Apple is expected to ship 243 million iPhones in 2025, surpassing Samsung for the first time since 2011

Apple is about to end a 14-year losing streak to Samsung. In 2025, the iPhone maker is on track to ship 243 million units, while Samsung is expected to push out 235 million, according to Counterpoint Research.

That would give Apple a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market. Samsung would slide to 18.7%, the first time since 2011 that Apple leads in annual shipments.

The figures are based on shipments to retailers, not end-user sales, but they still show where things are headed. Apple hasn’t pulled this off in over a decade, and it’s doing it by riding a product cycle that landed at exactly the right time.

iPhone 17 demand drives early lead over Samsung

Apple’s new iPhone 17 series, released in September, had what Counterpoint called a “bumper” holiday sales window.

In the U.S., sales in the first four weeks of launch were up 12% compared to the same period for the iPhone 16, excluding the 16e. That includes sales of the iPhone Air, a lighter model in the new lineup.

In China, Apple’s biggest overseas market, sales of the iPhone 17 jumped 18% over its predecessor during the same stretch.

Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint, said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point.

Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

While Apple rides the momentum, Samsung is falling into a rough patch. Chinese smartphone brands are tightening their grip on the low and mid-range segment, a category Samsung has historically leaned on to maintain its volume.

That pressure is expected to eat into Samsung’s global share even further.

Used iPhones, trade truce, and Siri plans support long-term lead

The upside for Apple doesn’t stop with new sales. Between 2023 and Q2 2025, a total of 358 million second-hand iPhones will have been resold.

That’s a massive user base already inside the iOS ecosystem, many of whom are likely to upgrade to new models down the line. “These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint said.

Apple’s supply chain also got a boost from global politics. A trade truce between the United States and China lowered the threat of new tariffs, helping Apple push forward in emerging markets without facing extra costs.

The company also got some help from a weaker U.S. dollar, which boosted buying power abroad, and what analysts called a resilient economic outlook, especially in core regions.

“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” said Yang.

Looking ahead, Apple is planning to roll out the iPhone 17e in 2026, expanding into more affordable price ranges. A foldable iPhone is also in the pipeline.

Both moves are aimed at capturing demand in emerging markets and the lower premium category, which is growing faster than the overall smartphone market.

Counterpoint said, “By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing ‘e’ series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets.”

That’s not all. In 2027, Apple plans a full design overhaul of the iPhone.There are also improvements expected to Siri, as Apple works to strengthen its grip across devices in the iOS ecosystem.

Analysts believe that this steady flow of new devices, redesigns, and features will help Apple maintain dominance over its rivals through the rest of the decade.

“Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade,” Counterpoint said.

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