Flex LNG (FLNG) 2026年第2四半期決算説明会：堅調な売上高、ガイダンスを維持

主なポイント

• 2026年第2四半期の売上高は1億680万ドル（EUAを除く売上高は1億270万ドル）に達し、Flex LNGにとって2021年第4四半期以来で2番目に高い四半期実績となりました。
• 保有船隊の平均定期借船等価換算（TCE）レートは日額86,100ドルとなりました。純利益は4,490万ドル（1株当たり0.83ドル）、調整後純利益は4,250万ドル（1株当たり0.79ドル）となりました。
• Flex ConstellationおよびFlex Auroraの新契約による通四半期での貢献に加え、Flex VolunteerおよびFlex Artemisの堅調なスポット収益が売上高を支えました。
• Flex LNGは、売上高3億4,500万〜3億7,000万ドル、TCEレート日額7万3,000〜7万8,000ドル、調整後EBITDA 2億5,500万〜2億8,000万ドルとする2026年通期の業績予想（ガイダンス）を維持しました。
• 取締役会は1株当たり0.75ドルの四半期配当を発表しました。同水準での配当実施は20四半期連続となります。過去12ヶ月間の配当は累計で1株当たり3ドルとなりました。
• 契約カバー率は確定受注残高で最低51年分となっており、すべてのオプションが行使された場合は最大78年分に増加する可能性があります。2026年の残り利用可能運航日数の約89%がカバーされています。

主な財務データ

Flex LNGは当四半期中、定常的な債務返済として2,800万ドルを返済し、株主に4,100万ドルを還元しました。金利デリバティブ・ポートフォリオの想定元本は7億7,500万ドル、平均固定金利は2.46%で、四半期末時点の時価評価額は2,200万ドルでした。

事業および業績

Flex VolunteerおよびFlex Artemisは第2四半期中の堅調なスポット市場の恩恵を受けました。両船ともに第3四半期末にフリーとなる予定であり、同社はスポット運航および新たな定期契約に向けた営業活動を推進しています。

Flex Vigilantは6月にデンマークでのドック入り（定期検査）を完了し、保有する全13隻における5年毎の定期特別検査がすべて完了しました。2026年に実施された3隻のドック入り費用は1隻当たり平均約600万ドル、期間はそれぞれ平均17日間でした。2027年にはドック入りの予定はなく、10年目の初回ドック入りは2028年に予定されています。

年初来の世界のLNG貿易量は前年同期比で1%未満の減少となりました。経営陣によると、カタールの輸出量は約2,900万トン減少した一方、米国の輸出量は23%増（約1,400万トン増）となりました。米国産の供給シェア拡大は、大西洋からアジアへの航路長距離化を通じて海上輸送需要を支える可能性があります。

LNG船の手持ち工事高（新造船発注残）は、既存船隊の約38%に相当する約285隻と引き続き高水準です。経営陣は、大半がすでにカタールプロジェクトやその他の長期契約に割り当てられており、未契約のオープン船は比較的少ないと指摘しました。

業績予想・見通し

Flex LNGは以下の2026年通期業績予想（ガイダンス）を維持しました。

経営陣は、金利ヘッジ比率が2027年半ばまで約70%で推移すると見込んでいます。また、市場条件が魅力的なものになれば、2029年第1四半期の債務返済期限を迎える前に追加のヘッジやリファイナンスを検討するとしています。

リスクおよび注視点

経営陣は、スポット市場の軟調さと新造船の集中竣工スケジュールを理由に、市場見通しに対する「オレンジ（警戒）」評価を維持しました。スエズ運河の東西で船隊の稼働可能量が増加していることが、足元のスポット運賃の圧迫要因となっています。

地政学的不確実性は引き続き高水準にあります。経営陣によると、カタールとアラブ首長国連邦（UAE）からの合計LNG輸出量は通常水準を約63%下回っており、ホルムズ海峡の閉鎖状態は2026年を通じて継続するとみられています。カタールからの供給が正常化する時期は依然として不透明です。

