アマルガメイテッド・ファイナンシャル(AMAL)2026年第3四半期決算説明会:過去最高益と業績見通しの上方修正
アマルガメイテッド・フィナンシャルは、2026年第3四半期のコア純利益が過去最高の3460万ドル、純収益が1億ドルを突破したと発表した。バランスシート上の預金は87億ドルに増加し、経営陣は2026年の純利息収入見通しを3億4100万〜3億4200万ドルへ引き上げた。第4四半期は無利息の政治関連預金の減少に伴うマージンのわずかな縮小が見込まれるものの、預金構成と資産利回りの改善により、2027年中のマージン拡大が視野に入っている。主なリスクとして選挙関連預金の流出や金利上昇に伴う借換リスクが挙げられ、経営陣はC-PACEの持続的成長や厳格な信用管理を通じて対応する方針である。
要点
- コア純利益は過去最高の3460万ドル(希薄化後1株あたり1.14ドル)に達し、純収益は初めて1億ドルを突破しました。
- 純利息収入は過去最高の8790万ドルに増加し、純利息マージンは3.77%を維持しました。コア効率性比率は約49%を維持しました。
- バランスシート上の預金は当四半期中に2億5600万ドル増加して87億ドルとなりました。政治関連預金は四半期末時点で約20億ドルを維持していましたが、選挙関連支出の加速に伴い、10月15日時点で約17億ドルに減少しました。
- 商業ローンは約9300万ドル増加し、C-PACE評価額は5420万ドル増加しました。利回りの低い住宅ローンおよび消費者向けソーラーローンの残高は、計画通り減少を継続しました。
- 経営陣は2026年の純利息収入の見通しを3億4100万〜3億4200万ドルに、コア税引前引当金繰入前利益の見通しを1億9300万〜1億9400万ドルに引き上げました。
- 第4四半期の純利息マージンは、無利息の政治関連預金の減少に伴いわずかに縮小する見込みですが、経営陣は預金構成と資産利回りの改善により、2027年中にも再びマージンが拡大する可能性があると見ています。
主要財務データ
| 指標 | 2026年第3四半期実績 | コメント |
|---|---|---|
| コア純利益 | 3460万ドル | 過去最高水準 |
| コア希薄化後EPS | 1.14ドル | コア純利益に基づく |
| 純収益 | 1億ドル超 | 初めて1億ドルを突破 |
| 純利息収入 | 8790万ドル | 過去最高水準 |
| 純利息マージン | 3.77% | 当四半期中維持 |
| コア平均資産利益率(ROA) | 1.44% | 過去最高水準 |
| コア平均有形株主資本利益率(ROTCE) | 16.57% | 過去最高水準 |
| コア効率性比率 | 約49% | テクノロジー、人材、物件への投資にもかかわらず安定 |
| 総バランスシート規模 | 約96億ドル | 経営陣の目標規模に到達 |
| バランスシート上預金 | 87億ドル | 当四半期中に2億5600万ドル増加 |
| バランスシート外預金 | 11億ドル | 流動性管理を支援 |
| 政治関連預金 | 約20億ドル | 前四半期比で横ばい。10月15日時点では約17億ドル |
| 商業ローン成長額 | 約9300万ドル | 四半期増加額 |
| C-PACE成長額 | 5420万ドル | 堅調な四半期実行額 |
| 年率換算純貸倒損失率 | 20ベーシスポイント | 当四半期中に低下 |
| 正常先債権比率 | ポートフォリオの約97% | 信用パフォーマンスは全体として安定を維持 |
事業および業績の動向
アマルガメイテッド・フィナンシャルは、預金基盤をより利回りの高い資産に再配分する一方で、利回りの低い住宅ローンや消費者向けソーラーローンの自然減(ランオフ)を進めました。貸出金、PACE、従来の有価証券全体で利息を生み出す資産が1億4100万ドル増加した一方、ランオフ・ポートフォリオからは再投資向けに約3900万ドルのキャッシュが発生しました。
C-PACEは引き続き資本配分の優先事項となりました。当四半期に新規実行されたC-PACE資産の利回りは約7%でした。経営陣は、市場環境次第ではあるものの、今後の新規実行利回りは7.75%に達し、2027年中には8%近くに達する可能性があると述べています。同行はまた、実行パートナーを拡大しており、規模、地域、物件タイプを問わず案件を追求しています。
同社は現金、借入枠、および未担保有価証券を合わせて約50億ドル保有しています。経営陣は、この流動性により借入に頼ることなく選挙関連の預金流出に対応できると述べています。
