Teleconferência de Resultados do 3º Trimestre de 2026 da Porch Group (PRCH): Guidance Elevado com Crescimento de Apólices Atingindo 42%

Principais Destaques

• As apólices emitidas pela recíproca aumentaram 42% em relação ao ano anterior, para 68.000, enquanto o prêmio emitido da recíproca (RWP) subiu 17%, alcançando US$ 161 milhões.
• O EBITDA ajustado excluindo a recíproca mais que dobrou, atingindo US$ 44 milhões, uma alta de 116% na comparação anual. O lucro líquido atribuível à Porch teve uma melhora de US$ 23 milhões, chegando a US$ 12 milhões.
• A receita do segmento de Serviços de Seguros cresceu 39%, atingindo US$ 103 milhões. O EBITDA ajustado subiu 98%, para US$ 50 milhões, representando uma margem de 49% e o sexto trimestre consecutivo em que o segmento cumpre a Regra dos 80.
• A Porch elevou suas projeções para o ano todo de 2026. O ponto médio para o EBITDA ajustado excluindo a recíproca aumentou para US$ 138 milhões, implicando um crescimento de 79% na comparação anual.
• A proposta de aquisição da Allied Trust deve contribuir com aproximadamente US$ 25 milhões em EBITDA ajustado para a Porch no primeiro ano completo após o fechamento do negócio. A administração espera que o investimento seja pago por meio da geração de caixa em até três anos.
• Assumindo um ano completo de contribuições da Allied, as metas iniciais da administração para a empresa combinada em 2027 incluem mais de US$ 900 milhões em RWP, mais de 360.000 apólices emitidas pela recíproca e mais de US$ 180 milhões em EBITDA ajustado excluindo a recíproca.

Principais Dados Financeiros

Desempenho Operacional e dos Negócios

O segmento de Serviços de Seguros permaneceu como o principal motor de crescimento e fluxo de caixa da Porch. O maior volume de apólices, RWP e a adição de novos clientes impulsionaram o crescimento das receitas baseadas em taxas, enquanto a estrutura de custos predominantemente fixa sustentou a alavancagem operacional.

O número de filiais de agências produtoras aumentou 114% em relação ao ano anterior, e o volume de cotações subiu 79%, marcando o oitavo trimestre consecutivo de alta. A taxa de conversão ficou praticamente estável em relação ao trimestre anterior, mas 53% superior na comparação anual. O RWP de novos clientes aumentou 178%.

A recíproca encerrou o trimestre com US$ 174 milhões em excedente estatutário, seu sexto aumento trimestral consecutivo. A administração informou que esse excedente sustenta um volume de prêmios próximo a US$ 1 bilhão. Incluindo ativos não admitidos, principalmente ações da Porch, a recíproca tem capacidade para suportar mais de US$ 2 bilhões em prêmios.

A receita de Software e Dados foi de US$ 22 milhões, com EBITDA ajustado de US$ 4 milhões. O recuo na receita refletiu a saída planejada de um produto de menor valor voltado para pequenos prestadores de serviços residenciais. O número de empresas atendidas caiu para aproximadamente 18.000, enquanto a receita média anualizada por empresa aumentou 17%, alcançando US$ 4.840.

O segmento de Serviços ao Consumidor gerou US$ 18 milhões em receita e US$ 3 milhões em EBITDA ajustado. Os serviços monetizados caíram 11% em meio ao enfraquecimento dos setores imobiliário e de mudanças, enquanto a receita média por serviço monetizado aumentou 6% por meio de estratégias de upselling e venda cruzada.

Aquisição da Allied Trust

A transação proposta envolve um valor total de aproximadamente US$ 200 milhões, ou US$ 140 milhões líquidos do excedente estatutário esperado da Allied.

A recíproca planeja pagar US$ 105 milhões pela seguradora, que deve deter cerca de US$ 60 milhões em excedente estatutário no fechamento da operação. A administração espera um valor líquido efetivo de cerca de US$ 45 milhões, financiado com uma pequena parcela das ações não admitidas da Porch detidas pela recíproca. Espera-se que a transação seja neutra em termos de excedente estatutário para a recíproca.

A Porch planeja pagar US$ 95 milhões pelas entidades de agência geral gestora (MGA) e resseguro cativo da Allied, sendo US$ 75 milhões em dinheiro e US$ 20 milhões em ações. A administração descreveu o preço de aquisição como inferior a 4 vezes o EBITDA ajustado de aproximadamente US$ 25 milhões esperado para ser gerado para a Porch no primeiro ano completo após o fechamento.

A administração planeja aplicar os dados imobiliários da Porch à subscrição, precificação e seleção de portfólio em um período de 12 a 24 meses. A Allied também agrega operações no Texas e na Louisiana, presença nas Carolinas, relacionamentos consolidados com agências e mais de uma década de dados de sinistros.

Projeções da Administração (Guidance)

A Porch elevou cada uma das principais projeções para o ano todo de 2026, impulsionada pelo desempenho de Serviços de Seguros:

A administração continua esperando um lucro líquido positivo atribuível à Porch para o ano todo.

Para 2027, assumindo um ano completo de contribuições da Allied, a administração apresentou uma estimativa inicial para a empresa combinada de mais de US$ 900 milhões em RWP, mais de 360.000 apólices emitidas pela recíproca e mais de US$ 180 milhões de EBITDA ajustado excluindo a recíproca. O guidance formal para 2027 está previsto para a próxima atualização trimestral.

A empresa também manteve seu objetivo de crescimento orgânico de prêmios de longo prazo acima de 20% e suas metas de médio prazo de US$ 3 bilhões em prêmios e US$ 660 milhões em EBITDA ajustado, sem especificar um cronograma.

