ブラック・ストーン・ミネラルズ（BSM）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：DCFは9,300万ドルに到達、分配金は増加

主要ハイライト

• Black Stone Mineralsが発表した2026年第3四半期の純利益は約5,200万ドルとなり、これには約3,000万ドルの非現金未実現損失が含まれています。
• 調整後EBITDAは1億400万ドルに達し、分配可能キャッシュフローは9,300万ドルとなり、原油および天然ガスの生産量増加がこれを後押ししました。
• 四半期分配金は2四半期連続で増額され、1ユニットあたり0.35ドル（年換算1.40ドル相当）となりました。分配金カバレッジ比率は1.25倍です。
• 鉱物およびロイヤリティ生産量は、ヘインズビル/ボジエでの天然ガス生産量の増加とパーミアンでの原油生産量の増加に牽引され、前四半期比で6%増加しました。
• 拡張されたシェルビー・トラフを対象とする開発協定は、現在合計約140万グロス・エーカーに及んでいます。Catalyst社は当初の協定に基づき最初の開発井2坑の掘削を開始しており、2027年前半の生産開始が見込まれています。
• 経営陣は、財務の柔軟性と持続可能な分配金の成長を強調する一方で、シェルビー・トラフにおける天然ガス生産量が2027年に向けて着実に拡大すると見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

当四半期中、原油およびコンデンセートが石油・ガス収益の約3分の2を創出しました。経営陣は、特に原油において商品価格が引き続きプラスに寄与したと述べています。

事業および営業業績

前四半期比での生産量増加は、ヘインズビル/ボジエにおける天然ガス生産量の増加と、パーミアンにおける原油生産量の増加を反映したものです。また、経営陣は、オペレーターが掘削済み未完了井（DUC）の開発を進めたことで、パーミアンおよびバッケンで追加の井戸が稼働を開始したことにも言及しました。

シェルビー・トラフは、依然としてBlack Stone Mineralsの成長戦略の中心です。Catalyst社、他のオペレーター開発、およびRevenant社との協定は、合計で約140万グロス・エーカーをカバーしています。同社はまた、活発なシェルビー・トラフ地域に従来型のリース契約下で約5万グロス・エーカーを保有しています。

Adamas社は井戸の順次稼働を継続しており、Revenant社の最初の生産は2026年末までに予定されています。Catalyst社は当初の協定に基づき最初の開発井2坑の掘削を開始しており、2027年前半に生産が開始される見込みです。

シェルビー・トラフ全体のポジションにおいて、Exco、Apex、Rockcliff、BPXの各社は、Black Stone Mineralsの保有地で計10坑の井戸の掘削中または完工待ちの状態にあります。経営陣は、追加の許可申請状況から今後数ヶ月で掘削活動が活発化することを示していると述べました。

計画されている買収プログラムの下、同社は拡大されたシェルビー・トラフのネット鉱物権面積の約60%が従来からの保有資産に由来し、約40%が買収によるものと見込んでいます。経営陣は買収プログラムが半分以上完了したとし、追加のボルトオン買収の機会も引き続き検討中であると述べました。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は、既存の開発協定に基づく井戸が生産を開始するにつれて、シェルビー・トラフの天然ガス生産量が2027年にかけて堅調に増加すると予想しています。同社は、これらのプログラムが長期的に生産量、キャッシュフロー、分配金の拡大を後押しできると考えています。

原油については、パーミアンおよびバッケンにおける持ち分比率の高い開発活動と継続的な完工作業が生産量を下支えすると見込んでいます。ただし、オペレーターの活動状況は商品価格や2027年の設備投資予算に左右される可能性があります。

同社は、開発および買収への投資と分配金の成長とのバランスをとる計画です。経営陣は、既存の融資枠は現在の買収プログラムにとって十分であり、貸借対照表の柔軟性を維持することが引き続き最優先事項であると改めて強調しました。