アマルガメイテッドは、AI活用ツール、テクノロジーインフラ、および人材への投資を継続しました。これらの取り組みは、業務を簡素化し、管理体制を強化するとともに、業務が複雑化することなく追加のビジネスに対応することを目的としています。
経営陣の業績見通し(ガイダンス)
| 2026年見通し項目 | 改定後のガイダンス | 従来の参照値 |
|---|---|---|
| 純利息収入 | 3億4100万〜3億4200万ドル | 従来の上限3億4000万ドル |
| コア税引前引当金繰入前利益 | 1億9300万〜1億9400万ドル | 従来の上限目標1億9000万ドル |
| 第4四半期貸倒引当金繰入額 | 約500万〜550万ドル | 経営陣は予測を維持 |
経営陣は、選挙サイクルが終息する第4四半期のバランスシート規模を横ばい(ニュートラル)と見込んでいます。第4四半期の純利息収入は第3四半期とほぼ同水準となる見込みですが、無利息の当座預金(DDA)残高から有利息預金へのシフトに伴い、純利息マージンはわずかに縮小すると予想されます。
DDAは第3四半期末時点で全預金の約42%を占めていましたが、第4四半期末までに約36%へ低下する見込みです。経営陣は2027年中にはDDA残高が回復し、資産利回りの向上とともにマージン拡大の可能性を後押しすると見込んでいます。
第4四半期の経費は、第3四半期と同水準か、わずかに増加する見込みです。二重家賃、移転費用、原状回復費用が引き続き発生しますが、経営陣は大幅なコスト急増は見込んでいません。これらのコストが一巡した後は、全体の経費水準(ランレート)を削減するのではなく、テクノロジーインフラや人材への投資に置き換わると予想されています。
リスクと注視すべき分野
- 選挙関連の政治預金流出は調達構成を変化させ、短期的には純利息マージンに対する圧迫要因となります。
- 以前開示されたワシントンD.C.地域の集合住宅(マルチファミリー)案件は、引き続き解決に向けた協議が進められています。経営陣は、価値の保全を図りつつ、一部の不稼働資産に対する債権売却の可能性を検討しています。
- 金利上昇により集合住宅向け融資の借換リスクが高まっています。同行は低レバレッジ取引を重視しており、今後の返済期日を注視しています。
- 経営陣は、消費者向けソーラーポートフォリオのパフォーマンスおよびCECL(現在期待信用損失モデル)関連の経済性が他の資本運用方法と比べて魅力的でないため、この減縮を加速させる方法を検討しています。
- C-PACEの持続的な成長は、クリーンエネルギー投資に対する規制面での支援に一部依存しています。
アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト
アナリストらは、経営陣のガイダンスが示唆する第4四半期の成長減速に焦点を当てました。同社は、この一時的な停滞について、長期的な収益トレンドの変化ではなく、主に政治関連DDA残高の通常の選挙サイクルによる減少に起因するものと説明しました。
預金価格設定(デポジットベータ)について、経営陣は現在のサイクルにおけるベータを確定させるのは時期尚早であると述べました。過去の利上げサイクルにおけるアマルガメイテッドの有利息預金ベータは40%弱であり、同社は資金調達コストが比較的安定して推移すると見込んでいます。
経営陣は、消費者向けソーラーポートフォリオから解放された資本の再配分先として、C-PACEが特に魅力的な投資先であると特定しました。同行は高金利がPACEファイナンスの需要を後押しすると見ていますが、第3四半期の実行額5420万ドルは四半期として高水準であり、すぐに同規模が繰り返されるわけではない可能性があります。
株主還元に関して、経営陣は自社株買いが引き続き株主還元戦略の一部であると述べました。同社は第3四半期前に自社株買い枠を4000万ドルに引き上げ、当四半期中にこれを実施しましたが、定型的なスケジュールに従って自社株買いを行っているわけではありません。
決算説明会(トランスクリプト)全文
決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト
経営陣による説明
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Amalgamated Financial Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.
