METALS-Copper set to end week lower as fragile ceasefire outlook, surplus view weigh

April 24 (Reuters) - Copper slipped on Friday amid lingering uncertainty over Middle East peace talks, a firmer dollar, and expectations of a global surplus in 2026.

The benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.91% to $13,233.50 a metric ton as of 0735 GMT, on track to end the week down 0.83%.

The most-active copper contract SCFcv1 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange sank 0.65% to 102,460 yuan ($14,988.52) a ton, ending the week down 0.31%.

It eased from an over seven-week high earlier this week when hopes for a peace deal between Washington and Tehran briefly lifted risk appetite.

Though the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has been extended by three weeks, the outlook for U.S.-Iran talks remained fragile, with tensions still simmering after the U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel and as Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

That kept energy prices elevated, with Brent futures LCOc1 continuing to advance, keeping inflation concerns alive and limiting investor appetite for growth-sensitive assets such as industrial metals.

A stronger dollar added to the pressure, making greenback-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The U.S. dollar index =USD held just below a more than one-week high.

Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group said on Thursday the global refined copper market is expected to flip into surplus in 2026, after it slashed the global demand growth rate, though refined copper output growth is constrained by limited concentrate availability.

Helping to limit the downside was still-strong demand in top consumer China, as evidenced by continued outflows in copper stocks monitored by SHFE.

SHFE copper stocks continued to decline, down 16.3% week on week to 201,373 tons, according to the exchange's weekly stock report on Friday. It has declined more than 50% since peaking on March 13.

Elsewhere on the LME, aluminium CMAL3 dropped 0.69%, zinc CMZN3 ticked 0.09% lower, lead CMPB3 gained 0.38%, nickel CMNI3 was little changed and tin CMSN3 lost 1.01%.

Among other SHFE metals, aluminium SAFcv1 dropped 0.78%, zinc SZNcv1 dipped 0.51%, lead SPBcv1 nudged 0.06% lower, nickel SNIcv1 surged 1.82% and tin SSNcv1 declined 0.88%.

($1 = 6.8359 Chinese yuan renminbi)