Why Fed Policy May Decide the Market’s Next Big Move？

The S&P 500 Index has had a remarkable run over the last six years due to such factors as artificial intelligence, strong underpinning earnings growth, and accommodative monetary policy helping the market to produce an extended bull market. However, this strong performance has had a cost associated with valuations being high.

Price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) currently reflect a significant deviation from historical ranges, placing the market at valuation levels that are only seen at the height of the dot-com bubble and after a time of unprecedented liquidity following the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, although, on a stock-by-stock basis, the S&P 500 comprises high-quality names, as an aggregate, the S&P 500 Index has evolved from a diversified basket of quality companies with high valuation levels to one that is reliant on favourable macroeconomic (primarily rate of interest policy) conditions to justify appropriate valuations.

Jerome Powell has become a key player at the Federal Reserve's table.

Previously, when the Fed begins to implement its easing plans after a lengthy period of stable rates, research has shown that equity markets have performed well historically after their transition to a cutting phase. The S&P 500 typically sees an average 13% increase over the subsequent 12 months following that type of transition.

But this time around, things are far more complicated.

Powell has stated that he will take a data-driven approach to employment, so it is not a given that he will make any rate cuts at all. If inflation accelerates again as a result of rising energy costs, there is a strong possibility that he will keep rates steady or potentially increase them.

Equity markets will likely face a two-fold outcome based on Powell's decisions:

1) Continued disinflation → Positive policy → Equity positive

2) Ongoing inflation → Positive policy → Negative effect on valuations

Thus, the S&P 500 is currently directly correlated with macroeconomic and fundamental conditions as opposed to the actual fundamentals themselves.

While there are major uncertainties globally; the underlying fundamentals of US corporate performance still look good.

Expectations by Wall Street include:

• Modestly accelerating revenue growth
• Growth of earnings greater than 15% by 2026
• Increased growth of earnings by companies outside the mega-cap technology sector

The above expectations are a big reason why, despite some of the worst institutional investors being bearish, their target prices for SP500 still imply a positive return between the mid-single digits and high-single digits, with the majority of forecasts being around a 10% gain for the year.

Additionally, volatility itself may be a positive signal for future gains. For most of the history of VIX, which is usually referred to as the “fear index,” large increases have usually preceded strong future returns, often greater than 20%, over the following 12 months.

This indicates that brief periods of instability can occur without preventing a sustained bullish outlook for a longer period.

In addition to the broader macro-economic environment, we now have another layer of uncertainty to factor into our 2026 projections: the possibility that there will be leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

Jerome Powell's term ends and we have entered a highly politicized process for either a change in leadership or continuity of leadership. Specifically, the disputes regarding succession and where the Fed is headed with respect to monetary policy may create instability at a time when the market is most sensitive to how the Fed is going to guide and support the economy.

Historically, the markets have preferred continuity of monetary policy and leadership. Any perception of political interference or rapid changes in monetary policy has the potential to do the following:

• Create increased volatility
• Decrease investor confidence
• Cause risk assets to undergo a repricing

In a market that has already priced near perfect conditions, the uncertainty associated with these events becomes non-trivial.

Despite continuing to be optimistic about future performance, historical data shows caution.

The pattern for S&P 500 prices when the forward operating multiple is high (greater than 22 times the FTSE 100) indicates that near-term price increases will slow down relative to their long-term trendline.

In fact, the average return for all S&P 500 stocks has been approximately 7% over the next 12 months, which is much less than the average return over a longer period of time (i.e. around 10%).

Above all else, periods of lower valuation multiples are often associated with increased capital losses, regardless of the overall trend upward.

Thus, there is support for the idea that while there will be upward movement in equities, the pace will likely be slower and more chaotic.

The S&P 500’s outlook for the end of 2026 does not consist of just a single story. It contains stories based on three pieces of information that interact with each other.

These three components are:

• Monetary policy as affected by Jerome Powell
• Continued earnings growth of corporations
• High valuations relative to fundamentals

These three forces will drive the shift to be made in the market regime.

Equities are now entering a new environment where returns from equities will be influenced more by execution, macroeconomic stability, and clarity of policy rather than being simply based on liquidity.

Investors need to adapt to this new environment with their positioning by doing the following:

• Continue to expect upside but at a much slower pace
• Be prepared for increased volatility as a result of policy related changes

Watch inflation and Fed communication closely as the predominant catalyst for movement in both equity and fixed income markets.

The S&P 500 at the end of 2026 is a much more volatile policy dependent market than it was in late 2021 and is no longer simply a function of what companies are doing with respect to AI, earnings, and/or market momentum levels. The potential return for the S&P 500 from now to the end of 2026 will be more dependent on the action of the Federal Reserve than it was from the end of 2020 to late 2021.

As such, the most important question moving forward isn’t how fast companies grow, but rather how long will Jerome Powell allow the market to run.