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

• A administração descreveu o mercado de seguros residenciais como mais brando (softening), impulsionado por custos de resseguro mais baixos e pelo aumento da concorrência. O prêmio por novo cliente caiu 2% na comparação anual.
• O crescimento de 17% no RWP ficou abaixo do crescimento de 42% nas apólices porque os novos clientes representaram uma parcela maior das apólices e geralmente começam com níveis de prêmio mais baixos.
• A extensão do ajuste de apólices, reprecificação e integração após a transação com a Allied permanece sujeita a avaliação após o fechamento.
• O segmento de Serviços ao Consumidor e outras operações não ligadas a seguros continuam expostos à atividade dos setores imobiliário e de mudanças. A administração espera uma pressão sazonal normal no 4T em comparação ao 3T.
• O EBITDA ajustado do 4T também refletirá a reversão do favorecimento temporal de despesas em Serviços ao Consumidor e o investimento contínuo na infraestrutura de seguros, ciência de dados e sistemas de sinistros.
• A Porch espera considerar o refinanciamento de suas notas conversíveis com vencimento em 2028 antes do prazo. As ações emitidas como contraprestação pela Allied eventualmente passarão a compor o número total de ações.

Destaques da Sessão de Perguntas e Respostas com Analistas

A administração afirmou que a aquisição da Allied deve ser aditiva, em vez de restringir o crescimento orgânico. O capital existente da recíproca e a potencial conversão de ações não admitidas da Porch em excedente estatutário oferecem capacidade para a expansão contínua dos prêmios.

Sobre a dinâmica financeira dos Serviços de Seguros, a administração observou que a taxa de receita (take rate) variou entre 60% e 66% nos quatro trimestres anteriores e foi de 64% no 3T. Um mix maior de novos clientes pode sustentar o take rate por meio de taxas cobradas dos segurados, embora a empresa não forneça projeções detalhadas por segmento.

A administração espera que o crescimento de agências e cotações impulsione uma nova expansão nos prêmios sem exigir mudanças significativas na precificação ou na conversão. As tendências de outubro mostraram aceleração no crescimento de apólices e prêmios em direção ao 4T, mantendo a disciplina de subscrição.

A presença da Allied na Louisiana deve acelerar a entrada da empresa no mercado ao agregar dados históricos de sinistros, uma marca estabelecida e relacionamentos já existentes com agências. A administração também vê potencial para vendas cruzadas (cross-selling) entre as redes de agências da Porch e da Allied.

Em relação à alocação de capital, a administração apontou fusões e aquisições (M&A) como um uso potencial para o excesso de caixa. Foi mencionado que aquisições adicionais não são necessárias para atingir as metas de médio prazo da empresa, mas podem acelerar esse progresso.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good afternoon, and thank you for participating in Porch Group's Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Earlier today, we issued our earnings release and filed our related Form 8-K with SEC. The earnings release and today's presentation are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.porchgroup.com.

Before we begin, I'd like to review the company's safe harbor statement within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which provides important cautions regarding forward-looking statements.

Today's discussions, including responses to your questions, reflect management's views as of today, October 28, 2026. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these remarks. We will make forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the information on this slide and our SEC filings for additional detail.

We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release available at ir.porchgroup.com. A replay of this webcast will also be available after this call on our Investor Relations site.

So joining me here today are Matt Ehrlichman, Porch's CEO, Chairman and Founder; Shawn Tabak, Porch's CFO; and Matthew Neagle, Porch's COO.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt for his key updates.

Matt Ehrlichman

Thanks, John. Good afternoon, everyone. Q3 was another strong quarter for Porch, and we are proud of the team's execution. Reciprocal policies written grew 42% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal more than doubled and Insurance Services delivered its sixth consecutive Rule of 80 quarter, combining 39% revenue growth and 49% adjusted EBITDA margin. These results drove another healthy raise to our full year outlook.

So in my view, the key takeaway is that our organic growth system is working well. We have significant capacity at the reciprocal and expanding distribution funnel, rapid new customer growth and disciplined underwriting. As that volume moves through our largely fixed Porch cost structure, it generates higher earnings, strong cash flow and an improving financial profile.

Our performance allows us to complement organic growth selectively through M&A. We recently announced the pending acquisition of Allied Trust, a high-quality regional insurance company, which is expected to add scale, products, geographies, talent and more than a decade of claims data. I'll turn to Allied shortly, but first, let's review our strong third quarter results.

All right. A few highlights. Reciprocal written premium, or RWP, was $161 million, up 17% year-over-year. Reciprocal policies written of 68,000 grew 42% year-over-year, which accelerated from Q2's 38% growth rate. As a reminder, we generate some of our insurance services revenue based on premium and some based on the number of policies. RWP flows through to Insurance Services adjusted EBITDA at a 31% conversion rate, reflecting continued operating leverage in insurance services.

At the company-wide level, adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal was 28% of RWP. The strengthening earnings power is clear to see in the year-over-year comparison with adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal of $44 million, more than doubling from the prior year period. Taken together, the quarter provides another clear proof point that the model is working. The framework for scaling insurance services remains straightforward. The reciprocal statutory surplus provides capacity, agencies and quote volume creates opportunities. Conversion turns those opportunities into policies and premium. Our proprietary data and underwriting discipline help determine which risks we want to win and at what price, producing leading loss ratios and more margin in the system.

