LIVE MARKETS-Nasdaq breadth measure posts rare up day, but Trump address rattles futures

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NASDAQ BREADTH MEASURE POSTS RARE UP DAY, BUT TRUMP ADDRESS RATTLES FUTURES

On Wednesday, amid hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict, the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC rose for a second straight session, bringing its two-day gain to around 5%, or its biggest such move in nearly a year.

With this, the Nasdaq's McClellan Oscillator, a breadth/momentum measure that utilizes advance/decline data to assess the number of stocks participating in an upward or downward move, scored its biggest one-day gain in more than a month.

Given this, the McClellan Summation, which is a long-term, cumulative version of the McClellan Oscillator, also rose.

Of note, on Monday, the Composite had finished down more than 13% from its October 29, 2025 record closing high. On Tuesday, the Summation ended at -4,603, or its lowest level since April 24, 2025.

It now remains to be seen if Tuesday's Summation low was a sufficiently washed-out level to essentially coincide with a Nasdaq bottom of some form. That said, Summation troughs in mid-October 2022, late October 2023, and early April 2025 were all around the same levels at -6,223, -6,239 and -5,962.

Wednesday's rise in the Summation was only its fourth daily gain since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. The Summation has not seen back-to-back up-days over this period.

And now in the wake of President Trump's Wednesday-night address in which he signaled more Iran strikes, crude oil CLc1 is surging and equity index futures are sharply lower. With E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQcv1 sliding around 1.8% in premarket trading, the Composite appears poised for a return of broad weakness at Thursday's open, putting the Summation's modest rise in jeopardy.

To add confidence in a more enduring low in the Nasdaq, bulls want to see a V-bottom reversal in the Summation, in which it vaults back above its descending 10-day moving average, potentially kicking off a "breadth thrust," or a sudden, massive surge in market participation.

(Terence Gabriel)

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