CNAファイナンシャル（CNA）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：LTC関連費用がコア利益を圧迫

主要なポイント

• コア純利益は2億300万ドルとなり、前年同期の4億900万ドルから減少しました。これには、毎年実施される介護（LTC）準備金前提の評価見直しによる税後で1億3,700万ドルのマイナス影響が含まれています。
• 損害保険（P&C）部門のコア純利益は3億9,700万ドルとなりました。損害保険の合算比率は97.0%で、これにはカタストロフィ損害2.8ポイントが含まれます。一方、基礎的合算比率は前年同期の91.3%から94.2%に上昇しました。
• 損害保険の正味計上保険料は3%増加しました。更新保険料の変化率は3%となり、料率変化は前四半期の横ばいから2%へと改善しました。
• 純投資利益は6億3,500万ドルとなり、前年同期の6億3,800万ドルから微減しました。固定利付有価証券およびその他の投資収益は4%増の5億8,700万ドルとなりました。
• 営業キャッシュフローは6億5,400万ドルに達しました。その他の包括利益累計額（AOCI）を除く1株当たり純資産は46.11ドルとなり、配当調整後で2025年末から5%増加しました。
• 経営陣は、第4四半期の固定利付有価証券およびその他の投資からの収益を約6億ドル、通期では23億ドル以上になると見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

コマーシャル（企業向け損害保険）

コマーシャル部門の合算比率は92.7%から99.7%に上昇しました。カタストロフィ損害が4.8ポイント（7,000万ドル）寄与したほか、主に超過損害賠償責任保険の準備金積み増しに伴う前年度繰越損益の悪化が2.4ポイント（3,500万ドル）増加させました。

基礎的合算比率は前年同期の90.0%に対し92.5%となりました。正味計上保険料と新規事業は共に2%増加し、継続率は83%でした。料率変化は2%へと改善し、ソーシャル・インフレーションの影響を最も受けた種目では1桁台後半の値上げとなりました。

CNAは価格設定や条件が不十分な分野でのリスクエクスポージャーを削減しました。ナショナルアカウント財産保険の元受計上保険料は12%減少、うち新規事業は32%減少しました。

スペシャルティ（専門保険）

スペシャルティ部門の合算比率は96.8%となり、基礎的合算比率は93.3%から96.7%に上昇しました。正味計上保険料は4%増加し、新規事業は5%増の1億3,700万ドルとなりました。

更新保険料の変化率は5%、料率変化は4%となりました。ヘルスケア分野の料率は8%と好調を維持し、金融・経営責任保険の料率変化は2%へと改善しました。

インターナショナル（海外事業）

インターナショナル部門の合算比率は、前年度繰越損益の好転10.1ポイント（3,500万ドル）の寄与により、前年同期の91.8%から86.1%に改善しました。一方、基礎的合算比率は91.2%から94.1%に上昇しました。

正味計上保険料は4%増加し、為替影響を除く実質では6%増となりました。継続率は87%となったものの、激しい市場競争の中で料率は4%低下し、更新価格変化率は2%下落しました。

介護保険（LTC）

ライフ＆グループ部門は前年同期の2,200万ドルの赤字に対し、1億7,100万ドルのコア赤字を計上しました。毎年実施されるLTC見直しにより、米国会計基準（GAAP）に基づく準備金が1億7,300万ドル増加しました。これは主に、足元の介護費用インフレ前提の上方修正による1億4,500万ドルの影響と、罹患率前提の改定による7,500万ドルの影響によるものです。保険料率前提による5,000万ドルのプラス効果がこれらを一部相殺しました。

経営陣は、ポートフォリオ見直しに伴う将来の予想投資収益向上により、GAAP上は時間をかけて認識されるものの、経済的には準備金前提悪化の影響がほぼ相殺されると述べました。また、CNAはLTCポートフォリオにおける13億ドルの法定準備金マージンを改めて確認しました。

投資および資本

固定利付有価証券およびその他の投資からの収益は前年同期比4%増の5億8,700万ドルとなりました。連結固定利付ポートフォリオの実効利回りは前年同期の4.8%から5.0%に上昇しました。

CNAは9月30日までに13億ドルを超えるデュレーション長期化取引を実施し、利回り5.5%のデュレーションの短いBBB+格付け債券を利回り6.2%のデュレーションの長いA格付け債券へ交換しました。実現損失はごく僅かでした。

