Samsung Electronics Stock Forecast: ₩86T Profit Expected, HBM Lead - Buy the Dip?

Samsung's 2Q26 financials are likely to feature good results from its two key segments, DRAM and mobile devices. Memory prices have continued to recover, supported by AI-driven demand for DRAM and improving NAND pricing. Furthermore, HBM has been the biggest area of growth with Samsung having started the commercial shipment of its HBM4 chip earlier in the quarter, so 2Q26 will be the first quarter that could have HBM4 as a part of its HBM revenue. Samsung's mobile phone segment, on the other hand, is also expected to be profitable due to better pricing enabled by the Galaxy S26 launch as well as Galaxy AI features despite growing competition from Chinese Android brands.

The decline in profit forecasts from a high of ₩96 trillion to a low of ₩86 trillion is mostly attributed to one-off employee compensation costs negotiated with labor unions in May rather than demand decline. Given this, investors will most likely look past the operating profit number to examine HBM revenue growth, NAND and DRAM pricing outlooks, and the Q326 guidance that will better showcase how Samsung will be benefiting from the AI boom in Q3.

Over the last 12 months, Samsung stock has rallied by a staggering 456%, powered by the memory sector’s recovery sparked by AI. Samsung’s high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips and foundry business have also been a big boost for its bottom line. But after touching record highs of ₩374,500, shares have dropped about 15% in value and are now trading at ₩318,000, as AI-themed stocks across the globe continue to stall.

However, several tailwinds continue to support the stock’s long-term prospects. The demand for AI data centers has led to better DRAM prices, and HBM remains the largest growth segment in the DRAM space. Other recent semiconductor results and South Korea’s recent announcement of a trillion-won AI initiative further point to a robust industry recovery.

Trading around 21.7 times its trailing earnings, Samsung is not as stretched out as other AI-related chip manufacturers. An average analyst target of ₩468,076 suggests there’s nearly 24% further upside if HBM shipments and the AI-driven demand boom continue.

Samsung will report Q2 earnings after the close on July 23, and market participants will be watching any updates from the company regarding HBM4 shipments, memory pricing and Q3 guidance to determine whether the stock can retest ₩374,500 and break out higher or whether it will remain in a consolidation phase.

On the two-hour timeframe, Samsung is bouncing off a double bottom between ₩283,000 and ₩297,334 and holding the uptrend line. Relative strength index of 50.75 points to a neutral reading that could still push higher.

Samsung Electronics Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

A confirmed price close above ₩326,000, which will mark the breakout from the double bottom formation, will lead Samsung to a target of ₩348,500. A close below ₩283,000 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

• Entry: Long at ₩326,000+
• Target: ₩348,500
• Stop loss: Close below ₩283,000

Catalysts

• Earnings: July 23 after the close
• Earnings consensus: ₩178.7 trillion of revenue, ₩86 trillion of operating profit
• Average analyst target: ₩468,076 (Strong Buy)
• 52-week range: ₩60,200-₩374,500

As Q2 2025 marked the trough of the memory cycle, Q2 2026 operating profit at Samsung is expected to jump sharply from a year ago. DRAM prices have recovered on the back of robust AI server demand, NAND pricing has recovered with the tightening of supply, and Samsung started the commercial shipment of its new HBM4.

The consensus forecast of 86 trillion won is down from an earlier estimate of 96 trillion won, but the reason for the cut is mainly one-time employee compensation costs agreed during May labor negotiations rather than a weak underlying business.

The most important thing is HBM4 revenue. Q2 is expected to be the first quarter to reflect commercial HBM4 shipments, so investors will be able to see a sense of Samsung's position in the high growth market for AI memory.

In addition, the guidance for the third quarter will be important for Q3, and we will be looking for new trends in HBM4 production, customer demand, DRAM pricing, and the new platform for artificial intelligence. The operating profit in Q2 is not likely to be as important to the stock as the above.

Samsung rose by 456%last year, and even after this, the mean price target of 468,076 won for the stock by major brokerages remains as it implies an upside of 24 percent. The 283,000 won to 297,334 won double-bottom support is also in play, and the stock is now holding it. A close above the 326,000 won level is expected to strengthen the bull view toward the 348,500 won price and to close the 283,000 won level below the 283,000 won level as invalid.

On the 23rd of July, Samsung will announce its earnings and expect its operating profit to rise sharply due to stronger pricing for memory and the first contribution to HBM4 shipments. One-time employee compensation costs are weighing heavily on the headline profit, but we think investors will focus on the revenue growth rate for HBM4, and the outlook for the company's performance in the first and second half of the year. 

Samsung continues to hold the double-bottom support for 283,000 won to 297,334 won, and the breakout over 326,000 won is expected to rise toward the 348,500 won price, while the close below 283,000 won level will lose the bullish momentum.