OFG 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：商業部門の成長、信用動向、ガイダンス

主なポイント

• OFGは信用損失引当金として1,810万ドルを計上しました。これは主に貸出金の増加と自動車ローンの延滞に対する季節調整を反映したもので、第2四半期から510万ドル増加しました。
• 初期延滞率および総延滞率は季節的な傾向から前四半期比でそれぞれ2.65%と3.91%に上昇したものの、ともに前年同期の水準を下回りました。
• 純貸倒率および不良債権比率は、2026年第2四半期および2025年第3四半期の双方と比較してそれぞれ0.70%と0.74%に低下しました。
• 商業ローンの信用力は強化され、商業不良債権比率は前四半期の0.90%から0.68%に低下しました。経営陣はまた、強固な商業ローンのパイプラインも報告しました。
• OFGは通期の貸出金増加率が1桁台前半になるとの予想を改めて示しました。経営陣はパイプラインの状況からこの範囲を上回る実績を達成できる可能性があると述べましたが、2027年の公式ガイダンスの公表は見送りました。
• 第2四半期に計上された580万ドルの事業運用費用を除いた通期の非利息費用は、約3億8,500万ドルとなる見込みです。個別項目を除いた予想実効税率は22.5%で維持されています。

主要財務データ

事業および営業業績

商業銀行部門が主要な成長ドライバーとなりました。経営陣は、中堅企業および小規模事業者向け融資や預金取引の機会を挙げ、2026年はOFGのプエルトリコ商業事業にとって好調な年であると説明しました。新規商業ローンの利回りは既存ポートフォリオと同水準とされています。

自動車ローンの新規実行額は減少したものの、経営陣の予想を上回る結果となりました。2027年について、経営陣の予備的な見解では、新車販売と自動車ローンの新規実行額は2026年水準からの減少加速はなく、横ばいからやや減少にとどまるとみています。なお、同社は2027年の公式ガイダンスを公表していません。

自動車ローンの延滞率は、下半期における通常の季節的動向に沿って緩やかに上昇しました。しかし、自動車ローンの純貸倒額は前年同期比で改善し、回収額も引き続き堅調で、担保の売却価値は安定していました。経営陣は、季節的な延滞圧力が第4四半期まで続いた後、第1四半期に改善すると予想しています。

住宅ローンの業績は引き続き好調で、延滞指標が低下し、回収額が貸倒額を上回りました。消費者ローンおよび住宅ローンポートフォリオでも、初期延滞率および90日以上の延滞率が前年同期を下回りました。

OFGは、プエルトリコにおけるリテール顧客基盤が前年同期比で5%拡大したと発表しました。経営陣は、この進展の一部について、今後の収入と支出を予測し、請求書の二重支払いの可能性を警告するパーソナライズされたデジタルツールによるものとしています。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は、2026年通期の貸出金増加率に関する1桁台前半の予想を維持しました。商業パイプラインがより好調な実績を支える可能性がありますが、同社は公式な見通しの引き上げを見送りました。

貸出金額の増加や、季節的に上昇した自動車および消費者信用指標を反映し、引当金は1,800万ドルから2,000万ドルの範囲で推移する見込みです。

OFGは、第2四半期に計上された580万ドルの事業運用費用を除き、通期の非利息費用約3億8,500万ドルの計画に向けて順調に進んでいます。個別項目を除いた通期の予想実効税率は引き続き22.5%です。

経営陣は12月に25ベーシスポイント（bp）の追加利上げが行われる可能性について議論しました。実施時期を考慮すると、OFGは第4四半期の純利息収入への影響は限定的であると予想しています。現金およびプライムレートに連動する約5億ドルから5億5,000万ドルの商業ローンが最も金利感応度の高い資産として特定され、追加的な影響は翌四半期に見込まれます。

資本配分は内部成長によるバランスシートの拡大を最優先し、次いで配当と自社株買いを行います。経営陣は自社株買いを安定的に維持し、市場環境に応じてより積極的に実施する可能性があると述べました。

リスクと注視すべき点

預金競争と顧客の金利感応度は、利ざやに関する引き続き重要な考慮事項です。顧客がより高い利回りを求めたため、OFGでは貯蓄商品から定期預金への資金移動が予想以上に多く発生しました。

