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Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26 da Butterfield (NTB): NIM Melhora, Acordo com o CIBC Caribbean Segue no Rumo Certo

TradingKey28 de out de 2026 às 21:53
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No terceiro trimestre de 2026, o Butterfield registrou lucro líquido de US$ 61,0 milhões, com receita líquida de juros de US$ 97,2 milhões e margem financeira de 2,76%. A saída prevista de US$ 500 milhões em depósitos reduzirá o balanço para a faixa de US$ 12,0 bilhões a US$ 12,5 bilhões. Os empréstimos inadimplentes subiram para 2,7%, sem expectativa de perdas de crédito. A aquisição do CIBC Caribbean segue no prazo para o primeiro semestre de 2027. A administração projeta despesas ajustadas trimestrais entre US$ 93 milhões e US$ 95 milhões e mantém visão positiva de médio prazo com base em taxas mais altas.

Resumo gerado por IA

Destaques Principais

  • O Butterfield registrou lucro líquido no terceiro trimestre de 2026 de US$ 61,0 milhões, ou US$ 1,50 por ação. O lucro líquido ajustado foi de US$ 64,2 milhões, ou US$ 1,58 por ação.
  • A receita de juros líquida subiu para US$ 97,2 milhões, uma alta de US$ 1,6 milhão na comparação trimestral e de US$ 4,4 milhões na comparação anual. A margem financeira de juros aumentou 2 pontos-base em relação ao trimestre anterior, para 2,76%.
  • A receita não proveniente de juros aumentou para US$ 64,8 milhões, impulsionada por maiores volumes de transações com cartões, atividade cambial mais forte e uma taxa não recorrente de renovação de contrato. A receita de tarifas representou 40% da receita total.
  • Aproximadamente US$ 500 milhões em depósitos previstos de trust e liquidação corporativa sairão do balanço patrimonial, levando os depósitos para a faixa anteriormente estimada pela administração, de US$ 12,0 bilhões a US$ 12,5 bilhões.
  • Os empréstimos inadimplentes aumentaram para US$ 119,6 milhões, ou 2,7% dos empréstimos brutos, refletindo principalmente exposições imobiliárias residenciais nas Ilhas do Canal e no Reino Unido. A administração afirmou que as operações permanecem bem garantidas e não espera perdas de crédito.
  • A aquisição do CIBC Caribbean permanece no prazo previsto, com conclusão esperada para o primeiro semestre de 2027, sujeita a aprovações regulatórias e outros requisitos da transação.

Principais Dados Financeiros

Métrica3T2026Variação ou contexto
Lucro líquidoUS$ 61,0 milhõesUS$ 1,50 por ação
Lucro líquido ajustadoUS$ 64,2 milhõesUS$ 1,58 por ação
Retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido médio21,3%Métrica de rentabilidade divulgada
Retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido tangível médio ajustado25,0%Métrica de rentabilidade ajustada
Receita de juros líquida antes da provisão para perdas de créditoUS$ 97,2 milhõesAlta de US$ 1,6 milhão no QoQ e de US$ 4,4 milhões no YoY
Margem líquida de juros2,76%Alta de 2 p.b. no QoQ e de 3 p.b. no YoY
Custo dos depósitos1,27%Alta de 2 p.b. no QoQ
Receita não proveniente de jurosUS$ 64,8 milhõesAlta de US$ 1,4 milhão no QoQ e de US$ 3,6 milhões no YoY
Índice de eficiência ajustado57,8%Abaixo da meta de 60% da administração ao longo do ciclo
Ativos totaisUS$ 14,3 bilhõesAlta em relação aos US$ 14,1 bilhões no final de 2025
DepósitosUS$ 12,9 bilhõesDepósitos médios foram de US$ 13,1 bilhões
EmpréstimosUS$ 4,4 bilhõesEstável em grande parte na comparação trimestral
InvestimentosUS$ 5,6 bilhõesEstável em grande parte na comparação trimestral
Empréstimos inadimplentesUS$ 119,6 milhões2,7% dos empréstimos brutos, ante 2,2% no 2T
Provisão para perdas de créditoUS$ 27,0 milhões0,6% do total de empréstimos
Taxa líquida de baixas para prejuízo0,02%Permaneceu baixo
Dividendo trimestralUS$ 0,50 por açãoAprovado pelo conselho de administração

Desempenho Operacional e dos Negócios

O reinvestimento em títulos de maior rendimento e os retornos mais fortes da carteira de tesouraria apoiaram a receita de juros líquida. Esses benefícios foram parcialmente compensados pelo menor rendimento dos empréstimos e por custos de captação ligeiramente mais altos. Os empréstimos médios aumentaram modestamente, enquanto os saldos médios de investimentos ficaram praticamente inalterados.

