アードモア・シッピング（ASC）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：第4四半期MR TCEは日額57,600ドルに達する

主要なポイント

• アードモア・シッピングが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後利益は6,300万ドル（1株当たり0.40ドル）、調整後EBITDAは2,880万ドルとなりました。
• 同社は1株当たり0.27ドルの四半期配当を発表しました。これは調整後利益の3分の2に相当し、16四半期連続の現金配当となります。
• 第3四半期におけるMR型タンカーのTCE（等価定期貸船料）は1日当たり27,000ドルでした。第4四半期は対象日数の45%が成約済みで、平均成約レートは1日当たり57,600ドルとなっており、直近の成約案件では1日当たり80,000ドルを超えています。
• ケミカルタンカーのTCEは第3四半期に1日当たり23,300ドル、第4四半期は現在までに60%が成約済みで1日当たり30,100ドルとなりました。ハンディサイズ・ケミカルタンカーの過去1ヶ月間の平均成約レートは1日当たり50,000ドル近くに達しました。
• 営業キャッシュ損益分岐点は1日当たり10,800ドルと低い水準を維持しており、現在の用船料水準に対して大幅な営業レバレッジをもたらしています。当四半期の稼働率は99%に達しました。
• 経営陣は、地政学的な貿易混乱、石油製品在庫の低水準、航行距離の長期化が引き続きタンカー需要を支えている一方、老朽化するMR型およびハンディサイズの船隊が実質的な供給量を制約していると述べました。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

アードモアは、保有船隊の約85%をスポット市場に露出させた状態で第4四半期を迎え、タンカー運賃の急騰を取り込める体制を整えています。経営陣は、現在の市場環境について、本格的な需要期（冬季）に入る前から冬の繁忙期のような状況を呈していると説明しました。

同社は、貿易ルートの寸断、高い製油マージン、製品在庫の枯渇がタンカー需要の拡大につながっていると分析しています。経営陣によると、世界的な石油製品在庫の減少量はMR型タンカー約600隻分の積載量に相当します。また、欧州のジェット燃料在庫は年初の水準の約半分に低下しており、全米のガソリンおよび軽油在庫も過去5年間の平均水準を下回っていると指摘しました。

長距離の貿易パターンの拡大も船舶の稼働率を引き上げています。米国沿岸部（USメキシコ湾岸）から欧州およびアジア向けの輸出は前年同期比で増加し、東行きのMR型ナフサ輸送量は5倍に急増しました。経営陣はさらに、中国、韓国、インドからの輸出活性化が今後の荷動きを一層後押しする可能性があると付け加えました。

船隊の供給は老朽化によって引き続き制約されています。MR型タンカーの手持ち工事量（新造船発注残）は既存船隊の18%にとどまる一方、現行のMR型タンカーの半分が5年以内に船齢20年を超えます。ハンディサイズ・タンカーでは手持ち工事量が6%に過ぎず、船隊の75%が5年以内に20年を超えます。経営陣は、安全基準、環境規制、コンプライアンス要件の厳格化に伴い、老朽船の実質的な稼働率が低下していると述べました。

アードモアは2013年建造の船舶1隻を3,430万ドルで売却し、10月中旬に引き渡しを完了しました。また、ハンディサイズ・タンカーの新造船2隻の追加オプションを行使し、2028年から順次引き渡し予定の合計6隻の発注を確定させました。これらの船舶は、石油製品、高機能ケミカル、食用油、代替燃料の輸送が可能な設計となっています。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、2026年残りの期間における船隊関連の設備投資額を200万ドルと見積もり、2027年については1,300万ドルと予測しています。

同社は、現在確定している成約分を超える四半期通期のTCE予測は示していません。直近のMR型タンカーの成約分が1日当たり80,000ドルを超えており、第4四半期の既成約分平均である57,600ドルを上回る力強いモメンタムの維持が示唆されているものの、運賃の予測には不確実性が残ることを経営陣は強調しました。

アードモアは、調整後利益の3分の2を配当する方針を継続しつつ、船隊の若返り、機動的な船舶売却、潜在的な買収とのバランスを取る計画です。経営陣は、これらの資本配分手段について、同時並行ではなく市場サイクルの異なる局面に応じて活用していくと述べました。