欧州のガス在庫率は61%と、前年同期の73%を下回り、過去15年超で最低水準となりました。経営陣は、柔軟な取引が可能な米国産LNGカーゴを巡る欧州とアジアの争奪戦が、今後も海運市場の重要な動向要因になると予想しています。

質疑応答の要点

• ホルムズ海峡リスクへのエクスポージャー：経営陣は、Flex LNGの13隻の保有船のうち、2月末以降同地域内で運航された船舶はないことを確認しました。リスク対象地域への入航を指示した傭船者が、追加の危険地域保険料を負担することになります。
• スポット市場の見通し：経営陣は第3四半期を季節的な端境期（ショルダー期）と説明し、往復スポット運賃は前年同期の約12万ドルから日額約3万ドルまで下落したと述べました。同社は、歴史的に需要が強まる冬季市場が第4四半期における2隻の未契約船の稼働を支えることに期待を寄せています。
• 配当の継続性：取締役会は毎四半期、配当の見直しを行っています。経営陣は手元資金、貸借対照表、受注残高が今回の1株当たり0.75ドルの配当決定を裏付けていると言及する一方で、今後の配当は毎四半期の再評価に従うことを強調しました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

H. Foss

Welcome back to Flex LNG's Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. Hope you all have a great summer. My name is Marius Foss. I'm the CEO of Flex LNG. And today, I'm joined by our CFO, Knut Traaholt, who will walk you through the financials later in the presentation. Today, we will summarize the second quarter results and provide an update on the LNG shipping market. As always, we will conclude this webcast with a Q&A session.

Knut Traaholt

If you would like to ask questions, please use the chat functions on the webcast or send questions to -- by e-mail to ir@flexlng.com. Before we start, we would like to highlight the following. We are using certain non-GAAP measures such as TCE, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income. These are supplements to the earnings reported in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are available in the earnings report released today. There are also limitations to the completeness of our presentation. Therefore, we encourage you to read the quarterly report together with today's presentation.

And with that, back to you, Marius.

H. Foss

Thank you, Knut. Let's begin with the highlights of the quarter. We are happy to present very strong results for the second quarter. We sailed in revenues of close to $107 million or close to $103 million, excluding the EUAs. This is our second best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021. The fleet average TCE during the quarter ended up at $86,100 per day. Net income for the second quarter came in at $44.9 million, implying an earnings per share of $0.83.

When adjusting for unrealized gains and interest rates swaps and FX, we ended up with adjusted net income of $42.5 million or adjusted earnings per share at $0.79.

Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer have traded in a strong spot market in the second quarter and contributed to our solid quarterly results. We continue to see elevated geopolitical uncertainty in the LNG space as the conflict in Iran causes disruption to the LNG flow from the region.

Lastly, with the dry docking of Flex Vigilant in June, we have completed all scheduled 5-year special surveys for our fleet. We maintain our full year guidance from last quarter and expect revenues to come in between $345 million and $370 million. Similarly, we expect the TCE to come in somewhere between $73,000 and $78,000 per day. We expect adjusted EBITDA to come in between $255 million and $280 million.

With our strong quarter, contract coverage and solid balance sheet, the Board has declared another dividend of $0.75 per share. This is the 20th consecutive dividend of $0.75 per share, and we have now distributed around $850 million since 2021, including special dividends. Our last 12 months dividend is $3 per share, implying a dividend yield of around 9.7%.

Flex Vigilant completed her dry dock in Denmark in June, and this was the third and final dry docking for 2026. The average cost per dry docking came in around $6 million per vessel as guided, and we spent averagely 17 days in dry dock per vessel. Flex Vigilant marks the final 5-year special survey in our fleet of 13 vessels. Looking ahead, we have no dry dockings coming up in 2027, and we will commence our first 10-year docking in 2028.

Let's have a look at our contract backlog. Looking at our total contract coverage, we have 51 years of minimum firm backlog, which may grow to 78 years if all options are declared. In the near term, we have close to 89% coverage for the remaining available days in 2026. Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer have both been trading in the spot market in the second quarter and will come open at the end of the third quarter. We are now marketing the vessels both for spot and new term contracts.