Let's look at total policy growth and then each component that builds to that result. You can see here in Q3, total reciprocal policies written across new and renewal grew 42% year-over-year to 68,000. The rate of growth accelerated from Q2, and we expect policy growth to remain strong in Q4. The expansion of the customer base is the purest indicator of our growth and momentum. Supporting continued growth begins with maintaining a strong capital position at the reciprocal, which we measure primarily through statutory surplus as well as non-admitted assets.

Since the launch of the reciprocal, statutory surplus has increased by almost $75 million, ending Q3 at $174 million. This is up $22 million from the prior year period and higher sequentially for the sixth consecutive quarter. The expanding surplus demonstrates the strength of the underlying underwriting results and provides substantial capacity to support disciplined premium growth.

Exiting this quarter, the reciprocal statutory surplus supports what is approaching $1 billion of premium. The reciprocal also holds non-admitted assets, primarily P shares, which we can turn into statutory surplus at our discretion or use an M&A to create substantial value. Including non-admitted assets, the reciprocal has the ability to support over $2 billion of premium.

With that capacity in place, the next component of the growth engine is expanding the distribution funnel. Our land-and-expand strategy continues to add new producing agencies and deepen production within existing relationships. In Q3, producing agency branch locations increased 114% year-over-year, while quote volume grew 79% and increased sequentially for the eighth consecutive quarter.

We see a considerable runway to add producing agencies, increase production within existing relationships and expand into additional geographies. Next, conversion rate, which was approximately flat versus Q2 and up 53% year-over-year. Conversion rate is one of the levers we use to manage the policy and premium growth needed to achieve our internal revenue and profit objectives.

In certain hard market cycles, there will be more premium and less policies and in soft markets, the inverse. Given the strength of our top of funnel, we are in a fantastic position. We can manage conversion, maintain exceptional loss ratios to maximize overall margin in the system and achieve our goals.

Conversion rates strengthened throughout October, supporting accelerating premium and policy growth in Q4 while maintaining the underwriting discipline and attractive earnings flow-through that are producing this year's substantial outperformance. Together, quotes and conversion produce RWP from new customers, which almost tripled year-over-year, increasing 178%. And we're doing this while producing exceptional underwriting results.

For the quarter, the receciprocal's overall gross loss ratio was 24% and attritional losses, which exclude catastrophic weather events, was 18% -- this excess margin in the system generates substantial cash flow, which can be used to supplement our organic growth with M&A. Speaking of which, a few weeks ago, we announced the proposed acquisition of Allied Trust, an established regional insurance company with meaningful operations in Texas and Louisiana and additional presence in the Carolinas. It's a strong strategic fit.

Following closing, we expect to leverage Porch's proprietary property data to identify and reduce exposures that do not meet our internal targeted returns, improve pricing across the retained book and focus future growth on the most attractive risks. We've constructed this deal to be efficient and accretive for Porch shareholders.

The approximately $200 million of aggregate consideration or $140 million net of Allied statutory surplus is separated between the reciprocal and Porch Group. The reciprocal is spending $105 million to acquire the insurance carrier, which is expected to have approximately $60 million of statutory surplus at closing, which immediately comes back.

Net of that acquired surplus, the reciprocal's effective purchase consideration is expected to be approximately $45 million, funded with a small amount of its non-admitted Porch shares. Overall, the deal is expected to be approximately statutory surplus neutral for the reciprocal.

Porch expects to spend $95 million to acquire Allied's managing general agency and captive reinsurance entities, $75 million in cash and $20 million in stock. For Porch, this represents an acquisition multiple of less than 4x EBITDA, given the approximately $25 million of adjusted EBITDA expected to accrue to Porch in the first full year following closing.

Allied, similar to other homeowners insurance companies, generates lower premium to earnings conversion than what Porch sees today. Following closing, we expect to improve those economics by applying our data and unique capabilities as we did with HOA previously. We expect those benefits to develop progressively over the 12 to 24 months following closing. And with this, we expect the cash earnings generated by Allied to repay Porch's investment within 3 years.

While we aren't providing 2027 guidance until next quarter for our standard rhythm, we wanted to provide some initial visibility into what the baseline looks like next year, assuming a full year of Allied contributions. Our internal combined company 2027 target includes more than $900 million of RWP, more than 360,000 reciprocal policies written and more than $180 million of adjusted EBITDA, excluding reciprocal.

Overall, we are making substantial progress toward the medium-term financial targets we established at our 2024 Investor Day of $3 billion of premium and $660 million of adjusted EBITDA.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Shawn to review our financial results and updated 2026 outlook.

Shawn Tabak

Thank you, Matt. It's an exciting time at Porch, strong results, confidence in our growth outlook and M&A execution underway. The Allied transaction also expands our premium and EBITDA scale, improves our 2027 cash flow profile and creates more attractive refinancing options, generating additional shareholder value.

Okay. Let's dig into Q3 financials, starting with a high-level summary. Our Insurance Services segment is the growth and cash flow engine for Porch and was the principal driver of our financial performance again in Q3. As Matt discussed, reciprocal policies written grew 42%, expanding the current customer base and the future renewal opportunity. RWP of $161 million and policies written of 68,000 drove adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal of $44 million, growth of 116% year-over-year.

And as it does, cash and investments for Porch shareholders increased in line with adjusted EBITDA. We also delivered a significant improvement in GAAP profitability. Net income attributable to Porch was $12 million, up $23 million over the prior year. These results demonstrate the operating leverage in the model. As policies and RWP scale, a meaningful portion of incremental insurance services revenue can flow through to adjusted EBITDA and cash for Porch shareholders.

Okay. Let's walk through the revenue and segment results supporting that profitability. First, with revenue. Total consolidated GAAP revenue was $144 million, up 13% year-over-year. Revenue for the Porch-ownned segments, excluding the reciprocal, was $141 million, up 22% year-over-year. Insurance Services was again the primary growth driver with segment revenue up 39% year-over-year to $103 million.