AOCIを除く株主資本は125億ドルでした。法定自己資本および余剰金は合計112億ドルで、AOCIを除く負債資本比率は19.2%でした。

経営陣の見通し

• 経営陣は、現在の金利環境に基づき、第4四半期の固定利付有価証券およびその他の投資からの収益を約6億ドルと見込んでいます。
• 2026年通期の固定利付有価証券およびその他の投資からの収益は、23億ドルを超えると予想されています。
• CNAは、2026年の損害保険事業費率について約30%を妥当な巡航速度（ランレート）と引き続き捉えています。
• 経営陣は2026年第4四半期および2027年に向けて規律ある保険引受を維持し、リスク調整後リターンが適切な分野で成長を追求する一方、価格設定や条件が不十分な事業の縮小を進める方針です。

リスクと注目分野

• ソーシャル・インフレーションは引き続き超過損害賠償責任保険の保険金支払結果に影響を与え、損害進展パターンを長期化させており、パンデミック以降の最近の事故年度における準備金積み増しの一因となっています。
• ナショナルアカウント財産保険、労災保険、およびインターナショナル部門の複数の種目において、依然として料率低下の圧力が顕著です。
• カタストロフィ損害は合計7,800万ドルとなり、主に猛烈な暴風雨活動によるものでした。
• 金利上昇によりAOCIにおける固定利付有価証券の未実現損失が増大したものの、経営陣はこれらの損失が投資適格債券に集中しており、信用悪化を示すものではないと説明しました。
• LTCの業績は、介護費用インフレ、罹患率、契約継続率、ならびに承認された保険料率値上げの達成状況に対して引き続き高い感度を持っています。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Douglas Worman

[ The transcript was presubmitted by CNA Financial Corporation. No live call was conducted for the Q3 2026 earnings call. ]

In the third quarter, we achieved disciplined growth and high-quality underwriting results underpinned by prudent loss ratio selections and strong execution of our underwriting strategies to optimize our portfolios in the current marketplace. We maintained the higher underlying loss ratio we established in the first half of 2026, and our expense ratio was below 30% even as we continue to substantially invest in talent, technology and artificial intelligence (AI) to augment the efficiency and effectiveness of our operation.

Core income was $203 million in the third quarter. Core income includes an unfavorable after-tax impact of $137 million from our annual Life & Group long-term care (LTC) reserve assumption review. However, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions, the anticipated benefit of which is not reflected in current period earnings under GAAP accounting. We had another quarter of strong investment income at $635 million, robust cash flow from operations of $654 million and 5% year-to-date growth in book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the impact of dividends. LTC and investments will be detailed in Scott's remarks.

The P&C all-in combined ratio was 97.0% in the quarter, including 2.8 points, or $78 million, of catastrophe impacts. Catastrophes were primarily driven by severe storm activity. Prior period development had no impact on the combined ratio in aggregate as additional reserve strengthening in excess casualty in recent accident years was balanced by favorable reserve changes in other classes of business. The P&C underlying combined ratio was 94.2% compared to 91.3% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 29.7%, consistent with the first half of the year. The P&C underlying loss ratio was 64.1%, consistent with the prudent assumptions set earlier in the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter. Long run

loss cost trend assumptions were unchanged in the quarter.

Net written premium growth was 3% and new business was up 1%. P&C renewal premium change was 3% and rate change improved to 2%, compared to last quarter when rate change was flat. Rate remained under pressure in national accounts property, workers' compensation and many areas of our International segment, but the rate decline was modestly mitigated compared to last quarter. Notably, as we indicated last quarter, when we cannot achieve appropriate pricing along with terms and conditions we will walk away and lean into areas where we believe we can achieve a more appropriate return. As an example, national accounts property gross written premium was down 12% in the quarter, with new business down 32%.

Turning to each of the three P&C operating segments, in Commercial, the all-in combined ratio was 99.7% compared to 92.7% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe impacts were $70 million, or 4.8 points of the combined ratio, compared with just 2.7 points in a very benign quarter last year. Prior period development added 2.4 points to the combined ratio, or $35 million. This was primarily from reserve strengthening in excess casualty, partially offset by favorability in workers' compensation and property.

The reserve strengthening in excess casualty is primarily from recent post-pandemic accident years. The excess casualty risk adjusted return continues to be accretive to the overall portfolio; however, we have continued to see the impacts of social inflation influence the trajectory of claim outcomes and lengthen development patterns. We have quickly reacted to elevated activity compared to prior expectations in our reserve assumptions across our different excess casualty portfolios.

The underlying combined ratio was 92.5% compared to 90.0% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 65.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, as we maintain the philosophy addressed in our remarks for the first quarter. The expense ratio improved to 26.2% in the quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter below 27%.

In Commercial, net written premium grew 2% and new business also grew 2% to $332 million. Retention in the quarter was 83% with significant variation by business unit and class, similar to last quarter. While we continue to see opportunities in the portfolio, there are areas across many portions of the portfolio where we chose to walk away given current market conditions where pricing, terms and conditions are not appropriate. Commercial segment rate change increased to 2% in the quarter. Rate was high single-digit in classes most impacted by social inflation.