With our good contract coverage for the remainder of the year, we maintain our guiding which we upgraded last quarter. This means that we expect full year revenues to come in between $345 million to $370 million. Similarly, we expect TCE to come in somewhere between $73,000 and $78,000 per day. Lastly, we expect the adjusted EBITDA to come in between $255 million and $280 million. We are pleased to announce that the Board has declared a dividend of $0.75 per share.

Let us briefly revisit decision factors for the dividends. We maintain the orange level for market outlook. This reflects a softer spot market and heavy schedule of newbuilding deliveries. Looking ahead, we note that low European storage levels going into the cold winter season. Confidence in the long-term structural demand story remains intact, supported by the third wave of U.S. LNG export capacity currently under construction. We keep other considerations in orange given the continued elevated geopolitical risk. There is still uncertainty around the duration of the Iran conflict and the timing of normalization of the Qatar supply.

Taking all factors into account, the Board has declared another quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share. This brings dividends paid over the last 12 months to $3 per share. The dividend will be paid on or about 17th of September to shareholders of record as of 3rd of September.

And with that, I hand it over to you, Knut, for final financial updates.

Knut Traaholt

Thank you, Marius. And the second quarter was significantly improved quarter-over-quarter, mainly driven by higher revenues. And revenues were $106.8 million or $102.7 million, excluding EUAs. The higher revenues were driven by high spot earnings for Flex Volunteer and Flex Artemis, while both Flex Constellation and Flex Aurora contributed by having a full quarter of earnings under the new contracts that commenced in March.

On the cost side, vessel OpEx was higher quarter-over-quarter as the second quarter was impacted by higher crew travel costs related to the disruptions in the Middle East. The average OpEx per day in the second quarter was $16,260, while the average OpEx for the first 6 months of the year was around $16,100 per day. We maintain our OpEx guidance of $16,000 per day for the full year.

Interest expense continued to improve, reflecting lower loan margins and active management of our RCF facilities. We booked $4.7 million in gains on our interest rate derivatives, of which $2.3 million was realized gains and $2.4 million was unrealized gains. Net income came in at $44.9 million or $0.83 per share, and adjusting for noncash items like unrealized gains from the interest derivative portfolio, the adjusted net income was $42.5 million or equivalent to adjusted earnings per share of $0.79. This is more than double than of the first quarter. So overall, this was a very strong quarter, impacted by improved revenues from the spot market, new contracts, completion of dry docking and continued cost control and improved financial efficiency.

On the cash flow, during the quarter, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $63 million, up from $37 million in the first quarter. The increase was mainly driven by higher revenues, as explained on the previous slide. This excludes $19 million in positive change in working capital and $5 million of CapEx related to the dry dockings this year. And the reduction in receivables during the quarter was related to timing of advanced charter hire receipts.

We repaid $28 million in scheduled debt installments and distributed $41 million to our shareholders. And then in sum, our net cash flow was $8 million in the quarter, and that resulted in a cash position of $397 million at the end of the quarter. So looking at our balance sheet, we maintain a clean balance sheet with mainly ships and close to $400 million in cash. And our debt financing is comprised of a combination of bank loans, which gives us flexibility and attractive long-term leases.

Our first debt maturity is in the first quarter of 2029. And if we look at the book equity ratio, it's robust at 27.4%. And as noted before, our book values reflect the historical cost adjusted with regular depreciation. Our interest rate swap portfolio is unchanged and was valued at $22 million at the end of the second quarter. The notional value of the portfolio is $775 million, with an average fixed rate of 2.46%. We expect to maintain a hedge ratio of around 70% into mid-next year.

And with that, I hand it back to you, Marius, for the market outlook.

H. Foss

Thank you, Knut. Let's have a look at the LNG trade. Global LNG trade volumes are broadly flat year-to-date, down less than 1% compared with the same period last year. On the supply side, the key development has been significant reduction in the Qatari exports, down around 29 million tonnes. This shortfall has to a large extent been offset by strong growth from the U.S., where exports are up 23% or close to 14 million tonnes. We have also seen continued growth from Australia and Russia.

