ADT 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：Thrive案件の進展に伴い売上高4％増

要点

• ADTが発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比4%増の13億5,000万ドルとなりました。 設置・製品・その他売上高は32%増の2億6,500万ドルに増加しました。
• 調整後EBITDAは、テクノロジー投資を含む一般管理費の増加が設置売上高による一部の増益効果を上回ったため、2%減の6億6,500万ドルに減少しました。
• 調整後EPSは4%増の0.24ドルとなりました。金利スワップを含む調整後フリーキャッシュフローは4%増の2億1,700万ドルに増加しました。
• 年初来の調整後フリーキャッシュフローは10億ドルを超え、前年同期比46%増となり、すでに2025年通期の水準を上回りました。
• ADTはスライブ・ホールディングスによる1株当たり10ドルの現金での買収に合意しました。同社の株式価値は約76億ドル、企業価値は約153億ドルと評価されます。
• 買収取引の完了待ちに伴い、ADTは以前公表した業績予想を取り下げ、アナリスト向けの質疑応答セッションを実施しませんでした。

主要財務データ

事業およびオペレーション実績

顧客売上高の解約率（グロス）は前年同期の13.0%に対して13.1%となりました。料金未納による解約の増加は、自主的な契約解除の減少によって一部相殺されました。過去12ヶ月の売上回収期間（ペイバック期間）は2.3年と安定を維持しました。

新規獲得ユニット数（グロス）19万5,000件に伴う、新規獲得継続的月次売上高（グロスRMR）は合計1,210万ドルとなりました。直営による専門業者設置ユニット数およびRMRの新規獲得は前年同期比で改善した一方、ディーラー取扱量および一括顧客口座買い取りは減少しました。

ADTは当四半期中、900万ドルの現金で約8,000件の顧客口座を購入しました。また、「ADT+」での異常アクティビティアラートの導入、Origin AIの存在検知技術の実証実験の進展、「ADT Blu」のWalmart.comへの拡大、ならびに「ADT Partner Services」の立ち上げを実施しました。この最新の取り組みを通じ、ADTは2026年11月下旬よりApple Retailおよびその顧客向けに一部製品の設置およびメンテナンスサービスの提供を開始すると発表しました。

ADTの当四半期末における現金および現金同等物は2億2,800万ドルとなり、リボルビング信用供与枠の借り入れはありませんでした。純レバレッジ比率は調整後EBITDAの2.7倍となり、前年同期の2.8倍から低下しました。同社は配当と自社株買いを通じて、当四半期中に6,400万ドル、年初来で7億4,800万ドルを株主に還元しました。

経営陣の見通し

ADTは、スライブ・ホールディングスによる買収の手続き中であることを理由に、以前公表した業績予想を取り下げました。経営陣は新たな売上高、利益、またはキャッシュフローの見通しを示しませんでした。

同社は、慣習的な完了条件の充足、ADT株主の承認、および米国反トラスト法上の承認を条件として、本取引が2027年第1四半期に完了すると見込んでいると述べました。

リスクと主な検討事項

スライブ・ホールディングスによる取引は、株主承認や米国反トラスト法上の承認を含む完了条件を満たすことが条件となっています。スライブは、この全額現金による買収資金をエクイティ、デット、および優先株の組み合わせによって調達する予定です。

合併協定には2026年11月28日までのゴーショップ期間が含まれています。ADTは、開示が適切と判断されるか法的に義務付けられない限り、そのプロセスにおける進展を開示する予定はないと述べました。

運用上の検討事項には、料金未納による解約の増加、テクノロジー投資に伴う一般管理費の増加、および2025年10月の集合住宅事業売却による前年比較への影響などが挙げられます。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the ADT Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand the conference over to Elizabeth Landers, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Elizabeth Landers

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Speaking on today's call are Jim DeVries, ADT's Chairman, President and CEO; and Jeff Likosar, our Chief Financial Officer. As you know, on October 29, we announced that ADT has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings. In consideration of the pending transaction, we will not be taking questions on today's call.

Additionally, we will not be providing financial guidance and are withdrawing previously issued guidance.

This morning, we issued a press release and presentation summarizing our third quarter results. Both are available at investor.adt.com. During today's call, we'll reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings presentation on our website. Unless noted otherwise, all financials and metrics discussed reflect continuing operations.

Our remarks today also include forward-looking statements that fall within the safe harbor provisions provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, including statements regarding the proposed transaction. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are described in the earnings presentation and in our SEC filings, including the risks related to timing and completion of the proposed transaction. Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for more details.

We also refer you to the information in our press release regarding the proxy statement ADT intends to file with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction and regarding participants in the solicitation. Investors and stockholders are urged to read the proxy statement when it becomes available. And now I'm happy to turn the call over to Jim.

James DeVries

Thanks, Elizabeth, and good morning, everyone. I'll keep my remarks brief this morning, focusing on the transaction we announced last Thursday, and then Jeff will walk through our third quarter results.

