Entergy（ETR）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：ガイダンス下限を引き上げ

重要なポイント

• エンタージーが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EPSは1.98ドルとなり、猛暑ならびに気象要因を調整した住宅用および産業用売上高の伸びが好材料となりました。
• 同社は2026年の調整後EPS見通しレンジを絞り込み、下限を0.10ドル引き上げました。経営陣によると、小売り売上高の好調により、信頼性とレジリエンス（強靭化）への追加支出も可能になったとのことです。
• エンタージーは2027年〜2030年の設備投資計画に約15億ドルを追加しました。これには、グーグルのウエストメンフィス・キャンパス拡張に伴う蓄電池設備向けの6億ドルが含まれています。
• 経営陣は引き続き、好調な売上高が8%を超える利益成長軌道を支えると予想しており、2027年〜2030年の見通しレンジの上半分の業績を見込んでいます。
• エンタージーの開発パイプラインには、7〜12GWのデータセンター潜在需要と、24か月以内に正式契約に至る可能性のある従来の産業用顧客からの3〜5GWが含まれています。
• 同社は、ムーディーズのFFO/有利子負債比率の指標が対象期間を通じて15%以上を維持すると見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および業績ハイライト

エンタージーによると、気象要因を調整した売上高は住宅用と産業用の両部門で増加しました。産業用の伸びは、データセンターや一次金属顧客の予想通りの稼働拡大を反映しています。8月の電力系統の同時最大需要は24,000MWhを超え、これまでの過去最高を2%上回りました。エンタージー・ミシシッピのピーク需要は、主としてデータセンターの稼働増加により11%増加しました。

エンタージー・アーカンソーは、ウエストメンフィス・キャンパスの拡張に向けてグーグルとのサービス契約を改定しました。同社によると、契約に基づきグーグルは新規投資額および同社負担分の系統コストをカバーすることが義務付けられています。エンタージーはこの拡張により、予測される顧客の電気料金節約額が少なくとも5億ドル増加し、傘下電力会社全体でのFair Share Plusによる見込み節約額は少なくとも75億ドルに達すると見込んでいます。

エンタージー・アーカンソーは、グーグルとの契約、6億ドルの蓄電池投資、およびビッグ・アイランド・ソーラー（Big Island Solar）のクリーン属性に関する電力購入契約の承認を申請しました。2027年前半を予定している規制委員会の承認が得られれば、この拡張事業は2028年に稼働を開始する見込みです。

テキサス州では、出力1,200MWのオレンジ・カウンティ先進火力発電所が完成し、稼働を開始しています。エンタージーのプロジェクト案件一覧には現在、31基の天然ガス発電所に相当する23GWが控えています。10基の発電所がさまざまな建設段階にあり、9基はルイジアナ州で規制審査中、4基は供給計画の後半に組み込まれています。経営陣によると、8基が新たな成長機会に向けて活用可能とのことです。

また、エンタージーは主にルイジアナ州とテキサス州で1,000マイルを超える送電線計画を有しており、その約85%が500kV送電線で構成されています。関連投資の約70%が承認を受けており、計画総延長の約3分の1が建設中です。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は、エンタージーの2026年調整後EPS見通しレンジの下限を0.10ドル引き上げる一方で、長期見通しは据え置きました。同社は引き続き、好調な売上高が8%超の成長軌道を支えると予想しており、現在は2027年〜2030年の見通しレンジの上半分の業績を見込んでいます。

同社の2027年〜2030年の株式調達（エクイティ）必要額は、現在、全設備投資額の10%〜15%という目標レンジを下回っています。その必要額の40%以上はすでに契約済みであり、2028年まで十分カバーされています。経営陣は、現在の約9%〜9.5%という水準はタイミングによるものであり、設備計画全体として10%〜15%の目標を維持していると改めて説明しました。

7〜12GWのデータセンター向けパイプラインおよび3〜5GWの従来の産業用パイプラインにおける潜在的プロジェクトは、現在の見通し期間内に貢献を開始する可能性があります。ただし経営陣は、そうした機会を支える本格的な発電資産の稼働は、一般的に2030年以降になると述べています。