Other exporters have contributed strongly and are up 6 million tonnes from last year. These include LNG Canada, but also West Africa exporters, including Nigeria and Senegal. Industry sources report that global export capacity ran at 96% utilization in July, excluding Qatar. This is above 90% utilization seen last year and a 5-year average of 86%. On the demand side, imports into JKT remained resilient, while Europe and China are down compared to last year. At the same time, India and other importing markets have continued to grow. The key takeaway is that despite a significant disruption from one of the world's largest LNG exporters, Qatar, global trade volumes have remained resilient. And more importantly, for shipping, the growing share of U.S. supply means more LNG coming into the Atlantic Basin. This will likely have a positive ton-mile effect when those volumes move into Asia.

Let's have a look a bit closer to the supply side. The reduction in Middle East LNG volumes has been significant. Combined exports from Qatar and UAE are currently down around 63% compared to normal levels. As you can see from the left-hand side, exports dropped very sharply earlier in the year. And while volumes have started to recover, they remain below historical levels. At the same time, the U.S. has continued to ramp up LNG exports. U.S. liquefaction capacity is up around 14 million tonnes year-on-year, supported by the ramp-up of new capacity, particularly in the Plaquemines. It is also worth to mention that the long anticipated Golden Pass is slowly but steadily increasing its production. We expect to see increased loading from Golden Pass going forward and from Port Arthur as it comes on stream next year. So despite substantial loss from Middle East supply, this has mitigated by strong U.S. growth, and that shift is positive for the shipping demand.

Let us have a look at the demand side on the competition between Europe and Asia for the LNG. Europe entered the year with relatively low gas inventories. Inventories are today 61% full, the lowest level in over 15 years and below the 73% seen last year. This means Europe still has a substantial requirement to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter season. At the same time, U.S. LNG is highly flexible and can move between Europe and Asia depending on the relative pricing.

Looking at the chart on the left-hand side, there have historically been significant swings in the U.S. LNG flows between the 2 regions. So far this year, both Europe and Asia have attracted additional U.S. LNG volumes, although the balance has shifted through the year. Looking forward, this sets up a continued tug-of-war of U.S. LNG exports. If European storage remain low, Europe will need to keep bidding on Atlantic cargoes, while lack of Qatari volumes could pull more of those volumes into Asia.

If you are looking at the newbuildings, we stand out on this slide, ordering activity remains very strong, even with newbuilding prices holding around $250 million and the term rates remain more moderate levels. We have already seen around 60 newbuildings ordered so far this year. A number of these are made without any employment contracts. This year, orders are well above last year's figures of 35 vessels. That tells us there's still significant confidence in the long-term LNG shipping markets. At the same time, elevated newbuilding prices continue to provide support for the value of modern existing tonnage, including our fleet.

The order book remains substantial with around 285 vessels to be delivered going forward, equivalent to roughly 38% of the existing fleet. However, the majority of these vessels are already tied up with Qatar or other long-term employment, and the number of open vessels remains fairly limited.

Contracting activity remains at very high levels. LNG SPAs volumes signed in the first half of 2026 are already above 30 million tonnes per year. This continued appetite for long-term LNG supply is important because it provides the commercial basis required for new projects to reach FID. We have already seen around 28 million tonnes of projects that reached FID so far this year, including Venture Global's expansion of the CP2, Commonwealth and Delfin. And there are additional projects that could reach FID later this year, up to 39 million tonnes. These potential projects include LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lismis in Canada and Delfin Phase 2 and the Brownsville in the U.S. This would take the potential FIDs in 2026 up to around 67 million tonnes. The key takeaway is that the next wave of LNG supply continues to gain momentum, supported by strong customer contracting and a healthy pipeline of projects moving forward to FID.

