莫肯泰爾銀行 (MBWM) 2026 年第三季法說會：淨息差升至 3.73%

重點總覽

• Mercantile Bank Corporation 公布 2026 年第三季淨利為 2,410 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 1.39 美元，而 2025 年第三季為 2,380 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 1.46 美元。
• 淨利息收益率年增 24 個基點至 3.73%，主要受惠於資金成本降低、收購 Eastern Michigan Bank 以及固定利率貸款與證券的重新定價。
• 儘管 2026 年前九個月有 4.48 億美元的企業貸款全額償還與部分償還，企業貸款仍較 2025 年底成長 9%。放款承諾金額達到 5.89 億美元，創下五個季度新高。
• 總存款年增 17%，其中無息存款成長 22%。定期存單減少約 1.8 億美元，主因是經紀定期存單減少。
• 資產品質保持強勁。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日，不良資產占總資產的 14 個基點，逾期放款占總貸款的 3 個基點。
• 展望 2026 年第四季，管理層預估年化淨貸款成長率為 5% 至 7%，淨利息收益率提升，有效聯邦稅率約為 17%。

核心財務數據

2026 年前九個月，淨利總計 7,270 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 4.21 美元，高於去年同期的 6,590 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 4.06 美元。調整後淨利為 7,610 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 4.41 美元，高於去年同期的 6,640 萬美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 4.09 美元。

業務與營運表現

企業放款仍為主要成長動能。企業貸款較 2025 年底成長 9%，放款承諾（包含未撥款的建築貸款部分）從一年前的 3.86 億美元增至 5.89 億美元。管理層表示，新案源管線維持強勁，儘管資產出售、轉貸與過剩現金流帶來大量的還款。

存款成長改善了資金結構。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止的 12 個月中，總存款成長 17%。無息存款成長 22%，有息存款成長 15%。管理層將此成長歸因於企業客戶關係、公共基金以及收購 Eastern Michigan Bank。定期存單減少約 1.8 億美元，降低了對高成本定期資金的依賴。

2026 年前九個月非利息收入成長 16%。帳戶服務費成長 34%，信用卡與簽帳金融卡收入成長 22%，利率交換收入成長 11%，主要反映了企業客戶關係的擴展。

非利息費用在第三季年增 880 萬美元，前九個月年增 2,580 萬美元。Eastern Michigan Bank 貢獻了第三季非利息費用中的 410 萬美元。其他推動因素包括薪資與福利增加、密西根州東南部人員招聘、技術投資以及與核心和數位銀行系統轉換相關的費用。

管理層展望指引

管理層對 2026 年第四季的假設建立在聯邦基金利率維持不變的基礎上，同時也承認市場狀況仍具波動性。

• 考量強勁的企業放款案源與預期還款，預計年化淨貸款成長率為 5% 至 7%。
• 在企業貸款成長、芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行現金餘額降低，以及低收益固定利率商業不動產貸款與證券重新定價的支撐下，預計淨利息收益率將有所提升。
• 預計有效聯邦稅率約為 17%。
• 與密西根州東南部人員投資、系統轉換獎勵措施及 Eastern Michigan 整合相關的一次性費用，預計 2026 年第四季為 120 萬美元，2027 年第一季為 70 萬美元。
• 自 2027 年 4 月 1 日起，管理層預計每季資料處理與對帳單處理費用將減少 60 萬美元。

管理層預計，在利率變化的環境下，淨利息收益率在未來幾個季度將保持相對穩定，並有可能微幅提升。存款定價行為（特別是貨幣市場帳戶）仍難以建模。

風險與關注焦點

2026 年前九個月的企業貸款還款總額達 4.48 億美元，高於 2025 年同期的 3.06 億美元。管理層指出，來自過剩現金流的還款是未來貸款成長中最難預測的部分。

公共基金存款具有季節性，且在密西根州第三季稅收強勁徵集後，預計將在 10 月和 11 月進一步下滑。

管理層還提到非定期存款 Beta 值、未來人員投資以及 2027 年費用成長的不確定性。房貸業務收入預計在第四季出現季節性下滑，而利率交換收入可能放緩，主因是客戶在中期利率變化的背景下變得更加猶豫。

