FISI 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：過去最高の純利息収入と商業ローンの成長

主要ポイント

• フィナンシャル・インスティチューションズ（NASDAQ: FISI）が発表した2026年第3四半期の普通株主に帰属する純利益は1,960万ドル、希薄化後1株当たり利益（EPS）は0.99ドルとなった。
• 資金利益（純金利収入）は前四半期比2%増の5,430万ドルと四半期としての過去最高を記録し、純金利マージン（NIM）は3.70%と横ばいを維持しつつ、前年同期比では5ベーシスポイント（bp）拡大した。
• 総貸出金は第2四半期比で2%超、前年同期比で約6%増加した。商業ローンは前四半期比で3%増、前年同期比で10%超増加した。
• 投資顧問報酬は、クーリエ・キャピタル（Courier Capital）の運用資産残高40億ドルに支えられ、前四半期比で約2%増、前年同期比で約11%増となった。
• 年率換算の純貸倒償却率は第2四半期の11ベーシスポイントから33ベーシスポイントへ上昇した。経営陣は現在、2026年通期の比率を約30ベーシスポイントと予想している。
• 経営陣は、平均資産利益率（ROA）1.30%以上、平均株主資本利益率（ROE）12.5%以上、効率性比率（エフィシエンシー・レシオ）57%未満などの収益性目標や、コア収益予想を維持した。

主要財務データ

事業および業績動向

商業ローンが引き続き主な成長ドライバーとなった。商業用不動産ローン事業は、ニューヨーク州北部における建設ローン需要とミッドアトランティック市場での活発化の恩恵を受けた。商工業ローン（C&I）も、新規実行額の上昇がクレジットライン利用率の低下を相殺して拡大した。

経営陣によると、バッファロー、ロチェスター、シラキュースおよびミッドアトランティック市場全体で商業ローンのパイプライン（案件候補）は引き続き堅調である。既存残高の返済が進む中で継続的な案件の補充が行われており、パイプラインの規模は2026年初頭とほぼ同水準を維持した。

オンバランスの住宅ローンポートフォリオは第2四半期からわずかに増加し、前年同期比では2%強増加した。売却・回収受託を行っている住宅ローンは前四半期比で2%超、前年同期比で約7%増加した。ホーム・エクイティ・ローン（住宅担保ローン）の申し込みは前年同期比で30%増加し、需要は10月まで続いている。

個人向け間接ローンは前四半期比で約1%増加したものの、前年同期比では7%減少した。FISIはニューヨーク州全域の360社以上の新車ディーラーを通じてこれらのローンを実行しており、適切な価格規律とプライム層の信用の質を維持することを引き続き優先していると述べた。

投資顧問報酬は非金利収入の最大の後押しであり続けた。クーリエ・キャピタルは新規事業活動や採用投資に支えられ、2026年9月30日時点での運用資産残高が40億ドルに達した。

預金の増加は広範にわたったが、前四半期比での最大の要因は公金預金の季節性であった。経営陣は有価証券の担保設定要件を軽減するため、公金預金の一部を相互預金商品へシフトし続けている。また、トレジャリー・マネジメント（資金管理サービス）への投資も商業預金の獲得に寄与した。

FISIは当四半期中に18万5,000株以上の普通株式を買い戻した。自社株買いプログラムの開始以来、同社は約68万6,000株を買い戻している。

業績予想・ガイダンス

• 経営陣は通期の貸出金および預金の伸び率ガイダンスを維持し、預金については引き続き1桁台前半の増加を目指している。
• 同社は、利息生息資産のリプライシングに伴い、9月の米連邦準備理事会（FRB）による利上げが第4四半期の利回りマージンを後押しすると見込んでいる。9月時点の3.72%に対し、12月までに月次純金利マージンを約3.75%に引き上げることを目指している。
• 2026年通期の純貸倒償却率は約30ベーシスポイントになると見込まれている。
• 投資顧問報酬の2025年比での増収率は、従来の1桁台半ばというガイダンスから上方修正され、10%台前半の成長が見込まれている。
• 通期のスワップ手数料ガイダンスは、従来の100万〜200万ドルから75万〜120万ドルへと引き下げられた。
• 会社所有生命保険（COLI）収入は、2026年に1,100万ドルを超えると予想されている。
• 通期の非金利費用の伸び率は1桁台前半にとどまり、効率性比率は57%未満を維持する見通しである。
• 実効税率は、従来の16.5%〜17.5%から狭まり、16.5%〜17.0%となる見込み。
• 収益性目標は、平均資産利益率（ROA）1.30%以上、平均株主資本利益率（ROE）12.5%以上を維持している。
• 2027年の計画に向けて、経営陣は200〜300ベーシスポイントのプラスの営業レバレッジと、55%に近づく効率性比率を目指している。より詳細なガイダンスは第4四半期決算発表時に公表される予定である。

