MPLX 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EBITDAは5%増、分配金を12.5%引き上げ

主な要点

• MPLXが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは19億ドルとなり、前年同期比5%増加しました。2025年後半のロッキーズ事業売却の影響を除いた調整後EBITDAは7.3%増加しました。
• 同パートナーシップは四半期分配金を3年連続で12.5%引き上げ、年換算分配金は1ユニットあたり4.84ドルとなりました。当四半期中に約11億ドルがユニットホルダーに還元されました。
• MPLXは、マラソン・ペトロリアムのセントポール・パーク製油所およびマンダン製油所を支援するミッドストリーム資産を7億5,000万ドルで売却すると発表しました。本取引の調整後EBITDA倍率は約9倍となります。
• 集荷量と処理量はそれぞれ14%増、5%増となりました。マーセラスおよびユーティカ鉱区での堅調な活動に支えられ、北東部の処理設備稼働率は93%に達しました。
• MPLXの2026年オーガニック成長資本投資計画（総額29億ドル）の90%以上が、天然ガスおよびNGLインフラに充当されています。
• 経営陣は引き続き一貫した1桁台半ばの調整後EBITDA成長を目標としており、資産売却に伴う逆風があるものの、2027年の調整後EBITDA成長率は2026年を上回ると見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および営業業績

原油・石油製品ロジスティクス部門の調整後EBITDAは、2025年第3四半期から6,700万ドル増加しました。料率引き上げとブタンブレンディングの増加が、営業費用の増加分を上回る形で一部相殺しました。ターミナル処理量は、主に出荷（輸出）量の増加により6%増加しました。

天然ガス・NGLサービス部門の調整後EBITDAは2,600万ドル増加しました。ユーティカ、マーセラス、パーミアンの各鉱区における生産者の活発な活動を背景に、集荷量は14%増加しました。処理量はユーティカでの生産増とマーセラスおよびパーミアンでの新規設備の稼働開始に伴い5%増加しました。

ユーティカでの集荷量と処理量は、それぞれ19%増、20%増となりました。ユーティカの処理設備稼働率は第2四半期の73%から第3四半期には89%に上昇し、北東部全体の処理システム稼働率は93%に達しました。

ハーモン・クリークIIIが稼働を開始し、日量3億立方フィートのガス処理能力と日量4万バレルの脱エタン能力を備えました。これにより、MPLXの北東部における処理能力は日量81億立方フィートに、分別処理能力は日量80万バレルに拡大しました。

パーミアン鉱区では、タイタン施設におけるサワーガス処理量が平均で日量1億5,000万立方フィートを超えました。MPLXは同複合施設の能力を年内に日量4億立方フィート超へと拡張中であり、タイタンIIは2027年中に本格稼働する見込みです。

MPLXとそのパートナーは、ソリチュード・パイプライン・システムに関する最終投資決定に達しました。本プロジェクトは、パーミアンからの天然ガス搬出能力を日量45億立方フィート追加する設計となっており、2029年後半に稼働開始予定です。これにより、パーミアンの長距離パイプライン能力におけるMPLXの権益分は、日量110億立方フィートから約160億立方フィートに増加します。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、直近で完了したプロジェクトの稼働拡大が続くことから、2026年第4四半期の調整後EBITDAは第3四半期から増加すると予想しています。寄与要因には、セクレタリー・ワン、ハーモン・クリークIII、ユーティカでの稼働率向上、およびブラックコムの全面商業運転開始見込みが含まれます。

ベイ・ランナー・パイプラインは第4四半期に稼働開始予定で、2027年にかけて取扱量が拡大する見通しです。バンゴ・パイプラインの拡張も第4四半期に予定されており、NGL搬出能力が日量25万バレルから30万バレルへと拡大します。

経営陣は、セントポール・パークおよびマンダンのミッドストリーム資産売却に伴うEBITDA喪失を考慮した後でも、ポートフォリオ全体で2027年に2026年を上回る調整後EBITDA成長を達成すると見込んでいます。MPLXは引き続き、1桁台半ばの調整後EBITDA成長と年間分配金カバー率約1.3倍を目標としています。

同社は2027年に分配可能キャッシュフローの伸びを上回る大幅な分配増額を見込んでいますが、経営陣は資産売却の影響により再び12.5%の増額を行うことには影響が出る可能性があることも認めています。

メキシコ湾岸におけるMPLX初の能力日量15万バレルの分別施設、関連する製品専用パイプライン、および能力日量40万バレルの合弁LPG輸出施設は、引き続き2028年前半に稼働予定です。2つ目の日量15万バレル規模の分別施設は2029年に予定されています。

