prices. This shows how important round-the-clock and storage back renewal energy capacity has become. We believe our growing BESS and RTC FDR projects puts us in a strong position to meet this need.

Turning to project execution on Slide 14. Our delivery remains derisked and on track for our annual guidance. Our operating portfolio stands at 13.8 gigawatts, including 100-megawatt or 250-megawatt hour of BESS, up 19% year-on-year, net of the 400 megawatts sold and up 23% adjusting for asset sales. In fiscal 2027 to date, we have commissioned 1.3 gigawatt comprising of 1.2 gigawatt of solar and 132-megawatt of wind capacity.

Looking ahead for solar, around 200-megawatt has been erected and is in advanced stages of commissioning. The majority of modules for the rest of the 327 execution are already at site, and the balance is secured to in-house production. For BESS 100% of pricing is locked in at attractive rates, and we are on track for this year's execution. For wind, around 300-megawatt has been erected and is in advanced stages of commissioning. And 100% of the wind turbine for the year are locked in within budgeted levels. Land is largely tied up or acquired for the next 12 months. Importantly, more than 75% of our 2.5 gigawatt committed capacity is with customers rated A+ or above. And this will continue to become higher with incremental growth largely coming from central or high-quality C&I offtakers.

Turning to our C&I business on Slide 15. We continue to have one of the largest C&I portfolios in India at 2.9 gigawatt across 5 states, of which 2.6 gigawatt is commissioned, including 330 megawatts that we commissioned so far this year. Our share of big tech and hyperscaler customers keeps increasing with Amazon, Microsoft and Google collectively accounting for about half of our contracted offtake in our C&I business. With around 10.7 gigawatt of data center capacity expected in India by 2031, representing a $20 billion market opportunity and 75 terawatt hour of power demand we believe we are well placed to participate in supplying energy to data centers.

Turning to our manufacturing business on Slide 16. Our manufacturing business continued its profitable run in this quarter as well. In Q2 of FY '27, revenue from external sales of modules and sales was around INR 12 billion and adjusted EBITDA from external sales was INR 4.1 billion compared to INR 3.3 billion in Q2 of fiscal '26, at a margin of about 33%. For the first half, adjusted EBITDA from external sales was INR 9.7 billion compared to INR 8.6 billion in Q2 fiscal '26. We produce with 528 megawatts of cells and 890 megawatts of modules during the quarter with best-in-class cell efficiency of around 23.5% and industry-leading utilization rates. Our external order book stands at approximately 3.3 gigawatts.

As a result of our continued strong performance, we've updated the annual EBITDA guidance from our manufacturing business to INR 12 billion to INR 14 billion from INR 10 billion to INR 12 billion previously. Please note that we expect around 40% to 60% of production to be used captively by our IPP business at [indiscernible] and pricing, which does not get reflected in the consolidated financials. We also continue to expect some moderation of margins in the second half of the year.

On our TOPCon expansion of 4 gigawatt cell plant, civil works and PEB works are completed the ETP and cleanroom are almost complete. All tools are on the side, printing lines are installed, and we expect to produce the first sales by Jan '27. On the Ingot-wafer plant, land and major approvals are in place. civil work has started and basing engineering is almost done. We expect commercial operations in the first half of calendar year '28 funded through internal accruals and an external fund raise.

Turning to Page 18. Our Q2 results reflect strong operating execution, continued growth in earnings and disciplined capital allocation. As of September 30, 2026, our total portfolio was approximately 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 gigawatt of BESS, operating capacity stood at 13.8 gigawatts, comprising 5.7 gigawatts of wind, 7.9 gigawatts of solar, 99-megawatt of hydro and 100-megawatt or 250-megawatt hour of BESS. We also had 6.6 gigawatt of committed capacity, including 1 gigawatt of wind 4 gigawatt of solar and 1.6 gigawatt of BESS. Since April '25, we have commissioned about 2.7 gigawatt, comprising mainly of around 2.2 gigawatts of solar, 439 megawatts of wind and 25-megawatt of BESS.

On consolidated performance for Q2 of fiscal '27, revenue was up 28% on the year, adjusted EBITDA was up 28% and PAT was up 37%. For Q2 fiscal '27, income was INR 49.6 billion, our revenue was INR 46.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA was INR 33.6 billion or $350 million and PAT was INR 9.9 billion compared to INR 5.6 billion of PAT in the same quarter last year. For the first half, revenue was up 21%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 20%, and PAT was up 26%. Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 of fiscal '27 were 82.9% for IPP, excluding 3E, 33.3% of manufacturing and 69.3% on a consolidated basis.

We remain disciplined in capital allocation and on net debt to trailing 12 months of adjusted EBITDA for operating projects has come down from -- to almost 5.3x from 5.7 at the end of last quarter. Of our net debt of INR 711.3 billion, INR 26.7 billion represents contributions from our JV partners and approximately INR 104.7 billion relates to under-construction projects, with debt partially drawn down for about 1.5 gigawatt of renewable energy, including BESS. Excluding these projects, which don't contribute to EBITDA, net debt for operational projects stands at INR 579.9 billion.

We remain committed to reducing our overall leverage and a part of our capital recycling proceeds will be used towards this. The 1 gigawatt of assets locked in under definitive agreements are expected to result in $190 million of cash flow on closing, and we expect another from the sale of our controlling shareholding in 3E. The improvement in our credit profile is also being recognized externally with positive output revisions from Moody's and CARE.

