Oklo Stock Price Drops 24% After Oklo Earnings Released: What's Oklo Stock Price Target? Is Oklo Stock a Buy Now?

What is Oklo Stock (nyse: oklo) ?

TradingKey - Oklo is an advanced nuclear energy technology company based in California, founded in 2013. It specializes in designing and building small modular reactors (SMRs) to provide clean, reliable energy solutions. The company is backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who also previously served as its CEO. Oklo is currently unprofitable.  

1. Oklo's Business Model

Unlike traditional nuclear power companies, which typically hand over reactor designs to clients for construction and operation, Oklo employs a "Build, Own, Operate" (BOO) model to achieve a closed loop within the nuclear energy industry. Oklo’s revenue primarily stems from long-term power purchase agreements (PPA) with customers, essentially operating as an energy services company. Furthermore, Oklo targets high-energy consumption industries, such as data centers, a differentiation from conventional players.

2. Oklo's Technological Advantages

Oklo’s core technology is its Aurora series of sodium-cooled fast neutron reactors (SMRs). Leveraging the characteristics of fast neutrons, low pressure, and modularity, Oklo has developed nuclear energy solutions that are smaller, safer, more efficient, and more economical.

Specifically, fast neutron reactors can utilize transuranic elements from nuclear waste as fuel, significantly improving fuel utilization and enabling a closed fuel cycle. Furthermore, low-pressure operation substantially enhances equipment safety, while the modular design effectively shortens construction times and reduces capital investment.

In addition, Oklo’s nuclear facilities offer greater flexibility in site selection compared to traditional nuclear power plants. This is because its reactors use liquid sodium as a coolant, eliminating the need to be located near large bodies of water. The compact size of the reactors facilitates transport, and they can function as standalone power sources for direct supply, removing the requirement to connect to a high-voltage grid.

3. Oklo's Future Blueprint

The company is committed to achieving the rapid commercialization of nuclear energy and a closed fuel cycle.

On the commercialization front, Oklo plans to deploy its first commercial-scale Aurora reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory, targeting initial commercial power generation by late 2027 or early 2028. Currently, Oklo has submitted a Combined License Application (COLA) to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its initial 15-megawatt Aurora microreactor.

From a supply chain perspective, Oklo intends to deploy its commercial-scale fuel recycling facility, establishing the first privately funded nuclear fuel recycling plant in the U.S. in Tennessee. This facility will process spent fuel from traditional reactors, recovering usable components to produce the metallic fuel required for Oklo's fast neutron reactors. Oklo anticipates that, upon regulatory approval, this facility will commence operations in the early 2030s.

Regarding fuel recycling technology development, Oklo has demonstrated the technical feasibility of its advanced fuel recycling process through a first-ever end-to-end demonstration of key steps, conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory.

Recent Oklo News

In October 2025, Oklo announced its selection by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to participate in the Advanced Nuclear Fuel Pipeline Pilot Program. This initiative aims to accelerate licensing, construction, and operation, foster private sector investment, and create expedited pathways for approvals. Under this program, Oklo will construct and operate three fuel fabrication facilities.

In the same month, Oklo announced a joint agreement with European advanced nuclear reactor developer Newcleo to invest up to $2 billion in developing advanced fuel manufacturing and production infrastructure in the United States.

In September, groundbreaking commenced for Oklo’s first power plant at the Idaho National Laboratory, the Aurora-INL.

In August, the U.S. Department of Energy selected Oklo as part of its newly established Reactor Pilot Program.

Oklo Stock Price History

May 2024: Post-Listing Plunge

On May 10, 2024, Oklo listed on the New York Stock Exchange via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) but plummeted on its debut, falling from an opening price of $15.5 to $8.45. This decline likely stemmed from premature market speculation that had inflated the stock's valuation, leading to profit-taking and high-level selling by some early investors.

In July 2023, Oklo announced its merger with the SPAC AltC Acquisition. At that time, a flurry of retail investor buying in AltC Acquisition stock drove its cumulative gain to an astonishing 75% before listing, pushing its share price above the SPAC's $10 offering price.

May-September 2024: Volatile Downtrend

Despite Oklo’s highly anticipated listing, the absence of revenue and profitability, coupled with significant uncertainty surrounding its commercialization prospects and regulatory approvals, exerted upward pressure on market sentiment. From May to September 2024, Oklo's stock experienced a volatile downtrend, briefly touching a historic low closing price of $5.59 in early September.

September 2024-October 2025: Robust Rally

In September 2024, after hitting its trough, Oklo's stock began to rebound, gaining over 50% for the month. This monthly surge was driven by progress in collaborations, as the company signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), authorizing site surveys in Idaho and marking a critical next phase in its site preparation.

By late 2024, Oklo partnered with two major data center providers to deliver 750 megawatts of power. Subsequently, it secured a landmark supply deal, entering a framework agreement with data center operator Switch to deploy 12 gigawatts of Oklo Aurora nuclear power plant projects by 2044. Oklo's expanding customer pipeline provided significant support for its substantial rally in 2025.

Furthermore, Oklo's ascent was bolstered by other long-term tailwinds, including U.S. Congressional support for clean energy legislation and increasing energy demand driven by the growth in global data centers. In January 2025, the revised Section 45V of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which extended tax credits to hydrogen produced from nuclear power, ignited Oklo's fervent rally that year.

In the second half of 2025, Oklo's stock repeatedly reached new highs. On May 23, following President Trump's executive order urging the Department of Energy to facilitate the commencement of 10 large reactors by 2030 and upgrade existing ones, Oklo's stock soared 23% that day. On June 11, the company surged 30% in a single session after being selected as a potential power provider for Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. As of November 11, 2025, Oklo's stock has surged over 400% year-to-date.