経営陣は、主要なオーガニックプロジェクトへの前倒し投資を経て、2027年の資本的支出は2026年を下回る可能性が高いことを示しました。長期的には、MPLXの事業基盤拡大に伴い必要な投資額が増大する可能性があり、年間の支出は直線的なパターンをたどらない可能性があります。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 7億5,000万ドルの資産売却は、以前の事業目標設定時には考慮されていなかった2027年EBITDAの逆風要因となります。
• インセンティブ報酬費用の増加により、年初来の調整後EBITDA成長率は約1ポイント押し下げられました。経営陣は、業績指標次第で報酬費用が引き続き逆風にも追い風にもなり得ると述べています。
• 経営陣は、資産売却により2027年に12.5%の分配金増額を再実行する能力が制限される可能性があることを認めました。
• アナリストからは、2030年にかけてパーミアンのパイプライン能力が過剰になる可能性について懸念が示されました。経営陣は荷主によるコミットメントやLNG、発電、データセンターからの需要を挙げつつ、引き続き資本規律を徹底することを強調しました。
• アパラチアにおける顧客企業の統合は、今後の商業交渉に影響を与える可能性があります。MPLXは、同社の契約には堅固な長期コミットメントおよび敷地専属契約が含まれており、EQTとレンジの統合による悪影響は予想していないと述べました。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣によると、タイタンIIは2026年末までに完成し、2027年中にタイタン施設全体の能力である日量4億立方フィート超に向けて拡大を開始する見込みです。タイタンIはすでに日量1億5,000万立方フィート超を処理しています。

資本の再配分について、MPLXは資産売却による手元資金が貸借対照表を強化し、オーガニック投資と買収の両面で柔軟性をもたらすと述べました。買収候補案件は、同社の井口から輸出ターミナルまでの統合戦略（wellhead-to-water戦略）を支援し、パーミアン、マーセラス、ユーティカでの優先方針に合致し、10%台半ばのリターン閾値を満たす必要があります。

経営陣は、マラソン・ペトロリアムとの関係は戦略的に重要であり、双方とも契約を更新する意向があると説明しました。MPLXは通常、契約満了の12〜18カ月前に再契約の評価を開始します。

ユニットの自社買いは、安全で信頼性の高い操業、分配金の増加、成長資本投資に次ぐ、MPLXの資本配分方針における最終優先事項にとどまります。経営陣は、自社買いによって分配金カバー率を大幅に改善するには多額の支出が必要であり、現時点ではその目的での自社買いは検討していないと述べました。

北東部において、MPLXはパイプラインのループ増設、圧縮機の追加、プラントのボトルネック解消を順次計画しています。経営陣はジャストインタイム型の投資モデルを採用しており、稼働率が90%台前半から半ばに近づいた段階でエンジニアリング作業を開始し、資本を投入する前に敷地専属契約や将来の取扱量の見通しを確保していると述べました。

決算説明会全文文字起こし

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Welcome to the MPLX Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. My name is Julie, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to Brian Worthington. Brian, you may begin.

Brian Worthington

Welcome to MPLX's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at mplx.com under the Investors tab. Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, President and CEO; Kris Hagedorn, CFO; and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our filings with the SEC.

With that, I will turn the call over to Maryann.

Maryann Mannen

Thanks, Brian. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Effective November 1, 2 new independent directors joined the MPLX Board, Michael Dunn and Bruce Niemeyer have strong records of accomplishment in the energy industry, making them outstanding additions, and we're happy to have them join our Board. Delivering on our commitments to return capital, MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the third consecutive year. The increase is supported by our multiyear track record of delivering mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and growth projects coming online over the next several years.

Additionally, this increase reflects conviction in the durability of our cash flows and execution of our strategy. MPLX's distribution now equates to an annualized rate of $4.84 per unit. And as also announced this morning, in conjunction with Marathon Petroleum sale of the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries, MPLX announced the divestiture of midstream assets supporting these refineries for $750 million, representing an EBITDA multiple of approximately 9x. Ensuring the competitive positioning of our portfolio is a strategic commitment, and we expect to redeploy proceeds from the sale to advance MPLX growth plans are in the Permian and Marcellus basins.