[Operator Instructions] A replay of the call and the accompanying slides are available on our Investor Relations website. Please review the forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures on Slide 2. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Darby, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Jason Darby
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in our earnings call. With me today is Priscilla Sims Brown, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Additionally, Sam Brown, our Chief Banking Officer, is here for the Q&A portion of today's call. We'll keep our prepared remarks brief to limit repeating details you've already reviewed in the earnings materials. I'll now turn the call over to Priscilla.
Priscilla Sims Brown
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered another strong quarter, and I'm very pleased with both our results and the continued progress we're making against our strategy. What stands out to me this quarter is not simply the level of performance, but the consistency of our execution and the way the different elements of our strategy are increasingly reinforcing one another.
Our differentiated deposit franchise continues to provide a strong foundation for the bank. We are putting that funding and our capital to work deliberately, focusing on opportunities where we believe we can generate attractive risk-adjusted return while serving the customers and communities at the core of our mission. We saw that clearly in the balance sheet this quarter. On-balance sheet deposits increased $256 million during the quarter to $8.7 billion, while off-balance sheet deposits totaled $1.1 billion. Very notably, political deposits remained at approximately $2 billion while also moving beyond the peak of the prior presidential election cycle. Growth across our mission-aligned customer segments continue to demonstrate the strength, resiliency and diversity of our bank. We also maintained approximately $5 billion of cash, borrowing capacity and unpledged securities, providing substantial liquidity and strategic flexibility. That funding strength allowed us to deploy capital into nicely balanced opportunities across the balance sheet.
Commercial loans increased approximately $93 million during the quarter and C-PACE assessments increased approximately $54.2 million. At the same time, lower-yielding residential mortgages and consumer solar balances declined through planned runoff, allowing us to redeploy that capital into higher-performing assets. This is a good example of how we expect to continue converting the strength of our pipeline into attractive deployment opportunities in the quarters ahead.
Importantly, our focus remains on the quality and economics of that growth, not simply on adding assets. At the same time, we continue to invest for the future. During the quarter, we advanced several modernization initiatives -- we expanded the use of AI-enabled tools across the organization, and we continued building the technology foundation to support our long-term ambitions. These investments are designed to simplify how we operate, improve the customer and employee experience, strengthen our control environment and enable us to support more business without adding complexity at the same pace.
Just as importantly, we continued investing in our people. We strengthened their capabilities to better serve our communities and our customers. Taken together, this is the strategy at work. We are putting our differentiated funding base and capital to work more effectively while building the capabilities that allow us to serve our customers better and sustain stronger performance over time.
We're focused on creating greater value from the franchise we've built with the discipline and risk management that have always defined how we operate. Our strong balance sheet, differentiated deposit franchise, mission-driven customer base and disciplined execution give us the confidence in both where we are today and the opportunity ahead. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jason.
Jason Darby
Thanks, Priscilla. Last quarter, we discussed harvesting the earnings power of the bank. And this quarter, I'll spend some time talking about how that earnings power is showing up in the numbers. The earnings profile of the company continues to strengthen. Core net income increased to a record $34.6 million or $1.14 per diluted share. Net revenue exceeded $100 million for the first time in the bank's history.
Net interest income reached a record $87.9 million while maintaining a net interest margin of 3.77%. And core profitability metrics again improved to record levels as core return on average assets increased to 1.44% and core return on average tangible common equity increased to 16.57%. Collectively, these results demonstrate both strong and consistent performance.
We reached our target balance sheet size of approximately $9.6 billion this quarter by adding $141 million of interest-earning assets across the lending, PACE and traditional securities portfolios. Runoff loan portfolios generated approximately $39 million of redeployed cash -- and while we believe our balance sheet is well optimized, we are considering ways to accelerate reduction of our consumer solar loan portfolio as we continue pursuing productive revenue generation and future profitability. The scalability of the bank is starting to show.
Revenue growth allowed us to continue investments in our technology ecosystem and necessary talent and also absorb an expected increase in occupancy expense associated with our headquarters move. Our core efficiency ratio remained remarkably stable at approximately 49%, demonstrating the positive operating leverage embedded within the bank and providing a glimpse into the long-term value we believe is still ahead of us. Our key takeaway this quarter is that our outlook remains favorable.
