Teleconferência de Resultados do 3Q26 da Quest Diagnostics (DGX): Receita Sobe 10%, Guidance Elevado

A Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) relatou um crescimento amplo em sua teleconferência de resultados do terceiro trimestre de 2026, impulsionado pela demanda de médicos, hospitais e consumidores. A administração elevou e estreitou suas projeções de receita e LPA para o ano todo, destacando os cortes de reembolso do PAMA como um grande risco para 2027.

Principais Destaques

• A receita do terceiro trimestre de 2026 aumentou 10% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior, atingindo US$ 3,1 bilhões. A receita de Serviços de Informações Diagnósticas cresceu 10,2%, incluindo um crescimento orgânico de 10,1%.
• O LPA diluído ajustado subiu 15,4%, para US$ 3,00. A margem operacional ajustada se expandiu em 40 pontos-base, alcançando 16,7%.
• O volume orgânico de requisições aumentou 14,4%. Excluindo Corewell Health e Fresenius Medical Care, o volume subiu 5% e a receita cresceu 6,6%.
• A Quest elevou sua projeção de receita para o ano fiscal de 2026 para US$ 12,065 bilhões–US$ 12,105 bilhões e a projeção de LPA ajustado para US$ 11,25–US$ 11,35.
• A receita da divisão de saúde do consumidor deve crescer mais de 30% no ano completo. A empresa planeja lançar a solicitação direta de exames laboratoriais por meio do aplicativo Apple Health no final de 2026.
• A administração estima que o PAMA pode reduzir a receita de 2027 em aproximadamente 1%, embora a empresa pretenda compensar parte do impacto por meio de crescimento e eficiências adicionais.

Principais Dados Financeiros

A Corewell Health e a Fresenius Medical Care contribuíram com 9,5 pontos percentuais para o crescimento do volume trimestral. O mix de negócios com menor receita dessas parcerias impulsionou a queda reportada na receita por requisição. A administração afirmou que os preços de reembolso permaneceram amplamente estáveis.

Desempenho Operacional e de Negócios

A receita do canal de médicos cresceu na faixa de um dígito alto, impulsionada pela execução comercial, ampla demanda por testes e ampliação do acesso a planos de saúde. A Quest também está desenvolvendo recursos comerciais especializados para nefrologistas após a parceria com a Fresenius e projeta oportunidades adicionais na área de cuidados renais em 2027.

A receita do canal hospitalar teve crescimento de dois dígitos, liderada pelos volumes da Corewell Health. A receita de exames de referência cresceu no meio de um dígito, enquanto os volumes de referência subiram dois dígitos. A Quest também assinou um acordo para adquirir ativos selecionados de exames externos (outreach) de um grande sistema de saúde do nordeste dos EUA, com fechamento previsto para o final de 2026.

A área de saúde do consumidor permaneceu como o canal de crescimento mais rápido, com a administração projetando um crescimento superior a 30% para o ano fiscal de 2026. A Quest planeja permitir que usuários de iPhone e iPad comprem, agendem e recebam resultados de mais de 50 biomarcadores por meio do aplicativo Apple Health. O serviço também incluirá medições biométricas em cerca de 2.000 centros de atendimento ao paciente da Quest.

A administração afirmou que as margens do segmento de saúde do consumidor são acretivas para a margem operacional consolidada da empresa. O canal se beneficia da ausência de glosas de planos de saúde e concessões a pacientes, além de um maior número de exames por requisição.

A divisão de Diagnósticos Avançados gerou crescimento de dois dígitos em diversas áreas, incluindo exames cardiometabólicos avançados, testes hormonais e exames para a doença de Alzheimer. A Quest também lançou um novo painel AD-Detect combinando os biomarcadores beta-amiloide e P-tau217.

A Quest segue no caminho certo para gerar 3% em economias anuais de custos e melhorias de produtividade por meio de seu programa Invigorate. As iniciativas de automação e IA incluem alicotagem automatizada de amostras e varredura assistida por IA para micróbios e impurezas em testes de água para diálise.

Orientação da Administração (Guidance)

A perspectiva de receita exclui aquisições futuras além das transações já anunciadas. A administração espera que a margem operacional do ano completo se expanda em relação a 2025 e que o número de ações seja ligeiramente menor.

Espera-se que o Projeto Nova reduza o LPA do ano fiscal de 2026 em US$ 0,25, com aproximadamente 70% da despesa incorrida no segundo semestre e gastos concentrados mais fortemente no 4T. A Quest espera começar a implantar as soluções da Epic em seu primeiro laboratório no outono de 2027.

Para 2027, a administração espera que a utilização permaneça forte e que os preços, excluindo o PAMA, permaneçam amplamente estáveis. Corewell e Fresenius não trarão a mesma contribuição incremental para o crescimento da receita após o aniversário das parcerias em outubro de 2026, embora se espere que suas margens melhorem ainda mais. O investimento no projeto Nova também deve aumentar em 2027.

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

O reembolso do PAMA continua sendo o principal risco de políticas públicas. A Quest estima um impacto de aproximadamente 1% da receita total da empresa em 2027 e um impacto acumulado inferior a 1,3% de 2027 a 2029. A administração planeja compensar parte da pressão, mas não sua totalidade, e fornecerá mais detalhes juntamente com os resultados do 4T.

A Quest argumentou que o processo de coleta de dados do PAMA em 2026 não representou adequadamente o mercado. Os laboratórios independentes responderam por 76,5% do volume reportado, enquanto os hospitais contribuíram com menos de 10%. A administração está apoiando o projeto de lei bipartidário RESULTS Act e afirmou que um novo adiamento nas alterações das tarifas continua sendo possível, embora nenhum dos desfechos seja garantido.