In the third quarter, MPLX delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, reflecting 5% growth versus the same period in 2025 -- excluding the impact of the Rockies divestiture in late 2025, MPLX adjusted EBITDA would have grown 7.3% year-over-year for the third quarter. Strong execution across our business and continued progress on the growth strategies across our integrated natural gas and NGL value chains enabled a return of approximately $1.1 billion to our unitholders. During the quarter, the Harmon Creek III complex began operations with 300 million cubic feet per day of gas processing and 40,000 barrels per day of de-ethanization capacity, increasing our Northeast to 8.1 billion cubic feet per day and fractionation capacity to 800,000 barrels a day.

As we continue placing high-return projects into service and increasing utilization across our system, MPLX remains positioned to deliver durable mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. Natural gas and NGL fundamentals are robust, creating compelling opportunities to support increasing domestic and global demand for U.S. energy. Growing producer activity increasing demand for natural gas-fired power generation and expanding access to global markets support continued investment across our integrated value chains. Our disciplined capital allocation framework remains unchanged. Investments must provide strategic fit, durable demand and attractive risk-adjusted returns.

In the third quarter, MPLX and its joint venture partners announced the FID of the Solitude pipeline system, which, when completed, will provide an additional 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas egress from the Permian Basin. Solitude was 1 of the fastest projects to reach FID in the company's history with strong long-term contracts from shippers bringing the project from commercial to FID in under 90 days supporting our view of long-term production growth in the Permian Basin. Solitude increases MPLX's interest in Permian natural gas long-haul pipeline capacity from 11 billion cubic feet per day to approximately 16 billion cubic feet per day and is expected in service in late 2029.

MPLX is investing over 90% of its $2.9 billion organic growth capital program for 2026 toward natural gas and NGL infrastructure opportunities. Our growth towards the end of the year is supported by this capital investment and efforts to optimize operations. Secretary at One and Harmon Creek II have been increasing throughputs since being placed into service. We see opportunities to further increase processing utilization in the Marcellus Basin and in the Utica, where utilization rose from 73% in the second quarter to 89% in the third quarter. We also anticipate ramping additional sour gas throughput on our Titan 1 plant, which is running at over 150 million cubic feet per day. In addition to these efforts, we are advancing several projects that support our integrated value chain into 2027. The Bay runner pipeline is expected to be placed into service in the fourth quarter, providing additional access to LNG export infrastructure along the Gulf Coast.

We expect volumes to ramp through 2027 to support the end users commissioning and scaling demand. Additionally, the Bango pipeline expansion is expected to come online in the fourth quarter, increasing capacity from 250,000 barrels per day to 300,000 barrels per day and providing additional NGL takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin. The Blackcomb natural gas pipeline began commissioning activities in July. The JV partners continue to progress the pipeline as planned, and Blackcomb is expected to achieve full commercial service in the fourth quarter. In the Delaware Basin, construction is progressing to expand sour gas treating capacity at the Titan complex to over 400 million cubic feet per day expected by year-end. New pipeline connectivity was placed into service between our Titan sour gas complex and our Delaware Basin processing footprint, further enhancing our ability to optimize volumes across our integrated Permian system.

We expect these growth platforms to position MPLX for strong adjusted EBITDA growth in 2027. Our Gulf Coast fractionation and export facilities continue to progress on schedule and on budget. We expect the first 150,000 barrel per day fractionator associated purity pipeline and our 400,000 barrel per day joint venture LPG export facility to enter service in the first half of 2028. Furthermore, the second 150,000 barrel per day fractionator remains scheduled to begin operations in 2029. Through these investments, MPLX continues to strengthen its integrated wellhead-to-water strategy while positioning the partnership to generate durable cash flow growth.

Let me turn the call over to Kris to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter.

Carl Hagedorn

Thanks, Maryann. Slide 8 outlines third quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our crude oil and Products Logistics segment. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased $67 million when compared to the third quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily driven by higher rates across the business units and increased butane blending partially offset by higher operating expenses, including incentive compensation.

Terminal throughput increased 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher export volumes. Moving on to Slide 9. Segment adjusted EBITDA and our natural gas and NGL Services segment increased $26 million compared to the third quarter of 2025. The increase was driven by higher volumes, including growth from acquisitions, partially offset by the divestiture of noncore gathering and processing assets in 2025 and higher operating expenses, including incentive compensation. Excluding the impacts of the Rockies divestiture, our natural gas and NGL Services segment adjusted EBITDA has grown 10% year-over-year for the third quarter. Gathering volumes increased 14% year-over-year, driven by strong producer activity across the Utica, Marcellus and Permian Basins. Processing volumes were up 5% year-over-year due to increased production in the Utica and additional processing capacity entering service in the Marcellus and Permian Basins.

