Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26 da Avista (AVA): Guidance Reafirmado, Plano de Capex de US$ 3,6 Bilhões

Principais destaques

• A Avista Corporation (NYSE: AVA) relatou um LPA diluído consolidado de US$ 0,57 no 3º trimestre de 2026, em comparação com US$ 0,36 no 3º trimestre de 2025. O LPA não GAAP do serviço público de energia foi de US$ 0,38 contra US$ 0,37.
• A administração reafirmou a projeção de LPA não GAAP do serviço público de energia para 2026 de US$ 2,52 a US$ 2,72 e espera resultados próximos ao ponto médio.
• A Avista Utilities prevê US$ 615 milhões em despesas de capital (CapEx) em 2026 e US$ 3,6 bilhões em investimentos de capital base de 2027 a 2031.
• A empresa pausou novas solicitações de grandes data centers que exijam investimentos significativos em geração ou transmissão por pelo menos 12 meses. Nenhum crescimento relacionado à computação está incluído no plano de capital atual.
• Outros projetos potenciais nos setores comercial, de manufatura e de mineração representam aproximadamente 85 MW de carga prospectiva no longo prazo.
• A administração continua a ter como meta um crescimento de lucros no longo prazo de 4% a 6% a partir do ponto médio de sua projeção de lucros para 2025 e um retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido (ROE) de longo prazo de aproximadamente 9% na Avista Utilities, excluindo os efeitos do Mecanismo de Recuperação de Energia (ERM).

Principais dados financeiros

A melhoria nos outros negócios da Avista refletiu uma recuperação nos valores de mercado após as perdas de avaliação em 2025. A ERock Inc., uma empresa mantida por um fundo da EIP, concluiu uma oferta pública inicial (IPO) em junho de 2026, e o aumento de valuation associado foi refletido nos resultados consolidados do terceiro trimestre.

Desempenho operacional e dos negócios

A Avista informou que os incêndios florestais no complexo de Spokane não tiveram impacto material em suas instalações. A empresa também declarou que os incêndios foram causados por ação humana e que suas instalações não estiveram envolvidas. Os trabalhos de reconstrução e religamento de clientes podem se estender por vários anos em alguns bairros afetados.

A empresa interrompeu o processamento de novas solicitações de grandes data centers que exigiriam investimentos significativos em geração ou transmissão. A administração espera que a pausa dure pelo menos 12 meses enquanto os reguladores estaduais e governos locais desenvolvem estruturas políticas e regulatórias.

A Avista declarou que futuros projetos de grandes data centers devem cobrir seus próprios custos, fornecer benefícios significativos de acessibilidade financeira aos clientes existentes e manter ou aumentar a confiabilidade. A empresa está considerando tarifas e outros mecanismos regulatórios ou de políticas públicas para reforçar a proteção ao consumidor.

Além dos data centers, a Avista está avaliando cargas prospectivas comerciais, industriais e de mineração que somam aproximadamente 85 MW no longo prazo. A administração afirmou que essas oportunidades podem ser adicionais ao crescimento orgânico normal.

A Avista também está avançando em projetos selecionados por meio de sua chamada pública (RFP) de fontes diversificadas. Espera-se que acordos de resposta à demanda forneçam até 35 MW em direção à meta de 40 MW de energia distribuída da empresa até 2030.

A minuta da estratégia preferencial para o Plano Integrado de Recursos (IRP) de 2027 inclui recursos adicionais para momentos de pico, pois as necessidades em dias de pico estão crescendo mais rápido do que as projeções anteriores. A Avista espera protocolar o plano no final de 2026 ou início de 2027, seguido por uma RFP de fontes diversificadas nos meses seguintes, se a minuta da estratégia for mantida.

Projeções da administração

A Avista reafirmou a projeção de LPA não GAAP do serviço público para 2026 de US$ 2,52 a US$ 2,72 e espera que os lucros fiquem próximos ao ponto médio. A projeção inclui um impacto negativo de US$ 0,09 por ação vindo do Mecanismo de Recuperação de Energia (ERM), reconhecido durante os primeiros nove meses de 2026.