The Insurance Services growth and cash flow engine are the key drivers of our performance. So let's take a closer look at that segment. Insurance Services revenue of $103 million grew 39% year-over-year, driven by higher fee-based revenue with higher policies written, RWP volume and new customer additions. In the quarter, we saw 42% growth in policies written year-over-year, which was a 400 basis point acceleration from the Q2 growth rate.

Gross profit increased 46% year-over-year to $91 million. Gross margins in this segment are strong and predictable at 89% for Q3. Insurance Services adjusted EBITDA was $50 million, up 98% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 49%, driven primarily by strong fee-based revenue growth and operating leverage. And as a reminder, the majority of the management fee is recognized upfront with a portion deferred over 18 months.

As 2025 was the reciprocals first year, 2026 is when we first benefit from that deferred revenue and margin. Overall, the Insurance Services segment was better than Rule of 80 when adding the 39% revenue growth with the 49% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Let's now turn to our other businesses, which provide strategic advantages for insurance. Software and data revenue was $22 million. The year-over-year decline primarily reflects the previously announced exit from a lower-value product serving small home service contractors. Adjusted EBITDA was $4 million. Consumer Services revenue was $18 million with adjusted EBITDA of $3 million, benefiting modestly from the timing of certain operating expenses.

As insurance has scale, we are prioritizing these teams for their strategic impact, data, distribution and customer access over pure P&L performance. Overall, an easy way to think about our business, insurance services is the primary earnings engine. As the housing market recovers over time, Software and Data and Consumer Services earnings should largely offset corporate expenses, making Insurance Services adjusted EBITDA a close proxy for total company adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal.

Okay. Shifting now to the reciprocal. Statutory surplus remains very strong, $174 million at the end of Q3, up $22 million year-over-year. Our objective is profitable growth with strong underlying loss ratios at the reciprocal, supported by our data advantage. We are pleased with the underwriting performance in Q3. Gross loss ratio was 24%, while the attritional loss ratio was 18%, remaining in the teens for the eighth consecutive quarter.

As we shared when we announced the Allied acquisition, we also expect to establish an at-the-market or ATM program. This would allow the reciprocal to sell a portion of its existing Porch shares over time. Because these shares are largely non-admitted assets, selling them converts that value into statutory surplus, which then supports further premium growth capacity.

Shifting to the balance sheet. We present Porch and reciprocal liquidity separately so investors can clearly understand the capital available to each entity. Porch ended Q3 with $165 million in cash and investments, up $38 million versus Q2. The increase was driven by the adjusted EBITDA in the quarter of $44 million, partially offset by the final payoff of our 2026 notes of $8 million. Adjusted EBITDA to cash flow conversion continues to be very strong.

I am also pleased to share that our net leverage is now 2.4x our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, within our target range of 2 to 3x. This was a key goal we first outlined at our 2024 Investor Day that we have now delivered. Shifting to the reciprocal. Cash and investments was $333 million at the end of Q3. The combination of higher earnings, stronger cash generation and growing liquidity provides Porch with increasing financial flexibility as we look ahead.

Shifting to guidance. We are pleased to provide another annual guidance raise. Given our Q3 outperformance and expectations for the remainder of the year, we are raising the midpoint across each guidance measure driven by Insurance services. We're increasing guidance for Porch-wned segment's revenue, which excludes the reciprocal, to a range of $518 million to $523 million. The midpoint of $521 million represents a 24% year-over-year growth rate, up from the 22% growth implied in the prior guidance midpoint.

We are increasing guidance for gross profit, excluding the reciprocal to a range of $438 million to $443 million, now representing 28% growth at the midpoint, up from 23% growth at the prior midpoint. This now represents an 85% gross margin at the midpoint.

We are increasing our guidance for adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal to a range of $135 million to $140 million. The midpoint of $138 million represents 79% year-over-year growth, up from 59% growth at the prior midpoint. The increase in the guidance here is driven by insurance services based on Q3 performance and our expectations for a strong close to the year. For the full year, we continue to expect positive net income attributable to Porch.

Now I'll turn the call over to Matthew for an update on our strategic and operating priorities.

Matthew Neagle

Thank you, Shawn. I'll start with a few overarching business updates and then walk through the key KPIs across our segments. Starting with Insurance Services, we continue to broaden distribution and provide a strong agent experience with agent NPS now at 48. We're also modernizing certain core insurance infrastructure. Investments in policy administration, data science platform and claims systems are designed to improve speed and results. AI is enabling us to take on more ambitious projects faster.

Our software and data and consumer services businesses provide important strategic advantages that strengthen the insurance strategy. For example, we have now productized more than 100 home factors for use within our insurance operations. Together with our moving and warranty capabilities, these businesses provide valuable data, customer access and unique capabilities that strengthen insurance services and the reciprocal.

I'll now turn to our segment KPIs. Starting with insurance KPIs, the key operating story remains volume growth. For Q3, reciprocal policies written of approximately 68,000 Reciprocal written premium was $161 million and RWP per policy written was $2,384. RWP per policy remains lower year-over-year, primarily due to customer mix. New customers represented a significantly larger share of policies written and generally begin at lower premium levels than renewing customers.

Importantly, premium per new customer declined just 2% year-over-year. As these newer customer cohorts mature and move into renewal periods, we expect the mix comparison to become more balanced over time.