Utica gathering and processing volumes rose 19% and 20% year-over-year and remain an area where we anticipate strong producer activity. Our Northeast processing system operated at an impressive 93% utilization in the third quarter, demonstrating the strength of producer activity in the Marcellus and Utica. In the Permian, increased utilization at Secretary One and growing demand, moving through Bango further demonstrates the value of our integrated value chain strategy.

Sour gas treating volumes averaged over 150 million cubic feet per day during the quarter as we continue progressing towards over 400 million cubic feet per day to capacity at Titan by year-end. As additional projects enter service, we remain well positioned to support growing producer activity. The quarter included $77 million of expense associated with incentive compensation, $37 million higher than the third quarter of 2025. Year-to-date, these expenses totaled $167 million, which is $48 million higher than the same time frame last year, impacting our adjusted EBITDA growth by approximately 1% for the year. The increase was driven by charges to the partnership for annual bonus and long-term incentive compensation programs. The programs are a combination of financial and other metrics that include performance relative to peers and linked to its strategic partner, Marathon Petroleum.

Looking ahead, MPLX remains positioned to deliver second half weighted adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026, underpinned by investment ramp investments that are ramping through the balance of the year. While we expect these investments to generate modest cash flow in 2026, we are well positioned to accelerate cash flow growth throughout 2027.

Lastly, we do not expect the sale of the midstream assets associated with the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries to impact our ability to deliver mid-single-digit growth.

Now let me hand it back to Maryann for some concluding thoughts.

Maryann Mannen

Thanks, Kris. MPLX is executing its strategy with consistency and discipline. Our priorities remain unchanged, operate safely and reliably, grow through high-return investments optimize integrated value chains and returning capital to unitholders. The durability of our cash flows enabled us to increase our quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the third consecutive year. This increase marks the fifth consecutive year of double-digit increases resulting in annualized base distribution growth of greater than 70% over the past 5 years. The divestiture announced today currently presents a headwind to 2027 that was not initially contemplated when other operational metrics were established. We still believe we can deliver mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and are comfortable with annual distribution coverage of 1.3x.

We acknowledge that another year of 12.5% distribution growth may be impacted by the loss of this EBITDA, and we still expect a significant distribution increase in 2027 greater than distributable cash flow growth. In addition to the strong set of organic projects we are developing, we continue with evaluating inorganic opportunities. Our announced divestiture provides an additional $750 million for growth and we remain committed to deploying capital to opportunities that are strategic and deliver strong returns underpinned by the optimization of our value chains and increasing utilization across recently completed investments, MPLX remains on track to deliver durable mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and we expect even greater EBITDA growth in 2027. Our strategic investments, financial flexibility and strong relationship with MPC continue to differentiate MPLX and support long-term value creation.

Now let me turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Worthington

Thanks, Maryann. As we open the call for your questions, as a courtesy to all participants, we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question and a follow-up. If time permits, we will reprompt for additional questions. We will now open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

質疑応答

John Mackay

Maryann, maybe I'll pick up on kind of the end of your closing remarks there. You guys have been talking a lot about confidence in the second half over first half EBITDA ramp -- maybe just a little more color you can share there and kind of specifically whether you'd expect the Titan expansion to contribute in the fourth quarter?

And then any -- not to ask for too much, but kind of any incremental color you want to give on '27 over '26. I know you sound constructive on it, but maybe any incremental detail, we'd appreciate it.

Maryann Mannen

Thanks for the questions. So let me take the first part, which is the ramp first half to the second half. We have been indicating for the last several quarters that the back half of our year, second half of 2026, -- we expected that growth to be stronger than the first half of the year given the timing of project completions, et cetera. And we remain confident, frankly, in the fact that the fourth quarter we'll see incremental growth over the third.

Let me talk a little bit about why we see that, and then I'll talk about 27 for a bit. As I mentioned even in my prepared remarks, we've got Secretary at 1 continuing to ramp Harmon Creek III that came online in the middle of the year just in the third quarter. It continues to ramp into the fourth quarter as well. We're also seeing opportunity to increase Utica processing utilization. I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it rose from 73% in the second quarter to 89% in the third, and we still see opportunity there. Ramping on additional sour gas through our Titan 1 plant. I think the question you asked is whether or not TITAN I would see any incremental volumes? And the answer is no. We expect TITAN 2 to complete at the end of this year, and it will begin its ramp to 400 in 2027.