リスクと注目点

当四半期中に年率換算の純貸倒償却率が大幅に上昇したが、これは以前開示された事業再生中の特定の商業顧客に対する最終的なリスクエクスポージャーを一部反映したものである。同取引に関連する差し押さえ物件は、その他の所有不動産（OREO）へ振り替えられた。

商業ローン貸出における競合は依然として激しく、スプレッドを圧迫している。経営陣は、今後の成長には適切な価格規律と十分なリターンの維持が不可欠であると強調した。

第3四半期中に資金調達コストが上昇し、平均有利子負債のコストは6ベーシスポイント上昇して2.67%となった。経営陣は、資金調達コストの低下が営業レバレッジ拡大の潜在的な要因になり得ると指摘した。

非金利収入は、事業法人向けバック・トゥ・バック・スワップ取引の減少と27万4,000ドルのリミテッド・パートナーシップ損失の影響を受けた。経営陣は、パートナーシップ収入は原資産たる投資のパフォーマンスによって変動する可能性があると述べている。

公金預金およびそれに関連する有価証券の購入には引き続き季節性がある。経営陣は、公金預金の担保要件に伴い第3四半期に増加した有価証券ポートフォリオが、第4四半期には減少すると見込んでいる。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

金利マージンの感応度について、経営陣は貸出金ポートフォリオの約43%がプライムレートおよびSOFRに連動する変動金利であり、さらに13%がイールドカーブの5年超の部分から改定される変動金利であると説明した。9月の利上げは四半期終盤に資産利回りの改善に寄与し始めたが、時期的な理由から第3四半期における影響は限定的であった。

貸出金の伸びについて、経営陣は商業ローンのパイプラインが引き続き好調であり、積極的に補充されていると述べた。貸出成長の加速は、目標を上回る2027年の営業レバレッジ達成を後押しする可能性があるものの、価格規律を損なうことはないと強調した。

預金について、経営陣は根底にある増加傾向についてトレジャリー・マネジメントへの投資と、商業ローンの実行と顧客預金の獲得をセットで進める戦略によるものだとした。個人向け、中小企業向け、および法人向けバンキング全般における主取引金融機関としての関係維持が、引き続き戦略的優先事項となっている。

資本配分について、経営陣は株価が割安とみなされている間は自社株買いが引き続き魅力的な選択肢であるものの、資本投入は自律的成長やその他の戦略的機会とのバランスを取る必要があると述べた。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Financial Institutions Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce Ms. Kate Croft, Director of Investor Relations for the company. Ms. Croft, you may begin.

Kate Croft

Thank you for joining us for today's call. Providing prepared comments will be President and CEO, Marty Birmingham; and CFO, Jack Plants. He will be joined by additional members of the company's leadership team during the question-and-answer session.

Today's prepared comments and Q&A will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to yesterday's earnings release and investor presentation as well as historical SEC filings, which are available on our Investor Relations website for a safe harbor description and a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to forward-looking statements.

We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures intended to supplement and not substitute for comparable GAAP measures. Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations can be found in the earnings release filed as an exhibit to Form 8-K or in our latest investor presentation available on our IR website, www.fisi-investors.com. Please note that this call includes information that may only be accurate as of today's date, October 30, 2026.

I will now turn the call over to President and CEO, Marty Birmingham.

Martin Birmingham

Thank you, Kate. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. In the third quarter, our team delivered healthy balance sheet growth while maintaining solid profitability. Commercial lending strength drove loan growth of more than 2% from the end of the second quarter and nearly 6% year-over-year. Net interest margin of 3.7% was stable relative to the linked quarter and up 5 basis points from the third quarter of 2025. This supported stronger net interest income generation, which reached a new quarterly high of $54.3 million. Investment advisory income, the company's leading contributor of noninterest income, increased about 2% and more than 10% from the linked and year ago quarters, respectively.