A administração espera que o retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido (ROE) de longo prazo da Avista Utilities seja de aproximadamente 9%, excluindo os efeitos do ERM. Essa perspectiva incorpora cerca de 60 pontos-base de desfasagem regulatória estrutural e pressupõe que os custos de suprimento de energia sejam reajustados a um nível apropriado.

A empresa continua esperando um crescimento de lucros no longo prazo de 4% a 6% a partir do ponto médio de sua projeção de lucros para 2025.

A Avista Utilities prevê despesas de capital de US$ 615 milhões em 2026, dos quais US$ 496 milhões foram investidos até 30 de setembro. Os investimentos de capital base para 2027 a 2031 estão projetados em US$ 3,6 bilhões, incluindo projetos selecionados por meio da RFP de 2025 e previstos para 2028. O plano exclui o crescimento relacionado à computação.

A Avista emitiu US$ 58 milhões em ações ordinárias durante os primeiros nove meses e espera emitir até mais US$ 15 milhões em 2026, sujeito às condições de mercado. A empresa emitiu US$ 230 milhões em dívida de longo prazo em 2026 e não espera emissões adicionais de dívida de longo prazo este ano. Devido ao aumento dos diferimentos regulatórios e ao atraso na recuperação de custos, a administração planeja obter um empréstimo de curto prazo de até US$ 100 milhões no 4º trimestre.

Para 2027, a Avista espera emitir aproximadamente US$ 220 milhões em dívidas de longo prazo e até US$ 110 milhões em ações ordinárias.

Riscos e pontos de atenção

• O processo tarifário geral de Washington permanece pendente, com uma decisão da comissão esperada para meados de dezembro. As principais questões incluem o plano tarifário quadrienal proposto, o retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido, a recuperação de capital e os mecanismos de acompanhamento.
• As condições do mercado de suprimento de energia continuam difíceis de prever. Mesmo com a aprovação da metodologia de previsão proposta pela Avista, os resultados futuros do ERM podem variar.
• Diferimentos regulatórios e atrasos na recuperação de custos estão aumentando a necessidade de financiamento de curto prazo.
• A escala e o cronograma da demanda futura por data centers permanecem incertos durante a pausa nas solicitações.
• Oportunidades adicionais de capital dependem do avanço do planejamento de recursos, dos resultados de RFPs, dos projetos de clientes e dos investimentos em transmissão.

Destaques da sessão de perguntas e respostas com analistas

A administração disse que a aprovação de sua metodologia proposta para custos de suprimento de energia poderia eliminar em grande parte o impacto negativo atual de US$ 0,09 do ERM, embora os resultados reais ainda dependam das condições do mercado de energia e de outras variáveis.

Sobre o financiamento de investimentos adicionais de capital, a Avista indicou que a estrutura de financiamento provavelmente ficará próxima de 50% em dívida e 50% em capital próprio. Os recursos em caixa de outros investimentos podem reduzir a necessidade de emissão de ações.

Em relação ao projeto North Plains Connector, a administração agora espera progresso rumo a um acordo definitivo no primeiro semestre de 2027, em vez do final de 2026. O projeto global está estimado em aproximadamente US$ 6 bilhões, e a potencial participação acionária da Avista seria de cerca de 10%.

A administração afirmou que atingir o limite superior de sua faixa de crescimento de lucros no longo prazo, de 4% a 6%, provavelmente exigiria que investimentos adicionais se concretizassem. Isso poderia incluir projetos regionais de transmissão, cargas prospectivas comerciais e de mineração, recursos selecionados na próxima RFP relacionada ao IRP e o North Plains Connector.

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Avista Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note, this call may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Stacey Walters, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Stacey Wenz

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Avista's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings and third quarter Form 10-Q were released premarket this morning. You can find both documents in this presentation on our website. Joining me today are Avista Corp, President and CEO, Heather Rosentrater; and Senior Vice President, CFO, Treasurer and Chief Strategy Officer, Kevin Christie.