But certainly, Titan 1 operating well -- as a matter of fact, Greg, Kris and I had the opportunity to visit the Titan facility just a few weeks ago and experience, really, the progress on that asset as well, quite pleased with where we stand and confident in the team's ability to get that TITAN 2 completed by the end of the year.

Then we've got Black home pipeline that began its commissioning in July and that's expected to achieve full commercial service in the fourth quarter as well and then bang, the NGL pipeline, $300 to $400 million in the fourth quarter. So again, we feel pretty confident about that.

And then for 2027, even with the loss of the EBIT from the assets associated with MPC sale, we still expect 2027 EBITDA growth to be stronger than 2026 as many of the projects that we were talking about begin to come into service again. The 1 thing I want to pass to Kris, we talked a little bit about the compensation expense -- and that could be a headwind or a tailwind. Kris talked about it in his remarks, but I just wanted to give him a second to talk about that as well, and then I'll come back in the event you have any other follow-ups.

Carl Hagedorn

John, just to elaborate a little bit on what I had in my prepared remarks, emphasizing 2 numbers. When you look at third quarter and you look Q-over-Q versus 2025, our expense was $37 million higher this year than it was in prior year associated with these long-term incentive compensation programs. When you look at 3Q year-to-date versus prior year Q to date, it's about $4 higher than the 2025 year-to-date numbers. So thinking about going to our proxy like information filed in our 10-K, we know that MPLX doesn't really have employees instead, MPC employees are used to serve MPLX arrangements.

And then there's a reimbursement associated with that. That compensation program that all employees participate in is tied to certain financial metrics, but also metrics that are so your first part of your question, John?

John Mackay

No, that's great color. Maybe just a second 1 for me. We obviously saw the joint sale today. Just curious if, Maryann, you can touch on kind of how you see the MPC, MPLX relationship kind of progressing from here? Can you did a joint sale? Could you do a joint acquisition at some point? And then we had some recontracting coming up in early '28. So maybe just kind of pull that into sharing your general thoughts on the state of things.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, sure. Thank you for the follow-up, John. The relationship with MPC and MPLX remains very strong, strategically important, a lot of value there. The decision for MPC to sell the Mandan and St. Paul Park, obviously, resulted in the loss of some EBITDA for MPLX but we remain committed to the basins that we talk about, Permian, Marcellus, our nat gas, NGL strengths and then obviously, Utica increasing our utilization there. These remain strongholds in our growth portfolio. We're confident in the portfolio that we have today.

In terms of the recontracting, I see no reason why MPC and MPLX would not recontract. As you know, we typically look at this 12 to 18 months out. But it would be MPLX and MPC's intent to obviously re-up those contracts. So no change in that strategic relationship at all, John.

Operator

The next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.

Manav Gupta

I'm going to cheat a little here. I'm going to ask a question, which I should be asking on the other call, but I'm reasonably sure somebody else might beat me to it. So I'm going to ask you a question why Minnesota and not Dakota refineries. Why were those to not core to MPC? Why was the decision to move ahead with that divestiture along with those midstream assets.

Maryann Mannen

Sure.. So first of all, I want to thank all of the employees of MPC and MPLX critically important. These employees have continued to run all of our assets safely and reliably and we'll continue to do so throughout the rest of the year before that sale occurs. You may remember maybe as far back as August of 2024. One of the messages that I wanted to be sure that I and the rest of the leadership team continue to convey was our commitment to ensure that we had the appropriate portfolio, both at MPC and MPLX for today and the appropriate portfolio for the future. Looking at demand strength, opportunities, et cetera. We felt at this juncture, given the opportunities that we saw and what we believe to be a good valuation and the fact that we were selling to a company that we believed would take good care of the employees and the assets that the proceeds from that could be redeployed to continue to ensure that the portfolio for the future was optimized in an even better fashion than we were currently optimizing today.

So that would be the reason why we made that decision. I hope that helps.

Manav Gupta

Perfect. My second question is, we have seen some of your peers buy our assets out there, M&A market has been hot I'm trying to understand, is it more a function of the asset package that came in did not fit the MPLX profile? Or was it -- do you think the prices that were out there were a little too high for MPC to make those acquisitions and make the maths fully work? If you could talk a little bit about that.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, certainly. I would say, across both NBC and MPLX -- we continue to look at M&A opportunities that fit our strategic intent, right? They must be able to deliver the value proposition that we have shared with our unitholders and our shareholders. So when you look at the opportunities that we would be evaluating for MPLX, we want to be sure that wellhead to water, our growth of our Permian footprint and the importance of NGL is a strong area of consideration for us. Of course, looking at the utilization in the Utica and obviously, our Marcellus basin as well. We also need to be sure, particularly as we're looking at this, that they fit our returns profiles. In the case of MPLX b, we've said mid-teens returns are critical.