Our efficiency ratio remained below 57% for the quarter, reflecting our strong focus on sustained profitability. Our strong capital position allowed us to repurchase more than 185,000 shares of common stock during the quarter. This performance came together to support net income available to common shareholders of $19.6 million or $0.99 per diluted share. While this was lighter than the linked quarter, our year-to-date performance has been very strong and supportive of the targets we established at the start of the year. To that end, our core earnings guidance is unchanged, though we did tighten some ranges based on year-to-date results.

We are affirming our guidance for full year loan and deposit growth, net interest margin, returns on average assets and equity and efficiency ratio. On the credit side, we now expect an annual net charge-off ratio of about 30 basis points at the midpoint of the previous range of 25 to 35 basis points. In addition, the high end of our tax rate guidance has been lowered, and we've made some refinements to noninterest income. Jack will walk through these during his discussion of the income statement in a few minutes.

Before that, I'd like to provide some commentary on third quarter balance sheet trends. Commercial lending continues to lead overall loan growth. Total commercial loans increased 3% from June 30, 2026, and more than 10% from September 30, 2025. Growth in the quarter was driven by commercial real estate lending, including strong construction mortgage activity in Upstate New York and increased activity in our Mid-Atlantic market. Commercial and industrial loans also increased as originations more than offset lower line utilization as compared to the second quarter. We continue to see compelling commercial lending opportunities across Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse regions.

While competition remains intense and has created spread pressure, the quality of our existing commercial pipeline underpins our confidence in the opportunities ahead. We believe that the pipeline positions us well for the remainder of the year and heading into 2027. Third quarter credit activity included the transfer of a foreclosed property to other real estate owned, which reflected the final exposure to a previously disclosed commercial business relationship that had been in workout.

Turning to consumer lending. Our on-balance sheet residential portfolio was up modestly during the quarter and up just over 2% year-over-year. Sold and serviced residential mortgages were up more than 2% and approximately 7% from the linked and year ago quarters, respectively, as our model is weighted toward a held-for-sale approach in support of fee income. Home equity lines of credit have been a bright spot with third quarter applications up 30% year-over-year, and we've seen sustained demand throughout October.

Consumer indirect loans increased about 1% from the second quarter of 2026 and were down 7% year-over-year. We originate these loans through a network of more than 360 new car dealers across New York State and maintain discipline on spreads and prime credit mix. That supports solid credit metrics as compared to national trends. Our third quarter delinquency ratio, which is inclusive of loans 30 and 60 days past due and those on nonaccrual, is more than 100 basis points lower than the recent national average for loans just 30 and 60 days past due. As we approach the end of the year, we expect typical seasonality to impact both volume and credit metrics for this line of business.

Investment securities were up 4.5% from the second quarter and a little more than 2% from the year ago quarter. The linked quarter increase was primarily due to public deposit seasonality, and we expect the portfolio to come back down in the fourth quarter. Period-end total deposits of $5.47 billion were up more than 3% from June 30, 2026, and 2% from September 30, 2025. Linked quarter growth was led by public deposits, which peak in the first and third quarters of each year, but deposit growth was broad-based with all categories contributing.

On a year-over-year basis, public deposits were down modestly, partially offsetting growth in all other categories. We continue to focus on shifting some public deposits to our reciprocal portfolio, which helps to relieve collateral requirements in the securities portfolio. The retention and acquisition of core nonpublic deposits remain high priorities, and we continue to target low single-digit deposit growth for the full year.

Now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jack for additional details on our results and guidance.

Jack Plants

Thank you, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results underscore the strength of our core businesses, disciplined balance sheet management and continued focus on profitability. Loan growth drove an increase in average earning assets, while effective balance sheet management supported a stable net interest margin of 370 basis points. Net interest income increased 2% from the prior quarter to $54.3 million. The investment portfolio yield of 4.46% was consistent with the linked quarter, and the average loan yield picked up 1 basis point to 6.08%. The cost of average interest-bearing liabilities increased 6 basis points to 2.67% for the third quarter.

We expect that the latest Fed rate hike in September will have a positive impact on our margin in the fourth quarter as earning assets reprice and we actively manage our funding costs. Noninterest income of $10.5 million was down 4.5% from the linked quarter. Key driver of this variance was lower commercial back-to-back swap activity in the third quarter following a very strong second quarter. We now expect swap fees for the year to come in between $750,000 and $1.2 million, down from the previous guidance of $1 million to $2 million.