A empresa também divulgou um acesso não autorizado a um sistema de solicitação de exames usado por certos clientes que não possuem sistema de prontuário eletrônico. A administração afirmou que o incidente não causou impacto material nas operações ou no atendimento a médicos e pacientes, mas ressaltou que a investigação ainda está em estágio inicial.

O volume de requisições provenientes dos planos de saúde do Affordable Care Act (ACA) diminuiu, mas o número maior de exames por requisição e um mix de maior complexidade limitaram o impacto na receita do 3T a aproximadamente 10 pontos-base. A administração prevê um impacto de 10 a 20 pontos-base no 4T.

Destaques da Sessão de Perguntas e Respostas com Analistas

• Crescimento subjacente: A administração descreveu o crescimento de volume de 5% excluindo a Corewell e a Fresenius como um resultado limpo, sem efeitos climáticos incomuns. O crescimento foi distribuído entre os canais de médicos, hospitais e consumidores.
• Receita por requisição: O aumento ajustado pelo mix desacelerou para 1,7%, em comparação a aproximadamente 2,9% no 2T. A Quest atribuiu isso principalmente a requisições de referência hospitalar de exame único e a um volume de exames de menor preço, e não à pressão de reembolso.
• Margens: A expansão da margem ajustada de 40 pontos-base em relação ao ano anterior refletiu a alavancagem operacional do volume orgânico e as economias do programa Invigorate, parcialmente compensadas pela inflação salarial e pelo mix da Corewell e Fresenius.
• Compensações do PAMA: A administração aconselhou a não presumir que todo o impacto estimado na receita com o PAMA afetará o resultado final. As possíveis compensações serão focadas na infraestrutura e em funções de suporte, e não na equipe de frente, nas operações laboratoriais ou nos investimentos em crescimento.
• Contas a receber: O prazo médio de recebimento (DSO) aumentou cerca de três dias em relação ao final do ano devido ao mix de clientes, prazos de pagamento mais longos e menos dias úteis bancários. A administração não relatou deterioração significativa nas perdas com inadimplência nem nas concessões de preços a pacientes.
• Lançamento no Apple Health: A oferta permaneceu em testes beta, com lançamento completo previsto para antes do final de 2026. A administração não forneceu uma previsão de adoção e espera discutir a adesão inicial após o lançamento.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Welcome to the Quest Diagnostics Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. At the request of the company, this call is being recorded. The entire contents of the call, including the presentation and question-and-answer session that will follow are the copyrighted property of Quest Diagnostics with all rights reserved. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without written consent of Quest Diagnostics is strictly prohibited. I would like to introduce Damini Chokshi, Vice President of Investor Relations for Quest Diagnostics. Please go ahead.

Damini Chokshi

Thank you, and good morning. I'm joined by Jim Davis, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Sam Samad, our Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we may make forward-looking statements and will discuss non-GAAP measures. We provide a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures in the tables to our earnings press release. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Risks and uncertainties that may affect Quest Diagnostics' future results include, but are not limited to, those described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.

For this call, reference to reported EPS refer to reported diluted EPS and references to adjusted EPS refer to adjusted diluted EPS. Growth rates associated with our long-term outlook projections, including consolidated revenue growth, revenue growth from acquisitions, organic revenue growth and adjusted earnings growth are compound annual growth rates. Now here's Jim.

James Davis

Thanks, Damini, and welcome, everyone, to this morning's call. I'm excited to discuss our strong performance in the third quarter and how our strategy to connect people and providers to innovative testing and actionable insights is illuminating path for better health and generating shareholder value. We grew revenues 10% and adjusted earnings per share over 15% in the quarter on continued strength across our physician, hospital and consumer channels, complemented by productivity gains from automation and AI.

Our robust organic revenue growth demonstrates that our solutions are fulfilling the expanding clinical care needs of an aging population as well as the increasing number of people focused on prevention and wellness. With these growth trends and our strong performance, we are again raising our guidance for revenues and earnings per share for the full year.

Now I'll provide more detail on how we executed our strategy across our key customer channels and operations during the quarter. Quest operates at the center of health care. We deliver solutions that make testing simpler and smarter for our core clinical customers, physicians and hospitals as well as for customers in the higher growth areas of consumer health, life sciences and data analytics.

In the physician channel, we delivered high single-digit revenue growth in the third quarter on strong commercial execution and broad demand across our test portfolio. We also continue to grow in geographies where we've expanded our access in recent years through health plan collaborations and outreach acquisitions. We are excited about our collaborations with Fresenius Medical Care and opportunities to serve new customers based on our growing kidney diagnostics expertise.

In addition, we are taking steps to serve the growing nephrology call point and were recently named the primary national lab provider for pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease testing for a kidney care organization. In the hospital channel, we grew revenues by double digits during the quarter on strong volume from collab solutions with Corewell Health in Michigan. Reference testing revenues grew in the mid-single digits. As a preferred strategic partner, Quest provides a range of solutions to help hospitals address continuing financial, workforce and other pressures.

From reference and collab arrangements to outreach acquisitions, we improve quality, innovation and efficiency. Our role serving half of the nation's hospitals each year continues to fuel a robust pipeline of potential collab collaborations and outreach acquisitions. During the quarter, we finalized a definitive agreement to acquire select outreach assets from a long-time collab customer, a leading health system in the Northeastern U.S. We expect to close this transaction later this year. In the consumer health channel, we continue to generate robust growth as we delivered solutions that enable people to own their health.