And these opportunities must also be able to deliver our mid-single-digit returns. We will be very disciplined in ensuring that when we put capital to work, both organically and inorganically that we meet those objectives. And that would be on of why I would say whether we have or have not transacted here in the recent past.

Operator

The next question comes from Doug Irwin with Citi.

Douglas Irwin

Tim, thanks for the question. Maybe a little bit of a follow-up to Manav's line of question there. Just on the asset sale, curious how quickly you expect to able to redeploy those proceeds and then should we be thinking about the target there as being more organic growth or M&A or maybe a mix of both as far as how you cycle those proceeds?

Maryann Mannen

Yes, certainly. Thanks for the question. So just on the proceeds from the sale of these assets, we think, one, it strengthens our balance sheet position and continues to give us flexibility while we have not talked about our 2027 capital yet, we'll obviously do that on the next earnings call. As you can imagine, there are projects that we are completing our 2 fractionators and our export dock. As a matter of fact, Sean and I were just out there a few weeks ago seeing the progress there. And as I mentioned in my remarks, that will be ready for operations, lease frac 1 in the export dock, no later than 2028.

The completion of TITAN 2 is happening this year. We've got Traverse for 2027. The second fractionator at our Texas City will also be done we've got our Marcellus gathering expansion that will be complete in the first half of '28. IGR pipeline, solid that we just announced and Secretariat. So these are all projects that are currently ongoing. And again, we don't expect 2027 capital to be stronger at this point than what we saw in 2026. As you know, we actually accelerated some, but we'll look to deploy those proceeds as quickly as we can on organic or inorganic opportunities. as we see fit that meets that criteria. I hope that helps, Doug.

Douglas Irwin

Great. Yes, that's helpful. And maybe a follow-up on the asset sale again. You've now announced 2 fairly sizable asset sales in each of the last 2 years. I guess, do you view these as more opportunistic? Or are they maybe kind of part of a broader plan to keep coring up your footprint here around the Northeast.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, I'd say it this way. When you look at the Rockies, as we shared when we decided to do that divestiture we felt that those assets were better placed in the hands of those who had a different capital allocation strategy to those assets, and we wanted to deploy funding their -- funding from that into nat gas and NGL as you have seen us do. In the case of this particular sale, this was really the result of MPC's decision to monetize and to sell those 2 assets -- so really perhaps different rationale. We continue to say that Permian, Marcellus are critical basins for us almost 90%, frankly, of our capital as being put to work in nat gas and NGL.

I mentioned actually in my remarks the speed at which the Solitude pipeline got FID-ed. So these are places where we see particularly when you look at the demand pull coming from LNG, et cetera, places where we see opportunities. Having said that, we are quite pleased with the MPLX asset portfolio. It is operating well. All of our assets are cash flow positive as are the basins where we operate -- and so we remain pleased with the portfolio as it exists today.

Operator

The next question comes from Gabe Dowd.

Unknown Analyst

And Maryann was hoping we could maybe just get your perspective on the large Appalachian M&A on the E&P side last week. Just curious how that transaction could maybe impact the business moving forward since it did include 1 of your key customers.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, thanks for the question. First and foremost, I'd say when we look at EQT and range, both of these are long-term existing customers of MPLX with whom we believe we maintain very strong relationships. And frankly, we are absolutely looking forward to continuing to work collectively on that combined set of assets. We don't typically discuss any of the specific terms of our customer contracts. But we can share that we've got durable long-term commitments and strong acreage dedications that extend largely over a decade from 1 of those customers. And we don't expect really to be negatively impacted by the combination. We MPLX strive to be the midstream company of choice to support our producer goals and customers. But anyway, let me pass it to Greg. Greg's got deep customer relationships as well, and he can share a little bit more with respect to the insights in that combination.

Gregory Floerke

Yes. Thanks, Maryann. Gabe, we're -- we were in the very beginning with Range in the Marcellus. I'm proud to say, and we've grown over that goes back almost 20 years. EQT, same 15-year relationship or a little over that. So as we build out the Marcellus and created the position, the integrated position we have with C3+ ethane purity pipelines, all interconnected to third parties. We build out a system that's integrated. And then both of these customers are part of that.