Credit performance remained stable overall. Pass rated loans continue to represent approximately 97% of the portfolio. Annualized net charge-offs declined to 20 basis points, and we continue actively managing the previously discussed multifamily relationship. As another election cycle concludes in Q4, we expect to run a neutral balance sheet.
We are comfortable with our liquidity position and ability to limit both NII and margin volatility. With that, we are increasing our net interest income outlook for the year from a high end of $340 million to a range of $341 million to $342 million, but project modest margin compression in the fourth quarter related to the DDA, IBA deposit remix as the election cycle concludes. For core pretax pre-provision earnings, we are raising from the prior high-end target of $190 million to a new range of $193 million to $194 million, driven mainly by our strong Q3 performance. In upcoming quarters, you'll hear us talk about meaningful but responsible growth.
This means growing in a way that strengthens the bank rather than simply enlarging it. We're not attempting to become a larger bank for the sake of size. We are building a more productive bank. The objective is to generate stronger earnings, efficient returns and increasing operating leverage with less inherent structural risk. Said differently, the objective is to derive more value from each incremental dollar of asset growth.
We believe the strongest banks are not those that grow the fastest, but those that become more productive. That philosophy benefits all our stakeholders by requiring strong financial performance, expansion of our capacity to serve customers and scale a model for financial success and community impact. Ultimately, the point is, as Amalgamated grows, the voice and impact of the mission-driven communities we serve grows with us. And we're now ready for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question comes from the line of David Konrad with KBW.
質疑応答
David Konrad
Going through the pleasantries there, but I wanted to talk to Jason a little bit about the guide. Maybe run through a little bit of the NII because that seems off of a strong quarter of kind of flat next quarter and then PPNR looks to be down a bit quarter-on-quarter. I don't know if that's maybe seasonal fourth quarter expenses. So maybe kind of highlight a little bit more of the guide.
Jason Darby
So the fourth quarter is going to follow the natural cyclicality pattern that Amalgamated has just as election cycles conclude. And the NII probably will look very similar to the amount that we had in the third quarter as a result of really just the mix shifting that's going to happen through the funding base as the larger portion of DDA balances starts to decline to support the election conclusion.
So the NII has no real ability to lift from this period unless we decide to grow the balance sheet, which we have indicated we're going to leave a neutral balance sheet because our main focus is really to serve the liquidity needs and limit any volatility that's rolling through the NII vis-a-vis borrowings. So that's really the NII guide as a flattening, but I don't think that's going to be the trajectory.
I think when we start to get out into next year, we'll start to see NII lifting again, and we'll talk more about that when we get into the guidance issue that we'll give at the end of the fourth quarter. But I think this period coming up will be a little bit of the pause in the momentum of the growth in revenue in other areas of the bank while we get through the election conclusion.
Then on the PPNR side, I think the PPNR largely the growth is fueled by the outperformance that we had in this quarter. We're being modest in our expectations for NII, as I said. I think expenses will be generally close to where we are here in the third quarter, maybe tick up slightly. And on the noninterest income side, I think we had an outsized quarter this quarter just as a result of a valuation adjustment from an equity investment we had. So all things equal, I think that's where we are sitting with the PPNR guide. Our hope is we'll overperform, but want to give you what we think is the most reasonable expectation.
David Konrad
Great. And then maybe with the Fed move and we did one in December as well, what are your thoughts on deposit betas given the remix and what you think that will be in the next couple of quarters?
Jason Darby
Sure. So it's a little too early to tell just on this quarter alone how the deposit betas are behaving just because it happened such kind of late period at the end of this quarter and then there just wasn't a lot of movement from our pricing.
If you look at our average posted rates, actually ticked slightly down from quarter-over-quarter. So I don't have a great lens on just what that beta is going to look like. But if I thought about the historical for Amalgamated and the last rising rate cycle, which was the fastest one we've had in 50 years or so, the interest-bearing deposit beta was just under 40% throughout the entire cycle.
So I think the signal from us is that we're going to intend to be competitive on pricing. We're going to move with the market. Typically, we enjoy a lower beta just by natural flow than the market, but that doesn't mean we're trying to manage to that. And historically, I think we have been better than our beta assumptions. And I think that's an important thing, too.