We are excited to announce the ability for iPhone and iPad users to order labs directly from the Apple Health app, which we see as a continuation of our strategy to deliver innovative solutions that will fulfill the growing interest in preventative health and wellness. Users of the Apple Health app will be able to seamlessly purchase, schedule and receive test results for over 50 biomarkers, including ApoB and Lp(a), all within the app. The panel also includes biometric measurements such as blood pressure and weight at the same time blood is drawn at one of our 2,000 patient service centers. The offering will unlock greater health insights based on both biomarker and biometric data, and we look forward to the full launch of this service later this year. At Quest, we often say that wellness is not the absence of sickness. It's health that is proactive, personal and connected.

Through questhealth.com and our many collaborations, we are making wellness possible for more people. We expect our growth rate across consumer health to exceed 30% for the full year. Turning now to Advanced Diagnostics. We continue to focus on delivering innovative tests in 5 key clinical areas: advanced cardiometabolic in endocrine, autoimmune, brain health, oncology and women's and reproductive health. During the quarter, we grew revenues by double digits for key tests across several of these key areas, including in advanced cardiometabolic, hormone and Alzheimer's disease.

As we approach Alzheimer's disease awareness month in November, I'd like to share our view of this fast-changing area of dementia care. Many diseases today are highly preventable thanks largely to diagnostic innovations enabling early diagnosis. We envision a future where Alzheimer's is also a preventable disease and primary care physicians guided by blood-based tests diagnose and even treat the disease at a much earlier stage. We also believe our multi-biomarker approach can improve clinical evaluation of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias.

Over the summer, we announced that we will soon add the FDA-cleared Roche P-tau217 test to our portfolio. We launched a new AD-detect panel with APE amyloid beta and ptau217 as these biomarkers provide different but complementary information to improve accuracy. For instance, ptau217 and falsely elevate with some comorbidities so a physician may need to refer to amyloid beta to confirm a true positive for Alzheimer's.

Blood testing for the highly complex disease is in the early phases of development, and we look forward to adding significant new biomarkers to our portfolio to support earlier diagnosis and treatment. In women's health, we recently formed the first industry collaboration with Waters Corporation focused on providing access to on clarity self-collection kit through clinical plan and consumer health channels, including patient service centers in the United States.

This new collaboration builds on our experience providing HPV self-collection options for cervical cancer screening with a new convenient at-home auction. We expect to introduce the Waters innovation to clinicians health plans and consumers of questhealth.com next year. I'd like to now turn to operational excellence. We remain on track to deliver 3% in annual cost savings and productivity improvements through our Invigorate program.

Automation and AI continue to be major drivers of improvements in quality, productivity, and efficiencies. As 1 example, specimen allocating involves splitting specimens into small portions prior to testing. The process traditionally requires several human touch points raising the risk of errors that can slow down the whole testing process. During the quarter, we extended an automated allocating solution to 3 drug monitoring labs to enhance quality and efficiency.

Today, 10 of our labs use an automated ala quoting solution, and we plan to extend these capabilities to other labs. We also recently began to use AI at our Clifton, New Jersey lab to scan water for signs of microbes and other impurities as part of our dialysis water testing services. The solution improves quality as well as efficiency because it automatically release specimens with negative findings, so our medical team has more time to concentrate on positive or questionable cases.

Lastly, Project Nova, our initiative to enhance the experiences of health care providers and patients recently advanced from the design phase to the solutions build phase and we are on schedule to begin to deploy EPYC solutions in our first lab in the fall of 2027. Our strong third quarter reflects the critical role lab insights play in our nation's health care.

Before I turn it over to Sam for details of our performance and guidance, I want to share our perspective on the 2027 preliminary rate setting process under PAMA and steps we are taking to support passage of the Results Act. Since PAMA was passed into law in 2014, we have been concerned about the flaws in the data collection process. After 6 years of PAMA delays by Congress, labs were required for a second time to provide their lab data in 2026. We remain deeply concerned that the data collection process this year was also flawed and the resulting preliminary rate cuts for 2027 are excessive.

With ACLA, we continue to advocate for the passage of the bipartisan by Camera Results Act to permanently reform PAMA to ensure the data used to set rates properly reflects the market. Over 135 co-sponsors in Congress share our concerns about PAMA and our commitment to results. We have been told by our champions on the Hill to expect CBO to score the legislation by mid-November. Securing a score is an important milestone as the sponsors work toward potentially including the RESULT Act in any year-end package.

RESULT is the innovative reform our industry and patients need, and we are calling on Congress to enact this important legislation by year's end.

Now I'll turn it over to Sam for more details on our performance and guidance before sharing some final thoughts about the quarter. Sam?

Sam Samad

Thanks, Jim. As Jim shared, we delivered a strong third quarter with consolidated revenues of $3.1 billion, up 10% versus the prior year. Revenues for Diagnostic Information Services were up 10.2% compared to the prior year and 10.1% organically, reflecting continued strong growth in our physician, hospital and consumer channels. Total volume, measured by the number of requisitions, increased 14.5% and versus the third quarter of 2025 with organic volume up 14.4%.

Our Corewell Health and Fresenius Medical Care relationships contributed 9.5% to volume in the quarter. Excluding these 2 relationships, volumes grew by 5%. As anticipated, total revenue per requisition was down 4.2% versus the prior year due to the Corewell and Fresenius business mix. Adjusting for that business mix, revenue per requisition was up by 1.7% versus prior year, driven primarily by an increased number of tests per acquisition. Unit price reimbursement remained generally flat, consistent with our expectations.

