New Bitcoin Record – The Start of a Second-Half Surge?

TradingKey - Bitcoin (BTC) broke out to a new all-time high of over 118,000 this week. Although it briefly breached 110,000 in late May, the price repeatedly dipped back toward $98,000 in the weeks that followed — until this time’s decisive rally pushed it firmly above the previous range.

On-chain data gives us a pretty clear picture.

According to Santiment, a leading blockchain analytics firm, Bitcoin’s breakout came after a quiet stretch where activity — especially among smaller wallets — slowed down. That might sound bearish at first, but history tells us it’s usually during these “boring” periods that the whales start buying. It’s a pattern we’ve seen repeat: retail investors lose interest or get scared, and that’s when institutional players and long-term holders step in — right before prices head higher.

Ethereum (ETH) seems to follow a similar playbook. When short-term traders leave the table, the so-called “smart money” tends to take the lead. This rotation from weak hands to strong ones suggests we could still be in the early innings of a broader move — especially for those playing the long game.

And it’s not just fundamental flows. Data from CoinGlass shows over $318 million in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours on Thursday across centralized exchanges. That’s a lot of forced buying, which adds fuel to the price rally. When that many bears are caught on the wrong side of momentum, their exit just adds more upside pressure.

Macro Tailwinds: Policy, Debt, and the Search for Store-of-Value Assets

The macro environment is also giving Bitcoin a bit of a boost.

Take the "Big Beautiful Bill" — a sweeping tax and spending proposal backed by Donald Trump. It’s already creating waves on Capitol Hill for proposing major tax cuts for corporations and high earners, while pulling back on federal aid programs. Based on current estimates, the bill could add about 3trilliontotheU.S.deficitoverthenextdecade—andcloserto3trilliontotheU.S.deficitoverthenextdecade—andcloserto5 trillion if temporary tax breaks are extended long-term.

While the bill might not push the U.S. into an immediate fiscal crisis, it does raise a red flag about long-term debt sustainability. That’s pushing more investors toward alternative stores of value — and Bitcoin, with its hard-cap supply and decentralized design, is increasingly part of that conversation right alongside gold.

At the same time, tech stocks have been surging — especially the AI trade, led by Nvidia — and that’s fueling risk-on sentiment across the board. As crypto becomes more tech-aligned in investors’ minds, Bitcoin is benefitting. In fact, we’re starting to see more institutions treat the “AI + Bitcoin” narrative as a thematic pairing, investing in both computing power and digital assets as a hedge on future technology-driven value creation.

Meanwhile, the Fed hasn't formally cut rates yet, but the tone is softening. In a recent address, Governor Christopher Waller hinted that with inflation cooling, jobs data stabilizing, and tariff-driven price hikes mostly limited to a few sectors, the central bank should stay open to a potential rate cut as early as July.

That’s music to the ears of risk-asset investors — including crypto bulls. A dovish, data-driven Fed helps support assets priced in dollars, and crypto’s definitely part of that camp now.

Crypto Stocks Riding the Wave: Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood, and More

As Bitcoin pushed into record territory, crypto-related stocks followed right behind.

Coinbase (COIN) jumped over 4% this week and has had a very strong year so far. Not only was it added to the S&P 500 in May (which sent shares soaring 10% after-hours), but it also announced plans to buy Dubai-based crypto derivatives exchange Deribit in 2025 — a big move in expanding its international footprint. On top of that, Coinbase has just partnered with AI search startup Perplexity AI to deliver real-time crypto data services, showing it’s serious about leading the pack on both Web3 and AI.

Then there’s MicroStrategy (MSTR), the OG “Bitcoin stock.” The company holds an enormous amount of BTC on its balance sheet and has used clever capital strategies like “at-the-market” offerings to raise funds at favorable price levels. That means less dilution and more confidence from investors. While it’s still dealing with asset impairments and occasional quarterly losses, investors seem to be treating it more like a single-asset ETF — and they’re rewarding the bullish stance.

Robinhood (HOOD) is also having a breakout year, with shares up over 160%. Its push into tokenized US equities and blockchain-native financial infrastructure is gaining attention. According to Morgan Stanley, the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market could top $10 trillion by 2025 — and Hood is positioning itself to play a lead role, especially as tokenization expands into bonds, REITs, and more. And legacy giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already in the game.

Even Bitcoin miners got a small lift. Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) were among the names that ticked higher, thanks to improved BTC economics and growing hash rate profitability.

Stablecoins Go Mainstream: Circle’s Breakout Year

As Bitcoin rallies, demand for stablecoins like USDC also tends to rise — and that’s playing out in a big way for Circle (CRCL).

Circle’s share price surged more than 9% in a single day this week. As the issuer of USDC, Circle earns revenue from interest on reserves and transaction fees — both of which grow as stablecoin usage goes up.

Since going public, Circle has been steadily gaining market share in the global stablecoin space. Total USDC supply is expected to cross $60 billion by 2025, giving it a projected 26% global market share. Recent regulatory wins — such as the passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act that clarifies rules around stablecoins — have given CRCL even more momentum.

And the company isn’t slowing down. Circle has applied for a federal charter to launch “First National Digital Currency Bank,” aiming to become a trust bank that integrates stablecoin issuance directly into the U.S. financial system. That would be a huge step toward making stablecoins fully interoperable with traditional finance.

Big payment players are also taking notice. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and PayPal (PYPL) are all rolling out stablecoin pilots focused on cross-border settlement and merchant integration. Meanwhile, tech and retail giants like Amazon, Walmart, Apple, and Uber are exploring ways to use stablecoins for things like supply chain payments and in-app purchases.

Stablecoins aren’t just for DeFi anymore — they’re going mainstream.

What to Watch: Bitcoin and Stablecoin Leaders

If you're looking to gain exposure to crypto through equities or ETFs, here are some of the names making moves:

Bitcoin-Linked Stocks:

• MicroStrategy (MSTR)
• Coinbase (COIN)
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT)
• Bitfarms (BITF)
• Cipher Mining (CIFR)
• Hut 8 Mining Corp (HUT)
• Bakkt Holdings (BKKT)
• Twenty One Capital (XXI)
• Applied Digital Corp (APLD)

Stablecoin-Related Companies:

• Circle (CRCL)
• PayPal (PYPL)
• Fiserv (FISV)
• Visa (V)
• Mastercard (MA)
• Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) ※ Active in both BTC and stablecoins
• Block Inc. (SQ / formerly Square)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)
• Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC)
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

Get Started Now