On working capital, as shown on Slide 27, our IPP DSO was 63 days as of September 2026, an improvement of 21 days year-on-year and 31 days over 2 years. and our lowest ever, helped by the INR 5.7 billion we received from under position [indiscernible] in July 2026. Manufacturing DSO was 9 days as central government counterparties became a larger part of our portfolio, more than 75% of our 20 gigawatt portfolio will be with high-quality offtakers that pay within 30 days. Our balance sheet remains robust. Cash and cash equivalents, bank balances and investments, including short and long-term investments, stood at INR 95.1 billion as of September 30, '26.

I will now hand over the call to Vaishali for ESG and sustainability update.

Vaishali Sinha

Moving to Slide 21. As global sustainability transitions from qualitative goals to rigorous operational execution, value chain reporting has become a baseline expectation for transparency and accountability. Driven by these evolving expectations, we continue to strengthen our ESG approach to enhanced nature-based disclosures and deeper supply chain engagement.

On nature, ReNew joined the task force on Nature Related Financial Disclosures, TNFD adopter community as the second India-based electric utility to do so. We completed ESG assessments for 100% of our critical suppliers for the third consecutive year with 0 suppliers classified as high risk. We also extended our engagement to Tier 2 suppliers through a pilot covering 15 value chain partners, further embedding ESG practices across our broader supply chain. ReNew further strengthened its global sustainability financials by being named among TIME's, Most Sustainable Companies in 2026, the only India-based utility company to receive this recognition.

Turning to Slide 22. We continue to make steady progress against our ESG targets. Starting with our environment commitments, we remain focused on advancing our net zero agenda. Renewable energy now accounts for nearly 36% of our manufacturing businesses electricity consumption. We have also published a transition plan aligned with renewals PTI validated net zero 2040 ambition.

[indiscernible] inclusive energy transition must create opportunities not only for the planet, but also for the people and communities at its heart. Our community initiatives have now positively impacted more than 2 million lives. Under Project Surya, 532 women have been trained as solar technicians with 115 successfully placed. Women currently represent 18.07% of our workforce, while board diversity stands at 22%. Our ESG performance also continues to be reflected in strong external ratings. We are currently awaiting results from ESG ratings for 2026 and will disclose progress across all ratings in our upcoming meetings.

I will now turn it over to Kailash to gave us through some guidance.

Kailash Vaswani

Thank you, shale. Turning to guidance on Page 24, backed by the strong performance in the first half, including from our manufacturing businesses we are raising the lower end of our fiscal '27 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance from INR 103 billion to INR 105 billion, taking the range to INR 105 billion to INR 109 billion. This now includes INR 12 billion to INR 14 billion from manufacturing, up from INR 10 billion to INR 12 billion earlier and INR 1 billion to INR 2 billion from asset sales gains. We continue to expect to construct between 1.6 to 2.4 gigawatt during fiscal '27 and to generate cash flow to equity of INR 18 crores to INR 22 billion.

For the total committed portfolio of 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 of BESS, we continue to expect run rate adjusted EBITDA of INR 134 billion to INR 140 billion and cash flow of equity of INR 32 billion to INR 36 billion, assuming normal weather patterns and excluding contribution from our manufacturing business. Please note that this includes the 1 gigawatt of projects for which we have signed definite agreements to sell.

With that, we will be happy to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Anunay Shahi

Operator, I think if we don't have any questions on the phone. We have 1 question through the webcast link.

Operator

Certainly, sorry. Should I go ahead?

Anunay Shahi

Yes, you can go ahead.

Operator

Yes. So the question is, and I'll read it out is, can you quantify what the impact of curtailment has been this year? And can you also comment on how the monsoon has been this year? And how do you see this impacting the company? And if you could expand on how you plan to fund the upcoming debt maturities.

Sumant Sinha

Maybe I can take the first part of the question. And Kailash will handle the rest. So on curtailment, so there has been some impact of curtailment on our solar projects. So this quarter, the impact was close to around $9 million to $10 million on account of TGMA, for some of our recently commissioned solar projects. And for the full half year, it is around $18 million to $19 million. Having said that, it is slowing over the course of the year. And as you -- as some of you may have read, there are also [indiscernible] under discussion with the government of India, if they can provide some relief for it, but that's the quantum of impact this year.

With respect to monsoon, while the monsoon has been weaker. Having said that, our wind PLS this year have been significantly better than what they were last year. Kailash?

Kailash Vaswani

Yes. And of the maturities, which are coming up of almost around including some other debt, which is not in the form of bonds, our total maturities are almost $1.7 billion. Of that, currently, we have a full line of sight of on $1.25 billion, so that we've already bought commitments in place and the balance is something which is due in the middle of next year, which we will refinance closer to the date.

Anunay Shahi

I think there's one more question from Maheep Mandloi of Mizuho. The question is, how do you think about India manufacturing next year?

I guess the reference is to how the manufacturing sector as a whole is doing. So Maheep, as we have also highlighted in our presentation, we currently have module -- operating module and cell capacity. So while the margins on the module side of things have reduced significantly, but we are seeing reasonable margins and strong margins on the cell business this year as well, at least so far. While we do expect some moderation going forward as more cell capacity comes online. But we are -- so far, at least, we're seeing strong margins given, and that's what's been reflected in our manufacturing results as well, which is where the EBITDA has grown compared to last year.

If there are no further questions, operator, we can close the call.

Operator

Certainly, we do not have any questions on the audio at this time. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.