We will make forward-looking statements during this call. These involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change. Various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations we discuss in today's call. Please refer to our Form 10-K for 2025 and our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 for a full discussion of these risk factors. Both are available on our website. On this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP utility earnings. Our third quarter earnings presentation is posted on our website and includes definitions and reconciliations for non-GAAP disclosures.

Our non-GAAP utility earnings are comprised of results from our Avista Utilities and AEL&P segments. The investment gains and losses that have historically made up the majority of our nonregulated business earnings can be significant but they are difficult to predict and outside management's control. Non-GAAP utility earnings facilitate meaningful evaluation of our operating performance across periods and reflects management's core utility focus. We believe it is important to discuss these utility results in addition to our GAAP results.

Let's begin this morning with a recap of the financial results presented in today's press release. Our consolidated earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $2.11 per diluted share compared to $1.51 for the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our consolidated third quarter 2026 earnings were $0.57 per diluted share compared to $0.36 in the third quarter of 2025. Our non-GAAP utility earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $1.76 per diluted share, compared to $1.67 per diluted share in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our third quarter 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings were $0.38 per diluted share compared to $0.37 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Heather.

Heather Rosentrater

Thank you, Stacey. I first want to provide a follow-up to our second quarter earnings call where we discuss the devastating Spokane complex wildfires our communities experienced in August. Although it is clear that recovery will be a long road, I am happy to share that our community has experienced an incredible amount of support and that our community itself has shown up in a wide variety of ways to help those impacted. Our hearts continue to be with those who are starting that long road to recovery.

And with the third quarter now complete and with a welcome transition to fall, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made advancing the priorities that support reliable service for customers and sustainable long-term value. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, we continue to strengthen reliability and resilience, through grid hardening, wildfire preparedness and enhanced outage response capabilities. We also advanced resource planning and clean energy solutions, including progress on our 2027 Integrated Resource Plan. Through strong strategic execution and performance on Avista Utilities through the first 3 quarters of the year, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for the remainder of the year. Given that the Spokane complex wildfires were still active during our second quarter earnings call, we didn't have a full understanding of the overall impact to our facilities at that time. While the overall community impact has been devastating, ultimately, the impact of our facilities was not material. We also understand that each of these fires was human caused, and we are confident that our facilities were not involved.

As I mentioned, for the neighborhoods affected, recovery and rebuilding will be a lengthy process, and some of our own infrastructure can't be replaced until rebuilding begins. We anticipate that in some cases, customer rebuilding efforts could take multiple years, and we stand ready to reconnect customers when it's possible to do so. Throughout recovery, our focus will remain where it always is. Providing safe, reliable and affordable service to meet customers' needs when they arise. Affordability continues to be a top priority at Avista. Understanding the financial pressures our customers face is fundamental to developing effective strategies to provide assistance where it's needed most. With enhanced data, we have better insights to guide resource allocation as well as direct the programs we support and future investments across our service territory.

As we look ahead to a changing energy landscape, this focus on affordability better enables us to meet customers' needs today and prepare to serve them in the future. We appreciate that identifying ways to support customer affordability is a shared priority among our investors, our customers and ourselves. It is important to note that one of our key strategies to support customer affordability is responsible growth, and to support long-term responsible growth. After listening to customer and community feedback and to allow time for us to participate in a broader coordinated planning effort, we announced in September that we have paused processing new large data center applications that require significant new generation or transmission investments. This pause respects the moratorium in place in several local jurisdictions including the City of Spokane and Spokane County, and the proceeding at the Washington Commission.

