Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP consolidates losses, XLM extends recovery

• XRP hovers around $1.055 on Thursday after falling over 5% so far this week.
• XLM extends mild recovery, trading around $0.148 following a 1.73% rebound the previous day.
• Weakening on-chain metrics cap recovery prospects for both tokens, while momentum indicators show stretched downside conditions.

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) show mild signs of recovery on Thursday, but bears continue to weigh on both cryptocurrencies. XRP trades near $1.055 while XLM holds modest gains around $0.148. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain activity caps both altcoins’ recovery prospects, despite improving price action.

Cautionary on-chain metrics

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a bearish outlook for both altcoins. XRP’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders but with sell-side dominance. In addition, the spot market shows heating conditions, highlighting an overall bearish, cautious sentiment bias among Ripple traders.

For XLM, spot and futures markets show sell-side dominance. Meanwhile, the spot market suggests large whale sell orders, with other metrics remaining neutral, highlighting a cautious-to-bearish outlook among XLM traders.

XRP technical outlook: Overstretched downside conditions

XRP trades at $1.055 on Thursday, extending a bearish near-term tone as it holds well beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.274, $1.293, and $1.354, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory near 24, hinting at stretched downside conditions. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting persistent but gradually easing selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier around $1.160, followed by the $1.300 region ahead of the EMA cluster starting at the 200-day EMA near $1.354; above there, higher resistances are located at $1.540 and $1.900.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the psychological $1.000 handle, and a sustained break below this floor would likely expose XRP to a deeper corrective phase despite the already oversold momentum backdrop.

XLM technical outlook: Weakening bearish trend

XLM price trades at $0.148 on Thursday, extending its retreat below the major EMAs and keeping a bearish near-term bias. The 50-day EMA at $0.173, the 100-day EMA at $0.179 and the 200-day EMA at $0.185 all sit overhead as a layered supply zone, suggesting rallies are likely to be capped while price remains under this cluster.

The RSI at 33 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure, while the MACD remains slightly negative, reinforcing the notion of a weakening trend rather than a confirmed reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier around $0.153, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.173, which converge into a more significant hurdle should buyers attempt a bounce. Above those, the 100-day EMA at $0.179, the 200-day EMA at $0.185, the former trendline break area near $0.208 and the higher horizontal cap at $0.234 outline successive recovery targets.

On the downside, the only nearby structural support is the horizontal level at $0.136, where a break would likely open the door to a deeper bearish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)