リスクと注目点

グーグルのアーカンソー州における拡張計画は、引き続き規制当局の承認待ちとなっています。またエンタージーは、エンタージー・ルイジアナの保留中の手続きに関連する約14億ドルの送電投資を、現在の設備投資計画から除外しています。

大口顧客から要望されているクリーン発電への追加投資は、まだ計画に反映されていません。その時期と規模は、提案依頼書（RFP）や自社建設プロセスを通じたプロジェクト選定によって決定されます。

経営陣は、業界全体における資材費および人件費のコスト圧力を挙げました。標準設計、一括購入、ドローンや建設技術の活用がこれらの圧力を緩和するのに役立っているものの、リスクが完全に解消されたわけではないと述べています。

レシプロエンジンなどのより迅速な発電オプションは高コストになる場合があります。そのためエンタージーは、より迅速または費用対効果の高い容量を提供できる領域において、蓄電池、既存の原子力・ガス発電所の出力引き上げ（アップレート）、および太陽光発電を優先しています。

アナリストQ&Aのハイライト

• 設備投資計画の上振れ要因：今回追加された15億ドルには、保留中であるルイジアナ州の14億ドルの送電投資機会や、潜在的なクリーン発電の追加プロジェクトは含まれていません。
• 再生可能エネルギー投資の時期：メタ（Meta）のビスタ（Vista）開発を支援する太陽光プロジェクトは、現在の予測期間の終盤に設備投資計画に組み込まれ、2030年以降に及ぶ可能性があります。
• 産業用需要：経営陣は、アナリストの間で議論された産業用の前年比伸び率の低下について、根底にある事業活動の変化ではなく比較対象のタイミングによるものだと述べました。同社は以前公表した2026年から2030年までの産業用売上高成長率16%を維持しました。
• 代替ファイナンス：エンタージーは、エンタージー・ルイジアナのウォーターフォード6発電所を対象とした2件目のBTS（ビルド・トゥ・スーツ）リースを完了しました。また、主として2030年以降のプロジェクトに向けて投資余力を拡大するため、プライベート・クレジットやその他の手段も検討しています。
• レジリエンス（強靭化）支出：経営陣は最終的に第2段階のレジリエンス計画を見込んでいますが、第1段階は早くても現在の見通し期間の終盤まで続くだろうと述べました。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning. My name is Jay, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Entergy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Liz Hunter, Vice President of Investor Relations for Entergy Corporation. Please go ahead.

Liz Hunter

Good morning. Thank you, Jay, and thanks to everyone for joining this morning. We will begin today with comments from Entergy's Chair and CEO Drew Marsh; and then Kimberly Fontan our CFO, and will review results. In today's call, management will make certain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, which are set forth in our earnings release, our slide presentation and our SEC filings. .

Entergy does not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Management will also discuss non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures are included in today's press release and slide presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website. And now I will turn the call over to Drew.

Andrew Marsh

Thank you, Liz, and good morning, everyone. Today, we are reporting very strong progress for the quarter. That includes not only financial results, but also business and regulatory accomplishments. Our adjusted earnings per share was $1.98 driven by growth in a hot summer. With results to date and our biggest quarter behind us, we are narrowing our 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range, raising the bottom by $0.10. In addition, the hot summer allows us to reinvest in reliability and resilience for the benefit of our customers and communities.

We also remain very confident in our longer-term outlook. Kimberly will review our financial results and outlook in more detail. Turning to our customer update. I'll start with Energy Arkansas's recently announced service agreement amendment with Google for the expansion of its West Memphis campus. Consistent with our fair share plus pledge and the rate payer protection pledge, this agreement ensures that Google will cover its fair share, which includes the cost of the new investments as well as their share of system costs.

The expansion will create incremental bill benefits for our Arkansas customers, increasing Entergy Arkansas's expected fair share plus customer bill savings by at least $500 million and bringing the total to at least $7.5 billion across Entergy's utility companies. We anticipate that Google's expansion will generate new jobs, new tax revenues and economic activity, which will significantly benefit the West Memphis community.