リスクおよび注視すべき点

• 第4四半期のTCE数値は、MR型タンカーの稼働可能日数の45%、ケミカルタンカーの60%のみをカバーしているため、今後の業績はスポット運賃の変動に左右される可能性があります。
• 経営陣は、現在の高水準な運賃環境がどの程度持続し、どの規模に達するかを予測することは困難であると認めています。
• 地政学的リスクによる混乱は航路の長期化を後押ししているものの、同時に厳しい運航環境や荷動きの変化をもたらす要因にもなっています。
• 老朽船は、安全・環境・コンプライアンスの基準において主要な傭船主からの精査が一段と厳しくなっており、実質的な稼働率の低下を招いています。
• 6隻の新造船計画により将来の資金コミットメントが増加しており、これが32%という実質レバレッジに反映されています。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストからは、優れたキャッシュ創出力と資産価値の上昇により、アードモアの資本配分の優先順位が変更されるかどうかに注目が集まりました。経営陣は、配当、自社株買いの検討、厳選された船隊投資、老朽船の機動的な売却を組み合わせた柔軟なアプローチを維持すると答えました。

船隊戦略について、経営陣は現在の近代的な船隊と高いスポット露出度をもって冬の需要期に入ることに自信を示しました。同社は老朽船を次の市況サイクルまで保有し続ける準備もあるものの、買主から十分魅力的な価格が提示されれば売却を検討する姿勢です。

また、経営陣は1隻の返船を経て現在は傭船（他社からの借り受け船舶）を保有していないものの、他社船の傭船も引き続き戦略的選択肢の一部であると述べました。今後の傭船取引においては、船質、技術管理、顧客との適合性に関するアードモアの基準を満たす必要があるとしています。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Note that today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing 1 888660-6345 164 517-4150 and entering passcode 402 19. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer at Ardmore Shipping.

Gernot Ruppelt

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Garnet. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our third quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And I'll now turn the call back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll provide a brief overview of our third quarter highlights. Thereafter, I will hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning to Slide 4, which covers our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong result with third quarter adjusted earnings of $63 million or $0.40 per share. Geopolitical dislocation continues to reshape trade patterns, absorbing tonnage and boosting TCE rates and even stronger momentum has been building into the fourth quarter.

We continue to execute on our capital allocation policy -- part more is declaring a dividend of $0.27 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings. During the third quarter, we agreed to sell 1 of our 2013 Baltimore for $34.3 million, and the ship was subsequently delivered in mid-October. And as previously announced, we exercised options for 2 Handysize tanker newbuildings bringing our total order to 6 vessels with delivery dates starting from 2028.

Moving on to our TCE performance on Slide 5. Our third quarter bookings reflect the firm market during what is a seasonally slower period. And moving into the fourth quarter, rates have been accelerating meaningfully. Our MR tankers earned $27,000 per day for the third quarter and $57,600 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 45% booked. As you can see in the chart here, these levels are roughly double the TCEs achieved during the same period last year. And if you were to zoom in further, our recent bookings are north of $80,000 per day. Our chemical tankers earned $23,300 per day for the third quarter and $30,100 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 60% booked. With some additional context, our Handysize chemical tankers, the focus of our new building program have concluded average charter rates of nearly $50,000 per day over the last month. Our operating leverage is exceptionally strong with TCE earnings at a multiple of our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

Turning to Slide 6. Here, we outlined the company's approach to capital allocation whereby we continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in fleet renewal and growth. At the start of the year, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. And today, we are declaring our 16th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. As mentioned, we have contracted 6 Handysize tanker newbuildings with delivery starting in 2028. These highly flexible assets can carry the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and alternative fuels.

This year, we sold 2 older vessels at very attractive prices. While last year, we had acquired 3 modern secondhand MRs at prices around 30% below current market levels. And we retained considerable financial flexibility across a wide range of market conditions with an operating cash breakeven of just $10,800 per day and ample debt capacity. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart for the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 8 and the market outlook. Starting on the top right, Global seaborne crude shipments are essentially back to pre-conflict levels. The chart on the bottom left shows crack spreads averaging over $60 per barrel on WTI and over 50 on Brent, up from the $20 range at the start of the year. This is supporting robust refining activity as depicted in the bottom right. The IEA forecast global throughput to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter with further growth through 2027, supporting higher product exports and product tanker utilization. .

Moving to Slide 9 and the inventory restocking opportunity ahead. Disruption to crude and product flows has created supply gaps in several regions. Inventories have been drawn, leaving product stocks at multiyear lows. The chart on the top right shows European jet fuel now half of what it was at the start of the year, sitting well below its 5-year range. Looking to the 2 charts on the bottom, U.S. gasoline and diesel are both below their 5-year lows as well. Rebuilding these stocks will add an incremental layer of product tanker demand. Just to frame this, the decline in global product stocks equates to over 600 MR equivalent cargoes.

Additionally, several countries are planning to increase their strategic reserves, potentially further lengthening the restocking cycle and corresponding product tanker demand. Turning to Slide 10 and how geopolitical shifts in refinery dislocation are reshaping global trade. Energy security remains a fundamental priority with government's diversifying import sources and securing seaborne supply chains. At the same time, refining and consumption are increasingly dislocated. The continued trend of closures in the West is being replaced by new capacity in the East, extending voyage distances. On top of these structural drivers, trade disruption is absorbing fleet capacity. The map shows a few representative examples.