分析師問答亮點

• 淨利息收益率敏感度：管理層表示，資產重新定價相對容易建模，但非定期存款行為較難預測。貨幣市場帳戶預計將是對利率最敏感的存款類別。
• 密西根州東南部擴展：Mercantile 已從兩年前僅具備小規模商業銀行業務，擴充至約六位企業客戶經理。管理層預期將繼續招聘，但無法預測具體時程。
• 流動性配置：第三季存放於聯準會的平均現金約為 4.25 億美元。管理層預估第四季平均金額將降至 3 億美元區間的高段，這應能支撐淨利息收益率擴張。
• 邁向 2027 年的貸款成長：管理層預估目前的部分新案源將延續至 2027 年，並希望存款成長能與貸款成長大致匹配。企業存款案源管線的強勁程度被描述為與貸款案源管線大致相當。
• 證券重新定價：證券投資組合的平均存續期間約為四年，並採用梯形到期策略。約有 1,600 萬美元平均殖利率為 1.5% 的證券預定於第四季到期，隨後在 2027 年還將有 1 億美元平均殖利率為 2.5% 的證券到期。
• 信用品質：管理層表示，不良貸款微幅增加並不代表經濟或投資組合出現系統性問題。管理層也將近年第四季呆帳沖銷的模式歸因於巧合，而非精心的清理策略。

法說會完整逐字稿

---

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Mercantile Bank Corporation 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Nichole Kladder, Chief Marketing Officer of Mercantile Bank. Please go ahead.

Nichole Kladder

Hello, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will cover the company's financial results for the third quarter of 2026. The team members joining me this morning include Ray Reitsma, President and Chief Executive Officer; as well as Chuck Christmas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda will begin with prepared remarks by both Ray and Chuck and will include references to our presentation covering this quarter's results. You can access a copy of this presentation as well as the press release sent earlier today by visiting mercbank.com. After our prepared remarks, we will then open the call to your questions.

Before we begin, it is my responsibility to inform you that this call may involve certain forward-looking statements such as projections of revenue, earnings and capital structure as well as statements on the plans and objectives of the company's business. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements made today due to factors described in the company's latest Securities and Exchange Commission's filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call.

Let's begin.

Ray?

Raymond Reitsma

Thank you, Nichole. Our results from the third quarter continue to build on the theme of commercial expertise generating a strong return profile. My comments will focus on highlights around the net interest margin, loan and deposit growth, asset quality, noninterest income and noninterest expense. Chuck will then follow with the specifics of the quarter.

The net interest margin improved to 3.73% during the third quarter of 2026 from 3.49% during the third quarter of 2025. This improvement was driven largely by a reduction in the cost of funds resulting from the acquisition of Eastern and the refinement of our deposit base, including a decrease in broker deposits and the repricing of fixed rate loans and securities with continued opportunities for asset repricing in 2026 and 2027.

In addition, the margin expansion occurred in a dynamic interest rate environment. From the third quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, SOFR declined by 67 basis points and our net interest margin increased by 6 basis points. From the first quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2026, SOFR was unchanged and our net interest margin increased by 18 basis points, highlighting the impact of the in -- actions listed above. The chart on Page 11 of the investor presentation illustrates these dynamics.

Turning to loans. Commercial loans, our largest asset class, increased 9% from the prior year-end quarter end and helped drive a 17% increase in revenue compared with the third quarter of 2025. That growth occurred despite elevated pay downs from asset and business sales, excess cash flow and refinancing to the secondary markets totaling $448 million for the 9 months ending 9/30/2026 compared to $306 million during the respective 2025 period.

At the same time, lending commitments, including unfunded portions of construction loans, stand at a 5-quarter high of $589 million at September 30, 2026, compared to $386 million at 9/30/2025. Asset quality continues to be strong with nonperforming assets representing only 14 basis points and 16 basis points of total assets at September 30, 2026 and September 30, 2025, respectively.

Past due loans stand at just 3 basis points of total loans as of September 30, 2026. C&I and owner-occupied commercial real estate remain near our target of 55% of the commercial portfolio with appropriate granularity relative to loan type classifications. These solid metrics reflect continued discipline in underwriting standards, a strong credit culture and the quality of our client base.

On the funding side, our focus on deposits continues to produce results. Total deposits increased 17% over the last 12 months ending September 30, 2026, including 22% growth in noninterest-bearing deposits and 15% growth in interest-bearing deposits. This growth principally reflects growth in commercial relationships, the development of relationships in the public funds markets and, of course, the acquisition of Eastern Michigan Bank.