政府系預金は資金調達の変動性における別の要因です。経営陣は、年初にブローカー・ディーラーへ移管された約5億ドルを含む、12億ドルの政府預金取引について言及しました。一部の残高は3ヶ月物財務省短期証券に連動しており、第4四半期にさらなるリプライシング（金利改定）リスクを生じさせています。

経営陣は、商業顧客および個人顧客に影響を与えるインフレ、エネルギー費用の高騰、営業費用および借入コストの上昇を注視しています。より広範な地政学的動向もリスクとして特定されました。

経営陣はプエルトリコ経済の底堅さを評価する一方で、金利上昇、インフレ、エネルギーコストが高止まりすることで借り手に圧力がかかる可能性があることを認めました。ただし同社は、大幅な経済減速や消費者信用実績の悪化を示す証拠は見られないと述べました。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストは、プエルトリコの経済見通し、自動車ローン、預金競争、純利ざやへの圧迫、および株主還元に焦点を当てました。

経営陣は、経済データが失業率5%近辺、高水準の賃金、民間投資を示し続けており、経済悪化の明確な兆候はないと述べました。また、オンショアリング（国内回帰）活動や設備投資も後押し要因として挙げました。

預金と利ざやに関して、経営陣は足元の圧迫の主因を資金調達構成によるものと説明しました。第2四半期末に約4億ドルの政府預金が定期預金にリプライシングされ、第3四半期に1四半期分のフル影響を及ぼしました。第4四半期にも追加のリプライシングが影響を与える見込みです。

株主還元に関して、OFGはバランスシートの拡大が引き続き最優先事項であると述べました。余剰資本は配当および自社株買いを通じて還元され、自社株買いの授権枠は1億8,000万ドル残っています。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

[Audio Gap]

additional 25 basis points hike in December. Provisions should move into $18 million to $20 million range. This reflects increased loan volume and seasonally higher auto and consumer credit metrics. We remain on track to maintain noninterest expenses at about $385 million for the year, excluding the $5.8 million business operational charge in the second quarter.

Our estimated tax rate for the year continues to be 22.5%, not including discrete items. We will deploy capital prudently across organic growth, dividends and share repurchases, balancing attractive opportunities with long-term shareholders' returns.

Now here, titer.

Thank you, Cesar.

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Thank you, Maritza. Please turn to Page 11. All comparisons are to the second quarter unless otherwise noted. Credit reflected disciplined execution, proactive risk management and typical seasonal trends. Provision for credit losses was $18.1 million, up $5.1 million from the second quarter. This reflected $17.5 million for increased loan volumes and $1.3 million due to seasonal adjustments for the auto delinquency. This compares to the second quarter, which included $14.7 million for increased loan volume, partially offset by $1.9 million in commercial loan recovery.

Early and total delinquency rate of 2.65% and 3.91% increased from the second quarter due to seasonal trends, but declined year-over-year. At the same time, net charge-offs and nonperforming loan rates of 0.7% and 0.74% decline compared to second quarter 2026 and third quarter 2025. As a result, third quarter provision was slightly lower than originally anticipated due to better auto and consumer credit metrics.

On the retail side, consumer and residential mortgage portfolios continue to perform well, with both reporting lower early and 90-plus day delinquency levels compared to a year ago. The auto portfolio experienced modest increases in both early and nonperforming delinquency levels compared to the same period last year.

Net charge-offs for auto improved year-over-year and recovery performance remained strong. Collateral liquidation values have remained stable, resulting in consistent loss liberties despite the modest increase in delinquency. This provides additional confidence that the observed seasonal increase in delinquency does not necessarily translate into increased loss content. We continue to closely monitor this trend.

Mortgage performance remains particularly strong with continued improvements across delinquency measures and recoveries continue to exceed charge-offs. As we discussed in prior quarters, first half retail credit performance typically benefit from seasonal factors, including tax reforms and other liquidity events. Then we see a seasonal increase in the credit risk in the second half. Accordingly, part of the third quarter increase in our delinquency metrics reflects decolorization rather than an acceleration in the underlying credit profile of the portfolio.

Our retail portfolio continues to benefit from discipline on the writing and a significantly improved credit profile. As we have previously reported, this reflects tighter on the granting standards, improved portfolio mix and stronger vintage performance.