In connection with the agreement, Entergy Arkansas filed request for approval of its contract with Google, $600 million of investment for battery storage systems and a purchase power agreement for Big Island Solar to provide clean attributes. Pending commission approval targeted for the first half of 2027, the expansion is expected to begin ramping in 2028. Beyond Arkansas, we continue to see several positive indicators, which will support further growth. For example, Entergy states rank among the top 10 nationwide for growth in new business applications. GDP has risen significantly across all of Entergy's regions since the pandemic, reflecting sustained economic expansion and a study by the Louisiana Economic Forecast Group projects that the state will add more than 55,000 jobs over the next 2 years.

Entergy's advantages, including the one-stop shop of our vertically integrated business solid strategy for operations, operational success and commitment to our customers continues to drive customer interest in our service area. And we are putting in the legwork to attract new businesses to our states. To that end, we were named a top utility and economic development by Site Selection magazine for the 19th straight year. All of this is why we have a strong pipeline of projects in varying stages that are not in our base plan.

Data center interest remains strong and in the range of 7 to 12 gigawatts. Our traditional industrial segments continue with discussions for 3 to 5 gigawatts. We see these projects as having the potential to convert into signed agreements within the next 24 months and we don't include every call that we receive, which would be significantly larger. I'm also proud to note that Entergy is 1 of 5 recipients of EEI's 2026 National Key Accounts Award for outstanding customer engagement.

Importantly, this award is determined by corporate customers themselves. This is a validating milestone for our ongoing efforts to put our customers at the forefront of every decision we make. At the same time, we remain excited about the opportunities still ahead to do even more. As our work to meet our customers and communities' expectations has ramped higher over the last few years, our employees have transformed every corner of our company, in some cases, multiple times.

While our work has expanded, our number of employees has not increased significantly. That's because our employees are working smarter and developing innovative solutions that leverage our execution strategy of scale, strategic partnerships and standardization to manage risk, schedule and cost efficiency and help us better -- create better outcomes for our customers' communities. I am profoundly grateful for their innovation as well as their hard work and dedication.

I mentioned the hot summer earlier, we also had strong industrial sales growth, and we saw new records for peak demand. In August, our system experienced more than 24,000 megawatt hours of coincident peak demand, up 2% from the previous peak. The largest change came from Entergy Mississippi, which was 11% higher as a result of data center ramping. Through it all, our employees performed very well, maintaining system reliability and managing costs. The Orange County Advanced Power Station, or OCAPS, is complete and operational delivering 1,200 megawatts of power to our Texas customers at a cost far less than a similar plant would require is starting construction today.

This plant is an important addition for Entergy Texas, where we are experiencing strong population growth and industrial expansion. In addition to much needed capacity, the plant is among the most efficient in the world and will support reliability for all customers of Entergy Texas. OCAPS is the first of many new power plant projects. and our employees and contractors are taking lessons learned from this plant and applying those innovations to other projects. In fact, a significant portion of our workforce from OCAPS is now at other project sites bringing our expectations on continuous improvement as well as health and safety culture.

At the same time, employees from our other sites participated in the commissioning and start-up of OCAPS, to lower risk ahead of their own commissioning. In addition, our standardized design has allowed us to improve efficiency and schedule to a roughly 50% reduction in the time required for engineering, which helps mitigate exposure to rising labor costs. Similarly, the standardized design combined with our scale has allowed us to perform batch purchases of construction materials and create access to construction heavy equipment to improve outcomes on cost and schedule versus market benchmarks today.

Finally, we are deploying technology in the form of drones to inspect equipment, types and the site overall as well as robotic welding technologies to improve quality and speed of outcomes. All of this allows us to remain very competitive in the construction of combined cycles. With the completion of OCAPS, we now have 23 gigawatts or 31 natural gas plants in the queue. 10 plants are in various stages of construction. We also have 9 plants in regulatory review in Louisiana with schedules to support decisions later this year. We have an additional 4 plants that are in our supply plan, but later in the cycle. That leaves 8 units that are available for new growth opportunities.