Importantly, overall deposit growth occurred as certificates of deposit declined by approximately $180 million over the same period. This decline primarily represents brokered CDs. And as a result, the overall quality of our funding mix continues to improve, while our reliance on higher cost term funding continues to decline.

Noninterest income in total increased 16% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the respective 2025 period, including a 34% increase in service charges on accounts, a 22% increase in credit and debit card income and an 11% increase in swap income, in large part reflecting growth in commercial relationships. We have characterized 2026 as a year of investment around people and technology, including a change in our core systems provider, which is reflected in our noninterest expense.

Investments in people include additional costs around the company in general and particularly in Southeast Michigan as we take the opportunity afforded by disruptions in that market. Chuck will comment on what our normalized run rate will look like in upcoming quarters. We remain excited about our combination with Eastern and the opportunities to add customers and employees to our bank as we capitalize on disruptions to markets in Michigan, particularly Southeast Michigan. That concludes my remarks.

I will now turn the call over to Chuck.

Charles Christmas

Thanks, Ray. Good morning, everyone. This morning, we announced net income of $24.1 million or $1.39 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026 compared with net income of $23.8 million or $1.46 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2025. Net income during the first 9 months of 2026 totaled $72.7 million or $4.21 per diluted share compared to $65.9 million or $4.06 per diluted share during the first 9 months of 2025.

Growth in net income during both time frames primarily reflected increased net interest income and noninterest income that more than offset higher noninterest expenses and federal income tax expense. Excluding nonrecurring costs associated with the year-end 2025 acquisition of Eastern Michigan and the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the impacts of smaller onetime items, adjusted net income was $24.5 million or $1.42 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026, $24.3 million or $1.50 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2025, $76.1 million or $4.41 per diluted share for the first 9 months of 2026 and $66.4 million or $4.09 per diluted share for the first 9 months of 2025.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share decreased $0.08 or approximately 5% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025 and increased $0.32 per diluted share or approximately 8% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the first 9 months of 2025. We believe using these non-GAAP measurements reflects our core earnings performance and provides for a more accurate current period versus prior period comparisons.

Interest income on loans increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, primarily reflecting loan growth that was partially offset by a lower yield on loans. Average loans totaled $4.97 billion during the third quarter of 2026 compared to $4.6 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $300 million. Mercantile Bank experienced robust commercial loan fundings throughout 2026, but also received significant payoffs and partial paydowns of certain larger commercial loans aggregating $448 million.

Our yield on loans during the third quarter of 2026 was 23 basis points lower than the third quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting the 75 basis point aggregate decline in the federal funds rate during the last 4 months of 2025. Interest income on securities increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, reflecting growth in the securities portfolio and a higher yield. The growth in higher yield reflect the acquisition of Eastern Michigan, along with ongoing portfolio expansion and the reinvestment of matured lower-yielding investments at Mercantile Bank. Average balances were up $284 million and the average yield increased 53 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

Interest income on other interest-earning assets, a large portion of which is comprised of funds on deposit with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, declined during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025, but increased during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. The average yield decreased 67 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 75 basis points year-to-date over year-to-date, largely depicting the 75 basis point decrease in the Fed funds rate during the last 4 months of 2025. The average balance was $9 million lower in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025, but was $110 million higher during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the first 9 months of 2025.

In total, interest income was $4.6 million and $14.5 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the respective prior year period. Interest expense on deposits decreased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, reflecting a lower cost of deposits that more than offset interest-bearing deposit growth. The growth in interest-bearing deposit balances and the lower cost of these funds reflected the acquisition of Eastern Michigan, along with growth and lower deposit costs at Mercantile Bank. Cost of interest-bearing deposits at both banks were positively impacted by the decline in the Fed funds rate in the latter part of 2025.

Average interest-bearing deposits totaled $4 billion during the third quarter of 2026 compared to $3.61 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $389 million. The cost of all deposits was down 51 basis points during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025 and down 49 basis points during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025.

Interest expense on Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis advances declined during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting a lower average balance that more than offset a higher average cost. Interest expense on other borrowed funds increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting the impact of a term loan we obtained in late 2025 to assist in the cash portion of the Eastern Michigan acquisition. In total, interest expense was $4.3 million and $9.6 million lower during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods.