Reported operating income in the third quarter was $479 million, or 15.5% of revenues compared to $386 million or 13.7% of revenues last year. On an adjusted basis, operating income was $517 million or 16.7% of revenues compared to $458 million or 16.3% of revenues last year. The 40 basis point improvement versus prior year was driven by organic revenue growth partially offset by wage increases and the business mix impact from Corewell and Fresenius.

Reported EPS in the quarter was $2.78 compared to $2.16 a year ago. Adjusted EPS was $3 versus $2.60 in the prior year, an increase of 15.4%. This increase was largely driven by strong organic operating performance. Cash from operations was $1.49 billion year-to-date versus $1.42 billion in the prior year. This year-over-year increase is the result of higher operating income in the current year partially offset by timing of net working capital and prior year favorability associated with the onetime Cares Act tax credit.

Turning now to our updated full year 2026 guidance. With our strong performance and continued momentum across our business, we are raising and narrowing our full year revenue and EPS estimates. We now expect revenues to be between $12.065 billion and $12.105 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.3% to 9.7%. Reported EPS to be in a range of $10.21 to $10.31 and adjusted EPS in a range of $11.25 to $11.35. Cash from operations to be approximately $1.9 billion and capital expenditures to be approximately $550 million.

Our 2026 full year guidance reflects the following considerations. The revenue guide does not include any contribution from prospective M&A other than what we have announced to date. Nova expense expectations remain consistent for the full year at an EPS impact of $0.25 with approximately 70% of these expenses to be incurred in the second half of this year. Operating margin is expected to expand versus prior year. Share count is expected to be slightly below 2025.

Adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be consistent with 2025 and interest expense is now expected to be lower than 2025. Looking ahead, while we will provide 2027 and longer-term guidance at a later time, I want to offer a few comments on the potential impact of PAMA. The PAMA impact for 2027 is estimated at approximately 1% of total company revenues, consistent with our previous commentary. The cumulative impact is expected to be less than 1.3% of total revenues for years 2027 through 2029. We intend to offset some of this anticipated headwind.

Consistent with prior years, we will provide 2027 guidance in the context of our fourth quarter and full year earnings results early next year. We also look forward to sharing our long-term outlook, along with updates on our growth strategies at our 2027 Investor Day on March 25 at the New York Stock Exchange. We will provide additional information on this event over the coming weeks.

With that, I will now turn it back to Jim.

James Davis

Thanks, Sam. In summary, during the quarter, we delivered robust revenue and earnings growth on sustained demand from physicians, hospitals and consumers complemented by productivity gains from AI and automation. Revenues grew by 10% and adjusted EPS grew by over 15%, demonstrating continued broad demand for our innovations and insights. With our strong business performance and growth momentum, we are raising our revenue and EPS guidance for the full year. I want to close by thanking my colleagues for their commitment and care to delivering diagnostic insights to create a healthier world, 1 life at a time.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Jim. Now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Ann Hynes with Mizuho Securities.

Perguntas e respostas

Ann Hynes

Thanks for the details on PAMA. Can you just provide some maybe color on how much of the PAMA headwind you could offset and maybe some other high-level headwinds and tailwinds we should consider for 2027.

James Davis

Let me just make a few comments on PAMA, the data collection process, and then I'll have Sam talk about offset things like that. So CMS yesterday released some very important data. I don't know if you all saw that. We had been pushing CMS since they announced the fee cuts to provide the information and the volumes by the segment. So how much of the data came from independents, how much came from hospital outreach and how much came from POLs.

Recall in the last survey that over 90% of the data came from independent labs and independent labs surely do not have 90% share of this market. On the new -- what they released yesterday is that the independents represented 76.5% of the volume reported. Again, it is way overestimating the share that independent labs have hospital outreach, which has a significant amount of share, hospitals owning outreach share was less than 10% of the data reported, so if you don't have information, strong volumes being reported by the hospital segment, again, it's going to shift the volume-weighted median way to the left.

So with this information, it emboldens us even further to push fast and furious for the RESULTS Act. Now what we're doing, our trade association Quest and all the members are working -- continue to work hard to pass the RESULTS Act. We are eagerly anticipating a score by the CBO. We think that will come at some point in mid- to late November. And once that score comes out, the primary committees, House ways and means, House Energy and Commerce, end and finance they'll convene and we're going to urge these committees to include the RESULTS Act in some end-of-year package.

So we're going to continue to push hard for the RESULTS Act. Again, we're involved in even more because now we realize that, again, the data collection process is way overestimated the share position of the independent labs. So Sam, let me give it to you to talk a little bit about our budgeting process and offset some things.

Sam Samad

Yes, thank you, Ann, for the question. I think you asked about PAMA offsets First of all, as we've mentioned on the call, the impact from PAMA, we expect to be next year, roughly 1% of revenues. That's largely consistent with our expectations prior to the data collection and the outcome of the data collection. As we have indicated repeatedly, I think in the past, we intend to offset a portion of this impact. When we announce our Q4 results, provide guidance, we will give you a lot more clarity on what that means assuming that the PAMA impact is real and has materialized or is about to materialize because PAMA has -- essentially, the prices have come down, if that, in fact, were to happen.

In terms of just qualitatively on 2027 impact, I mean, first of all, as I said, roughly 1% of impact from PAMA. We intend to offset a portion of it. We're going to look at many aspects of our, I would say, infrastructure support functions and look at potential efficiencies that we can generate beyond the efficiencies that we have been generating across our business. We will not impact things that drive growth. We will not impact our front line. We will not impact our lab operations in any way or our ability to serve patients because utilization has been very strong, and we continue to be very pleased with the utilization that we're seeing.