Moving to Software and Data and Consumer Services. The KPI trends are comparable to what we have seen in recent quarters. For software and data, the average number of companies served of approximately 18,000 was lower than the prior year period, driven largely by the previously mentioned planned sunset of a legacy product for small home service contractors, which resulted in the removal of roughly 4,000 companies. The positive offset from the focus on higher-value customers is evident in the annualized average revenue per company KPI, which grew 17% year-over-year to $4,840.

In Consumer Services, the number of monetized services declined 11% year-over-year, largely due to continued housing and moving softness. Average revenue per monetized service grew 6% year-over-year. The revenue per service improvement reflects continued upsell and cross-sell execution. I'll now pass it back to Matt to wrap us up.

Matt Ehrlichman

Thank you, Matthew. I want to wrap up briefly by reinforcing the most important messages from today. First, the organic growth system is working. The customer base continues to expand rapidly with reciprocal policies written up 42% year-over-year. Insurance Services delivered its sixth consecutive Rule of 80 quarter. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, and we generated strong cash flow.

Second, both Porch and the Reciprocal are operating from positions of strength. At Porch, rising earnings and strong cash conversion increased liquidity and reduced net leverage to 2.4x on the lower end of the target range established at our last Investor Day. Separately, the Reciprocal has far more capital than it needs and an exceptional 18% attritional loss ratio in the quarter.

Third, the proposed acquisition of Allied Trust represents an exciting step forward. It creates additional opportunities to apply Fortune's strategic advantages to create more margin and growth as we look to the future. As I said, assuming a full year of Allied contributions, our initial 2027 combined company target includes more than $900 million of RWP, more than 360,000 policies written and more than $180 million of adjusted EBITDA, excluding the reciprocal.

And it's kind of fun. Just looking back, it was just 2024 when we did $7 million of adjusted EBITDA, 2025 when we did $77 million, and now we've raised guidance for 2026 from $102 million at the start of the year to now $138 million. So this 2027 baseline will represent significant progress toward our medium-term target of $660 million of adjusted EBITDA with substantial opportunity still ahead thereafter.

We're proud of the team's execution of the company we're building and remain focused on creating long-term shareholder value.

With that, John, please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Daniel Kurnos with StoneX Financial Inc.

Perguntas e respostas

Daniel Kurnos

Another phenomenal quarter. I guess, Matt, I'm sure you're going to get a bunch of questions on Allied. So I'll ask kind of the 2 sort of primary ones, which are, one, just as you look at their book, obviously, having an A rating, Demotech is excellent. So just as you think about having to reevaluate their book, I assume you're not anticipating a ton of churn on policies. And two, you kind of outlined this in your prepared remarks, but their conversion ratios are lower than yours. Are there any -- and you -- I think I can still do math this early in earnings season, but 3 years on $25 million implies higher EBITDA for them over time. So just how much room is there? And sort of how should we think about them getting to your ratios over time?

Matt Ehrlichman

Yes. Thanks, Dan. Good to get those questions. So maybe I'll take the second one first. I think everyone in the industry has lower premium to EBITDA conversion ratios than us. So just I suppose set expectations, like I think any company in the category that we would acquire, I would expect to have lower conversion ratios. That's part of what we built, the uniqueness of what we've built. And so we are excited about being able to apply our data. As I mentioned, I expect 12 to 24 months to be able to apply the data, prune the policies that aren't the right fit, be able to make the right adjustments to pricing, but we would expect it to be able to move toward what we've shown we can do at HOA in terms of the conversion rate of premium to revenue and premium to EBITDA. So that would be our initial expectations.

In terms of the first question, I made comments previously that as we look at different M&A opportunities, the bar would be very high, and we've been looking at things that truly would be exceptional fits. We think this is -- this certainly falls into that category. To your point, Allied is a rated exceptional. It is a strong company, a well-run company. We think the people there are going to be great fits into our team. And we're going to simply be able to help with the unique data and capabilities that Porch has to just help it grow faster and more profitably as we look ahead. But it's a strong company.

In terms of how much of the policies we would nonrenew or prone, that's TBD. I mean, we obviously have to go and get the deal closed, and then we can start to do that evaluation. So TBD, but it is a strong company, to your point.

Daniel Kurnos

And then maybe just, I guess, more theoretically, Matt, as you look forward here, so you've done the deal, you got to digest it. The market, I think, Matthew, you said you're down 2% on a like-for-like basis. It's really just been mix to new customers that's been driving price down. You've talked about getting a little more aggressive to get the policies that you want. So just how do you think about remaining aggressive knowing that you have this acquisition coming in and knowing that you can now fund the surplus more with the ATM?

Matt Ehrlichman

Yes, it really doesn't -- having this acquisition come in doesn't really impact what we're doing or what we're managing to this year or even ahead from an organic perspective. We expect to continue to grow our business very effectively, both in terms of premium and in terms of policies. I mentioned we expect premium and policies both to accelerate nicely here in the fourth quarter, and we think it's set up for continued strong performance in 2027.

So I'm not sure if it really impacts us in terms of what we would have done anyway. One of the points that I made is that we have lots of capacity at the reciprocal. There's plenty of capital for us to be able to grow at a really nice clip like we've talked about in the past. So this really is just additive to what we would have done anyway.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer & Co.

Jason Helfstein

So I guess maybe first high level about the industry. I mean, to the extent that if the pricing dynamic in the industry stays where it is into next year, I guess, look, you've kind of given us the gross written premium outlook for next year. But just how could that change if the pricing dynamic kind of doesn't change, I guess, just maybe opine there.

And then on take rate, Shawn, you've obviously come in meaningfully better, I think, the last few quarters than the implied guide. We can obviously see with the implied guide for the fourth quarter. But I guess, how should we think about like take rate for next year prior to the acquisition impact? Kind of just give us some help there because I think most people are modeling it a little bit weaker next year, but you're just coming in better.