A receita não proveniente de juros foi beneficiada pelo aumento das receitas bancárias e de câmbio. A receita bancária refletiu a maior atividade de cartões e uma modesta taxa não recorrente de renovação de contrato, enquanto a receita cambial foi impulsionada por maiores volumes de clientes.

As despesas ajustadas não provenientes de juros aumentaram 3,5% em relação ao trimestre anterior. A alta refletiu um trimestre completo de despesas da aquisição da R&H Guernsey, em comparação com um trimestre parcial no 2T, além de custos com desligamento de funcionários e maiores despesas operacionais diversas.

A carteira de empréstimos do Butterfield permaneceu concentrada em hipotecas residenciais de direito de regresso total. Dessas hipotecas, 78% apresentavam índice de garantia (LTV) abaixo de 70%. Sua carteira de US$ 5,6 bilhões em títulos do Tesouro dos EUA e de agências governamentais foi totalmente classificada como AA ou superior.

As perdas não realizadas da carteira disponível para venda aumentaram para US$ 187,3 milhões, ante US$ 106,7 milhões no 2T, com a alta das taxas de juros de longo prazo. A duração (duration) da carteira aumentou para 4,9 anos devido à desaceleração esperada dos pré-pagamentos e à inclinação da curva de juros dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA.

Projeções da Administração

A administração espera que a margem líquida de juros e a receita de juros líquida permaneçam relativamente estáveis no curto prazo. Espera-se que as saídas de depósitos sejam compensadas pela repremificação de ativos em investimentos e caixa de curto prazo, com um modesto aumento nos custos de depósitos. A administração enxerga um viés positivo no médio prazo vindo de taxas mais altas e potencial repremificação adicional em 2027.

A expectativa para as despesas ajustadas trimestrais não provenientes de juros é ficar entre US$ 93 milhões e US$ 95 milhões até o fechamento da transação com o CIBC Caribbean. A administração afirmou que os benefícios da realocação de cargos para Halifax estão se tornando menos expressivos, embora ainda existam pequenas oportunidades de eficiência.

Com base nas taxas a termo implícitas, a administração espera que as perdas acumuladas em outros resultados abrangentes relacionadas à carteira disponível para venda melhorem aproximadamente 21% em 12 meses e 42% em 24 meses.

A transação do CIBC Caribbean deve ser concluída no primeiro semestre de 2027. Os pedidos regulatórios foram submetidos, as equipes de integração estão ativas e o Butterfield está preparando uma emissão de dívida para financiar a aquisição.

Em base pro forma, a administração afirmou que o banco combinado teria aproximadamente US$ 29 bilhões em ativos, US$ 25 bilhões em depósitos, US$ 1,7 bilhão em patrimônio líquido tangível e mais de US$ 400 milhões em lucros anualizados (run-rate).

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

Espera-se que aproximadamente US$ 500 milhões em depósitos de trust privado e liquidação corporativa deixem o banco poucas semanas após o fim do trimestre. A administração espera que essa saída reduza o tamanho do balanço, mas informou que ela será inicialmente financiada com US$ 3,8 bilhões em caixa e títulos de curto prazo.

Os empréstimos inadimplentes aumentaram principalmente devido às exposições imobiliárias residenciais nas Ilhas do Canal e no Reino Unido. A administração citou pressões de liquidez e incerteza macroeconômica na carteira de Londres, bem como incertezas relacionadas a mudanças tributárias e regulatórias no Reino Unido.

A aquisição exige aprovações regulatórias em diversos mercados. O Butterfield também está revisando a exposição em títulos soberanos do CIBC Caribbean nas Bahamas e em Barbados, incluindo negociabilidade e compromissos com os governos locais.