リスクと注目点

• 商品価格の変動は、特に原油中心の地域において、オペレーターの活動、生産性の伸び、および設備投資に影響を与える可能性があります。
• 新規生産のペースと時期は、オペレーターが計画された井戸の完工およびパイプライン接続を完了するタイミングに依存します。
• 経営陣は、シェルビー・トラフの生産拡大に伴い長期的に追加の輸送能力が必要になると認識しているものの、関連するインフレプロジェクトはすでに進行中であると述べています。
• 資本配分にあたっては、買収、優先株式の償還の可能性、分配金、および貸借対照表の柔軟性のバランスを取る必要があります。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストからは、拡張されたCatalyst社との協定、買収資金調達、生産成長、および分配金方針に注目が集まりました。経営陣はCatalyst社との協定拡張の背景にある具体的な地下調査結果の公表は控えましたが、拡張契約と競争的なマーケティングプロセスは、シェルビー・トラフおよびヘインズビル/ボジエの機会に対する業界全体の高い関心を反映したものであると述べました。

生産面において、経営陣はAdamas社が井戸の稼働を継続し、Revenant社とCatalyst社が生産を開始するにつれて、天然ガス生産が着実に拡大すると予想しています。原油生産量は、Blue Aero社の活動やパーミアンおよびバッケンでの追加の完工の恩恵を受けると見られますが、これは商品価格やオペレーターの予算状況に左右されます。

インフラに関して、経営陣はシェルビー・トラフの長期的な成長にはさらなる輸送能力が必要であると述べました。しかし、Williams社やMomentum社に関連するプロジェクトを含む進行中の投資を指摘し、開発が進展しても大規模な輸送制約が生じるとは予想していないと述べました。

経営陣は従来の分配金戦略を維持しました。1ユニットあたり0.35ドルへの増額は自社の業績見通しに対する自信を反映させたものですが、今後の決定においても引き続き財務の柔軟性と市場環境が考慮されます。

決算説明会（アーニングスコール）全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Natalie Liddell, Vice President, Corporate Planning. Natalie, please go ahead.

Natalie Liddell

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us by phone or online for Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website along with the earnings release issued last night.

Before we start, I'd like to advise you that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call about our plans, expectations and assumptions regarding our future performance. These statements involve risks that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. For a discussion of these risks, you should refer to the cautionary information about forward-looking statements in our press release from yesterday and the Risk Factors section of our 2025 10-K. We may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance.

Reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and other information about these non-GAAP metrics are described in our earnings press release yesterday from yesterday, which can be found on our website at www.blackstoneminerals.com. Joining me on the call from the company are Taylor DeWalch, Co-CEO and President; Fowler Carter, Co-CEO and President; Steve Putman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel; Chris Bonner, Senior Vice President; Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

I'll now turn the call over to Taylor.

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Natalie. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. We had a strong third quarter with growth in both oil and natural gas production. Higher volumes together with continued support from elevated oil prices contributed to increased cash flow compared to the second quarter. With these results and continued progress toward natural gas production growth we raised our distribution for the second consecutive quarter while maintaining prudent coverage.

As we look ahead, we continue to monitor commodity market conditions and what they may mean for operator activity and our production outlook. We also took an important step in advancing our [ Shelby Trough ] strategy with the amendment and expansion of our Catalyst agreement. It brings a broader portion of our position into a contracted development program and moves us closer to realizing the production potential of our mineral inventory.

These successful results for the third quarter highlight the strength of Black Stone's unique and differentiated strategy. We are both actively managing the portfolio across the [ Lower 48 ] through current leasing, while also promoting significant growth through our development agreements on high interest acreage. The combination of these strategies along with a significant unleased position across the country that we continue to explore, provides a solid foundation with substantial growth opportunities.

As we look to 2027, our focus is on continued execution under our existing agreements as these development programs progress and grow. Together with ongoing activity across our broader portfolio, we expect these programs to drive higher production and support distribution growth over time. As we evaluate that progress, we'll balance distributions and investment in growth in a way that preserves our financial flexibility.

With that, I'll turn it over to Fowler to discuss how we are advancing our growth strategy and what the progress across these programs means for Black Stone.

Fowler Carter

Thanks, Taylor. A key focus of our growth strategy is advancing development of our substantial legacy mineral position, the expanded Shelby Trough. Targeted acquisitions and development agreements help us turn that inventory into natural gas production and cash flow. Together, these efforts go beyond any single transaction to build a portfolio of development programs that we expect to contribute to production growth over time.