Let's have a look at the spot market for the modern 2 strokes. We have seen increasing vessel availability in both West and East of Suez, and that continues to put a weight on the spot rates. It is worth mentioning that the number of vessels available today is in line with the 5-year historical averages. This comes at a time when the LNG fleet is growing. This shows that the newbuildings are being absorbed by going straight into the program after being delivered from the shipyards. We did see a sharp spike in the rates earlier this year. But since then, rates have normalized, and we have seen some pressure on the spot rates over the last few weeks.

As we move into the second half of the year, we would normally expect some historical seasonal tightening. We have 2 vessels coming open at the end of the third quarter, well positioned for a potential strong winter market. With that, let's turn to a Q&A session.

Knut Traaholt

Thank you, Marius, and thank you to everyone who has submitted questions on our webcast and also to our Investor Relations e-mail. It's been an active or a lot of things happening during the quarter, particularly in the Middle East and with the Strait of Hormuz. So we have a number of questions coming in around that and also how that has impacted our operations. So in specific, the question is, do we have any trade in that area or to the Strait of Hormuz? And have we had any ships being stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz?

H. Foss

Yes. Thank you. Now I'm pleased to confirm that all vessels in the Flex fleet of 13 vessels, none of them have been trading inside since the end of February. So our charterers' clients are trading elsewhere for time being.

Knut Traaholt

And there's also then a follow-up question around this as there are a number of additional insurances that are needed to be trading to the Strait of Hormuz. And the question is specifically who pays for this insurance and what insurance is needed to be trading here?

H. Foss

Yes, it's required to have insurance when you sail into high-risk areas. So if and when our ships are ordered to other high-risk areas, this extra coverage will be paid for by the charterers who are instructing the vessel to such areas.

Knut Traaholt

And sticking to the Strait of Hormuz, it's more on the market view and the outlook there for, first of all, the resumption of LNG export out of Qatar and UAE, but also more on the normalization of the transit through the Strait of Hormuz. What's your view on that?

H. Foss

Well, we believe that Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout 2026. So we could potentially look at the interesting market going forward for LNG and other shipping segments.

Knut Traaholt

Moving on, you mentioned in the presentation that we have seen a slightly softer spot market now. So there's questions on what your expectations are for the LNG shipping market for the third quarter and then the fourth quarter?

H. Foss

Yes. The Q3 is normally a shoulder month before we head into the winter season. So Q3 has softened up from the spot market has been maybe on $120,000 for round trip during the last Q3 and has now come down to $30,000. Our next ship coming open in the end of Q3. So we are preparing for the Q4 market, which historically has been profitable. So we are hopeful and hoping that we can contribute a little bit more there on our Q3 and Q4 results later. But yes, if Hormuz remains closed, I think this will automatically find its way back to where the LNG market should be.

Knut Traaholt

Good. Then we have some questions on the financing. First of all, on our interest rate derivative portfolio. As we say, we have 70% coverage until mid-next year. And the question relates to when we expect to add more interest rate hedging to our books? In general, we are trading when the markets are favorable. We are very pleased with the coverage we have today. But obviously, when there are opportunities either for adding more on the short-term or longer-term interest rate hedging, that is our aim to do.

And there is also a follow-up questions on our debt maturities in Q1 2029, when we will address that? It's a bit early to address that refinancing now unless that we see an attractive opportunity to add more or better terms to our financings. That is something we are continuously evaluating. And if there are attractive opportunities, we will act on them.

And final question, it's a recurring questions. It's about dividend sustainability and the outlook for future dividends. As we have repeatedly said, each dividend is declared by the Board each quarter. We are fairly transparent on the decision factors, which we have also presented today. That is a repeat of the decision factors that we had last year -- sorry, last quarter, which was basically a downgrade of certain factors. However, with the strong balance sheet and cash position and also the contract backlog, the Board was pleased to confirm a dividend for this quarter of $0.75. Future dividends will be decided by the Board, and reassess all these factors, including then our backlog for the open vessels.

And with that, that concludes the Q&A session.

H. Foss

Thank you. Thank you for participating in our Q2 presentation. We would like to welcome you back in November for our Q3 presentation. Thank you.