Matt Ehrlichman

Why don't you take that one, Shawn, and I can loop in behind with the first question.

Shawn Tabak

Yes. Overall, with guidance, I would just say sort of focusing closing out this year, we're really pleased with what we're seeing. Matt mentioned, we started the year with $102 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, and we've raised guidance every quarter this year. And so we're seeing great momentum here, also accelerating growth as we're closing out the year. And so we are pleased today to update our guidance again to $138 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint.

With respect to the take rate, we don't guide at the segment level. But if I do look back over the last 4 quarters, that take rate has ranged from 60% to 66%. This quarter, it came in at 64%. So kind of toward the middle of that range. And then with respect to next year and going forward, we'll provide an update with our normal cadence in February for guidance for next year. But for now, I'd just point folks to kind of the trailing 4-quarter trend.

Matt Ehrlichman

In terms of the first question, one great thing that we have certainly that provides tailwinds is very significant agency and quote growth. And so we can continue to grow premium just because there's more opportunities without having to make meaningful changes in terms of pricing and conversion rates. And again, Matthew noted, price per new customer was down only 2% year-over-year this quarter. So that, we think, is a great data point in terms of kind of how comparable that really is.

Now obviously, the market did soften this last year, and we managed to where the market is. I would just make the point that we're able to manage to our growth goals and our financial results while being very disciplined in terms of our underwriting. And you can see that in the attritional loss ratios, in particular, that still are just exceptional. So we would expect to continue that going forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kreyer with Craig-Hallum.

Jason Kreyer

Great results, guys. I wanted to focus on the 100-plus percent growth in agency locations and 80% growth in quote requests. So just what is it that drives that? Like what is it that makes more carriers and more agencies want to sign on and work with Porch? And then maybe, how do you think about that after the acquisition? Do you think that opens up even greater opportunities in terms of branch locations and quotes?

Matthew Neagle

I can take that. It is a lot of blocking and tackling. There's not a magic solution to it. We just go talk to agencies. And I think we've shared this previously, but there's still a lot of room for us to grow agencies. We still only have a subset of the total agency population. What I will say is we've gotten very good at talking about why we are special and why we're differentiated and agents want to work with carriers who are differentiated, and we treat them well and we have great tools. And so those are the things that they care about, a good product, good tools and to be treated well.

In terms of Allied, there are certainly some synergies there. They open up distribution for us in Louisiana. So it's a whole new state where we can go and build our growth engine. We haven't done a full analysis yet, but we believe there are going to be agencies where we can coordinate and cross-sell. So agency that they have that we don't have, agencies that we have that they don't have. And so that's going to help both of the companies to grow more quickly.

Jason Kreyer

And then just a follow-up on the Allied Trust acquisition. So you called this out as being surplus neutral. Surplus ended at $174 million in the quarter. If we take that 5x ratio to that, that gets you to kind of the $900 million that you called out for 2027. Just maybe help us understand your comfort with that capacity or what objectives you have in place over the next year to help create incremental capacity to maintain the current growth trajectory?

Shawn Tabak

Yes. We're set up really well from a capacity perspective. And to your point, Jason, the statutory surplus at the end of Q3 here was $174 million. The year is not over yet. So we expect that to continue to go up, especially with Q4 here being especially the low seasonal claims period for the Reciprocal. So -- and one other note just for folks as a reminder, it's actually -- I think we said it is better than 5:1. And so we're set up really well from a capacity perspective.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Randy Binner with Texas Capital Securities.

Randy Binner

It was really helpful to hear about Allied. I guess I've been trying to ask this question maybe a little more directly than the previous analysts, just on the pricing expectation with the guide of accretion from Allied because -- and maybe it's more a question of how pricing is expected to be in Louisiana in their book. But it seems like if you add that number of policies, if you get to 360,000 that the kind of the -- your rate should would stabilize, if I'm running the numbers correctly. So I guess, am I running that correctly?

Are you expecting to see kind of better rate activity in the book? And just more broadly, as you diversify away from Texas, how is pricing in your kind of your core business and then what you expect to add with Allied?

Matthew Neagle

I can take that. You get some later on. The first thing I would kind of refer back to is it is a softening market. But when you look like-for-like for new customers, we're down just 2%. So we are being selective and strategic in how we respond to the softening market. Now we are -- we do have a strong growth engine. And what's great about that is the -- the premium will compound on itself. And so right now, the level of growth that we have is relatively larger compared to our renewal book. And so you're seeing the softening in the overall price.

But as we build up that renewal book, there'll be less of that, and we'll see it balance out over time. The other dynamic is in the industry, the price per policy tends to be lower for newer customers. And then as they stay with you, the discounts unwind, the age of the home increases. And so you naturally see premium per policy increase over time with your book.

Matt Ehrlichman

But related to your question, you can do the math better than $900 million of premium and better than 368,000 policies. And so to your point, that's pretty straightforward math in terms of what the average premium is going to be per customer. Let me just make one quick comment on this topic generally, which is what I'm excited about, and we'll just continue to prove as certainly what we proved with HOA, and we'll do it again here, is it's not that difficult to grow policies quickly, but not be very profitable.

And similarly, it's not that difficult to not grow policies, but to be profitable. And what we've been able to do uniquely is to be able to grow very rapidly at very exceptional margins. And really, it's just a very small set of customers, generally speaking, if you were perfect at predicting risk, A very small set are going to file a claim each year. And so if you can have unique advantages to be able to identify who those people are and either make sure they're priced correctly at a meaningfully higher price or just not carrying that risk. But you can transform the margins of the business, you can actually have the price be a little bit lower for the really good risk customers, especially those new customers, and you can then grow while maintaining or even improving margins. And so for us, that's what the system does. And so we're excited to be able to demonstrate that again here.