At the conclusion of our planned acquisition program, we expect approximately 60% of our expanded Shelby Trough net mineral acreage to come from our legacy holdings and approximately 40% from the acquisition program. This reflects how targeted additions build on our existing acreage position and enhance the overall development opportunity. Our expanded catalyst agreement reflects our strategy of working with operators to move more of our acreage towards delineation, development and ultimately production, strong industry interest, during the marketing process, reinforced our confidence in the long-term potential of the position. This amendment combined with our other high interest development agreements brings the total area covered by our catalysts, [Indiscernible] and revenant agreements to approximately 1.4 million gross acres.

Additionally, we have approximately 50,000 gross acres under traditional leases in active areas throughout the Shelby Trough. We are seeing development activity continue to build across the acreage. [ Adamas ] is bringing additional wells online, [ Revenant ] first production is expected by year-end, and Catalyst has spud its first 2 development wells under the original agreement with production expected in the first half of '27. Across our broader Shelby Trough position, Exco, Apex, Rockcliff and BPX currently have 10 combined wells drilling or awaiting completion on our acreage, and additional drilling permit filings suggest increased drilling activity in the coming months.

We continue to actively market acreage and work with operators throughout our mineral portfolio to put more of our position into play. Strong leasing activity and higher lease bonus revenues reflect those efforts, generating revenue today while creating opportunities for future drilling and production. At the core of our growth outlook are our Shelby Trough development programs. With these agreements now in place and development advancing, we expect significant growth in natural gas production and cash flow. We believe this expected growth, together with opportunities elsewhere in our mineral portfolio provides a strong foundation for growing returns to unitholders in the years ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to cover the financial results.

Chris Bonner

Thanks, Fowler, and good morning. Mineral Royalty production during the third quarter averaged 34.5 [Indiscernible] per day, while total production averaged 35.6 [Indiscernible] per day. [Indiscernible] royalty production increased 6% from the second quarter driven by both higher natural gas volumes from the Haynesville Bossier and higher oil volumes from the Permian. Commodity prices remained supportive during the quarter, particularly for oil.

Our average realized price, excluding the impact of derivative settlements, was roughly in line with last quarter. Higher production contributed to stronger oil and gas revenues and cash flow with oil and condensate accounting for nearly 2/3 of our oil and gas revenues. Net income was approximately $52 million for the quarter, which included a noncash unrealized rate of loss of about $30 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $104 million and distributable cash flow was $93 million. As previously announced, we declared a distribution of $0.35 per unit for the quarter or $1.40 on an annualized basis.

Stronger cash flow supported our second consecutive quarterly distribution increase, while allowing us to maintain 1.25x coverage for the quarter. Maintaining that balance allows us to pursue accretive opportunities while supporting our objective of sustainable distribution growth. As Taylor and Fowler discussed, programs under our development agreements, including the expansion of our Catalyst program, is positioning more of our acreage to help meet anticipated natural gas demand growth from LNG exports, power generation and industrial uses. Our proximity to Gulf Coast demand centers reinforces that opportunity. Our focus remains on advancing development with the goal of growing production, cash flow and distributions for unitholders.

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Annis with Texas Capital Bank.

質疑応答

John Annis

My first one is on the expanded caters agreement. What did the pilot work or subsurface data show that gave both parties the confidence to expand the contract area by 730,000 gross acres.

Fowler Carter

John, Fowler here. Catalysts collected a lot of data on that well. And as we've said, we're excited to expand the contract here with them, and we're not going to jump in front of them on comments to that. But I think the expansion of the contract speaks to answer the question.

John Annis

That make sense. For my follow-up, production showed some nice growth sequentially. Can you walk us through kind of the main drivers of that growth and how we should think about volumes over the next couple of quarters as the remaining [Indiscernible] wells come online?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes, I can start with that. So looking at the Shelby Trough, Adamas continues to turn wells on, and we expect that to continue and then are looking forward, as we mentioned, to the first revenue wells coming on and [Indiscernible] so generally on the gas side, we expect that to just be a steady ramp as we go into next year.

On the oil side, certainly encouraged by the higher interest development with Blue Aero and think that, that will continue to show growth in oil volumes. And then we've also just seen broadly across the Permian and Bakken more wells coming online as operators work through DUCs. I think there it is a little bit more price sensitive, and we'll see what operators decide to do with our CapEx budgets going into next year, but we're certainly expecting that to continue to be a strong driver of our volumes and revenue.