Destaques das Perguntas e Respostas com Analistas

  • Saídas de depósitos e receita de juros líquida: A administração espera que a saída de US$ 500 milhões venha principalmente do caixa. Apesar do balanço menor, a expectativa é que a receita de juros líquida de curto prazo permaneça praticamente estável devido à repremificação de ativos e taxas mais elevadas.
  • Estratégia do balanço patrimonial do CIBC Caribbean: O Butterfield está revisando a carteira de investimentos adquirida, composta principalmente por títulos do Tesouro dos EUA de duração relativamente curta. Qualquer decisão de reestruturação será tomada mais perto do fechamento.
  • Oportunidades de crescimento após a aquisição: A administração vê potencial para expandir o varejo bancário, empréstimos com garantia hipotecária residencial, empréstimos com garantias e credenciamento de adquirentes (merchant acquiring) no médio e longo prazos. Também vê espaço para ganhar participação de mercado em jurisdições adquiridas de crescimento mais rápido, adotando uma abordagem cautelosa.
  • Demanda por hipotecas e exposição no Reino Unido: A administração descreveu o ambiente de crédito como competitivo e não espera uma repremificação ascendente ampla dos empréstimos. Ela continua monitorando a pressão de liquidez e a incerteza na carteira hipotecária de Londres.
  • Gestão de despesas: O Butterfield permanece confiante em atingir um ritmo de execução (run rate) de despesas ajustadas trimestrais entre US$ 93 milhões e US$ 95 milhões, enquanto quantifica separadamente as potenciais sinergias da transação.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados


Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good morning. My name is Drew, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call for The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Noah Fields, Butterfield's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Noah Fields

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will be reviewing Butterfield's third quarter 2026 financial results. On the call, I'm joined by Michael Collins, Butterfield's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Schrum, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Bri Hidalgo, Chief Risk Officer. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the call up for a question-and-answer session. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our third quarter 2026 results.

The press release and financial statements, along with a slide presentation that we will refer to during our remarks on this call, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at butterfieldgroup.com. Before I turn the call over to Michael Collins, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussions will refer to certain non-GAAP measures which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance.

For a reconciliation of these measures to U.S. GAAP, please refer to the earnings press release and slide presentation. Today's call and associated materials may also contain certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these risks can be found in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Michael Collins.

Michael Collins

Thank you, Noah, and thanks to everyone joining the call today. Our third quarter performance reflects the strength and resilience of Butterfield, the depth of our client relationships and the disciplined execution of our strategy, all of which position us well for continued long-term growth. Butterfield is a leading offshore bank and wealth manager with strong market positions in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands, complemented by a growing retail banking presence in the Channel Islands.

We also provide wealth management services to high-net-worth individuals, families and institutions through offices in the Bahamas, Switzerland, Singapore and the U.K. In the U.K., we originate residential mortgages for high-net-worth clients for properties in Prime Central London. I will now turn to highlights from the quarter on Page 6.

Third quarter results reflected continued strength across the franchise with net income of $61 million or $1.50 per share and core net income of $64.2 million or $1.58 per share. Profitability remained strong with a return on average common equity of 21.3% and core return on average tangible common equity of 25%. Net interest margin improved by 2 basis points to 2.76% despite a 2-basis point increase in deposit costs to 1.27%.

We also continued to return capital to shareholders through our quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share. Finally, we continue to make progress on the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean with closing expected in the first half of 2027. We will provide some additional details about the progress later in the call. I will now turn the call over to Michael Schrum for more details on the third quarter.

Michael Schrum

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. On Slide 7, we provide a summary of net interest income and net interest margin. In the third quarter, we reported net interest income before provision for credit losses of $97.2 million, an increase of $1.6 million from the prior quarter or an increase of $4.4 million from the third quarter in 2025. The net interest margin of 2.76% was 2 basis points higher than the prior quarter and 3 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2025.

Net interest income and margin benefited from continued reinvestment into higher-yielding securities and stronger treasury portfolio returns, although these gains were partly offset by lower loan yields and slightly higher funding costs. Balance sheet volumes remained stable during the quarter with average investment balances largely unchanged and average loan balances increasing modestly compared to the second quarter.