Randy Binner

Okay. That's super helpful to kind of understand how the business is running versus maybe the way it's running through our spreadsheet. And I also had a question on Allied, just in regard to the potential share issuance that would finance it. there's a deferred consideration piece for the Reciprocal acquisition. And then there's -- which is $50 million, which could include Proch shares owned by the Reciprocal. And then for the MGA piece, I believe it's just -- it's plainly stated that as $20 million in Porch shares. So like those shares, I think, would all be unregistered. I think we'll probably assume the $20 million in our forward numbers, but maybe a little more color on the piece that's the deferred consideration and how we might think about how those shares would work their way into the share count.

Matt Ehrlichman

Do you want to take, Shawn, or shall I.

Shawn Tabak

Yes, I was just going to say, yes, they are being issued to the counterparty as part of the consideration. So ultimately, eventually will be included in the share count.

Matt Ehrlichman

Yes. Just to make sure it's clear, Randy, $20 million of Porch stock that's paid by Porch upfront. Those are shares that we would issue. The Reciprocal right now is 16 million shares. We'll use a very small set of those shares for that deferred purchase price.

Randy Binner

So just -- so the deferred consideration will be in Porch shares?

Matt Ehrlichman

We have the option, but I think that's reasonable to assume that.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW.

Ryan Tomasello

The 42% growth in policies written, obviously, really solid. Nice to see the sequential acceleration on that as well. The gap between growth in written premium dollars versus policies continues to widen over the last few quarters. How should we think about that gap persisting? And with RWP dollar growth running into the high teens, can you just help us understand if there's anything changed around how you're thinking about the organic RWP CAGR targets that you originally set out, I think you had talked about 20-plus percent. It sounds like you're expecting an acceleration in the fourth quarter. But just how are you thinking about the gap between those 2 growth drivers here over the next year?

Matt Ehrlichman

Sure. Yes. I mean, generally, in terms of what we talked about in terms of premium for the year, yes, we continue to be on track towards the objective. New business is performing well, like we mentioned. And to your point out, we are seeing a really nice acceleration in RWP and policy growth in October and expect as such for Q4. One reminder on that, Ryan, it was Q4 of 2025 when we really started increasing new business sales. And those policies are now renewing and lapping here. And so that does provide tailwinds certainly in terms of both policy and premium growth.

A reminder, this is probably good for everybody, but just how we run the business. We manage to our financial results. And our results are driven by both premium and policy count. And so we're just managing premium policies to hit our internal goals in certain markets. Again, it might be, like I said, higher premium or less policies. So if we were to have less premium, it would just mean because we'd have more policies coming through because, again, we're just managing the balance of those 2 to get to our objectives. I don't know, Shawn, if there's anything else you would want to layer on there?

Shawn Tabak

No, I think that's -- I mean, longer term, we've talked about organic growth of 20-plus percent premium growth. I think you asked about that, and that's still the same. No changes there.

Ryan Tomasello

Great. And then I know you already mentioned a few things around the take rate dynamics. But just entertaining another question there, I would assume, given these policyholder fees that, that is accretive to the take rate when you are seeing accelerating growth and an accelerating contribution from new customers. So -- and let me know if that logic is off. But as the book continues to roll here and more premium comes from renewals, how should we think about the impact of the take rate if that inevitably comes down as the premium in force continues to scale and renewals are driving a greater portion of growth?

Shawn Tabak

Yes. Yes. I mean, look, I think as I was mentioning, we're really pleased with insurance services and the conversion that we're seeing to EBITDA there has been really strong from the RWP. And with respect to the take rate itself, mind you, we don't guide to segment level. But as I mentioned, over the last year or so, it's ranged from 60% to that mid-60s range. And then when we come back in February, when we do Q4 earnings, we'll give our guidance for next year at that time. But for now, I guess I would just look, again, point back to that 60% to mid-60s range.

Ryan Tomasello

I appreciate that. But just not looking for guidance here, but just in terms of the logic, all else equal, is what I laid out makes sense in terms of the relationship on the mix -- higher mix of new customers being a driver?

Shawn Tabak

Yes.

Matt Ehrlichman

Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Timo Agostino with B. Riley Securities.

Timothy D'Agostino

Just given the Allied acquisition and that Louisiana is a new state, because Allied has already underwritten in that state, can you like -- can you be a little bit more aggressive in the policy growth in Louisiana? I guess trying to think about when you enter a state more organically like Michigan versus when you enter a state like Louisiana through an acquisition, does that allow you to be more aggressive in policy growth?

Matthew Neagle

Yes. One of the benefits of entering states through acquisition is you acquire a lot of know-how and data. A lot of what drives effective pricing is building models based off of historical claims and then combining it with the data that we have, which we are national in terms of our home factors data. You have built-in relationships with agencies, you have customer brand. We have certain strategies that we have built for our growth engine that we can apply directly to the Allied distribution network. And so certainly, it is an accelerant and a meaningful one to enter a state via an acquisition with an established brand distribution network and set of claims data.

Timothy D'Agostino

Okay. Great. And if I can ask a second question here. Just on the 2026 updated guidance at the adjusted EBITDA level. I think at the midpoint, it implies around $34 million of adjusted EBITDA in 4Q. Is that step down quarter-over-quarter mostly seasonal? Are there any onetime items you might want to flag there? And then also just thinking into 2027 with the closing of the Allied acquisition, if that seasonality is being shown in this guidance for fourth quarter, would you expect to potentially outgrow that seasonality again in '27 as Allied rolls into Porch?