On Thursday, October 29, we announced that we have entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, which our Board of Directors unanimously approved, ADT stockholders will receive $10 per share in cash upon completion. $10 represents a premium of 46% to ADT's unaffected closing share price on October 27 and 52% to our 30-day volume-weighted average share price ending on that date. The agreement values ADT at approximately $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value.

We believe this transaction represents an important next chapter for ADT, bringing together our more than 150 years of security experience, nationwide service network and trusted customer relationships with Thrive Holdings' long-term capital and engineering capabilities. I am pleased with this outcome, which recognizes the value built by our more than 12,000 employees and dealer partners, our long-standing commitment to providing peace of mind and our continued advancement of ADT's capabilities and technologies. Our progress and this transaction deliver an attractive cash premium to our stockholders.

ADT's leadership in smart home security is built on a legacy of trust, long-standing customer relationships and the dedication of our people. And importantly, for our customers, ADT's data and privacy policies will remain unchanged and no new data sharing will occur without customer permission.

We anticipate this transaction to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by ADT's stockholders and receipt of U.S. antitrust approval. This is an all-cash transaction, and Thrive expects to finance it through a combination of equity, debt and preferred equity.

As outlined in our announcement, the merger agreement includes a go-shop period that runs through November 28. As is customary, we do not intend to disclose developments with respect to that process unless and until we determine disclosure is appropriate or otherwise required.

Until the transaction closes, ADT will continue to operate independently as a public company. Importantly, with this transaction, ADT's focus has not changed. We remain committed to serving our customers, supporting our dealers and partners and executing our key initiatives.

During the quarter, we continued to make progress across our 3 core differentiators: unrivaled safety, premium customer experience and innovative offerings. We introduced Unusual Activity Alerts in ADT+, advanced pilots of our Origin AI presence sensing technology, expanded ADT Blu to Walmart.com and launched ADT Partner Services through which we will install and service select products for Apple Retail and its customers beginning later this month.

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to thank our employees, our dealers and partners and the first responders we work alongside every day. Your commitment is what has earned ADT the trust of millions of customers for more than 150 years. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Likosar

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll take the next few minutes to describe our third quarter with all comparisons year-over-year unless I note otherwise.

In summary, I'm very pleased to report that ADT again delivered strong results with continued revenue growth, solid earnings and robust cash generation, all in line with our expectations. Our consistent performance, while we continue to invest in our business, underscores the strength of our cash generation capabilities, which remain a highlight of our results.

Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, was $217 million, up 4% in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're up 46%, having generated more than $1 billion through the first 3 quarters in excess of last year's full year level. Key drivers include lower cash taxes and interest, along with working capital management and some timing favorability.

On the top line, total revenue was $1.35 billion, up 4%. Installation, product and other revenue was $265 million, up 32%, driven by a higher mix of professionally installed systems under our outright sales model.

Monitoring and related services revenue was $1.08 billion, down 1%, which includes the revenue loss from the October 2025 divestiture of our multifamily business. Ending recurring monthly revenue was $360 million compared to $362 million a year ago, with that decline also primarily reflecting the multifamily divestiture.

Adjusted EBITDA was $665 million, down 2%. This reflects higher general and administrative costs, including technology investments, partially offset by the margin on our higher installation revenue. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 4%. And on a year-to-date basis, we have generated $0.71 of adjusted EPS, up 6%, benefiting from a lower diluted share count along with lower interest expense.

Turning to operational metrics. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1% compared with 13% a year ago, with elevated nonpay cancellations partially offset by fewer voluntary disconnects. Trailing 12-month revenue payback was 2.3 years, consistent with the prior year.

Gross RMR additions were $12.1 million on 195,000 gross unit additions. Direct professional install unit and RMR additions continued to perform strongly, improving versus the prior year, offset by lower volume from dealers and bulk account purchases.

During the quarter, we completed a bulk account purchase of approximately 8,000 customer accounts for $9 million in cash. In August, we secured $100 million of incremental borrowings under our First Lien Term Loan A due 2030. We designated the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of a portion of our 2027 notes. Including these proceeds, we ended the quarter with $228 million of cash and cash equivalents with no borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

Net leverage was 2.7x adjusted EBITDA compared with 2.8x a year ago. During the quarter, we returned $64 million to shareholders, including $23 million in share repurchases and $41 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we have returned $748 million to shareholders through dividends and the repurchase of 89 million shares.

To conclude, we delivered solid overall third quarter results with revenue growth, strong year-to-date cash generation and stable core operating metrics, all while continuing to invest in our business for the long term.

As Elizabeth mentioned, due to the pending transaction, we won't be taking questions today. Thank you to our employees for their continued dedication, and thank you to our customers, dealers, partners and our investors.

And thank you all for joining us this morning. Operator, that concludes today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.