October 2025-Present: Correction from Highs

After hitting an all-time high of $193.84 on October 15, Oklo’s stock began a significant correction. The fundamental reason for this lies in the fact that Oklo, as a nuclear energy startup with no revenue, continuously expanding losses, unobtained operating licenses, and all signed agreements being non-binding, saw its market capitalization briefly exceed $20 billion and its stock price surge over 500% this year, indicating an overheated valuation.

Oklo Stock Price Target

For reference, Investing.com's average 12-month analyst price target is $101.57. As of the close on November 11, the stock traded at $104.22. Out of 18 analysts, 10 have issued a "buy" rating.

Oklo Earnings: Zero Revenue to Date, Widening Losses, What Factors Should Impact Oklo Stock Price?

1. Oklo Q3 2025 Earnings Snapshot

Oklo's Q3 2025 earnings report, disclosed on November 11, highlighted several key points: ① Earnings per share (EPS) showed a loss more than 40% higher than analyst estimates and a significant widening from the prior year; ② Net loss for the third quarter reached $29.72 million, nearly 60% higher than analyst expectations and far exceeding the loss from the same period last year; ③ Research and development operating expenses were $14.9 million, almost 55% above analyst forecasts; ④ The company has yet to generate any operating revenue.

In short, Oklo's losses exceeded expectations and continue to grow, with zero revenue, indicating significant challenges to profitability.

2. Operational and Regulatory Progress Outweighs Revenue

As a high-growth, high-risk, pre-revenue stock, Oklo’s technological, operational, and regulatory advancements warrant closer investor attention than traditional financial metrics. Oklo’s valuation is largely built on market speculation about its future prospects; financial indicators merely serve as a test of its cash management. However, actual project progress directly drives and validates market expectations.

Oklo has recently achieved several critical milestones. On November 11, the U.S. Department of Energy approved Oklo’s nuclear safety design protocol for its fuel fabrication facility, which will be used to manufacture fuel for Oklo’s first commercial-scale power plant. This fuel facility was selected for another independent project in late September, following the Aurora-INL plant's inclusion in the DOE Reactor Pilot Program in August.

Currently, licensing approvals under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program are advancing, with full excavation projected for January 2026. The DOE pilot program mandates the completion of at least three test reactors at national laboratories nationwide by July 2026, which is earlier than the company’s original schedule.

Furthermore, on November 11, Oklo also announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with operating contractor Battelle Energy Alliance, expanding scientific research collaboration in advanced fuels and materials.

3. Monitoring Cash Runway: How Long Can Existing Cash Reserves Sustain Operations?

Cash runway refers to the period a company can operate normally before exhausting its cash, a crucial financial metric for pre-revenue startups. Startups typically aim for a 12-18 month cash runway.

As of the end of Q3 2025, Oklo held $410 million in cash and cash equivalents, along with $773.5 million in marketable securities. Based on the company's reaffirmed full-year operating cash burn guidance of $65 million to $80 million, Oklo possesses a longer cash runway than typical startups.

This extended runway allows the company to sustain operations and research and development during the capital-intensive and time-consuming licensing process without requiring continuous fundraising, which is a positive signal for Oklo.

However, it is important to note that the commencement of projects like the Aurora power plant construction and fuel recycling facilities will entail substantial capital expenditures, which could accelerate cash consumption.

4. Policy Environment

As observed from the analysis of past stock price movements, policy direction is a significant influencing factor for Oklo's share price. Expedited regulatory approvals, securing operating licenses, or the introduction of tax credit policies would all accelerate Oklo's project progress or reduce costs, thereby benefiting the stock.

5. The AI Narrative

The industry adage "the end of AI is power" is well exemplified by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's personal investment in Oklo. He not only provides financial support but, more significantly, has opened up the market's imagination for nuclear power. The AI narrative cleverly redirects some of the current market's enthusiasm for AI investment into related industries.

For instance, in May 2025, President Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at fostering a revival of the U.S. nuclear energy industry to meet the continually growing power demands of AI data centers, defense, and military sectors. This news directly propelled a surge in nuclear energy stocks. Currently, as AI giants increase their investments in nuclear power companies, the bond between nuclear power and the AI industry is strengthening, positioning it to further benefit from the AI investment boom in the future.

Is Now the Right Time to Buy in Oklo stock?

Despite a 24% decline in stock price over the past month, Oklo has still surged a remarkable 425% year-to-date (as of November 11 close) , positioning it at a historical high compared to other periods.

From a financial metric standpoint, Oklo has not yet generated revenue, precluding analysis based on price-to-earnings or price-to-sales ratios. Its price-to-book ratio is significantly higher than the average for the U.S. utility sector and even exceeds more mature nuclear energy companies, suggesting that Oklo’s current valuation is excessive, and investors should be wary of a potential valuation bubble.

In the long term, given the immense market potential of the nuclear energy industry and Oklo's innovative technological pathway and unique business model, an investment now could potentially yield substantial returns in the future.

However, investors must also be mindful of the significant risks stemming from high uncertainty. This uncertainty primarily arises from the regulatory approval process; if not successfully navigated, Oklo cannot commence formal operations, effectively rendering its technological and business model advantages moot. Investors buying into the stock could lose their entire investment.Furthermore, factors such as Oklo’s unproven technological pathway and the prospect of substantially high upfront capital expenditures also warrant consideration.

Long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, who possess strong conviction in Oklo's fundamentals and believe its potential returns outweigh the risks, may consider buying the stock, but prudent position sizing is advised.