For transmission, we have more than 1,000 miles of lines planned primarily in Louisiana and Texas and 85% of which are 500 kV lines. Approximately 70% of the investment is already approved with 2 projects currently under regulatory review expected to conclude this year. And about 1/3 of the line miles are already under construction. These projects will support growth from our traditional industrial customer base as well as from data centers. The work will also create efficiency and resilience benefits for all our customers.

Similar to our generation projects, these transmission projects demonstrate our employees' capability to execute at scale with innovation. Much of the terrain for these new lines is remote and difficult to access. Our teams have responded with innovations in foundations and pole design that make more cost-effective equipment available to do the work. You may recall the video from Investor Day that demonstrated an innovative design that allows hands-free setting of cross-arms using helicopters.

And today, the team is making pioneering use of drone technology to string the high-voltage power lines in a fraction of the time. The combination of these innovations significantly reduces the risk of injury, the number of workers and the time required for construction. In addition, these innovations are helping mitigate much of the material and labor cost pressure we are seeing across the industry. Originally deployed on the Commodore to Waterford project, we can replicate these gains across our other projects as we continue to seek more innovation to drive even better outcomes for our customers and communities.

To fuel this growth and in this case, quite literally, in the third quarter, we signed natural gas firm transportation agreements with large midstream and pipeline companies for 1.325 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. That's enough for Entergy to supply fuel to 10 new combined cycles in Louisiana. This supports our generation growth and also help build new pipeline capacity that benefits our industrial customers' growth. We continue to make progress on resilience to better serve our customers with our $2 billion Phase 1 accelerated resilience programs.

For example, Entergy Louisiana is now working on a $270 million grid resilience project just outside New Orleans. -- that will replace more than 500 poles in other electrical infrastructure, enhancing resilience and reliability for our customers. Brands are also a way to support resilience with affordability, delivering benefits to customers at a much lower cost. Entergy New Orleans broke ground on a grant-funded grid hardening project that will upgrade 94 poles and directly benefit more than 1,900 customers.

In addition, the Department of Energy's Spark program recently awarded our utilities $14 million to deploy advanced dynamic line rating technology across more than 14 million -- across -- excuse me, more than 1,000 miles of existing transmission lines in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. This investment will boost the amount of power we can safely move using the infrastructure we already have. Ultimately, our grid will be stronger and more reliable to support the region's economic growth.

We appreciate the DOE's partnership and its commitment to strengthening energy resilience in our region through innovation. Moving to regulatory matters. Putting our customers first remains a cornerstone of outcomes that benefit all stakeholders. Over the past quarter, we continued to move steadily through multiple proceedings. Beginning with the rate case in Arkansas, customer growth as well as disciplined capital and operational management allowed Entergy Arkansas to settle with staff on terms that result in essentially no rate change.

Important components included 9.7% ROE and a 47.5% equity capital structure after adjusting for deferred taxes. We anticipate a commission decision before the end of the year. We appreciate the staff effort to get to a settlement to support credit, which is a piece of the puzzle that enables benefits for our stakeholders, especially customers by keeping financing costs low. Working together, we are able to bring new businesses to the state, new jobs for our service area, more revenues for our local economies and significant business benefits to our existing customers through Fair Share Plus.

Our stakeholders in Arkansas remain aligned to do this work together, and we can do our part to support economic development and protect our customers when we have a strong balance sheet. In Louisiana, we filed a settlement agreement with staff and Walmart in our EVAS docket, which covered the majority of key issues. The hearing was held in early October and we expect the commission to take up the matter at its December business and executive meeting. Louisiana Public Service Commission also approved the $1.2 billion Babel to Webre transmission project at its October meeting. This enables us to support the strong growth in the state, also providing reliability and resilience benefit for all our customers.

We've requested approval for additional resilience and reliability investment in Louisiana and Entergy Louisiana also requested to extend its formula rate plan for 1 year. We are targeting a decision in that docket by the end of the year. Finally, Entergy New Orleans received approval to extend its formula rate plan for 4 more years into 2030. As you know, it's been a busy regulatory year. and we still have much to go before the end. We're continuing to work constructively with our stakeholders to resolve concerns and create value for our customers and communities. We'll see many of you at the EEI Financial Conference, where we'll continue to share our differentiated growth story.

