Wall Street dent en Trump: este es el motivo
Los asesores de Wall Street predicen que la economía de Trump liderará un aumento en las actividades comerciales en 2025. Esperan relajar los controles regulatorios para impulsar las fusiones y adquisiciones (M&A) junto con los debuts en el mercado de valores.
El cambio se atribuye a las promesas del dent Donald Trump a lo largo de su campaña dent , que presagiaban un entorno regulatorio menos estricto que podría impulsar la actividad empresarial y la confianza de los inversores durante el próximo año.
Christina Minnis, jefa de adquisiciones y finanzas crediticias globales de Goldman Sachs, dijo a los asistentes a la conferencia Mujeres, Dinero y Poder de Bloomberg en Londres que existe una creciente sensación de optimismo en torno a la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones en Estados Unidos.
" Creo que probablemente existe la sensación de que la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones en Estados Unidos podría ser un poco más sólida ", dijo Minnis, refiriéndose a las propuestas políticas de Trump que prometen un entorno más amigable para las transacciones corporativas.
Minnis cree que el sentimiento del mercado ha sido especialmente evidente desde las elecciones, con un aumento en las consultas de patrocinadores y clientes corporativos que antes habían dudado debido a incertidumbres regulatorias.
Por mil millones de dólares, Donald Trump ahora promete eximir a las empresas de las regulaciones gubernamentales, incluidos los requisitos ambientales y de seguridad. pic.twitter.com/djEBKaBy0j
- Max Burns (@themaxburns) 10 de diciembre de 2024
Despite this optimism in the US, the Goldman Sachs credit finance head cautioned that European markets may experience a more cautious approach due to concerns over tariffs that the US might potentially impose. However, she remains confident that the summer months will see a general uptick in global deal activity as markets adjust to the new political landscape.
Analysts optimistic about Trump’s policies and proposed regulatory changes
Alison Harding-Jones, Deutsche Bank’s global head of M&A, echoed Minnis’s sentiment, highlighting the change in regulatory climate expected under Trump’s administration. She noted that under Biden’s administration, the regulatory process often dragged on for years, with some deals stalling entirely as watchdogs examined every detail.
“The mindset is the US has definitely been much more difficult under Biden, and that will change and get better,” Harding-Jones said.
Simona Maellare, global co-head of the alternative capital group at UBS, also sees a shift in the market dynamics. She stated that private equity firms, which have been sitting on trillions of dollars in unspent capital, are likely to take advantage of the new regulatory environment.
“What has prevented deals in the past was this bid-ask on valuations,” Maellare explained. “…But the economics don’t work like that. If they’re not encouraged, if they don’t make the returns, they really can’t do it.”
The relaxation of regulatory constraints could offer these firms an ideal scenario for deploying their capital in a more favorable environment.
In Europe, the change in US leadership could spur consolidation within the region’s banking industry, which has struggled to keep pace with the US sector since the financial crisis. Moreover, Harding-Jones pointed out that while there has been some uptick in acquisitions by European lenders, most deals have been limited to domestic transactions.
A more relaxed regulatory environment in the US could prompt European regulators to move forward with the much-discussed banking union, long considered a key goal for the region’s lawmakers.
The crypto industry poised to thrive under Trump’s administration
Alongside traditional industries, the crypto sector is also set to benefit from the expected shift in regulatory dynamics. With President-elect Trump’s promises of a more favorable regulatory regime for digital assets, crypto-native firms are likely to see accelerated growth.
🚨BREAKING: Eric Trump confirms President Trump’s plan to make American cryptocurrencies such as $XRP $XLM $BTC and $ETH tax free
I was the first public source of this story and reported on it. This will put non American crypto at a -37% tax disadvantage.
DM to setup your qfs pic.twitter.com/AXus9gV3Fq
— Official Bo Polny (@BoPolnysays) December 11, 2024
Industry experts believe that the loosening of regulatory restrictions will benefit companies like Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US crypto exchange, whose stock surged following the election results.
Per a recent Bloomberg report, private crypto firms are also benefiting from the expected change, with Ripple Labs seeing a 72% increase in shares traded on secondary markets.
Crypto firms face competition from TradFi players
For years, many established financial institutions have avoided the crypto space due to regulatory uncertainty. However, as the regulatory environment becomes more transparent under Trump, major players like State Street, JPMorgan Chase, BNY Mellon, and Bank of America are expected to delve deeper into the digital currency sector, offering services such as digital asset custody and trading.
“As we look into 2025 and 2026, we are going to see a tremendous amount of interest from the TradFi players to get more involved in the crypto space,” Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, told Bloomberg.
Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas acknowledged the challenges posed by this competition but highlighted the company’s advantage in terms of experience and knowledge. “I do think we are going to see more competition,” Haas said during a Goldman Sachs conference.
However, she pointed out that most banks and other potential competitors lack the deep understanding of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency security that Coinbase has developed, positioning the firm as a potential partner for traditional institutions looking to enter the space.
While the arrival of traditional financial institutions could increase competition, Smith does not see it as a threat to the crypto industry. Rather, she believes that the market will grow significantly as more players enter the space.
“I don’t think people in the industry are perceiving it as a threat because overall, the market will get much, much bigger,” she added.
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