For Specialty, the all-in combined ratio was 96.8% and the underlying combined ratio was 96.7% compared to 93.3% in the prior year quarter. There was no prior period development in the aggregate. The underlying loss ratio was 62.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter for the reasons we discussed previously. The expense ratio of 33.6% was in line with the first half of the year.

In Specialty, net written premium grew 4% in the quarter and new business was up 5% to $137 million. Retention overall was 83%. Renewal premium change was 5% and rate change was 4% in the quarter. Rate remained strong at 8% in our healthcare business. In our affinity business, rate was up to 4% and retention was 80%, as we executed underwriting actions on portions of our professional errors and omissions programs. Financial and management liability lines rate change improved to 2%.For International, the all-in combined ratio was 86.1% compared to 91.8% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe losses were 2.1 points compared to 0.6 points in the prior quarter. Prior period development was favorable by 10.1 points in the quarter, or $35 million, compared to no prior period development in the aggregate in the prior year quarter. Favorable development was concentrated in the property, professional liability and management liability classes of business. The underlying combined ratio was 94.1%, up from 91.2% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 59.8%, consistent with the first half of 2026 and up from 58.5% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 34.3%.

International net written premium increased 4% in the quarter, or 6% excluding currency fluctuations. New business declined by $8 million to $86 million in the quarter. Retention remained strong at 87% as we hold onto profitable business in this segment. Rates were down 4% in the quarter, and renewal price change was down 2%. The environment in which our international unit operates continues to be highly competitive. Despite the competitive environment and some of the volatility it can cause, it remains an important contributor to our overall operation, and we continue to see tremendous potential there going forward.

Scott Lindquist

CNA's third quarter core income was $203 million compared with $409 million in the prior year quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month core return on equity of 8.6%. The decrease in core income reflects a $137 million unfavorable after-tax impact from our annual LTC reserve assumption updates. However, as detailed later in the Life & Group remarks, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions. Under GAAP accounting, the anticipated benefits of these portfolio actions are not immediately reflected in earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.

Excluding the LTC assumption review impact, the quarter continued to reflect stable underlying underwriting performance and strong investment results.

Our P&C expense ratio was 29.7% for the third quarter and 29.9% year to date in 2026. Despite continued investments in talent, technology and AI capabilities, our expense ratio has remained below 30% in five of the last six quarters. We continue to believe an expense ratio around 30% represents a reasonable run-rate for 2026.

The P&C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was flat in the current quarter. Favorable development in workers' compensation, property, surety and International was offset by unfavorable development in excess casualty, and professional and management liability. The P&C paid-to-incurred ratio was 74% for the quarter and 76% year to date in 2026. Paid losses can vary from quarter-to-quarter based on claim settlement activity and other factors.

Our Corporate segment produced a core loss of $23 million compared with a core loss of $25 million in the prior year quarter, which includes interest expense on our corporate debt and certain other expenses.

Consistent with our historical practice, we intend to review our asbestos and environment pollution reserves during the fourth quarter.

Turning back to the Life & Group segment, we recorded a core loss of $171 million for the quarter compared with a core loss of $22 million in the prior year quarter. The current quarter results include a $137 million after-tax charge from our annual reserve assumption review. As in prior years, we performed a comprehensive review of all the assumptions underlying our LTC reserves, which include cost of care inflation, morbidity, persistency and premium rate actions, using a valuation date of June 30, 2026. As detailed on slide 15 of the earnings presentation, the assumption updates resulted in a $173 million increase in GAAP reserves.

Notably for this year's assumption updates, we strengthened our near-term cost of care inflation assumptions, increasing the GAAP reserve by $145 million, and we revised morbidity assumptions to reflect actual experience on richer benefit policies, increasing the GAAP reserve by $75 million. Partially offsetting was a $50 million favorable impact from our premium rate assumptions, reflecting actual rate achievement above expectations from approvals across a number of states.

As part of the annual reserve assumption review, we also evaluate the supporting investment portfolio and related future cash flows which consider any changes in portfolio characteristics as well as updated near term interest rate expectations. As of the June 30, 2026 evaluation date, we estimate an increase in future investment income almost entirely offsetting the unfavorable reserve assumption changes. This is driven by

the impact of portfolio actions taken in the second quarter of 2026 to incrementally increase fixed income portfolio duration with higher quality, higher yielding securities through a series of duration extension trades. The fixed income duration extension trading program continued into the third quarter with over $1.3 billion of trades executed this year through September 30th, exchanging shorter duration BBB+ rated bonds at 5.5%

yield for longer-duration, A rated bonds yielding 6.2%, with a negligible realized loss on these trades. As I noted earlier, under GAAP accounting, the economic benefits of these recent portfolio actions are not immediately reflected through earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.Importantly, the annual review also reaffirmed our view that the LTC business maintains a substantial statutory reserve margin of $1.3 billion.