It is anchored in what I just said, a firm commitment to create value for our stakeholders, starting with our customers. We are delivering generational growth for our region and economic development that benefits the customers' communities we serve. Kimberly Fontan and I will be there along with our operating company CEOs and including David Board in his new role as Entergy Texas President and CEO. Many of you may remember David from his days in Investor Relations. We look forward to continuing this conversation with you at the conference.

And now I'll turn the call over to Kimberly, who will review our financial results and outlook.

Kimberly Fontan

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, everyone. We had another very productive quarter. I'll walk through our financial results as well as our guidance and outlook, and I'll provide a look ahead to EEI. Our adjusted EPS was strong at $1.98, as shown on Slide 4. This was higher than last year due to several drivers. As Drew mentioned, it was warmer this year. Even after normalizing for weather, we saw strong sales growth in both the residential and industrial sectors. Industrial growth included data center and primary metals ramping consistent with our expectations. .

We also saw the effects of investments made for our customers, including regulatory actions as well as higher depreciation expense, taxes other than income taxes and financing costs. Other drivers consistent with last quarter's progress against guidance comments, including higher other O&M as we deploy dollars in vegetation management and other maintenance in support of reliability for our customers. higher interest expense at parent and a higher share count from settling equity forwards.

Slide 5 summarizes our credit ratings and affirms that our credit metric outlooks remain better than rating agency thresholds. For financings in the quarter, we settled equity forward totaling just over $900 million in September. We issued junior subordinated notes totaling $1.5 billion, which received 50% equity treatment supporting balance sheet health and managing equity needs for our growth. And Entergy Louisiana issued $1 billion in bonds, the majority of which will finance new growth. We split the notes between 10- and 30-year tenures with an average rate of less than 6%.

Our planned financings for the year are now complete. We will provide credit outlooks at EEI, but I'll give you a preview. We continue to expect strong FFO to debt throughout the outlook period. And we expect Moody's FFO to debt metric to be at 15% or better in all years. As we roll forward a year, our outlook will shift from the 5-year view we provided at Investor Day to 4 years of 2027 through 2030. Our equity plan is summarized on Slide 6. We have been proactive in addressing our equity needs. We've taken significant price risk off the table, and we have ample time to raise capital.

For our 2027 through 2030 need, more than 40% is already contracted, which takes us well into 2028. Our equity needs for the 4-year outlook period are just below our targeted range of 10% to 15% of our total capital plan supported by a number of elements including strong operating cash flows from the business backed by our disciplined capital prioritization and constructive regulatory mechanisms. Production tax credits and investment tax credits are credit supported in the near term and provide customer benefit over the longer term.

In October, we received $256 million in cash from the sale of our 2025 production tax credits. As a reminder, we only include nuclear production tax credits in our forecast once they are earned. We've accessed traditional sources of capital, including through our ATM program and junior subordinated notes. We've also expanded our tools and our approach to customer contracting with hyperscale customers, ensuring these customers pay their Fair Share, protecting other customers and supporting our credit.

We've been innovative in expanding our investment capacity by accessing less traditional markets. For example, in October, we closed on our second build-to-suit lease. This one for Entergy Louisiana's Waterford 6 plant. These structures are competitive with traditional financing, supporting our credit and managing our equity needs during the construction period. And we are listening to our customers as we continue to advance additional growth opportunities. We're exploring other nontraditional financing tools, which will continue to support more growth and our credit and expand our investment capacity while ensuring large customers pay their Fair Share.

This work is in the early stages and is expected to support longer-term projects that would close beyond our 4-year outlook period, further extending our growth rate past 2030. Our adjusted EPS guidance and outlooks are shown on Slide 7. As Drew mentioned, we are narrowing our 2026 guidance range, raising the bottom by $0.10, higher-than-planned retail sales year-to-date enable us to manage the business and flex spending in areas that benefit our customers.