Volumes from the U.S. Gulf to Europe and Asia have risen significantly year-on-year, and MR Naptha East is up fivefold. Moving to Slide 11. I where we highlight the favorable supply dynamics. Starting on the left with the MR segment. The order book represents 18% of the fleet. And within 5 years, half of all existing MRs will be over 20 years old. Moving to the Handysize segment on the right, which, as a reminder, is the focus of our newbuilding program, the order book is just 6% of the current fleet and within 5 years, 75% of Handy's will be over 20 years old that 17 million tons approaching the scrapping window to warping the 1 million tons on order. Slide 12 further shows how the aging fleet impacts effective supply.

Given rigorous safety, environmental and compliance standards, older tankers are increasingly scrutinized by top-tier charters. As the chart highlights, utilization meaningfully declines as the vessel ages. And even when older vessels are not scrapped, effective supply is reduced accordingly. Moving now to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. We continue to generate robust cash flow by optimizing TCE performance and tightly managing costs, supporting our low operating cash breakeven level of $10,800 per day. were $11,700 per day, including dry dock and CapEx. Looking ahead, including the forward commitments associated with our newbuilding program, effective leverage stands at 32%.

Turning to Slide 15. Again, highlighting our third quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40. The EBITDA reconciliation in our fourth quarter guidance can be found in the appendix. Turning to Slide 16 for operational highlights. -- far well-being continues to be a top priority, and we acknowledge the key role our seafarers play in an increasingly challenging operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved an impressive 99% on-hire utilization, supported by our very active Ship to Shore collaboration with innovation continuing to drive strong efficiencies. For the remainder of the year, fleet CapEx is estimated at $2 million, and we forecast $13 million for 2027. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18 in summary. Ardmore is well positioned and capitalizing on a strong market. We are capturing TCE rates at large multiples of our cash breakeven with MR earnings so far in the fourth quarter of almost $60,000 per day and recent bookings point even higher as discussed earlier on the call. Near-term disruption and inventory restocking needs create strong immediate drivers in addition to compelling structural long-term demand growth and an aging fleet. We are distributing 2/3 of adjusted earnings to shareholders while renewing the fleet through targeted investment in line with the company's dynamic approach to capital allocation. As always, our decisions are guided by our long-term strategy strong governance and a commitment to creating value through market cycles. We now welcome your questions. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from John Chappell at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead, Jon.

質疑応答

Jonathan Chappell

Thank you. Okay. Slide 6 is your policies and priorities that you've had in place for a few years, and they've obviously served you quite well. but we're in incredible times right now. And the cash flow generation, the asset value movements we've never seen before in this industry. Does that change the way that you think about these priorities into '27 and beyond? And if not, the priorities themselves but maybe the timing of how you look to introduce them or potentially accelerate them?

Gernot Ruppelt

That's a terrific question, John. And I'd like to think we have been and we'll continue to approach that topic in a very nonbinary way, where as a business, we continue to make sure that we return capital to shareholders. Well, of course, there's any business, you also have to invest in your future. But those different levers don't have to be always pulled simultaneously or within any given quarter, but rather need to be looked at kind of through the game, through the cycle. And for us, we'll continue to adjust those levers on right now our accelerated dividend payout ratio at a different time, we embraced share buybacks on the fleet renewal side, very well-timed acquisitions in the second hand market last year and equally some well-timed new building constructions that we've committed to at pre-year-end prices and then layered as various tranches at options throughout the year in all those situations kind of really moved early before the market and then also continuing to assess opportunities to take some value off the table by pruning some of our older ships if we're seeing sort of the right price and we'll continue to approach it exactly in that fashion.

Jonathan Chappell

Okay. And then as a follow-up, again, extraordinary, typically, when you have this kind of quarter-to-date level rate, I would tend to fade them because typically, they don't last. They're not strong for this long. However, as you insinuated in 1 of your product tanker peers spoke to last week. They're actually continuing to march higher. So is there any way to kind of give us a sense of where you sit today relative to that average? And then given the inventory slides, especially that Bart laid out, maybe how to think about magnitude and direction from the rest of this quarter, understanding it's very difficult to predict. So maybe just kind of where we are today versus the average is a good way to start.

Gernot Ruppelt

Yes, acknowledging some of those challenges of a true prediction, but at the same time, grounding us and some of the facts that we are seeing -- that we're observing today. Just looking at the market around you, it feels like a winter market already before it is even winter. If you look at refining margins, we had, of course, some data update during the slide show. But in very simple terms, refining margins today are double of what they were before the situation in Iran kicked off earlier this year. And those levels are yet again double of what they would have been at the start of the decade. So none of this is set to change anytime soon.