We also recorded a loss of $274,000 for limited partnership income in the third quarter compared with a loss of $140,000 in the second quarter. As a reminder, revenue associated with these partnerships, which are primarily small business investment companies, fluctuates given the performance of underlying investments. Investment advisory revenue growth was again a highlight, up about 2% quarter-over-quarter and nearly 11% year-over-year, leading us to increase our full year guide from the mid-single-digit growth to low double-digit growth versus 2025.

Our wealth management subsidiary, Courier Capital, is the primary driver of this revenue stream. With $4 billion in assets under management as of September 30, this continues to be an important component of our diversified fee income. Year-to-date, new business activity has been strong, reflecting investments we've made in attracting top talent. Company-owned life insurance revenue of $2.9 million was up 2% from the linked quarter. COLI income is now expected to exceed $11 million for 2026. We reported quarterly noninterest expense of $36.8 million, up about 3% from the linked quarter. Salaries and benefits expense of $19.7 million was up 3% from the second quarter as expected, driven by costs related to our self-insured medical plan that typically increase as we approach year-end.

As a reminder, we modeled higher benefits expense in our guidance based on our 2025 experience. Professional services expense of $1.5 million was $212,000 or 17% higher than the linked quarter, primarily driven by the timing of typical external audit-related expenses. There were also a couple of one-time items included in other noninterest expense that together totaled about $325,000. This included write-downs associated with other real estate owned and a legal settlement to resolve an employment-related matter. Prudent expense management remains a top priority, while we maintain positive operating leverage, and we remain on track to limit full year noninterest expense growth to the low single digits and to achieve an efficiency ratio below 57%.

We reported an effective tax rate of 16.9% in the third quarter compared to 17.3% in the second quarter. We've tightened our annual tax guidance to between 16.5% and 17%, down from between 16.5% and 17.5%. Annualized net charge-offs to average loans were 33 basis points in the third quarter compared to 11 basis points in the linked quarter. As Marty mentioned, we now expect this ratio to be approximately 30 basis points for full year 2026.

Our allowance for credit losses were fairly stable, down 1 basis point to 99 basis points of total loans as of September 30, 2026. We remain comfortable with the allowance and associated coverage ratio given our strong asset quality. Overall, our third quarter results underscore our ability to translate disciplined execution into growth, with commercial lending leading the way.

Our full year profitability targets remain intact, outlined by a return on average assets of at least 130 basis points and a return on average equity of at least 12.5%. Despite the impact of AOCI from the securities portfolio, our balance sheet remains a source of strength with a TCE ratio of 8.4% and a CET1 ratio of 11.36%. This provides us with flexibility to pursue growth while returning capital to shareholders. Together, these measures underpin our capital allocation priorities, supporting organic loan growth, investing thoughtfully in our business and returning value to our shareholders. That concludes my remarks.

I'll now turn the call back to Marty.

Martin Birmingham

Thanks, Jack. Overall, our year-to-date performance has been strong, and we are well positioned to maintain momentum through the fourth quarter. Our team remains focused on credit-disciplined loan growth, core nonpublic deposit growth, prudent expense management and disciplined execution against our strategy. Our focus on these priorities remains centered on delivering profitable growth and creating long-term value for our shareholders.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Damon DelMonte from KBW.

質疑応答

Damon Del Monte

First question, just probably for Jack here on the margin. I think you had said that you should probably see a little benefit to the margin from the rate increase that we saw in September. Just wondering if you could kind of walk us through some of the thoughts behind that outlook. And then also, if we do get another rate hike here in December, kind of how you think the margin would be responding as we go into 2027?

Jack Plants

Yes. Thanks, Damon. So as you may recall, about 43% of our loan book floats off of prime and SOFR. And then we've got about 13% of the remaining book that is adjustable from a 5-year point of the curve on end. We've seen some immediate repricing from that rate hike in the back half of September. It has a little bit of a muted impact on monthly margin just given the timing of the adjustment for the quarter.

But as we wrapped up September, our monthly margin was about 3.72%. And as we look to the rest of the year, I think we're targeting December wrapping up around 3.75%. So the earning asset side of the portfolio continues to benefit for the rest of the year. If there's a hike in December, the impact would be fairly muted on the quarterly margin.

Damon Del Monte

Got it. And would you expect those dynamics to continue as we go into '27, given the additional rate hike?

Jack Plants

No.