Net interest income increased $8.9 million and $24.0 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods, primarily reflecting growth in earning assets and a higher net interest margin. Average earning assets totaled $6.52 billion during the third quarter of 2026, compared to $5.94 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $575 million. Average assets increased $664 million during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. The growth in average earning assets during both time periods largely reflects the acquisition of Eastern Michigan at year-end 2025, along with loan and investment growth at Mercantile Bank.

The net interest margin was 3.73% during the third quarter of 2026 compared to 3.49% during the third quarter of 2025 and was 3.62% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to 3.48% during the first 9 months of 2025. The improvement during both time periods is largely due to the Eastern Michigan acquisition. The yield on earning assets declined 22 basis points and 29 basis points during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, while the cost of funds declined 46 basis points and 43 basis points during the same 2026 time periods.

We recorded provisions for credit losses of $0.7 million and negative $2.9 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively. The third quarter provision expense mainly reflected a net increase of $1.7 million in specific allocations and an increase of $0.6 million associated with net loan growth which was partially offset by a $1.5 million reduction resulting from faster prepayment speeds on the residential mortgage loan portfolio.

The reserve balance increased $1 million during the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the $0.7 million provision expense and net loan recoveries of $0.3 million. The reserve balance equaled 1.14% of total loans as of September 30, 2026. Our sustained strength in loan quality metrics continues to be impactful to our loan loss reserve calculations. The baseline allowance, largely determined from historical net loan charge-off activity represents only 1/3 of our current reserve balance, reflecting a low level of net loan charge-off activity during our look-back period from the beginning of 2011 through the end of the third quarter of 2026.

Specific reserve allocations totaled just $2.6 million or about 5% of the reserve balance as of September 30. Noninterest expenses were $8.8 million and $25.8 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods. Excluding onetime costs associated with the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and year-end 2025 acquisition of Eastern Michigan that aggregated $0.6 million and $4.4 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, and $0.6 million during both the third quarter and first 9 months of 2025, noninterest expenses increased $8.8 million and $21.9 million compared to the prior year periods.

Eastern Michigan Bank's noninterest expenses totaled $4.1 million and $12.1 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively. The increase in core operating costs largely reflects higher salary and benefit costs, including expenses associated with personnel investments in Southeast Michigan and incentive accruals related to the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the integration of Eastern Michigan Bank. The remaining growth generally depicts inflation impacts and a larger balance sheet.

Federal income tax expense was $1.2 million and $3.2 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting a higher level of pretax net income and a lower level of net benefits from transferable energy tax credits. The effective tax rate was 16.8% during both the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to 13.4% and 14.9% during the respective time periods in 2025. The 2025 periods had higher levels of transferable energy tax credit activity given carryback opportunities.

Additional acquisitions of transferable energy tax credits may be made from time to time, subject to our investment policy, tax credit availability and tax credits derived from our low-income housing and historical tax credit activities. Both Mercantile and Eastern Michigan Bank have strong and well-capitalized regulatory capital positions. Mercantile Bank's total risk-based capital ratio was 13.4% at September 30, $200 million above the minimum threshold to be categorized as well capitalized. Eastern Michigan Bank's total risk-based capital ratio was 23.9% as of September 30, $39 million above the minimum threshold to be categorized as well capitalized.

We did not repurchase shares during the third quarter of 2026. We have $6.8 million available in our current repurchase plans. In regard to the fourth quarter, on Slide 27 of the investor presentation, we share our latest assumptions on the interest rate environment and key performance metrics for the fourth quarter with the caveat that market conditions remain volatile, making forecasting difficult. The forecast is predicated on no changes -- in the federal funds rate during the quarter, although we believe our net interest margin will remain relatively stable in a changing interest rate environment.

We are projecting net loan growth in a range of 5% to 7% annualized, which encompasses a strong commercial loan pipeline as well as expected commercial loan payoffs. We are forecasting a higher net interest margin during the quarter as we benefit from commercial loan growth, lower levels of moneys at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and maturing low-yielding fixed rate commercial real estate loans and investments. We are projecting a federal tax rate of approximately 17%, which encompasses continued growth in net benefits from our low-income housing and historical tax credit activities, along with additional transferable energy tax credit investments.