Looking beyond 2026, our outlooks remain unchanged as we continue to expect strong sales to support our greater than 8% trajectory. Drew discussed Entergy Arkansas' contract expansion with Google. We added approximately $600 million to our plan as a result of this development. In total, we increased capital approximately $1.5 billion for 2027 through 2030, inclusive of the investments to support the Google expansion. The incremental spend also includes transmission investments and updates that come out of our annual planning cycle.

The expected earnings impact from this increase moves us into the upper end of our outlook ranges. Drew and I, along with our operating company leaders will be in Phoenix in less than a week where we will talk about our strong customer growth story as well as our plans to invest in reliability to better serve our customers. We have a solid base plan consistent with our strategic objectives. We'll also talk about upside opportunities from the potential for higher sales growth as well as other investments.

Today, we have provided our adjusted earnings per share outlook and a high-level view of our preliminary capital and equity plans through 2030. At EEI, we will provide more details on these outlooks. We have clear line of sight to achieve our outlook, and we have significant opportunities before us. And now we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Wells Fargo.

質疑応答

Constantine Lednev

It's actually Constantine here for Shahriar. Congrats on a great quarter. Maybe starting off on the moving pieces with the new 4-year CapEx plan looks like a modest step-up versus the prior plan. Does that fully account for the data center deals, including the transition in the clean gen options that were mentioned before or maybe another way to ask, is there any other moving pieces that would contribute to potential upside kind of beyond what the 4-year plan currently in the case?

Kimberly Fontan

Sure. Constantine, the $1.5 billion that was added was the $600 million the Arkansas Google expansion, which was primarily the 2 batteries. And then just general puts and takes in the normal capital process. You'll see that in transmission and generation. What's not there -- as you may recall, there's about $1.4 billion of transmission related to the Entergy Louisiana transaction that's pending before the Louisiana Commission, we have not added that. We're for that decision to come out of the regulatory environment.

And then certainly, there's still the clean opportunity that you referenced. So to the extent that our customers have asked for incremental clean in many of their contracts, as those get selected, fees or through self-build processes, those will get added as well. So opportunity to add capital in the plan, but this is really just those few things that I mentioned at this point.

Constantine Lednev

And just to clarify that wouldn't kind of be rolling into the rate base EPS outlook at the EEI, correct?

Kimberly Fontan

Yes. I wouldn't expect that to come in at EEI now.

Constantine Lednev

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe shifting to the regulatory outcomes with Arkansas and flat revenue. Obviously, a great outcome is flat base rates something that you would anticipate to occur kind of more often going forward? And given the revenue sufficiency, does that imply a narrowing of the ROE lag, maybe just any areas of focus for '27 like the Texas GRC or FRPs?.

Andrew Marsh

Well, I think -- this is Drew, David. So I think that the -- Constantine, sorry. I think that the other jurisdictions will depend more upon what the investment requirements are relative to the customers themselves. So in Louisiana and Texas, for example, we had significant resilience investment ongoing. And we also have just traditional sales growth that is requiring generation ads and transmission. So those do not have data centers covering all their costs. Now in the case of Louisiana, there is obviously, a large data center there, and that is helping contribute to offset some of those costs, but not necessarily to make it go back to flat like we were in Arkansas.

I think overall, our build trajectory is still around 4%. So we're still continuing to work on that and find ways to make it even lower. But that is reflecting growth in our traditional our traditional customer base.

Constantine Lednev

Excellent. Understood. Separate congratulations from the team to data board you guys soon. .

Andrew Marsh

Awesome. Thanks, Costa. .

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan..

Jeremy Tonet

At the Investor Day and earlier in the commentary on the call, you spoke about Energy's ability to enhance self-build capabilities. And where do you see this progress, I guess, so far and specifically helping competitiveness in RFPs and when we think about the renewables there. Just wondering how you think progress has been made and enhances your competitive position there?

Andrew Marsh

That's a good question. So we are continuing to work on that in both the solar area and in the CCS space. We are making good progress, but we don't have any specific announcements to make right now. We continue to work on it. We are finding real progress in the CCS space, in particular with innovations to try and bring the overall construction cost down and make that technology much more competitive and hopefully to fit within the frameworks of the incentives that are available today. .