We expect the pause to last at least 12 months of state regulators and local government's advanced policy and regulatory frameworks. This is not the withdrawal from potential growth opportunities. As I shared, it is one of our main strategies to support affordability. We remain engaged with regulators, policymakers, local jurisdictions and other stakeholders, even as we strengthen our own governance, customer qualification and planning processes to support informed investment decision making into the future. As we take the time to strengthen these areas, we remain committed to protecting existing customers and maintaining safe, reliable service. Even after the pause, we won't move forward with the new large data center customer unless we are confident they will cover their own costs. And in addition to covering their own costs, that they will make significant contributions to support affordability for our existing customers. And we won't move forward with the new large load customer unless we're confident that our customers' reliability will be maintained or enhanced.

Any future projects must meet regulatory and public interest requirements while supporting responsible growth that benefits our communities over the long run. In order to strengthen assurances related to these customer protection commitments, we are exploring regulatory mechanisms and other policy options that can provide existing customers with more confidence that they won't be burdened with costs associated with serving potential new large data centers. Although we have paused processing new large data center request that require significant new generation of transmission investments, we are fortunate to have other growth opportunities associated with customers evaluating expansion, representing commercial, manufacturing and mining sectors. Each of these opportunities has a different time line and taken together over the long term, prospective load associated with these opportunities would be approximately 85 megawatts.

We are grateful to be part of these activities that strengthen the local economy and existing customer affordability, and which could be additive to our normal organic growth. As we plan for the future, we remain focused on reliable, affordable energy that meets customer needs and supports our clean energy goals. We are moving forward with the projects selected to advance through our all-source request for proposal or RFP, including demand response agreements expected to provide up to 35 megawatts toward our 40-megawatt distributed energy goal by 2030, along with key renewable energy projects. Work began this year on our next Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP. We expect to file the 2027 IRP late this year or early next year. As our peak day resource needs continue to outpace earlier predictions, the draft preferred resource strategy includes additional peaking resources. We expect another RFP to occur soon after the filing of our 2027 IRP.

Together, this progress on our operational priorities and effective cost management reinforce our confidence. We remain focused on executing the priorities that support reliable and affordable service for customers, constructive long-term growth and sound financial performance. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for additional discussion of our financial results.

Kevin Christie

Thanks, Heather. We continue to execute well across our business through the third quarter with a focus on delivering results at the utility and managing our costs. Our utility earnings in 2026 reflects the benefits of our cost discipline and improved cost recovery. We remain on track as we move into the final quarter of the year. At our other businesses, net income was $29 million in the first 3 quarters of 2026, compared to a loss of $13 million in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Market values have recovered from the valuation losses experienced in 2025. In 2026 -- in June of 2026, one of the businesses in an EIP fund, ERock Inc., conducted an initial public offering.

Our third quarter consolidated results reflect the associated increase in valuation. Among our initiatives, regulatory outcomes are key to our progress. For our 2026 Washington general rate case, we appreciate the party's engagement and constructive hearings in September. Final briefs have been filed and we expect the commission to issue a decision in mid-December. As we look ahead, we anticipate filing our next general rate cases in Idaho in the first quarter of 2027. Our next filing in Oregon will take place under the state's new multiyear rate plan legislation and is slated for the fall in 2027. In accordance with Oregon Commission rules, we will file a 5-year rate plan. We continue to invest in our utility infrastructure to support customers. We expect capital expenditures at Avista Utilities of $615 million in 2026. Through September 30, we have invested $496 million in our capital projects this year.

For 2027 through 2031, we expect base capital expenditures of $3.6 billion. This includes the projects selected from our 2025 RFP expected in 2028. We continue to evaluate incremental capital investment opportunities that support serving our customers safely and reliability, including addressing the growing peak day resource needs Heather mentioned. Given the pause we have taken in both our existing MOU with the data center developer and in processing any large data center applications, we do not include any compute related growth in our capital plan at this time. Turning to liquidity. We issued $58 million of common stock in the first 3 quarters of the year. Subject to market conditions, we expect to issue up to $15 million of additional common stock in 2026. We issued $230 million of long-term debt in '26, and we do not expect further issuances of long-term debt this year.