Expected quarterly results for noninterest income and noninterest expense are also provided for your reference. Noninterest expense projections reflect ongoing personnel investments made in Southeast Michigan as well as to support operational areas as we switch core and digital banking providers to enhance the durability, efficiency and experience for our customers and employees. Nonrecurring costs associated with the core and digital banking system conversions are not included.

Onetime expenses associated with the recent personnel investments in Southeast Michigan and incentive accruals related to the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the integration of Eastern Michigan Bank totaled $2.4 million during the third quarter of 2026. These costs are projected to aggregate $1.2 million during the fourth quarter of 2026 and $0.7 million during the first quarter of 2027.

Starting April 1, 2027, we project a $0.6 million quarterly reduction in our data processing and statement processing costs. In closing, we are very well -- very pleased with our operating results during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 and continued strong financial condition and believe we remain well positioned to continually successfully navigate through the myriad of challenges and uncertainties faced by all financial institutions. That concludes my remarks.

I'll now turn the call back to Ray.

Raymond Reitsma

Thank you, Chuck. That concludes the prepared comments from management. We will now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group. [Operator Instructions]

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.

分析師問答

Nathan Race

Chuck, I was hoping to just start on the margin outlook. I appreciate the guide for 4Q. But as you look out to next year, I think in your comments, you alluded to 25 basis points of rate cuts to the extent they occur next year, should be pretty margin neutral. I'm just curious, underpinning that, are you expecting pretty similar betas on both loans and deposits, just perhaps given that some of the strong deposit growth you guys have generated over the last several quarters is maybe coming from some higher -- from some clients that maybe demand more around rate hikes? Or just any thoughts on just kind of deposit loan expectations into next year?

Charles Christmas

Yes. Nathan, great question. I think what we look at is the asset side is pretty easy to model out when you're looking at rate changes. It's obviously the nonmaturing deposits, which is the tricky part in trying to understand what the betas are going to look like. And I think those -- quite frankly, I think those change over time. And I think the attitudes change a lot in regards to how aggressive or nonaggressive the Fed is. If they kind of do a drip, drip, say, 25 basis points, these are all examples, each quarter.

I don't think the depositors and the markets are as sensitive to changing rates. But if the Fed gets aggressive, maybe 2 changes, 2 increases a quarter or maybe throwing a 50 basis point out there. I just think it makes more attention, and I do think it has an impact on the betas. So that's one of those things that just is impossible to really model accurately. I think there's really two areas that we've seen most of the deposit growth, and this is obviously excluding the Eastern Michigan deposit portfolio that came over, which is fantastic, both in cost as well as durability.

Noninterest-bearing checking accounts, which is primarily related to continued expansion of the commercial loan portfolio, including those that maybe get a line of credit, but are generally net depositors. The bank, obviously, we love those. And then the money market accounts. I would certainly -- would agree with the spirit of your question that the rates on money market accounts are probably going to be the most sensitive and certainly the most immediate that we have out there. We do have a product where some of our bigger customers are actually -- their rate is actually tied to the Fed funds rate. So those do immediately reprice. So those are pretty easy to model.

But our money market product is tiered based on balance and obviously, different rates for different balances. I will say that the -- at least in the first increase here in September, the changes that we actually made were a little bit less than what we had beta'd out. So a little bit of a benefit to the margin there. But it's early yet. Everybody is trying to dissect within our markets of what's going on and looking at their own balance sheet. So it's a very dynamic. Hopefully, we can -- our betas -- our actual betas are going to be less than what we modeled. But it's way too early to tell. And actually, I think it's subject to ongoing change anyways.

But on an overall basis, the way we model it out, the way that we balance -- have managed our balance sheet, it is certainly our goal and our expectation that certainly over several quarters that our margin would remain relatively stable, maybe a small increase. We do show in our results a model of a slight increase in our margin if rates do go up. But on an overall basis, we're trying to be agnostic to rate changes. We can't control interest rates. Nobody can predict interest rates. So our goal is to make, I won't say bulletproof, but make ourselves very durable in any changing interest rate environment and not having to hope because obviously, that is not a good strategy for long term in regards to our margin. Hopefully, that helps you, Nathan.