So again, in terms of 2027, without giving you numbers, I would say the Corewell Fresenius impact, which we expect this year to be roughly 3% in terms of additional revenue growth. That obviously will not be a factor next year in terms of growth because we will lap these partnerships in October of this year. We've got the 1% impact from PAMA that if it were to happen, that would be a negative impact on revenue growth.

Utilization, we expect it to continue at the same levels that we're seeing. There's no reason to expect any moderation of the utilization that we're seeing. From a margin perspective, in -- we do expect to see some continued improvement on the margin from those 2 partnerships, Corewell and Fresenius as we enter 2027, as we said before, those came with lower margins because of integration and investments, integration expenses and investments, but we expect improvement on those margins in 2027.

We will be making additional investments in Nova as expected because we intend to launch at least launch EPYC in our first lab at the end of 2027. So we do intend to make some investments in Nova that are beyond the investments that we've made in Pay '26. So there will be some additional expenses year-over-year regarding Nova. And from a pricing perspective, ex PAMA, we expect to maintain this flattish outlook in terms of pricing across our third-party payer partners.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Cherny with Leerink Partners.

Michael Cherny

Maybe if I can just dive in a little bit on that underlying 5% volume growth. This seemingly tracks above most market stats that we see. So as you think about where that growth is coming from, can you give a little bit of the dynamics of where your execution comes from versus market underlying performance? And how do we think about your growth going forward in terms of what you have the ability to control relative to trying to outpace the market.

James Davis

Yes. Thanks, Michael. So let me start and Sam can interject here. So the 5% you referenced here is our volume growth in the quarter ex Fresenius and ex Corewell. So it was 5% revenue growth, 6% -- 5% volume growth and 6.6% revenue growth. Now as we look across the channels that we always talk about, our physician channel, our hospital channel, both reference and co-lab and our consumer channel we are seeing strong growth across all 3, in the physician channel in the quarter, revenue grew above mid-single digits.

So strong revenue growth, strong volume growth. In our hospital reference business, again, this is reference, not co-lab, not core well, our volumes were double digit in the quarter. Revenue is slightly less than that, but strong growth through our hospital segment and as I noted in our -- in the commentary, our consumer channel all in, both Quest Health Direct plus our partnerships are continuing to generate growth north of 30% this year. So I would tell you, it's across all channels in our business, and we feel good about this going into next year.

Operator

Next question comes from Erin Wright with Morgan Stanley.

Erin Wilson Wright

So I want to dig into consumer a little bit and talk about your partnership with Apple. How do you expect that to ramp here as it kicks off? And are there any nuances to the relationship that are inherently different from contracts with other wearables or consumer platforms and how material kind of do you think this will be for you? And can you remind us of just the overall pricing environment across the consumer directed business?

James Davis

Yes. Thanks, Erin. Look, we're really excited about the Apple Health partnership. It is what I would call beta testing mode at this point. and we expect to go live, they expect to go live at some point later this year before the start of next year. I gave a lot of detail in the script. It's a $119 rack. The types of biomarkers. We're going to do -- like we do for other, what we call employer health stuff, we do check the patient's weight and blood pressure in our PSCs that is routine for other types of wellness work that we do. And it's a seamless experience that one can use through the Apple Health app. .

I can't really provide a forecast because we'll have to wait and see after the launch, how quick the update is -- but it's a great partnership. With the ability to combine biometrics with biomarkers, we strongly believe will unlock additional insights into what is going on inside the human body, those insights then can lead to actionable actions for the patient consumer to take in order to prove their biomarkers, which ultimately leads to an improvement in their human health. So excited about it. Again, expect full launch later in the year, and we'll know more in terms of the uptake, and we'll probably comment on that in January.

Sam Samad

You asked, Erin, as well. This is Sam, about pricing across consumers. So let me focus more on margins across consumer margins across our consumer business are actually accretive to our overall operating margin. So that's an important note because as you see, this channel is growing above 30%, and it's really driving also accretive margins. The reason margins are accretive to our overall business, number one, no denials, no patient concessions. So we benefit from that tailwind. And it's into the fact that these are much more dense rec. So we see sometimes 10 tests per rec and maybe even north of that in certain cases. So you see dense tests, dense recs that help our overall test per req and also more accretive margins. So that's the part that I wanted to make sure is clear.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tycho Peterson with Jefferies.

Tycho Peterson

One maybe just pick up on the margin commentary. So this quarter. How much of that volume leverage versus Invigorate? And maybe can you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the automation, AI angle on margins going forward?

James Davis

Yes. I think, Tycho, to be fair, it's a combination of the leverage you get off of volume. This is a rather high fixed cost business. So an incremental rack drops down at a very, very nice contribution margin. But our INVIGORATE program, we've always targeted for our INVIGORATE to offset wage inflation. -- at 3%, probably north of 3% this year, somewhere between 3% and 4%. That's at least $120 million of pressure on every single year. I don't know that we mentioned fuel cost in the script, but it's -- we have given an estimate of $10 million for the year. It's actually going to be closer to $14 million based on prices going up again here in the third quarter, and we don't see them coming down at this point in the fourth quarter.

So we're offsetting that. So our INVIGORATE program continues to deliver you push through the organic volume, you deliver on the Invigorate and that's what leads us to 40 basis points of margin improvement in the quarter.

Operator

Next question comes from Lou Li with BofA Global Research.

Unknown Analyst

I think earlier you mentioned the utilization is still pretty good. But I'm wondering, can you comment a little bit on the ACA disenrollment impact. Like what do you see in the second half? And then maybe just can 1 short one. I think you have a K this morning on the cybersecurity. Wondering if you have like any more color on the potential financial impact.

