Week Ahead: U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls to Be Released; Google, Amazon, AMD Earnings to Be the Focus

TradingKey - Last week, Microsoft (MSFT) released earnings that disappointed the market, causing its stock price to slump and weighing on the overall performance of US stocks. The Dow fell 0.42% for the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.17%. This week, the market awaits US non-farm payroll data for January; a weak reading could once again trigger investor speculation regarding interest rate cuts. Regarding stocks, this week Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) , Amazon (AMZN) , AMD (AMD) , Palantir (PLTR) , Qualcomm (QCOM) and other star tech stocks will release their results. Investors will focus particularly on the earnings and capital expenditure plans of the AI-focused Google and Amazon.

Major Events Preview

US to Release Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, Potentially Offering More Monetary Policy Signals

This week, the US will release the January non-farm payroll report. Markets expect a job gain of approximately 60,000 to 80,000, but Bloomberg Economics warns that due to factors like statistical adjustments, actual growth could be unexpectedly weak, projected at only around 15,000, with an unemployment rate of approximately 4.4%. If the data is weak, it could once again spark market speculation about rate cuts. Additionally, US ADP employment figures for January will be released on February 4.

ING economist James Knightley stated in a report that the market remains cautious about the labor market's trajectory, unaffected by the Fed's relatively optimistic tone, and is currently pricing in expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.

Tech Giant Earnings Take Center Stage; Alphabet and Amazon Results in Focus

Tech giant earnings continue to be the highlight of the week, with star tech stocks like Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Palantir, and Qualcomm set to report; after the close on Thursday, gold miner Barrick Gold will release its results. As the world's third-largest gold mining company by market cap, its performance is noteworthy, especially given the year-long surge in precious metal prices.

Sid Vaidya, Chief Investment Strategist at TD Wealth, noted that while market reactions to some giants' earnings have been mixed, one thing is confirmed: capital expenditure for building AI infrastructure will not slow down.

CME Significantly Hikes Gold and Silver Margins; Caution Urged Over Precious Metal Liquidity Risks

CME Group has once again significantly raised margins for precious metal futures: the margin rate for gold rises from 6% to 8%, and for silver from 11% to 15%. The new rules take effect after Monday's close.

This adjustment follows the previous 'floating margin' mechanism reform, highlighting the exchange's intent to accelerate deleveraging and manage risk in an environment of extreme volatility. The market fears a repeat of the 1980 or 2011 historical scenarios where 'the exchange acts and the market crashes.'

Key Economic Data

Monday: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: US January ADP Employment Change

Thursday: UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (to Feb 5)

Thursday: Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate (to Feb 5)

Friday: US January Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls

Key Events This Week

Tuesday: RBA Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement

Thursday: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey holds a Monetary Policy Press Conference

Thursday: ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a Monetary Policy Press Conference

Friday: RBA Governor Michele Bullock Testifies Before Parliament

Major Earnings This Week

Monday: The Walt Disney Company (DIS) , Palantir

Tuesday: AMD

Wednesday: Alphabet, Eli Lilly (LLY)

Thursday: Amazon, Shell (SHEL)