Nathan Race

Yes, absolutely. That's really helpful. And maybe a larger broader question for Ray. Just thinking about operating leverage for next year. I think over the last couple of years, there's been some substantial investments on the personnel side, particularly on deposit gathering and you've obviously had success kind of getting the loan-deposit ratio well below where it's been historically. So just curious, as you think about kind of investments in personnel or additional production hires, do you see additional opportunities on the horizon? Or do you think 2027 is going to be more of a year of kind of just realizing some of the investments that you've made and just generating overall more positive operating leverage into 2027?

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. That's a great question as well. And we're always trying to balance the investment with the anticipated return. But when there's what you might call a high level of disruption, there's quite a bit of opportunity both to hire people and to add new customers. So we have added a number of experienced commercial bankers around the corporation in the last quarter, really outstanding talent from the super regional and national banks that we compete with. We hired our succession leadership person for our treasury management group, and we have a 1-year transition where both of those people are on the staff, lots of support people around the growth, including credit and risk management and the like.

So your assessment is correct. And we could slow down and reap more than if we continue to invest. But for the long haul, if the opportunities are there to add people that we think will really do a great job for us, we'll continue to invest. So it remains to be seen a little bit. We're very pleased with the level of success that we've had in adding talent to the bank. And when we're convinced of its long-term positive effect, we'll continue to do that.

Nathan Race

Okay. Great. And maybe one last one just for Chuck, just to maybe put a finer point around what we can kind of think about a range for expenses for next year. I appreciate the guide for $600,000 of costs coming out in 2Q of next year. But just overall, just given that there could still be some opportunistic hires, kind of any thoughts on just kind of overall expense growth into next year? Any particular guideposts that you could point us toward?

Charles Christmas

I guess my general thought is that budgeting for overhead cost is going to be difficult for next year. And to be honest, we're just in the initial stages of that, obviously, working through core and quarter end here. We'll get busy putting the budget together, obviously, give guidance in January for 2027. I'm hesitant to give too much out there. Obviously, we have merit increases and promotions and those types of things that will result in increased salary and benefit expense.

Obviously, we're a service company. That's our -- one of our biggest expenses on the income statement besides interest expense and federal income tax expense. Kind of echoing what Ray was saying is like we want to continue to be very opportunistic -- based on what we've seen so far, I would say, late last year into this year and what's going on in the markets, we certainly see an opportunity to be opportunistic. But obviously, it's all about the people and finding them and certainly would be happy to bring them on if it makes sense.

I would say from a real estate standpoint, we are making -- we have been making some investments in real estate and continue to do so, especially in Southeast Michigan as we build out that market. I would say the actual costs are going to be somewhat limited in 2027, maybe in the back half as whether we do some new construction or maybe buy an existing or lease an existing facility that needs some build-out, that's going to take a few quarters to get done. So you might see some investments on the balance sheet, but I don't think the expenses will be very much, if any, maybe in the fourth quarter of next year.

And then just kind of everything else that's in the cost of running a bank. But I think certainly, our biggest expense is the one that at this point is somewhat of an unknown, given some opportunities that may be presented between now and the end of next year. But definitely, we'll be happy to give guidance in January when we've completed our budget process and gone through that thoughtful considerations.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group.

Brendan Nosal

Can you hear me now?

Charles Christmas

Yes, we can.

Brendan Nosal

All right. Sorry about that. Apologies. Chuck, just to kind of circle back to maybe the balance of liquidity. I think you noted in your prep remarks that part of next quarter's margin expansion would come from holding less cash at the Fed. Can you just help us with kind of where you see the average cash balance coming in, in the fourth quarter versus this quarter's level of like $425 million?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I think we're hopeful to see that go down, quite frankly. And obviously, it will help the margin. I would say it's going to be a little bit lower than that based on what we see and our expectations going forward. But I would say it's probably going to be still in the upper $300s for the fourth quarter on an average basis, trending down during the quarter, but starting from a pretty high point.

Brendan Nosal

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe kind of digging into Southeast Michigan a little bit more. Could you just kind of give us more of like kind of a full play by play on where you started, where you are today and then what you're still hoping to accomplish down in that market in terms of personnel additions? And then just any thoughts on kind of timelines to get that group additive to the bottom line?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I appreciate that question. It's a very difficult thing to predict exactly when we'll be able to make talent acquisitions in the market. But we're very happy with the volume and the quality of the discussions that we have right now to add people to the team in addition to the ones that we've already added. We had a fairly small number of commercial people in the Southeast Michigan say, 2 years ago. And we've ramped that team up to a good half dozen commercial callers in that market now and expect that number to continue to increase over the next year, the pace of which is almost impossible to predict.