But we're not at the point yet where we can announce success or a commercial transaction. And we are having conversations with customers about these things and trying to find our way through. So we remain optimistic, but we don't have an opportunity to announce anything right now.

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. That's helpful. Maybe continuing just a little bit more here. I think you talked about 2.5 gigawatts renewables investment to serve Meta's Vista project and part of the upside potential there. And so how should we think about, I guess, timing, your competitiveness here? What could possibly fall into plan over time?

Kimberly Fontan

Jeremy, it's Kimberly. As we've talked about the solar, I would expect the solar investments for that could certainly come in, in the back end of the current forecast period and then extend beyond our 2030 period. That process, many of those go through our RFP processes. Drew talked about expanding our build -- our own build to build capability. But certainly, we could see some upside in this period and then beyond that as well.

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a quick last 1 for me. Resilience pla Phase Ia filed for an investment that's in the plan period. Can you remind us of expected timing of Phase 2 and beyond? And -- could this -- could there be any overlap in timing of the plans here? Or is this kind of like beyond the plan period?

Andrew Marsh

We haven't given a whole lot of thought to Phase 2 at this point, although we certainly would expect that there would be one. We're working right now on 1a. Phase I would, I think, be near the end of the outlook period at the earliest.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo of Jefferies.

Paul Zimbardo

The first, just a clarification, I think for Kimberly. On the upper half of the range, does that applied for the '27 through 2030 range? Or is that later in the plan? I just wasn't clear if that's for every year of the plan.

Kimberly Fontan

Yes, that's a look at just the before year period, the reference to the full 4-year period. .

Paul Zimbardo

Okay. Okay. Great. And then the other one more a big picture question. Just I know you've talked about in the past, could you provide an update on any efforts on exploring some more speed-to-market generation options, whether reciprocating engines or something else for those customers looking for more speed to market?

Andrew Marsh

Yes, sure, Paul. This is Drew. We are looking at some of that stuff. It's can be very, very expensive. We are looking for things that can extend the assets that we already have. So primarily as a shorter-term and more cost-effective option for customers. So that includes things like we announced with Google, some batteries to help with peak because Arkansas is long on baseload energy. And so getting some more peaking capacity in Arkansas is helpful.

We're looking at uprates of power plants, whether it's nuclear or gas units to help out. And we're also looking at some solar, which we think can get in fairly quickly. Those are the primary mechanisms, but we are looking at some of these other options and having conversations with customers about them. We haven't seen a whole lot of interest from that because of the price challenges. But it's certainly a piece of the conversation.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine of Citigroup.

Ryan Levine

Is there any upside in the 7 to 12 gigawatts or the 3 to 5 gigawatts of load that you identified potentially within 24 months that could be associated with the recent venture global announcement, realize those as announces behind the meter, but do you anticipate any opportunity, both on -- either on the generation or on the T&D side associated with that opportunity?

Andrew Marsh

Yes, Ryan, this is Drew. We haven't -- we're not in a position to talk specifically about that kind of thing with Venture Global, but certainly, we are open to partnerships with anybody that is interested and are always willing to have those kinds of conversations. And there is a tremendous amount of growth opportunity in our service territory. So we continue -- right now, we're talking still about the 7 to 12 and 3 to 5, that is enough to sustain our growth at current rates well into the future.

So I don't -- I wouldn't comment on any potential expansions at this point other than, say, just sort of repeat what we've already said. And again, in regards to the Venture Global piece, we're excited they are a customer of ours. And so we are excited for them to be interested in further investment in our service territory that will certainly benefit our local communities and our local economies. But at the same time, we have a lot of generation building capability ourselves, and we're competing to do that on our own. So we have a lot of success, as you know.

So we'll see where that goes. But we are very confident that we can continue to compete in our service territory.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Sharon Wang of Evercore ISI.

Unknown Analyst

So on the industrial demand, I saw that growth was about 5% this quarter versus roughly 10% in Q2. Could you please help us understand any change in the underlying activity there? How should we think about that trajectory into '27.