James Davis

All right. So let me address the PA and Sam will and give some comments on the additional 8-K. So in the quarter, we saw a reduction of about 11% in terms of REC volume from ACA exchange members. So requisition volume down 8% and but our test per rec on those requisitions was up 8%. So the net impact from a pure test standpoint was down 3%.

When we then look at the types of tests that are being ordered on a requisition, it suggests a higher acuity patients. So these are higher revenue tests. So the net impact overall was maybe 10 basis points of revenue loss on the exchange. So it's next to nothing. So we're not really feeling an impact from it, like some of the health systems hospitals are reporting. In terms of the additional 8-K filing, Sam, you can comment on that.

Sam Samad

Yes. Thank you for the question. So yesterday, we learned of unauthorized access to a test ordering system used by certain clients who don't use an EMR. As we stated in the 8-K that we filed this morning, the incident has not materially disrupted our business operations or our ability to serve physicians and patients. So, the investigation is it's in its early stages, we're not in a position right now to provide any more information or take additional questions on the details at this time, but we will provide updates as appropriate as we go forward.

Operator

Next question comes from Lisa Gill with JPMorgan. .

Lisa Gill

Jim, I just want to go back to your comments around PAMA and just really understand 2 things. One, when we think about the RESULTS Act, have you quantified what the impact of RESULTS would be two, we've heard rumblings that potentially we have another delay of PAMA as they try to work through RESULTS. So what's your anticipation there -- and then lastly, I know it's been asked around the offsets, but historically, you've talked about this being roughly $100 million, now you're talking about 1%, which would be like $125 million so as we think about modeling for '27, all things being equal today, should we assume that there's roughly $20 million or $25 million that you can offset? Or is it more logical at this point to put $125 million into the model?

James Davis

Okay. So again, on the data itself, 76.5% of the data collected by CMS here in 2026, which was from the January to July period of 2025, came from independent labs, which we know is significantly higher than the share that independent labs have. Only 9% less than 10% came from hospitals -- and we know that the share of the outreach market by hospitals, primarily from the physicians they own is significantly higher than 9%. That obviously affects the volume-weighted median calculation and in a very adverse way.

So again, with respect to the RESULT Act, it requires a CBO score -- we expect that CBO score to come -- we're being told in the mid- to late November time frame. And then we go hard at work through the committees. Now I can't give you a probability of RESULTS act getting included or the potential for another delay. What has seemed to become traditional at the end of the year is some type of health care package. There's always extenders that looks to be extended and so our goal is to be included in that end-of-year package.

Now could there be a delay in the rate, Hey, that's always a possibility. And obviously, if we can't -- if we don't see results getting done, if the committees can't get together and get agreement on the new approach, then we'll push for a delay. Having said that, the House Ways and Means -- I'm sorry, House Energy and Commerce had a hearing on the RESULTS Act earlier late this summer. We believe it was a positive hearing. So we believe it has momentum. We've stated that over 135 congressional people have signed on to support it.

And so when Congress is back in session post the election, we're going to be hard at work. We're hard at work right now. We're visiting with staff members on both the Senate and the finance side that still remain in Washington, D.C. Now in terms of the offset, look, we'd love to give you a number, and we're not being coy at all. We've said 1% of 2026 revenue, $12 billion. I can't give you guidance yet, but expect it to be another $500 million, $600 million next year. So take 1% of that number and that is the impact.

Now that's from Medicare, that's from Medicaid plans that are absolutely tied to the Medicare. It's not managed Medicaid, it's straight Medicaid plans. And then there's a very, very small number of health plans that over the last 5 years, we didn't get off of a tie to that schedule. But over the last 5 years, the vast majority of our health plans, we've taken out any language that would tie their fee schedule to a Medicare fee schedule. So we roughly feel it's in that 1% range.

Now is 100% of that going to drop to the bottom line? Absolutely not, okay? We're in the midst of our budgeting process. As Sam said, the things we're not going to touch or the variable cost structure of the company, which we produce invigorate savings on every year. We can't touch phlebotomy. We can't touch logistics. We're not going to touch -- there's always going to be more efficiencies in the lab. But given the incredibly strong volume growth that we have right now, we have to keep the frontline physician staff in order to handle the volume.

The best way to offset this is to grow our way out of it. Now we're left with $1 billion of other costs in the company outside of the work required to provide patient results. And as Sam indicated, we're in the middle of our budgeting process right now, we go through every program in the company and some will delay, some were going to keep because they're important to growth in '27, '28 and '29, -- so there will be some portion that we offset. Again, we're not trying to be coy. We're working through our budgeting process. and we will give you the firm update on our January earnings.

Sam Samad

Yes. So key takeaway, Lisa don't assume the full impact in your model, there will be an offset. We can't tell you what the offset is because we're working through our plans right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from Luke Sergott with Barclays.

Luke Sergott

Great -- and Jim, congrats on your -- on the Bruce. I just wanted to follow up on the PAMA stuff because you just said at a recent sell-side conference that you didn't think it was going to be more than $100 million impact. And then now you're talking about $125 million to $165 million after you kind of sharpen your pencils on it. Can you just talk about where that incremental headwind came from? Or what led you to further increase there?

James Davis

Yes. Look, I think we've always set a range of $100 million to $120 million, not knowing the results of the latest data collection process, which again, we believe to be flawed. There were 1,500 codes that are going to get some type of reduction. And 775 of those, Luke, are going to face the maximum 15% cut. So it wasn't an exact science that we knew until the data came out.

