Why Are Bitcoin Prices Still Sluggish Despite Soaring Fed Rate Cut Expectations?

TradingKey – Persistent inflation is capping risk appetite, and whales are offloading Bitcoin en masse. Has the market already priced in a September rate cut?

On Monday (September 8), despite growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, Bitcoin (BTC) remained weak, trading around $110,000. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rebounded just 0.29%, currently quoted at $110,929.

Bitcoin Price Chart, Source: TradingView

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released disappointing August non-farm payroll data, showing only 22,000 new jobs — far below the expected 75,000 — reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut. After the data drop, Bitcoin spiked to $113,000 before retreating.

While rate-cut expectations have surged, they haven’t halted whale selling. CryptoQuant data shows whales have dumped 119,000 BTC in the past 30+ days — the largest sell-off since July 2022.

This anticipated rate cut may not rejuvenate risk appetite. Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, explains, “Rate cuts can signal economic weakness, and persistent inflation combined with cautious sentiment is limiting risk appetite.” He adds, “Without stronger ETF inflows or genuine liquidity expansion, the $120,000 level remains a formidable barrier.”

Despite ongoing whale sales, governments and crypto firms have held or even increased their Bitcoin positions, stabilizing the market and curbing panic selling. In the past 30 days, Strategy (MSTR) added 7,714 BTC; Bullish (BLSH) added 24,000 BTC; and Metaplanet added 2,514 BTC.

On September 17, the Fed meets again. Will it curb further whale selling and boost Bitcoin’s price? According to BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas, the market has already priced in some easing. However, if the Fed cuts rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points, Bitcoin could see a reversal.

Currently, CME’s “FedWatch” shows a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September and an 8% chance of a 50-point cut. For October, there’s a 72.6% probability of a cumulative 50-point cut and a 6.2% chance of 75 points in total.