So when we talk about our NII guide, which we'll give at the end of the fourth quarter in January, typically, we have very conservative beta assumptions, but usually, we do better than that. And hopefully, that will give you an indication of how we're thinking about deposit costs going through the cycle and what our betas might look like. But absent the beta discussion, I still think you can count on Amalgamated to have a very stable cost of funds trajectory. And I still believe this is very much an asset yield story as we get out into 2027 for the opportunity for potential margin expansion to continue.
David Konrad
Got it. And then maybe the last question for me. You kind of talked about looking for avenues to further reduce the consumer solar. Is there an opportunity -- I mean, the PACE product has been kind of a stable growth. Is there an opportunity to accelerate maybe C-PACE growth rates in 2027?
Jason Darby
Yes. I'm going to ask Sam to comment that in a moment, but I think that's exactly right. We are looking for ways to optimize our capital to move into PACE as a primary feature. There's other areas where we can deploy.
But the consumer solar portfolio, just given the way it's behaving the way that our CECL model is driving economics both in this quarter and into the future, really makes us want to accelerate movement of that portfolio liquidity into a different asset class like PACE. Sam, you can talk about our expectations for growth.
Sam Brown
Yes. Obviously, David, we're really excited about what we saw in PACE for this quarter with $54 million. I think this quarter was benefited from a lot of activity that I want to make sure we're being transparent about what the next quarter will look like.
That was a very high mark. That said, we really like PACE for forward reasons because PACE historically has had a really good reaction in rising rate environments. And so we hope that our opportunities for origination will actually expand here as rates continue to move and feel like that's a win for us.
We also saw a lot of great PACE production at both ends of the spectrum, both in large transactions but also in our small dollar program as well. So we're looking at ways we can continue to grow those opportunity sets and expand our origination partners. So we agree with you, we would love to be doing more and have that as a very strong target for us in terms of 3 legs of our asset generation stool.
Priscilla Sims Brown
I'll just underscore that point about the diversification of the PACE program this quarter, not only in terms of size, but also multiple geographies and property types. And I think a lot depends on regulatory support for clean energy investment. We think that, that will lend itself to sustainable C-PACE growth.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.
Stephen Moss
Nice quarter here. Maybe just following up here in terms of business activity. Just curious, given the rate volatility, how you guys are thinking about overall loan growth here going forward and wondering if you're seeing any impacts from higher rates with regard to multifamily or other commercial borrowers.
Sam Brown
Yes. Steve, it's Sam. So look, we are obviously making sure we're being responsive to the change out there. For us, rising rate environment, we really look at this across our 3 asset areas. In multifamily, it's really about managing our refinance risk and making sure that we're managing our credit standards and focusing on lower leverage deals because we want to continue that efficient NII growth that we've demonstrated. And we think we've got a really high-quality pipeline to do just that.
Certainly, looking out ensuring a long lead time on any maturities that are coming due, you've seen as we put that out, what that looks like in '27 and beyond. In C&I, specifically and in our focus areas, the biggest impact of higher rates have really been to -- they show up in the form of increased sponsor equity that's needed to get these deals done.
And that's because in the C&I transactions, particularly in the energy space, these deals and these projects have to get finished because of the calendars that come from the tax credit expirations in '27 and '30. And so we view that as -- that's positive for us because, again, the acceleration to bring those projects forward is continuing.
And then lastly, I just mentioned on PACE, I won't repeat myself, but historically, we've seen some tailwind activity on that in a rising rate environment. So you put all that together, we think we've got a diversified pipeline, a high-quality pipeline and it can adapt to what the needs are of the bank as we move forward.
Stephen Moss
Okay. Great. Appreciate that color there. And maybe just in terms of -- on the subject of multifamily, the borrower in D.C. kind of curious if you can provide any update with regard to that credit.
Jason Darby
Yes. Steve, it's Jason. The relationship that we've disclosed before in the D.C. area continues to work through a resolution process. Actually, this quarter, we didn't really have any activity relative to the potential ability to dispose of any of those assets, not that we weren't working on it, but there was nothing that was recordable.