Due to increased regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery, we plan to obtain a short-term loan of up to $100 million during the fourth quarter. In 2027, we expect to issue approximately $220 million of long-term debt and up to $110 million of common stock. We are affirming our non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for '26. We expect our earnings to be in line with the midpoint. Our guidance includes an expected negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism, or ERM of $0.09 in the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band, which we have recognized in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our expected long-term return on equity at Avista Utilities is approximately 9% excluding any impact from the ERM. This reflects expected structural lag of 0.6%. Over the long term, we continue to expect that our earnings will grow 4% to 6% and from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance.

Throughout 2026, we kept our focus on delivering results at the utility, and that focus won't shift as we look to the remainder of the fourth quarter and on into 2027. We remain committed to financial strength, making smart investments in our infrastructure that deliver long-term value to both the communities we serve as well as our shareholders. Now we'd be happy to answer your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo Securities.

Perguntas e respostas

Whitney Mutalemwa

This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar. So on the power cost, so staff was constructive on your new forecasting method and on updating the baseline every year, if the order adapts that, how much of that roughly $0.09 of power cost drag in this year's guidance should likely go away in '27?

Kevin Christie

Well, it's certainly difficult to predict what might happen in power supply markets as we look forward. And if we were able to see a commission order supporting our power supply costs as filed then we would see largely an elimination of that $0.09. Now again, there are a number of variables that could come into play as we look forward, but the intent would be to get the ERM back to closer to 0, certainly within the dead band.

Whitney Mutalemwa

Of course. And then just another one. So obviously, this update flags incremental capital for growing peak day resource needs with the RFP projects moving forward and the '27 resource plan underway. Could you just give us an overview of what we can expect and timing of that opportunity?

Kevin Christie

Are you asking particularly around the '27 IRP?

Whitney Mutalemwa

Yes.

Kevin Christie

So with the '27 IRP, it's important to note that it's in draft form at this point in time. We'd expect to file the final version towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. And then what would happen, and assuming that the current draft preferred resource plan moves forward into that final filed copy, we would then expect to need incremental resources on a peak day basis, and we would go out within the next few months after that with an RFP, all-source RFP to help bring on those peak day resources.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

Michael Lonegan

So you touched on the ERM, but just more broadly in the Washington rate case, you concluded post-hearing briefs. We're coming up on a final decision next month. I know there's some disagreement on the multiyear rate plan. Just wondering if broadly, you could touch upon some of the key debates and how you're feeling about them supporting your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes, thanks for the question. We have had, I would say, a very constructive process as we worked with the parties throughout the case. And I'm proud of what our [ team ] has done for putting forth a high-quality case, a case that supports what we need to support our customers overall. And certainly, there are issues. You highlight one of them, the back and forth there between the 4-year and perhaps a 2-year was a pretty significant one, but not surprising at all given that this is the first 4-year that's been filed under the multiyear legislation. And as we all know, when you move into something that's new and different, there are different perspectives that come forward.

And so we appreciate how the parties have looked at it and are a little uneasy about the 4-year nature of this case. We would point out years 3 and 4, although I don't want to diminish the importance from an affordability perspective, years 3 and 4 are relatively modest. And given the preponderance of evidence that we put forth, we think we've given the commission an opportunity to prove that for you. The other issues that come up are pretty normal things in our rate cases, ROE and there's a lot of attention on ROE right now. We have given, I think, through our expert witnesses and the need from a risk perspective, the commission an opportunity to approve what we put forth there and we'll see how that shakes out.

And the rest of it is generally around capital recovery. We've got a good track record in the past around what's called provisional capital, but that got a fair amount of attention. And then we had some tracking mechanisms either existing or a new tracking mechanism that had attention as well. So those were all discussed in the hearing, and we briefed on those. And then fortunately, in the next 6 weeks or so, we'll hear from the commission.