Turning to Commercial. Our asset quality represents one of the strongest stories within the quarter. Commercial nonperforming loan rates were 0.68% compared to 0.90% in the second quarter. Delinquencies and nonperforming levels are down, exposures have declined and overall asset quality has improved materially. Looking ahead, we remain watchful of inflationary pressures, higher operating costs, elevated energy expenses and the continued impact of higher borrowing costs on both commercial and consumer borrowers. The credit portfolio continues to demonstrate resilience. We believe we are well positioned to navigate the current environment and any potential macroeconomic headwinds that may emerge.

Now here's Jose to wrap up.

José Fernández

Thank you, Cesar. Let's turn to Page 12. The Puerto Rico economy remains resilient. It is supported by healthy consumer and business liquidity, higher wages and historically low unemployment, infrastructure projects and private investment continue to support economic activity, manufacturing expansion and new onshoring initiatives reinforce the long-term economic outlook.

And as Cesar mentioned, we remain attentive to evolving macroeconomic conditions, including higher energy costs, interest rates and inflation while continuing to monitor broader geopolitical developments.

OFG is well positioned for growth. Our detail and the core strategy is driving customer growth and engagement simplifying operations and expanding our market opportunity. We continue investing in people and technology to improve the customer experience and operating efficiency. Our capital strength methodical execution and differentiated franchise positions as well to navigate evolving market conditions.

With this, we end our formal presentation. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Brett Rabatin with StoneX Group.

質疑応答

Brett Rabatin

Wanted to start off, Jose Rafael, I've seen some of the data here in the past few months has been modestly positive for some continued Puerto Rico growth. But if you look at the newspaper articles in Puerto Rico, they seem to be somewhat more and talking about downside risks and the cost of diesel, et cetera. Can you maybe just start off with just what you're seeing on the ground. And what positives and negatives you would kind of point to as it relates to the economy?

José Fernández

Sure. Thank you for your question, Brett. We need to separate a little bit the noise from the facts here in the sense that we're not seeing any deterioration on the economy to speak of. We continue to see unemployment on the 5% handle. We see wages at a higher -- kind of historically highest levels. We're seeing the onshoring coming in, and we see actual private investment flowing through the economy. So the data does not support the noise that we might be reading or listening to locally. And again, it's all driven by -- most of it driven by political kind of discussions and once I kind of challenging the other. But from our perspective and as Cesar mentioned, on the credit side, we continue to see a pretty steady consumer, and we are not seeing any indications of a slowdown in the economy. What we're seeing is a steady economy that continues to chug along and benefiting from the inflows of investment from the U.S. and to us as business continue to invest in their business, and they feel optimistic about their potential growth. So that's as much as I can share with you given the data that we have.

Brett Rabatin

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to just -- it seems like all the Puerto Rico banks have been lamenting that auto has been softer. But when I look at the auto trends, I mean, the origination levels haven't fallen off that much, and it seems like auto is still there relative to what I've seen to hear. Any thoughts on auto from here? And then just the commercial pipeline, I heard the guidance around the low single-digit growth. But just any thoughts as you think about '27, any early reads that growth might be better or worse than what you're seeing this year?

José Fernández

Yes. So to your first point, we are happily surprised with the levels of auto lending originations during this year. We expected a softer market, and we are still there, seeing -- yes, lower originations, but better than what we expected. We really are not ready to give you formal 2027 guidance, but I can give you a little bit of color on how we see the auto business into 2027. I think you'll see the steady, maybe slightly lower new car sales and therefore, you will see also some trends across the market where you will see a lower auto originations. We're actually into those analysis right now. But we feel that given what we saw in 2026, we do not expect auto originations to decline additionally at a faster pace than 2026, we see it pretty stable. That's on the auto side.

On the commercial side, on the other hand, we are seeing very good growth opportunities. We are seeing good opportunities for us to establish new commercial relationships through the lending side as well as on the funding side. Maritza mentioned in her remarks, the pipeline that we continue to have. We're having a banner here on the commercial side in Puerto Rico. And a lot of our work has been put into this year's work. And the team has done a great job on the commercial middle market and small business. So we do feel that we're going to end the year with strong numbers, strong originations, and this quarter is another example of what we have been able to achieve.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Arren Cyganovich with Truist Securities.

Arren Cyganovich

On the deposit side, are you seeing competition increase, demand deposits were down -- savings deposits were down quarter-over-quarter. Anything in particular driving that? I'm sorry if I missed something in the prepared remarks.