Kimberly Fontan

Yes, Sharon, it's Kimberly. There's no underlying change from what we expected there. You're starting to get comparisons year-over-year to where you saw ramping last year. So it's just it's -- as you continue to go through the quarters, you're continuing to see increases, but the year-over-year may be different on a quarter basis depending on when things ramped last year. You may recall from our Investor Day, we talked about 16% growth rate in the sales for industrial from '26 through '30. And we don't see anything moving us from that. We announced Google expansion today, which is certainly continuing to support increased sales there.

So structurally, nothing has changed. What you're just seeing is some typical quarter-over-quarter differences based on what was in last year versus this year.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And then on the expanding Google agreement in Arkansas, could you help us understand how much is already reflected in your capital or earnings outlook versus incremental upside?

Kimberly Fontan

Sure. The $600 million, which is for the 2 batteries was added in this quarter, you'll see that at EEI as well. So that's the investment that was added, and then you'll see incremental sales as a result of that agreement, but that's the primary investment change that you'll see associated with that. .

Operator

Our next question is from the line of David Paz of Wolfe Research.

David Paz

Actually, just a clarification, I think you were asked about the upper half of the outlooks, but I believe can release at the upper end of the growth outlook in your prepared remarks. Is that correct?

Kimberly Fontan

I said upper half. So the upper half from '27 through '30 that's consistent with -- I think you'll find that in my comments, but just to clarify, that's what that was. .

David Paz

Just on the 7 to 12 and 3 to 5 gigawatts that you expect to convert to ESAs within the next 24 months. Could that start to ramp up in your current plan -- so I guess, through 2030 or would that since post 2030, your expectation?

Kimberly Fontan

Yes. I think the answer is both, David. You could certainly see some ramping in the current period and then certainly to get full assets like the CCTs that are in our Turbine Hugh that are available, those are going to come online afterwards. So it's an extension really of the growth rate that we've seen today well into -- well beyond 2030. But you could see some opportunity in the current window as well. .

David Paz

Okay. Great. Just on the alternative financing that you discussed, I think -- I believe you said those would be mostly post 2030 at least for CapEx beyond that. Just can you give us any more examples of what that those could look like?

Kimberly Fontan

Sure. We -- as I mentioned, we just closed on the build-to-suit lease. That's the second one. That's the first of the kind in the utility sector, and we've used that effectively here. So this is a continuation of that process around accessing markets that perhaps are less traditional. So it could be private credit or other tools that help us expand our investment capacity. Again, much of that would likely show up outside our current outlook period. And I would fully expect to own those assets over time, but this is just helping us get our customers on faster, expand the capacity, support the balance sheet, help and really extend that outlook beyond 2030. .

Operator

And our last question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel of Scotiabank.

Andrew Weisel

Great updates. Just 1 quick clarifying one. On equity you mentioned that the updated needs today are below the targeted 10% to 15%. Is that something that we should expect going forward? You guys are consistently adding CapEx to the plan. What should we expect going forward?

Kimberly Fontan

Andrew, I would expect to continue to target that 10% to 15% for a total capital plan. That's going to vary based on specific incremental assets, but what you're seeing right now, which is in the 9% to 9.5% range is just a function of timing around the capital adds. But I would still expect to target that 10% to 15% over the over the total capital plan. .

Andrew Weisel

Okay. So as you add more capital near term or over time, 10% to 15% is the number that we should be expecting forward?

Kimberly Fontan

The whole capital plan, yes. .

Operator

With no further questions, that concludes our Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Liz for some final remarks. Please go ahead.

Liz Hunter

Thank you, Jay, and thanks to everyone for participating this morning. Our quarterly report on Form 10-Q is due to the SEC on November 9 and provides more details and disclosures about our financial statements. Events that occur prior to the date of our 10-Q filing that provide additional evidence of conditions that existed at the date of the balance sheet would be reflected in our financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. .

Also, as a reminder, we maintain a web page as part of Entergy's Investor Relations website called Regulatory and Other Information, which provides key updates of regulatory proceedings and important milestones on our strategic execution. While some of this information may be considered material information, you should not rely exclusively on this page for all relevant company information. And this concludes our call. Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.