I think going forward, there's still an appetite to get something done to move some of those more degraded properties that we previously disclosed as nonaccrual at the end of last year in some form of a note sale where that will end up. I'm not exactly sure. We're not really ready to move off of our provision forecast. I still think a $5 million or $5.5 million number for Q4 from a provision expense perspective is appropriate. And hopefully, we'll be able to find some resolution there. But the overall discussion has been constructive. The borrower is engaged and the bank is continuing to look for all areas to preserve value, and we'll have more to update as things unfold.
Stephen Moss
Okay. Appreciate that. And then on the margin here, with higher rates, you guys historically run at a lower beta. That should obviously be pretty favorable for your margin trends over the next year or so if we stay up here.
Just kind of curious maybe a couple of things. Where are new PACE originations coming on? And just as you think about maturities and repricing here and new loans on the books, kind of how you're thinking about that margin trending beyond the short-term compression we'll see in the fourth quarter? Any thoughts just given the shift in the rates in the last 90 days?
Jason Darby
Yes. I think Sam pointed out quite nicely that PACE traditionally does pretty well in a higher rate environment, just more consumers are in place and the construction projects or the capital projects that offer this additional slice, that becomes very advantageous capital placement for builders that are looking for improvements to projects. And so we think there's a good opportunity to keep building assets in that class as the rate environment potentially continues to rise.
Where we brought things on in the quarter was around 7% across the broader PACE portfolio. And I would expect going forward -- it could be as high as 775 (sic) [ 7.75% ]. We could start approaching an 8 number as you look out into 2027. So the risk-adjusted returns in that asset class are phenomenal.
It's again why Sam and we have been forecasting or signaling for a while that we intend to move more aggressively into that asset class, not to diminish the impact of any of the other asset class that we have with the bank, but PACE is a particularly compelling opportunity for us. And then I think you're right on the point about the margin in that -- we'll have a little compression probably here in the fourth quarter just as the election concludes and deposits have remixed. But as the DDA balances continue to build throughout 2027, that naturally has a mitigating impact on any rising cost of funds related to deposit beta activity. And the asset yield story still is an area where Amalgamated has a tremendous harvesting opportunity. And so we don't have our guidance ready for 2027, but we feel very comfortable that there should be a good margin expansion opportunity throughout the year as we look into the opportunities that lie ahead for us.
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Justin Crowley with Piper Sandler.
Justin Crowley
Maybe just to start with one for either Sam or whomever. It looks like you saw a little bit of the runoff on the political side, deposit side, maybe just a little earlier than the last election cycle. And you are obviously also close to it.
So just curious if you could share any insights on what you've seen out of those deposit customers? And maybe just any early thoughts, and I know it's tough to predict, but just on how you think those flows could trend and then eventually rebuild over the next couple of quarters.
Sam Brown
Yes. Justin, it's Sam. So we were really pleased with the fact that we did end the quarter at $2 billion, which was flat from the prior quarter, which was the record for us. And then we do disclose in our deck, as you saw, that came down to about $1.7 billion that we disclosed as of 10/15, which really we want to indicate we are obviously in the spend down phase as we near election day here.
I think the best kind of color I can give for you is to really look at that trend that we've demonstrated over the track record of how long we've been doing this. In the chart, I think it is the right shape. I think that trend makes sense. But I would pivot also to just remind you that we are really pleased with the diversification we're seeing in all of our other deposit segments. Between the nonprofit and the labor, we were up about $4 million on the quarter, and that really comes through.
And so I think it's all part of a bigger puzzle. And we obviously, through all of the strategic management we put in place in order to kind of understand what's coming from political runoff and be able to work around that to still deliver strong and efficient NII, we feel good that we've got our arms around it.
Jason Darby
And then, Justin, maybe I can just add some targets for you. Still in a very good place from an off-balance sheet perspective at the end of the quarter as well, over $1 billion there. So as the deposits have started to run off, we still feel very good about being able to handle the election conclusion without needing a borrowing position.
And so we're really trying to manage our liquidity from that perspective. But in terms of how it would flow through from a margin, if that's maybe where you're going, the target, at least that we're looking at would be DDA was about 42% of total deposits at the end of the quarter. Probably going to be somewhere in the 36% range when we get to the end of the fourth quarter. And you can get a sense for the mix shift.