Slide 8 provides a summary of noninterest income, which continued to trend favorably, increasing $1.4 million to $64.8 million in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, noninterest income increased $3.6 million. The quarter's improvement was due primarily to higher banking revenues and stronger foreign exchange activity.

Banking revenues benefited from increased card transaction volumes as well as a modest nonrecurring contract fee renewal, while foreign exchange revenue reflected higher client volumes. Fee-based revenue represented 40% of total revenues during the quarter, comparing favorably to historical peer averages and highlighting the quality and stability of our overall earnings.

On Slide 9, we present core noninterest expenses. Core non-interest expenses increased 3.5% from the prior quarter, reflecting the full quarter of operating expenses from R&H Guernsey acquisition compared with the partial quarter in the second quarter. Excluding acquisition-related costs, expenses were also impacted by higher salaries and benefits, primarily due to staff departure costs as well as increased other operating expenses.

Our core efficiency ratio was 57.8%, remaining below our through-cycle target of 60% and highlighting our continued focus on expense management. We continue to expect quarterly core noninterest expenses to be in the range of $93 million to $95 million until we close the CIBC Caribbean transaction.

Slide 10 shows that Butterfield's balance sheet remains strong and highly liquid with total assets increasing to $14.3 billion from $14.1 billion at year-end 2025. Growth was driven primarily by higher deposit balances, while loan and investment balances remained relatively stable. Deposits increased to $12.9 billion and average deposits rose to $13.1 billion from $12.6 billion at the prior year-end, reflecting continued client confidence.

Deposits remained elevated at the quarter end, but we have received notice prior to quarter end that approximately $500 million worth of deposits would exit within weeks. This represents a handful of private trust and corporate liquidation fund deposits in a mix of demand and interest-bearing accounts. This would bring the deposit levels to our previously estimated range of $12 billion to $12.5 billion, where we expect for it to remain.

Loans ended the quarter at $4.4 billion and investments at $5.6 billion, both largely unchanged from the prior quarter, highlighting the stability of our balance sheet. We also maintain a conservative risk profile with risk-weighted assets representing just 27.3% of total assets, reflecting low risk density on our balance sheet.

On Slide 11, we show that Butterfield's asset quality remained acceptable in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the continued strength of our conservative loan portfolio and high-quality investment holdings. Our $4.4 billion loan portfolio remains heavily weighted towards full recourse residential mortgages with 78% of those mortgages carrying loan-to-value ratios below 70%. This reflects the conservative underwriting standards and low risk profile of our loan book.

Our $5.6 billion U.S. Treasury and agency investment portfolio also maintained its exceptional credit quality with 100% of holdings rated AA or better, demonstrating the strength and liquidity of the investment portfolio.

Credit performance remained solid despite the increase in nonaccrual loans to $119.6 million or 2.7% of gross loans, up from 2.2% in the prior quarter, driven primarily by residential real estate exposures in the Channel Islands and U.K. segment. Importantly, these facilities remain well secured, and we do not expect any credit losses. The allowance for credit losses improved modestly to $27 million, representing 0.6% of total loans, while the net charge-off ratio was low at 0.02%.

On Slide 12, we present the average cash and securities balances with a summary of interest rate sensitivity. Our investment portfolio remained conservatively positioned during the quarter with duration increasing to 4.9 years, reflecting slower expected prepayments on fixed rate investments and a steeper U.S. treasury yield curve. Our balance sheet continues to be asset sensitive, although interest rate sensitivity has moderated from the prior quarter due to lower treasury interbank placements used to manage short-term deposit flows.

Our asset sensitivity continues to be above that of the U.S. peer group. As expected, the increase in longer-term interest rates resulted in higher unrealized losses within the available-for-sale portfolio, which increased to $187.3 million at the quarter end from $106.7 million in the second quarter. Based on current implied forward rates, we expect the unrealized losses within accumulated other comprehensive income related to the AFS portfolio to improve by approximately 21% over the next 12 months and 42% over the next 24 months.

Slide 13 summarizes regulatory and leverage capital levels. The Board of Directors has once again approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. TCE to TA continues to be conservatively above our targeted range of 6% to 6.5%. I will now turn the call over to Bri Hidalgo to provide an update on the CIBC Caribbean transaction. Bri?

