Apple Smashed Q2 2026 Estimates with a Record Quarter — Is AAPL a Buy at $277?

What really sets this quarter apart though, is the sheer breadth of Apple's beat. Revenue of $111.2 billion was not only higher than the top end of Apple's own previous guidance range of $107.8 to $110.7 billion, its well above. iPhone revenue came in at a whopping $57 billion, a March quarter record that's a direct result of sustained demand for the iPhone 17, and Apple has also seen a pretty significant recovery in China. On top of that the services sector brought in a whopping $30.98 billion, that's an all-time high and 16% growth in the 70s percent bracket for gross margins. Apple sold $8.4 billion worth of Macs, $6.91 billion of iPads, and $7.9 billion worth of wearables, and every regional sector saw double-digit growth.

The real unsung hero though, was the gross margin print of 49.3%. Apple had been projecting a 48 to 49% for the quarter, but narrowly managed to reach the high end of that range. And lets not forget the $3.3 billion in cumulative tariff costs over the last three quarters and the whopping 237% increase in DRAM and 70% in NAND prices since Q2 2025 - so some serious cost headwinds to overcome - but it's clear that the Services mix and that iPhone premium ASPs have more than offset the extra cost. And that's not all - Apple also managed to rake in a net profit of $29.6 billion, and announced a $100 billion additional share buyback authorisation and a 4% dividend increase on top of it all.

CFO Kevan Parekh took the reins of Q3 revenue growth on Wednesday, calling it at 14-17% - which is roughly $107-110 billion. Now that's a range that leaves the street looking over their shoulders, because it's a heck of a lot higher than the 9-10% growth that analysts had penciled in. Gross margin for Q3 is looking at 47.5-48.5% which is right in line with what we'd expect for this time of year - and a hair lower than the 49.3% we saw in Q2. That's the expected seasonal shift playing out. But what's really striking here is that this guidance range is telling us that there's real momentum around the iPhone right now - and the China recovery isn't just a flash in the pan. The guys at Apple also highlighted a pretty impressive installed base, and the iPhone 17e, M4 iPad Air, and MacBook Neo, all of which are going to be contributing to the pipe for Q3.

The CEO transition, on the other hand, was easier to digest than most of us were expecting. Tim Cook is stepping down on September 1st and taking on the role of executive chairman, while John Ternus - the guy who's been Apple's go-to hardware engineering leader for ages - takes the reins as CEO. They're framing it as a continuance of the business as usual rather than a major turning point. No big changes on the capital allocation, product roadmap or supply chain front, so the company is saying business as usual. One thing that still is on the table is the Siri upgrade which is still on track for WWDC in June and that will be the next big catalyst for the AI narrative. Following the results we've had a bunch of upgrades from the banks, Morgan Stanley to $330, Wells Fargo to $310, Wedbush still at $350, the street consensus has moved to $300-$310.

Since breaking above $275 after the earnings release, Apple's share price has pulled back towards $277. Given this move is really just a bit of a pullback and not a full-blown bearish reversal, the price is still well inside the ascending 4 hour channel it broke out into earlier. And what that means is the higher highs and higher lows are still very much in place. That makes the $275 - $276 zone now a really key support area to keep an eye on, especially with the mid-channel trendline providing a bit of a safety net. The 50 EMA is still quietly creeping up underneath the price and the 200 EMA just under $263 reinforces the whole bullish picture.

Over on the RSI , things have cooled a bit to around 57 after it had got itself well into overbought territory. So that looks like some pretty healthy momentum starting to reset. Now as long as AAPL stays above that key $275 level, the buyers might just get a chance to retest the next level at $284.60, followed by the upper channel boundary at $290.50. BUT... if we were to see a daily close below $271, then that could start to put the whole bullish picture in jeopardy and it would also start to expose $267.

Trade Setup: Buy above $276 and target $284.60 and then $290.50 but be prepared to stop loss below $271.

When Apple put out those impressive Q2 2026 earnings, it was just another notch on the belt for the bullish case, beating expectations on revenue, EPS, iPhone sales, Services revenue and gross margin. The Q3 guidance also came in above forecasts. Now we are all just waiting for WWDC in June, where Apple will really be fleshing out the future for Siri and what their AI roadmap looks like. That'll likely shape the next move.