John Annis

Got it. If I could sneak one last one in, maybe more on the macro side. with several operators advancing programs across the Shelby Trough, are you guys seeing any constraint around takeaway capacity services or anything else that could limit the pace of development as activity scales?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. Thanks, John. This is Taylor. I'll touch on that. I think when we look at takeaway capacity on the Shelby Trough, that's been a conversation that's been had between us, the operators and potential midstream gatherers and long-haul pipes for quite some time now, trying to get ready ahead of the volumes coming online from the Shelby Trough. I think we're all excited about the potential of the size and volumes that we're all forecasting to come out of that area. But over the long haul, we're going to need some additional capacity. And I'd say those projects are well underway, especially I think if we specifically call out the deal between Williams and momentum, I certainly think there's capital being injected into that area.

And we're excited to have some more capacity that goes south towards the LNG corridor and other demand centers kind of towards some of the other LNG facilities such as Venture Global and other projects underway. So I think that those projects are well underway, and we shouldn't see any takeaway or large-scale takeaway constraints as we move forward the supply curve.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Timothy Rezvan

We appreciated the detailed update about your operating agreements in the release. So I just wanted to ask kind of what that caters expansion, where do you stand with resource capture at this point? You've spent about $335 million. You have a number of agreements lined up. Are you done? Is there more to do? Just kind of trying to understand your appetite at this point?

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, I think the best way to answer that is stay tuned. That's [Indiscernible].

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, this is Taylor. I'll just add on to that a little bit, too. I mean, I think we continue to move forward with our acquisition program. We've talked about it in the past that I think we said a couple of quarters ago, we're about halfway through it. So we're more than halfway through at this point. But we're still seeing opportunities to continue to bolt on to get to the type of scale that we really desire in order to place the acreage into these development agreements to also help incentivize the operators.

So we're over halfway through and continue to move forward with acquisitions in that area. One other comment I might just make and this goes back to one of the previous questions as well on caters is we had a pretty strong competitive marketing process on these expanded areas. So I don't think that it's tied to any specific well, but more thinking about the broader area and just general excitement on the expanding Shelby Trough in the Haynesville/Bossier play. And that covering, like Fowler said in his prepared remarks, well over 1 million gross acres that we've not got -- now have in these contracted agreements.

Timothy Rezvan

Okay. I think I understand your body language pretty clearly on that. If we think about the capital structure at this point, it looks like you're about a little over half drawn on your credit facility. I think the next redetermination in the spring. How should we think about sources of capital for any incremental acquisitions? I know you have the preferred that's sort of out there. So how do you think about capital structure to support this growth that is clearly underway.

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. I'll maybe just touch on it quickly, Tim, and then Chris can jump in [Indiscernible] one of the keys for us is to stay flexible from a balance sheet perspective. I think we've continued to do that. I think when we look at the current cycle that we're in, we think about how do we utilize this elevated oil price cycle to make the business better. And we think we can do that through both 2 consecutive quarters of distributions, but also focusing on maintaining a clean balance sheet and then growing the business for the long haul. That's really what we've been focused on. And I think that our agreements and continuing to bring in new agreements continues to kind of fortify that strategy.

And as we think about the sort of financial flexibility there are other uses of capital that are out there from an acquisition or a preferred standpoint. The redemption window comes up about a year from now. So I think we'll continue to weigh those different uses of capital as we progress over the next 12 months.

Chris Bonner

Yes, I think the only thing I'll add to that is we do feel that our existing credit facility is sufficient to meet our needs when it comes to the acquisition program.

Timothy Rezvan

And if I could just sneak one more in. You surprised us with the distribution increase this quarter, and it looks like ample coverage for that payment. In the past, the Board has tried to maintain a fixed distribution despite volatile gas markets. But is your expectation to try to keep that $0.35 distribution? Or is the Board maybe going to be more tactical as prices at and flow?

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Tim. No, I think our strategy around the distribution stays the same. We raised it because we felt comfortable about where our forecast stands, which is what we've signaled to key guys in the past. So we're happy to be able to recommend and get the approval for the distribution growth. And like I said, we continue to look out to the forecast for just maintaining kind of flexibility related to all of our financials.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Taylor DeWalch, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President, for closing remarks.

Taylor DeWalch

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Really excited to both announce continued growth in the Shelby Trough as well as strong quarterly results and look forward to speaking to you all again next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.