Bri Hidalgo

Thank you, Michael. Turning to the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean. The transaction remains on track with regulatory approvals, financing activities and integration planning progressing as expected. During the quarter, we received shareholder approval for the acquisition and submitted the required regulatory applications. We have continued our engagement with employees, clients, governments and our regulators across our markets, including employee town halls and advancing stakeholder outreach efforts.

In parallel, dedicated integration teams have been established and are actively planning for a successful transition and realization of the strategic benefits of the transaction. We are also preparing for a debt issuance to support the acquisition. Overall, we remain on schedule for regulatory approvals and anticipate closing in the first half of 2027. I will now turn the call back to Michael Collins.

Michael Collins

Thank you, Bri. We remain enthusiastic and optimistic about the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean. We believe the combination will result in a stronger regional banking franchise with enhanced capabilities across corporate banking, personal banking and wealth management, creating the leading independent bank in the Atlantic and English-speaking Caribbean. Together, we will be better positioned to meet the evolving needs of our clients while delivering benefits to all stakeholders.

With approximately $29 billion in assets, $25 billion in deposits, $1.7 billion in tangible common equity and more than $400 million in run rate earnings on a pro forma basis, the combined bank will have the scale, financial strength and earnings power to compete effectively and drive sustainable earnings and growth. September marked 10 years since Butterfield's New York Stock Exchange listing.

And during that time, we have delivered a consistent record of performance, generating returns on equity of approximately 15% to 25% while growing profits and earnings per share. Over that period, we have demonstrated the durability of our business model across varying economic and interest rate environments. Our success has been built on a high-quality business model with fee income contributing approximately 40% of revenues and a disciplined approach to risk and expense management that has allowed us to generate strong returns without relying on elevated credit or investment risk.

Combined with thoughtful capital deployment, strategic acquisitions and significant shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases, this has enabled us to create meaningful long-term value. We see the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean as the next step in that journey, enhancing our scale, capabilities and market position. We look forward to welcoming our new colleagues and clients to Butterfield. Thank you. And with that, we would be happy to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Tim Switzer with KBW.

Perguntas e respostas

Timothy Switzer

First one I have is just a little bit more of commentary on the NIM outlook. Can you maybe talk about what impact you've seen so far from rate hikes across U.S. and your other jurisdictions that are impacted? And then what your expectations would be on the impact going forward?

Michael Schrum

Yes. Tim, it's Michael Schrum. Yes, I mean, obviously, things are bouncing around a little bit with us finally landing on deposit levels that we've sort of foreshadowed over the last sort of year or so. And then obviously, NIM is pulling through broadly with somewhat of a lag at a 50% overall beta. So in the short term, we expect NIM to be relatively flat. So it will be deposit outflows offset by asset repricing effectively in the investment and the short-term cash bucket and some modest uptick in cost of deposits.

So generally speaking, on a core basis, we would expect NIM to be flat in the short term with a sort of modest tailwind into the next year coming from the previously announced Fed rate increases and then possibly depending on what happens with some further upward adjustment. So good news overall, there's a bit of fluctuation in deposit levels. But I think broadly speaking, loans have been flat. And obviously, we've sort of held on the repricing of Bermuda base rate affecting mortgage holders for the last hike. And so that would probably give us some further opportunities into '27.

Timothy Switzer

Got it. That was very helpful. And you touched on this, but can you help us get an idea of the NII impact of the deposits that are moving off balance sheet? Like if I -- it sounds like the NIM is staying flat with the move. Do I just take, say, $400-plus million of deposits and use your normalized NIM, that's $11 million or so annually?

Michael Schrum

Yes. I mean it's -- we expect NII again to be relatively flat. Obviously, there's a little bit of seasonality on the balance sheet as well. So typically, Cayman deposits, we get more inflows in the fourth quarter. So seasonal variations obviously can impact a little bit. But I think, generally speaking, we should expect NII to be flat in the short term with a positive bias in the medium term. So exactly as you said, there's multiple moving parts there, but it should be a net positive that rates are going up over time.

Operator

The next question comes from Evan Kwiatkowski with Raymond James.