José Fernández

Yes. I think Maritza covered it pretty well. I think -- big picture, the seasonality that we see in the first half of the year with funds coming in reflects also on the deposit side. And you'll see a little bit of a softer second half of the year on the funding side just simply because the liquidity is put to work on the commercial side as well as on the individual side, on the retail side. From a competition perspective, look, we're in a competitive market, and we compete and our competitors compete against us. So this is not a cakewalk, trying to gain market share on all the business units as well as growing the bank. So yes, for sure, there's deposit competition. We're also seeing a little bit more sensitivity with higher rates on some -- a higher balance individual clients. They are more sensitive and they're looking for alternatives. We have the wealth management business that benefits from that. So it's fine with us. But at the end, we're just trying to make sure that we service and cater to our customers on a relationship basis. And we feel pretty confident on how we're growing our deposit balances and the deposit relationship with our commercial and retail customers are.

Arren Cyganovich

Great. And as a follow-up on -- in the slide deck discussing the AI insights that are personalized for your customers. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how that works, maybe some examples of how that might be helping the customer experience?

José Fernández

Yes. So it's personalized. It's on the mobile, it's on online. You get your phone or your online. And the first thing you see is this is the expected expenses based on your several months before -- experience is your expected expenses that you're going to be funded. This is your expected income coming in. These are insights that are really unique for the Puerto Rico market. No -- ever as the bank provided those type of insights on such a simple and accessible way. So that's an example.

There's another insight that you get. And these are personalized. This is not based on collective data. This is on specific personalized ins and outs of the clients' checking accounts and savings accounts, et cetera.

We -- another example is we provide insight. You paid the same build twice in the same month, check it out because you might have paid it twice. Those are examples of what those insights provide and the feedback that we're getting -- as mentioned, it provides a pretty positive insights. This is all translating, Arren, into us growing retail customers, 5% year-over-year. And the same thing goes for the Commercial side. And it's something that we have been working on and building on throughout several years, and it's starting to show the results. We're also seeing the opportunity for us to deepen those relationships. So it's not only about bringing in new customers and clients to Oriental, it is also about our opportunity to deepen those relationships and be able to make them primary customers for us. So it's exciting times for us. We're really happy with the way our strategy is progressing and how we're unique in the market and being a different bank than the market is accustomed to see.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Kelly Motta with KBW.

Kelly Motta

I think I'd like to start off on the margin. You guys undoubtedly have one of the best margins here of the group, but it seems like your expectations near term are a bit more tempered than where you were in July. So I'm wondering kind of in terms of both loan pricing as well as the deposit competition, you've noted -- you're in a competitive environment where the incremental headwinds have been coming from relative to those July expectations.

José Fernández

Thank you for your question, Kelly. And I appreciate you recognizing the margin levels that we have and how we have managed them pretty consistently. Kudos to the team and Maritza overlooking and overseeing all that effort. So I'll let her give you the more details about it.

Maritza Arizmendi

Thank you, Kelly. I think when you look at the range that we should do, we were near the lower end of that range because we were money in several scenarios at this moment, particularly in the funding side, how we will behave in the second part of the year, given the liquidity that is moving and everything. So when you look at what happened during the quarter, we did have some repricing in the government side that we were expecting because we repriced about $400 million of the government deposit at the end of second quarter that were moved into time deposits. So we had the full impact in the third quarter. But secondly, the mix in the down savings and time deposits, we saw more than expected movement to that sort of to the time deposit side of the funding mix. And that's what happened with the initial estimate that we have.

So it's particularly driven by the funding mix. I think that the level of market rates right now, we were expecting no rate hike during the second part of the year. So now we have one. Secondly, we have the treasury notes at its highest level. So we're starting to see more clients looking for high yielding type of product. So we are there for our customers. So that's why time deposits were higher than expected during the second quarter -- third quarter.

Kelly Motta

That kind of ties into my next question, which is mostly a point of clarification as well as a look ahead. the government deposits, you had some go to wealth at the beginning of the year and then you had the -- what you had already disclosed is moving to being termed out to CDs in June, that's created some variability in those demand deposits. Just wanted to confirm that -- those balances are now one out of demand deposits. And then as we kind of look ahead, it seems like -- Clients are being driven by more rate-sensitive accounts. Do you think this is kind of a place where we can stabilize? Or would you anticipate some additional migration of excess funds to time here?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. Let me make sure you're asking about the government deposits or...

Kelly Motta

Yes.