So as we've continued to build out our Liberty gathering system in Washington County that we're going to be expanding along with majors Bill. That sort of ties into the Harmon Creek 3 expansion, our Houston plants, our fractionator and the entire integrated system. So we're running at 93%, 94% even after the Harmon Creek II plant came online, which is our largest yet built. So we continue to have opportunities to grow here, and these are 2 key customers for us that we hope to continue to do that with.

Unknown Analyst

That's helpful. And then a follow-up, given your position on the Permian egress side of things, could you maybe give us your updated thoughts around supply against the expected capacity that should show up by 2030 or so. I think there's pretty close to 20 Bs a day that could come on from an incremental egress standpoint by 2030 versus the supply expectation of just maybe 7 to 8 Bcf a day of growth by then. So can you maybe just talk to the mismatch and are the volume expectations just simply too low will the basin be long pipe for maybe a short period of time? Would love to get your thoughts on that.

Maryann Mannen

Yes, sure, Gabe. I'm going to ask Dave to give you some thoughts, and then I'll come back there with any other follow-up that you might have.

David Heppner

Gabe, great question. So let me step back a little bit. And we've been participating in this basin on egress pipelines for almost 10 years now. And as Maryann's comments stated, we're participating in 6 long-haul pipes now with the most recent being solid recently announced. So moving almost 16 Bcf a day out of the pipe. So your comments are spot on. But as Marianne touched on was Solitude, that pipe was the fastest FID of any of the 6 pipes out of the basin, whether it be to Agile or to Katie. So we're seeing continued strong shipper demand, customer demand in that.

And the other interesting part about Solitude is our partners, all these pipelines are multipartner, as you know, and the partner mix from not only midstream or the producers in the salt pipeline kind of gives you a little bit of view of of how people are thinking about the necessity for capacity going forward. So as we think about it and looking forward, whether it be driven by data centers, power demand generation, but more specifically in the U.S. Gulf Coast by LNG, we continue to see the demand and the need and we see strong customer support and commitment to these long-haul pipes coming out of the basin.

So as we look forward, we will continue through the lens of strict capital discipline, participate in the basin, whether it be in basin G&P with Greg and his team or purchase these long-haul pipelines to get the gas out of the basin into the customers that are actually pulling and wanting the demand there. So we see a strong outlook there. Hopefully, that helps.

Operator

The next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley

I appreciate the flexibility on the distribution growth next year. I think it's a prudent move given the asset sale -- the -- you still noted you intend to raise the distribution faster than DCF growth next year. I'm curious if as part of that you'd consider a larger increase in buybacks as a lever that you could use to reduce the unit count and improve your coverage and allow for faster distribution growth if organic growth opportunities don't materialize.

Maryann Mannen

Keith, it's Maryann. Thanks for the question and appreciate your color there. I'm going to pass it to Kris to talk a little bit about buyback and your question, and then I can take any follow-up that you might have.

Carl Hagedorn

Keith, and I know you've done the math. But what I would tell you is, first and foremost, our capital allocation strategy is really unchanged. So when you think about us maintaining safe, reliable operations, then distribution growth, then growth capital -- and then your unit buybacks being the last consideration for return of capital to our unitholders. -- that's unchanged. And when you think about buybacks as a tool to help with coverage ratio, it's really -- it takes a lot of money to move that dial as I kind of opened with. So that's not -- it's something that we look at, but it's not something that we've considered at this point.

Keith Stanley

Understood. That makes sense. Second one, and I apologize in advance for revisiting it. But -- on the whole affiliate relationship, it's pretty shocking just the performance difference between MPC and MPLX this year and obviously, market conditions are driving that. NBC is $12 billion of cash at the MPC level you're selling another $3 billion of assets, you have a lot of free cash flow the rest of the next few quarters. Would the MPLX public float is only $22 billion -- is there any consideration at all to using this unique period of time to simplify the structure and consider maybe buying an MPLX? It would just seem like if you were ever going to do it, this could be the time to do it? Or is it just something you want to keep permanently out there?

Maryann Mannen

Keith. I'm happy to address the question. So as I've mentioned before, we continue to believe that MPC and MPLX, the strategic focus, the relationship is critically important. Having said that, we recognize that our objective with respect to the unitholders of MPLX and the shareholders of MPC is to ensure that we are providing and creating via structure and all other capital allocation that we do that we are creating the optimum value creation for both of those organizations. So of course, we'll always look at structure and to the extent that any changes necessary, we would certainly make any adjustments that would be necessary.

I would tell you, however, and you know this, that our exchange ratio wouldn't be the only criteria, of course, that's not the sole criteria that we would use to consider that.