Obviously, as DDA starts to flow out, that will be replaced by interest-bearing off-balance sheet deposits, and that changes the funding mix and that changes the margin. So I talked a little bit about the margin compression that will happen here in the fourth quarter.
But to Sam's point, the historical trend is a very good measure to look at in terms of how that political balance will rebuild, and we expect DDA will be a growing component of the deposit mix throughout 2027, which is giving some of the basis at the cost of funds level from my comments earlier about opportunistic margin expansion in 2027.
Justin Crowley
Okay. That's all super helpful. I guess just pivoting a little just kind of going back to expenses. I know there's a little bloat from the double rent. How much of that if you're able to quantify and the timing also of when that eventually falls out of the run rate? And I know you can probably get more specific on January, but maybe just some broader thoughts on expense levels as we move out into next year.
Jason Darby
Yes, absolutely. So I think you're going to see a little bit more of the impact of the double rent plus the building move costs in general. There's restoration costs we have to incur for the previous building that we've exited from. And so that will continue into the fourth quarter.
Now we've planned for that, and I don't expect expenses to spike materially at all from where we are here in the third quarter. But as I've said before, I'm not also expecting as those expenses run off for that to be thought of as a reduction in the overall expense run rate. The expenses that run off will be replaced by deferred costs that have been put on the balance sheet related to technology investment infrastructure, other talent moves that we've been making to continue to augment the staff.
And so when we think about expenses out into the future, and I don't want to get too far ahead, I do think there's a natural continuation of Amalgamated investing in itself, but I think we'll always follow our core constraints, which are typically searching for positive operating leverage, making sure that revenues are, in fact, paying for the expenses that we're incurring so they become investments and also making sure that core efficiency is starting to become thought of as a very important and meaningful measurement for the bank in terms of what we're doing with the spend itself. And if that gives you an indication of how we're thinking about it for next year, hopefully, that will suffice. I'm happy to talk a little bit more answer any further follow-up questions or maybe Priscilla, if you have something you'd like to add on that.
Priscilla Sims Brown
No, I think you said it very well.
Justin Crowley
Agreed. That is helpful. And then maybe just one last one on buybacks. You got active again this quarter. I know the stocks moved pretty nicely, which I'm sure you're all happy about. But you continue to also have really strong capital levels, generate solid earnings. So just kind of curious how you're thinking about that as a capital return strategy as we look out here.
Jason Darby
Sure. It's a component for sure of my shareholder return strategy. And obviously, we want to make sure that we're not only focused on capital building from an earnings perspective. So we have an obligation. But at the same time, we're investors in the stock to the extent that we always feel it's got more value to go.
I don't have a specific program that I'm following or signaling with regard to what the buyback activity is. But I think you can recognize we increased the availability of the dividend -- I'm sorry, of the repurchase authorization to $40 million before the beginning of the third quarter. We started utilizing that when the price receded a little bit in connection with the broader market moves.
We feel that there's value in the stock. And I think you can generally look at what we did this quarter as an indicator, although I wouldn't say it's going to be an absolute because I'm not following any specific program. I'll continue to buy the stock as long as I think there's value to be had. And right now, we believe there's a lot of value left to run the stock.
Operator
And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Therefore, I'd like to turn the call back over to Priscilla Sims Brown for closing comments.
Priscilla Sims Brown
Thanks for those great questions, and thanks for your comments and notes on the quarter. Before we close, I just want to leave you with a couple of takeaways that I think you've heard loud and clear. Our strategy is working.
We think the strength of this quarter reflects the deliberate choices we've made to build a differentiated franchise, deploy our capital with discipline and invest in our people and our capabilities. And that's how we're delivering stronger performance for our shareholders while remaining true to our mission. What is particularly gratifying is that these results reflect the strategy we laid out 5 years ago and we refined 2 years ago, and we're doing what we said we would do. You can increasingly see that execution reflected in our results.
So I want to thank and congratulate our Board for its leadership and stewardship. I want to thank the entire team for their tremendous partnership and execution. This progress is a direct result of their commitment to the strategy and to our customers, communities and shareholders. We enter the next phase from a position of strength with significant opportunities still ahead of us. I look forward to providing more guidance on that next quarter. Thank you for joining us.
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. Enjoy the rest of your day.
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