Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26 da Antero Midstream (AM): EBITDA e Crescimento de Gasodutos

Principais destaques

• A Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) relatou um EBITDA ajustado no 3º trimestre de 2026 de US$ 291 milhões, uma alta de 3% na comparação anual, apesar de restrições de fluxo de aproximadamente 10 Bcf.
• Os volumes de coleta e compressão aumentaram 19% e 17%, respectivamente, enquanto o investimento de capital somou US$ 51 milhões.
• O fluxo de caixa livre após dividendos atingiu US$ 449 milhões, incluindo US$ 377 milhões provenientes do litígio da Clearwater. A empresa utilizou o fluxo de caixa para reduzir a dívida em mais de US$ 400 milhões e acelerar a recompra de ações.
• A alavancagem caiu para 2,8x em 30 de setembro, abaixo da meta de 3,0x da AM e uma volta completa abaixo do seu pico no final de 2022.
• A diretoria espera que o EBITDA ajustado do 4º trimestre de 2026 atinja um recorde para a empresa e cresça a uma taxa de um dígito alto na comparação sequencial, impulsionado pelo fornecimento de água doce e por um crescimento modesto do fluxo, já descontadas as restrições esperadas.
• Para 2027, a diretoria projeta um crescimento de dois dígitos no EBITDA na comparação anual e mais de US$ 100 milhões em despesas de capital adicionais ao programa orgânico para o East Side Express e outros projetos regionais de demanda por gás.

Principais dados financeiros

Desempenho operacional e dos negócios

A Antero Midstream continuou expandindo sua infraestrutura integrada no folhelho de Marcellus por meio da aquisição da HG, de projetos orgânicos de coleta e água, e de sua nova unidade de negócios de gasodutos regionais.

Duas equipes de completação estavam operando em áreas dedicadas à AM, dando suporte a duas plataformas de poços perfurados, mas não completados (DUC). Tanto o sistema de água legado quanto o da HG alcançaram 100% de disponibilidade operacional durante o 3º trimestre. A empresa segue no caminho certo para concluir a integração do HG Water System até o final do ano e obter as sinergias de água previstas na aquisição.

A construção do East Side Express continuou. A diretoria afirmou que várias contrapartes do segmento downstream demonstraram interesse em acessar o gás natural da Antero Resources por meio do gasoduto. Espera-se que o projeto inclua cerca de sete interconexões com gasodutos de downstream.

A AM também está avaliando vários bilhões de dólares em potenciais projetos de infraestrutura, incluindo um gasoduto regional norte-sul, ramais para centros de demanda por gás natural e oportunidades integradas de energia. A diretoria afirmou que a empresa pretende usar sua infraestrutura para capturar uma fatia maior da cadeia de valor à medida que os contratos existentes com terceiros expirarem.

Desde o final de 2022, a AM integrou cinco aquisições que somam US$ 1,4 bilhão, investiu mais de US$ 1 bilhão em capital de crescimento orgânico, aumentou o fluxo em mais de 1 Bcf por dia e reduziu sua contagem de ações em mais de 6 milhões de papéis.

Projeções da diretoria

A diretoria espera que o EBITDA ajustado do 4º trimestre de 2026 estabeleça um recorde para a empresa e cresça a uma taxa de um dígito alto em relação ao 3º trimestre. A melhoria antecipada baseia-se em volumes mais altos de fornecimento de água doce e um crescimento modesto do fluxo após as restrições esperadas.

Para 2027, a diretoria prevê um crescimento de dois dígitos no EBITDA na comparação anual. Os principais fatores incluem um maior fluxo atrelado aos planos de produção da Antero Resources, duas equipes de completação operando durante todo o ano, entregas adicionais de água doce e a conclusão das duas plataformas de expansão em áreas legadas.

A empresa espera que os investimentos de capital em 2027 aumentem em mais de US$ 100 milhões acima de seu programa orgânico, destinados principalmente ao East Side Express e a outros projetos regionais de demanda por gás.