But there's, again, 775 that get a 15% cut 100 in total will get cut of the 150. And so there's less than 15% codes on another roughly 40 to 500, so that's how we sharpen the pencil. Now did we expect it to be 15% on 775? No, we didn't. We didn't expect the data process to come out this way. And obviously, based on the data I gave you that 76.5% of the data came from independent labs, we thought it would be a better process, but it wasn't. And we can't change that now. All we can do is push for the results. I will give you 1 prediction though today, and that is the brewers in 6 games.

Operator

Next question comes from David Westenberg with Piper Sandler.

Unknown Analyst

This is Scott on for Dave. Could you help us understand the drivers of the increase in DSO in the quarter I think you previously described the movement as time related. But can you just remind us how much of that is reflecting normal seasonality or collection timing? And also how should we think about the cadence of DSO over the next 12 months?

Sam Samad

Yes. So thank you for the question. I mean, DSOs, first of all, let's talk about a couple of things, which drive DSOs that maybe are part of your question and maybe to alleviate some of your concerns there. We look at 2 key things that are drivers of our business and our ability to collect from our patients, from our customers, and those are bad debt and what we call patient price concessions. .

Bad debt is usually what we attribute to our inability to collect from certain client bill customers, mostly hospitals and patient price concessions are the inability to collect from patients on whether it's their co-pay or if they're uninsured patients that we haven't collected from at the time of the -- at the time they come to our PSCs, for instance, then there might be a bill that they owe them that we might not be able to collect from them.

Now for those 2, bad debt and patient price concessions we have not seen any meaningful increase on both of these. Patient price concessions are flat versus same period last year. Bad debt is mostly in line with what we have seen traditionally. So there's no issues with regards to those 2. DSOs are up about 3 days since year-end. A lot of that is mix driven by some of our client bill business, which usually has longer terms on it. That doesn't mean it's higher exposure. It just means we have longer terms, and we collect on those longer terms accordingly.

There's also a nuance here with regards to less collection days in Q3 and so far this year in terms of less banking days than we had last year. So that also drives DSOs higher. In terms of what we expect, again, no meaningful impact because we are still seeing no meaningful negative impact on patient price concessions or bad debt. Those are still in line with what we saw -- what we see historically.

Operator

Our next question comes from Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI.

Elizabeth Anderson

Thanks so much for the question. Maybe one housekeeping question and one longer question. In terms of -- I heard what you said about Nova investment in terms of your expectations being stable, 3Q versus 4Q. Sorry, for the full year. Is that true within the quarters as well? And then two, if we think about PAMA, you've done a great job, obviously, being able to share with us what you know so far about the potential impact are you expecting it to have any impact on other types of pricing apart from those who just specifically price based on the CL fast?

Sam Samad

Yes. Thank you, Elizabeth. So let me start with the NOVA piece, and Jim can talk about the PAMA impact and I think you're referring to some of the health plan contracts. With regards to Nova, so let me just make sure everybody is on the same page. We expect this year that it's going to be $0.25 impact. We expect that 70% of that impact is going to be in the second half, 30% in the first half. Our expectations between Q3 and Q4 is that there's a slight ramp in Q4 versus Q3.

So if you think about that 70% in the second half, it's more tilted towards Q4 in terms of investment, which is fairly in line with the activity on the Nova project overall. As we progress through this project, we are incurring more expenses around sources that are involved and all the efforts that go into it, as we now go from design to build stage. Jim, did you want to refer to the PAMA or address...

James Davis

Yes. So again, on the impairment in fact, $120 million, which includes Medicare and straight Medicaid fee schedules that are tied to Medicare. Look, we have probably over 700, maybe even closer to 1,000 contracts with various health plan organizations. I know we're used to the big 5 or 6 in all the Blues plans, but there's a lot of various health plans out there. a very, very small minority of those contracts had some tied to the Medicare fee schedule.

Over the last 5 years or since the last -- the first hit on PAMA, our organization worked incredibly hard to make sure in all of our contracts, that language was completely taken out. And for the most part, it was. But I would call that additional -- we look at our health plan book of business every year, we're getting some price increases. We've been saying on the calls that we've been flat to slightly up. So whatever that impact is, will be worked in the construct of the entire health plan set of contract negotiations. As you know, we routinely negotiate 1/3 at 25%, 1/3 to 1/4 of all health plan contracts every year in our business. And so any addition beyond that 1% impact has worked within the contrastructe of those negotiations.

Operator

Next question comes from Kevin Caliendo with UBS. .

Kevin Caliendo

I appreciate it. I just want to talk a little bit about the organic volumes and sort of what's driving and how to think about the weather impact and HIC and the like. So organic volumes ex Fresenius and Corewell improved sequentially, rev per req came down sequentially. And I'm just wondering if there was anything related to mix and how to think about weather year-over-year, if there was any impact. I think there was no weather last year, no weather this year, if this is like a true number. And if there was anything in the mix that affected the rev rec number, which, again, I think it was closer to 3% in the first half of the year is 1.7% in the third quarter.

James Davis

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. Let me address it. So organic volume growth in the quarter, again, 5%. In Q2, it was 4.1% for the year. It's running 4.3%. You did not a shift in rev-per-req increase from Q2 to Q3 and Q2, roughly 2.9% in this quarter, 1.7%. Nothing -- here's what's driving it. As I mentioned on 1 of the questions, our growth from the hospital reference business was up significantly. It was double-digit volume growth in the quarter. What we saw in the quarter, what was driving a bunch of that growth was a lot of single test recs from some very large health systems that we're leveraging our LP(a) business or leveraging our Alzheimer's business -- and that -- and so hospital reference work in general has a very low test per act.