Michael Lonegan

And then you talked about potential incremental CapEx. Just wondering how we should think about the mix of debt and equity financing. I think in the past, you talked about 50-50. I know you're doing a little less equity this year than planned and you issued '27. Do you have an FFO to debt target over the course of your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes. We currently want to of course, stay at the rating that we're at with the rating agencies. And so we have, as we look to our forecast, the ability to support that comfortably. And so that isn't something barring, something unforeseen that we're tremendously worried about. When it comes to expected equity issuances on a go-forward basis, when we indicate that we have incremental capital expenditure opportunities, it's likely near 50-50. But I do want to highlight that with some of our other investments, as they might return proceeds back in the form of cash, that could lighten the equity needs that we have. And that's why we typically communicate an up-to number. for you so you can have something to model at what might be the high end.

Michael Lonegan

And then lastly for me, on the North Plains Connector project, I know it likely falls outside your 5-year plan. I think a number of months ago, you signed an MOU. Just wondering when you're expecting a definitive agreement there and then also the size of your CapEx opportunity on the potential 10% stake.

Kevin Christie

Yes, that one continues to move out a bit. I think we would -- we initially had hoped by the end of this year. I think it's likely first half of next year at this point in time as we work with all the partners. It's always a little bit more complex when you have as many potential owners as we have. But we're confident that we can find a way to move forward with everyone and then midyear give you an update, hopefully, on that. And the overall capital for the build-out would be about $6 billion, and we would be roughly 10%.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Rold with Bank of America.

Matthew David Rold

Question on the Washington rate case. Once the new rates are in, how close do you expect your authorized return in 2027? Is lag still meaningful? Or does this mostly close the gap?

Kevin Christie

Yes. As we've mentioned in the past, we would expect, once we have a constructive rate case outcome in Washington, we have the Idaho case and the Oregon cases filed, and we get on the proper cadence there, and we continue to manage our costs importantly that we would expect a long-term return on equity of 9%. And that -- what that builds in is roughly 60 basis points of structural lag. Those are the costs that we're unable to recover through rates for various reasons. So 9% is our run rate as we look forward. And it also -- that also assumes that we're at the midpoint from an ERM perspective, meaning within the dead band and we have reset power supply costs at an appropriate level.

Matthew David Rold

And with rate base growing a little over 7%, what would it take to get you guys to the top end of your 4% to 6% growth range? What are the biggest factors holding back today?

Kevin Christie

Well, I think what we're going to need to see is some of those or most of those incremental investment opportunities that Heather alluded to and that we've mentioned in the past. We do see transmission investment potential out there in our region, both within and without outside of our service territory. We have incremental customer growth that we're seeing, and we hope to bring that to fruition.

Important to point out that as Heather mentioned, if we were able to bring those on, it's a handful or more of , commercial and mining loads that taken in total, again, if we were able to bring them all on, would raise our average day load by almost 10%. So that's an important investment if we're able to bring those over the finish line. And then on top of that, we need to see how both the RFP coming out of the next IRP shakes out and then thinking about that North Plains connector that we mentioned already.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Hark with Mizuho.

Chris Hark

I just had a question on the data center pause in Washington. Just any protections that would be required? Just any color you could give us on that? And then how large is that data center opportunity sitting behind the pause?

Heather Rosentrater

So related to the pause. We have our commitments, but we recognize that our customers may be looking for something stronger than our verbal commitments. I mean, we have been very clear and consistent on those commitments that any -- we wouldn't move forward unless it would any data center would cover their own costs and provide meaningful additional support for existing customers from an affordability perspective.

And we are -- so to help with those assurances, we are exploring whether having some kind of tariff at the state level or just engaging in policy discussions at the state level as well as those could provide additional assurances for our customers. Related to the level of request, that will likely evolve a lot over the next 12 months. So I think it's probably -- it's challenging to say right now where that might land at the end of 12 months, but we'll look to update as we get closer to that -- to the end of that pause.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Stacey Walters for closing remarks.

Stacey Wenz

Thank you all for joining us and for your interest in Avista. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.