Atlantic product markets remain extremely tight, as you can see with some of the significant product deficiencies in some markets. And then at the same time, some barrels, of course, coming out of the Middle East. And you see an overall structural Chinese refining surplus, probably kicking in to an even higher gear. If you consider the recent publication of higher export quotas from Korea -- sorry, from China, at the same time, you also saw that Korea made some announcements with regard to expanding the export -- export capacities. And India typically gets quite busy this time of the year as well. So we continue to see these significant swings. Overall, the barrels are back, but the efficiency is not. And you, of course, now see product tankers continuing to connect these inefficient commodity markets in a very efficient way.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next will be Omar Nokta at Clarkson.

Omar Nokta

Pretty a good update. Yes. So clearly, 3, even though it was softer quarter-over-quarter, it was still historically very good and then 4Q is looking off the charts as you were highlighting. I wonder if you just ask about maybe somewhat related to John's first question about capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistically selling the 2013 built MR. How do you think about replacing those earnings or taking the cash and using that for a separate purpose. What are you thinking about that? When we -- in the past few quarters, you've invested in the handies via the new buildings. How are you thinking about the MR specifically? Would you look to recycle the cash into more new buildings on the MR side? Or would you look to acquire potentially modern vessels? Or is it just sit back and leave as ?

Gernot Ruppelt

Right now, we're very happy with the position that we're in, Omar. We have a very modern fleet, all equals back 85% -- roughly 85% spot as we're heading into the winter market here. As far as the future is concerned, I believe the market will guide the way. There are times to be just patient and let you position play out. And then there are other times to be decisive as we have demonstrated at the start of last year at again at the start of this year. And we continue to have a very live interactive discussion internally and with our Board about where the pockets of value closely tracking price dislocation again, bringing it back to the overall levers of our capital allocation policy, balancing returning capital to our shareholders reinvesting in the business in the long run, but also in line with what is our long-term strategy and what has been our long-term strategy that underpins those decisions.

So kind of combining a very deliberate long-term strategic focus while being nimble and opportunistic for instance, if there's an opportunity to prune some of these older ships. I will say the ARPA feet, as you see also the shift that we sold, these are fine ships, all eco built by or owned by Armor for longer than a decade with various efficiency upgrades already undertaken, and we are fully prepared and would be very happy to take them through various cycles to come and hold them for another 7 years. And we're preparing any additional upgrades and maintenance programs and driving schedules with that baseline assumption. But if somebody really wants to come and present a strong number, of course, on an older ship. We obviously have to listen. But that's probably not today, we're very happy approaching the winter as it is now and letting our position play out here.

Omar Nokta

Okay. That's fair. So basically go into the winter, see how that goes and perhaps revisit as we get into next year if I'm moving you correctly?

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I think there's a lot of really important interesting immediate drivers that are just really starting to play out on the market. I think there's the broader picture with with the relationship with -- between the bigger ships and MRs and MRS just really stepping into that normalized relationship, kind of taking their rightful place there. And I think looking ahead as where the world is going, not to belabor the state of the world, but at times like these, this concept of having access to energy supply chain resilience or that becomes for state players as a matter of natural security and at an enterprise level for our customers, protecting these incredible refining profits through access to tonnage, we'll continue to mean 1 thing and 1 thing only, maritime assets, essential assets and the market is probably just in the process of finding how to price those assets correctly, and we're quite happy to see that play out. .

Omar Nokta

Yes, certainly. And maybe if I could, just another question. I wanted to ask about the chartering and tonnage something that you have done generally in the past as we think about opportunities there, you've got a very strong balance sheet, plenty of flexibility with all the liquidity you have and the cash. How do you think about maybe looking to more on the TCN side by going long and bringing vessels in and go short in terms of charting them out in the spot market. Is that something that's interesting, just given kind of where the market is today in terms of the separation between what a TC and what cost versus what a spot rate would get you today? And then obviously, in the context of having a very robust balance sheet.

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I feel like these are levers we have used in the past and something we would continue to explore at the moment, well, we have actually redelivered a ship and currently don't have any ships on time charter in, but that could always be something that's very much in the mix for Armor. Of course, we're not only looking for a particular number with time short and relationships. It is also important that we have strong compatibility on brand, on technical management, on the quality of the ships, on the quality of the technical management company behind that vessel as we then move it into the auto tonnage list that it is fully up to our expectations because we have a strong following among our community of customers and charters and maintaining that is also really important for us. So in principle, very much part of the playbook, even though that might not be the case today. .

Operator

At this time, we have no other questions registered, which will conclude the question-and-answer session as well as our conference call today. I would like to thank everybody for taking the time to attend and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good afternoon.