SG Morning Brief | US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Reached, Signing June 19; Oil Crashes to $81

Weekend Wrap

The US-Iran ceasefire MOU has been reached, but not yet signed. Trump declared Saturday that the deal is "now completed" and authorized the Strait of Hormuz to "open free" with the US Navy blockade lifted immediately. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the MOU early Sunday. The formal signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland. Iran's Deputy FM said two things happen immediately: permanent ceasefire on all fronts (including Lebanon) and the US lifts its naval blockade — but Iran's commitments only take effect after the Friday signing. Nuclear issues are pushed to a 60-day phase-two negotiation. Israel nearly derailed the process by bombing Beirut suburbs one hour before the planned announcement; Trump publicly blasted Netanyahu as "lacking sense." Markets repriced instantly: WTI crashed 4% to $80.99, Brent -4% to $83.76. Nikkei 225 surged 4.5% to a record above 69,000. KOSPI opened +5%, triggering a circuit breaker. US gasoline fell below $4/gallon for the first time since April 20. Polymarket gives 69% odds of permanent peace by August 31, but only 43% that Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 15.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

The S&P 500 rose 0.50% to 7,431.46, the Nasdaq gained 0.31% to 25,888.84, and the Dow advanced 353.51 points (+0.70%) to 51,202.26. SpaceX debuted at $150, surged over 20% intraday, and closed at $160.95 (+19%) — valuing the company above $2 trillion. Musk's combined stakes total $1.147 trillion, making him the first trillionaire. For the week, all three indexes posted gains (S&P +0.65%, Nasdaq +0.70%, Dow +0.66%) despite a brutal midweek selloff.

Key Movers

SpaceX (SPCX) +19% (IPO) — SpaceX opened at $150, closed at $160.95 on its Nasdaq debut. The $75 billion raise doubled Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. Order books were 3x oversubscribed with retail taking 30% of the allocation. MSCI immediately added SPCX; Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers face $22-27 billion in forced buying, effective June 22.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070 last week. DBS is near S$62.18 and UOB near S$37.91. The Iran deal is unambiguously positive for Singapore: oil crashing to $81 eases import costs and inflation, banks benefit from the sustained rate environment, and the risk-on mood lifts the entire market. The KOSPI circuit breaker and Nikkei's 69,000 breakthrough signal Asia is repricing aggressively. Expect a strong open.

Asia Pre-Market

S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.4%, and Dow futures up 0.6% (+300 pts). WTI crude has crashed to $80.99 (-4%) and Brent to $83.76 (-4%) — the sharpest single-session drop since May. The Nikkei 225 surged 4.5% to a record above 69,000. KOSPI opened 5% higher, triggering a circuit breaker. MSCI Asia Pacific gained 2%. Bitcoin is above $65,000 (+2%) and gold up 2%.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

SpaceX options begin trading Tuesday June 16. No major earnings this week.

Week Ahead Spotlight: Warsh's First FOMC — The most consequential Fed meeting since April's 8-4 split. Warsh inherited CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6%, NFP at 172,000, and rate hike odds at 75%. The market expects a hold, but the statement language matters enormously — any hint that a hike is "under consideration" could send the 10-year above 4.7%. His press conference at 2:30 AM SGT Thursday will set the tone for Q3.

One More Thing

Oil at $81 — down from $106 three months ago. At $81, gasoline falls below $3.75 by July 4 (per GasBuddy) and CPI decelerates sharply in Q3. SPI's Innes warns this is "a framework that kicks tough issues down the road" — nuclear issues unresolved, "verification premium remains." Warsh's FOMC Wednesday becomes dramatically easier: if Brent stays below $85, the 75% hike odds collapse. Wedbush's Ives called SpaceX a "Goldilocks ending" for tech. But Polymarket gives only 43% odds that Hormuz normalizes by July 15. Peace, cheap oil, and SpaceX at $2 trillion — the most bullish backdrop since January, if the signing actually happens on Friday.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.