It's like 1.6 test per req. -- we saw that number drop slightly because, again, a lot of organizations started to leverage our capacity for some very important tests. The other thing we saw in the quarter, we haven't talked much about it, but was the cycles spurt that the volume that came our way during the third quarter. Those were a lot of single test requisition the low -- the revenue on that test is pretty low, $15, $16 or somewhere in that range.

And so that's why we saw a shift down in the growth rate of our rep pure. Again, it's still growing. It's growing at a very nice clip. It just slowed from Q2 to Q3. But again, nice volume increased sequentially Q2 to Q3 from 4.1% to 5%.

Sam Samad

So Kevin, let me add a couple of points, I think, to address the other parts of your question. I mean, first of all, just to close out on the report comment from Jim, within that 1 excluding Corewell and Fresenius, within that growth of Revparec, there is no negative price impact, okay? So I just want to make sure that's clear. Price is relatively flat, which is in line with what we've been seeing in past orders.

With regards to volume, -- it is a clean volume quarter. The 5% has no unusual items with it within it. It doesn't have any weather or mostly no weather impact. We've had a pretty I would say, good weather quarter here in Q3. So there is no negative weather impact. With regards to HICS in the quarter, we did have a 10 basis point impact from HICS and Jim mentioned that earlier. Expectation for Q4 is that we've sized it as a 10 to 20 basis point impact from HEG in Q4. But again, pretty modest impact because what we're seeing is higher acuity patients staying test bore increasing with the patients that are remaining on the exchanges.

Operator

Next question comes from Jack Meehan Wabo Research.

Jack Meehan

I want to follow up on Tyco's margin question, but looking at it sequentially. I was just surprised I think 2Q historically is usually the high watermark for the year and margins improved sequentially. So I was wondering if -- maybe you can just walk us through, is there anything that stood out for why this year kind of bucked the normal seasonality and whether there's any change in the business that we should be thinking about?

Sam Samad

Yes. Thanks, Jack, and I hope you're doing well. This is Sam. So from a sequential standpoint, yes, so we were essentially up and I'm referring to operating margins here. We were up 20 basis points versus Q2 of '26 of the past quarter. A couple of things. As we think about that, I mean, we did have the improvement in the margins on Corewell and Fresenius helping us as we go from Q2 to Q3. As we said, sequentially throughout the year, we're going to continue to improve the margin rate of those partnerships.

So it's in line with that. some SG&A leverage that we saw in Q3, some benefits on SG&A that we talked about in our prepared remarks, but really nothing that substantial. But there's also a benefit related to supplemental deferred compensation which is entirely driven by market performance. It's a mark-to-market valuation of those investments in our supplemental deferred compensation plans. We saw a hit from that in Q2, we saw really no impact -- material impact from that in Q3. So that's -- and I'll remind everybody that's a neutral EPS impact, okay? It just impacts operating margin. But -- it did help Q3 operating margins versus Q2.

So those are the main things there, Jack, nothing that's materially impactful in terms of business performance, except for the Corewell and Fresenius sequential improvement in margin that we are pleased about.

Operator

Our next question comes from Eugene Park with Baird. .

Unknown Analyst

I wanted to get back into the PAMA estimates comments. You talked about 1.3% cumulative impact on revenue from 2027 through 2029. This implies some incremental impact in 2028 and 2029. Can you talk a bit more about year 2 and year 3 impacts?

Sam Samad

Yes. Thank you for the question. We're not going to provide a breakdown right now in terms of how that breaks down between '28 and '29. Again, these are estimates. We're still going through the data and really analyzing it and getting more precise on these estimates, especially for '28 and '29, but I think what we've said captures on I would say it captures mostly the impact that we expect in those 2 years, which is a 30 basis point cumulative impact of revenues and a roughly 1% impact of revenues in 2027. .

Operator

Our next question comes from Jared Haase with William Blair.

Jared Haase

I wanted to go back to the prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about the momentum you're seeing with kidney care and some of the momentum there, even beyond Fresenius. So just really interesting to hear that. I'm wondering if you could unpack how you think about the growth opportunity for that segment of the market going forward? And then when I think about your go-to-market, does this sort of require any incremental investment in terms of maybe specialized commercial resources to sort of best go after that opportunity?

James Davis

Yes. Thanks, and good question. I think as everybody know, we took on the laboratory testing associated with dialysis testing for end-stage renal disease patients that go through Fresenius health. And what it's done, and your question is really good, it's opened up the door to a set of new relationships with a lot of nephrologists across the country, some of whom we were serving, but many of whom we were not serving -- so in fact, we have yielded a specialized sales force to call on nephrologists and offer a broad set of cardiometabolic testing. Associated with either early-stage kidney disease, mid-stage or late-stage kidney disease.

So that's why we were excited about the opportunity to begin with. And this just represents a whole new opportunity. It wasn't a segment of physicians that we routinely called on if they were part of a specialty group, sure, we called on them, but it's getting a lot more focus by a specialized channel that we have in Quest Diagnostics and it should result in an opportunities as we go into 2027.

Operator

Thank you, Jim. And I think that was our last question. Jim, any closing remarks?

James Davis

Yes. First, again, thanks for joining our call today. We certainly appreciate all your questions and continued support, and we wish you a good day ahead. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Thank you for participating in Quest Diagnostics Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. A transcript of prepared remarks on this call will be posted later today on Quest Diagnostics website at www.questdiagnostics.com. A replay of the call may be accessed online at www.questdiagnostics.com/investor or by phone at (866) 388-5361 for domestic colors or (203) 369-0416 for international callers. Telephone replays will be available from approximately 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on October 22, 2026, and until midnight Eastern Time, November 5, 2026. Goodbye.