Evan Kwiatkowski

I just wanted to touch on the deal first. Could you update us on any intention to pursue balance sheet optimization opportunities with the deal, whether it be repositioning anything on the loans for securities side? And then just curious if there's any businesses or portfolios on the CIBC Caribbean side, you're looking to grow further or conversely run off?

Michael Schrum

Yes. Maybe I'll just kick off just on the optimization. Obviously, the CIBC Caribbean entities still report to CIBC in Toronto. And so we started to take a look at, obviously, their investment portfolios and had some good conversations around liquidity contingency and starting to sort of talk about what types of investments they have. I mean most of that is going to be U.S. treasuries relatively short duration. So not as big of a rate impact on the fair market valuation of that.

They do have some sovereign securities in both Bahamas and Barbados that we're taking a look at in terms of either marketability or commitments that we've made to those governments. And so there will probably be some further work we'll do before closing to just familiarize ourselves. And I think at closing, we'll obviously take a look and see if we need to restructure a little bit.

As you know, moving to our model is mainly -- we don't have any credit risk in the investment portfolio. So we want to kind of make sure we're not doubling down on sovereign risk as well, but obviously subject to sensitivities in those individual jurisdictions. So I think good conversations so far, nothing really untoward in there and some liquidity in some securities, but good to see that it's mainly U.S. treasury based.

Michael Collins

Yes. And I think we're very happy with the footprint. So each of these jurisdictions have very sticky deposits. They have a lot of similarities, but they are very different, which gives us great diversification across the deposit base. We've got all of our regulatory applications in.

We've gotten a very warm welcome from all the governments and central banks, spent a lot of time down there and spent a lot of time with our new CIBC Caribbean colleagues. It's a great cultural fit, really good rapport. And it's a really, really good bank. I mean it's really well run and great systems, great people. So we're very excited about it. But currently, we're very happy with the entire footprint.

Bri Hidalgo

Yes. And recall, we previously mentioned the extensive due diligence that we performed on both the investment portfolio and credit book. And it's a well-performing book. It largely aligns with our underwriting standards and risk expectations.

Michael Schrum

I think -- yes, I mean, if you look over the sort of longer term, we are sort of more of a retail bank than more of a corporate bank. And so we're sort of seeing what are the opportunities in the retail space, whether it's residential mortgage-backed lending, collateral-backed lending and then obviously, trying to see if there's any other additional things that maybe we could pick up such as merchant acquiring and noncompetitive services as well. So pretty positive overall, but this would sort of be a transition over the medium to longer term.

Evan Kwiatkowski

That's really helpful. And then maybe just switching to the loan side. It seemed like mortgage was pretty stable quarter-over-quarter. I'm just curious how you think about growth in the single-family resi portfolio in general against a higher rate backdrop and whether you expect any significant changes in demand if we get further rate hikes?

Michael Schrum

Yes. I mean, obviously, that sort of is the intent of the rate hikes we're reviewing. We don't really see any credit pressures, maybe with the exception a little bit in our London book, but those nonperformers are really coming through liquidity pressures in that book and uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment. You probably saw the U.K. budget was announced this morning.

No surprises there from a housing perspective, but there are some longer-term uncertainty in that market surrounding the regulatory changes that they've made to -- particularly to resident non-dom regime and some of the tax changes they've made some additional friction costs in the form of stamp duty, et cetera. So stability is better, obviously, for that book. I think people are sort of nervous when there's new prime ministers coming in with a greater degree of frequency.

But we're seeing some good traction in terms of obviously other areas that kind of facing uncertainty primarily in the Middle East. So we're seeing people coming back and maybe renting into Central London. So that's sort of supporting some of the liquidity aspects. But we've done a pretty detailed look at the London book, and I think we're pretty happy with that being temporary, but the question is how long is temporary? It's been going on for a little bit.

Evan Kwiatkowski

Got it. And then if I could sneak one more in. If I could round it off on the expense side. Just curious if this high $90 million per quarter range is a reasonable core run rate. I know you've mentioned before some opportunities for expense savings, relocating people to Halifax. Just curious if you still see that as an opportunity or if there's anything else you're looking at in terms of optimizing the expense base.

Michael Schrum

Yes, good question. Obviously, expenses were a little high this quarter, a number of sort of non-recurring things impacting that. So we still believe -- are confident that we can get to $93 million to $95 million. That should be the run rate going forward. I think we've kind of gotten to the less meaningful impact of the Halifax move. We almost have 300 people up there, and we want to retain client faces in our jurisdictions.