In sum, our third quarter LTC reserve assumption updates and accompanying LTC investment portfolio review further solidifies our belief that the block remains appropriately reserved and the overall economics of the block remain stable.

In addition to the investment portfolio actions just noted, we continue to make meaningful progress in actively managing and reducing the risk of our LTC business through policy inforce actions. During 2026, we received thirty rate increase approvals averaging 20% and have effectively doubled average premium rates since original pricing. Our policy buyout program has completed approximately 12,000 buyouts through roughly $400 million of payments since 2020. As a result of these actions as well as through natural run-off, policy counts have declined by 50% since 2015, and we further expect another 40% decrease over the next decade.

Finally, we believe our locked-in GAAP basis LTC reserves have reached a plateau level. The larger Individual LTC block is mature with an average attained age of 83 and is in the latter half of its reserve run-off. The younger Group LTC block, which features less risky policy benefit features and was more appropriately priced, will have reserves plateau at levels less than half that of Individual LTC. From where we are as to the maturity of the LTC block and underlying characteristics, we currently view the financial risk of the block as contained and expect it to continue to decline over the remaining run-off.

Turning to investment results, net investment income was $635 million in the third quarter compared with $638 million in the prior year quarter.

Fixed income and other investments generated $587 million of income, up 4% from the prior year quarter. Our A-rated fixed income portfolio continues to provide consistent contributions to core income, benefiting from a growing asset base and favorable reinvestment rates. The effective income yield of our consolidated fixed income portfolio was 5.0% in the third quarter, up from 4.9% in the second quarter and 4.8% in the prior year quarter. We continue to be able to reinvest at rates above our P&C portfolio effective income yield of 4.6% and our Life & Group portfolio effective income yield of 5.8%.

Looking ahead, based on the current interest rate environment, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be approximately $600 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be over $2.3 billion.

Our limited partnership and common stock portfolios returned a $48 million gain, or 1.5%, in the quarter compared with a $71 million gain, or 2.5%, in the prior year quarter. The lower return was primarily driven by our hedge fund portfolio, which produced a loss in the current quarter following particularly strong results in the second quarter of 2026. Our private equity portfolio reported steady returns this quarter. As a reminder,

private equity funds, which comprise the majority of our limited partnership portfolio, generally report on a quarter lag.

At quarter-end, our balance sheet remained very strong. Stockholders' equity excluding AOCI was $12.5 billion, or $46.11 per share, a 5% increase from year-end 2025 adjusting for dividends. Including AOCI, stockholders' equity was $10.2 billion, or $37.80 per share, which was impacted by a decrease in AOCI reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on unrealized losses in our fixed income portfolio. These unrealized losses are not indicative of credit deterioration and remain concentrated in investment-grade securities. Statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies was $11.2 billion, and our debt-to-capital ratio excluding AOCI was 19.2%.

Operating cash flow was $654 million for the quarter and $1,696 million for the first nine months of 2026. Cash flows continue to reflect higher paid losses for the year aligned with portfolio growth, partially offset by strong premium collections.

The effective tax rate on core income was 17.5% for the third quarter, reflecting a favorable provision-toreturn adjustment primarily related to foreign subsidiary taxes. Excluding this item, the effective tax rate was approximately 21.2%, generally consistent with our expectations for the full year.

Finally, we are pleased to announce our regular quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 16, 2026.

Douglas Worman

We continue to be pleased by the operating fundamentals of our P&C businesses while maintaining a prudent posture in reserves. Our P&C operation produced core income of $397 million. Our expense ratio has remained below 30% in each quarter this year, as we continue to improve efficiency while reinvesting those gains in AI, technology and talent across the value chain to strengthen our capabilities and position us for long-term growth. We continue to be optimistic based on the results we are broadly seeing play out from our AI initiatives. These unique solutions have allowed us to continue to be more effective across our specialized operations.

In our run-off Life & Group segment, the results of the annual LTC reserve assumptions review reinforced our view that the block is appropriately reserved and its financial risk is contained.

Looking forward, we remain focused on driving disciplined execution in our portfolio to optimize our book given the varying current market conditions. That discipline will not change in the fourth quarter of the year and as we enter 2027 - we will continue to focus on growing in areas where we can achieve appropriate risk adjusted returns and be willing to walk away when we cannot.