Maritza Arizmendi

Okay. So that's a particular deposit that we have been managing for a long period of $1.2 billion, about $500 million moved to the broker deal at the beginning of the year. Then end of second quarter, we made two time deposits. One actually matures end of third quarter with reprices that will impact this fourth quarter coming. So the answer is that we will see some repricing there because of that condition. All these deposits are tied to 3-month treasury bills. So they will have some reflection of what the market is experiencing.

José Fernández

Yes. And it's a good point that Maritza makes because that's very much separate to the actual core client deposit funding that we have on the retail and commercial. The lines are completely different.

Maritza Arizmendi

Are necessarily tied to market, right?

José Fernández

Correct. Correct. So it's good that you asked that question, Kelly, because we might have some -- there might be some confusion among the market.

Kelly Motta

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe last question for me, and then I'll step back. I appreciate you guys reiterated the low single-digit growth outlook for the year. You're kind of already there in 3Q. Obviously, commercial growth was super strong. Wondering about the pine ahead and what could potentially push you slightly above that if you're successful in curing loans again in Q4?

José Fernández

Yes. So to answer your question, Kelly, is, yes, we're very confident that we're going to have low single-digit loan growth for the full year. And we work hard to do better. And the strong pipeline that we have gives us confident that we have a chance to do better. So that's share.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate the commentary. Just kind of following up on the NIM here. How should we think about the December hike post you kind of get past some of these. It seems more like unique public fund repricing moments that might be impacting the near-term NIM in the fourth quarter. How should we think about future hikes impact on into earlier next year?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. We will update at the end of the year with how we see 2027. But -- I can answer on the matter of the December hike, it would be something similar to this quarter that it happened at the end of September. And as I've shared with you in my prepared remarks, the more elastic asset is the cash and also the -- about $500 million, $550 million in the commercial portfolio, which is like to prime rate and the other happens only through the next quarter. So that's how we see that. So it won't be much of an impact on the fourth quarter NII.

José Fernández

The fourth quarter interest rate hike.

Maritza Arizmendi

Interest rate hike.

Manuel Navas

Sure. Sure. I guess also, separately, you had a lot of loan growth coming at the end of the quarter. Do you have a sense for new loan yields for that -- especially for that piece, maybe like September new loan yields?

José Fernández

Yes. Similar to the portfolio yields, it's a market that at those levels that were originated on the commercial Puerto Rico side. So that you should use that as a guidance.

Manuel Navas

Okay. And then I like that the buyback restarted this quarter. Just kind of thoughts on its pace. I know you're doing shareholder capital return, but just kind of a current update on capital deployment and the pace buyback?

José Fernández

Yes, yes. So we look at loan growth and balance sheet growth first. We certainly are very proactive on the capital management, and we'll continue to do so. We'll mix between dividend and the buyback. So you'll see us being pretty steady on the buyback and probably more active as their folks in the market. But overall, the capital management strategy remains the same. We want to deploy our capital for growth on the balance sheet and the excess capital that we have, we deploy it through dividends and buyback. We still have $180 million on the buyback. So that is ample space for us to go out and go into the market.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate that. My last question is a little bit on digging in deep on credit. I credit trends are really strong. The commercial trends are excellent. Just want to cover all my bases. Delinquencies tick higher in auto and a little bit higher, I think, year-over-year as well as linked quarter. Any extra color there? Is this still well within the normal seasonal increases and you kind of expect a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter and then an improvement in the first quarter of next year as well. Is that the right trajectory to think about?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Yes, that startled by are right. The seasonality works from first quarter improving and then picking up to the fourth quarter. So we still expect that trend to happen this year, too.

Manuel Navas

Anything significant auto this year versus last year?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

No. We continue seeing the resiliency on the customers as -- you see in the credit performance of the customers. So far, the portfolio is behaving very well. The economy is close too. So those two together give us comfort on the credit performance of our portfolio.

José Fernández

Yes. And as Cesar mentioned, we're very cognizant about what's going on with higher interest rates and inflation and energy and all that stuff. But all those things are happening when Puerto Rico's economy is sitting in a much different position than in years past, and it makes a different behavior for consumers simply, that's what's going on. So the performance that you're seeing on the consumer side -- on the credit consumer side, it's a reflection of the economy and all the things that we talked about earlier in the call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

José Fernández

Thank you, operator. Thanks again to all our team members for a great job in the quarter, and thanks to all our stakeholders who are listening. Looking forward to see you next time.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.