So we're kind of looking at the 2s and 3s as opposed to the 10s and 20s. But I think there's still more opportunity in that space. And then we're kind of being also focusing on quantifying the synergies from the deal as they come through. So I think we're sort of thinking, there are some more opportunities, but we're kind of pausing a little bit on that on the BAU side, but still kind of confident that we'll get into that range in the short term.

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Rutschow with Wells Fargo.

Robert Rutschow

Just a housekeeping question on the deposit outflow, I assume most of that will come out of cash? Or do you expect to sort of maintain the size of the balance sheet? And then I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on the decline in loan yields overall and whether that should bounce back going forward.

Michael Schrum

Yes. Maybe I'll kick off. Certainly, yes, you're right. The balance sheet will be smaller by $0.5 billion. We have a lot of -- $3.8 billion cash and short-term securities. So not really affecting our liquidity position. These were expected outflows and sort of treated as contractual funding, if you will from all of our -- in all of our regulatory submissions. And certainly, our models have already factored that in as at last quarter end.

It was a mixture of liquidation money, and I think we've talked about this before. It's a long-standing fund that was going into voluntary liquidation. The fund was sitting on our balance sheet. We knew it was coming out. So the balance sheet will be smaller by -- will come into a deposit range of $12 billion to $12.5 billion. And I think that's kind of what we said previously. And yes, that will come out of cash in the first instance, so obviously affecting the size of the returns in the NII.

But then behind that is obviously a rising interest rate environment. So that's kind of helpful in that regard. In terms of loan yields, and I think we have this in an appendix, we've seen mainly the ARMs that we have in our book resetting to floating at this point. And so while -- and we've sort of lagged the repricing of the Fed rate increase, particularly in Bermuda.

And as you know, the U.K. BOE rate has recently moved. So we're expecting some repricing there. But generally speaking, I think that loans are stable. It's competitive environment. So I'm not expecting sort of loans to reprice upwards at this point, although the fixed to floating piece is definitely the remixing piece that's impacting the loan yield effectively.

Robert Rutschow

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a question on the deal. I guess some of the acquired islands that you're going into appear to have a little bit faster GDP growth. When you're thinking about synergies with the deal, anything you might do to sort of lean into better growth in those new markets?

Michael Collins

Yes. I mean, as I said, they're all very different jurisdictions, but all recovering from COVID quite well. So Barbados, the IMF came in, they got their debt to GDP way down, growing quite well in Bahamas as well.

Michael Schrum

Yes. So I think -- I mean the thing to look at there is, obviously, we have challenges in our growth trajectories with the islands where we have large market share. So in Bermuda and Cayman, in particular, we have really, really nice market share. Some of these new islands, we have a lower market share.

And when you look at the business mix between the retail and corporate book and particularly lending and deposits, I think there's a real opportunity there to grow some of that in line with GDP, which is, as you said, growing faster than some of the other small islands, but take a little bit of market share as well as part of that and then maybe over time, sort of moderate some of their corporate lending. But again, this will be sort of a long-term project. We're not thinking a big push in retail. We're sort of thinking take our market share initially and just focus a little bit more on that.

Michael Collins

Yes. And I think Barbados, Bahamas, certainly Cayman, Barbados, Bahamas and Turks and Caicos are strong market shares. All the other islands do quite well. So it adds up quite well. I think going forward, we're going to focus a lot on Cayman, Barbados, and there are different economies. So Barbados is tourist economy, but also a big domestic economy, a large population. And if you've been in the Bahamas recently, it's in terms of wealth management and properties and real estate, it's incredibly good at this point.

So everything seems to be growing quite well. The whole region is kind of coming back from COVID. Tourism is up. So we're pretty excited about the opportunities. But yes, we're not projecting a lot of cost synergies. Our focus is to support the governments and communities. There are unions as well. And so we're making commitments to support everyone across the board, and it will be very lucrative over time, but we're going to take our time.

Operator

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Noah Fields for closing remarks.

Noah Fields

Thank you, Drew, and thanks to everyone for dialing in today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter, and have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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