Operator

The next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Theresa Chen

I want to go back to the Northeast customer consolidation, understanding that there should be opportunities for MPLX to grow alongside the combined EQT range entity. But given the greater scale of the customer post close, how should we think about the potential impact on rates and contract economics over time?

Maryann Mannen

Thanks for the question. I'm going to let Greg talk a little bit about that. But again, we believe based on long-term contracting particularly when you look at sort of the decade of that contracting that we're quite optimistic, if you will, of our ability to execute through that. But let me let Greg give you incremental color there.

Gregory Floerke

Thanks, Maryann. Theresa, I mentioned -- as I mentioned previously, we have a long-standing relationship with both Range and EQT. We process gas for both and fractionate for both GATHER 4.1. The infrastructure we build out has been built out over 15 to 20 years. And we have continued to have the ability to incrementally add capacity whether it be in the processing side, fractionation or debottlenecking as we continue to do.

So based on the durability of our contracts, the acreage dedications and the extension of that in a rich area. We feel the contractual situation that we're in, but also the ability to grow incrementally with these customers. And as is the case with any customer and particularly with the combination and with scale, we'll always be open to discuss and be willing to discuss other win-wins.

Arrangements that could help both the producer customers and our growth. So we're interested in continuing to have those discussions.

Operator

Our final question today comes from Verathon Reddy with JPMorgan.

Vrathan Reddy

It's been a hit on a couple of times during the call, but just curious how you -- with the additional capital redeployment flexibility, how you evaluate the Marcellus Utica growth opportunities versus the Permian and should we think about that as primarily processing additions given what you've mentioned so far, there are other parts of the value chain that you're looking at, at this moment.

Gregory Floerke

This is Greg again. I would say that we continue to see, as indicated by the ramp of our Harmon Creek 3 plant that came online earlier. We are continuing to actually loop pipeline in the Marcellus area, ad compression and debottleneck some of the plants. We're obviously at high utilization near mid-90s, but we do have opportunity to continue to incrementally extract more capacity out of our fleet of plants out there. The NGL prices are really good. Light oil and crude on the Utica side is really good the pricing there. And so we've got a lot of -- you've seen we've almost doubled our volume and utilization in the last 3 years in the Utica.

And we were fortunate we had some capacity that was built out that we're able to grow into. We'll continue to do that in both the Utica and and all those systems are integrated together into fractionation and both liquids and gas takeaway. So I think we will continue to see opportunities there for incremental growth.

Unknown Executive

Yes. And I just wanted to quickly add as well. This is kind of thinking again about our capital allocation strategy and where do we see the growth -- when we think about the Northeast, you've thought about that. We've always been a just-in-time processing fractionation builder. When Greg and team get to that kind of mid-90s. We're thinking about what's that next expansion project. It's the low to mid-90s, they better start engineering it. So if you think about the Majorsville expansion that's going to be coming online, that's where that comes on just in time.

When you think about the Permian and the Southwest, that's an area where -- as you've seen, there's exponential growth. We just talked about some of the egress that we're expected to see through 2030. But it's also the area that we do just in time. Right? So we're not deploying stranded capital. Rather, we're getting the acreage dedications and the line of sight to the volumes to fill both processing and fractionation as it's scheduled to come online.

Vrathan Reddy

Great. And as a follow-up, how would you guys frame the long-term CapEx run rate at this point? Obviously, fundamentally supportive backdrop in '27 has a lot of growth projects coming online. But as you think about longer term, how would you frame that run rate CapEx.

Unknown Executive

Yes, I'll take that 1 quickly. What I would tell you is when we think about our CapEx, $126 million is an elevated amount. And what we did we pulled forward a lot of capital spend that was associated with some of these big organic projects that we're doing. You think about Secretary to, you think about our wellhead to water on the NGL side of the house. We these are pull forward, not overspend. So it's an important thing to delineate there. This is just -- so thinking about that, right, $27 million likely looks less than $26 million.

When you go longer term, you start thinking 28, you started thinking 29, what I'll remind is that base business continues to get bigger and bigger. So to get to that mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, are going to happen and you require those mid-teens return on either organic or inorganic projects, the amount you have to spend gets bigger and bigger each year. And what I would also tell you is, just like you saw with this year, it won't always be linear, right? You can come in chunks. So that's how I'd probably answer that. Hopefully, that helped.

Operator

That was our final question.

Brian Worthington

All right. Thank you for your interest in MPLX. Should you have more questions or would you want clarification on topics discussed this morning, please contact us, and our team will be available to take your calls. PAUSE Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. Participants, you may disconnect at this time.