But again, we feel very good about the discussions that we have ongoing, the quality of those and the probability of success. But to quantify that is a nearly impossible task.

Brendan Nosal

Yes, that's fair, but it's still helpful to kind of hear where you started and where you are now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte with KBW.

Damon Del Monte

So first one, just on the outlook for noninterest income, obviously, a step down here from the third quarter. So just wondering if you could give a little bit more granularity on that. Is that kind of reflective of a more challenging mortgage banking backdrop? Or is it maybe more from like swap fee income? Or just any color on that would be great.

Charles Christmas

Well, I think you hit both items. But I think from a mortgage standpoint, I think it's more seasonal than anything else. We're actually very pleased with our mortgage group. If you look at our production in a very tough environment, it's actually been going up. And so incredible work by the entire team. And as we continue to gain -- we look at that as gaining market share, in again, a very tough environment. So I think that there is a decline in expected mortgage banking income, but I think it has more to -- I know it has -- as far as projections go, it has more to do just with the seasonality and the set on of snow starting to fall here relatively soon.

And I think we had a solid swap quarter in the third quarter. We would like to duplicate that. I'm not sure we're going to get there. I think as rates have popped up and the market has been pricing in additional rate cuts, it has certainly had a noticeable impact on 5, 7-year rates in the swap market. So it appears that our customers are a little more hesitant than they have been, say, typically in the past to get into the swaps. But if they want a fixed rate, it's obviously a product that we can offer them that will give them their desired fixed rate.

But again, that's one of those things that's also very difficult to predict not understanding what's going on in the marketplace, but just from timing as we're making commercial term loans and from quarter-to-quarter, there's some lumpiness in there. But it's -- you're spot on. It's those two items that are causing the expected reduction in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

Damon Del Monte

Got it. Okay. And then with regards to the 5% to 7% loan growth here in the fourth quarter, do you guys feel like the bulk of the payoff activity that you've been dealing with is kind of like peaked and is subsiding now? I guess do you have good visibility on that at this point in the quarter?

Raymond Reitsma

So this is Ray. To answer that question, I think you have to break down what some of those payoff components are. When there is a sale of a company or an asset, there is really nice visibility to that, and we can predict what's going to happen in a quarter fairly accurately. The one that is very difficult to predict is the paydowns that come from excess cash flow, and those have ramped up quite a bit in the quarter that we just completed. So if that continues to be true, that will be the toughest one to nail down.

We feel good about our backlog. You can see it's at a 5-quarter high. And so the level of originations we are very comfortable with. The asset sale, piece of it is, I would call, moderate compared to recent experience. So the variable that will be toughest to define and will surprise us the most between here and the end of the year is what happens with excess cash flow generation.

Damon Del Monte

Okay. That's great color. And then just one last quick one. Chuck, do you happen to have the spot margin for September 30?

Charles Christmas

The spot margin for September 30. I can give you what it was in September. How is that?

Damon Del Monte

Okay. Fair enough.

Charles Christmas

It was 3.74% -- but I would make the comment that it would have been higher as of September 30.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

Matthew Breese

I hear you loud and clear on some of the loan growth components. I guess my question is just given some of -- given the pipeline and payoff dynamics, if you think the projected level of loan growth in 4Q spills into 2027 and whether you expect deposit growth to continue to outpace loan growth near term?

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. I think those originations will come to rest at some point. So I guess the answer of will it spill? I would anticipate that it would. I think deposit growth should roughly parallel loan growth, and that would be the desired outcome.

Charles Christmas

Yes. The one caveat there is with the public unit deposits, which obviously is seasonal for all banks, we get some really solid inflows with tax collections here in Michigan in the third quarter, and we see some of the outflow already took place in September, but that will continue in October, November. But even excluding that, the deposit growth that we've had so far in 2026 is really strong growth in regards to business. And the pipeline on the deposit growth for businesses, to Ray's point is, I would say, in general, it is just as strong as the loan pipeline.