Damon Del Monte

Okay. Great. And then I guess just on loan growth, solid quarter. I think you guys had kind of messaged earlier in the year that you thought the growth would be more in the back half of the year. And I think we saw a good second quarter and now a good third quarter. Just kind of -- I know you've kind of reiterated the mid-single digits for the year, but anything that's kind of standing out here in the fourth quarter that really gives you confidence for another solid quarter?

Martin Birmingham

I just -- it's Marty, Damon. Thanks for the questions this morning. Our pipelines continue to be pretty solid and consistent with where they've been in the year-over-year periods going back to '25, '26 and the outlook for '27. So that's across the board in CRE and C&I as well as generally upstate for the most part. But even our Mid-Atlantic loan team is showing growth in their opportunities that they're looking at. But specifically, how that translates to the outlook, Jack, how would you?

Jack Plants

Yes, I would say that we've been actively replenishing our pipelines across all portfolios, and they remain strong. From a sizing perspective, the pipeline is around the same size as it was when we entered the year. So our commercial lending folks have been really active in replacing the cash flow that comes off and generating new clients to backfill. So I'm optimistic about our ability to generate loan growth on the commercial side through year-end.

Damon Del Monte

Okay. Great. Appreciate that color. And then just one more quick one for me. Jack, I noticed like the average securities were down linked quarter. Just curious, should we expect there to be kind of a build back up? Or do you think it's going to be kind of run-rating at a lower level now?

Jack Plants

There will be a seasonal build back up for collateral to secure public deposits that come in at the end of September and into the first part of October. Those purchases are largely on short-term T-bills. We've been actively working with our public depositors to try to transition their collateralization needs into our reciprocal deposit portfolio to relieve some of the need to use investment securities.

Operator

The next question is from Manuel Navas from Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

Could you go into a little more detail on your strong deposit flows? Like, how much was seasonality in public funds versus maybe some commercial wins? And just kind of future -- discuss the deposit initiatives that you're leaning into most.

Jack Plants

Yes. This is Jack. I'll take that one, Manuel. So to remove some of the seasonality, I look at the year-to-date performance, and we've really had strong performance across the commercial platform for the first 9 months of the year. That momentum has really been driven by the investment that we made and have continued to make in our treasury management platform. So typically, we'll lead with a loan origination and then bring the deposit profile from that customer along, and we're really seeing some solid wins.

Martin Birmingham

Manuel, the other thing I just would add is that primacy is a fundamental strategic focus across all of our business activities, primacy of relationship on a consumer basis, small business, commercial. So all of our sales teams are aligned and they are incented to try to maximize the opportunity and balance utilization of our balance sheet in terms of loans with deposits that come with that. So we feel good about the progress we've made, reinforcing alignment, and the outcomes are starting to follow that.

Manuel Navas

Appreciate that. As you kind of think about where you're ending the year with that NIM and 3.75%, I think that should be really helpful. But is that -- what are kind of some of the puts and takes to potentially targeting positive operating leverage next year? And is that first a goal? And is that -- what are some of the puts and takes for that?

Jack Plants

Yes. This is Jack. I'll take that one. We're in the probably middle phases of building out our 2027 plan. But our target right now is positive operating leverage of 200 to 300 basis points and an efficiency ratio that's approaching 55%.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate that. What would be the biggest ways you could potentially outperform it?

Jack Plants

It would really come from some sort of accelerated loan growth, but we're really disciplined in where we're pricing. So right now, that's where our target is. We'll be able to share more details when we come out with our fourth quarter earnings and our guidance for full year 2027.

Martin Birmingham

So we have our eye on loan growth and disciplined pricing and ensuring we have adequate spreads. The other thing related to deposits, like every bank of all sizes, to the extent we can continue to drive our cost of funds down, that would be an accelerator of performance and operating leverage.

Manuel Navas

The buyback was nice this quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about where it fits in your capital deployment? Are you going to keep this pace? How does it fit in versus organic growth? How does it fit in versus conversations on M&A?

Martin Birmingham

Yes. I think that's exactly it. It kind of really depends. It's really been a really nice opportunity for us. I think since we initiated our program, we purchased a total of 686,000 shares. The earnback in the early part of the program was a year or less and most recently, about 3 years or less. So as long as we're undervalued, we know the risk of execution, and it's a very straightforward capital decision for the company. But of course, we are on a path and driving growth. So we're balancing all those issues.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Birmingham for closing comments.

Martin Birmingham

Thank you very much for joining us. We look forward to continuing to keep you updated on our progress on our next call.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for your participation.