O East Side Express permanece com escopo estimado entre US$ 200 milhões e US$ 300 milhões, com previsão de conclusão para o final de 2028 ou 2029. A diretoria está avaliando o gasoduto norte-sul proposto e afirmou que uma decisão final de investimento pode ocorrer em 2027.

Riscos e pontos de atenção

O fluxo do 3º trimestre foi reduzido por aproximadamente 10 Bcf de restrições, e as perspectivas da diretoria para o 4º trimestre ainda pressupõem algumas restrições esperadas.

O East Side Express tem um cronograma de construção de vários anos, enquanto o gasoduto norte-sul permanece em fase de definição de escopo e ainda não atingiu uma decisão final de investimento.

O crescimento esperado do EBITDA em 2027 depende em parte do maior fluxo da Antero Resources, da atividade contínua de completação e do aumento nos volumes de fornecimento de água doce.

Destaques das perguntas e respostas dos analistas

O analista do Goldman Sachs, John Mackay, perguntou sobre o escopo, o custo e o cronograma dos projetos de gasodutos regionais da AM. A diretoria reiterou um escopo de US$ 200 milhões a US$ 300 milhões para o East Side Express, incluindo cerca de sete interconexões de downstream, com previsão para o final de 2028 ou 2029.

Sobre o potencial gasoduto norte-sul, a diretoria citou um forte interesse no mercado de Clarington. A empresa está realizando estudos de avaliação inicial e pode tomar uma decisão final de investimento em 2027.

Questionada sobre a ponte para o crescimento do EBITDA em 2027, a diretoria apontou para o aumento do fluxo, a conclusão de duas plataformas perfuradas, mas não completadas, e o aumento do fornecimento de água doce com a operação de duas equipes de completação ao longo do ano.

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Daniel Katzenberg

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide #3. Antero Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus Shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects and our new regional pipeline business unit.

Turning first to Water. Two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Antero Midstream, supporting 2 drilled, but uncompleted growth pads. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth net of expected curtailments are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

We also remain on track to complete the HG Water System Integration by year-end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition. Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration.

Looking ahead to 2027, these growth pads and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit. We continued construction on the East Side Express. Since announcing the project last quarter, we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparties seeking access to AR's natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia.

Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Antero Midstream now has the scale, balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first North-South directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers and integrated power opportunities.

As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers. This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and to serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Agnew

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights on Slide #4. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17%, respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth and flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved.

I'll conclude our prepared remarks on Slide #5, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years. As of September 30, our leverage was 2.8x, below our 3x target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year-end 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition.

Since then, we have integrated 5 acquisitions totaling $1.4 billion, invested over $1 billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over 1 Bcf a day and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step-up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to East Side Express and other regional gas demand projects.

Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set, Mike referenced in his comments, while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia.

With that, operator, we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

Perguntas e respostas

John Mackay

I appreciate the updates on East Side Express and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total CapEx. And then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting.

Justin Agnew

Yes, really no change to the scope of that project, call it, $200 million to $300 million. Again, that's going to be roughly 7 interconnects with downstream pipelines really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change in that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late '28, 2029 time frame.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. And then on the North-South, I don't know if you -- John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural and very opportunistic for us to build a North-South from our field up into that area.

John Mackay

And maybe just any time line on that?

Michael Kennedy

Yes, over the next couple of years. We're actually scoping it right now, having a little initial capital right now assessing it. But I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

John Mackay

All right. That's clear. And then second one for me. I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. You guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. I don't think the fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then '27 we will have 10% on that. You saw AR's guidance at 15 to 20 Bcf, but it's still at 4.3 Bcfe versus the 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, I believe it was for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number. So you have a little more on that on gross for AM. And then you have those 2 water projects, the completion of the DUCs on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput. And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run 2 completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing or final remarks.

Daniel Katzenberg

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.