Matthew Breese

Yes. Okay. And then maybe just touch on securities. Securities portfolio yields are still pretty far off from current market rates. Can you help me out with near-term kind of cash flows on the securities portfolio and when we might see a more kind of significant shrinking of the gap between current yields and yields on the book?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I would say on an overall basis, our duration of our portfolio is about 4 years, and we stick and have always stick to a laddered maturity approach. Now there's a lot of calls in there. And we definitely have set up the securities portfolio over the last few years to protect us, excuse me, in a significant down rate environment of buying very discounted agency bonds, say, between $0.85 and $0.95 on the dollar that it would take probably 200 to 300 basis point rate reductions for those to start getting called, which would be a good insurance policy, at least for a limited time in regards to what we would see in interest income on our commercial loan portfolio.

So we feel really good about that. So that's the major interest rate risk tool that we do with our securities portfolio. I would say here in the fourth quarter and into of next year, we've got some really solid repricing opportunities, some solid dollars at low rates. And I think on Page 11 of the deck, we have that spelled out for you. We've got $16 million at an average rate of 1.5% here in the fourth quarter and then another $100 million at 2.5% average rate next year. And that's added on top of the fixed rate CRE loans that another almost $60 million this quarter and another almost $200 million next year with rates that are just under 5%.

So we've been getting that benefit, especially throughout this year, I would say even last year, but definitely throughout this year. Clearly, where rates are today, any bond that's going to be maturing and any loan that's going to be maturing is going to be refinanced or renewed at a higher rate. So there's going to continue to be some head or some tails -- tailwind there as long as rates stay where they are now. And we'll just see up from specifically to the investment question you had, we'll let the laddered maturity approach do what it's supposed to do and improve yields as we go forward.

Matthew Breese

Okay. Last one for me. If I look at -- If I look at the charge-off kind of patterns, the last couple of years have been really solid in the first 3 quarters of the year, but a little bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter. And I'm curious if there's any strategy or intention to that. A lot of banks will kind of kitchen sink or clean up stuff in the fourth quarter and whether or not that is expected to play out again this year?

Charles Christmas

No, that is total coincidence. I mean we work each credit. It seems like we have incredibly strong asset quality, obviously. But like all banks, you're always kind of chasing 1 or 2, I would say, larger-sized credits around on the commercial side. And it's just been total coincidence as far as when the charge-off has taken place. I think if you go back a quarter or 2 quarters or 3 quarters prior to the charge-off, you would have seen us establishing the specific reserve and then obviously going through the collection period.

And then when we get to the end of that collection period or towards the back half of the game, of the baseball game, we're going to take the charge once things become a little bit more finalized. So total coincidence that they've taken place in the fourth quarter.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] your next question comes from the line of Nicholas Holowko with Raymond James.

Nicholas Holowko

Maybe just one follow-up on the lending environment. Obviously, it sounds like you guys are seeing some pretty good growth in your pipeline, which should be encouraging for loan growth going forward. But maybe just in terms of the lay of the land, what you're hearing in terms of overall business confidence from your borrowers and their willingness to invest and expand at this point, especially given the recent rise in interest rates. If you could just give us an updated perspective on that, that would be great.

Raymond Reitsma

Sure. I don't think confidence has changed materially. There's been a bit of uncertainty in the environment that we've been talking about for a number of years. And I think that persists, but I wouldn't say that there's been a marked decrease in willingness to invest or a decrease in optimism about the future. So I think it's just more of the same.

Nicholas Holowko

Okay. Great. And then obviously, you just kind of touched on credit right before this. But just with the small pickup in nonperforming loans this quarter, anything to call out there? Obviously, they remain at relatively low levels overall. But if anything to call out there, that would be great.

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. I'd just underscore your observation that it's relatively low levels. And if we have any activity at all, it shows up as a change to a relatively low level. And so every once in a while, a few drops of rain fall from the sky, and that's what happened here. So -- we just continue to have similar experience where there's no systemic issues in the economy or our portfolio. Just from time to time, there's a management failure or a particular company becomes under a unique bit of stress that leads to those kinds of recognitions in our loan quality metrics.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference call over to Ray Reitsma for any closing remarks.

Raymond Reitsma

I'd just like to thank you for your participation in today's call and for your interest in Mercantile Bank Corporation. And this concludes the call. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.