Shawn Tabak

Yes. So overall, there is some additional factors to consider there. And again, we don't guide at the segment level, but I did mention today in the prepared remarks that Consumer Services benefited from some expense timing in Q3. And so you have some of that going the other way in Q4. There is seasonality, especially in the noninsurance businesses. All -- most of the revenue there and EBITDA, therefore, is tied to home transactions, which are at a seasonal lower point in Q4 relative to Q3. And so we would expect a typical decline there.

And then also just we mentioned today on the call that some of our noninsurance businesses have seen declines in revenue at least year-over-year because we've shut down some of those businesses. And then I guess the last point that I would make, we are continuing to invest. Matthew talked about some of the items on the call that we're continuing to invest in to accelerate growth. So I think all of those are probably relevant.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Oscar Nieves with Stephens Inc.

Oscar Nieves Santana

My first one is you've talked about a soft insurance market. So I just wanted to touch on that and what's behind it? Is it mostly competition? Or is it reinsurance cost and capacity? And related to that, how long do you think that lasts? And what does that mean for your growth margins and the receivables reinsurance and surplus?

Matt Ehrlichman

Yes. So it's tied to both the reinsurance market and competition. The reinsurance prices come down, generally, there's just less cost that carriers have. And then therefore, they're able to lower the price sequentially for new customers. And so those, I would say, are linked and certainly a factor. We were able to experience a meaningful decline in our reinsurance costs because we were able to include our data. So our savings on reinsurance is actually more than what the market experienced, but still that applies and that then creates a softening market, you would call it.

This is where it's a huge advantage to have just more margin in the system like we do, where you can really then just manage our results to the outcomes that we want. So you saw certainly throughout this year that we're able to still manage to our targets and our results despite changes in the market. And so when there is time when there is bad weather or reinsurance prices go up, for us, it's going to be -- we're going to be a real standout performer in those market cycles because we don't have that weather volatility on our P&L. And so our results would be exactly the same regardless of what happened in terms of weather or reinsurance pricing. But again, that's part of the beauty of how the system was designed.

Oscar Nieves Santana

My next one is on capital structure. Looking out the next year or 2, how are you thinking about capital structure? And I'm thinking about the 2028 converts, the surplus notes, and you talked about leverage earlier. And also, what are the priorities you guys have for cash -- for the cash that the business is generating and you guys expect to continue to generate?

Shawn Tabak

Yes, I can take that one. So I think as we talked about today, we've done, I think, a pretty good job getting our leverage within the target range and actually toward the lower end of our target range there. As we look ahead to next year, we'll look at refinancing the converts ahead of, obviously, when they're coming due. And so we think we're set up really well. Obviously, today, we talked -- we updated our guidance again. So this year, it's $138 million at the midpoint. And then on top of that, you also add in pro forma the $25 million of additional contribution from Allied, which will come next year. So we think we're set up really well there.

The company is moving in a great spot. And then on the surplus notes with the Reciprocal, no changes expected there. We really like the setup, the way things are working, and it's working really well.

Matt Ehrlichman

You also just asked about cash. And the business is, to your point, I suppose, generating a lot of cash. And we think there's going to be very attractive places for us to be able to deploy that excess cash. Obviously, we announced the Allied acquisition here just recently. But M&A is one of those places that we do think we could deploy cash in a very attractive way for shareholders.

Oscar Nieves Santana

And the last one I have is related to Allied. You mentioned how that deal gets you closer to your medium-term targets, that's the $3 billion of premium and the $660 million of adjusted EBITDA. So what's the time frame that you have in mind now? And what are the biggest swing factors in getting there versus before you have those -- you had Allied in the picture?

Matt Ehrlichman

Well, I'm not going to say a specific time line, but we certainly have a good sense for what that's going to be. And I'm sure when we did the Investor Day back in 2024, in fact, I remember conversations with people about how we were going to be able to get there. And I know that they're realizing now that it's going to be a lot faster than they had expected at that point in time. But clearly, we've made great progress, again, from $7 million in EBITDA to $180 million just in a few years.

And so we're not commenting on specific time frames. For us, it's just about continued execution. We don't certainly need other acquisitions to be able to go and get there. It's just when there's an opportunity like Allied or anything else in the future, that certainly can just accelerate the pace.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Matt VanVliet with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Mason Marion

This is Mason Marion on for Matt. So does the Allied deal and other potential future deals change your thoughts around selling home factor data to other insurers?

Matt Ehrlichman

I mean not -- it's a good question. No. The -- certainly, our insurance business is growing fast. And to your point, not only organically, but M&A is going to grow very, very fast, and we expect that to continue here as we look ahead. We obviously want to be able to give our insurance business unique advantages. And so we certainly are limiting what type of data we would make available to anyone else in terms of geographies and ensuring that it's not competitive. So that's certainly something that we're thinking about. We'll continue to be thinking about, but no changes here today.

Operator

And that is all the time we have for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Matt Ehrlichman for closing remarks.

Matt Ehrlichman

I'll just say I really appreciate the time. Certainly appreciate the continued execution and support from our employees and partners and customers and shareholders. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, just the journey over the last few years. We are excited about where we are. We're really excited about how we're entering this next phase of growth and margin and doing so from a true position of strength. Getting the business progressed to where it is from a balance sheet perspective, from a margin and earnings perspective, just gives us lots of tools now and lots of flexibility to make great choices so we can continue to deliver meaningful shareholder value.

With that, I appreciate it. Have a great rest of the day. See you soon.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the meeting. You may now disconnect.